Tag: Balkans
Why partition of Kosovo is bad for Serbs
Today I spent a couple of hours at the Serbian orthodox monastery in Dečani, a 14th century beauty of enormous historical and religious significance to the Serbian Church. There is only one Serb living in the town, which lies in a cradle of the Kosovo Liberation Army. The monastery currently houses 24 monks and is building a guest house to handle an increased flow of visitors.
I heard no flag-waving Serb nationalism at the monastery. The mood there is contemplative and reflective. No one there wanted Kosovo independence, but political frameworks are transitory. The Church needs to ensure its own permanence.
Its primary concerns are two: the welfare of its flock and the protection of its churches, monasteries and other property. Most of these are south of the Ibar river, which is often proposed as the dividing line for a partition between the Serb-majority population of the north and the Albanian-majority population of the south. The Church opposes partition. It would lead to the loss of the Serb population south of the Ibar and most of the precious churches, monasteries and property.
But that view does not carry much weight in Belgrade, where the politicians simply want to hold onto something in Kosovo so that they can claim they have not lost everything. Nor is the Church particularly influential in northern Kosovo, where it has nevertheless tried to convince Serbs not to use violence.
It hasn’t been entirely successful at that either. Serbs in the north have erected barricades–including a large cross–on an important road. KFOR, the NATO-led force that is entrusted by the UN Security Council with ensuring a safe and secure environment in Kosovo, tried to remove them yesterday morning, leading to a clash in which two German soldiers and one American were reportedly injured. The Church is unhappy when such clashes occur, since they increase ethnic tension throughout Kosovo and raise doubts about whether the majority of Serbs who live south of the Ibar can continue to do so.
Kosovo’s government is currently completing the process of adopting constitutional amendments and laws to implement all aspects of the Ahtisaari plan, a proposal for settlement of the Kosovo dispute that was rejected by Belgrade because it entailed Kosovo independence. It provides extensive protection for Serbs and Church property. But the Church worries that constitutional amendments and laws are not sufficient. It wants international guarantees, since there are Albanian political parties that would seek to reverse anything done now to offer protection, should they come to power in the future.
The Western-educated elite that runs many Kosovo institutions today has good intentions. But this elite has little to do with the more traditional clan structures that hold power at the local level. The Church wants the international community to ensure that guarantees will last, no matter who comes to power in Pristina.
All of this sounds to me well grounded and rational. Unfortunately, it is not what we are hearing out of President-elect Tomislav Nikolić in Belgrade. He is still attached to partition ideas that would destabilize a large part of the Balkans.
It is high time Europe as a whole minced no words about this. I doubt Angela Merkel will: her message on a visit last summer to Belgrade was unequivocally against partition. She presumably won’t hesitate to reiterate that message now that two more Germans have been injured. But more is needed: Greece and Cyprus in particular need to recognize that their refusal to recognize Kosovo is encouraging partition proposals that, if adopted, would end with the partition of their favorite island.
Not to mention the loss of this spectacular monastery:
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Pristina is looking up
That’s Mother Teresa Street below, the grinning prime minister on the building that houses his party headquarters, and the city beyond. It never was one of Yugoslavia’s prettier spots: exotic Sarajevo, Mitteleuropa Zagreb, cheerful Ljubljana, cosmopolitan Belgrade and even hodge-podge Skopje have always seemed to me to have the advantage. But a few days here in a chilly but mostly dry springtime week suggest that Pristina is gaining gradually on its better known competitors and becoming more than a dowdy provincial capital.
Pristina’s week began in Cannes, where the paparazzi enjoyed Arta Dobroshin’s “Marilyn Monroe” moment. But if the Daily Mail was scandalized by Kosovo’s movie star exposing the wrong cheeks, people here–including Arta, whom I met at an avantgarde art show opening at the National Gallery on Wednesday–were not. They seem to be enjoying Kosovo’s racier image. We too, they seem to be saying, like kooky art works, spectacular legs, and a good glass of raki. There must be some grumbling imams in this nominally Muslim republic, but they are not much in evidence.
Of course the daily grind here is a good deal less glamorous, but the main downtown drag, Mother Teresa Street, has been jammed all week with young people. Last night it was mostly children enjoying mimes, clowns, pop music and cotton candy. My friends here all seem to favor Komiteti, an unpretentious but good bistro just around the corner from the former Communist Party headquarters, after whose central committee it is named (with tongue in cheek of course). But tonight I plan to visit Crème de la Crème, a well-known hangout of the city’s more cosmopolitan youth.
