Tag: Afghanistan
Peace Picks: April 15-April 19
Abundant interesting events in a busy week:
1. Tribal Societies & Counterterrorism in Pakistan, Monday April 15/ 11:00am-12:30pm, US Institute of Peace
Venue: Us Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Ambassador Akbar Ahmed, Peter Bergen, Hamid Khan
In recent months discussions around drone strikes have grown increasingly heated with claims and counter-claims around their legality, morality, and/or effectiveness as a counterterrorism weapon. Amid the heated disputes between diplomats, politicians, lawyers, and civil society activists, the views of those most directly affected by the drone strikes – those living in tribal communities in border regions – have yet to be heard.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.usip.org/events/tribal-societies-counterterrorism-in-pakistan)
2. Takedown: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda, Monday April 15/ 1:00-2:30pm, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Philip Mudd, Peter Bergen
On September 11, 2001, as Central Intelligence Agency analyst Philip Mudd rushed out of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, he could not anticipate how the terror unleashed that day would change the world of intelligence and his life as a CIA officer. Mudd, now a fellow with the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program, would later serve as deputy director of the CIA’s rapidly expanding Counterterrorist Center and then as senior intelligence adviser at the FBI.
Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies for a conversation with Philip Mudd and Peter Bergen about Mudd’s new book, Takedown: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda, which provides a first-person account of his role in two organizations that changed dramatically after 9/11. The book also sheds light on the inner workings of the intelligence community during the global counterterror campaign.
Copies of the book will be available for purchase.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/takedown_the_hunt_for_al_qaeda)
3. Afghanistan’s Economic Transition, Monday April 15/ 2:00-3:30pm, US Institute for Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: William Byrd, Borany Pehn, Fatema Sumar, Robert Saum
Afghanistan’s current transition – involving drawdown of international combat troops and hand-over of security responsibilities to Afghan security forces as well as reductions in international aid – is now well into its second year. Along with the security and political dimensions (including the next cycle of presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014 and 2015, respectively), the economic transition is an important factor influencing the success of the overall transition process. The recent publication of the World Bank’s study ‘Transition in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond 2014′ provides an opportunity to review progress, consider key issues, and assess prospects. This event, after a brief presentation and discussants’ comments, is intended to generate an open and frank discussion on economic transition issues and policy options.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.usip.org/events/afghanistans-economic-transition)
4. Author Event: Shadow Lives: The Forgotten Women of the War on Terror, Monday, April 15/ 6:30-8:00pm, Institute for Policy Studies
Venue: Busboys & Poets @ 14th & V, 2021 14th St, NW, Washington, D.C. 20009
Come to a compelling discussion about the unseen side of the ‘9/11 wars,’ as IPS Fellow Phyllis Bennis interviews author Victoria Brittain about her new book, Shadow Lives: The Forgotten Women of the War on Terror. The book reveals the impact the ‘9/11 wars’ has had on the wives and families of men incarcerated in Guantanamo, or in prison or under house arrest in Britain and the US. Brittain shows how these families have been made socially invisible and a convenient scapegoat for the state in order to exercise arbitrary powers under the cover of the ‘War on Terror.’
Her book reveals how a culture of intolerance and cruelty have left individuals at the mercy of the security services’ unverifiable accusations and punitive punishments. Both a ‘j’accuse’ and a testament to the strength and humanity of the families, Shadow Lives shows the methods of incarceration and social control being used by the British state and gives a voice to the families whose lives have been turned upside down. In doing so it raises urgent questions about civil liberties which no one can afford to ignore.
After the discussion there will be the customary book signing by Brittain.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.ips-dc.org/events/author_event_shadow_lives_the_forgotten_women_of_the_war_on_terror)
5. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Assessing the Current State & Debating the Future, Monday April 15 6:30-8:00pm, US-Middle East Youth Network
Venue: Georgetown University, 3700 O St NW, Washington DC, White-Gravenor Hall, Room 208
Speakers: Matthew Kroenig, Colin Kahl, Michael Eisenstadt
As negotiations between Iran and the international community continue, progress towards reaching a resolution regarding Iran’s disputed nuclear program has all but stalled. What are the current prospects for the success of diplomacy? Is a military option viable, sustainable, and/or worse than the alternative, political track? Can the US prevent a preemptive strike by Israel? What ramifications might this have for regional stability and nonproliferation efforts? What might the coming months hold for the conflict surrounding Iran’s nuclear program? Explore these questions and more with Professors Colin Kahl, Matthew Kroenig, and Mr. Michael Eisenstadt from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy this Monday at 6:30pm in WGR208!
For more information see:
(http://usmeyouthnetwork.org/)
6. The Future of Egypt’s Economy, Tuesday April 16 11:30am-1:30pm, Aspen Institute
Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW Suite 700
Speakers: Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Hisham Fahmy, Daniel Kurtzer
Surrounded by political uncertainty, the Egyptian economy has experienced a sharp decline over the past two years. While the Egyptian government struggles to maintain macroeconomic stability and international confidence, it faces significant challenges; unemployment continues to increase, and the country’s key sectors have seen a sluggish recovery.
Partners for a New Beginning is organizing a roundtable discussion to address economic challenges as well as opportunities to overcome them. Panelists will address the role of the private sector and international community in driving economic growth in Egypt.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/04/16/future-egypts-economy)
7. Domestic Drivers of Turkey’s Democratic Transformation, Tuesday, April 16 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, SETA Foundation at Washington DC
Venue: SETA Foundation at Washington, DC, 1025 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Sener Akturk, Kadir Ustun
Turkey’s democratization process over the past decade has been the subject of much debate. Many studies identify external dynamics such as Turkey’s EU membership negotiations as main drivers of democratic progress. Internal dynamics that made possible various democratic initiatives, such as the reforms allowing for much broader ethnic, linguistic, and religious minority rights, however, remain underappreciated. As the country seeks to consolidate its democracy through a new civilian constitution, lessons from the past decade will be critical to identify contours of democratic change in Turkey.
On April 16, 2013, the Young Scholars on Turkey (YSOT) Program will host a discussion on the domestic drivers of Turkey’s democratic transformation. The panel will feature Sener Akturk, Assistant Professor at Koc University in Istanbul, author of a new book, Regimes of Ethnicity and Nationhood in Germany, Russia, and Turkey, recently published by Cambridge University Press. Kadir Ustun, Research Director at SETA DC, will moderate the discussion.
Register for the event:
http://setadc.org/events/50-upcoming-events/465-domestic-drivers-of-turkeys-democratic-transformation
8. Innovation and Peacebuilding: Breaking Down Silos and Engaging Civil Society, Tuesday, April 16 / 1:00pm – 4:00pm, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Jan Eliasson, Melanie Greenberg, Jessica Berns, Al Maamoun Baba Lamine Keita, John Agoglia, Paula Gaviria Betancur and more
The U.S. Institute of Peace in partnership with the Alliance for Peacebuilding is pleased to co-sponsor an afternoon of events that will explore innovation in peacebuilding, and provide examples of working across silos to achieve more stable and durable peace.
Jan Eliasson, deputy secretary-general of the United Nations, will open the afternoon with a discussion on the challenges facing the United Nations in Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding. During his career as one of the world’s top diplomats, Ambassador Eliasson also served as the special envoy of the U.N. Secretary-General for Darfur from 2007-2008. Preceding his work in Darfur, he was foreign minister of Sweden, after serving as Sweden’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2000-2005. His work has focused on mediation missions in the Middle East and Europe, as well as on broader topics such as landmines, humanitarian action, and conflict prevention. Ambassador Eliasson was appointed as the first U.N. undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs in 1992. He was also a senior visiting scholar at USIP in 2009.
