Stevenson’s army, June 9
– How many wars are we in today? WH releases latest war powers report.
– Watson Institute at Brown criticizes defense spending.
– There’s a fight over sending troops to Haiti. US wants a UN force; author argues against it.
– Corruption leads US to cut aid to Ethiopia.
– Another Discord leak from WaPo: Saudi prince threatened severe economic pain on US
– Effort to label Wagner a terrorist group fails.
– FT has details of Iranian drones to Russia.
– NYT says satellites saw dam explosion.
– Florida man goes to jail for keeping classified documents. No, a different Florida man.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Fewer sticks, more carrots
Distinguished members of the Albanian American community have sent a stern letter to Secretary of State Blinken. It criticizes the Biden Administration’s one-sided approach to current disputes between Kosovo and Serbia. The US (and EU) have generally sided with Belgrade. They have also threatened Pristina with sanctions if it doesn’t quickly comply with Washington and Brussels demands.
A justified protest…
The protest letter is in my view fully justified. Serbia is aiming to demonstrate and maintain control over the Serb-majority communities in northern Kosovo. This was its goal in over-reacting to Kosovo’s effort to insist on Kosovo license plates in the north. It was the goal in instructing northern Kosovo officials to resign their positions. And it was the goal in getting the Serb population to boycott the elections called to replace them. It is also Belgrade’s goal in pursuing, with strong EU and US support, an Association of Serb Majority Municipalities (ASMM) with executive powers.
Washington and Brussels have backed Serbia hoping to get Belgrade to reorient itself towards the West and away from Moscow. Belgrade’s allowing shipment of arms to Ukraine has reinforced this hope. But there is no sign that President Vucic is prepared to weaken his ties to Moscow and Beijing. To the contrary, he has continued to refuse to align with EU sanctions on Russia (and with many other aspects of EU foreign policy). He maintains an open door for military cooperation with Russia as well as Chinese security technology and investment.
…but more is needed
Kosovo is a sincere friend of the US and EU, not only because of the 1999 NATO intervention that saved its population from ethnic cleansing and war crimes but also because it is a serious democracy. Pristina has no option to turn to Russia or China. Prime Minister Kurti has refused EU and US demands he believes would limit the country’s sovereignty and threaten its territorial integrity. But he needs Western support for Kosovo to survive and thrive.
He also needs greater acceptance by the Serbs in northern Kosovo. He has been relatively successful, building on accomplishments of his predecessors, in getting acceptance by the Serbs who live south of the Ibar river. But in the north, which is contiguous with Serbia, Belgrade’s security services and their allied organized crime networks still prevail. Kurti has been trying to break their control by enforcing Kosovo law in the north, but so far his efforts do not appear to have succeeded.
Fewer sticks, more carrots
The US and EU are threatening sanctions against Kosovo. Kurti is using the police to try to seat mayors elected despite a Serb boycott. These sticks are working. They appear to have stiffened resistance.
Kurti, the US, and the EU should all try a few more carrots.
The Prime Minister needs to show the Serbs in northern Kosovo what they can gain either by allowing the mayors to take their rightful places or by holding new elections. He should propose a statute for the ASM, without executive powers. The US and EU need to show Kurti what he can gain by beginning negotiations on the ASMM. I imagine, for example, that a sincere apology for the Milosevic regime’s homicidal repression in the 1990s and an offer to negotiate compensation, especially for the women raped by Serbian security forces, would go a long way.
Less appeasement
Brussels and Washington have used only carrots with Belgrade. They incongruously praise him as someone who has turned Serbia westward. They avoid any criticism of high-level corruption and autocratic behavior in Serbia. The US only whispers opposition to his mobilization and deployment of the Serbian army on the border with Kosovo, resorts to inappropriately citing “both sides” in criticizing Serb rioters against KFOR troops, and provides ample political and economic support. Vucic pockets the carrots and continues his courtships with Moscow and Beijing. It is high time for appeasement to end.
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End threats to use military force!
Genc Pollo, former minister and member of parliament in Albania, writes from Tirana:
For the third time in the last two years Serbia last week put her armed forces on alert and has deployed them to the border with Kosovo. Apart from infantry and armor, fighter jets have been flying along Kosovo’s airspace.
