Tag: Asia
Where do you find free cheese?
In what may be the biggest auction since Moscow and Washington vied for influence in various third world countries during the Cold War, Ukraine (pop: 45 million) is attracting some hefty bids. Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday upped the ante: he plunked down $15 billion to buy potentially worthless Ukrainian government bonds and cut the price of Russian natural gas (by what I figure is one third). At the same time, he said he wasn’t insisting on Ukraine joining his Eurasian customs union. He figures the European Union won’t be willing to match that.
That does not mean “game over,” because the demonstrators are still in Maidan calling for President Yanukovich to sign an association agreement with the EU, one that Catherine Ashton is claiming will not hurt Russia’s interests in Ukraine. It would open Ukrainian markets and force its producers to adjust, which is why Yanukovich is asking for another 20 billion euros (per year!) from Brussels. I suppose he may still get some substantial fraction of that, provided he didn’t make the mistake of promising Putin he would not sign with the EU. The parliamentary opposition is threatening to block the Russian deal, prompting the choicist comment I’ve heard on the situation: Read more
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The world according to CFR
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) survey of prevention priorities for 2014 is out today. Crowdsourced, it is pretty much the definition of elite conventional wisdom. Pundits of all stripes contribute.
The top tier includes contingencies with high impact and moderate likelihood (intensification of the Syrian civil war, a cyberattack on critical US infrastructure, attacks on the Iranian nuclear program or evidence of nuclear weapons intent, a mass casualty terrorist attack on the US or an ally, or a severe North Korean crisis) as well as those with moderate impact and high likelihood (in a word “instability” in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq or Jordan). None merited the designation high impact and high likelihood, though many of us might have suggested Syria, Iraq and Pakistan for that category. Read more
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Peace picks, December 16-20
DC is beginning to slow down as the holiday season is fast approaching, but there are still some great events this week. We won’t likely publish another edition until January 5, as the year-end doldrums will likely last until then:
1. The Middle Kingdom Looks East, West, North, and South: China’s Strategies on its Periphery
Monday, December 16 | 9:00am – 10:30am
Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Fifth Floor
China’s recent declaration of an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea and its territorial claims over 80% of the South China Sea are focusing renewed American attention on Chinese strategy. To understand China’s policies, deployments, and ambitions in the Western Pacific, we must analyze China’s attitudes toward all of its 14 border States and Pacific neighbors, and toward its near and more distant seas.
The Kissinger Institute’s 2013 series of public programs will conclude with a talk by renowned author Edward Luttwak, who will lead a discussion of China’s strategy throughout its periphery, with an emphasis on the Diaoyu/Senkakus and other regional disputes.
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We are Kim’s kin too
I can’t even pretend to know something about North Korea, but it seems to me The Daily Beast has it right: rather than being a sign of strength, Kim Jong Un’s purge and execution of his uncle reflects weakness and foreshadows instability. The military is coming out on top, regime cadres will be running scared and Pyongyang will become more isolated. Uncle Jang Song Thaek was a key liaison with the Chinese, which had been encouraging economic opening and discouraging nuclear adventurism.
This is a difficult situation for the rest of the world. North Korea is a threat to regional stability either way: Kim may gain full command and brandish nuclear weapons against his neighbors (and Washington, though no one thinks he has the capability to target the continental United States), hoping to be paid off in fuel and food. The US has done that several times, but President Obama has sworn off the practice. Or North Korea might collapse, sending refugees into China and the South and leaving behind nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction in the hands of who knows who. Read more
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Peace picks, December 2-6
After a week of Thanksgiving festivities, here are this week’s top events:
1. CHP’s Vision for Turkey: An Address by Chairman Kılıçdaroğlu
Monday, December 2 | 11:30am – 1:00pm
Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
On December 2, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, chairman of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), for an address on Turkey, its foreign policy and its relations with the United States. In his remarks, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu will offer CHP’s vision for the future of Turkey with a particular focus on Turkish democracy and economics. He will also reflect on Turkey’s role in its neighborhood and offer thoughts on its transatlantic relations.
Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu has served as the chair of the Republican People’s Party since May 2010. He was first elected in 2002 as a member of the Turkish Parliament for the Istanbul province. He was reelected as an MP in 2007 and served as CHP’s Group Vice President until declaring his candidacy for the leadership of the party. Prior to his political career, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu served in numerous high-ranking positions in the Turkish Ministry of Finance and the Social Security Organization.
Senior Fellow Ted Piccone, acting vice president and director of Foreign Policy at Brookings, will introduce Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu. At the conclusion of his remarks, Brookings TUSIAD Senior Fellow Kemal Kirişci will moderate the discussion. After the program, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu will take audience questions.
| Introduction |
| Ted Piccone Acting Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy The Brookings Institution |
| Moderator |
| Kemal Kirişci TUSIAD Senior Fellow and Director, Turkey Project The Brookings Institution |
| Featured Speaker |
| Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Chairman Republican People’s Party |
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Peace picks, November 4-8
Apologies for the late posting (DPS):
The upcoming week’s top events:
1. Responding to the Rebalance: ASEAN between China and the US
Monday, November 4 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm
East-West Center, Sixth Floor Conference Room, 1819 L Street NW
An Asia-Pacific Security Seminar featuring:
Mr. Julio Amador III
2013 Asia Studies Visiting Fellow, East-West Center in Washington
Foreign Affairs Research Specialist, Philippines’ Foreign Service Institute
Dr. Charmaine Misalucha (Discussant)
Assistant Professor, De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines
The rebalancing of the United States to Asia in an effort to stem China’s surge in regional leadership has placed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in a difficult position. While ASEAN recognizes China as one of its most important Dialogue Partners, the regional association’s members have always recognized that the US plays a special role in the Asia Pacific as the guarantor of security. Meanwhile, China and the US are set on a rivalry that, while not officially acknowledged, is apparent to observers in Southeast Asia. Within this context, how is ASEAN as a regional organization dealing with Chinese-American rivalry?
Mr. Julio Amador III will describe regional perspectives about the direction of ASEAN in the context of the US Rebalance. He will discuss the tensions in the South China Sea as the backdrop for the rivalry between China and the US, and ASEAN’s subsequent attempts at autonomy in settling the issue. He will also assess ASEAN’s internal dynamics and describe how member-states attempt to form a regional consensus while maintaining their national strategic interests. While China and the US contend for primacy in the region, ASEAN still has a role to play, but only if it is willing to move beyond the narrow strategic limits set by its member states.
This program will be off-the-record; thank you for your cooperation.
A light luncheon will be served.
Julio Amador III is an Asia Studies Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington and a Fulbright Scholar at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University. He is on leave as a Foreign Affairs Research Specialist at the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies (CIRSS) of the Philippines’ Foreign Service Institute. He provides policy analysis and strategic advice on ASEAN issues, Southeast Asia security and international relations, and foreign policy to the Department of Foreign Affairs. Mr. Amador has held numerous fellowships in the United States, Europe, and Australia.
Dr. Charmaine Misalucha is currently a US-ASEAN Fulbright Fellow in the School of International Service of American University. She is also an Assistant Professor at De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines, specializing international relations, security studies, and the arms trade. She received her PhD in International Relations from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies of the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
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