The International Institute for Strategic Studies hosted a panel of experts on Iran’s Regional Posture October 11. The panel consisted of Dina Esfandiary, fellow at the Century Foundation, Ambassador Barbara A. Leaf, former ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and visiting fellow at the Washington Institute, and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director of the International Crisis Group.
Panelists revisited the nature and role of Iran today, dissecting Iran’s motivations, threats, and constraints, beyond traditional perspectives that privilege analyses based on American interests. With ethno-sectarian conflicts raging in Syria and Yemen as well as a tense political transition in Iraq, the Saudi-led Gulf states and Iran, the region’s major actors, have been embroiled in a competition of political and strategic influence.
But is it that simple? Esfandiary sought to move beyond polarity. She pointed out that Iran is not simply vying for power, but seeks to preserve its territorial integrity against Western and Gulf nations it views as aggressive. As a main center of Shi’a Islam, Iran sees itself as entitled to regional influence. Esfandiary elaborated that while religion was a foreign policy driver for the post-Revolution state’s early years, the Iranian government now leans towards nationalism as a better way to unify the nation’s people and frame its foreign policy endeavors. Elaborating on this point, Leaf said that Iran’s posture should be understood as an offensive defense, a response to the US presence and support of both the Israelis and the Saudis, which it sees as a threats to its territorial integrity and legitimate involvement in Arab affairs.
Iraq, Esfandiary said, is Iran’s highest regional priority. Tehran seeks a central government in Baghdad aligned with its interests. However, with the election of Barham Salih as Iraq’s new President, and his selection of Adel Abdul Mahdi as Prime Minister, many analysts have signaled a turn in Iraq away from the rigid ethno-sectarian politics that have dominated the post-invasion landscape. With many Iraqis disillusioned by dysfunctional governance resulting from proxy politics, Iran’s ability to sway the new government’s formation and the future of the nation’s politics are limited. Esfandiary further identified the Syrian civil conflict as Iran’s second priority, and the conflict in Yemen as its last priority, questioning whether Iran has a long-term strategic goal in Yemen at all. Leaf agreed, with Iraq as Iran’s greatest concern given the election year.
Invoking Iran’s Hezbollah model, Leaf listed the three major instruments in Iran’s toolbox:
- Creating and directing splintered proxy groups, preferably local actors, to shape civil conflicts as Tehran sees fit. In particular, supporting and directing Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq.
- Increasing its defense and intelligence architecture in Syria, part of its corridor to Israel and the Mediterranean.
- Exploiting disordered Arab states with sizeable Shi’a minorities.
Vaez added Iran’s nuclear program as another instrument of the state’s offensive defense strategy in the region: a deterrent to nuclear Israel and the aggressive Gulf states, all supported by the US.
Underscoring the constraints of current containment policies, Vaez underlined that Trump was misguided in withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. While the goal is to deprive Iran of resources through sanctions, Iran’s regional proxy operations are not strongly correlated to sanctions, citing 2011 as a year in which Iran was able to expand its proxy operations while under increased pressure from multilateral sanctions.
With another round of harsher sanctions going into effect on November 4, Vaez fears that in the unlikely scenario of effective sanctions, Iran’s political system and elite will welcome a crisis, whipping up nationalist sentiment and acting in a less risk-averse manner throughout the region. Leaf, who submitted testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Subcomittee on Terrorism, Non-Proliferation, and Trade in support of sanctions, brought up this fear in encouraging the committee to avoid mistiming sanctions, lest they strengthen Iranian nationalism.
For Esfandiary, the Gulf Arab states’ insistence that Iran pull out as a precondition for negotiations is one of the biggest constraints in reducing conflicts in Yemen and Syria. She argued that Yemen could have been ideal for negotiations with Iran, which has made it clear it is willing to negotiate. Leaf echoed this sentiment, stating that while the fractured Gulf states have tried to bring the Houthis to the negotiating table via Oman, only Tehran can succeed. Iran has been reckless in supporting the Houthis, rapidly transferring military training and technology to them. But the Houthis are independent, often operating against Iranian wishes as in their capture of both Sa’ana and Aden. Their relationship to Iran is very different from that of Hezbollah or other proxies. Further recklessness on the part of the Houthis, such as attacks on commercial ships, could be problematic for Iran.
