Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses
The Kyiv Security Forum last Thursday and Friday was a crash course in Ukraine’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Here I’ll do the strengths and weaknesses. I’ve already reported on other aspects of my experience here in Kyiv.
Unity and commitment are gaining advantage
Ukrainians, according to Rasumkov Centre surveys, believe in victory. But my conversations suggest that there are some nuances when it comes to defining victory. A minority are prepared to see the territories Russia occupies, especially Crimea, continue for now under Moscow’s rule. But even they would not accept recognition of Russian sovereignty, which would be a violation of Ukraine’s constitution. Trump was foolish to suggest it. Zelensky can’t do it.
Now that the minerals agreement has been signed, the tables are turning in Ukraine’s favor. Washington and Kyiv are more aligned. President Zelensky has reappropriated the language of peace and put the monkey on Putin’s back. He also learned how to manage President Trump. Better to say “yes, but let me suggest something” than to say simply “no.” The Russian economy is sinking. Europe is undergoing a strategic reawakening. And both Europe and the US are seeing the need to deter Russia’s territorial ambitions, which extend beyond Ukraine.
Ukraine as an asset, not a burden
Ukraine, rather than a burden to NATO, is becoming an asset. After independence, it reformed its intelligence services and refocused them on external threats. They have cooperated well with the West. Kyiv has the technology to attack deep inside Russia and the intelligence needed to use it. The Russian intelligence services still focus mainly on domestic repression. They are finding it difficult to plan and execute sabotage operations inside Ukraine. On the battlefield, Kyiv’s more innovative, higher quality weapons are still beating Russia’s advantages in quantity and manpower. Kyiv has also hit Russian proxies and forces in Libya, Sudan, and Syria.
Ukraine has good engineers who are innovating rapidly. Its designers, suppliers, and manufacturers are working closely together. They are bringing innovations to battle more rapidly than the Russians are adapting. The result is a mostly static front with little use of armor and air cover.
NATO last year provided $50 billion in military aid to Ukraine, equaling Kyiv’s own spending. The June NATO Summit in The Hague is an opportunity. The Europeans should make it clear to the US that they are taking on more burden. But still they need the US to supply some advanced weapons and security guarantees.
Disunity is the main weakness
The theme of the Kyiv Security Conference is “United Again.” That already tells you that disunity is an issue. The “again” refers to Allied success in World War II, which ended in Europe 80 years ago.
Within Europe, disunity comes in two forms. Right-wing nationalist governments in Slovakia and Hungary have tied themselves to Russia. And within many other countries right-wing political forces would like to do the same if they come to power. The Alternative for Germany and the National Rally in France are the two most important. This greatly complicates and limits European decision-making on Ukraine. No proposal at the conference received more applause from the participants than spending Russia’s frozen assets on Ukraine’s military needs. But that requires unanimity at least in the EU.
Divisions within the Alliance
Divisions within NATO are also important. President Trump is erratic. Europe is increasing its defense expenditures and is getting ready to deploy peacekeepers if negotiations succeed. But Trump could fail to provide needed assistance to Ukraine, or even betray it by returning to his pro-Putin stance. Despite some signs of a shift, US pressure on Moscow to negotiate is still minimal. The American negotiator, Witkoff, is unprepared for the task and lacks an serious team. Trump has given Putin far too many carrots. He still hopes to relieve sanctions on Russia and wean it from China, a fool’s errand.
Standardization within the Alliance is weakly implemented. While grenades are standardized in size, in practice the Alliance still produces 14 different ones. In both Europe and the US, military production capacity is inadequate. Neither has been willing to fund military production in Ukraine, which has excess capacity. With financing, it could produce twice as many drones as it does today. Europe has lots of soldiers, but few ready to deploy into conflict. Moscow knows this. It also knows the US wants to reduce its presence in Europe.
Russia won’t do what it says it will do
In thinking about a negotiated outcome to the war, one thought prevails among the Ukrainians, European, and Americans here. Whatever the strengths and weaknesses on the Ukrainian side, Moscow will not implement whatever it signs. The best that can be hoped for is a pause in the war. Conference participants believe Putin is serious about taking control of all of Ukraine. The question is whether Russia or Ukraine would gain more from an opportunity to rest and rearm. My sense is the Ukrainian military thinks Russia would gain more, since it has deeper resources and a bigger population. Some Ukrainian civilians think a pause would refresh political support for the war.
