Category: Daniel Serwer
Stevenson’s army, June 15, afternoon edition
– Half of the people in each party now predict US will “cease to be a democracy”
– European opinion dividing over Ukraine.
– Having overestimated Russian military capabilities, US intelligence now wonders whether it understands Chinese military.
– Xi reaffirms support for Putin.Defense
– Marine Major urges rethinking US military manpower system.
– And an Air Force colonel suggests seeking air denial rather than air supremacy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenon’s army, June 15
As President Kennedy said, “To govern is to choose.” NYT has a good piece summarizing the conflicting views on whether to cut Trump tariffs on Chinese goods as part of the fight against inflation.
Ukraine assessments: David Ignatius emphasizes Russia’s problems. Fred Kaplan notes Russian progress.
While senior officials discuss what more to ship to Ukraine, Politico notes the practical logistical shipping and training issues that slow things down regardless.
Remember that the NDAA is not necessary for DOD to do its job. The only legal effect if there were no NDAA is that military pay couldn’t rise faster than the regular government COLA rules. Sure enough, NDAA committees are seeking to enact a huge military pay raise.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 14
Charlie isn’t the only one distracted. I’ve been failing to post while vacationing with extended family in Asheville, NC. He writes today:
I haven’t forgotten you. I’ve been busy and the news isn’t very newsworthy. Mostly more of the same — in Ukraine, where Russian artillery is laying waste the land they want to seize; in NATO, where Turkey is still a roadblock to Sweden and Finland; in the Pacific, where US & China are trading angry words. At least in Congress, there’s the drama of the Jan. 6 hearings.
Some other items: Chaos in Iraqi politics.
– WSJ says some former Afghan officials are living the high life.
– WOTR gives good reasons not to ignore Africa.
– And SAIS Resident Fellow James Mann says a new book about the founder of the John Birch society has lessons for how the GOP might deal with Donald Trump.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Only one thing is for sure
The Congressional January 6 committee Thursday previewed its compelling case against Donald Trump. He not only incited the riot that day but helped plan multiple efforts to overthrow the constitutional order. The purpose was to enable Trump to stay in office, despite having lost the election. The committee is not mandated to assess criminal liability, but it left no doubt about Trump’s intentions and moral culpability.
Will it make a difference?
Sadly, none of this will make a difference. Trump’s supporters come in many varities, but precious few care about the facts or are open to argument. They support him no matter what. While pledging allegiance to the constitution, they have no compunction about shredding it. They know full well that there was no evidence of election fraud that would change the outcome. Their resistance to acknowledging the facts is the ultimate white privilege. The Trumpians think the people who voted for Biden, especially the minorities but also their fellow travelers, shouldn’t count, so Trump really won.
The fraud next time
The January 6 crowd was crude. The next effort to block a Democrat from the White House will be far more sophisticated. It will rely on gerrymandered state legislative and Congressional districts, secretaries of state and state legislatures in battleground states who jigger the election rules, Republican governors committed to unfree and unfair elections, and a Senate that overrepresents less populated parts of the country.
Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2024, for many reasons. His personal financial and legal troubles are overwhelming. He is physically decrepit. His candidacy would arouse a massive Democratic turnout. There are younger and more energetic pretenders ready to carry his mantle. An indictment in the middle of the campaign would be catastrophic for Republicans up and down the ticket. The big money that supports Trump will want someone else.
But Trumpism lives on
The main thing for all of Trump’s supporters is to keep his legacy alive. That means continuing his racist appeal, blocking government action on climate change, epidemics, and other public challenges, interfering with women’s and LGBTQ+ rights, blocking the advance of people of color and immigrants, stopping the teaching of real history and good literature, and lowering taxes for the wealthy. Trump is a reactionary, not a conservative. He has opposed virtually every inch of social progress in the 30 years or so prior to his election. Whoever the Republican candidate is in 2024 will need to continue his radical approach, with a cooler temperament. Read Youngkin or De Santis, or someone else of their more clever ilk.
The Democrats need unity
It is far less clear what the Democrats stand for, because their party is a big tent. Despite my personal preferences, the backlash against more liberal policies on policing is obvious, but on many Democrats still want to restrain the use of excessive force. Democrats generally favor more equity, less racial bias, stronger government action to set the rules of the economic game, and more social responsibility, but that leaves lots of room for important differences. The big tent enables a broader voter base, but it also hurts voter enthusiasm. Democrats need more unity, at least in what they oppose if not in what they favor.
The outcome is uncertain
I see lots of predictions that the Democrats will take a shellacking in 2022 in both the Senate and House races, perhaps losing control of both chambers. There is good reason to predict that outcome. It is the usual fate of incumbent presidents, current polling suggests it, Republicans have done their damndest to limit the right to vote, and relatively high inflation is making Americans blanche.
That said, it is still too early to be predicting the election outcome four months hence. A downturn in inflation, a Ukrainian victory against Russia, a real end to the epidemic, and half a dozen other factors could help the Democrats, or hurt them more. Only one thing is for sure: if you support the constitution, you shouldn’t be voting Republican.
Watch this, as I can’t get it to embed here: https://uw-media.usatoday.com/embed/video/7576089001?placement=snow-embed
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Stevenson’s army, June 7
– Swedish govt survived a no confidence vote after deal with Kurdish MP.
– WSJ has more on Erdogan.
– AMLO won’t attend this week’s summit.
– India may be part of the Quad, but Walter Russell Mead notes the many differences with US
– NYT notes troubles Ukrainians have learning new weapons.
– US is bombing al-Shabaab again. When the class talks abut Congress, I’ll want you to devise a new AUMF to handle this situation.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 6
On this 78th anniversary of the allied invasion of France, YouTube has a short cut from a newsreel report later shown in US theaters and the audio of CBS radio’s reporting that day, supplemented with newsreel footage.
The Biden foreign policy team is mostly people he has known a long time. [BTW, the most collegial and leak-free team was Bush 41’s] They show consensus and cooperation but little policy innovation. If you don’t like what they agree on, you call it group think, as Peter Beinart does.
WaPo reports China is building a naval base in Cambodia.
Economist reports CCP now bans grumbling about the party.
WSJ reports the diplomatic missions the CIA director has been sent on.
Politico has background on this week’s Latin American summit
Morning Consult compares what China has been doing in the region..
AP questions how long Ukraine can fight.
And a tweet shows the battlefield.
New WSJ poll shows Americans are pretty sour about things.
BusinessInsider notes Hill staff can double dip, working for Congress and campaigns.
NYT’s Charles Blow has good career advice, applicable far beyond his journalism. I’d say the same to people working on the Hill.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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