All three panelists agreed that Iran’s image in the international sphere has improved significantly, regardless of its proxy activities. Esfandiary
and Vaez both pointed to the European Union’s effort to bypass US sanctions as well as the ICJ ruling in favor of Iran as indicators of a recovering international image. Despite the negative domestic impact of the war in Syria and Iraqi resistance to Iranian meddling, Iran appears uninterested in negotiating with the US in any capacity. Tehran instead is emphasizing its relationships with the EU, China, and Russia. Beijing and Moscow are especially important and have a higher level of familiarity with the Iranian economy than their Western counterparts.
Ultimately, Vaez warned of the need for a more inclusive security and intelligence architecture in the Middle East. The region needs a long-term strategy to escape the asymmetry and escalating armament in the region.
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1. A new dawn for protectionism? From trade wars to mega-regional trade agreements | Monday, October 8, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Brookings Institution | 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The future of the rules-based trading system has never looked more uncertain. Due to negotiation paralysis at the World Trade Organization, the rulebook on trade and investment has not been updated in nearly 25 years. There is deep concern that the actions of the two largest economies in the world may further strain the multilateral trading system. China’s rise has not seen the emergence of a market-driven economy. Rather, its market distorting policies have created major trade irritants in areas such as overcapacity for steel production and intellectual property theft. The Trump administration is calling for a complete reset of United States trade policy, skeptical of multilateral trade agreements and the World Trade Organization. It has reverted to managed trade practices and the tariff is its tool of choice. The tariff war that the United States and China are currently engaged in risks escalation and may prove difficult to wind down any time soon.
However, other countries are doubling down on multilateral trade liberalization efforts, producing a series of ambitious mega trade agreements. Japan and the European Union have been at the forefront of this effort, recently signing a trade agreement that covers a third of world GDP and will eliminate on almost all tariffs between them. Japan also led the effort to rescue the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, which is expected to go into effect next year. Against this backdrop, reform of the World Trade Organization has gained greater urgency.
On October 8, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies will host a panel of experts to examine the challenges facing the rules-based trading system in this geopolitical moment. They will discuss how we arrived at this critical juncture with protectionism on the rise, the parallels to previous eras of protectionist backsliding, and the survival of the World Trade Organization and what can be done to reform it. They will also address potential off-ramps for the U.S.-China trade war, how to prevent major rifts between the United States and its trade and security allies, and the role that Japan and others can play in sustaining the rules-based trading system.
Speakers:
Mireya Solis: Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Edward Allen: Bernard L. Schwartz Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Soumaya Keynes: U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist
Toshihiro Nakayama: Professor, Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University
2. The forgotten Americans: An economic agenda for a divided nation | Wednesday, October 10, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 4:00 pm | Brookings Institution | 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Widening inequality and the loss of jobs to trade and technology has left a significant portion of the American workforce disenfranchised and skeptical of governments and corporations alike. These economic shifts are changing what it means—and feels like—to be middle class in America.
On October 10, the Future of the Middle Class Initiative at Brookings will host Governors John Hickenlooper (D-Col.) and John Kasich (R-Ohio) for an event marking the launch of a new book by Brookings Senior Fellow Isabel Sawhill, “The Forgotten Americans: An Economic Agenda for a Divided Nation.”
The event will feature a conversation with Governors Hickenlooper and Kasich, moderated by Brookings Senior Fellow Richard Reeves. The governors will take questions from the audience.
After the governors’ discussion, Sawhill will present her new policy agenda for advancing the economic interests of a group she calls “the forgotten Americans.” The event will conclude with a panel of experts responding to Sawhill’s proposals. Panelists will take audience questions.