Following the conversation with Ambassador Eliasson and to launch the Alliance for Peacebuilding’s new semi-annual, online publication, Building Peace: A Forum for Peace and Security in the 21st Century, a select group of Building Peace authors will frame a discussion on peacebuilding approaches to the complex conflict in Mali. Drawing on the perspectives shared in their Building Peace articles, these authors will lead a discussion about how peacebuilders can work with local citizens and international actors to address root causes of conflict, and bring security to war-torn societies.
To register for the event click here:
(http://www.eventbrite.com/event/6128655975#)
9. Mobilizing the Diaspora: Opportunities for Engagement in N. Africa, Tuesday, April 16 / 2:00pm – 5:00pm, Aspen Institute
Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW, Suite 700, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Walter Isaacson
This event will feature two roundtable discussions focused on supporting entrepreneur mentorship and education as well as building out access to finance and investment. There will also be an opportunity for networking to allow for diaspora and other US stakeholders interested in the region to connect.
To register for the event click here:
(http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/04/16/mobilizing-diaspora-opportunities-engagement-n-africa)
10. The Second Arab Awakening: Revolution, Democracy and the Islamist Challenge from Tunis to Damascus, Wednesday, April 17 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speaker: Adeed Dawisha
When, in early 2011, people poured onto the streets of Arab cities to demand freedom, it was not for the first time. An earlier spate of revolutions swept the Arab world in the 1950s and 1960s. Those revolutions that had promised so much bequeathed the recent crop of Arab despots. Dawisha puts the recent Arab awakening into historical context, then traces the progress and fates so far of revolutions from Tunis to Damascus, examining the overthrow of tyrants in some cases and the more brutal repression in others. Finally, he explores the threats and opportunities facing the victorious revolutionaries, the prospects for democratic transformations, and the meaning and consequences of Islamist victories at the polls.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rsvp?eid=26660&pid=112)
11. Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure with Diplomacy, Wednesday, April 17 / 12:15pm – 2:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: William Luers, Ambassador James Dobbins, Thomas Pickering, James Walsh, Carla Hills
This event is held in collaboration with The Iran Project.
Former senior national security officials, military officers and experts with decades of Middle East experience have joined to present a balanced report on the strategic options for dealing with Iran. Moving the debate past politics and unexamined assumptions they argue that the time has come for Washington to strengthen the diplomatic track in the two track policy of pressure and diplomacy that has characterized current U.S. policy.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rsvp?eid=26908)
12. Heaven on Earth: A Journey Through Sharia Law, Wednesday, April 17 / 3:00pm – 4:30pm, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052, Lindner Family Commons
Speaker: Sadakat Kadri
Legal historian and human rights attorney Sadakat Kadri argues that many people in the West harbor hazy or wrong ideas about Islamic law. Searching for the facts behind the myths, he traces the turbulent journey of Islam’s foundation and expansion and shows how the Prophet’s teachings evolved gradually into concepts of justice.
Sadakat Kadri is a legal historian and English barrister at the Doughty Street Chambers. In addition to his latest book, he regularly contributes to various publications including The Guardian and the London Review of Books, and is the author of The Trial: A History from Socrates to O.J. Simpson (2005).
A limited number of books will be available for GW students.
The Middle East Policy Forum is presented with the generous support of ExxonMobil.
Register for the event here:
(https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1_PQdoubx4EZmIKR6iED6KwTF-rOLbsJeNGxJwEzqqHM/viewform)
13. Iran: Are We Out of Options?, Wednesday, April 17 / 5:00pm – 7:00pm McCain Institute for International Leadership
Venue: U.S. Navy Memorial Burke Theater, 701 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004
Speakers: Hon. Robert Wexler, Amb. James Dobbins, Danielle Pletka, Amb. Thomas R. Pickering
With the clock ticking and renewed negotiations underway, there is no better time than the present to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. But if diplomatic attempts fail, what then? Analysts give Iran less than 18 months before its nuclear weapons capacity is assured. Successive U.S. Administrations have insisted that the use of military force to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program remains an option. As the clock winds down, are we out of options? Would military force even succeed in stopping Iran? Or would the consequences of military force be worse than a nuclear capable Iran? Hear leading American experts debate U.S. policy on Iran: Are we out of Options? — the third debate in a series at the McCain Institute.
To register for the event click here:
(http://mccaininstitute.org/events/upcoming/mccain-debate-and-decision-series)
14. Balanced Growth and Financial Stability in Turkey’ Thursday, April 18 / 9:00am – 11:00am, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, Kenney Auditorium
Speakers: John Lipsky, Erdem Basi
John Lipsky, SAIS distinguished visiting scholar of International Economics and former first managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and Erdem Basi, governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, will discuss this topic. Note: Breakfast will be served at 8:30 a.m. SAIS will also host a live webcast available here at the time of the event.
Register for the event here:
(http://lipsky-basci.eventbrite.com/)
15. Drone Warfare in 2030: Examining the Future of Expanding Drone Use, the Precedent that May be Set, and Constitutional Implications Here and Abroad, Thursday, April 18 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, AU Washington College of Law
Venue: AU Washington College of Law, 4801 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016, Room602
Speakers: Joshua Foust, Nathan Sales, Stephen Vladeck, Benjamin Wittes
The United States’ expanding use of armed drones has sparked numerous discussions on the legality and ethical desirability of their use. Yet the discussions seem to be merely focusing on the nation’s current practice and less on other states that will surely be deploying the warfare technology in the near future. This panel will aim to shift the current debate on the use of drones by the US to the question of how increased use will impact the laws of war and our constitutional ideals. To what extent can the US serve as a positive example for the international community with regard to using drones or has a precedent already been set?
Register for the event here: (https://www.wcl.american.edu/secle/registration.cfm)
16. Towards an Islamic Enlightenment: The Gulen Movement, Thursday, April 18 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm, Rumi Forum
Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speaker: M. Hakan Yavuz
M. Hakan Yavuz offers an insightful and wide-ranging study of the Gulen Movement, one of the most imaginative developments in contemporary Islam. Founded in Turkey by the Muslim thinker Fethullah Gulen, the Gulen Movement aims to disseminate a ”moderate” interpretation of Islam through faith-based education. Its activities have fundamentally altered religious and political discourse in Turkey in recent decades, and its schools and other institutions have been established throughout Central Asia and the Balkans, as well as western Europe and North America. Consequently, its goals and modus operandi have come under increasing scrutiny around the world.
Yavuz introduces readers to the movement, its leader, its philosophies, and its practical applications. After recounting Gulen’s personal history, he analyzes Gulen’s theological outlook, the structure of the movement, its educational premise and promise, its financial structure, and its contributions (particularly to debates in the Turkish public sphere), its scientific outlook, and its role in interfaith dialogue. Towards an Islamic Enlightenment shows the many facets of the movement, arguing that it is marked by an identity paradox: despite its tremendous contribution to the introduction of a moderate, peaceful, and modern Islamic outlook-so different from the Iranian or Saudi forms of radical and political Islam-the Gulen Movement is at once liberal and communitarian, provoking both hope and fear in its works and influence.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.rumiforum.org/component/option,com_dtregister/Itemid,135/eventId,144/task,event_register/type,reg_individual/)
17. On the Ashes of Sykes-Picot: Turkish Foreign Policy and the Making of a New Middle East Order, Friday, April 19 / 10:00am – 11:30am, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, Room 417
Speaker: Soli Ozel
Soli Ozel, professor of international relations at Istanbul Kadir Has University and Miller Family Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, and Emirhan Yorulmazlar (moderator), fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, will discuss this topic.
