Stevenson’s army November 1

President interferes in British election.
SecState says China seeks world domination.
Senate approved one batch of appropriations bills, but not Defense/HHS.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Daring to dream

This joint “non-paper” from the presidents of the Serbia and Kosovo Chambers of Commerce arrived in my inbox earlier this week. My compliments to them for the constructive tone and interesting ideas. Economic progress is not a substitute for a political settlement, but it might make one easier to achieve:

NON PAPER

  • We, as the Presidents of the Serbian and Kosovo Chambers of Commerce, are recollecting the commitments of all the parties to the goals expressed in the Final Declaration of the Conference on the Western Balkans held in Berlin, 2014;
  • We regret the disunity of the European Union that leads to the refusal to open membership talks with North Macedonia and Albania despite the clear endorsement and promise made to those two countries by the European Council and the Commission. Moreover, the Eurochambers, the biggest  association of businesses in Europe representing more than 21 million businesses, strongly supported the European Union enlargement on the Western Balkans as it will benefit both sides economically and will foster stability in the region;
  • As the main advocates of the free trade and regional economic integration, we are calling for the adoption of a “New Deal for the Region“ that should lead to a creation of the Western Balkans Economic Area, based on well-established principles of other similar models, including the European Economic Area, built on four fundamental freedoms of the European Union – the free movement of people, goods, services and capital among its members, enabling  economic growth, attracting foreign investments and enhancing the global competitiveness of the region. Thus, we are appealing to the European Union to lift the visa regime with Kosovo, enabling its citizens to join their neighbours in enjoying the unrestricted freedom of movement;
  • We are aware that the process of normalizing relations between Serbia and Kosovo is one of the key prerequisites for providing a prosperous and stable future to all citizens in the region, and will have a positive effect for overall economic, social and political development of the Western Balkans;
  • Finding a long-lasting, sustainable and comprehensive agreement that would provide the future stability of Serbian and Kosovar societies, and laying the ground for unleashing their development potential must be priority for the Kosovo and Serbian Governments, European Union and all other interested parties willing to contribute to the stabilization and development of Serbia, Kosovo and the Western Balkans as a whole;
  • To guarantee the success of the agreement, all parties need to be committed and to secure its implementation through a carefully-designed action plan of its implementation, with an overall investment and development package;
  • Financial and overall support of the process of normalization, development and cooperation of Kosovo and Serbia should be a priority for international financial institutions, bilateral donors, the European Union, its member states, the United States and for the Serbian and Kosovo Governments;
  • Our two Chambers are committed to contribute, in every possible way, to finding a comprehensive and long-lasting agreement between Kosovo and Serbia by proposing priorities in the form of a document on economic cooperation between Kosovo and Serbia, which will take into consideration all the obligations of the two sides, but will also propose areas of  cooperation – in energy, infrastructure, education, agro industry, services and other areas – that will be the pillars and drivers of the future development;
  • We would like to reiterate our commitment to maintain excellent relations between our Chambers, with the business communities and individuals both in Serbia and in Kosovo, despite the current strained political relations between the two sides. Bearing this in mind, we are committed to further strengthening and enhancing our collaboration and dialogue in order to create a favourable environment for economic cooperation, enabling, inter alia:
    • Free movement of people, goods, services and capital, 
    • Recognition and harmonization of all pending documents,
    • Facilitation, if necessary, of talks that would lead to re-establishing and advancing road, railway, air and postal traffic connections and infrastructure,
    • Creation of positive climate and conditions conducive to joint investments in Serbia and Kosovo,
    • Contribution to resolving all other pending issues that could hamper economic development.
    • Further improving sectorial cooperation and understanding between representatives of both business communities, as well as performing matchmaking activities.
  • As the representatives of the business communities, we are calling for long-term oriented approach on putting economic and development interests ahead and working to achieve long-lasting and comprehensive agreement that would unleash and harness the creative, economic, natural, and scientific potential of Serbia, Kosovo and the region as a whole;
  • We deeply believe that having a lasting solution will make our economies stable and more attractive for foreign investments, especially for those coming from Germany and other EU countries, providing them with a bigger market, skillful workforce able to compete with the latest technological and IT challenges and strategic geographic position;
  • Finally, we are committed to provide support to any businesses, institutions and individuals who share our dream of making the Western Balkans developed, prosperous and fully integrated into the European Union.

