Stevenson’s army, August 29

– Atlantic releases chapter of Afghanistan withdrawal chapter of Franklin Foer book on Biden.

– Journalist Jim Fallows critique media coverage of politics — note his link to conservative Nicholas Grossman.

– Jay Solomon sees the BRICS building a coalition against US

– Dan Drezner assesses the rise of China, and the consequences of its decline.

– Tom Ricks review some new military history books.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, August 27

Just in time for class, articles on relevant issues: tribalism and trade.

-WSJ has data on the increased tribalism in US politics. [Earlier NYT’s Thomas Edsall discussed the rise of partisan hatred.]

-WaPo notes how Biden’s trade policies are closer to Trump’s than Obama’s.

For Congress there is a deeper legal problem: as CFR’s Inu Manak argues, Biden is re-defining Free Trade Agreements to get around details in the Inflation Reduction Act. [He has a long piece on this in FP.] CRS summarizes congressional power over trade deals.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Yes, I was there and then is now

I wrote this piece for the 50th anniversary of the March on Washington, but it has aged well so here it is again ten years later:

Eighteen years old in August 1963, I had spent the summer after high school graduation working in a factory, commuting by bike the five miles or so from where I was staying with a friend.  I don’t remember my decision to go to the March, but I do remember my racist aunt calling my mother the night before and trying to get her to stop me.  There would be violence, Aunt Betty was sure, and who knows what kind of trouble.

That appeal fell on deaf ears.  My mother was a committed advocate of integration, which had been an issue for years in my hometown of New Rochelle, New York.  My father, until he died in 1961, was an activist and successful opponent of “blockbusting”:  the real estate agents’ practice of scaring whites to move by implying that the neighborhood was “turning,” thus fulfilling their own prophecy and collecting lots of commissions.  A Federal court had found two years earlier that the Lincoln School half a mile from our house had been intentionally segregated and eventually ordered remedies.  This, people, was hundreds of miles north of the Mason-Dixon line.

I was already dating a “Negro” girl, in the terminology of the time.  That wasn’t common (nor was it common when we married five years later and remained married until today).  I confess it had taken me years to work up the courage to ask her out.  She was away that summer and did not go on the March.  But surely the sense I had that the March was the right place to be was connected to my romantic interests, if only by worldview.

To get to Washington around 8 am in those days meant a 2 am rising in New Rochelle, no breakfast and a quick dash out of the house grabbing the brown paper lunch bag from the fridge.  As the bus arrived in DC, I awakened to a strong fish smell.  It was that brown paper bag.  It wasn’t the one with my lunch.  I don’t know what my family had for dinner, but I had little money in my pocket (no ATMs then) and was hungry much of the day.

We staged at Thomas Circle and marched from there singing and chanting to the Lincoln Memorial, where I found a good spot on the left of the reflecting pool under the trees.  It was a happy but determined crowd.  We knew the country was watching.  We all dressed reasonably well, the “Negroes” better than the “whites” to look as respectable as possible.  We knew there was an absolute need to avoid violence, but the issue never arose in my part of the march.  There were just too many of us for anyone to tangle with.  The racists, who were many in that day in Washington, stayed home.

Solidarity was the overwhelming feeling.  The weather was beautiful and the mood was good, but this was no picnic.  It was a determined and disciplined protest.  “We Shall Overcome” was the anthem. The New York Times reporter who quoted me in Saturday’s paper asked whether I was surprised that celebrities like Peter, Paul and Mary and Bob Dylan sang.  No, that was no surprise:  they had been part of “the movement.”  The answer, my friend, was blowing in the wind.

A word about the concept of race at the time of the March, which was clearly organized and led by Bayard Rustin and A. Philip Randolph.  In the terminology of the time, they were “Negroes,” not yet blacks or African Americans.  The concept of “whites” is likewise an anachronism.  I didn’t regard myself as part of a white majority then (nor do I really now).  The majority then was WASP:  white Anglo-Saxon Protestants.  As a Jew whose grandparents immigrated from Russia and Russian-occupied Poland, I was in none of those three categories.  I was a minority.  The barriers to Jews (quotas in universities, prohibitions in clubs and limitations in employment) had only recently come down.  The affinity of Jews for the civil rights movement was strong.