To RSVP for the event, email: ckunkel@jhu.edu
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Painful
Johns Hopkins President Ron Daniels wrote to the university community today:
There is extremely difficult news today. A recent member of our community, Anne Smedinghoff, a 2009 graduate of the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences and a U.S. diplomat, has been killed in Afghanistan.
News reports say that Anne was killed Saturday in an attack by a suicide bomber as she and a group of other Americans were driving to donate textbooks for Afghan school students. She is reported to be the first U.S. diplomat killed since the attacks last year on U.S. consular facilities in Libya.
Anne, who was 25, joined the U.S. Foreign Service just after her Johns Hopkins graduation and, according to a statement released by her parents, “absolutely loved the work she was doing” in public diplomacy, engaged in direct outreach to the Afghan people. Her parents, Tom and Mary Beth, tell us that Anne “was always looking for opportunities to reach out and help to make a difference in the lives of those living in a country ravaged by war.”
What work could possibly be more important? What more could we possibly ask of a Johns Hopkins graduate than to risk everything to help those who have next to nothing?
Her selfless action for others was nothing new. One of our young trustees, Anne’s 2009 classmate Christopher Louie, says she was “a rock star.” He rode with her in an annual cross-country bicycle trip organized by Johns Hopkins students and alumni known as the 4K for Cancer. It raises money to support cancer patients and their families.
Anne majored in international studies and was a co-chair of the 2008 student-run Foreign Affairs Symposium, called “A Decade of Discussion.” It was an examination of changes and continuities in politics, economics, human rights, war and technology over the previous 10 years; one of the guest speakers was Kimberly Dozier, a CBS News correspondent wounded in Iraq.
Anne was also an active member of Kappa Alpha Theta and a founding member of the Johns Hopkins chapter of Rho Lambda, the national sorority leadership recognition society. She was also elected to the Order of Omega, a national fraternity and sorority leadership honor society.
Anne’s passing brings to mind war-related deaths of three other young Johns Hopkins community members in recent years. Political science graduate student Nicole Suveges, who was also a civilian Army contractor working in Iraq while doing research for her dissertation, was one of four Americans and seven others killed in an explosion in Baghdad in June 2008. In the spring of 2007, Lt. Colby Umbrell ’04 and Capt. Jonathan Grassbaugh ’03, both of the U.S. Army, were killed in action in Iraq.
Secretary of State John Kerry said today that he met Anne Smedinghoff about two weeks ago when he was in Afghanistan. He called her “vivacious, smart, capable, chosen often by the ambassador there to be the lead person because of her capacity.”
Let us all keep in our hearts the friends and family of the three military members and one Defense Department civilian who were killed with Anne, and with the four other State Department staff members who were injured.
Katherine Newman, dean of the Krieger School, joins me in extending our deepest sympathies, and those of the entire Johns Hopkins community, to Anne’s parents and family and to her many friends, especially her Johns Hopkins friends. May they all be consoled by their memories of her vibrant, valuable, well-lived life and by our appreciation of the absolutely vital work she was doing when she died. As Dean Newman said today, Anne represented everything we believe in as a university and gave her life in service of peace.
We at Johns Hopkins are honored to have had Anne, however briefly, in our midst.
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Peace picks April 2 – 5
We are late with the peace picks, but here they are for the remainder of the week:
1. Nagorno-Karabakh: Understanding Conflict, Tuesday April 2, 4:30 PM- 6:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Rome Building, Johns Hopkins SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW DC
Students from the January 2013 SAIS trip to the Caucasus region will discuss their findings and present reports based on their interviews with leaders and members of international organizations in the region about the roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Website: http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-04-02…
2. ‘New Challenges in Europe and the Middle East: A Conversation With Julianne Smith’, Tuesday April 2, 6:00 PM – 7:30 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Rome Building Johns Hopkins SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW DC
Speakers: Julianne Smith
Julianne Smith, U.S. deputy national security adviser in the Office of the Vice President, will discuss this topic.Note: The speakers comments will be off the record. A reception will follow the event immediately after in Room 812, Rome Building.
Website: http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-04-02…
3. Colombia: Land and the Agenda for Peace, Wednesday April 3, 1:00 PM -5:30 PM, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington
Speakers: Absalón Machado, Carlos Salgado, Ricardo Sabogal, Ángela Suárez Álvarez, Zoraida Castillo, Yamilé Salinas and more
Five months ago, formal peace talks were launched between the government of Colombia and the FARC-EP guerrillas. The early rounds of talks have focused on the issue of agrarian development-the first of six agreed agenda items. Highly skewed land tenure patterns, a root cause of Colombia’s longstanding internal armed conflict, have worsened over time as guerrilla insurgents, paramilitary groups, drug traffickers, agro-industrialists and the State battle for control of land, resources, and geo-strategic corridors. This violence has displaced five million Colombians, forced the evacuation of an estimated 20 million hectares of land, and produced a ‘reverse agrarian reform’ that consolidates one of the most inequitable land tenure systems in the world. What proposals are being developed to address these land inequities, to restitute the victims of Colombia’s internal armed conflict, and to build sustainable peace?
Please join us on April 3, 2013 to discuss the relationship of land and the peace agenda. The event will provide a platform for discussion among a variety of stakeholders from the U.S. and Colombian governments, victims and affected parties, academics, international organizations, and NGOs. This event is co-sponsored by the United States Institute of Peace and the U.S. Office on Colombia, with the support of U.S. Agency for International Development, U.N. Development Program, Latin America Working Group Education Fund, Mercy Corps, Inter-American Foundation, and Lutheran World Relief.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/colombia-l…
4. Muslim Nationalists and the New Turks — A Conversation with Jenny White, Wednesday April 3 6:30 PM – 8:30 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052 Lindner Family Commons
Speakers: Jenny White
Jenny White, Associate Professor and Director, Undergraduate Studies, Anthropology Department, Boston University
Jenny White is an associate professor and director of undergraduate studies in the anthropology department at Boston University. She is the former president of the Turkish Studies Association and of the American Anthropological Association Middle East Section, and sits on the board of the Institute of Turkish Studies. She is the author of Islamist Mobilization in Turkey: A Study in Vernacular Politics (2002, winner of the 2003 Douglass Prize for best book in Europeanist anthropology) and Money Makes Us Relatives: Women’s Labor in Urban Turkey (second edition, London: Routledge, 2004). She also has written three historical novels set in 19th century Istanbul, The Sultan’s Seal (2006), The Abyssinian Proof (2008), and The Winter Thief (2010).
She will be discussing her most recent book: Muslim Nationalists and the New Turks.
*A book signing and wine reception will follow. Limited copies of the book will be available for GW students.*
RSVP: tinyurl.com/afppzwu
Sponsored by the Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS
Website: http://www.elliottschool.org/events/c…
5. China’s Maritime Disputes in the East and South China Seas,Thursday April 4 9:00 AM- 3:00 PM
Venue: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Constitution Avenue and 1st Street, NE, Washington, DCG-50
The hearing will explore the security, political, and economic drivers of China’s maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas. In addition, this hearing will examine the implications of these disputes for the United States as well as prospects for resolution.
Website: http://www.uscc.gov
6. Women in a Changing Middle East: An Address by Under Secretary of State Tara Sonenshine, Thursday, April 4 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Falk Auditorium Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW D.C.