Speakers
John R. Allen: President, Brookings Institution
Richard R. Reeves: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies; Director, Future of the Middle Class Initiative
The Hon. John Hickenlooper: Governor, State of Colorado
The Hon. John Kasich: Governor, State of Ohioc
Isabel V. Sawhill: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies; Center on Children and Families
Panel Discussion: Elaine Kamarck, Jared Bernstein, Bill Kristol, Ruth Marcus, and Eric Rodriguez
3. Is a sovereign Palestine still possible? | Thursday, October 11, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 2:00 pm | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
What will the recent changes in U.S. policy—including recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, terminating assistance to Palestinians and UNRWA, and closing the Palestinian representative office in Washington—mean for the future of U.S.-Palestinian relations and the Palestinian national project? Will the accelerated pace of settlement construction and attempts to normalize Israeli control over the occupied Palestinian territory create irreversible realities with long-term ramifications for Palestinian self-determination and regional security?
Please join Carnegie for a discussion with Hanan Ashrawi, Robert Malley, and Daniel Levy. Michele Dunne will moderate.
Speakers
Hanan Ashrawi is a member of the PLO Executive Committee and the Palestinian Legislative Council and is a writer, activist and scholar.
Daniel Levy is the president of the US/Middle East Peace Project (USMEPP) and former senior adviser to Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and justice minister Yossi Beilin.
Robert Malley is president and CEO of the International Crisis Group and former special assistant to U.S. president Barack Obama and senior adviser for the Counter-ISIL Campaign.
Michele Dunne is the director and senior fellow of the Carnegie Middle East Program.
4. Tweaks or Transformation? New Models and Strategies for Tackling Global Challenges | Thursday, October 11, 2018 | 12:30 pm – 2:30 pm | Stimson Center | 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Floor Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Stimson Center, UNA National Capital Area, and the Global Challenges Foundation (GCF) are co-hosting a public discussion on the future of global governance. The aim is to reflect on lessons learned from previous reform, innovation, and renewal efforts, to draw attention to new initiatives, and to demonstrate ways that those interested in contributing to reform can become engaged in the movement. The GCF supports risk awareness and facilitates governance innovation aimed at mitigating global catastrophic risks.
Speakers
Brian Finlay, President and CEO, The Stimson Center (Welcome)
Fredrik Karlsson, Executive Director, Global Challenges Foundation (Introduction of the Global Challenges Foundation and New Shape Process)
Panel Discussion With:
Bruce Jones, Vice-President and Director of the Foreign Policy Program, Brookings
Augusto Lopez-Carlos, Senior Fellow, Edmund Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University (on leave from the World Bank)
Brett Schaeffer, Jay Kingham Senior Research Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs, The Heritage Foundation
Kate Sullivan, Head of Partnerships, Global Challenges Foundation
Megan Roberts, Deputy Director for Policy Planning, United Nations Foundation (co-moderator)
Richard Ponzio, Director, Just Security 2020 Program and co-chair, UNA-NCA Peace & Security Committee, The Stimson Center (co-moderator).
5. China-Vatican Relations and Religious Freedom in China | Thursday, October 11, 2018 | 12:30 pm – 2:00 pm | Hudson Institute | 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
The Vatican recently reached a historic agreement with China when it allowed the Chinese government to appoint Catholic bishops in exchange for Beijing acknowledging the Pope as the leader of the Catholic church. On October 11, Hudson Institute will host a discussion to consider papal and Chinese motives for the deal, its diplomatic consequences, and the history of the Vatican’s relations with authoritarian communist nations. While additional details remain unclear, the agreement represents the first major change in relations between the Vatican and China since 1951 when the two states ended diplomatic relations.
Panelists will include Nina Shea, a Hudson Institute senior fellow and director of the Center for Religious Freedom; Daniel Mark, former chairman of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom; and Ted Lipien, president and executive director at FreeMediaOnline.org. The discussion will be moderated by Seth Cropsey, a Hudson senior fellow and director of the Center for American Seapower.
