Tag: Balkans
Calms before the Balkan storms
In both Bosnia and Serbia, storms are brewing at the presidential level. The outcomes are uncertain. But neither Serbian President Vucic nor Republika Srpska (RS) President Dodik can be sure of holding on to their rickety presidencies.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the issue is a judicial one. A Sarajevo court has convicted the President of the Serb-controlled 49% of the country of defying orders of the international community High Representative. He is responsible for implementation of the Dayton accords that ended the Bosnia war in 1995. Dodik’s lawyers are appealing, but a decision is expected by the end of summer. He has three options, assuming failure of the appeal:
- Stay in the country and defy the court.
- Leave the country for haven in Dodik-friendly Serbia, Hungary, or Russia.
- Surrender to the authorities.
If he stays, the Sarajevo authorities will eventually attempt an arrest, with consequent physical risks to Dodik and others. If he leaves, his brand of ethnic nationalist defiance will fall into discredit, at least for a while. The main opposition in RS is not defending him. If Dodik surrenders to the authorities, he will become a martyr to his cause. His jail time is only a year, but he would be barred from public office for six years.
I’d bet on his leaving. Dodik is no hero or martyr. Serbia won’t want him, as that would further complicate its relations with the US and the EU. Hungary might take him, as it did a former North Macedonian Prime Minister. But I imagine him most appropriately joining Syrian President Assad in some presumed Moscow suburb. Dodik is not a killer like Assad, but he is an autocrat and merits an autocrat’s fate.
Serbia
In Belgrade, the issue is a political one, albeit rooted in the failure of the state’s prosecutors to do their jobs properly. Massive demonstrations protesting against an increasingly autocratic President Vucic. The demonstrators hold him responsible not just for an incident that killed 16 people, but also for a corrupt system of governance that ignores the rule of law. For full documentation, see this report of an ad hoc, nongovernmental group.
The demonstrations have weakened Vucic, but there is no alternative in sight. He has held on for months, sacrificing a prime minister but still keeping his own position. In power as Deputy Prime Minister, Prime Minister, and President since 2012, Vucic has survived several previous rounds of popular protest, relying in part on Russian help against “color revolution.” He sacrifices a minister or two and eventually calls early elections, which he uses patronage and ballot stuffing to win.
This time could be different. The EU and US appear less inclined now than previously to regard Vucic as better than any conceivable alternative. The Trump Administration, which I had assumed would support him if only to protect the Trump family building plans in Belgrade, has said little. The EU is also reluctant to back him. Vucic’s support for Dodik in Bosnia may be one reason, and his solicitude towards Russia another. In both Brussels and Washington, officials seem to have awakened to what Balkan experts have been saying for some time: Vucic is irremediable.
What’s next?
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the judicial decision on Dodik’s appeal will be the next predictable action-forcing event. In Serbia, the students have started to call for early elections, which otherwise wouldn’t be due until 2027. The key questions there will be whether the political opposition can united against Vucic and mobilize even broader support than the protests. And whether the election will be truly free and fair.
Democracy and rule of law in both Bosnia and Serbia are in the balance. The US and EU should be preparing to do their utmost to ensure they gain.
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Popular protests in Serbia target Vucic
Last month 300,000 people turned out in Belgrade in support of a student-led campaign against government inefficiency and lack of accountability. Last Saturday the government mustered 55,000 in response. President Vucic hopes to stem a tide that has already swept away the Prime Minister. Vucic will not have forgotten the protests that brought down his mentor, Slobodan Milosevic, in 2000.
The student edict
The current wave of mass demonstrations against the government started in November after a train station canopy collapsed Nis, killing 16 people. Prior anti-violence and pro-environment demonstrations had plagued the government in 2023.
The students issued an “edict” last month:
We, the students and free citizens of Serbia, gathered in the city of Niš, in a city that has witnessed new ideas and changes, in a city that has been a crossroads of history for centuries, and where freedom has always found its way, bring this edict by which we proclaim the values we are fighting for, as a pledge of the future and the state in which we want to live.
ABOUT FREEDOM
Serbia is a country of free people. Freedom is not a mercy, but a basic right inseparable from the dignity of every citizen. Freedom is the foundation of our democratic society, our laws, our speech and our thoughts.
ABOUT THE STATE
The state is the common good of all its citizens. The institutions of Serbia must serve the people and be a foundation of trust, not an instrument of the power of individuals. We stand for a state where the law represents the supreme authority and where political office means service to citizens, not privilege.