The March on Washington was important to us because it was a massive show of support to those who wanted to end segregation, which was more the rule than the exception.  It was inconsistent with what the marchers understood as the founding creed: all men are created equal (the question of women was posed later).  “Jobs and freedom” meant an end to discrimination on the basis of skin color in a society still based on racial separation.  It was a radical proposition.  I learned only this week that the even the police force in DC was still segregated, with no mixed patrols.

Segregation did not end during the March on Washington, as some would like to imagine. The struggle continued even more intensely after August 1963. The bombing of the 16th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham came just two weeks or so later.  James Chaney, Andrew Goodman, and Mickey Schwerner, who was the son of my high school biology teacher, were murdered in Philadelphia, Mississippi the next June.  I had wanted to spend the summer there but yielded to my mother’s entreaties and instead earned some much-needed cash doing research at Yale.  New Haven was still mostly segregated, especially schools and housing.  I imagine it still is to some extent.

I was sitting down in the street in Cambridge, Maryland in 1964 in support of people trying to end school and housing segregation in what was known then as the Delmarva peninsula (not the Eastern Shore).  Delmarva was more akin to the deep South than the northeast when it came to segregation. The state-mobilized National Guard blocked our march there with fixed bayonets, wearing gas masks. The protest leadership decided not to test their will to use them. I’ve never regretted that.

Once MLK and RFK were murdered in 1968, the civil rights movement lost steam to the anti-Vietnam War movement. I got my first whiff of tear gas protesting at Fort Dix in 1969 and tested the patience of army officers at my physical in 1970. The civil rights movement ended prematurely, befuddled by weakened leadership and dissension within the black community  (as it came to be called), some of which toyed with violence while others tried to move further in the direction of economic justice.

Another ten years of MLK leading the challenge to the American reality would have done a lot more good than the lionizing of him now.  In housing, schooling and the economy the sharp divides between blacks and whites have not disappeared.  Some have even widened.  The mechanisms of segregation are no longer overt and direct, but they are effective and persistent.  No one can hope to do what Bull Connor and George Wallace did once upon a time, but voter ID laws are just a more sophisticated version of a particular group’s desire to keep America in the hands of people who look, behave and vote like them.

Still, things have changed for the better.  I can hope that the voter ID laws will mobilize massive minority participation in the states that pass them.  I am pleased my children have had opportunities that would have been denied a generation earlier.  My wife and I married in the year after the Supreme Court struck down Virginia’s prohibition on interracial marriage, though we were unaware of the decision at the time.  Today we  travel the length and breadth of America without worrying about being lynched.  And yes, President Obama embodies the ideals of August 28, 1963.

But we still need to make sure we treat all people as the equals they are.  Then is now.

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No need for panic about the 2024 election

It is starting to look as if Donald Trump has the Repubican nomination for President in the bag. This has struck panic into the hearts of many Americans and non-Americans, who correctly understand that the outcome of US elections is unpredictable. But they are wrong to panic this time around.

The Republicans

Trump has capture the Republican Party. Both the institution and its registered adherents support him. Two-thirds of Republicans want him as their candidate. Seventy-three per cent say they will vote for him.

He is opposed by more or less 10 competitors, none of whom come close to challenging him among the rank and file. Even if the Republican opposition to Trump were to coalesce around a single competitor willing to openly oppose him, the odds would be long. The Republican primaries will be a beauty contest with little import, though they may influence the choice of the party’s vice-presidential candidate.

Trump’s four indictments in recent weeks have done little to undermine his dominance among Republicans. He has used them to claim that the system is unfair and to portray himself as a victim, not a perpetrator.

