Careful what you wish for
The Balkans are aflutter because President Trump mentioned the region. He apparently said on his social media platform:
During my first term, Serbia and Kosovo were in a fierce dispute, as they have been for decades, and this long-standing conflict was ready to escalate into war. I stopped it. Biden damaged the long-term chances with some very stupid decisions, but I will fix it again.
This is thin gruel, even by Trump’s MAGAte standards. While I agree that Biden made stupid decisions, Trump did not prevent war in his first term. And any effort he makes now could cause even more damage.
What Trump will try
I say this because of Trump’s inclination towards partition of Kosovo. His Balkan whisperer, Ric Grenell, thinks that is a great idea. He’ll offer it up as an exchange of territory. Serb-majority northern Kosovo would go to Serbia and the Albanian-majority municipalities of southern Serbia would go to Kosovo. Sounds neat, especially if you are an ethnic nationalist. Trump and Grenell are committed ethnic nationalists of the white supremacist variety.
But Serbia won’t agree to partition. It prefers to hold onto all of southern Serbia, where a main road to Thessaloniki and the Mediterranean runs. That’s why Belgrade is doing it’s best to move the Albanians out. So this is a classic bait and switch: offer exchange, get partition. Prime Minister Kurti, or his successor, would do best not to allow any discussion of exchange on the agenda.
What Serbia and Kosovo should try to do
Neither Serbia nor Kosovo really needs help from the likes of Ric Grenell or Donald Trump. The dialogue in recent years has sought to normalize relations between them without mutual recognition. That has failed. The entire political dialogue since 2013 has produced little to nothing.
The technical dialogue that preceded that effort, and has continued sotto voce, has produced a great deal more. While everyone pooh-poohed it at the time, a country dialing code for Kosovo, mutual recognition of documents, sorting out electrical supplies and payments, integrated border controls–these are things that make a real difference to real people. At this point, Belgrade and Pristina know each other well enough to proceed on technical issues even in the absence of EU mediation. If the political will exists, they should do it.
EU issues
At the same time, Belgrade and Kosovo both have their own issues with the EU.
Belgrade is stalled in the accession process. It needs to figure out with Brussels how to get restarted. That should include as a priority implementing the agreement and its implementation annex supposedly reached in 2023. President Vucic refused to sign, but the EU is writing the commitments into the accession process. He’d do well to quietly implement.
Kosovo is still suffering under unjustified EU sanctions for actions no one really remembers. But they helped to stabilize the situation in the north and demonstrated the professionalism of Pristina’s security forces in the face of Belgrade’s concerted destabilization efforts. Brussels has begun the process of easing the sanctions. It should finish as soon as possible.
How about the US?
Even a fully qualified US President would have many things to think about right now before getting to the Balkans. An addled President Trump can do little more than claim credit for things he hasn’t done and promise more. But he is failing everywhere: Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, and trade are all a mess. His incoherence is not healthy. Careful what you wish for. My advice to those who think they need American help is this: don’t ask. Handle it yourselves.
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It doesn’t sound quite right
Israel has established control over Iran’s airspace and is now attacking at will. But it has not yet destroyed either of Iran’s main enrichment sites. Nor has it tried to kill the Supreme Leader, so far we know. That’s the next decision point.
If the aim is nuclear, Fordow is where it’s at
Israel claims it is attacking Iran because of its nuclear program, especially uranium enrichment. The enrichment site at Natanz has suffered above ground damage, including to its power plant. That may have damaged the underground centrifuges. Fordow still shows no attack damage. There the centrifuges are 100 yards underground. There is also a third, newer and deeper enrichment site not yet in operation.
Fordow and the new site are so deep the Israelis can’t reliably destroy them. The the bombs they are capable of delivering are not powerful enough. They might bomb the entrances to block them, or land a ground force to blow them up. Or they can ask the Americans to do it with 5000-bomb behemoth bombs.
President Trump is refusing to comment on possible US involvement in offensive operations against Iran. That is a sign the Americans are at least thinking about helping out. Destroying Fordow and the third site would return Iran to a year from its earlier “threshold” nuclear status. Trump caused this war. He’ll want to be in on it if Israel is going to win.
Or is the Islamic Republic the real target?
Rumint suggests Trump has asked Netanyahu not to kill the Supreme Leader. That gives Trump incentive to help with the enrichment sites.
But it surely displeases Netanyahu. He seems as much interested in regime change as in destroying nuclear sites. Hostility towards the Islamic Republic is a pillar of his career. He won’t want to end this war with it still in place. Just as he doesn’t want the Gaza war to end with Hamas in place. If he can destroy both, he can even hope to win a post-war election.
Israel has killed lots of Iranian military commanders and scientists. Killing Khamenei would up the ante. There is no telling who might take his place, or whether the institutions of the Islamic Republic would survive. Khamenei is bad. A successor could be worse. Or not. No one knows.