The city is unquestionably lacking in many amenities. There are no parks downtown, though the two nearby are more than adequately verdant this time of year. I refused yesterday to leave the tarmac in the larger one, where NATO cluster bombs are still occasionally found. I run on the oval street around the soccer stadium, where traffic is light in the early morning except for those seeking to park on the sidewalks. Ten times around is a pretty good 35-minute workout.
The stadium is not far from the glorious new Swiss Diamond hotel, which is a match for most first-class establishments in the U.S. or Western Europe. Its competition, the also newly opened Sirius, is likewise a big step up from the old Yugoslav Grand Hotel, whose renovation is still not complete. The smaller, “boutique” establishments in which I’ve stayed on recent visits are adequate–and I hope they’ll respond with upgrades to the newer and more glorious competition.
Are there any Serbs in town? Perhaps a few hundred, well-informed people answer. With a few more thousand in surrounding areas. I met one at a cocktail party after the art show opening. She works at the American embassy and speaks Albanian, which seems to be the principal requirement for a Serb living here. She feels comfortable in Pristina, she said readily, sipping wine. No doubt many other Serbs would tell me something quite different, some with good reason. There are still a lot of unreconciled people on both sides of the ethnic divide.
When I ask people in conflict zones what they most want, the answer more often than not is “a normal life.” I want, they say, my kids to go to school without being afraid, I want to go to work without hearing machine gun fire or other detonations, I want to travel to other countries and not worry too much about what is going on in my own. While for the poor life in Pristina and Kosovo generally is still very difficult, increasingly there is a middle class enjoying a normal life. Things in Pristina are really looking up.
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A fortiori
Marko Prelec of International Crisis Group asks a good question:
…if it is indeed a “miracle that the Kosovo government gets anything done with so many foreigners people looking over its shoulders” and thus “the time is coming this fall for this overly supervised country to struggle on its own”, is not the same true a fortiori of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where international supervision will this year mark its seventeenth anniversary?
The difference is in part constitutional. Kosovo has a workable constitution. Bosnia and Herzegovina does not, because the Americans in their haste froze in place the warring parties and then the international community failed to make adequate provision for returns. Had we written a constitution for Bosnia that was even half as savvy as the one for Kosovo (which had the benefit of the Bosnia experience), and achieved as much implementation, we wouldn’t still be hanging around.
The High Representative and EUFOR are also a lot less present in Bosnia than UNMIK, EULEX, and KFOR and the rest of the alphabet soup in Kosovo. The ICO (the International Civilian Office) is the exception that proves the rule. It has “Bonn”-type powers in Kosovo but hasn’t had to use them. That was wise restraint in part, but it was also that no really compelling occasion arose. The Dayton agreement is just a whole lot harder to implement than the Kosovo agreement, except in northern Kosovo. And there it will not be easy for the Kosovars or the international community to end supervision.
It is therefore not the length of time that the international community hangs around that determines whether it needs to stay longer. We stayed in Germany–administering Berlin no less–for 45 years, because of the Soviet occupation of the East. That’s the general rule: it is the specific conditions of the peace you are trying to implement that determine how long you stay. Kosovo has implemented the Ahtisaari plan. Bosnia has not fully implemented Dayton. Stability could break down and cause a big mess. So we stay until conditions allow us to leave. That isn’t unreasonable to me.
One could argue of course that shifting responsibility to the locals, as we are planning to do in Afghanistan, would force them to behave more responsibly. But that hasn’t really worked in Iraq, isn’t likely to work in Afghanistan and certainly won’t work in Bosnia, where Republika Srpska has no intention at all of implementing the provisions of the Dayton agreements that it doesn’t like, much less help prepare Bosnia for European Union membership. A fortiori, it is not wise to expect better if international supervision is withdrawn. So it needs to stay.
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Goat rope
I arrived in Pristina yesterday and have enjoyed two days of intense conversations about Kosovo’s international relations, which are enormously complex for a country of less than 1.8 million inhabitants.
Let’s review the bidding. Kosovo declared independence in 2008, after almost nine years of UN administration following the 1999 NATO/Yugoslavia war. Serbia, of which Kosovo was at one time a province, did not concur in independence and has not recognized the Kosovo state’s sovereignty. But 90 other countries have, including the United States and 22 of the 27 members of the European Union (EU) and 24 of 28 members of NATO. Russia has blocked approval of UN membership in the Security Council, at the behest of Serbia. An International Civilian Office (ICO) will supervise Kosovo’s independence until September, when it plans to certify that the Kosovo government has fulfilled its responsibilities under the international community “Ahtisaari plan” (the Comprehensive Proposal for the Kosovo Status Settlement). That was intended to be the agreement under which Kosovo became independent but was implemented unilaterally (under international community pressure) by the Kosovo government when Serbia refused to play ball. Belgrade and Pristina talk, but almost exclusively in an EU-facilitated and US-supported dialogue limited to resolution of technical, not political, issues.