Speakers:
Nina Shea: Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Religious Freedom, Hudson Institute
Daniel Mark: Former Chairman, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom
Seth Crospey: Senior Fellow and Director, Center for American Seapower, Hudson Institute
Ted Lipien: President and Executive Director, FreeMediaOnline.org
6. Will Brazil Go Right or Left? | Friday, October 12, 2018 | 10:00 am – 12:00 pm | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004-3027 | Register Here
In light of polling for the first round of the election on October 7th, it seems clear that the country will face a stark choice in the presidential runoff between far-right Congressman Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist former mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad. The presidential race has been characterized by an environment of fear and political intolerance. Yet the critical challenges that will confront the victor demand moderation and an ability to appeal to the majority of Brazilians who fall closer to the middle than the extremes of the political spectrum. Given the deteriorating fiscal situation, the next government will need to act quickly to reassure Brazilians and the world that it is up to the task—a task made all the more challenging by the deep partisan divide and widespread popular frustration with the failed political system and political leaders.
Join the Brazil Institute on October 12th for a discussion of potential economic and political scenarios based on the two final presidential candidates, and a look at what might lie ahead for Brazil after the end of this divisive election cycle.
Speakers
Paulo Sotero: Director, Brazil Institute
Fernando Rodrigues: Executive Director, Poder360
Antonio Britto: Board Member, Brazil Institute Advisory Council
Monica de Bolle: Director of the Latin America Program, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
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1. Tunisia: Justice in Transition | Tuesday, October 2, 2018 | 9:30 am – 11:30 am | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Please join the Carnegie Middle East Program for a screening of the documentary, Tunisia: Justice in Transition. The film tracks the trajectory of Tunisia’s Truth and Dignity Commission, established in 2013 to address the crimes of the Ben Ali and Bourguiba regimes. It includes interviews with victim’s families, human rights activists, and political actors to explain the Commission’s rocky path over the past five years.
Following the screening, Sarah Yerkes will moderate a discussion on the status of transitional justice in Tunisia today with one of the film’s creators, Ricard Gonzalez, and Salwa El Gantri.
Speakers:
Salwa El Gantri is the head of Tunisia Office for the International Center for Transitional Justice. She is an expert in gender and transitional justice, and has more than twelve years of experience in the democracy, human rights, and transitional justice fields.
Ricard Gonzalez is a journalist and political scientist. He has worked as a correspondent in Washington, DC, Cairo, and Tunis for El Mundo, El País, and Ara.
Sarah Yerkes is a fellow is a fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on Tunisia’s political, economic, and security developments as well as state-society relations in the Middle East and North Africa.
2. Is Russia Becoming Central Asia’s Near Abroad? | Tuesday, October 2, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Russia’s relationship to Central Asia has always been distinctive and ambiguous, in contrast to its attitude toward both Ukraine and the Caucasus. Only in the twentieth century did it develop a deep sense of mission there, and then only at the hands of a small number of ideologues.
Today, Central Asia is fast recovering its traditional regional spirit, which increasingly impacts its former imperial ruler. As this happens, Russia, while remaining a force to be reckoned with in Central Asia, is also becoming an object of Central Asian geopolitical and cultural influence. Hence the notion of Russia as Central Asia’s “near abroad.”
The talk will be a Distinguished Speaker Lecture with S. Frederick Starr, Founding Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program and a Professor at John Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.
3. China’s Alliance with North Korea and the Soviet Union: A Conversation with China’s Leading Historians | Thursday, October 4, 2018 | 3:30 pm – 5:00 pm | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
The Wilson Center’s History and Public Policy Program will be hosting China’s three leading diplomatic historians for a discussion about the history and present day relevance of China’s Cold War-era relations with North Korea and the Soviet Union.A Misunderstood Friendship: Mao Zedong, Kim Il-sung, and Sino-North Korean Relations, 1949–1976, co-authored by Dr. Zhihua Shen and Dr. Yafeng Xia, is the first book-length history of the China-DPRK relationship to appear in English. Shen and Xia draw on previously untapped primary source materials to offer a unique account of the China-North Korean relationship, uncovering tensions and rivalries that shed new light on the ties between these two Communist East Asian nations. They unravel the twists and turns in high-level diplomacy between China and North Korea from the late 1940s to the death of Mao Zedong in 1976, and reveal that the tensions that currently plague the alliance between the two countries have been present from the very beginning of the relationship.
