Tag: China
Reenter
President Trump has driven the United States into a cul-de-sac. Withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (aka Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) and re-imposition of sanctions has made it nigh on impossible for Iran to gain the economic benefits of the agreement. But rather than driving Tehran back to the negotiating table, Washington has strengthened its hardliners and given them an excuse to begin enriching uranium beyond the level permitted by the JCPOA, which they threaten to reach within the next 10 days. The Iranians may also have attacked shipping in and near the Gulf, though that is still an unverified American and British allegation.
The first law of holes applies to this situation: when you are in a hole, stop digging. Trump of course is not law-abiding, so instead he is increasing the US troop, naval, and air force presence in the Gulf. That’s simply foolish: it puts more Americans at risk. I’ll know this administration is serious about attacking Iran when it removes as much of the exposed military and civilian presence in the Gulf as possible. Much of it–including the warplanes at Al Udeid in Qatar–are within the range of Iranian missiles. They and the embassies in Muscat, Doha, Manama and likely Riyadh will need to be draw down in advance of even a limited strike.
The alternative is to reenter the JCPOA, which would have prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons before 2025 or so and arguably thereafter. Had the US stayed in the deal and ensured that the benefits flowed to Tehran, it could now be arguing for negotiations on missiles and Iran’s regional behavior with support from Europe and perhaps even Russia.
It could also have argued for a follow-on nuclear agreement. Iran has very good reasons not to go all the way to developing nuclear weapons. Well-informed Israelis have long believed that Tehran wants to develop all the enabling technology but not build nuclear weapons or deploy them, for fear of what Israel might do if it thought Iran might do so. Even the current runup of enrichment is explicitly planned to stop before the levels needed for nuclear weapons are reached.
The only way out of America’s current cul-de-sac is to back up. Tehran has made plain that it will talk with Washington only if the US reenters the JCPOA. I imagine they might even offer some sweeteners: release of some US citizens from prison, for example, or a modicum of restraint in Yemen, where their Houthi partners are not doing brilliantly anyway. President Trump has backed up in the past with an aspiring nuclear power, when he agreed to meet Kim Jong-un in Singapore. He could do it again, with his usual triumphalist bombast about how the Iranians will be his newest best friends once they see the Trump golf courses they might acquire. The Iranians understand that the North Koreans have not yet given up anything significant in exchange for Trump’s good graces. They might hope for the same treatment.
But Tehran also might figure that Pyongyang is treated with kid gloves because it does in fact have nuclear weapons. The closer Tehran gets without triggering an Israeli reaction, the better from the point of view of the Supreme Leader. So he might just prefer that Trump continue digging his hole by putting more American military and civilian assets at risk. Iran is a country of more than 80 million people. It endured an 8-year war with Iraq, suffered enormous casualties, and continues to pride itself on “resistance.” An American air attack would strengthen Iran’s hardliners further and dismay the Europeans, Russia, and China. Why not let Trump bury himself in the hole he has dug?
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Peace Picks June 10- June 15
1. India’s Election results: Impacts on the Economy and Economic Relations with Washington|June 10th, 2019|2:30pm-4:30pm|Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004|Register Here
On May 23, India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was catapulted back into power with a landslide victory in national elections. Two of the biggest immediate challenges in its second term will be economic: Tackling rising unemployment, and pursuing an economic reform plan that struggled during the BJP’s previous term. The new Indian government will also confront considerable challenges in its trade relations with Washington, a key partner. What is the election result’s impact for India’s economy? What might it mean for the U.S.-India economic relationship, which has lagged behind the fast-growing defense partnership? What is the potential for bilateral cooperation in the high-tech and innovation sectors? More broadly, how significant are the strains on the commercial side, and to what extent do they affect U.S.-India strategic partnership? Do U.S.-China trade tensions have implications for India and U.S.-India relations? This event will address these questions and more.
Moderator:
Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center
Speakers:
Suman Bery, Public Policy Fellow at the Wilson Center
Richard M. Rossow, Wadhwani Chair, U.S.-India Policy Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Seema Sirohi, Senior Journalist and Columnist, The Economic Times (India)
Jeremy Spaulding, Founder and President, JMS Innovation & Strategy, and Senior Advisor and Program Architect, Alliance for US International Business
2. The Deal of the Century: What About Palestinian Citizens of Israel?|June 11th, 2019|10:00am-11:00am|Foundation for Middle East Peace, 1319 18th Street NW Washington, DC|Register Here
In addition to examining the ramifications of recent political and legislative developments in Israel and the so-called “Deal of the Century,” panelists will discuss the central role of the Palestinian Arab minority in promoting the conditions necessary for a sustainable peace and how the international community can support it in that role.
Moderator:
Lara Friedman, President of the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP)
Panelists:
Jafar Farah, Founder and Director of the Mossawa Center, the Advocacy Center for Arab Citizens in Israel
Shibley Telhami, Sadat Professor for Peace and Development, Director of the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Maya Berry, Executive Director of the Arab American Institute (AAI).
Jeremy Ben-Ami, President of J Street, bringing to the organization deep experience in American politics, a strong belief in the power of diplomacy and a passionate commitment to the state of Israel.