Berlin, October 21, 2019

Marko Čadež, President

Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia

Berat Rukiqi, President

Kosovo Chamber of Commerce

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Stevenson’s army October 31

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Good election, big challenges

On October 29 the Middle East Institute (MEI) and Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) hosted an event entitled “Observations from the Tunisian Election.” Tunisian Ambassador Fayçal Gouia delivered the opening remarks and participated in the panel discussion. Georgetown Professor and North Africa specialist William Lawrence moderated the discussion. Panelists included Jeffrey England, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the National Democratic Institute (NDI), Patricia Karam, Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa division of the International Republican Institute (IRI), Sarah Yerkes, Middle East Fellow at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace, and Thomas Hill, senior program officer for North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).

England emphasized that the joint election observation undertaken by NDI and IRI demonstrated several positive aspects of the Tunisian election. Despite the fact that the July 25 death of former President Essebsi required the election to be held sooner than originally planned, it was peaceful and administered professionally. England also highlighted that the Parliamentary and Presidential debates that were held for the first time are evidence that the democratic system continues to mature. He noted that while there are lingering questions about turnout in the election, there was a larger pool of voters in both rounds than expected. England felt that because President Kais Saied does not belong to a political party he may be better able to hold the parties in Parliament to account.

Karam agreed that the election observation demonstrated several positive developments but noted that Tunisia should amend several aspects of its electoral framework prior to the next election, including campaign finance regulations, media rules, and the interaction between the judicial and electoral systems. Polling shows a crisis of confidence in politicians, growing dissatisfaction with the democratic experiment, and the sense that Tunisian political parties lack a clear vision for economic reform. This dissatisfaction is particularly deep among Tunisian youth, with preliminary data showing that youth turnout in the election may have been as low as 16%. Karam believes Tunisians voted for Saied because they prioritized stability in government, even if it comes with older, more conservative ideas.

Yerkes argued that while Saied received 70% of the votes, giving him a strong mandate, the incarceration of his opponent Karoui during the election was a significant flaw in the democratic process. She believes the election was unquestionably free but does not think it was fair. Karoui’s incarceration highlighted the need for Tunisia to implement a system for absentee voting. The electoral law allows prisoners to vote but there is currently no mechanism for them to do so, meaning that Karoui was unable to vote for himself.

Several panelists agreed that Tunisia’s economy was the key issue in this election and will play a key role in the future of its democracy. Gouia stated that job creation and delivering economic reform will be the first priority of the new administration. England asserted that while the electorate’s main concern was revolution in 2011 and identity in 2014, now people want to see results, particularly on economic issues. Hill argued that the Tunisian social contract has shifted so that graduates expect the government to create jobs for them rather than being entrepreneurial. England agreed, stating that the economic problems cannot be solved before the next election. He felt that the government should focus on developing a long-term plan to reform the economy and attempt to reframe the people’s expectations so that they understand that economic change will take time.  

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Stevenson’s army October 30

In a stunning double defeat, the House Wednesday voted 403-16 to impose tough sanctions on Turkey for its invasion of Syria and for the first time ever voted to recognize the Armenian genocide. WaPo has good background on the lobbying efforts that prevented such a vote until now.
Lt.Col Vindman fills in the ellipses, saying that he tried unsuccessfully to get words he overheard in the Trump-Zelensky phone call incorporated into the memcon.
Where are the carriers? In Newport for repairs.
CFR says farmers are $7 billion in the hole because of the trade war with China.
Look at WSJ’s list of the many arguments used by the administration to assert untrammeled presidential power.
How to reduce hyperpartisanship? FP suggests ways to get a multiparty system.
Defense News has a good rundown on what’s in and not in the “skinny” NDAA draft.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army October 28

– Key intelligence leading to the Baghdadi raid came from Iraqi intelligence, according to Reuters. But  NYT credits the Kurds and notes that the president’s order to withdraw troops from northern Syria, despite knowledge of the narrowing hunt for Baghdadi, forced a last minute scramble that could have jeopardized the operation.
– Congressional notification was not required because the operation was a “traditional Military Activity” rather than a covert action, title 10 rather than 50. Lawfare explains why.  The bin Laden raid was CIA controlled, with the SEAL force legally transferred to CIA under title 50, and the gang of 8 was notified as required by law [Hughes-Ryan as updated in 1990].
– There’s further confirmation of how Graham and Keane used the oil argument to get Trump to keep some forces in Syria. But legally, we can’t keep the oil.
-A tell-all book by Mattis’ speechwriter, whom he has denounced, is out this week. Ln the grounds that a review may tell you all you need to know, here’s a review.
– Those of you who remember my long history with the B-1 bomber may appreciate this: they have found a way to use them.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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