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Culture, religion, and education in Ukraine
I’ve had a chance now to sample–in tiny doses–Kyiv’s cultural, religious, and educational institutions. Some would be impressive even without the war. But conflict makes it doubly difficult to keep high standards. Money is short and people have other things to think about. We shouldn’t expect world class museums, performances, and universities. When we find them, they merit not only praise but support.
A fine opera house
I particularly enjoyed a performance of Semen Gulak-Artemovskiy’s Zaporozhian Beyond The Danube. It’s not the greatest 19th century opera, but it has significance for our time. It concerns Cossacks in Ottoman captivity who want to return to their Zaporozhian homestead. Today, part of that oblast is in Russian hands. Wikipedia tells me the opera premiered in 1863 in Russian in St. Petersburg, but today it is normally performed in Ukrainian, as in Kyiv. The opera house is a handsome one of the traditional variety.
The performance was very good. One or two the singers didn’t seem quite up to their roles, but the chorus and dancers were great. The choreography was mostly chic traditional, but done with real flare. The capacity of humans to defy gravity long enough to twirl gracefully three times in the air always amazes me. I caught no outward manifestations of nationalist sentiment in the audience or cast. But the plot certainly tugs at the heart strings under current circumstances. And yes, it’s a comedy, so the Cossacks do get to go home.
Museums
The National History Museum was another high point. I found it hard to resist its juxtaposition of a weapons exposition with a show featuring haute couture. Best was the 10th century cross archaeologists excavated from the church Volodomyr the Great founded after his conversion in 988.
This and the many other objects found there disprove President Putin’s claim that Russia’s czars founded the Rus. It was more than three hundred years later that Moscow emerged as a governing center.
I can’t compliment the Kyiv Picture Gallery, where I viewed a colorful exhibit by a forgettable trans-Carparthian painter. I think the Khanenko Museum down the street was where I should have gone. The exhibit of ancient coinage and modern paper money at the gargantuan Ukrainian House only had labels in Ukrainian. But I gather it aimed to demonstrate the continuity of Ukrainian statehood.
Religion gets shorter shrift
Ukrainians mostly regard themselves as Orthodox Christians of one variety or another. Seventy per cent are self-avowed “believers.” The Russian Orthodox Patriarchate is now nominally illegal, but some churchmen are still loyal to it. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which exists in two institutional forms, is dominant. The Greek Catholic Church, which the Soviets prohibited, has revived. Originally “Uniate,” it recognizes the authority of the Pope and aims to bridge the gap between Orthodoxy and Roman Catholicism.
Ukrainians told me they are not as devout as many Poles and some Russians. They identify as Orthodox more because of family tradition and national culture than personal faith. But during services the orthodox churches see some prayerful traffic while the service proceeds behind the iconostasis barrier.
The St. Sophia complex, which originated in the 11th century, and St. Andrews, designed in the mid-18th century by Italian architect Bartolomeo Rastrelli, are impressive. The Soviets put them to other uses. The state now administers them. St. Andrews and the park below have spectacular views over the Dnieper River.
The St. Sophia bell tower has a view over much of the center of Kyiv.
Also impressive is the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra religious complex.
A current exhibit there of Crimean artifacts underlines its relationship to Ukrainian history and culture.
The Jews seem ok
What remains of the Jewish community feels fairly comfortable in contemporary Ukraine. Some have chosen, wisely, to focus on ecumenical humanitarian work rather than serving only the Jewish community. The President comes from a Jewish family, though he himself has not been active. The community is, as often, fragmented. The Orthodox are dominant, but there is a Reform congregation.
Babyn Yar, where the Nazis shot more than 33,000 people in late September 1941, is amply memorialized. Maybe overly so. The monuments there seemed less than coherent to me. Two big ones were too explicit for my tastes, but this haunting “symbolic” synagogue hit my chords.
Education is less valued
Here I can only repeat what some Ukrainians have told me. Education is not highly valued in the society, especially now with the war on. English is taught from first grade, but few people on the street speak more than a few words. The quality of the state universities is not high. Two historically important ones get low grades. Their professors’ salaries are low.