3. Strategic Interest and Leadership in the United Nations|June 13th, 2019|9:30am-11:00am|CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Although there are existing criticisms surrounding the United Nations, a functioning United Nations remains in the U.S. interest. One of the most critical roles the United Nations plays is addressing global problems and burden sharing the costs of security, development, and other public goods. CSIS would like to use this opportunity to identify areas of bipartisan agreement over the U.S. role in the United Nations. Please join us for a public armchair discussion with Governor Bill Richardson and Catherine Bertini which will reflect on the progress made at the United Nations since its formation and will examine how the United States can partner with the United Nations for its economic and national security interests.
Speakers:
Catherine Bertini, Former Executive Director, United Nations World Food Programme
Bill Richardson, Former Governor of New Mexico and Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
4. The Future of Taiwan-US Relations | June 12th, 2019 | 10am-12:45am | The Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium 214 Massachusetts Ave NE Washington, DC 20002 | Register Here
In this, the 40th year of the Taiwan Relations Act, it bears evaluating the state of the Taiwan-US relationship. There are many positive signs, arms sales, significant unofficial diplomatic contact, and a peak in Congressional activity. There are also signs of reserve on the part of the US administration, including uncertainty over the sale of F-16 fighter jets that have been under consideration for more than 10 years, a failure to pick up on the idea of a US-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement, and a low key opening of the new American Institute in Taiwan. On the other side of the relationship, Taipei is election season, with a range of possible outcomes. So where are US-Taiwan relations today and where are they headed in the short to medium term. Please join us for an assessment, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Szu-chien Hsu and a discussion with leading experts on the relationship from both sides of the relationship.
Panel 1: Economic Statecraft and Opportunity
Panelists:
Moderator: Walter Lohman, Director, Asian Studies Center, The Heritage Foundation
Szu-chien Hsu, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan)
Riley Walters, Policy Analyst, Asia Economy and Technology, The Heritage Foundation
Roy Chun Lee, Associate Research Fellow and Deputy Director of the Taiwan WTO and RTA Center, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research
Panel 2: The Defense of Taiwan, Peace and Security
Moderator: Walter Lohman, Director, Asian Studies Center, The Heritage Foundation
Panelists:
I-Chung Lai, President of the Prospect Foundation
Scott Harold, Associate Director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy
5. What is happening in Idlib?|June 13th, 2019|11:00am-12:00pm|Turkish Heritage Organization|Register Here
Please join THO as we host a teleconference on the current situation in Idlib. More details will be announced soon.
Speakers:
Ammar Al Selmo, White Helmets Volunteer
Mariam Jalabi, Representative to the UN for the Syrian National Coalition
6. The Role of Open Data in Strengthening Nigerian Democracy|June 11th , 2019|2:00pm-3:30pm|National Endowment for Democracy, 1025 F Street, N.W., Suite 800, Washington, D.C. 20004|Register Here
Transparent, accessible, and credible data has emerged as a key tool for safeguarding the integrity of Nigeria’s democracy against conflict, corruption, and abuses of power. Data empowers civil society, journalists, and citizens to hold power-holders accountable and to expose and address corruption. Data equips government to make policy by providing foundational information about the Nigerian population and its needs. Data improves Nigeria’s information space, countering disinformation and enhancing the quality of reporting. Yet, data has not been used to its full potential in Nigeria. Though the government is increasingly releasing data to the public, it is often inaccessible and difficult to understand. Further, lack of capacity and political will has hindered robust data collection on critical issues. Join us in discussion with our esteemed panelists.
Speakers:
Joshua Olufemi, Current head of knowledge and innovation at Premium Times and Program Director at the Premium Times Centre for Investigative Journalism (PTCIJ) in Abuja
Christopher O’Connor, senior program officer for West Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a private, nonprofit foundation dedicated to the growth and strengthening of democratic institutions around the world
7. Peering Beyond the DMZ: Understanding North Korea behind the Headlines|June 11th , 2019|12:00pm-1:30pm|Hayek Auditorium, Cato Institute|Register Here
Negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program are at an impasse, and tensions are rising. And while neither side appears to want a war, the path to a diplomatic solution remains unclear. What is obvious, however, is that most U.S. policymakers have little understanding of what the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is or how it operates, a fact that limits America’s ability to peacefully resolve the crisis. Join us as our panelists offer their insights into the “Hermit Kingdom”
Moderator:
Doug Bandow, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute
Panelists:
Heidi Linton, Executive Director, Christian Friends of Korea
Randall Spandoni, North Korea Program Director and Senior Regional Advisor for East Asia, World Vision
Daniel Jasper, Public Education and Advocacy Coordinator for Asia, American Friends Service Committee
Moderator: Doug Bandow, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute
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Trust but verify
On May 29 the Hudson Institute hosted Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley Jr., who talked about the arms control landscape in regard to Russia and China, focusing on the modernization of their nuclear arsenals. Lt. Gen. Ashley’s remarks and the audience Q&A were followed by a panel discussion featuring Dr. James H. Anderson, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans and Capabilities, U.S. Department of Defense, Tim Morrison, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Weapons of Mass Destruction and Biodefense, National Security Council (NSC), and Thomas DiNanno, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense Policy, Emerging Threats, and Outreach, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, U.S. Department of State.