Speakers: Tamara Cofman Wittes, The Honorable Tara Sonenshine
As Arab citizens struggle to rewrite the rules defining their societies, the role and status of Arab women is a sharp focus of debate. Arab women have been at the forefront of change, but have also faced unprecedented challenges. How central is women’s empowerment to the success of Arab societies, and how important are women’s rights in the struggle for democracy? What is the U.S. doing to help Arab women (and men) to advance women and girls in their societies?
On April 4, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs Tara Sonenshine for an address on women in the Middle East. Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will provide introductory remarks and moderate a discussion with Under Secretary Sonenshine after her remarks.
Website: http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~r/Broo…
7. U.S. Foreign Policy: The Next Four Years, Thursday April 4 6:00 PM-7:15 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Lindner Family Commons,
Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, D.C.
Speakers: Maurice Mickey East, Harry Harding, Michael E. Brown, Hope M. Harrison
Maurice Mickey East, Dean, School of Public and International Affairs, GW (1985-1987); Dean, School of International Affairs, GW (1987-1988); Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, GW (1988-1994)
Harry Harding, Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, GW
(1995-2005)
Michael E. Brown, Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, GW (2005-Present)
Moderated by:
Hope M. Harrison, Associate Professor of History and International Affairs
RSVP: go.gwu.edu/ThreeDeans
Sponsored by the Elliott School of International Affairs
Website: http://www.elliottschool.org/events/c…
8. Afghan Elections: One Year to Go, Friday April 5 10:00 AM-12:00 PM, US Institute of Peace
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW D.C.
Speakers: Nader Nadery, Scott Smith, Hossai Wardak, Scott Worden
Webcast: This event will be webcast live beginning at 10:00am ET on April 5, 2013 at www.usip.org/webcast.
April 5 marks the start of the one-year countdown to Afghanistan’s presidential election. Because of constitutional term limits, this will be the first time in post-9/11 Afghanistan that Hamid Karzai is not on a presidential ballot. The fact that this unprecedented handover of presidential power occurs in the same year that international forces hand over security responsibility to Afghan national forces further increases the importance of the presidential election.
Afghans frequently highlight the inter-related nature of the upcoming security and political transitions in Afghanistan, and the importance of elections that produce a legitimate outcome for future peace and stability of Afghanistan. Furthermore, previous flawed elections have made many Afghans doubt the integrity of the democratic process.
If the April 5 election is not a marked improvement on past elections, the democratic progress that Afghanistan has made so far will be put in jeopardy. Please join a panel of experts at USIP to discuss the critically important technical and political issues that need to be addressed during the next 365 days in order for the elections to produce a credible and legitimate outcome.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/afghan-ele…
9. Women’s Roles in Terrorist Movements, Friday April 5 6:00 PM-8:00 PM, Institute of World Politics
Venue: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW DC
Speakers: Paula Holmes-Eber, Christopher C. Harmon
This event is hosted by IWP’s Student Government Association.
In the Latin, Asian, Middle Eastern, and European regions, revolutionary political movements have been accepting and deploying women in various and important roles: cadre; mid-level organizers; intelligence agents; couriers; combatants of many sorts; and suicide bombers. In unusual cases, women have also held senior leadership posts in undergrounds; a few have run their own terror organizations. What are the reasons for, and effects of, incorporating females into sub-state fighting organizations? What are the ‘lessons learned’ for intelligence analysts, military personnel, and students of the social sciences focused on culture and war?
IWP is holding a lecture-and-discussion opening to such issues on Friday, April 5, at 6:00 PM. The speakers are Dr. Paula Holmes-Eber (anthropologist) and Dr. Christopher C. Harmon (who teaches a terrorism course for IWP). Both represent Marine Corps University in Quantico, VA.
Paula Holmes-Eber, Ph.D. is Professor of Operational Culture at Marine Corps University. She is responsible for creating and teaching curricula on cultural aspects of conflict for all four schools at the university: Expeditionary Warfare School, Command and Staff College, School of Advanced Warfighting and Marine Corps War College. She also supports and advises staff at the Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning, Quantico, VA on academic matters concerning warfighting and culture, Islam, Arab society and North Africa.
Dr. Holmes-Eber completed her Master’s and Doctoral degrees in Anthropology from Northwestern University. She holds a B.A. magna cum laude from Dartmouth College, a Certificate in African Studies from Northwestern University and a Certificate in Tunisian Arabic from the Ecole Bourguiba des Langues Vivantes in Tunis, Tunisia. Her research and expertise focus on kinship and social networks in Arab and Muslim culture in North Africa.
Prior to her current position at Marine Corps University, Dr. Holmes-Eber was an Assistant Professor of Anthropology at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and a Visiting Scholar in the Middle East Center at the Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington. She is fluent in French, Arabic, German and Italian and has lived and traveled in over forty countries around the world including Tunisia, Morocco, Turkey, Israel, Mongolia, China, Taiwan, Japan, Russia and Tonga.
Christopher C. Harmon, Ph.D. has had 21 years of teaching security studies, strategy, military theory & history, and courses on terrorism at six graduate schools, including a division of National Defense University, and the Naval War College.
Currently, he teaches Terrorism and Counterterrorism at IWP and is MajGen Matthew C. Horner Chair of Military Theory at Marine Corps University.
Dr. Harmon has served as Curricula Director for the Program on Terrorism and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Garmisch Germany. He has also served as the Kim T. Adamson Chair of Insurgency & Terrorism, Marine Corps University at Quantico, VA, and as Professor of International Relations at the University’s Command and Staff College. He has done academic research fellowships with the Earhart Foundation; Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace; Claremont Institute.
Dr. Harmon holds a B.A. in History and French Language from Seattle University, where he graduated summa cum laude, and an M.A. in Government and a Ph.D. in International Relations and Government from Claremont Graduate School.
Dr. Harmon is the author of Terrorism Today, co-author of Toward a Grand Strategy Against Terrorism, and co-editor of Statecraft and Power. His article ‘Spain’s ETA Terrorist Group is Dying’ was published in the geopolitics journal ORBIS in Fall 2012.
Website: http://www.iwp.edu/events/detail/wome…
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The fireman of last resort
It is striking that the first comments on Fred Hof’s Washington Post piece today advocating U.S. support for a “nonsectarian,” opposition government in Syria are negative. The pendulum has swung hard against intervention, humanitarian or not. Americans are not interested in getting involved. They fear getting in deeper than they like and causing problems rather than solving them.
This is not surprising after a more than a decade of fruitless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention the more recent intervention in Libya. I would argue that Libya was a relatively successful intervention despite the murder of our ambassador and his colleagues in Benghazi by a relatively small group of extremists. I would also argue that Iraq, while unquestionably not a just or justifiable war given the lack of nuclear weapons (or even a serious nuclear weapons program), is better off without Saddam Hussein. The war in Afghanistan was justified, but botched and now unlikely to have a good outcome. But I am not confident I can convince even my wife, who rolls her eyes knowingly whenever I say these things. Americans are in no mood to try again in Syria to create a relative democracy where a sectarian autocracy has ruled for decades.
The values argument is clear
But the national mood should not be the only factor in determining whether we intervene in Syria. National interests and values should also weigh in the balance. So far as values are concerned, Fred is right: we should be doing what we can to help the Syrian opposition to end a brutal and illegitimate dictatorship. There really is no serious argument here, though of course Fred’s critics are correct to suggest that a democratic outcome is far from guaranteed. Extreme Islamists are playing a strong role in the Syrian revolution and are likely to remain a strong political force once it is over, no matter what we do.