The Kyiv School of Economics, where I’ve been speaking, is the exception. Founded only in 1996 and struggling even a decade ago, KSE has raised a lot of private and foreign money. It now sits in a building with a clever internal design a few miles from central Kyiv. But it plans to move at some point to terrain and buildings it has purchased near the Dnieper. By all reports, it pays its professors much better than the other universities in town and subsidizes its students.
The result is an institution that is generating some of the best minds and technocratic work in the country. Its social sciences department chose to be accredited in Germany rather than Ukraine. That is an option open to other Ukrainian institutions but not generally used. KSE also has a thinktank concerned with current issues like how to tighten the EU sanctions on Russia. They are also trying to correct World Bank statistics on Ukraine’s GDP.
Next up
I attended the Kyiv Security Forum. Next up will be some wisdom I gathered there.
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Rebuilding Ukraine: Hopes and Challenges
I’ll be speaking at the Kyiv School of Economics Monday, also via Zoom. Please join:
🗓️ Date and time: May 12, 18:00–19:30 EEST (GMT+3)
📍 Location: KSE, Room 1.08 and online zoom
🔗 Registration via the link –
Contact person: Mariia Yurina, myurina@kse.org.ua
Reflect together on what Ukraine’s future can and should look like.
Please, feel free to share it and invite people.
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First impressions of a peaceful Kyiv at war
I arrived in Kyiv after 10 pm Saturday night, after the 12-hour train ride from Chelm, Poland and the 3.5-hour train ride from Warsaw. It wasn’t an entirely auspicious arrival. The driver who was supposed to meet me showed up late and the train arrived early. Only a Polish acquaintance with whom I shared a cabin on the train saved the night. His Ukrainian girlfriend got in touch with the driver. She also drove us around to the other side of the train station, where he had left his car. I’d have been plenty worried otherwise.
The city
Arriving here is like arriving in no other conflict zone I’ve known. All the lights were on. The McDonalds are open. The traffic lights work, the traffic is intense, and the driving is at mostly moderate speeds. There are no burned out hulks lining the roads. I’ve seen only one Tesla, but late model European, Korean, and Japanese cars are the norm.
Ukraine is a big country. The front lines are hundreds of miles away. Yes, the Russians target Kyiv with missiles and drones, but Ukrainian air defense shoots many down. Kyiv’s population was once close to four million. The few that get through do real harm, even when they don’t hit their target. But the damage is still small compared to the size of the city.
Kyiv sits on hills and is strikingly varied in its architectural styles. A walker finds it visually stimulating. He also finds good espresso never more than 100 meters away. There are few empty storefronts. Lots of restaurants and cafes. The Cyrillic script is impenetrable to those of us who haven’t renewed our acquaintanceship recently. But lots of signs are also posted in English.
Uber and Bolt ride services work here, and there are many buses. But I haven’t used anything but the Metro. Its stations are really, really deep underground and serve also as bomb shelters. I assume the Soviets built them to double for that purpose. The escalators are faster than a Washingtonian is used to. I see Ukrainians dancing to get on too. Purchasing tickets online is easy and fast. Googlemaps works fine, even if my T-mobile service is on the slow side.
The people
Caveat emptor: I am staying in a posh area close to the center and speaking with people only in English. I am also spending time talking to students, professors, and administrators at the Kyiv School of Economics. So my sample selection is toward the relatively well-to-do and well-educated. I’ve talked with only one active-duty soldier. All the rest are civilians.
The overall atmosphere in the street is notably calm and respectful. I haven’t seen even two Ukrainians quarreling with each other. Everyone seems determined to go about their own business without troubling others. There is no pushing or shoving even in the crowded Metro. Drivers rarely honk. Pedestrians wait for the walk sign to turn green and don’t J-walk. Is this discipline a hangover from Soviet times, a new European habit, or a reaction to wartime? I can’t tell.
One Ukrainian has told me it is a reaction to wartime. No one wants to provoke the hidden nervous tension that can explode suddenly.
The downside is lack of big city boisterousness. No street theater or music, no people hawking silly toys or fake Gucci bags, no begging or grifting. Only an occasional woman selling flowers or plants. If there are homeless people, they are not in the center.