Even after the ICO closes, Kosovo will be under intense international scrutiny (for a fuller account, see the Kosovar Center for Security studies report). NATO provides a safe and secure environment and is training its security forces for their enhanced roles after the July 2013. An EU rule of law mission monitors Kosovo’s courts and provides international investigators, prosecutors and judges for interethnic cases. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) provides training and advice on democratization, human and minority rights. The Council of Europe (CoE) administers programs on cultural and archaelogical heritage, social security co-ordination and cybercrime. The UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) continues despite its inconsistency with both the Ahtisaari plan and the declaration of independence, which at Serbia’s behest the International Court of Justice has advised was not in violation of international law or UN Security Council resolution 1244 (which established UNMIK).
Kosovo’s many complications get even worse north of the Ibar river, in the 11% of the country’s territory contiguous with Serbia that is still not under Pristina’s control. It may not really be under Belgrade’s control either, but that makes the situation there even more difficult. Partition of that northern bit, which Belgrade authorities have pursued, would likely precipitate ethnic partitions in other parts of the Balkans: Macedonia, Bosnia and Cyprus would all be at risk if Kosovo were split, an outcome neither Europe nor the U.S. wants to face. Serbia’s President-elect Nikolic suggested last week that Belgrade might recognize the Georgian break-away regions of South Ossetia and Abhazia, a move that would simultaneously deprive Serbia of its heretofore principled stance against Kosovo independence but at the same time reinforce Belgrade’s hope for partition of northern Kosovo.
What we’ve got here is a goat rope, as the U.S. military says. The situation seems hopelessly tangled. It is a miracle that the Kosovo government gets anything done with so many foreigners people looking over its shoulders. It naturally also has to meet domestic expectations, which are increasingly in the direction of more independence and fewer non-tourist foreigners, though Americans seem always to get a particularly warm welcome because of their role in past efforts to protect Kosovo from the worst ravages of Slobodan Milošević.
Kosovo unquestionably continues to need help. OSCE recently organized Serbian presidential elections in the Serb communities of Kosovo, a task that would have proven impossible for the Pristina or the Belgrade authorities. NATO has a continuing role because it will be some years yet before Kosovo can defend itself for even a week from a Serbian military incursion, which is unlikely but cannot be ruled out completely until Belgrade recognizes the Kosovo authorities as sovereign. The Kosovo courts would still find it difficult to have their decisions fully accepted in many cases of interethnic crime.
But the time is coming this fall for this overly supervised country to struggle on its own, making a few mistakes no doubt but also holding its authorities responsible for them. Kosovo needs a foreign policy that will take it to the next level. That means not only untangling the goat rope (or occasionally cutting through it) but also achieving normal relations with Belgrade and UN membership. There is no reason that an intense effort over the next decade cannot take Kosovo into NATO and perhaps even into the EU, or close to that goal, provided it treats its Serb and other minority citizens correctly and resolves the many outstanding issues with Belgrade on a reciprocal basis, and peacefully.
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Memorial Day for all, again
I have little to add to what I said last year on Memorial Day, so I am republishing what I said then:
I spent my high school years marching in the Memorial Day parade in New Rochelle, New York and have never lost respect for those who serve and make sacrifices in uniform. Even as an anti-war protester in the Vietnam era, I thought denigration of those in uniform heinous, not to mention counterproductive.
It is impossible to feel anything but pride and gratitude to those who have served in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention Kosovo, Bosnia, Panama and Somalia during the previous decade. Nor will I forget my Memorial Day visit to the American cemetery in Nettuno accompanying Defense Secretary Les Aspin in the early 1990s, or my visit to the Florence cemetery the next year. These extraordinarily manicured places are the ultimate in peaceful. It is unimaginable what their inhabitants endured. No matter what we say during the speechifying on Memorial Day, there is little glory in what the troops do and a whole lot of hard work, dedication, professionalism and horror.
That said, it is a mistake to forget those who serve out of uniform, as we habitually do. Numbers are hard to come by, but a quick internet search suggests that at at least 1000 U.S. civilians have died in Iraq and Afghanistan. They come in many different varieties: journalists, policemen, judges, private security guards, agriculturalists, local government experts, computer geeks, engineers, relief and development workers, trainers, spies, diplomats and who knows what else. I think of these people as our “pinstripe soldiers,” even if most of them don’t in fact wear pinstripes. But they are a key component of building the states that we hope will some day redeem the sacrifices they and their uniformed comrades have endured.
