Tag: Asia
How do we get out of here?
Ikonomou Pantelis, former IAEA nuclear inspector, writes:
President Trump and the international community
The geopolitical pendulum swings decisively through the power of arrogance and ignorance of a potential global hegemon. The US President Donald Trump. Continuous rotation of positions. Theatrical complacency and quest for public impression. Complete lack of strategic goals. Absence of serious planning.
His top characteristic is egotistic despotism. International institutions, fundamental values and universal rules of law are disregarded. Historical allies and friends of America are insulted. Pariah states and authoritarian leaders are admired. Signs of personal insecurity? Perhaps. However, they all result in worldwide untrustworthiness.
The threats to humanity
Most dangerously, the enormous threats to humanity are belittled or ridiculed: nuclear weapons, climate change, epidemics, poverty. Science, the locomotive of human civilization, is mocked. The interest of power succeeds. Might makes right. Extortionate deals are the goal.
Violence is growing and spreading worldwide. Wars and unspeakable human misery are increasing. Geopolitical disorder is on the march. Reasonable questions are raised: Is the sun setting on the West? Will humanity decline? Do we follow an irreversible course towards anarchy? Are these all samples of global entropy? Where is our planet headed?
A black hole lurks. Global threats are now ultimate. We need to comprehend it. If we ignore them, history will cease to repeat itself, forever. It is high time for the international community to act. Within the framework of the UN. Beyond colorful photos, bombastic declarations and inexpensive wishful speeches. There is need for bold decisions and above all, for binding actions.
What can be done?
There are serious proposals for Amending the UN Charter in order to achieve critical changes in the 15-member UN Security Council (UNSC), including: (a) Adding two representatives from Africa and two from Asia, (b) abolition of the right for veto of its permanent five (P5) nuclear members, (c) decisions of the majority of the UNSC to be binding and, (d) anyone who does not comply with the UN Charter should lose the right to vote.
Obviously, there will be serious obstacles. Such as, disagreements in agreeing on which countries will occupy Asian and African seats, Latin American demands, German ambitions, and European over-representation. The gravest hindrance would be the unwillingness of the P5 to give up their veto power. For any amendment of the UN Charter all P5 ultimate approval is required.
The moral and pragmatic power of the vast majority of the world population represented in the UN General Assembly is the most effective instrument for change. Only people can force the P5 leaders to undertake the way out of the catastrophic dead locks. Today’s perilous world crises do not allow for prolonging superpowers’ games through the UNSC. The future of the international community is grave. World leaders’ responsibility is paramount, so is their challenge to preserve and secure world peace.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Four more years is four too many
It’s a sad day for America. Not only has Donald Trump re-entered the White House. His wealthy buddies are no longer hiding their allegiances. Elon Musk is not only supporting Alternative für Deutschland. He is copying a salute most Germans still remember with shame.
Off to the expected scams
Trump’s first moves are against immigrants and in favor of the fossil fuel industry. Ignoring the 14th amendment, he is trying to deprive people born in the US of citizenship it provides. He has also blocked asylum seekers. Raids that will round up legal as well as illegal immigrants are imminent. Trump wants to get rid of Biden’s efforts to slow global warming and accelerate oil, gas, and coal production. He is withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, which allows Washington to define its own measures to prevent climate change. He has also ordered withdrawal from the World Health Organization.
Trump is also promising Tik Tok relief from a law that provides for no possibility of relief from the president. He is pardoning 1500 criminals, most of whom attacked the Capitol violently on January 6, 2021. The Trump family has launched a crypto “memecoin” that has already put billions in his pockets. It will implode, like other such frauds, plundering late-comer investors. Trump’s threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 1 will cause a major trade war. That will jack up inflation and impoverish many people in the Western Hemisphere.
Don’t lose sight of the baseline
Biden is leaving office with an extraordinary record of achievement. Federal and state prosecutors, including in deep red states, have found no reason to prosecute any Biden Administration political appointees. None have resigned in scandal. Biden pardoned his family not because they had done something wrong but because he rightfully feared Trumped-up charges against them. Trump’s nominee for FBI Director has promised such revenge. Note he did not pardon himself.
The economic stats at the end of 2024 are these:
- Unemployment 4.1% (12/24)
- GDP growth 3.0% (IV 24)
- Inflation 2.9% (2024)
- Budget deficit $2T (2024)
- Stock market (DJ) 43k, more or less
What are the odds that Trump will beat all these benchmarks? Close to zero. Three of them? Not much higher. We’ll have to wait and see.
Here are just a few other Biden claims:
—Strongest economy in the world —Nearly 16 million new jobs, a record —Wages up —Inflation coming down —Racial wealth gap lowest in 20 years —Historic infrastructure investments —Lower prescription drug costs —Record health insurance coverage —Most significant climate law ever —First major gun safety law in 30 years —First Black woman on Supreme Court —Help for 1 million veterans exposed to toxins —Violent crime rate at 50-year low —Border crossings lower than when Trump left office
Foreign policy
I fault Biden for his sloppy handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal and his failure to rein in Israel in Gaza. That undermined his claim that America stands up for democracy. He responded reasonably well and quickly to the fall of Assad in Syria. With Iran, Biden failed to revive the nuclear agreement. That has left a big challenge for Trump. But if Biden had succeeded, Trump would have withdrawn again.