Protection or perdition?
The guy who says he is protecting the world doesn’t know either. His thirst for destruction seems insatiable in Gaza. Why would it be less in Iran? He may think he is protecting the world while sending it down the path to perdition. Without a vote, even inside Israel. For the sake of his own career. Doesn’t sound quite right.
PS:
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Incoherence is not healthy
Donald Trump’s birthday military parade fizzled yesterday. Attendance was low, energy was lower, and organization was poor. “No Kings” protests boomed. A couple of thousand demonstrations in all parts of the US attracted easily more than a million peaceful protesters. Energy was high and organization superb.
We are going in the right direction. Trump has been underwater and mostly sinking in the polls since March. His big beautiful budget is particularly unpopular. He is also underwater on the economy, tariffs, and universities. He barely ekes out a positive rating on immigration, his signature issue. Agricultural and hospitality industry lobbyists, as well as his personal interests in resorts, have gotten to him. No more Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids on farms and hotels.
How is he doing on war and peace?
Iran
Trump was trying for an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. This made no sense as he had withdrawn from the previous one. Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu blew up the possibility of a new one with Friday’s opening salvo of war with Iran. Seeing the Israelis doing well, Trump is now cheering them on.
That makes no sense either, as Trump has claimed to be peace president who wants to steer clear of Middle East wars. Cheering the Israelis on also puts American military personnel who are helping defend Israel at risk and gives the Israelis a green light to try to get the US involved in offensive operations. Incoherence is not healthy in international relations.
Palestine
Israel continues to pound Gaza, including its civilians. The American-sponsored aid operation there is failing. Israeli troops are firing on Palestinians seeking aid. Israel is also allowing settlers to torch Palestinian villages in the West Bank, chasing them from their homes.
Trump’s idea of evacuating the Palestinians and rebuilding a Gaza-al-Lago resort is evaporating. Palestinians in Gaza want the Palestinian Authority to take charge there, or a Palestinian committee with Arab and other international support. But the Israelis seem set on maintaining absolute military control, including with Gazan gangs it is arming. Trump is doing nothing to restrain Netanyahu. Incoherence is not healthy in international relations.
Ukraine
Trump succeeded in bludgeoning Ukrainian President Zelensky into talks with Russia. But the talks are going nowhere since President Putin has no interest even in a 30-day ceasefire. He has bet his long time in power on subduing Ukraine and would not likely survive long if he accepted an agreement that Zelensky could sign.
Trump is badmouthing Putin now and again, but doing nothing to pressure him into an agreement with Zelensky. To the contrary, Washington is no longer supplying Ukraine military aid, only sales. It has also diverted vital missiles to the Middle East rather than Ukraine. Incoherence is not healthy in international relations.
Failure is an option
Trump is failing on the three main war and peace issues in the world today. He is also failing on domestic policy. There is some hope that the big beautiful bill won’t make it through the Senate. That would be a blessing, but Republican cowardice is likely to deprive us of the pleasure. Still, failure is an option.
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Diplomacy needed to restore security for all
If you haven’t seen it already, the interviews above with Wendy Sherman and Vali Nasr strike me as eminently level headed. Bottom lines: negotiations no longer, regime change unlikely, more and escalating war, Iran will press ahead to get nuclear weapons.
Regional implications
They don’t deal with the regional implications, except for mentioning Saudi denunciation of Israel for the attack on the “brotherly” Islamic Republic of Iran. But Gulf Arab sympathy with Iran will not go much further. The Saudis and the other Gulf monarchies will not be unhappy to see Iran’s nuclear program decimated. Turkey is likewise opposed to the Israeli attack, but it too was uncomfortable with Iran’s nuclear progress.
Perhaps the clearest sign of the regional reaction is what won’t happen. There will be no oil embargo or other concerted action. Improvement of relations with Israel will stall, but that’s about as far as things will go. If Iran were to have serious military success against Israel, things might be different. But with its air defenses ineffective and mostly destroyed, that isn’t likely to happen. And Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu isn’t the only regional leader who would like to see the Islamic Republic collapse.
Impact on the US and Europe
Oil prices are up 7%, but at $72 or so still below where they were 6 months ago and stabilizing. That is well within the realm of tolerable in both Europe and the US. Only if Israel attacks Iran’s oil production facilities will the price jump further into the painful range. That’s one reason the Israelis haven’t done it. Besides, if they want regime change it would be a mistake to hamper the new regime financially.
The increase to $72 will give Russia some extra rubles, but not a whole lot. In the rest of Europe, consumers will see only small percentage increases, as energy supplies are heavily taxed. Even in the US, lax market conditions mean little serious increase for now.
Iran and Russia are now military allies who supply each other with weapons. Tehran may find it more difficult, or perhaps just less desirable, to supply drones and ammunition to Moscow. Russia’s military production is already stretched tight and won’t be able to help Iran much.
