Tag: 2020 Election
Stevenson’s army, May 1
-WaPo says the administration is developing a package of anti-China measures,
many extreme and unprecedented, like demanding reparations for pandemic
costs and refusing to pay interest on Chinese-held US bonds.[As I said
in class, I support vigorous US measures to thwart Chinese military
expansion and to compete economically, especially in advanced
technologies. But I resent Trump’s weaponizing these measures mainly for
his political campaign and as a distraction from his delays and
failures handling the pandemic.]
– Part of this effort, NYT reports, is pressuring the intelligence community to prove Chinese culpability for release of the coronavirus.
– And SecState Pompeo was already in a pissing contest with Beijing.
– WSJ profiles national security adviser O’Brien, who says NSC staff is now down to the 120s.
– Yes, the FISA court consists of Article III [life-tenured] federal judges.
– NYT reports that Zoom sessions can be bad for your health.
And while I’m in a grumpy mood, how about this:
Lawmakers Vote by Mail to Roll Back Vote by Mail
April 30, 2020 at 3:10 pm EDT
“An emergency plan for Louisiana’s delayed spring elections was approved by the state Legislature after Republican lawmakers rolled back an expansion of mail-in ballots for people concerned about the coronavirus,” the Baton Rouge Advocate reports.
“Lawmakers voted by mail on the emergency plan.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 26
– George Will worries that courts are limiting Congress’ power of the purse. This week an appeals court hears a case, and the issue may turn on “standing” to sue.
-Ed Kilgore says there’s a constitutional way for Republicans to steal the presidential election this year.
– Are troop deployment numbers a Constitutional question?
– Lawfare history lesson: when FDR seized Montgomery Ward.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 31
– The British missed it, too. They had a pandemic wargame and ignored the results.
-WSJ says hidden Chinese lending threatens emerging markets.
– DOD wants more of its budget secret.
– Report says Xi flattered Trump into dropping “Wuhan virus”
The uphill fight to vote by mail.
WH has released a 5g strategy report.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Iranian parliamentary “elections”
February 21 marked the 11th Iranian parliamentary election. The Wilson Center hosted an event After Parliamentary Elections: Iran’s Political Future on February 26 with a panel of scholars to interpret the aftermath . Robin Wright, a USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow served as the moderator, with panel participation from Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, Ariane Tabatabai, Visiting Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, and Kenneth Katzman, Specialist on Middle East Affairs at the Congressional Research Service.
Wright stated the facts that led it to be considered the “most rigged Iranian election in history”:
- 90 sitting members of parliament were disqualified for reelection,
- only 19 reformists won seats (down from 121 in the 2016 elections),
- conservatives and hardliners won 221 of the 290 seats, comprising 76% of parliament, compared to 29% in 2016.
- voter turnout was poor due to dissatisfaction with the government about the downing of the Ukrainian plane and the public health threat of coronavirus.
Significance of this Parliament
Vaez cautioned against interpreting these election results as unprecedented. In 2004, the Guardian Council used similar tactics to disqualify 80 members of the parliament and paved the road to Ahmadinejad’s election in 2005. Tabatabai noted that the hardline win comes at a time of lower voter turnout, illustrating the widening gap between the population and the regime.
Vaez speculates that the push for a government-selected parliament is due to the Supreme Leader’s desire to conduct structural reforms. It would be more challenging to introduce constitutional reforms with a parliament ideologically opposed.
Katzman emphasized that the regime is by no means on its back feet. Is continuing its aggressive, confident stance. He pointed to the steps officials took to fix the election as an example of their resounding confidence. He pointed to Lebanon and Iraq as examples where political protests have resulted in resignations and government concessions. This has not occurred in Iran despite popular dissatisfaction with the leadership.
Militarization of Politics
Tabatabai and Vaez both noted that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) made monumental gains in this election. The next speaker of the parliament could be a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Tabatabai thinks the Guards aim centralize and reassert power. Katzman noted the increased ability for the IRGC to influence and project power in the region with more parliamentary support.
Vaez noted that Parliament, Majles, does not play a monumental role in foreign policy , but it can impeach members of the cabinet and withhold approval, leading to a lame duck presidency.
Presidential Elections : Impact of US Election on Iran
Vaez suggests that the election of a hardline president in 2021 depends mainly on two factors,
- The new elected Parliament’s performance and
- the 2020 elections in the United States.
If there is a US president whom the Iranian government believes it can negotiate with, Vaez doubts that Iran will elect someone like Ahmadinejad. The panelists emphasized the close knit nature of these two elections and the monumental global impacts they will have.
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Stevenson’s army, February 21
SecState Pompeo announces start of violence reduction week leading to a Taliban deal.
WSJ reports more cooperation on Iran sanctions.
Both NYT and WaPo report DNI was fired after Trump learned his office had told House Intelligence Committee that Russia is already interfering in US 2020 elections in support of Trump.
Big study of nonvoters shows they mirror the voting population.
Lawfare says secret international agreements are still not being reported as required by law.
In further proof of my argument that some people die only in the Times, which reports deaths of interesting people, here’s the story about the man who invented computer cutting and pasting.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 12
– Last year I asked a group of friends with longtime experience in the US intelligence community whether I should be worried about Huawei. Sure, they said. But would China really use the company to spy on us? I asked. They responded, we would if we could. And now we know we did. That’s the story released by WaPo yesterday and on 3 pages today. And then last night, NSA O’Brien disclosed that Huawei already can access telecom networks.
-A few days ago I praised the Harris & Sullivan article calling for economics to play a bigger role in US national security strategy. Dan Drezner says, hold on,not so fast, and questions our ability to do economics smartly. Since I respect his views on so many topics, his points are worth considering.
– Duterte says begone to US military forces, triggering a 180 period ending our status of forces agreement. He’s cozying up to China.
– NYT says Trump has tentatively approved a deal with the Taliban.
– O’Brien defends Vindman dismissal.
– FP article says Trump Israel plan is like one Israel proposed in 1979.
– And New Hampshire? I say there’s now a better than 33% chance that the Democratic convention will take more than one ballot to choose a nominee next July in Milwaukee –the first such situation since the Democratic convention in 1952.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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