Ashley explained how Russia has been upgrading the capacity of its nuclear forces. In addition to a growing stockpile of nuclear weapons Russia has been adding new capabilities to its arsenal, especially non-strategic nuclear weapons with greater range, accuracy and lower yield. The DIA estimates Russia has up to 2000 of these new non-strategic warheads. Russia has also explored new nuclear delivery systems, such as nuclear powered and nuclear armed underwater drones and nuclear armed cruise missiles. Furthermore, Russia’s new 9M729 intermediate range ballistic missile violates the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
Russia has also worked on their upload capability. Currently the New START treaty between the United States and Russia limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550, and the number of platforms deployed to 700. Russia, Ashley says, has been working on delivery systems with additional warhead capacity, allowing them to quickly go beyond the New START limit of 1550 warheads if needed. Russia prioritizes its nuclear programs over others, having increased the ROSATOM (the State Nuclear Energy Corporation) budget by over 30% in recent years. Russia sees nuclear weapons as the ultimate war fighting tool and considers “nuclear use to compel and end a conventional conflict.” This modernization is not only aimed at deterring the United States, but also at China and its growing nuclear arsenal.
China, Ashley says, will at least double its nuclear stockpile in the next decade and launched more ballistic missiles last year than the rest of the world combined. Had China been a signatory to the INF their DF-26 and DF-21 missiles, which could be used regionally in the South China Sea, would have been in violation of the treaty. They are also working on new road and silo-based ICBMs as well as new nuclear submarines and nuclear bombers, completing their nuclear triad. China may well be preparing nuclear test sites for year-round use and their behavior is inconsistent with the rules and intent of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), Ashley says.
Ashley pointed out that Russia does not have a “no first-use policy” and considers the first use of nuclear weapons an opportunity to control escalation. A translated phrase from an interview with Russian officials comes out to “escalate to win.”
During the panel discussion, Tim Morrison explained that the world has moved on from the Cold War and limited bilateral treaties and needs better and wider arms control. China should now be included in nuclear arms treaties. Russian violations of the INF treaty compel the US to consider if it can afford to be the only country bound to it. The biggest obstacle to effective arms control is the need for verification measures and rules for timely and consequential punishment for treaty violations and non-compliance.
DiNanno echoed Morrison’s sentiment that more effective verification and enforcement measures are needed. This is only possible if there is trust among the US, Russia, and China. Quoting President Reagan, DiNanno said the US should “trust but verify.” The US should withdraw from the INF treaty in early August if Russia is not in compliance by then.
Anderson discussed the differences between the US, Russian, and Chinese modernization programs. Russia has an estimated 2000 warheads not covered by the New START treaty. Moscow’s talk about nuclear weapons as well as actions in Georgia and Ukraine are troubling. Similarly, Beijing is rapidly expanding its arsenal and is closing in on the nuclear triad following President Xi’s call for China to acquire a first-tier military.
In contrast, US modernization is not nearly as far along as Russia’s, which is almost 80% complete. The US is not building new nuclear weapons, has run no nuclear tests since the 1994 agreement, and is still using older equipment. Anderson says:
The US is in the infancy of its modernization. The Ohio-class nuclear submarines, first introduced in 1981, are set to be replaced in 2031 after 50 years in service. The Minuteman III ICBM was first deployed in 1970 and is only due for replacement in 2029. The B-20 program will eventually replace the aging B-52 and B-2a bomber fleet but is set to augment them first. More importantly, unlike Russia and China the United States has been very transparent about its nuclear arsenal.
Anderson also mentions the importance of US modernization for deterrence, establishing a backbone for US efforts and “giving our diplomats a strong hand in negotiating arms control.
With the advancement of Russian and Chinese missile technology the panelists brought up the necessity for the US to continue to develop and improve its missile defense systems. Russia and China, however, routinely complain about them. Anderson pointed out the double standard in their critique: China and Russia are both interested in missile defense themselves, with Russia having set up 68 missile defense batteries around Moscow alone. Heinrichs asked why the US has not increased its missile defense budget to counter the threats from Russian offensive nuclear arsenals and capabilities. Anderson spointed to work being done in cooperation with NATO allies to increase missile defense through newer technologies such as boost-stage defense and lasers.
The biggest takeaway arose from discussion of Russia’s nuclear test sites and their interpretation of the 0-yield nuclear testing norm. Morrison said he would not conduct diplomacy in public but also commented “Russia has taken actions, not preparations, which run counter to its public statements.” Neither Ashley nor the panel members would directly state that Russia has tested nuclear weapons recently, but all confirmed it with their responses. Everyone agreed that now more than ever good faith negotiations and working multilateral treaties are needed to prevent further escalation and a renewed nuclear arms race.
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Overload
The Trump Administration has taken on a lot of foreign policy burdens:
- Replacing Venezuelan President Maduro with opposition interim President Guaido.
- Ending North Korea’s nuclear program.
- Solving the Israel/Palestine conflict.
- Getting Mexico to end transit of asylum-seekers headed for the US.
- Negotiating a trade deal with China.
- Initiating talks on nuclear, missile, and regional issues with Iran.
Right now, President Trump is in London taking on still a few more burdens: encouraging Brexit, negotiating a trade deal with whatever remains of the UK thereafter, and pushing Boris Johnson as the next Prime Minister. So far, he is failing at all these things.
That is not surprising. The US government finds it hard to do two things at once, much less six high priorities and dozens of others lower down the totem pole. It is hard even to talk about priorities when there are so many. And some interact: you can’t impose tariffs on China without weakening Beijing’s commitment to sanctions on North Korea. Nor can you get Europe to support Jared Kushner’s cockamamie Middle East peace plan while dissing the Union’s interest in maintaining the nuclear agreement with Iran.