President Trump is cheerleading for the Israelis now, after having tried unsuccessfully to prevent their attack on Iran. That will bring unwanted attention to US troops and travelers in the Middle East. It may also precipitate incidents inside the US. If Israel gets into trouble, the Americans will need to provide more assistance. But that seems unlikely.
The balance of power
The Israelis have enfeebled Iran. Hamas is in a cage. Hezbollah is decimated. The Houthis are still active, but on a minimal scale. Iran itself has lost its air force, its air defenses, much of its senior military leadership, key scientists and engineers. Tehran’s only quick route to restoring deterrence is nuclear weapons. If they can, they will.
That will incentivize Turkey and Saudi Arabia to follow suit. Egypt won’t want to be left behind. The Israelis already have nukes. A nuclear Middle East is not a secure Middle East. You can hope nothing bad will happen, but hope is not a policy. Only tough-minded diplomacy can restore security to all.
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Trump caused this Israeli war with Iran
Tonight’s Israeli attack on Iran is not a one-time thing. Nor is it a matter of days, as the press is reporting. Assuming the Islamic Republic stays in place, this attack will encourage Iran to try to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran will think that will make it immune.
Israel will need to attack repeatedly over months and years to prevent that. Iran will respond in kind. The consequences for both countries will be catastrophic. The region and the rest of the world will not be insulated. The geopolitical era of might makes right has reached a new low.
Israel impatient, Iran provocative
Prime Minister Netanyahu won a crucial vote in his parliament today that would have brought down his government. He chose not to risk another. Instead he launched an attack said to be on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Some of the video I’ve seen looks a lot more like office buildings downtown. They could be collateral damage, or headquarters facilities. Now besides the Gaza war Netanyahu has another to keep himself in power.
Yesterday the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) censured Iran for not complying with its non-proliferation obligations. Tehran had failed to account for uranium traces in locations that had not been disclosed as used for nuclear purposes. Many have suspected these to be traces of a nuclear weapons program known to have existed until 2003. Maybe also thereafter.
In response to the censure, Iran vowed to build new, more advanced, enrichment facilities. It had already accumulated a significant amount of near-bomb-grade enriched uranium.
The US/Israel angle
The Americans are saying they will not support the Israeli attack by military means. But that doesn’t mean Washington won’t help Israel protect itself from the Iranian response. There is a real risk the US could end up in another Middle East war.
President Trump had wanted a new nuclear deal. He at times has left the door open to Iranian enrichment, or perhaps participation in an international enrichment consortium. The Israelis wanted none of that.
The deal Trump sought would have required irreversible lifting of sanctions on Iran, which Israel also did not want. An negotiated outcome will now have to await the mutually hurting stalemate that can only come after death and destruction. Even then, it is hard to picture a mutually enticing way out. Neither the Islamic Republic nor Netanyahu’s Israel will want to agree with the other.
Tighten your seat belt
We are in for a rough ride. Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal allowed the Tehran to enrich a lot of uranium. That would not have happened if the deal had continued. Iran’s enrichment beyond the limits of the 2015 deal is the proximate cause of today’s attack. It’s not just the world that’s dangerous. Trump caused this Israeli war with Iran. Add this war to his already long list of failures in his second term.
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Violence in this good cause is not good
Donald Trump is gleeful. He has mobilized the California National Guard to repress violent anti-Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) demonstrations in Los Angeles. This will cause more violence, which is what Trump and his bile-filled adviser Stephen Miller want.
Their effort to round up and deport immigrants has flagged. The LA violence gives them an excuse to use military force against their opponents. You don’t have to be Nostradamus to understand where this is headed.
I have no problem with people protesting against ICE. I also have no problem with deporting people who have entered the US illegally. We need the labor. But I also know that illegal immigration is a big political problem that doesn’t favor rational decision making.
That’s why Barack Obama and Joe Biden (once the epidemic had subsided) deported a lot of people. But they did it without the public exercise of muscle that provokes protests. They provided the due process the law obligates the government to provide. Results:
The Trump Administration claims to have deported 140,000 so far this year. That is exaggerated, but even if true the pace is slower than Obama and not much faster than Biden.
Trump is grandstanding
Trump is playing to the grandstand. The ICE raids are a purposeful provocation. The resulting mess hides the Administration’s ineptitude and illegality in carrying out the deportations. And it pleases Trump’s cruelty- and violence-prone supporters.
It also provides a precedent for using the military inside the US, without a governor’s permission. That’s what Trump is really after. Despite posse comitatus, He figures the courts won’t stop him if there is disorder and rioting. The judiciary often defers to the President on national security issues.
Time to calm down
Continuing the violence will not do any good. Nonviolent civil disobedience is what the situation calls for. It won’t be easy, as ICE will riot even if the protesters don’t. But handing Trump an issue he can use to rally popular sentiment is a big mistake. The demonstrators in LA need to cool it. Not because they are wrong, but because they are right.
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