War and politics
The war memorials here are like the Vietnam memorial in DC. They focus on the names and personal histories of individual soldiers, not on the generals.
The only battle highlighted is the unsuccessful defense of the Avostal iron and steel plant in Mariupol.
Ukraine lost that one three years ago.
People are tired of the war, which the years have normalized. It barely disrupts Kyivans own lives, but everyone has family members or knows someone who has suffered. They want it to end, but not with a Ukrainian defeat or the prospect of a renewed Russian invasion. What this means isn’t clear, but people think they will know it when they see it. Determined to fight on in the meanwhile, they appreciate American assistance and express disappointment with President Trump’s realignment with Russia.
Kyivans are also unhappy with their own political leadership. They worry about corruption and politicians more concerned with their own careers than with the country’s fate. They bemoan the country’s lack of preparation for war in 2022. Most I’ve talked to don’t want President Zelensky re-elected. They want change, but no one has named a preference. Most Ukrainian presidents since independence have lasted only one term, or less. The one who served two was no paragon. Zelensky will have served six years of a four-year term May 20. That’s due to the constitution’s prohibition on holding elections under martial law.
First impressions
First impressions can be wrong. But overall Kyiv seems to me an attractive, friendly, and well-organized place. Street signs declare: “Kyiv is waiting for you after the victory.” It’s a strange message to those foreigners who are already here, but somehow appropriate as well.
Next up: I’ll hope to have something to say about Kyiv’s cultural, educational, and governing institutions.
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Failure and disgrace in 100 days
As they Trump Administration approaches its 100th day April 30, the failures are glaring.
Failures
The most obvious failures are in negotiations. Trump himself laid out the agenda. He wanted:
- The Canal back from Panama.
- To buy Greenland from Denmark.
- Canada as the 51st state.
- Gaza voluntarily emptied and redeveloped as a resort.
- The Ukraine war ended.
- A better nuclear deal with Iran.
- Trade deals that would “correct” bilateral imbalances.
None of this is happening. The first three items are fool’s errands hardly worth discussing. The four later ones are more serious propositions.
Even winning would be losing
The Gaza-a-Lago proposition was a green light for war crimes. The Israelis are trying to force Palestinians out of Gaza. They are failing so far, but they will no doubt persist. This is egregious even from a religious perspective: Biblical Jews did not live in Gaza. No religion, certainly not mine, can approve displacing two million people to please a real estate developer.
Trump is proposing to end the Ukraine war on terms favorable to Russia. Why is not clear, but Moscow would keep the territory it has taken, including Crimea. Kyiv would have to recognize Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. Ukraine would get no security guarantee from the US, which would gain privileged access to its minerals. This is a bad deal, one that that will not end the war, even if Kyiv and Moscow sign on. At best, it will pause the hostilities.
The better nuclear deal with Iran is a possibility. That’s because Trump is prepared to lift many if not all the sanctions. Biden refused to do that, because Washington imposed some of them for human rights violations. The Trump Administration doesn’t care about those. So a better nuclear deal for Trump means American endorsement of the Islamic Republic’s oppression. Not sure that is what Americans really want.
The Administration claims to be negotiating tariff deals with 90 countries. Unless they lower tariffs relative to the previous Administration, they will raise costs for American consumers. The most important of the negotiations is with China. That will end with higher tariffs both on Chinese imports to the US and on American exports to China. Yes, the US government will gain some revenue, though nowhere near as much as the Administration claims. And most of that revenue will come from Americans. Inflation will accelerate. Recession looms.
The disgraces
Trump supports Israeli war crimes in Gaza, Russian victory in Ukraine, endorsement of Islamic Republic human rights abuses, and trade deals that raise prices and slow growth for Americans. Add that to attacking American universities, arbitrary arrest, imprisonment, and deportation of immigrants, and canceling of vital scientific research.
The Administration is weakening the United States. That is the only thing at which it is succeeding in its disgraceful first 100 days.
