Aggression needs a firm and effective response
Albioneta Ademi of Kosovo’s Gazeta Express asked questions. I replied:
Q: NATO-KFOR still did not respond to Serbia’ s request on deploying military in Kosovo. Why do you think it took so long to “analyze” such request?
A: I doubt they will ever answer. It’s a question that was asked as a provocation, not to get an answer.
Q: In November, Prime Minister Kurti said that Serbia aims to destabilize the north of Kosovo to cover the EU proposal rejection. Do you agree with Kurti? What’s hidden after the Serbia’s actions?
A: Albin knows better than I do. I think the evidence is in favor of what he says. Nothing is hidden. Serbia is trying to make it impossible for serious normalization talks to occur.
Q: Kosovo is waiting for KFOR to act saying Kosovo Police is ready and capable to take off the barricades but still Kurti is giving time to KFOR. Why so?
A: Because he is wise. It would be far better not to risk his police in a direct confrontation with people whose sole purpose is to destabilize.
Q: N1 (a CNN affiliated media in Serbia) reported on Monday that Serbia deployed its military close to Jarinje cross border. This can remind one what Russia did before Ukraine’s invasion. Is this a ‘benign’ threat, a show of force for internal use in Serbia or Kosovans should be really concerned?
A: Whenever military forces are deployed in an offensive mode, it is wise to take it seriously. There are no benign threats.
Q: Do you think the US and EU are doing enough in de-escalation? DAS Escobar and other EU’s representatives visited Kosovo and Serbia in mid-December. What is your comment on their way of addressing to tensions?
A: The US and EU have tried to appease Serbia by talking up the Association of Serb-majority municipalities. That appeasement has failed to produce moderation. Instead it has whetted Belgrade’s appetite. Brussels and Washington need a course correction.
Q: With all these developments, are you optimistic that spring will come with an Agreement or all of this will lead elsewhere?
A: I always hope to be wrong, but I see no prospect of an Agreement by spring. Serbia is playing the Milosevic/Putin game of threatening a neighbor. We know where that led in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Georgia, and Ukraine. How many lessons before we learn? Aggression needs a firm and effective response.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Trouble in Kosovo comes from Serbia
I did this interview for Spat Blakcori of Pristina’s TV1 yesterday:
Q: It has been more than 2 weeks since there are barricades in the North of Mitrovica. KFOR has yet to make a move and remove the barricades. Do you think they should act immediately?
A: They should not have allowed the barricades, but now that they are there they need to proceed with caution.
Q: What do you think about the criminal groups in the North of Mitrovica. Should Vucic be responsible for their actions?
A: Yes, they are agents of the Serbian secret service for which he is responsible. None of this would be happening without Vucic’s approval. Brnabic’s tweets are confirmation of that.
Q: Do you think that the approach of the West is too soft towards the Serbian president?
A: Yes. I don’t understand why the West has failed to react appropriately to Vucic’s provocations, which are blatant and obvious. I fear there are those in both Washington and Brussels who sympathize with Belgrade’s effort to establish separate governance for Serbs in northern Kosovo.
I also did this one for Luli Gajtani of RTV Dukagjini:
Q: How do you see the situation created in the north of Kosovo, what do you think would be a long-term solution that would no longer produce tensions?
A: The long term solution will be mutual recognition and decentralized governance in Kosovo, which already exists.
Q: Should the forces of KFOR or the Police of Kosovo forcefully remove the barricades located in the northern municipalities of Kosovo, or do you see another solution?
A: They should not have allowed construction of the barricades, but now they need to be cautious in removing them. Negotiation from a position of strength would be my preference.
Q: Serbia has admitted that the barricades were placed with their permission, how do you think the international community should act?
A: There should be consequences. Brussels and Washington are better equipped than I am to figure out what those should be.
Q: Do you think that Miroslav Lajcak and Josep Borrell should intensify the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue? Do you think that the dialogue would speed up the solution of the problems in the north of Kosovo?
A: I doubt they can speed up the dialogue without levying consequences for Belgrade, which has intentionally destabilized northern Kosovo in order to block progress in the dialogue.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Don’t let aggression by destabilization pay
Northern Kosovo is in its third week of chaos. Serb houligans block the roads, attack journalists, and shoot at police and KFOR troops. The houligans are not random thugs. Belgrade pays and controls many of them. Whatever the initial justifications for this rogue behavior, the net effect is to undermine the dialogue with Pristina and prevent serious consideration of the still unpublished and therefore hazy French-German proposal for interim “normalization.”