Belgrade the arsonist
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has verbosely explained on each occasion that his military was ready to intervene in neighboring Kosovo to prevent the suffering of the Serbian community there. In the first two instances, the Kosovo authorities were attempting to get Kosovo Serbs in the north to use Kosovo plates rather than Serbian ones.
In the third and current instance, the Kosovo police were escorting four newly elected mayors into their offices. The Serb majority in the northern municipalities had boycotted the mayoral elections so the elected mayors had a different ethnic background. Furthermore the election was caused by the resignations of the incumbent mayors last December. Both the resignations and the election boycott happened at the behest of Belgrade.
The real problem is the threat to use military force
Such local crises are not a threat to Serbia. Nor are they a violation of Serb rights that should elicit a such a military response by Kosovo’s northern neighbor. The real problem is that the Serbian President threatens his smaller neighbor with the use of military force.
The 1945 UN Charter signatories vowed to “suppress aggression” and to “refrain…from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state”. Stronger and more detailed language permeates the OSCE agreements of which Serbia is also a party.
The EU and US make it worse
Perhaps the most alarming development isn’t Vucic’s bravado but the Western response to it. The EU and the US, who are facilitating a “normalization process” between the two Balkan states, have not condemned in clear terms this breach of international law. Instead they have spoken softly of concern while simultaneously chastising Kosovo for the deployment of her police force on her own territory. According to press reports, US and European officials have quietly asked Vucic to withdraw his units.
Some are tempted to say that Serbia is merely gesticulating for domestic consumption. Belgrade knows it cannot match KFOR, the NATO-led troops stationed in Kosovo. That might be true. But this didn’t hinder Belgrade from instigating riot in northern Kosovo to violently attack deployed KFOR units, including with firearms. Dozens of hospitalized soldiers, some in critical condition, were the consequence. NATO had to send in reinforcements.
End appeasement
History teaches us that many past wars were deemed impossible until they broke out, in some cases unintentionally.
It would be in the West’s best interest to end appeasement of the would-be aggressor and to ensure that the threat of using military force is unacceptable, especially by states claiming to want to join the European Union.
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Stevenson’s army, June 8
-WaPo says the Ukrainian offensive has begun.
– WSJ says China is building a “spy base” in Cuba.
– European opinion isn’t so hostile to China, NYT reports. Here’s the poll.
– Military journalist Mark Thompson notes poor maintenance of US equipment:
One of the most interesting things about covering the Pentagon is the surprises you get when it’s caught with its cammies down. Take, for example, the massive stockpiles of weapons the U.S. military has stored around the world, primed to be shipped to the front lines and into battle within days. “The Army Prepositioned Stock program is a cornerstone of the Army’s ability to rapidly project power and send a clear signal of U.S. commitment,” the service says (PDF).
Um, not so much.
We’d likely never have learned just how unready this Army arsenal is if Vladimir Putin hadn’t invaded Ukraine. The U.S. has provided Ukraine with nearly $40 billion in military aid (PDF) since Russia invaded 15 months ago, nearly half (PDF) of which has come from U.S. military stockpiles. Some came from a U.S. depot in Kuwait, which is the subject of a Pentagon inspector general’s report released May 25. “We identified issues that resulted in unanticipated maintenance, repairs, and extended leadtimes to ensure the readiness of the military equipment selected to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” the IG said.
The inquiry examined the state of Ukraine-bound M777 howitzers and M1167 High-Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles. The Army had “identified the equipment as fully mission capable and ready for issue to the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” the IG noted (PDF). Au contraire: the inspector general concluded that a stunning 91% of the guns and vehicles (32 of 35) were, in fact, not ready for war.
The cannons were so poorly maintained they “would have killed somebody” (PDF) — and it wouldn’t have been the enemy. Quarterly inspections and repairs hadn’t been done for 19 months, leading to internal gun misalignments on four of the six guns “that could be fatal to the crew operating the howitzer.” Old hydraulic fluid had been recycled, which the operator’s manual forbids (PDF) because it can cause “disastrous results and malfunctions of critical systems.” Once shipped to Europe, worn firing pins and faulty firing mechanisms further delayed the guns’ delivery to Ukraine.