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Heading for Kyiv, thinking about post-war
I’m traveling to Kyiv this week to give presentations at the Kyiv School of Economics on preparing for post-war transition. I don’t think that is likely soon. But whenever it happens, I hope readiness for it will improve the prospects of success. I’ll also be trying to understand how Ukrainians are thinking about the war and prospects for peace. That is in preparation for the revision of my 2019 book. From War to Peace included a rudimentary discussion of Ukraine in the final chapter. For the 2027 edition, I hope to do much better. I’ve already written a chapter on the country’s long and tortured history. Now it’s time to understand its present and future.
I undertook this trip on my own initiative. Initially I thought I would try for a Fulbright. But Fulbright Ukraine was closed even before the post-January 20 evisceration of the US government. Now who knows when, or ever, Fulbright will reopen. Having liberated myself from classroom teaching, I am free to travel whenever. The doctoral students I supervise are mostly in touch via Zoom, which works better for individuals than classes. Best to just go, not wait on unknowns.
The video above is from a recent appearance of Economics Nobelist James Robinson at KSE. I doubt he is right about Ukraine lacking a national project. But that will be one of the questions I’ll be probing over the next few weeks when talking with Ukrainians.
No it’s not safe
Security is job #1. Kyiv isn’t suffering as much as some of the front line cities like Kharkiv and Kherson. But I gather there are daily/nightly barrages of drones and missiles, some of which get through.
The sky is big, as is the city. The situation is unlike Sarajevo, where you had to know where to walk so you weren’t visible to the snipers. It’s more like Tirana during its 1997 chaos. There gunfire was frequent but random (and much smaller caliber than in Kyiv). I suppose I’ll learn more when there about which areas and times are more dangerous than others. But it is best to assume nothing is safe, especially at night.
Preparations are complicated
I’ve talked with people who have been to Kyiv recently. But in a conflict zone you never know what is available and what isn’t. So I’ll try to take everything I might conceivably need. That isn’t easy if you are determined not to check bags. Best to keep it all in tow, but to assume that the bigger bag could get separated.
So pills, computer, mouse, wires, chargers, power supplies, the right plugs. Health and communications are vital. All have to fit in along with enough underwear to last at least half the stay in Kyiv. That way I won’t have to do laundry more than once. It’s cooler in Kyiv than in DC, which means a few warmer things that take up far too much room. I’ll wear the bulkier stuff.
I’ve got my powerpoint presentations in draft. Of course they’ll need changes once I get a better feel for the situation. Flexibility and adaptability are vital.
Talking with people at war
Wartime is hard and instructive. People in Kyiv have suffered through more than three years of bombardment. That’s on top of the seven years since Russia seized Crimea and invaded southeastern Ukraine. In my talks, I need to give them an opportunity to express themselves. They know better than I do what their post-war goals will be.
I’ll be doing that through what some of you will know as a “yellow sticky” exercise. I’ll ask participants to write their top priorities for after the war on yellow stickies. Then I’ll group them on a wall or whiteboard. Ukrainian priorities may differ from those I expect. So I’ll need to be mentally agile and ready to adjust my presentation appropriately.
The orange elephant in the room
The Ukrainians will wonder what’s going on in DC, which under Biden was Kyiv’s best friend. I’ll tell them what I understand:
- President Trump has aligned himself with President Putin.
- Nevertheless the American people want to send more support to Ukraine:
Robinson has it right: American politicians have taken an illiberal turn. But American popular sentiment is still pro-Ukraine. This contradiction won’t be satisfying to Ukrainians, who have suffered mightily and have good reason to be disappointed.
They may press me on why Trump supports Putin. I can imagine lots of reasons:
- personal financial gain,
- blackmail for past behavior,
- gratitude for electoral support,
- admiration for Putin’s autocratic success,
- genuine (but sorely mistaken) conviction that Russia can be weaned from alignment with China, Iran, and other US adversaries.
I suspect all have some validity. But there is precious little evidence which factor is primary and which are secondary. I think we’ll know some day. But it won’t be soon.
Post-war Ukraine
The main challenge for me is to help Ukrainians think about their country post-war. Too many countries fight wars only to be disappointed, even when they win. That has been the case for Ukraine in the many past wars conducted on its territory. This war should end with a prosperous, democratic Ukraine irreversibly on its way into the European Union. If I can contribute to that goal, my trip will be worthwhile.
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