What Belgrade wants
What Belgrade wants is Pristina’s commitment to its much-vaunted Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASM) inside Kosovo. But the disorder is proving beyond any doubt that yielding on that point under current conditions would be disastrous for the Kosovo state. The powers behind the barricades would then become the powers running an institution the Kosovo state had recognized and accepted. It would be beyond foolish to do that. Not least because those powers are criminal and tied to Serbia’s secret services.
The US and EU should be embarrassed
This should embarrass all those American and European diplomats who have pushed the ASM. Prime among them is Gabe Escobar, the State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Western Balkans, but State Department Counselor Derek Chollet and EU Foreign and Security Policy chief Josep Borrell share in the ignominy. They thought giving Belgrade the ASM would moderate its views. That was foolhardy. What they got instead were Vucic’s efforts at destabilization. They also got a series of truly offensive tweets from his Prime Minister, aimed at the Germans and other Europeans. These include a push to deploy Serbian troops to Kosovo and make it clear Belgrade is uninterested for now in pursuing its declared ambition of EU membership.
What is to be done now
Hotter heads in Kosovo want KFOR to tear down the barricades, in cooperation with the Kosovo police. Unless carefully prepared and executed, that could make a first-rate mess and bring opprobrium on all involved. Far better, is to build up the forces in the north and negotiate an end to the disorder from a position of strength. Only if that negotiation fails should force be used, decisively and effectively. The ringleaders of the disorder should be arrested and either tried in Kosovo or expelled to Serbia, provided Belgrade promises convincingly to prosecute.
That is not enough
Europe and the US need to make it clear to Serbia that the promotion of disorder in Kosovo has consequences. I like Jasmin Mujanović‘s proposal:
Specifically, the 5 EU non-recognizers must see how they’re facilitating Serbia’s brinkmanship. Fully recognizing Kosovo’s sovereignty and allowing it to begin its EU/NATO membership processes is something the West can do today, req no input from Belgrade, Moocow, or Beijing.
This makes sense. Even if one or two of the non-recognizers were to proceed as Jasmin suggests it would make a big difference to Belgrade’s belligerency. This way or another, the West needs to show that destabilization is not in Serbia’s interests and should never be repeated.
Why should anyone care?
Even I find it hard to focus on Kosovo while Ukraine is suffering a Russian war of aggression. We should however care about Kosovo, because Vucic is pursuing in Kosovo Vladimir Putin’s 2014 strategy in Donbas. Putin was challenging Slobodan Milosevic’s 1993 strategy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Any ambiguity about the Western reaction in Kosovo will feed similar moves elsewhere. Vucic has chosen to align himself with Russia in the tradition of Milosevic. Aggression by destabilization anywhere cannot be allowed to pay.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 26
– WSJ has good summary of current factors in Ukraine war.-
– WSJ also reports on US military activities in Syria.
– Lawfare summarizes and comments on Jan 6 committee report.
– Jim Fallows, a former presidential speechwriter, analyzes Zelensky address.
– More Jan 6 interview transcripts here.
Learned something new: USG allows nonprofits to fund temporary government jobs. Politico reports; GAO assesses.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 24
– President Biden issued a signing statement on the new NDAA, indicating he would narrowly construe several provisions in accordance with his views on executive authority.
-NYT has a long ticktock on the operations of the January 6 committee.
– Hill notes DC national guard wasn’t purposely delayed on Jan. 6.
– Law profs praise passage of new law giving Congress greater role in executive agreements.
– For your viewing pleasure, Politico lists best political movies and television shows of 2022.
Happy Holidays! CS
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 22
– The president has sent Congress his twice-yearly report on troops abroad under the War Powers law. The letter says the US has combat-equipped forces in 15 named countries, plus 90,000 in NATO and others “postured outside Afghanistan.”
– CFR has good data on US & other support to Ukraine
– CRS reports on Ukraine aid from State/Foreign ops
– AP reports that Zelensky took train to Poland, accompanied by US ambassador, then flew in USAF plane to DC.
– NYT says analysts forecast stalemate in Ukraine.
– WaPo notes Biden/Zelensky differences.
– Politico reports GOP opposition to future aid.
– RollCall lists biggest earmarkers.
– Vox summarizes new Electoral Count Act in omnibus.
– Defense News says some Taiwan aid was changed from grants to loans.
– Intercept says Twitter whitelisted unacknowledged Centcom accounts.
RSS - Posts
