Category: Uncategorized
Culture, religion, and education in Ukraine
I’ve had a chance now to sample–in tiny doses–Kyiv’s cultural, religious, and educational institutions. Some would be impressive even without the war. But conflict makes it doubly difficult to keep high standards. Money is short and people have other things to think about. We shouldn’t expect world class museums, performances, and universities. When we find them, they merit not only praise but support.
The internet I am using is too slow to upload pictures for this post. I’ll try to do that when I am in a better cyber environment.
A fine opera house
I particularly enjoyed a performance of Semen Gulak-Artemovskiy’s Zaporozhian Beyond The Danube. It’s not the greatest 19th century opera, but it has significance for our time. It concerns Cossacks in Ottoman captivity who want to return to their Zaporozhian homestead. Today, part of that oblast is in Russian hands. Wikipedia tells me the opera premiered in 1863 in Russian in St. Petersburg, but today it is normally performed in Ukrainian, as in Kyiv. The opera house is a handsome one of the traditional variety.
The performance was very good. One or two the singers didn’t seem quite up to their roles, but the chorus and dancers were great. The choreography was mostly chic traditional, but done with real flare. The capacity of humans to defy gravity long enough to twirl gracefully three times in the air always amazes me. I caught no outward manifestations of nationalist sentiment in the audience or cast. But the plot certainly tugs at the heart strings under current circumstances. And yes, it’s a comedy, so the Cossacks do get to go home.
Museums
The National History Museum was another high point. I found it hard to resist its juxtaposition of a weapons exposition with a show featuring haute couture. Best was the 10th century cross archaeologists excavated from the church Volodomyr the Great founded after his conversion in 988. This and the many other objects found there disprove President Putin’s claim that Russia’s czars founded the Rus. It was more than three hundred years later that Moscow emerged as a governing center.
I can’t compliment the Kyiv Picture Gallery, where I viewed a colorful exhibit by a forgettable trans-Carparthian painter. I think the Khanenko Museum down the street was where I should have gone. The exhibit of ancient coinage and modern paper money at the gargantuan Ukrainian House only had labels in Ukrainian. But I gather it aimed to demonstrate the continuity of Ukrainian statehood.
Religion gets shorter shrift
Ukrainians mostly regard themselves as Orthodox Christians of one variety or another. Seventy per cent are self-avowed “believers.” The Russian Orthodox Patriarchate is now nominally illegal, but some churchmen are still loyal to it. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which exists in two institutional forms, is dominant. The Greek Catholic Church, which the Soviets prohibited, has revived. Originally “Uniate,” it recognizes the authority of the Pope and aims to bridge the gap between Orthodoxy and Roman Catholicism.
Ukrainians told me they are not as devout as many Poles and some Russians. They identify as Orthodox more because of family tradition and national culture than personal faith. But during services the orthodox churches see some prayerful traffic while the service proceeds behind the iconostasis barrier.
The St. Sophia complex, which originated in the 11th century, and St. Andrews, designed in the mid-18th century by Italian architect Bartolomeo Rastrelli, are impressive. The Soviets put them to other uses. The state now administers them. St. Andrews and the park below have spectacular views over the Dnieper River. The St. Sophia bell tower has a view over much of the center of Kyiv.
Also impressive is the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra religious complex. A current exhibit there of Crimean artifacts underlines its relationship to Ukrainian history and culture.
The Jews seem ok
What remains of the Jewish community feels fairly comfortable in contemporary Ukraine. Some have chosen, wisely, to focus on ecumenical humanitarian work rather than serving only the Jewish community. The President comes from a Jewish family, though he himself has not been active. The community is, as often, fragmented. The Orthodox are dominant, but there is a Reform congregation.
Babyn Yar, where the Nazis shot more than 33,000 people in late September 1941, is amply memorialized. Maybe overly so. The monuments there seemed less than coherent to me. Two big ones were too explicit for my tastes, but this haunting “symbolic” synagogue hit my chords.
Education is less valued
Here I can only repeat what some Ukrainians have told me. Education is not highly valued in the society, especially now with the war on. English is taught from first grade, but few people on the street speak more than a few words. The quality of the state universities is not high. Two historically important ones get low grades. Their professors’ salaries are low.