Mao and the Sino–Soviet Split, 1959-1973: A New History, co-authored by Dr. Danhui Li and Dr. Yafeng Xia, synthesizes over 20 years of research on the subject by the authors and offers a comprehensive look at the Sino-Soviet split from 1959, when visible cracks appeared in the Sino-Soviet alliance, to 1973, when China’s foreign policy changed from an “alliance with the Soviet Union to oppose the United States” to “aligning with the United States to oppose the Soviet Union.”
The authors will be joined by commentator Dr. Gregg A. Brazinksy and moderator Dr. Christian Ostermann
Speakers:
Zhihua Shen is the director of the Center for Cold War International History Studies at East China Normal University, Shanghai, and the author of a number of major Chinese-language works on Cold War history.
Danhui Li is Professor of History at Institute for Studies of China’s Neighboring Countries and Regions, East China Normal University, editor-in-chief of two academic journals: Lengzhan guojishi yanjiu (Cold War International History Studies), and Bianjiang yu zhoubian wenti yanjiu (Studies of Borderlands and Neighboring Regions). A leading authority on CCP’s external relations during the Cold War, she has published extensively on Sino-Soviet relations and Sino-Vietnamese relations during the Indochina War (in Chinese, Russian and English).
Yafeng Xia is Professor of History at Long Island University in New York and Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Studies of China’s Neighboring Countries and Regions at East China Normal University in Shanghai. A former Wilson Center fellow and public policy scholar, he is the author of numerous books on Chinese Cold War history.
Gregg A. Brazinsky is professor of history and international affairs at The George Washington University. He is the author of Winning the Third World: Sino-American Rivalry during the Cold War (Chapel Hill: UNC Press, 2017), and of Nation Building in South Korea: Korean, Americans, and the Making of a Democracy (Chapel Hill: UNC Press, 2007).
4. LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media (DC Launch) | Thursday, October 4, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 2:00 pm | New America Foundation | 740 15th St NW #900 Washington, D.C. 20005 | Register Here
In an age of livestreamed terrorist attacks and viral misinformation, a new pocket-sized battleground has emerged.
Through the weaponization of social media, the internet has transformed war and politics. Terrorists livestream their attacks, “Twitter wars” produce real world casualties, and viral misinformation alters not just the result of battles, but the very fate of nations.
In their new book LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media, authors Peter W. Singer and Emerson T. Brooking study what social media has been doing to politics, news, and war around the world, drawing upon everything from historic cases to the latest in AI and machine intelligence. They track dozens of conflicts in every corner of the globe, studying the spread of YouTube battle clips, a plague of Nazi-sympathizing cartoon frogs, and even enlist in a digital army themselves.
Join New America for a conversation moderated by Anne-Marie Slaughter, President and CEO of the Foundation, with the authors as they tackle the questions that arose during their five years of research: What can be kept secret in a world of networks? Does social media expose the truth or bury it? And what role do ordinary people now play in international conflicts?
5. Yemen’s Path Forward | Thursday, October 4th, 2018 | 1:00 pm – 4:00 pm | Middle East Institute | 529 14th St NW Washington, DC 20045 | Register Here
Three years into Yemen’s civil war, the country continues to see severe humanitarian devastation, widespread food insecurity, and lack of economic access, against the backdrop of an increasingly complex geopolitical environment. An intensification of fighting in Hodeidah and elsewhere in the country has added to the human costs of the conflict and threatens to become catastrophic. Increasingly, Yemenis are war-weary and anxious to see progress on the UN-led negotiating process intended to end the fighting and restore the peaceful transition interrupted three years ago.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a half-day conference to assess the priorities for ending the conflict and scenarios to move forward. This conference will convene two panels and a keynote address to assess urgent priorities and potential pathways forward for Yemen.
Speakers:
Bruce Abrams assumed duties as deputy assistant administrator in USAID’s Middle East Bureau in January 2017. His portfolio includes USAID programs in Yemen, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, the technical support team and the Middle East Regional Platform. Abrams joined the Middle East bureau after serving as deputy mission director in USAID Zimbabwe.