ABOUT JUSTICE
Justice is the basis of a stable society. An independent judiciary, free media and institutions must act according to the law and not under political pressure. Equality of rights must be a reality for every citizen of Serbia.
ABOUT YOUTH
Young people have shown that they are not only heirs of Serbia, but defenders of its constitution. Students, as bearers of this struggle, preserve the values on which our society should rest. The youth of Serbia is looking for a system based on effort and knowledge.
ABOUT DIGNITY
We stand for a society in which the dignity of every individual is respected. Dignity implies that no person should be put in a position of humiliation because of their views and opinions. A Serbia where experts are not underestimated and where knowledge is valued more than obedience, where young people see hope in their country.
ABOUT KNOWLEDGE
Knowledge is the foundation of the progress of any society. We are looking for a Serbia that invests in science, research, education and culture as the priorities of its development. Universities must be independent centers of excellence, not training grounds for degree-buying and political influence.
ABOUT SOLIDARITY
The roads of our cities, from Niš to Novi Sad, from Belgrade to Kragujevac, testify to the strength of national unity. This solidarity, hitherto unknown to systems based on discord, becomes our vow and our strength, which we will defend and nurture. By turning individual voices into a force for change, we proved that Serbia is not a collection of divided interests, but a community of citizens who share a vision of the future.
ABOUT THE FUTURE
Let this edict be our obligation, our promise to each other – that we will build a state that will belong to everyone, where every child will be able to dream big dreams. A country where justice and freedom will be stronger than any individual, where the government will not serve the people, but it will serve the people.
This is more vision than political roadmap. What is the theory of change? What needs to happen to satisfy the demands of the demonstrators?
No guarantee of change
Some of the opposition politicians are hoping the students will reinterpret their “no politics” pledge. The opposition wants a “technical” government to prepare the country for the next parliamentary elections. They are due in 2027 but could be held earlier. Presidential elections are also scheduled for 2027, when President Vucic’s second (and constitutionally last) term will expire. It is hard to picture Vucic sticking around for a serious technical government that would aim to eliminate election fraud and media bias. He has depended heavily on both.
Vucic has accumulated enormous informal power through patronage and abuse of state assets. He might be able to keep most of it by appointing a relatively “clean” (but pliable) prime minister now and in 2027 stepping down into the Prime Minister’s job. The first step he has already taken with the appointment this week of Đuro Macut, an endocrinologist without political experience. He might prefer amending the constitution to allow a third term, but for now he doesn’t have the votes that would require in parliament.
Vucic has weathered more than one wave of massive protests. The students have a popular vision of a more responsible and accountable Serbian government. They also have lots of people joining them in the streets. But they may have forgotten that opposition unity, US and EU support, and Milosevic’s hubris were important factors in his downfall in 2000. They need also to remember that Vucic has welcomed Trump family money to invest in Serbia. He is hoping that will protect him, at least from Washington.
The question is whether the demonstrators can assemble the forces to unseat a wily and experienced operative. The requirements are well known. Much as I wish them well, I don’t know the answer.
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Okay, but still a long way to go
Yesterday was an election day in parts of the United States. The most important races were in two deep-red Congressional districts in Florida and a state court judgeship in Wisconsin. In Florida, the Republicans won, despite heavy Democratic spending. The margins were half of what Trump had scored just five months ago. In Wisconsin, the more liberal candidate won a Supreme Court seat, despite Elon Musk’s massive spending and personal campaigning.
By-elections don’t often excite the US. But the media had billed these as early referendums on the Trump Administration. The Wisconsin contest will decide the court’s balance on issues like abortion and redistricting. That could be important in the long run. The Florida races will not change the majority in the House, but they are bellwethers. They suggest a big shift away from Trump.
Break it and never fix it
Nevertheless, no one should expect big changes. Trump today will announce big tariffs. That will trigger retaliation against US exports worldwide. Musk’s firing of government workers continues, including Internal Revenue Service people who collect far more additional in taxes than they cost. The National Security adviser continues to use insecure communications. The immigration enforcement folks have admitted at least one mistaken deportation, but they are not going to try to bring the man back from El Salvador. This is the break it and never fix it Administration.
That applies also abroad. Trump has left Ukraine dangling. Kyiv has agreed to a limited ceasefire but Trump can’t get Moscow to do likewise. Encouraged by Trump’s bellicosity, Israel is breaking the ceasefire with Hamas. Greenlanders have made it clear they don’t want to be part of the US, but Trump is proceeding with planning to take over the vast ice land. Canadians have done likewise, but Trump persists.