The Kyiv School of Economics, where I’ve been speaking is the exception. Founded only in 1996 and struggling even a decade ago, KSE has raised a lot of private and foreign money. It now sits in a building with a clever internal design a few miles from central Kyiv. But it plans to move at some point to terrain and buildings it has purchased near the Dnieper. By all reports, it pays its professors much better than the other universities in town and subsidizes its students.
The result is an institution that is generating some of the best minds and technocratic work in the country. Its social sciences department chose to be accredited in Germany rather than Ukraine. That is an option open to other Ukrainian institutions but not generally used. KSE also has a thinktank concerned with current issues like how to tighten the EU sanctions on Russia. They are also trying to correct World Bank statistics on Ukraine’s GDP.
Next up
I attended the Kyiv Security Forum. Next up will be some wisdom I gathered there.
Heading for Kyiv, thinking about post-war
I’m traveling to Kyiv this week to give presentations at the Kyiv School of Economics on preparing for post-war transition. I don’t think that is likely soon. But whenever it happens, I hope readiness for it will improve the prospects of success. I’ll also be trying to understand how Ukrainians are thinking about the war and prospects for peace. That is in preparation for the revision of my 2019 book. From War to Peace included a rudimentary discussion of Ukraine in the final chapter. For the 2027 edition, I hope to do much better. I’ve already written a chapter on the country’s long and tortured history. Now it’s time to understand its present and future.
I undertook this trip on my own initiative. Initially I thought I would try for a Fulbright. But Fulbright Ukraine was closed even before the post-January 20 evisceration of the US government. Now who knows when, or ever, Fulbright will reopen. Having liberated myself from classroom teaching, I am free to travel whenever. The doctoral students I supervise are mostly in touch via Zoom, which works better for individuals than classes. Best to just go, not wait on unknowns.
The video above is from a recent appearance of Economics Nobelist James Robinson at KSE. I doubt he is right about Ukraine lacking a national project. But that will be one of the questions I’ll be probing over the next few weeks when talking with Ukrainians.
No it’s not safe
Security is job #1. Kyiv isn’t suffering as much as some of the front line cities like Kharkiv and Kherson. But I gather there are daily/nightly barrages of drones and missiles, some of which get through.
The sky is big, as is the city. The situation is unlike Sarajevo, where you had to know where to walk so you weren’t visible to the snipers. It’s more like Tirana during its 1997 chaos. There gunfire was frequent but random (and much smaller caliber than in Kyiv). I suppose I’ll learn more when there about which areas and times are more dangerous than others. But it is best to assume nothing is safe, especially at night.
Preparations are complicated
I’ve talked with people who have been to Kyiv recently. But in a conflict zone you never know what is available and what isn’t. So I’ll try to take everything I might conceivably need. That isn’t easy if you are determined not to check bags. Best to keep it all in tow, but to assume that the bigger bag could get separated.
So pills, computer, mouse, wires, chargers, power supplies, the right plugs. Health and communications are vital. All have to fit in along with enough underwear to last at least half the stay in Kyiv. That way I won’t have to do laundry more than once. It’s cooler in Kyiv than in DC, which means a few warmer things that take up far too much room. I’ll wear the bulkier stuff.
I’ve got my powerpoint presentations in draft. Of course they’ll need changes once I get a better feel for the situation. Flexibility and adaptability are vital.
Talking with people at war
Wartime is hard and instructive. People in Kyiv have suffered through more than three years of bombardment. That’s on top of the seven years since Russia seized Crimea and invaded southeastern Ukraine. In my talks, I need to give them an opportunity to express themselves. They know better than I do what their post-war goals will be.
I’ll be doing that through what some of you will know as a “yellow sticky” exercise. I’ll ask participants to write their top priorities for after the war on yellow stickies. Then I’ll group them on a wall or whiteboard. Ukrainian priorities may differ from those I expect. So I’ll need to be mentally agile and ready to adjust my presentation appropriately.
The orange elephant in the room
The Ukrainians will wonder what’s going on in DC, which under Biden was Kyiv’s best friend. I’ll tell them what I understand:
- President Trump has aligned himself with President Putin.
- Nevertheless the American people want to send more support to Ukraine:

Robinson has it right: American politicians have taken an illiberal turn. But American popular sentiment is still pro-Ukraine. This contradiction won’t be satisfying to Ukrainians, who have suffered mightily and have good reason to be disappointed.