That said, no Republican can win the popular vote in a presidential election with only 73% of registered Republicans. That’s one strike against Trump.

Independents

The indictments have not shaken Republican support for Trump, but most independents agree with Democrats that he should stand trial before the election and that he is guilty of the charges. They also agree that the Justice Department is fair and that if convicted Trump should go to prison.

It is hard to imagine how any true independents would shift their votes from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024. What has Trump done in the past three years to move votes in his direction? Americans are still dissatisfied with Biden and especially his handling of the economy. But inflation is down sharply (from 9% or so a year ago to 3% now) while employment has held up and wages are beating inflation. It may take some time for this news to change minds, but the economic facts are good, not bad.

Democrats

Biden’s support among Democrats is solidifying. Rumors of primary challenges are fading. Trump as the Republican nominee will guarantee that 90% or more of Democrats will vote for Biden. While his overall approval ratings have continued to lag, his rating on the economy has improved. He also gets relatively good marks on Ukraine and race relations, issues that many Democrats care about.

In some key states, Democrats are doing well. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are three states that were crucial in 2016 to Trump and in 2020 to Biden. They will likely be close again in 2024. But, unlike Texas and Florida, they are not out of reach for Biden. Younger voters there and elsewhere give the Democrats a decided advantage. This is especially true among young women, most of whom are displeased with Republican-supported restrictions on abortion.

The spoilers: economy, third parties, voter suppression, the electoral college

Despite this overall favorable prognosis for Biden, three spoilers need to be kept in mind.

The economy is always an important factor in American elections. While inflation is still an issue, the Federal Reserve has so far seemed to manage the situation well. It is easy to imagine that inflation by November 2024 will be at the target of 2% without a severe recession. But that is not guaranteed. If the economy is in recession next spring or summer, Biden’s support could weaken.

A third party candidacy could spoil the election for the Democrats. There are already several threats of such efforts, at least one funded mainly by Republican donors to weaken Biden.

Republican-controlled state legislatures have tried hard to suppress the votes of Democrats. Limiting mail-in ballots, drop boxes, early voting, and poll hours as well as heightening voter identity requirements are all thought to limit Democratic turnout. But past efforts of this sort appear to have stimulated defiance rather than abstention. Let’s hope that continues.

The Electoral College is the real joker in this pack. It elects the President based on results in the individual states, using a formula that generally favors smaller population states (which favor Republicans). Each state gets a number of Electoral Votes equivalent to its number of members of Congress. That is always two in the Senate (no matter how small the state) plus the number of Representatives in the House. Gerrymandering of districts in many states has inflated the number of Republicans in the House.

Bottom line

American elections are not predictable. But there is no reason for panic about 2024. Hillary Clinton in 2020 won the popular vote by 2.8 million. Biden won by more than 6 million. It is hard to imagine Trump doing much better than that. The key question will be the geographic distribution of Republican voters and third party supporters. That could tilt the Electoral College away from Biden. But you won’t know at the earliest until the day after. So stop panicking and start hoping Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania do the right thing.

Stevenson’s army, August 26

It’s all over, says Charlie Cook. Trump will be the GOP nominee.

– WaPo still does some fact-checking on other presidential candidates.

– Georgetown SFS group has recommendations to improve US diplomacy.

– NYT has declassified US intelligence report on Russian influence operations in US & Europe.

-Pentagon protested false Fox report

Singer protests GOP use of his song.

– Economist lists important books for read for IR and offers candidates for Great American Novel.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, August 25

-WaPo has maps showing impact of the Tuberville hold on 301 military nominations.

– WSJ says Chinese may help Saudi nuclear plant

– Military Times has quotes on foreign policy from GOP “debate”

– Defense One highlights State office that handles Ukraine aid.

– Lawfare has summary of recent events in the Pacific region.

I’ve long believed that “some people die only in the Times” — that NYT runs obituaries on little known but deeply significant people. Today, it tells about the man who invented the PDF format.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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