Tag: 2020 Election
Stevenson’s army, June 8
– Two Senate committees have issued a bipartisan staff report on the January 6 insurrection. Politico summarizes.
– FBI seizes most of the Bitcoin paid as ransom by Colonial Pipeline. [See, it’s a criminal matter, not national security retaliation.]
– FP reports internal dissent over Pacific basing plans.
– Biden overturns Trump plan to put Greenland under NorthCom.
Some of you may remember my stories about how Walmart, Microsoft, Apple all had DC offices with fewer than a handful of people in the early 2000s. Then they learned that what the govt did could affect their businesses. Now they — and Facebook and Amazon — have big DC offices. And they know how to grow their businesses. See what Amazon does.
A pro-foreign aid group [yes, it exists] has a summary of the administration budget.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 17
-Why didn’t US win the Afghan war? NYT’s Max Fisher says we pursued a fundamentally conflicted policy – strong central government and no reconciliation with Taliban. Fred Kaplan says it was unwinnable from the start.
– What about the contractors? Reuters says some will leave.
– Where’s the swagger now? State IG says Pompeo broke the rules.
– Who screwed up on refugee limits? NYT reports Administration disarray and political pushback. Politico finds critics of HHS head.
– Why did Biden win? Academic study says losing down-ballot candidates boosted turnout in red states.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 17
– DNI report says Russia and Iran — but not China — interfered in 2020 elections against Biden. Report here
– Ukraine, as US urging, blocked Chinese acquisition of defense firm.
– DARPA is also countering foreign investments in US startups.
– CNAS has new program on geoeconomic tools.
– Some congressional Democrats push 20% increase in international affairs funding.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Trump’s win in the Senate could spell his party’s loss
Donald Trump’s impeachment trial has turned into a slam dunk. The Democrats have demonstrated beyond a shadow of doubt that he incited the rioting on January 6 and failed to do what he could to call it off, in a vain effort to prevent certification of the Electoral College vote after a months-long campaign of lies about electoral fraud. His defense was to claim he could say anything he wanted because the constitution guarantees free speech and anyway he shouldn’t be tried because he is no longer president.
Lots of luck with that. The Senate already voted on the jurisdictional question and the free speech argument is specious: he is accused of violating his oath of office by inciting an insurrection against people performing a constitutionally-mandated procedure. There is no free speech defense from that accusation. The poor performance of Trump’s lawyers and the stunningly well-organization presentations by the Democratic House “managers” were both notable. On the merits, Trump has lost.
But odds are he will win the vote for acquittal. Too many Republicans joined him in his lies about election fraud for the Democrats to be able to turn the 17 needed to convict with a two-thirds majority. They would be convicting themselves as well as Trump. They also fear he will support rivals in their primaries if they vote against him. Theirs is a remarkable display of cowardice.
This quisling behavior may also doom the Republican Party. I would like to see Trump held accountable by a conviction and exclusion from future office, but the Democrats may find acquittal more to their political advantage than conviction.
Conviction with the necessary Republican votes would signal the departure of the Republican Party from Trumpism. Their House incumbents could then run in 2022 credibly claiming that they had purged the poison, as Nikki Halley is already doing, and would return to their traditional vocation as a right-of-center party, one with truth-based positions on the economy, immigration, race, trade, and other major issues. They could try to recruit more minority voters and present themselves as champions of self-reliance, frugality, Christianity, and traditional values.
That is going to be much harder if Trump is acquitted. He will then remain the dominant force in the Republican Party, carrying all the baggage of Trumpism: racism, tax cuts for the rich, growing deficits rather than jobs, fighting and losing trade wars, failing to fight the Covid-19 epidemic, and building an unnecessary and fabulously expensive border fence (not paid for by Mexico). None of those features of Trumpism are going to look pretty in two years, when Trump will insist on more QAnon conspiracists as Republican candidates.
Forty per cent of Americans will still stick with Trump’s GOP, which is enough to get it close to a majority in the House and Senate due to gerrymandering and Republican strength in less populated states, which have two senators like California and New York. But it is nowhere near enough to win the popular vote for President, even if it wins the Electoral College. Only one Republican (George W.) has won both the White House and the popular vote since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Joe Biden’s popularity is already well above Trump’s peak. He (or Kamala Harris) may well do better against a GOP candidate in 2024 who tries to follow in Trump’s footsteps than one who has managed a return to serious conservatism. Trump’s win in the Senate could well spell his party’s loss.
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Stevenson’s army, February 1
Dan Drezner has a good analysis of how Biden’s presidency is different from Trump’s — notably the refusal to comment or act on a wide range of newsworthy topics.
WSJ notes that the Treasury-run CFIUS is broadening its investigations of Chinese investments in US startups. [Be advised: CFIUS is an important part of US foreign economic policy.]
WSJ also reports that the CIA is changing its recruitment efforts to attract millennials.
So far so good for SecState Blinken. [But honeymoons always end.]
NYT says GOP can recapture House in 2022 just by normal gerrymandering.
NYT has long long tick-tock on Trump’s efforts to overturn election.
Axios says Trump’s trade war failed miserably.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 24
-WaPo notes that the Senate is still stymied by a failure to agree on new organizing resolution.
-NPR interviewed former Senate staffer Adam Jentleson about his new book condemning the filibuster. [Many of you know that I support the filibuster for strategic and tactical reasons, but I want to keep it safe, legal, and rare — by making it harder to start and prolong. I suggest filibuster opponents, now mostly Democrats, consider that the loss of just one Democratic Senator could, overnight, permit majoritarian rule by the GOP.]
WSJ now confirms what NYT and WaPo also learned — that Trump was narrowly stopped from using Justice to overturn the election results.
Vanity Fair reports Trump’s pressure on the acting SecDef in the final days.
TR does a FONOP.
I’ve long viewed Sen. Tom Cotton [R-Ark.] as Dean Acheson did Sen. Robert Taft [GOP leader in early 1950s]: “He has a brilliant mind, until he makes it up.” It seems that Cotton gilded his military resume.
NYT notes we have a serious GPS vulnerability problem.
Good read: I’ve just finished Peter Westwick’s fascinating study of the history of stealth technology. Like Paul Kennedy’s book on the problem-solving engineers of WW2, Westwick shows how middle-level technicians brainstormed, bargained, and compromised over issues and largely succeeded. I’ve also never seen a better case for funding alternate R&D programs instead of settling on a sole source.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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