How will this play out?
Most of my friends want to know how all this will eventually play out. The short answer is I don’t know. We seem to still be far from the kind of political upheaval that will reverse the madness. Senator Booker broke the record for speaking in the Senate yesterday, at over 25 hours denouncing the Administration. That may rally some support from a few Democrats. There will be demonstrations countrywide this Saturday, but Trump and his minions will ignore those.
Until there is a Democratic majority in at least one of the Houses of Congress, it is up to the courts to slow and block the worst of Trump’s behavior. They are doing okay. But they are expensive and slow. Their remedies are often blunt or lacking. And ultimately the supermajority of “conservatives” (that is Republican hacks) on the Supreme Court get to decide. Justices Alito and Thomas will do anything Trump wants. The other four Republican nominees are not far behind.
Diasporas are the best hope
Even the courts won’t help much with foreign policy, as the President’s powers there are vast. The best hope lies in diasporas from around the world. They have a lot of domestic influence in parts of the United States. I’m told the diaspora was responsible for getting Marco Rubio to say the right thing recently about Bosnia. That should be a lesson to Albanians, Ukrainians, Poles, Taiwanese, and others.
The key is to find a place where your diaspora can make a real difference in a House or Senate election outcome. Then find a major influencer or contributor to Republican campaigns willing to threaten to withdraw support. That may get a hearing, if you are connected in the right way. Trump is transactional. The diasporas have the potential to make transactional bargains with him.
Meanwhile, the rest of us marvel: is this the same America that once welcomed those yearning to breathe free? Or is this a revival of the 1920s and 1930s America that tried to limit immigration, raise tariffs, and isolate itself from Europe?
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Serbia is going backwards
I received this plea today from the below-named media editors in Serbia. The issues are not new but now the situation is dire. Serbia is headed away from Europe and back to autocracy, despite the massive protests.
Dear Colleagues,
We are reaching out to you as fellow journalists, deeply concerned about the alarming escalation of attacks on independent media in Serbia. As the attached letter outlines, the Serbian government has intensified its efforts to suppress critical reporting through smear campaigns, financial and regulatory pressure, and direct threats against journalists.
In recent months, our colleagues have been subjected to harassment, physical violence, and systematic disinformation. With ongoing student protests and political instability, the environment for independent journalism is becoming increasingly hostile, and we fear for the safety of our reporters on the ground.
We urge you to review the attached letter and consider using your platform to amplify these concerns. International attention is one of the few remaining mechanisms to push back against authoritarian media suppression. By reporting on these developments and engaging with press freedom organizations, you can help ensure that journalists in Serbia are not left to face this crisis alone.
Please do not hesitate to reach out if you require additional information or would like to discuss this matter further.
Editors of Independent Serbian Media
Igor Božić, N1 Serbia
Mihailo Jovićević, website Nova.rs
Dragoljub Petrović, daily Danas
Vesna Mališić, political weekly Radar
Slobodan Georgiev, TV Nova Serbia
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Proving the opposite of what he intends
President Dodik is trying to assert de facto independence of Republika Srpska (RS). That is the 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina he controls. He is doing this to escape arrest and removal from office after his conviction by a Bosnian court last month. Dodik was found guilty of defying both the Bosnian Constitutional Court and decisions of the international community’s High Representative. He compounded that violation Friday with new laws. They nullify the powers of the country’s judiciary, police, and intelligence services in Republika Srpska.
So far so good
NATO, the EU, and the Americans have reacted appropriately. NATO Secretary General Rutte is in Sarajevo today reasserting the Alliance commitment to the Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Europeans are sending 400 more peacekeepers, bringing the total to 1100. Secretary of State Marco Rubio tweeted:
The actions of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik are undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina’s institutions and threatening its security and stability. Our nation encourages political leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina to engage in constructive and responsible dialogue. We call on our partners in the region to join us in pushing back against this dangerous and destabilizing behavior.
All this is good.
More needs doing
But more could easily be done. I would like the peacekeepers to go to Brcko. It is the northeastern Bosnian town that was the center of gravity of the 1990s war. It will be the center of gravity of any new conflict as well. Without it, the RS cannot secede.
I also hope the NATO troops can, once the Constitutional Court nullifies his new laws, provide support to arrest Dodik. It would be a mistake to allow him to escape accountability. If he flees to Moscow or Hungary, that would be second best.