Twenty-six of the 29 M1167 tank-killing Humvees weren’t operational due to dead batteries, fluid leaks, broken gauges, and other woes. Tires on 25 of them had to be replaced due to dry rot. One Humvee tire shredded because of the problem on its way to Ukraine; the spare also failed “due to dry rot” (PDF).
The U.S. military has paid contractors close to $1 billion (PDF) to keep the gear in Kuwait ready for combat since 2016. But apparently that’s not enough (PDF). Which is why the U.S. Army graciously included a note to their Ukrainian allies along with one of the Humvees lacking a part. In the middle of a war for Ukraine’s survival, the U.S. Army suggested Ukraine seek the MIA part “through the established process for requesting parts” (PDF).
That’s the U.S. military’s key to victory: send in the paperwork.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 7
– Politico sees split between GOP Senators and Representatives over defense spending and Ukraine.
– NYT sees split between Russia and Saudi Arabia over oil.
– WaPo sees generational GOP split over debt ceiling.
– In another Discord leak found by WaPo, it seems US knew of Ukrainian plans to damage Nordstream pipeline.
– Evan Thomas has a new book about the end of WWII. FP runs an excerpt on the A-bomb decision.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Something is stirring in Belgrade
Saturday’s fifth mass protest against Serbia’s President Vucic was the largest so far. People are “fed up.” Triggered by two mass shootings, the protests have widened their aim and now focus on getting rid of Vucic, freeing the media from government control, and ending a culture of violence.
They’ve got my sympathies, but…
I can’t help but be sympathetic with the peaceful protesters. Serbia re-elected Vucic with 60% of the vote just 14 months ago in a free but far from fair election. But it has been clear for some time that a large slice of Serbian society is displeased with his increasingly authoritarian rule, use of violence, and insensitivity to environmental concerns. While his political opposition is fragmented and ineffective, the protests are proving united and sustained so far.
The question is whether they are powerful enough to lead to his ouster. I doubt it. While it is common to cite the October 2000 ouster of Slobodan Milosevic, it is too often forgotten that those massive demonstrations were in support of election results. Milosevic had lost an election he had called early, thinking himself invulnerable. Vucic has talked about a Sepember election, but he hasn’t called it yet. Before doing so, he will want to be certain he will win it. He is good at using state resources and jobs to ensure political support.
…Vucic still has cards to play
Vucic also knows well how to play the other usual cards of Serbian politics. He staged his own rent-a-crowd demonstration last weekend featuring ethnonationalist tirades. He at the same time provoked clashes in Kosovo intended to distract attention. These gave him an excuse to mobilize the Serbian Army and deploy units to the border/boundary with Kosovo, claiming he needed to protect Kosovo Serbs. Never mind that they were in danger because they attacked Kosovo police protecting non-Serb mayors elected in polls that the Serbs, under Vucic’s instructions, boycotted.
Vucic no doubt has other cards to play. He can arrest and harass protest organizers. He can stage clashes inside Serbia requiring the police to intervene. The Serbian media, which mostly ignores the protests, can sing his praises louder and longer. They can also amplify alleged threats to Serbs in Kosovo. Vucic can rely on his now well-established allies in Washington and Brussels to worry about what would happen if he were to fall, leaving the way open for an even more ethnonationalist right-winger to take power. Beijing’s surveillance technology and Moscow’s assistance to the Serbian security services will do what they can to protect him. Many Serbs already blame the American embassy for propping up Vucic.
Something is stirring that the Americans could help
All that said, something is stirring in Serbia that may prove in the long run stronger than Vucic and the hand he still has to play. To be successful, it will need somehow to undermine pillars that keep the Vucic elected autocracy in place: his own political party, the army and security services, the Church, and support from Washington, Brussels, Moscow and Beijing. There would need to be a split in the ruling elite that is not visible today. Still more courageous citizens and politicians would need to challenge the powers that be, likely with a popular political program as well as protests.
Of course the Americans could help if they would hold Vucic accountable, the way they have Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti for not yielding to State Department diktats. But Washington still wants to delude itself that Vucic will bring Serbia westward. American diplomats appreciate his willingness to allow Serbian arms to reach Ukraine. Appeasement is their preferred approach. The chimera of Vucic choosing the West still has a strong hold on the State Deparment.
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