National interests are less clear
Some national interests also weigh in favor of intervention. The fall of Bashar al Asad would certainly be a blow to his sponsors in Iran and his partners in Hizbollah. If our failure to intervene means the war lasts longer, the conflict will become more sectarian and put at risk state structures throughout the Levant. Apart from Syria itself, the spillover could threaten Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey, all of which are receiving large numbers of refugees and sending back into Syria fighters of various sectarian and ethnic groups. The Americans worry a lot about Al Qaeda, whose purpose is to recreate an Islamic caliphate. Continued fighting in and around Syria could make something like the caliphate re-emerge, with cataclysmic consequences.
Other national interests weigh against. Our parlous economic and budgetary situation hardly argues for intervention in yet another conflict. President Obama is concerned with keeping the Russians “on side” in support for the Northern Distribution Network, which is vital to American withdrawal from Afghanistan, and in the nuclear negotiations with Iran. He also wants to maintain a credible threat of force against Iran’s nuclear program, which would be difficult to do if the US gets enmired in the Syrian war.
Everything costs
War is not cheap. It generally runs $1 billion and up. By some reckonings, we spent more than a trillion in Iraq, but that was a really expensive eight-year enterprise with lots of military and civilian boots on the ground. No one advocates putting American troops on the ground in Syria.
Humanitarian relief and other aid is not free either, though it costs a lot less than war. We are in the vicinity of $400 million already in Syria and the bills are compounding. I won’t be surprised if the US chips in more than $1 billion by the end of this year. The bill could go considerably higher.
What are we buying? Necessities: food, water, sanitation, shelter, including blankets, cooking stoves and other standard humanitarian relief supplies. But they are going largely to government-controlled communities. While USAID claims it is reaching all vulnerable populations, reports are multiplying of areas outside government control that are getting little or nothing. It is just very difficult to get supplies to all those who need them.
Military options
Is there an alternative? We are already providing intelligence to the opposition, according to the American press. At this point, the main additional options are military. You can call it a no-fly zone if you prefer, but as Jim Dobbins has said we can either give the Syrians the arms they need to take down Bashar al Asad’s aircraft or we can nail them ourselves. The former is war by proxy. The latter is war tout court.
A billion or two in arms or air operations would not be trivial, though I’d be surprised if we got off quite that cheap. In addition, the arms could end up in the wrong hands, which will likely happen no matter who supplies them. No country wants to be the supplier of the shoulder-fired missile that brings down a commercial aircraft. Nor do I think the folks receiving weapons are likely to show much gratitude, though supplying them to relative moderates could conceivably strengthen them in the post-war transition.
I’d be more interested in the “nail the aircraft” option, especially if it included the Scud missiles Bashar has been raining on population centers. Something like this is going to be necessay if the liberated areas are ever to be safe from long-range attack. The sooner it happens, the more likely it is the liberated areas can begin governing themselves, and receiving humanitarian assistance.
We’ve got a mess on our hands in Syria. Allowing it to continue will make things worse. Intervening could also make things worse, but it is likely to accelerate the denouement and tilt the outcome against Bashar. Syria is a house on fire. We can’t be the world’s policeman, but we do need to act as its fireman of last resort.
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Can Syria be saved?
I spoke yesterday on “Can Syria Be Saved” at the Italian Institute of International Affairs (IAI). I was honored at the last minute by Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs Staffan de Mistura, who joined the event and provided some comments. Here are the notes I used, amplified with Stefano’s comments and a bit of the Q and A:
1. The situation inside Syria
Military: The regime can clear, but less and less; the revolution can clear more and more. Neither can hold securely or build without the other being able to strike. This is the significance of air power and Scuds, which prevent consolidation of rebel control.
Civilian: The government is doing all right in areas that are loyal, but not gaining and under severe economic pressure. The revolution is unable to supply many areas outside government control and therefore unable to consolidate control and support.
2. Who is doing what outside Syria
There is no sign of the Russians or Iranians abandoning Assad, despite some change in Russian rhetoric. Russian arms supplies continue. Iranian forces are active within Syria, as is Hizbollah. Arms are flowing to the opposition, but unevenly and not always what they need.
The June 2012 Geneva communique, which provides for a fully empowered transition government approved by both the regime and the opposition, is still the only agreed diplomatic route. Brahimi is quiet, which is the best way to be until he has something definite. The Americans are exasperated but unwilling as yet to send arms. The naming of a prime minister this week should bring more civilian assistance, which is already topping $400 million from the US.
3. Why Obama hesitates to intervene more decisively, why Putin backs Assad
President Obama’s hesitation has little to do with Syria. He recognizes full well that a successful revolution there will be a blow to Iran and Hizbollah, but even an unsuccessful one is bleeding them profusely. The main issues for Obama are the Northern Distribution Network, which is vital for American withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the P5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran. He does not want to risk alienating the Russians on either front.
For the Russians, the main issues are no longer the port and arms sales, if ever they were. Now the question is one of prestige and power. Putin is defining his Russia in explicitly anti-Western terms, all the more so since what he portrays as Western trickery during the Libya intervention.
For Iran, the issue is an existential one. Loss of Syria would disable the connection to Hizbollah and isolate Iran from the Arab world, with the important exception of Iraq. This would be a big loss to a country that thinks of itself increasingly as a regional hegemon. The Islamic Republic would regard the loss of Syria as a big blow.
4. Options for the US and Europe
Britain and France are considering supplying weapons. That is unlikely to buy much allegiance. The best that can be hoped for is to strengthen relatively secularist and pro-Western forces, but that is going to be diffficult given the good military and relief performance of the Islamists, including those the US regards as extremist and even linked to Al Qaeda.
The US hesitates about arms transfers because of “fast and furious,” a US government scheme to track weapons transferred to the Mexican cartels. One of the weapons was used to kill an American border patrol agent. If an American-supplied shoulder-fired missile were to bring down a commercial aircraft, the incident would have major domestic political repurcussions.
Washington is instead focusing on enabling the civilian side, in particularly the newly named Prime Minister Ghassan Hitto and whatever interim government he cobbles together. This should certainly include ample humanitarian assistance and operating expenses.
It might also include military intervention, since the Hitto government won’t be safe inside Syria if Assad continues to use his air force and Scuds. The idea gaining ground outside the US administration is to destroy as much of that capability as possible while it sits on the ground. No one in Washington wants a no-fly zone that requires daily patroling. This is also a possible response to chemical weapons, whose possible use was mentioned during the IAI event but the facts were still very unclear (as they still are today so far as I can tell).
5. Possible outcomes and their implications
The fall of Bashar will be a beginning, not an end. It is not clear that the state structure in this Levant will hold. Lebanon is clearly at risk. You’ve got Kurds in Syria and Iraq who want to unite, in addition to an ongoing if somewhat sporadic Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey. You’ve got Sunnis in Iraq fighting in Syria who might eventually turn around and fight again in Iraq. You’ve got Alawites, Druze, Christians and others who will want to protect their own communities, isolated from others in enclaves.
Even if the state structure holds, there are big questions about the future direction of Syria. Will Islamists triumph? Of which variety? Will secularists do as badly in a post-war transition as they have in Egypt? The opposition in Syria agrees that the state should remain intact, but will it be able to under pressure from a “stay-behind” insurgency like the one that Saddam Hussein mounted in Iraq?
I also ran quickly through the options for post-war Syria that I’ve already published.
Staffan reacted underlining the importance of continuing to talk with the Russians, who are convinced that the intervention in Libya has opened the door to Al Qaeda extremism in Mali and Syria. He also underlined the importance of the opposition forming an inclusive and cohesive government that enunciates a clear plan for how to deal with the previous regime, including an exit for Bashar al Assad, and how to provide guarantees to the Alawites. He underlined that we should be putting together an international peacekeeping force now. We should not be tricked into international intervention by allegations of chemical weapons use.