They may press me on why Trump supports Putin. I can imagine lots of reasons:
- personal financial gain,
- blackmail for past behavior,
- gratitude for electoral support,
- admiration for Putin’s autocratic success,
- genuine (but sorely mistaken) conviction that Russia can be weaned from alignment with China, Iran, and other US adversaries.
I suspect all have some validity. But there is precious little evidence which factor is primary and which are secondary. I think we’ll know some day. But it won’t be soon.
Post-war Ukraine
The main challenge for me is to help Ukrainians think about their country post-war. Too many countries fight wars only to be disappointed, even when they win. That has been the case for Ukraine in the many past wars conducted on its territory. This war should end with a prosperous, democratic Ukraine irreversibly on its way into the European Union. If I can contribute to that goal, my trip will be worthwhile.
It’s still a long road to change

I was pleased today to spend an hour and a half or so among the people at the Sylvan Theater behind the Washington Monument. The theme was “hands off.” That meant off human rights, women’s bodies, science, government workers, the economy, social security, medicare, medicaid, public lands, veterans. The list was long, the crowd was calm, and the chanting was loud. F-Elon was the sentiment. The only international issues I saw cited were tariffs and Ukraine, whose flag dotted the crowd. T
he participants were overwhelmingly white and Asian, with relatively few Blacks and Browns. I saw few teens. Most seemed in their twenties and up, including a lot of oldsters like me. I can only guess at numbers, but it seemed a lot more than the 20,000 that were expected.
Will it make a difference?
Over a thousand cities hosted comparable events today. The resistance to Trump is building. It’s been a long time since the public square has seen so many events of this sort. People are riled up. But also self-controlled. They don’t want a clash with the police. Virtually none were in the crowd today, but there were police cars nearby blocking traffic.
With any sort of normal American administration, this kind of public protest would have some impact. But this is not a normal administration. These are defiant, cruel people who are convinced of their own virtue and don’t listen to reasonable argument. The newly installed fences surrounding the White House today were appropriate. They keep ideas out and the President in. He is out of touch with those who don’t support him.
It will take a lot more to make a difference. As the Republicans control both Houses of Congress, some focus on their more vulnerable members could be useful. Maine Senator Collins and Alaska Senator Murkowski fake discomfort with Trump, but they don’t vote against him. Time to make them feel some heat.
A general strike is a possibility. I don’t think I remember one, even in the raucous civil rights/Vietnam war era. But with the economy headed into a screeching slowdown, it may make some sense. The tariffs have already made the stock market take a big bite out of retirement savings. I expect the screams about that to get louder.
The courts are crucial
For now though, the first line of opposition to the Trump Administration is in the courts. There Trump has been mostly losing. But even when he loses much damage has already been done, as with USAID. It is time for the temporary restraining orders to become permanent. And for government officials who defy the courts to be held in contempt. The Supreme Court will of course lean in Trump’s direction. They know what he wants them to do. And at least three if not four will do it no matter what.
The Republicans are threatening to impeach judges who issue broadly applicable orders. That is just grandstanding. They don’t have the 2/3rds majority in the Senate to get it done. But the threat will make some judges cautious and slow. What we need is bold and fast.
But only the November 2026 election promises change
But I don’t expect the opposition to Trump to win any big political fights this year. The President has a united and loyal party determined to do his capricious and ill-advised will. It is only the November 2026 election that promises real relief. It seems a long way off. A lot can happen in 18 months. Let’s hope at least some of it shows the American people what a colossal mistake they’ve made.
The agreement they didn’t sign
I wrote most of this piece before today’s meeting. The analysis of the agreement is I think correct, even if OBE.
The US-Ukraine minerals deal were supposed to sign today has one great virtue. There are no obvious no-no’s, like limits on its territorial extent or obligations Ukraine will find onerous. It really doesn’t constitute what President Trump said he wanted, which was payback for US assistance. It does make Ukraine devote half its future natural resource revenue to the joint fund the agreement promises. But that is no loss since the fund is devoted exclusively to investments in Ukraine.
But if there are no glaring errors, it still doesn’t constitute a “devastating blow” to Putin. The devil is in the details, which haven’t been negotiated yet. Does this agreement apply to all of Ukraine’s sovereign territory as of 2014, before the first Russian intervention? Can the US turn around and negotiate a similar agreement with Russia that applies to territory Moscow now controls? It just isn’t clear.
This is essentially an agreement to negotiate an agreement. No harm yet in that.