Sama’a Al-Hamdani is an independent researcher and analyst focusing on Yemen. She is currently a visting fellow at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS) at Georgetown University and a research fellow at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies (SCSS). Al-Hamdani is also the director of the Yemen Cultural Institute for Heritage and the Arts (YCIHA), a nonprofit based in Washington DC dedicated to Yemeni arts and heritage.
Marcia Biggs is a special correspondent for PBS NewsHour, for whom she has recently won a Gracie Allen Award, a First Place National Headliner Award, and a New York Festivals World Medal. Her expertise lies in the Arab world, with over a decade of experience in the Middle East, five years of which were spent living in Lebanon. Most recently, she became one of the few television journalists to cover the crisis in Yemen, which she did in a four part series for PBS, “Inside Yemen.”
Ambassador Ahmed Awad Bin Mubarak assumed his duties as the ambassador of the Republic of Yemen to the United States in August 2015. Formerly, Ambassador Bin Mubarak was the director of the presidential office and chief of staff. Prior to taking up his appointment as the director, Ambassador Bin Mubarak was appointed on January 2013 secretary general of Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference (NDC), leading a team of over 120 staff facilitating the mediation process among the participating 565 delegates, and providing technical assistance to NDC working groups.
Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein is director for government relations, policy and programs at MEI. He retired from the U.S. Foreign Service in May 2016 after a 41-year career with the personal rank of career minister. As a diplomat he served in nine overseas postings, including three tours of duty in Pakistan, as well as assignments in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Lebanon, Jerusalem, and Tunisia. In 2010, President Obama appointed Amb. Feierstein U.S. Ambassador to Yemen, where he served until 2013. From 2013 until his retirement, Amb. Feierstein was principal deputy assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern affairs.
Latifa Jamel is the chairperson of Justice for Women and Children. Originally from Taiz, she is a Yemeni journalist and political activist. She served as board members in Yemen Aid, International Council of Rights and Freedoms, and Yemeni American Coalition. She previously worked as an academic advisor and head of Social Studies department in local schools within Taiz.
Timothy Lenderking is the deputy assistant secretary of state for Arabian Gulf affairs in the Near East Bureau at the U.S. Department of State. He is a career member of the senior Foreign Service. Lenderking served previously as the deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from 2013-2016. He served as the director of the Pakistan office at the Department of State from 2010-2013. From 2008-2010, Lenderking completed two tours in Baghdad, the first as the senior democracy advisor at the US Embassy, and the second as the policy advisor to LTG Charles Jacoby, Commanding General of Multi-National Forces Iraq (MNF-I), based at Camp Victory.
6. The Limits of Punishment: Transitional Justice and Violent Extremism | Friday, October 5th, 2018 | 10:30 am – 12:00 pm | Brookings Institution | 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
In countries where jihadi groups have gained control over territory and populations, states face the challenge of dealing with individuals accused of association with those groups. Governments have too often responded in heavy-handed ways, penalizing broad segments of local populations suspected of having supported the group, often on the basis of thin or non-existent evidence. Such excessively punitive and dragnet approaches risk backfiring by exacerbating local grievances, conflating victims with perpetrators, and laying the groundwork for future violence.
On October 5, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings and the United Nations University’s Centre for Policy Research (UNU-CPR) will present a discussion of alternative strategies and justice issues for countries affected by jihadi violence. Experts will present the findings of three fieldwork-based case studies of Nigeria, Somalia, and Iraq, which analyze these states’ approaches to accountability and rehabilitation of Boko Haram, al-Shabab, and Islamic State affiliates. Panelists will also discuss the potential application of transitional justice tools; conditional amnesties; defectors programs; and disarmament, demobilization, and rehabilitation approaches to transitions away from conflict in such settings.
Panelists will include Lana Baydas, an independent human rights expert; Vanda Felbab-Brown, senior fellow with the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence at Brookings; and Cale Salih, research officer at UNU-CPR. Landry Signé, a David M. Rubenstein Fellow in the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings, will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion. After the program, panelists will take questions from the audience.
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Tags :
Bourguiba, China, Civil War, Democracy and Rule of Law, Extremism, North Korea, Russia, Social Media, Soviet Union, Syria, Tunisia, United States, Yemen
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