Any serious president would be re-examining and resetting priorities, with a view to accomplishing something substantial before the November 2020 election, less than 18 months off. Trump isn’t going to do that, because he believes he can create reality by what he says rather than what he accomplishes. Today in London he said the protests were negligible and the crowds adoring. He was booed pretty much everywhere he went in public. The photos with the Queen (courtesy of @Weinsteinlaw) couldn’t be more telling:
But no doubt Trump and his loyal press will portray the state visit as a great triumph.
That however does not change the reality. Trump has bitten off far more than he can chew. American prestige almost everywhere is at a nadir. Only in countries where ethnic nationalism or autocracy or both are in vogue does Trump enjoy some support: Hungary, Poland, Brazil, the Philippines, and Israel. Making America great again is admired only by those who have similar ambitions.
Without wider international support, there is little prospect that Trump can deliver on more than one or two of his foreign policy priorities before the next election. Failure to cut back on the multiple, sometimes contradictory, efforts makes it less likely that any will succeed. The Administration is overloaded and doomed to failure.
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Peace Picks June 3-June 9
1. How Security Cooperation Advances US Interests|June 4th, 2019|10:00am-11:00am|Brookings Institution|Saul Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
One of the United States’ key strategic advantages is a global web of alliances that allow it to project power and influence abroad. Defense security cooperation includes defense trade and arms transfers, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, institutional capacity building, and international education and training activities. The United States leverages these programs to ensure its allies and partners have the capability to defend themselves and carry out multinational operations while also building up relationships that promote American interests. As near-peer competitors seek to erode U.S. technological advantages, the importance of security cooperation will only grow in the coming years.
On June 4, Brookings will host a conversation between Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon and Lt. General Charles Hooper, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), on how DSCA advances U.S. foreign policy objectives in an era increasingly driven by great power competition.
2. Europe’s Populist and Brexit Economic Challenge|June 4th, 2019|2:00pm-4:00pm|American Enterprise Institute|Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Europe’s political landscape is becoming much more challenging, as evidenced by the strong showing of populist parties in the recent European parliamentary elections and by the deepening Brexit crisis. This event will examine how serious these challenges are to the European economic outlook and the economic policies that might be needed to meet these challenges.
Agenda:
1:45 PM
Registration
2:00 PM
Introduction:
Desmond Lachman, AEI
2:05 PM
Panel discussion
Panelists:
Lorenzo Forni, Prometeia Associazione
Vitor Gaspar, International Monetary Fund
Desmond Lachman, AEI
Athanasios Orphanides, MIT
Moderator:
Alex J. Pollock, R Street Institute
3:15 PM
Q&A
4:00 PM
Adjournment
3. Countering Terrorism in the Middle East: A Situation Report|June 4th, 2019|3:00-4:30pm|Middle East Institute|1319 18thSt NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a public panel on countering terrorism in the Middle East, featuring high-level panelists representing the United States, the United Nations and the United Kingdom: Ambassador James Jeffrey, Edmund Fitton-Brown and Jessica Jambert-Gray.
The territorial defeat of ISIS’s self-declared Caliphate in March 2019 was a significant victory in the fight against terrorism, but the ISIS threat remains urgent and widely distributed across the Middle East and beyond. Al-Qaeda meanwhile, has faced a series of challenges in the years since the Arab uprisings of 2010 and 2011, with some of its affiliates appearing to have learned lessons from the past and adapted their strategies towards operating more durably, within existing and likely intractable local conflicts. That pursuit has been a defining feature of Iran’s regional strategy, in which local militant proxies – some designated terrorist organizations – are built and consolidated in order to become permanent fixtures of countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
The international community clearly has a long struggle ahead in terms of combating the threats posed by terrorist organizations. This panel will seek to discuss these challenges and address existing and future policy responses to them.
Panelists:
Ambassador James Jeffrey, Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, Special Representative for Syria Engagement, U.S. Department of State
Edmund Fitton-Brown, Coordinator, Analytical Support & Sanctions Monitoring Team, ISIS, Al-Qaeda & Taliban, United Nations
Jessica Jambert-Gray, First Secretary, Counter-Terrorism, British Embassy to the U.S.
Charles Lister, moderator, Senior Fellow and Director, Countering Terrorism and Extremism program, MEI
4. African Women’s Mobilization in Times of Unrest|June 5th, 2019|10:30am-3:00pm|Wilson Center|5thFloor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004-3027|Register Here
Please join the Wilson Center Africa Program and the Women and Peacebuilding in Africa Consortium for a discussion on “African Women’s Mobilization in Times of Unrest” on Wednesday, June 5, from 10:30 am to 3:00 pm in the 5th Floor Conference Room. The symposium will examine the cost of women’s exclusion and the possibilities for their inclusion in peacebuilding in war-affected African countries. Based on research conducted by the Consortium, this event will seek to provide evidence, comparative theoretical insights, and policy implications on women and conflict.
The morning session will focus on Women’s Mobilization in the Current Uprisings in Sudan and Algeriaand the ways in which women’s past mobilization has led to the extraordinary roles they are playing in leading the fight for democracy, inclusion, and transparency in the current Algerian and Sudanese uprisings.