Dodik’s support
The Russians are supporting Dodik, as is Hungary’s russophile Prime Minister Orban. Moscow finances Dodik and objects to High Representative decisions. It sees RS as akin to the Russian-occupied oblasts of Ukraine. Orban has reportedly sent special forces to extract Dodik from RS if need be.
Serbian President Vucic has met with Dodik and provided rhetorical support, but he won’t want to RS independence. That would put him in a difficult position. The EU would want him not to recognize. His own electorate would want him not only to recognize but then also to annex the RS. If he does, Dodik will become a rival in Belgrade.
It is unclear how much support Dodik has within Bosnia. Even in RS, many people think he is going too far to protect himself, not its majority Serb population. His opposition will not enthusiastically welcome his arrest, but they won’t complain too much. He has dominated RS politics for almost two decades. Is “dovoljno” the right word?
The future of the RS
Dodik’s defiance is making it clear Bosnia can’t progress if RS continues to defy its courts, laws, and police. The ultimate solution lies in constitutional reform, which is difficult. In the meanwhile, progress on security, human rights, and political reform is possible. The right direction for the country as a whole is more individual rights and less group rights. That is what the European Court of Human Rights has ordered. Group rights to identify candidates as well as veto legislative and executive action empower ethnic nationalist politicians like Dodik. They make serious preparation for European Union membership impossible.
Dodik is, ironically, proving the opposite of what he intends. He is trying to show that the RS should be unconstrained by law and order. What he is really showing is that an unconstrained RS is a barrier to Bosnia’s functionality and EU future. It is time Dodik pays the price of his own criminal acts.
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Who should decide Bosnia’s fate?
I am delighted to see Milorad Dodik, president of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska (RS), held accountable. A Bosnian court convicted him Wednesday for his refusal to implement decisions of the international community’s High Representative.
But let’s not celebrate too much. Some of us remember how war criminal Radovan Karadzic behaved after the war in Bosnia. He continued to govern in the RS even though barred from office. Only when he went underground to escape capture did he lose control.
Dodik can pay a fine to escape the one-year prison sentence. The six-year ban on holding office will prove meaningless unless his loyalists are removed from power.
Is the bear a paper tiger?
That said, Dodik, known as the “Bosnian bear,” has so far been unable to rouse his supporters to outright rebellion. His threats of secession are proving hollow.
Serbian President Vucic will make a show of backing Dodik, but Belgrade doesn’t want the RS to secede. That would put Vucic in a tight spot. If he recognizes an independent RS, the European Union will be unhappy. If he doesn’t, his own ethnic nationalist constituency will be unhappy. Better for him if Dodik remains non grata and unable to compete politically. Vucic isn’t the first Serbian president to fear competition in Belgrade from a Bosnian Serb nationalist.
Only time will tell, but Dodik could be a paper tiger.
The self-licking ice cream cone
That won’t solve Bosnia’s problems. They are rooted in a stubbornly unreformed constitution the US and EU imposed at Dayton in 1995. It ended the war at the cost of functional governance. Changing that will require a new configuration of Bosnian politicians willing to risk the disapproval of ethnic nationalists. That configuration is difficult to produce because the constitution favors the election of ethnic nationalists. It’s a self-licking ice cream cone.
Dodik is only one mainstay of this self-perpetuating system. Croat nationalist Dragan Covic is another. He is still in place. Dodik’s plight will frighten Covic and make him an even harder line ethnic nationalist. He wants a “third entity” in Bosnia and is currying Moscow’s favor to get it.
Bosniak politicians also play the ethnic nationalist game. But they are more divided than either the Serbs or the Croats. They are also less fearful of a one-person/one-vote system. Their numerical majority gives them more confidence they can defend their vital interests.
The reforms needed
The needed reforms are no secret. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly said what Bosnia needs to do for EU membership. Jasmin Mujanovic has analyzed the options. Ismet Fatih Cancar has has outlined a route to Dayton 2.0, including NATO membership. But political leadership in these directions has been lacking.
Also lacking is international pressure in the right directions. The Biden Administration chose to appease Vucic and allowed the HiRep to coddle Covic. Jared Kushner’s business interests in Belgrade compromise the new Trump Administration from the start. Trump himself is an ethnic nationalist. If he agrees to partition of Ukraine, even temporarily, all bets are off for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
So the fate of Bosnia is where it should be: with its citizens. The conviction of Dodik can help, but far more is needed.
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