Biden was great reunifying and rallying NATO to support for Ukraine. Fearful of provoking war between the US and Russia, however, Biden was too hesitant in providing long-range weapons. I hope Trump will give Kyiv all it needs to win. In the Balkans, Biden’s knowledgeable minions were miserably unsuccessful.
Biden was good on China, Taiwan, India, and Asia in general. But he couldn’t refocus more attention there due to events in the Middle East. We’ll have to see if Trump does better.
Next four years
Half the country did not think this was enough. They disliked Kamala Harris, an articulate, experienced, competent, Black and Indian woman. She had been a successful prosecutor and a senator. They thought they would do better with a convicted felon, womanizer, racist, and flim-flam man. I’ll be interested to hear what they have to say after four more years of his bombast.
PS: Let me be clear: four more yours is four too many. But the last thing I would want is to see the Vice President in the Oval Office. He is arguably worse.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
The Gaza war will likely continue
That’s precisely what Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is doing. The Israel Defense Forces have seized the Rafah Crossing into Gaza. The attack is proceeding. Netanyahu hopes thereby to accomplish the complete victory over Hamas that has so far eluded him. Only that would have any chance of keeping him in power.
Netanyahu claims Hamas or Qatar made last-minute changes in the ceasefire agreement. Whatever they may be (or not be), it is hard to imagine that they justify an attack on a place where more than a million civilians are crammed together. This attack will be remembered for creating an even greater humanitarian catastrophe than the more than six months of war on Gaza have generated so far.
A test for Biden
President Biden has firmly opposed the attack on Rafah without a clear plan for protecting civilians. That is nowhere in sight. The Israelis are encouraging civilians to evacuate some areas, as they have previously, but the attacks are not limited to those. And there are few places left for civilians to go.
The question now is how Biden, who has supported Israel’s objective of eliminating Hamas’ military capabilities, will react. Axios has reported that the US has put a hold on some shipments of ammunition for Israel. But it is unclear how vital these are and how long the hold will last.
More important than a shipment or two of ammunition is the overall posture of the US towards Israel. In recent years, it has become “Israel right or wrong.” Netanyahu has taken advantage of that attitude not only in Gaza but also on the West Bank, where he has unleashed racist settlers to attack Palestinians. Arabs chant “from the river to the sea.” Netanyahu and his allies are doing it. They are also making Gaza uninhabitable.
Biden cannot continue to pose as a champion of democracy worldwide if he allows Israel to continue its disproportionate killing of civilians in Gaza. But stopping Netanyahu at this point will require a dramatic reversal of US policy.
The problem is domestic politics
That will be difficult. Biden faces some domestic pressure to rein in Israel. Many liberal Jews, as well as Arab and Muslim Americans, oppose continuation of the war. The campus protesters represent only the most visible part of that electorate. But the far more numerous evangelical Christians still favor “Israel right or wrong.” Most of them will vote Republican anyway, despite Donald Trump’s obvious disdain for religion and morality. But the center of gravity of American politics still favors Israel. Shifting toward more conditionality will not help Biden in November.
The opposite is true in much of the rest of the world. While much of Europe is still backing Israel, many in Africa and Asia view Israel as a colonial power and therefore support the Palestinians. America could benefit internationally from shifting policy away from “right or wrong,” as Eisenhower did when he got Israel, Britain, and France to back off the Suez Canal in 1956. But foreigners don’t get to vote in US elections.
Biden isn’t likely to pass the test
I would not bet on Biden forcing Israel to back down in Rafah. He is more likely to try to get Netanyahu to make the attack shorter and less violent. But Netanyahu is looking for a real victory–the modern equivalent of Yahya Sinwar’s head on a pole–and won’t settle for less. The Gaza war isn’t over and may continue for a long time still.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, August 22
– NYT sees trends in recent elections in Ecuador and Guatemala.
– FT’s Gideon Rachman sees East Asia hitting a demographic wall.
– Both NYT and WaPo see trend of state legislation against China
– WaPo sees cluster bombs helping Ukraine
– OMB has released new Circular A11, tells agencies how to prepare their budgets [be careful, it’s 1,070 pages]
– State has warned Americans to leave Belarus immediately.
– Dan Drezner weighs the 14th amendment case for blocking Trump, says it would be better for him to lose at the ballot box.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, March 26
– NYT says Asia is gearing for war.
– WaPo sees “five families” in the House GOP.
-Reuters sees US-China fight over undersea cables.
– NYT analyzes Biden-Netanyahu disagreements.
-Poli sci study funds independent redistricting commissions lead to 2.25 times as many competitive districts. Hooray!
– Conservative prof wants to change GOP primary system. Intriguing ideas.
– Marine reservist sees legal opportunity to expand “1202 authorities.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, November 21
– US wants expanded military presence in Philippines
– Germans consider subsidies to avoid trade war with US
– Iran helps Russia build drones, WaPo says.
– Russia has growing debt problem
– And the tech sanctions are hurting, too, says FP
– House GOP targets the Pentagon
– US pressures Netanyahu over defense appointment
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