The afternoon session will discuss Women Activists’ Informal Peacebuilding Strategies in conflicts in northern Nigeria and South Sudan. It will look at the costs of exclusion from formal peacebuilding processes, and explore efforts at inclusion in governance in Somalia
Moderators:
Aili Mari Tripp, Fellow, Professor of Political Science and Women’s Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Ayesha Imam, Coordinator, Baobab, A Women’s Human Rights Organization in Nigeria
Speakers:
Samia El Nagar, Independent Researcher, Sudan
Liv Tønnessen, Research Director, Chr Michelsen Institute, Norway
Helen Kezie-Nwoha, Executive Director, Isis-Women’s International Cross Cultural Exchange
Jackline Nasiwa, Founder and National Director, Centre for Inclusive Governance, Peace and Justice, South Sudan
Ladan Affi, Assistant Professor, Zayed University, Abu Dhabi
5. A Changing Ethiopia: Lessons from U.S. Diplomatic Engagement|June 5th, 2019|2:00pm-4:00pm|U.S. Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
With more than 100 million people, Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most important and populous countries. Recent changes in political leadership have heralded widely welcomed political and economic reforms, at home and abroad. Yet amid the positivity, Ethiopia faces notable challenges: many reforms remain transitory, the country’s broader national stability is being tested, and its internal politics disputed. Given the historically strong bilateral relationship with Ethiopia, how the United States responds and supports the transition in Ethiopia will be hugely significant for the country’s future.
During this crucial period of reform and uncertainty in Ethiopia, join the U.S. Institute of Peace to hear from a distinguished panel who will reflect on their experiences as serving diplomats in Ethiopia, and identify what lessons are relevant to engagement with Ethiopia today. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #AChangingEthiopia.
Participants:
Ambassador Johnnie Carson, opening remarks, Senior Advisor to the President, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador David Shinn, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia, 1996-1999; Adjunct Professor, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
Ambassador Aurelia Brazeal, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia, 2002-2005
Ambassador Donald Boot, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia, 2010-2013
Susan Stigant, Director, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
Aly Verjee, moderator, Senior Advisor, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
6. Understanding Extremism in Northern Mozambique|June 6th, 2019|9:00am-12:00pm|Center for Strategic & International Studies|2nd Floor, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Since their first October 2017 attack in Mozambique, Islamist extremists—invariably called al-Shabaab or Ahlu Sunna wa Jama—have conducted over 110 attacks, with more than 295 civilian and military deaths. Despite this escalating violence, there are significant gaps in our understanding of the problem. There is not a consensus about the key drivers of extremism in the region, including the linkages between local, regional, and international extremist networks. Experts have struggled to identify who comprises al-Shabaab (Ahlu Sunna wa Jama), and furnish answers to key questions regarding their objectives, recruitment, or funding sources.
Join the CSIS Africa Program on Thursday, June 6, 2019, from 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. for a half-day conference on growing insecurity in Mozambique. This event will feature two expert panels on the drivers of extremism and potential response efforts in Mozambique.
Panel 1: Examining Social, Political, and Religious Drivers
Featuring Dr. Alex Vines (Chatham House), Dr. Yussuf Adam (Universidade Eduardo Mondlane), and Dr. Liazzat Bonate (University of West Indies)
Moderated by Emilia Columbo
Panel 2: Exploring Regional and International Response Efforts
Featuring H. Dean Pittman (former U.S. Ambassador to Mozambique), Zenaida Machado (Human Rights Watch), and Dr. Gregory Pirio (Empowering Communications)
Moderated by Judd Devermont (Director, CSIS Africa Program)
This event is made possible by the general support to CSIS.
FEATURING:
Dr. Alex Vines OBE,Head, Africa Program at Chatham House
Dr. Yussuf Adam, Lecturer, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
Dr. Liazzat Bonate, Lecturer, University of West Indies
Dr. Gregory Pirio, Director, Empowering Communications
Amb. H. Dean Pittman, Former U.S. Ambassador to Mozambique
Zenaida Machado , Researcher, Human Rights Watch Africa Division
Judd Devermont, Director, Africa Program
7. After India’s Vote: Prospects for Improved Ties with Pakistan|June 6th, 2019|10:00am-11:30am|U.S. Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
In March, India and Pakistan moved to the brink of war. In response to a terrorist attack claimed by a Pakistan-based militant group, India conducted an airstrike into Pakistani territory for the first time since 1971. The next day, Pakistan downed an Indian MiG 21 jet and captured its pilot. By returning the pilot two days later, India and Pakistan avoided further immediate escalation. However, tensions remain high.
Now India’s just-completed parliamentary elections pose new questions: How will the next government in New Delhi engage Pakistan, and how might Islamabad respond? To share assessments of the likely trajectory of India-Pakistan relations following India’s election and the necessary steps to improve ties, USIP will host a panel on Thursday, June 6 from 10:00am-11:30am. Panelists will include two USIP senior fellows leading the Institute’s research on the best current options for reducing and resolving the 70-year-old India-Pakistan conflict.