I’ll stop my account there, as I’ve already gone on too long. It was a stimulating discussion. Many thanks to my hosts at IAI!
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Peace Picks March 18-March 22
A very busy spring break week in DC:
1. Overcoming Obstacles to Peace, Monday March 18, 10 AM- 11:30 AM, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington DC, B203-204
Speakers: James Dobbins, Laurel Miller, William Durch, Joe Collins
How can societies build enduring peace? This is a simple question that the international community has tried to answer from a variety of different perspectives and efforts. A new book, “Overcoming Obstacles to Peace,” finds evidence that international interventions can in fact build more peaceful nations. Using thorough research supported by metrics, authors James Dobbins and Laurel Miller of the RAND Corporation demonstrate how 16 out of 20 selected conflicts over the past 25 years affirm the international community’s role and effectiveness in building stable nations.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace and the RAND Corporation in this important discussion on March 18, 2013 from 10-11:30 AM at the U.S. Institute of Peace Headquarters.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/overcoming…
2. Obama to the Middle East: Expectations and Implications, Monday March 18, 12 PM- 2 PM, Washington Institute of Near East Policy
Venue: Washington Institute of Near East Policy 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washington, D.C. 20036, Stern Library and Conference Room
Speakers: Dennis Ross, Michael Singh,and David Makovsky
President Obama embarks on the first foreign travel of his second term next week, and despite talk of a tilt toward Asia and disengagement from Middle East wars, he is headed into the heart of the region, visiting Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank. To discuss why he is visiting the Middle East, what his priorities are for the trip, and what implications it may hold for such key policy issues as the Iran nuclear challenge, the worsening Syria crisis, and the Israeli-Palestinian stalemate, TWI will host a Policy Forum luncheon with Dennis Ross, Michael Singh, and David Makovsky.
Ambassador Dennis Ross is counselor to The Washington Institute. Previously, he served on the Obama administration’s National Security Council staff as senior director for the Central Region, responsible for U.S. policy toward the Middle East and North Africa.
Michael Singh, the Institute’s managing director, served in the George W. Bush administration as senior director for Middle East affairs on the National Security Council.
David Makovsky, the Institute’s Ziegler distinguished fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process, just returned from a trip to Israel and the West Bank.
3. Economic Turmoil in Arab Countries: Can Partners Help?, Monday March 18 12 PM- 1:45 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Marwan Muasher, Uri Dadush, Ibrahim Saif, Jean-Pierre Chauffour, Nemat Shafik
More than two years after the outbreak of democratic revolutions in several Arab countries, the economic situation in the region remains precarious. Progress in restoring confidence as well as sustainable and rapid economic growth will depend overwhelmingly on internal forces and the return of political stability. However, external partners can also play a role in helping normalize and eventually improving the underlying growth fundamentals of these economies. How will the Arab economic outlook evolve? What more can the United States and Europe-the region’s largest trading partners-do to support democratic transition and economic liberalization in the countries affected? What is the respective role of trade and aid?
Website: http://carnegieendowment.org/events/?…
4. The Insurgents: David Petraeus and the Plot to Change the American Way of War, Monday March 18 12:30 PM
Venue: Cato Institute 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001Hayek Auditorium
Speakers: Fred Kaplan, Spencer Ackerman, Janine Davidson, Christopher Preble
In “The Insurgents”, Fred Kaplan tells the story of how a small group of soldier-scholars revolutionized the United States military. Their aim was to build a new Army that could fight a new kind of war in the post-Cold War age: small wars in cities and villages, against terrorists and insurgents. These would be wars not only of fighting but of nation building, often not of necessity but of choice.
Kaplan describes how these men and women maneuvered their ideas about counterinsurgency – or COIN, for short – through the bureaucracy and made it official policy. But it is also a cautionary tale about how creative doctrine can harden into dogma, how smart strategists – today’s best and brightest – can win the battles at home but not the wars abroad. By adapting the U.S. military to fight the conflicts of the modern era, they also created the tools – and made it more tempting – for political leaders to wade into wars that they would be wise to avoid.
If you cant make it to the Cato Institute, watch this event live online at www.cato.org/live and follow @CatoEvents on Twitter to get future event updates, live streams, and videos from the Cato Institute.
Featuring the author Fred Kaplan, War Stories Columnist, Slate, with comments by Spencer Ackerman, National Security Correspondent, WIRED; and Janine Davidson, George Mason University; moderated by Christopher Preble, Vice President, Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute.
Website: http://www.cato.org/events/insurgents…
5. Ambassador Marc Grossman on the Campaign in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Monday March 18 3 PM-5 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Ambassador Marc Grossman, Jessica Tuchman Mathews
In his first public event since stepping down as special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Marc Grossman will discuss efforts to reach a political settlement and the future of American diplomacy in the region. Carnegie’s Jessica T. Mathews will moderate.
Website: http://carnegieendowment.org/events/?…
6.Afghanistan in Transition: A Trip Report, Tuesday March 19, 9:30 AM, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
Speakers: Anthony Cordesman
CSIS Burke Chair Anthony Cordesman will discuss his recent trip to ISAF headquarters in Afghanistan, and the prospects for a U.S. transition. This event will also launch the Burke Chair’s latest report, a complete analysis of the Afghan transition.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
9:30 am – 10:30 am EST
B1 Conference Center
CSIS 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006
Please click here to RSVP
Follow @CSIS for live updates
Note: You must log on to your CSIS account to register. If you do not have an account with CSIS, you will need to create one. If you have any difficulties, or do not receive ‘password reset’ emails, please contact imisadmin@csis.org
Website: http://csis.org/event/afghanistan-tra…
7. A Delegation of Syrian Opposition Leaders, Tuesday March 19 10:00 AM, National Press Club
Venue: National Press Club, 529 14th St. NW, 13th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20045, Zenger Room
Speakers: Haytham Manna, Rim Turkmani, Riad Drar Al-Hamood
A delegation of Syrian opposition leaders critical of President Bashar al-Asad, and which opposes foreign intervention and Saudi Arabian-backed ‘rebels’ in the current situation,
The speakers will discuss creating sufficient political momentum for a negotiated settlement to the present Syrian Crisis, and moving toward a democratic, secular future for the country.
Contacts:
National Press Club: PETER HICKMAN
301/367-7711 (c), 301/530-1210 (t), 202/662-7540 (NPC),pjhickman@hotmail.com
Speakers (Global Policy Forum):
DAVID GRANT
david67grant@gmail.com, 202/577-3145
MEL DUNCAN
mduncan@nonviolentpeaceforce.com, 651/245-8706
Website: http://www.press.org/events/delegatio…
8. Syria’s Humanitarian Crisis, Tuesday March 19 10 AM, US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Venue: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Constitution Avenue and 1st Street, NE, Washington, DC Room 419
Speakers: The Honorable Anne C. Richard, The Honorable Nancy E. Lindborg, Mr. Tom Malinowski
Website: http://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearing…
9. US Policy in the Middle East on the Verge of Obama’s Trip, Tuesday March 19 12 PM- 1:30 PM, Center for American Progress
Venue: Center for American Progress, 1333 H Street NW, 10th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20005
Speakers: Rudy deLeon, Martin Indyk, Bruce Jentleson
On March 20 President Barack Obama will arrive in Israel in the first part of a regional visit that includes the West Bank and Jordan. The President’s trip to the region comes at a time of change in Israel and the region. On his upcoming trip, President Obama will face a full slate of challenges and opportunities, including concerns over Egypt’s continued political transition, Syrias civil war, the unresolved Arab-Israeli conflict, and the threats posed by Iran.