I spend my working hours worrying about how to improve the performance of the pinstripe soldiers, but that should not reduce by one iota appreciation for them. These are people who sometimes go places before they are safe enough for the troops, and they stay long after the troops are withdrawn. I hope my readers will add a minute to their Memorial Day reflections for those who serve in mufti. And count the many non-Americans who support our people also in your appreciation.
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Nikolić gets his break
This is a somewhat more detailed and updated version of a piece The National Interest published this morning as “Serbian Transition Worries West”:
On his fourth try, Tomislav Nikolić won Serbia’s presidential election Sunday, defeating incumbent Boris Tadić by a narrow margin. Turnout was low. The number of ruined ballots was high. The electoral mechanism appears to have worked smoothly, freely and fairly.
Nikolić’s victory in this second round of the presidential election comes on the heels of his party’s victory in the parliamentary polls, which gave it the largest number of seats. A majority of Serbs was fed up with a leadership that had failed to deliver jobs, economic vitality, sufficient progress in Serbia’s efforts to gain membership in the European Union, or Serbian sovereignty over Kosovo.
An ethnic nationalist with a history of support to Slobodan Milošević and of close ties to radical nationalist and war crimes indictee Vojislav Šešelj, Nikolić broke from Šešelj in 2008. Allegations that Nikolić committed war crimes in Croatia in the early 1990s have not been proven in court, and he won a related defamation suit in 2009.
Since breaking with Šešelj, Nikolić has taken a more pro-Europe line, while maintaining promises of never recognizing the independence of Kosovo. In this, he is no different from Tadić, who however had convinced Brussels and Washington of his bona fides. American and European officials will be nervous about Nikolić, whose recent moderation they worry could be tactical.
How should Europe and the United States react to Nikolić’s election? Calmly and purposefully. The purpose should be to bring about genuine and deep reform in Serbia, which has failed in the more than 10 years since Milošević’s fall to purge fully its security services, investigate high-level involvement in war crimes and hiding of war criminals, give up its control of northern Kosovo or support the establishment of a viable Bosnian central government. Washington and Brussels have put up with this, fearing that a tough line would undermine Tadić at the polls and strengthen nationalists like Nikolić.
The coddling of Tadić has not worked. Tadić sought credit with nationalist voters by promising never to recognize Kosovo’s independence and supporting the Serb entity in Bosnia to the hilt. Its increasingly nationalist president campaigned openly for Tadić, who failed for years to provide the support to expensive international efforts in Kosovo and Bosnia that would make them successful.
Some in Brussels and Washington will still want to play their hand in formation of the new government by pushing for Tadić’s Democratic Party to lead the majority in parliament and “cohabit” with President Nikolić. That may be the way things will turn out, even though Nikolić’s party won more seats, if the Democratic Party alliance with Ivica Dačić holds. Some think such an arrangement would enable Serbia to make policy adjustments that Tadić was unwilling to make on his own, for fear Nikolić and others would benefit.
But there is no reason to believe that a Democratic Party-led government coalition under a Nikolić presidency will necessarily prove better from an American or European perspective than the outgoing Democratic Party-led government under Tadić. Cohabitation could allow Tadić to continue promising without delivering, with the blame cast on Nikolić. Washington and Brussels should look this gift horse in the mouth, trying to ensure that it is truly committed to a course they can support before encouraging or rewarding it.
If Nikolić forms a government without the Democratic Party, prying Dačić away from his alliance with the Democrats and relying on other more conservative nationalists like former prime minister Vojislav Koštunica, the result would be far more coherent. Washington and Brussels would then be free to push hard for real policy changes.
But it is unclear whether Nikolić would in fact choose the EU path over closer ties with Russia, where he is planning to make his first foreign visit since the election. If Nikolić chooses to align Serbia more closely with Moscow, that won’t make anyone in Washington or Brussels happy, but it will relieve them of the burden of worrying about Serbia’s “Atlantic” orientation.
Alternation in power is an essential feature of truly democratic systems. It has now happened in Serbia for the first time since the fall of Milošević. Europe and the United States should recognize in these elections a clear expression of the will of Serbia’s people: like others in Europe, they wanted change. In Serbia the only viable alternative was the more nationalist, less pro-European variety.
What Brussels and Washington need to do now is draw clear red lines that both can support wholeheartedly, no matter who gains power in Belgrade. Once the new parliamentary majority is formed and the government appointed, they should ask Serbia, which will seek a date to begin negotiations for European Union membership, to end its resistance to Kosovo’s independence, to push the Bosnian Serbs towards full acceptance of the Sarajevo government and to begin deep reform of the security services. There is no reason to coddle Nikolić, who in the past has proven himself pragmatic when faced with clear and forceful requirements.
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