Participants:
Ambassador Jalil Jilani, Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow, U.S. Institute of Peace
Former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States
Tara Kartha, Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow, U.S. Institute of Peace
Former Director of Indian National Security Council Secretariat
Josh White, Associate Professor, Johns Hopkins University
Vikram Singh, moderator, Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
8. China’s Changing Role in the Middle East|June 6th, 2019|12:00pm|Atlantic Council|12thFloor, 1030 15thSt NW, Washington, DC|Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council for a keynote address outlining the Trump Administration’s views on China’s changing role in the Middle East and the implications for US foreign policy by National Security Council Senior Director for the Middle East Dr. Victoria Coates. This will be followed by a panel discussion to mark the release of an Atlantic Council report on this subject by Dr. Jonathan Fulton, assistant professor of Zayed University in Abu Dhabi based on his research across the region. The discussion will also include a perspective from Dr. Degang Sun, a visiting scholar at Harvard University and deputy director of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University in China.
Opening remarks by:
Dr. Victoria Coates, Senior Director for the Middle East, US National Security Council
Panelists:
Dr. Jonathan Fulton, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Zayed University
Dr. Degang Sun, Visiting Scholar, Harvard University
Introduced and Moderated by:
Mr. William F. Wechsler, Director, Middle East Programs, Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
9. Brittle Boundaries: Creating Collective Cybersecurity Defense|June 6th2019|3:00pm-5:00pm|Wilson Center|5thFloor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004-3027|Register Here
Currently, efforts worldwide to defend information systems and respond to cybersecurity incidents are based on a combination of government led actions, isolated regulations, and a limited culture of information sharing between industry, government, and the security research community. The current cybersecurity threat environment can be characterized by independent actions with brittle boundaries. Looking forward, there is a need for government, industry, and the security research community to work collectively together in defending systems and responding to incidents.
Please join the Wilson Center for an event to discuss the state of cyber threats – especially to critical infrastructure – and options for building a global collective defense.
This event is held in co-operation with the Embassy of Switzerland in the United States and the Europa Institut at the University of Zurich.
Speakers:
Introduction
Robert S. Litwak, Senior Vice President and Director of International Security Studies
Ambassador Martin Dahinden, Ambassador of Switzerland to the United States
Andreas Kellerhals, Global Fellow, Director, Europa Institute, University of Zurich
Keynote
André Kudelski, CEO, The Kudelski Group
Christopher C. Krebs, Director of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Department of Homeland Security
Panelists
André Kudelski, CEO, The Kudelski Group
Christopher C. Krebs, Director of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Department of Homeland Security
Paige Adams, Group Chief Information Security Officer, Zurich Insurance Group
Meg King, Strategic and National Security Advisor to the Wilson Center’s CEO & President; Coordinator of the Science and Technology Innovation Program
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Peace Picks May 20-24
1. #CyberspaceIRL: Rule of Law Approaches to Virtual Threats|Tuesday, May 21st|9am-5:30pm|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
A $600 billion black market, cybercrime has transformed the digital world into a sophisticated platform to steal and profit from personal data, undermine civil rights, manipulate elections, disseminate anti-democratic propaganda, and steal intelligence. Yet, cyberspaces remain largely unregulated. This lack of governance is a major challenge and concern for legal practitioners, human rights champions, and policymakers. To properly address the complex world of cybercrimes, these key players must work together to prioritize targeted strategies encompassing cross-jurisdictional cooperation, both locally and globally.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace as we co-host the American Bar Association Rule of Law Initiative’s 2019 Annual Conference. Bringing together representatives from academia, national security, and the private and public sectors, this conference will identify rule of law strategies to more effectively address this ever-changing landscape.
#CyberspaceIRL will assess whether current approaches are sufficient in addressing the complexity of issues such as money laundering, trafficking, election security, and internet freedom, and identify the breadth of actors who must be part of devising and implementing effective strategies and solutions.
Agenda:
8:30am – 9:00am – Registration (coffee/pastries)
9:00 – 9:15 – Welcome and Introductions
David Yang, Vice President, Applied Conflict Transformation, U.S. Institute of Peace
Alberto Mora, Director, American Bar Association Rule of Law Initiative
Judge Margaret McKeown, Board Chair, American Bar Association Rule of Law Initiative
9:20am – 9:50am – Keynote: “Setting the Stage for the Clash of Norms in Cyberspace”
Sujit Raman, Associate Deputy Attorney General, U.S. Department of Justice
10:00am – 11:15am – Breakout Sessions
Legal Frameworks and Regional Initiatives
Rob Leventhal, moderator, Deputy Office Director, Office of Anticrime Programs, U.S. Department of State
Manuel de Almeida Pereira, Senior Legal Officer, Programme Manager, Council of Europe
Kenn Kern, Chief Information Officer, Special Assistant, International Relations, New York County District Attorney’s Office
Election Security and the Erosion of Trust in Democratic Institutions
Jonas Claes, moderator, Preventing Election Violence Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace
Katherine Ellena, Legal Advisor, International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Harvey Rishikof, Visiting Professor, Temple Law, former senior policy advisor to the director of national counterintelligence at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Saleela Salahuddin, Cybersecurity Policy Lead, Facebook