Please join the Center for American Progress for a keynote speech by Sandy Berger, chair at the Albright Stonebridge Group and former national security advisor to President Bill Clinton, previewing President Obamas trip to Israel and the regional challenges that face him there. Following his keynote speech, Berger will join a panel discussion with Rudy deLeon, Senior Vice President for National Security and International Policy at CAP and former deputy secretary of defense, who just returned from a CAP delegation to Israel and the West Bank; Martin Indyk, vice president and director of foreign policy at Brookings and former assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs; and Bruce Jentleson, professor of public policy and political science at Duke University and an expert on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
As part of this event, the Center for American Progress will release findings from a report based on discussions with Israeli and Palestinian officials during a recent visit to the region by members of the National Security and International Policy team.
Website: http://www.americanprogress.org/event…
10. After the Withdrawal: The Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan (Part I), Tuesday March 19 1:00 PM, US House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC 2172 House Rayburn Office Building
Speakers: Seth G. Jones, Kimberly Kagan, Peter Bergen, Daniel S. Markey
Chairman Chabot on the hearing: “U.S. national security interests in South Asia are both dire and immediate. The 2014 withdrawal plan from Afghanistan is strategically risky and threatens to plunge Afghanistan into a state in which terrorists will once again thrive. At the same time, the U.S. relationship with Pakistan has deteriorated dramatically and falters over Pakistan’s involvement with terrorist organizations and the drone war in the tribal bad lands. While Islamabad claims U.S. and Pakistani interests can be brought into alignment, we must remain skeptical of its internal divergent interests that risk undermining U.S. interests, the relationship with India, and the chance for a stable, peaceful, and independent Afghanistan. This hearing is an important opportunity to examine the President’s hasty withdrawal plan from Afghanistan and evaluate how events in Pakistan over the next year may affect U.S. national security interests throughout the entire region.”
Chairman Ros-Lehtinen on the hearing: With President Obama’s announcement last month that the U.S. will draw down our forces in Afghanistan by the end of this year without a clear withdrawal plan, it is necessary to have a hearing that will examine the security implications of this decision and analyze the capacity of the Afghani and Pakistan government to address crime and corruption while ensuring secured territories in their countries. This is imperative particularly in light of recent inflammatory accusations made by Afghani leader Hamid Karzai which have further strained U.S. – Afghanistan relations and put our troops at greater risk. We must do everything we can to prevent al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and other extremist militants from taking over and undoing the efforts and sacrifices made by the U.S. and our allies for over a decade.
Website: http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/heari…
11. Iraq, 10 years later: A conversation with Senator John McCain, General Jack Keane, and Frederick W. Kagan, Tuesday March 19 3:30 PM- 4:30 PM, American Enterprise Institute
Venue: American Enterprise Institute, 1150 17th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Frederick W. Kagan, General Jack Keane, John Mccain
Ten years ago, the United States entered Iraq and in a few short weeks ended Saddam Hussein’s reign of tyranny. What followed — wild swings between victory and defeat, liberation and occupation — and ended with President Barack Obama’s decision to withdraw all US forces from Iraq in 2011, is likely to be a source of contention for years to come.
As we approach the anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq War, many questions remain: Is Iraq a success? What role will Iran and al Qaeda play in the vacuum left by the withdrawal of American forces? Were the war and the liberation of 25 million Iraqis worth the high price Americans paid in blood and treasure? Please join us as we reflect on a conflict that helped shape the beginning of the 21st century in American foreign policy. Senator John McCain will be joined by a panel featuring General Jack Keane (ret.) and AEI’s Frederick W. Kagan.
If you are unable to attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.
Website: http://www.aei.org/events/2013/03/19/…
12. Crisis in Syria: The US Response, Wednesday March 20 9:45 AM, US House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC2172 House Rayburn Office Building
Speakers: Robert S. Ford, Anne C. Richard, Nancy E. Lindborg
Chairman Royce on the hearing: “Unfortunately, we are watching conditions in Syria continue to deteriorate precipitously. The Assad regime has killed tens of thousands of Syrians. Millions more have been displaced or have fled to neighboring countries increasingly strained by their influx. This is a regional crisis. It’s time for the Obama Administration, which has struggled on Syria, to present and defend its policy on all fronts, including its humanitarian efforts. The Committee will focus on how the U.S. can best protect its vital national interests and effectively promote a stable and peaceful Syria.”
Website: http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/heari…
13.Changing Challenges for the Gulf States- A Panel Discussion, Wednesday March 20 12:00 Pm- 2: 00 Pm, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052Lindner Family Commons
Speakers: Christopher Davidson, Kristin Smith Diwan, Gwenn Okruhlik, Marc Lynch
Christopher Davidson, Reader in Middle East Politics, School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University
Kristin Smith Diwan, Assistant Professor, Comparative and Regional Studies, School of International Service, American University
Gwenn Okruhlik, President, Association for Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Studies
Moderated by:
Marc Lynch, George Washington University
Three leading political scientists will discuss the current challenges facing the Gulf States.
*A light lunch will be served.*
RSVP: tinyurl.com/a6tvn2m
Sponsored by the Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Website: http://www.elliottschool.org/events/c…
14. Hezbollah’s Strategic Shift: A Global Terrorist Threat, Wednesday March 20 1:30 Pm, US House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC2172 House Rayburn Office Building
Speakers: Will Fulton, Matthew Levitt, Roger Noriega
Chairman Poe on the hearing: “Next week, the TNT Subcommittee will bring together experts to discuss the evolution of Hezbollah. Hezbollah has historically been a terrorist organization whose activity has been isolated in the Middle East. Hezbollah is the puppet of Iran worldwide. Under the guidance of the Iranian regime, this jihadist group has expanded its reach and shifted its strategy to operate in virtually every corner of the world including Latin America and Europe. I look forward to hearing testimony about the relationship between Hezbollah and the Iranian regime, how this threat has grown in recent years, and what implications this dangerous alliance has for U.S. national security.”
Website: http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/heari…
16. The Muslim Brotherhood and the West, Wednesday, March 20 / 2:00pm – 4:00pm, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Venue: Reserve Officers Association, 1 Constitution Ave NE Washington, DC
Speakers: Lorenzo Vidino, Abdullah Bijad Alotibi, Joseph Braude, Sam Helfont
Few observers foresaw the Arab Spring, but it should not have surprised anyone that the Islamist movements the most organized movements in the Arab world became the main beneficiaries of the turmoil that ensued. Islamism, in its gradualist and pragmatic approach embodied by the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots worldwide, seems ready to reap the rewards of its three decades-old decision to abandon violence and focus on grassroots activities. This monumental change has created many concerns among liberals, religious minorities and, more generally, all non-Islamists in the countries where Islamists have won. In addition, Arab states ruled by non-Islamist regimes have expressed concern. The former worry that Islamist ideology even in its more contemporary, pragmatic form remains deeply divisive and anti-democratic, often at odds with their values and interests. The latter believe that on foreign policy issues, most of the positions of various Brotherhood-inspired parties are on a collision course with the policies of established regimes in the region.
In association with Al Mesbar Studies and Research Centre (based in the United Arab Emirates), the Foreign Policy Research Institute has just published as an E-Book The West and the Muslim Brotherhood After the Arab Spring, edited by Lorenzo Vidino. The book provides an overview of each of eight countries’ policies towards Islamism, including the United States, Britain, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, and Israel. In this program, Vidino highlights the key lessons of the volume, and comment is offered by Abdullah Bijad Alotibi and Joseph Braude.