No security guarantees
The big omission from Ukraine’s perspective is the lack of security guarantees. The agreement says this:
The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.
That is a backhanded way of saying the US won’t give guarantees but will support Ukraine’s effort to get them. The implied source is Europe, including the United Kingdom and Turkey as well as the European Union. No one else is available. The Europeans should bear this burden. Russian guarantees aren’t worth the paper they are written on.
The problem is that the US saying that the US will not guarantee the guarantors. That is, if NATO European member states guarantee Ukraine’s security, NATO’s Article 5 will not apply to their forces. If the Europeans get into trouble, for example with the Russians, the US will not help them out.
That is important. The obligation to protect European forces in Bosnia led to the Dayton peace agreement. Dick Holbrooke convinced President Clinton it would be better to deploy Americans to end the war rather than conduct an evacuation of the Europeans.
Production isn’t going to be easy or quick
Ukraine is a big country and may have lots of resources of interest to the US.

Here are the more “critical” deposits, rare earths and others (the pinkish area in the southeast is Russian-occupied territory):

But none of this is going to be easy or quick to exploit. Yesterday’s NPR interview on the subject suggested it will 18 years from the required up-to-date mapping to mineral production from a mine:
That would be 18 years in peacetime, or in a peaceful area of the country. I’m not holding my breath.
So why did it blow up?
Signing this agreement, which is no more than an agreement to negotiate, would have been much better than a pissing match. But Vance and Trump seem to me determined to sandbag Zelensky, who wasn’t humble enough for their tastes:
Zelensky should not have taken the bait. Who knows what comes next!
Part II: what can be done?
J. F. Carter, US Army (ret LTC) 1968-1992, United Nations (ret D-1) 1992-2009, and European Union (ret D-1) 2009-2011, continues his analysis of the problems from last week with this proposal for solutions:
Donald Trump did not put his hand on the Bible during the swearing-in. He doesn’t feel constrained to protect the United States against all enemies domestic and foreign.
What can be done?
Be part of the Resistance:
- Bury your Congressmen and Senators with emails and letters!
- Organize and protest!
- Support politicians who understand that our democracy and Constitution are under threat!
- Join a political party that supports and follows the principles outlined in the Declaration of Independence and Constitution!
- Donate time and money!
- Vote!
- Elect Democrats, Independents and Republicans in 2026 who oppose Trumpism and MAGA!
- Support the courts to fight the battle against blatant violations of civil and legal rights!
- Educate and devote yourselves to the best of our government’s ideals!
Absent voters handed Trump his office, but we still have vestiges of three equal branches of government. J. D. Vance wants to ignore the principle of judicial review, established in Marbury vs Madison in the 18th century. But he hasn’t won that battle yet. Ours is still a government that rules by law, not by the whims of one man. We got rid of King George III. We do not need King Donald.
Ukraine
On the international front, Trump is creating chaos with Allies and aligning the US with Russia. There is a lot to be done:
- Support European efforts in favor of Ukrainian sovereignty and against Russian aggression!
- Insist that Europe and Ukraine be part of any peace negotiations!
- Do not abandon a free nation, with a democratically, popular leader like Zelensky, under attack!
- Ukraine’s defense is ours in the long run!
At home
Domestically, we need to create a stronger, more representative, and transparent democracy. It should not divide Americans but unite them, e pluribus unum. We need a Government of National Reconciliation as well as
- A Council of Sages consisting of former Presidents/VPs/advocates for the Constitution and democracy to speak directly to the American public on a regular basis;
- Term limits of 12 years for all Congress persons, Senators and judges;
- An end to Citizens United and return to one-person/one-vote, instead of allowing oligarchs to buy elections;
- Public financing of elections with equal funding for Independents, Democrats and Republican candidates that pass a certain threshold of voter support;
- Re-districting panels to ensure that there is competition in state and local elections;
- Voter registration/certification/verification panels;
- Strict laws prohibiting foreign interference (political or financial) in US elections ;
- Greater accountability and transparency of public spending;
- Admission of Puerto Rico and DC as states;
- Consultative counsels to meet monthly with local officials to discuss concerns and provide recommendations on how to improve local governance.
None to speak for me
Remember what German pastor Martin Niemöller said regarding the silence of the German public following the Nazi rise to power?
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
How to solve the Dayton puzzle
Bosnian Fulbrighter Cancar will present tomorrow 11-12:30 at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Please register and join us!