11:25am – 12:15pm – Plenary: The Tipping Point: When is Cyber Incitement Responsible for Violence? (the case of Burma/Myanmar)
Lata Nott, moderator, Executive Director of the First Amendment Center at the Newseum
Molly Land, Associate Director of the University of Connecticut’s Human Rights Institute and Professor of Law, University of Connecticut School of Law
Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Finance and Economics Expert Panel of Experts Established pursuant to UNSCR 1874
Richard Ashby Wilson, Gladstein Distinguished Chair of Human Rights and Professor of Law and Anthropology, University of Connecticut School of Law
12:15pm – 1:00pm – Lunch
1:00pm – 2:15pm – Breakout Sessions
Cybercrime Enforcement: Deterring State and Non-State Actors through Criminal Prosecutions
Steven M. Kelly, moderator, Chief of Cyber Policy of the Cyber Division at the Federal Bureau of Investigation
Luke Dembosky, Partner, Debevoise & Plimpton
Michael J. Stawasz, Deputy Chief for Computer Crime, U.S. Department of Justice, Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section
Sean Newell, Deputy Chief for Cyber, U.S. Department of Justice, Counterintelligence and Export Control Section
William Lyne, Liaison Officer, National Crime Agency, British Embassy to the United States
When Bitcoin Goes Bad: How Virtual Currencies Challenge the Rule of Law
Adam Zarazinski, moderator, CEO, Inca Digital Securities
Elisabeth Poteat, Attorney, Department of Justice, National Security Division
Michael Sachs, Chief, Investigative Division, New York County District Attorney’s Office
Yaya J. Fanusie, Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
2:30pm – 3:45pm – Breakout Sessions
Internet Freedom: Protecting the Good Guys while Catching the Bad Guys
Heather West, moderator, Senior Policy Manager at Mozilla
Andrea Little Limbago, Chief Social Scientist of Virtru
Bill Marczak, Research Fellow at Citizen Lab, and a Postdoctoral Researcher at UC Berkeley
Robyn Greene, Privacy Policy Manager, Facebook
Trafficking in the Digital Age
Jessie Tannenbaum, moderator, Legal Advisor, Research, Evaluation, and Learning Division, ABA ROLI
Danielle Kessler, Senior Policy and Outreach Manager, International Fund for Animal Welfare
Evan Ratliff, Journalist and author of The Mastermind: Drugs, Empire, Murder, Betrayal
Robert E. Bornstein, Assistant Special Agent in Charge, Criminal Division, Branch 1 of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Washington Field Office
3:45pm – 4:30pm – Closing Keynote Session: “Shaping the Future of the Cyber Landscape”
Glenn S. Gerstell, General Counsel, National Security Agency
Judge James E. Baker, ROLI Board & Syracuse University
4:30pm – 5:30pm – Reception
2. Visegrad Countries in the Transatlantic Alliance – Common Security, Shared Challenges|Tuesday, May 21st|10:30pm-12:00pm|Heritage Foundation|Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington, DC 20002| Register Here
The event cohosted by the Heritage Foundation and the Antall József Knowledge Center in Budapest, Hungary, will explore the diplomatic, economic, military and political importance of the V4. A special focus of the event will be relations between the Visegrád and the United States, how the region can one day develop into an anchor of U.S. engagement in Europe and continue contributing to robust transatlantic cooperation.
Panel:
Dušan Fischer, Project Manager, Air Force and Counter-Air Defense Projects Unit, Modernization Department, Ministry of Defence, Slovak Republic
Dominik P. Jankowski, Political Advisor & Head of the Political Section at the Permanent Delegation of the Republic of Poland to NATO
Hynek Kmoníček, Ambassador of the Czech Republic to the United States
László Szabó, Ambassador of Hungary to the United States
Moderated by:
Péter Stepper, Research Fellow, Editor, Antall József Knowledge Center
Hosted by:
James Carafano, Ph.D., Vice President and E.W. Richardson Fellow, Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy
Veronika Antall-Horváth, Deputy Director Antall József Knowledge Center
3. Violence Prevention in Southern Somalia|Tuesday, May 21st| 1pm-2:30pm|New America|740 15thSt NW #900, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
New America’s International Security Program and Peace Direct invite you to join them for a lunchtime panel discussion on violence prevention in southern Somalia. In March 2019, the capital city of Mogadishu saw seven terrorist attacks by Al-Shabaab in a single week. That, coupled with a recent uptick in counterterrorism ground, air, and drone strikes by the United States in cooperation with the government of Somalia, has called into question what it will take to establish peace in the southern part of the country.Peace Direct’s partner organization in Somalia, Social-Life and Agricultural Development Organization(SADO), has been working in the region for over two decades, looking at sustainable, people and community-centered development.
Topics that will be covered during the session include:
- What are the current obstacles and opportunities for peace in Somalia?
- Perspectives and recommendations from local peacebuilders on advancing peace in Somalia.
- What does practical violence prevention work in Somalia look like?
- What is the role of women in violence prevention?
- What is the role of U.S. policy in Somalia and what are recommendations for improving U.S. engagement?
Introductory Remarks:
Bridget Moix, U.S. Senior Representative and Head of Advocacy, Peace Direct
Panelists:
Isse Abdullahi, Director, Social-Life and Agricultural Development Organization (SADO)
Pauline Muchina, Public Education and Advocacy Coordinator for the American Friends Service Committee’s Africa region
Moderator:
Melissa Salyk-Virk, Policy Analyst, New America’s International Security Program
4. Is the Venezuela Crisis Becoming a Proxy Conflict?|Tuesday, May 21st|3:30pm-5pm|Carnegie Endowment for International Peace|1779 Massachusetts Ave NW|Register Here
Join Carnegie and the Inter-American Dialogue for a timely conversation about the geopolitical implications of the Venezuela crisis. Top Trump administration officials have repeatedly criticized Cuban, Russian, and Chinese backing for the Maduro regime, but they are struggling to change the situation on the ground. What is the strategic calculus propelling outside powers’ involvement in Venezuela? What risks does deeper foreign intervention in the crisis pose for the fate of the Venezuelan opposition led by interim President Juan Guaidó and the region as a whole?