Website: http://www.fpri.org/events/2013/03/mu…
16. The Petro-politics of Azerbaijan, Wednesday, March 20 / 2:00pm – 3:00pm, Institute of World Politics
Venue: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW Washington, DC
Speakers: Vilen Khlgatyan
This lecture is part of a series on the Intermarium, organized by the Kosciuszko Chair of Polish Studies at IWP.
Mr. Khlgatyan will discuss the role Azerbaijan’s oil and gas reserves have played in attracting the Oil Majors to the region, and how this in turn has helped and hindered Azerbaijan’s domestic and foreign politics. Moreover, with Azerbaijani oil reserves having hit their peak in 2010-2011, what does the future hold?
Vilen Khlgatyan is Vice-Chairman of Political Developments Research Center (PDRC), a virtual think tank based in Yerevan, Armenia.
He attended Webster University, where he double majored in International Relations and International Business, and graduated in Spring 2010. He spent a semester studying in Vienna, Austria, where he also attended OPEC and OSCE workshops.
His studies at IWP have focused on national security and the geopolitics of energy. He is writing his honors thesis on the ‘Geopolitics of Energy in the South Caucasus.’
Mr. Khlgatyan was a campaign staffer for Congressman Russ Carnahan of Missouri’s 3rd District, who sat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Important note: Attendance at all IWP events requires an RSVP in advance. In addition, prospective attendees must receive an e-mail confirmation from IWP indicating that seating will be available for them at the event. A government-issued ID that matches your name on the confirmed attendee list must be presented at the door for admission to any event. The use of photographic and/or recording equipment is prohibited except by advanced permission from IWP, the event organizer, and the speaker(s). IWP is a private organization; as such, all attendees are guests of the Institute.
Website: http://www.iwp.edu/events/detail/the-…
17. The Turkey, Russia, Iran Nexus: Driving Forces and Strategies, Wednesday, March 20 / 2:00pm – 3:30pm, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
Speakers: Bulent Aliriza, Jon B. Alterman, Andrew C. Kuchins, Stephen J. Flanagan
CSIS scholars will present the key findings of their 18 month project that has examined the forces and interests driving relations among Turkey, Russia, and Iran and the strategies that these governments are pursuing to manage differences and sustain economic and energy cooperation. They will also discuss how complex and often contradictory interactions among these three countries are shaping regional dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean, Caucasus, and Central Asia, as they have for centuries. The nexus of the three pairs of relations are also influencing each country’s dealings with the other two as well as with the United States, and are being whipsawed by recent events. Starkly differing policies toward the Syrian civil war and the Arab Spring have strained Ankara’s relations with Moscow and Tehran. Understanding these dynamics is essential to avoiding a wider war in the Middle East, renewed conflict in the Caucasus, and instability in Central Asia following the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan.
Please Click Here to RSVP online or email us at KissingerChair@csis.org.
(Note: You must log on to your CSIS account to register online. If you do not have an account with CSIS, you will need to create one. If you have any difficulties, or do not receive ‘password reset’ emails, please contactimisadmin@csis.org).
Website: http://csis.org/event/turkey-russia-i…
18. The Struggle for Democracy in Tunisia, Wednesday, March 20 / 2:30pm – 5:00pm, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: John Hopkins SAIS- Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036Kenney Auditorium
Webcast: This event will be webcast live beginning at 2:30pm ET on March 20, 2013 at www.usip.org/webcast.
Tunisia’s 2010-11 ‘Jasmine Revolution’ ignited a flame of political rebellion that quickly spread to Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain, and Syria. But as the ‘Arab Spring’ enters its third season, Tunisia’s struggle for democracy is beset by escalating ideological and even violent conflicts. What are the key challenges facing Tunisia? How can U.S. officials and nongovernmental organizations help Tunisians address mounting domestic and regional crises?
To discuss these and other questions, the United States Institute of Peace, Georgetown University, Johns Hopkins SAIS, and Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) are pleased to invite you to a public round-table featuring a delegation of prominent Tunisian political scientists on Wednesday, March 20, 2013 from 2:30pm to 5:00pm at SAIS. Members of the delegation will offer their perspectives on the situation and then participate in a frank question-and-answer session. We hope that you will be able to join us for this very special event.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/the-strugg…
19. Turkey’s Kurdish Question: A New Hope?, Wednesday, March 20 / 3:00pm – 4:30pm, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036Saul/Zilkha Rooms
Speakers: Kemal Kirisci, Aliza Marcus, mer Taspinar, Gnl Tol
Turkey’s approach to dealing with its Kurdish minority-the Kurdish question-at home and in the region is once again at a critical juncture. From the prospects for a new constitution to Ankara’s Syria dilemma, virtually all the pressing issues facing Turkey have a Kurdish dimension. After the failure of the ‘Oslo process,’ Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has initiated another round of negotiations, this time called the ‘Imrali process’ and directly involving the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan. The process has been challenging, but extremely cautious expectations and hopes are growing that the rejuvenated process will not succumb to the fate of the previous efforts at solving the Kurdish problem in Turkey.
Given past failures at dialogue and at finding a mutually-acceptable, peaceful, and democratic solution to the problem, how might the ‘Imrali process’ prove different? What do the Kurds of Turkey want? Is the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) ready to meet Kurdish demands? What is Erdogan’s objective? What are the regional implications? At a time when Syria is in turmoil and Iraqi is facing increasing domestic instability, is a major breakthrough possible?
On March 20, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings (CUSE) will host a discussion to explore these and other important questions related to Turkey’s Kurdish minority. Featured speakers include Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Ömer Taspinar, author and journalist Aliza Marcus, and Gönül Tol of the Middle East Institute. Brookings TUSIAD Senior Fellow Kemal Kirisci will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion. The event is part of the TUSIAD U.S.-Turkey Forum at Brookings. After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Participants can join the conversation on Twitter during the event using #FPKurds.
Website: http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~r/Broo…
20. What Should Obama do on North Korea?, Thursday, March 21 / 9:00am, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
Speakers: Victor D. Cha, Walter L. Sharp
Please join us for a Korea Chair Platform event with Victor Cha, Walter L. Sharp, and Joseph R. DeTrani. In the wake of the December 2012 missile launch and the February 2013 nuclear test, our distinguished panelists will share their views on the road ahead and what President Obama should do on North Korea. We hope you can join us!
To RSVP for this event, please email KoreaChair@csis.org.
The Korea Chair Platform is made possible by the generous support of Samsung Electronics America.
Website: http://csis.org/event/what-should-oba…
21. The Rise and Fall of Democracies and Dictatorships: New Perspectives on Democratic Governance, Friday, March 22 / 9:00am – 11:00am, Woodrow Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: Scott Mainwaring, Frances Hagopian, Steven Levitsky
Website: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the…
22. Mapping Egyptian Politics: Where Is Egypt Heading and What Does That Mean for the United States?, Friday, March 22 / 10:30am – 12:00pm, RAND Corporation
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC 2168 Rayburn House Office Building
Speakers: Jeff Martini, Michele Dunne, Samer Shehata, Anne Gearan
Despite widespread unrest, continued wrangling over the election law, and threats of an opposition boycott, Egypt is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in the coming months. Egypt’s transition has already been punctuated by a series of Islamist victories at the polls. In this session, three Egypt watchers will take a closer look at what past electoral performance and the current political context say about the Islamists’ strength in Egypt and what it means for the United States.
Website: http://www.rand.org/events/2013/03/22..
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