Speakers:
Rebecca Bill Chavez, nonresident senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Western Hemisphere affairs
Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center
Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue
Francisco Toro, founder of Caracas Chronicles and opinion columnist for the Washington Post
5. Europe after the European Election|Wednesday, May 22nd|1pm-2:30pm|American Enterprise Institute|Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
While populism continues to be a dominant factor shaping Europe’s politics, the simplistic overuse of the label often obfuscates Europe’s actual political dynamics. Rather than populism, what makes the 2019 European election so significant is the degree of political fragmentation that will likely characterize the results. In all likelihood, power will continue to shift away from the once-dominant political families on the center right and the center left. How will that affect the composition of the future European Commission? Will it make the EU more difficult to govern? And why should Americans care?
Join Amb. Santiago Cabanas, Ben Judah, and Yascha Mounk— alongside AEI’s Dalibor Rohac and Stan Veuger— as they discuss Europe’s challenges and the way forward.
Agenda:
12:45 PM
Registration
1:00 PM
Welcome:
Dalibor Rohac, AEI
1:05 PM
Panel discussion
Panelists:
Santiago Cabanas, Ambassador of Spain
Ben Judah, Hudson Institute
Yascha Mounk, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Dalibor Rohac, AEI
Moderator:
Stan Veuger, AEI
2:10 PM
Q&A
2:30 PM
Adjournment
6. Managing Forced Displacement in Africa: How Collective Efforts Can More Effectively Address the Surge of Refugees and Displaced Persons|Thursday, May 23rd|9am-11am|United States Institute for Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
Africa hosts more than one-third of the world’s refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). This growing phenomenon impacts not only those fleeing conflict, but also the host communities and countries who now face complex logistical and humanitarian challenges. A comprehensive response to this problem must seek to address root causes, thereby preventing further displacement, and also find durable solutions for the many millions already displaced.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace, the African Ambassadors Group, and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars for a discussion on forced displacement in Africa. The panel conversation will highlight African policy responses to displacement at the national, regional, and continental level, discuss current and anticipated challenges, and brainstorm innovative approaches. Follow the conversation with #AfricaDayUSIP.
Light refreshments will be provided.
Speakers:
H.E. Soorooj Phokeer, opening and closing remarks, Ambassador of the Republic of Mauritius
Carol Thompson O’Connell, opening remarks, Acting Assistant Secretary for Population, Refugees, and Migration, U.S. Department of State
Ger Duany, Regional Goodwill Ambassador for the East and Horn of Africa, UNHCR
H.E. Wilson Mutagaywa Kajumula Masilingi , Ambassador of the United Republic of Tanzania
H.E Mull Ssebujja Katende, Ambassador of the Republic of Uganda
Nancy Lindborg, moderator, President, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. Powering the US-Japan Alliance| Thursday, May 23rd|11:30-1pm|Atlantic Council|1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Asia Security Initiative, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, and the Global Energy Center for a discussion of how energy dependence on the Middle East is shaping Japan’s quest for energy security, prospects for US-Japan strategic cooperation, and the future of energy security in Asia.
Japan’s newest strategic energy plan promises to address domestic structural energy issues in the context of broader shifts in global energy trends. If successful, the new strategy will deliver significant improvements in efficiency, emissions, cost, and self-sufficiency by 2030, and again by 2050. At the same time, Japan, like much of Asia, continues to depend heavily on the Middle East for hydrocarbon imports. How is energy dependence on the Middle East shaping Asian geopolitics and strategic prospects for the US-Japan alliance? How feasible are Japan’s efforts to reduce its dependence on energy imports, and what does it mean for Japan’s relationships with the Middle East? How are infrastructure projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy re-shaping energy geopolitics between both regions? Ultimately, what can the US-Japan alliance do to ensure energy security in a rapidly changing Indo-Pacific?
Lunch will be provided.
Featuring:
Prof. Koichiro Tanaka, Keio University and President of the Japanese Institute of Middle Eastern Economies
Ms. Jane Nakano, Senior Fellow Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mr. Mikkal E. Herberg, Senior Advisor National Bureau of Asian Research
Dr. Miyeon Oh, Director and Senior Fellow of the Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security
8. Negotiating with China during Peacetime, Crisis and Conflict|Thursday, May 23rd|2:30pm-4pm|American Enterprise Institute|Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
While there is no shortage of discussion about how war between the US and China could break out, few have asked how such a war might end. During crisis or conflict, how can we draw China to the negotiating table? How has China historically ended its wars, and how might this inform how the US approaches China diplomatically in peacetime, crisis, and war?
In her new book, “The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime” (Cornell University Press, 2019), Oriana Skylar Mastro asks: How can we get from fighting to talking? Join Dr. Mastro, Susan Thornton and Tom as they discuss US diplomacy with China in an era of great-power competition.
Agenda:
2:15 PM
Registration
2:30 PM
Welcome and summary of the book:
Oriana Skylar Mastro, AEI
2:45 PM
Panel discussion
Participants:
Thomas J. Christensen, Columbia University
Susan A. Thornton, Yale University
Moderator:
Oriana Skylar Mastro, AEI
3:30 PM
Q&A
4:00 PM
Adjournment
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