Tag: China
The trouble still brewing
Yesterday’s discussion at SAIS of Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil : Policy Adjustment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries raised serious issues. Oil prices are now expected to remain “lower longer,” as IMF deputy managing director Min Zhu put it. While contributing to global growth, the price decline is posing serious economic and governance challenges to the rentier states of the region and their relatively poor dependent cousins.
The 2014 oil price decline resulted from three main factors: increased production of tight oil and gas, slackening demand (especially due to economic slowdown in China and Russia) and increased efficiency. While prices have risen sharply from their lows early this year, the IMF expects them to remain well below their previous peak, with only gradual increases over the next five years or so to around $75 per barrel.
Some efficiency gains have already been erased, as oil prices have risen from their lows at the sharpest rate ever, even if they are still far off their peak. The shale revolution is not going away, even if many less productive wells have been shut. But larger ones are still producing. Much of the shut-in capacity will return as prices rise again.
This puts the oil producers in a difficult and long-lasting bind. The immediate impact was on their foreign exchange rate reserves, which are down dramatically. Growth is slowing. Budgets are being cut. The oil producers cannot continue to subsidize food and energy prices as well as avoid taxing their populations.
Sharply cutting their budgets however will not be a sufficient policy response, especially as it will have growth-reducing effects like limiting bank credit. The oil producers will need to undertake structural reforms to generate private sector growth that has heretofore been lacking. This is basically a good thing. Low oil prices will force producers to do what they’ve known for a long time they should have been doing, including cutting government jobs, reorienting it towards revenue collection rather than distribution and privatizing bloated state-owned enterprises.
But it is still difficult to picture how the oil producers will generate sufficient jobs to meet the needs of their bulging youth populations. If they somehow manage it, the social contract that has enabled the often non-democratic regimes to claim legitimacy will need revision, with citizens receiving less and asked to provide much more. Governing institutions will be under enormous strain as they try t o learn to collect taxes even as they reduce public services. Legitimacy will be in question. This is a recipe for trouble.
The fiscal squeeze will affect not only the oil producers themselves but also the states of the region to which they provide support, either in the form of aid or remittances. The eventual political consequences could be dramatic not only for the Gulf but also for Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan and others. We have not seen the end of consequences “longer lower” will generate.
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Trump’s defeat
With Hillary Clinton clinching the Democratic nomination, it is time to consider the far more likely scenario: that she will win the November election, become the first Madame President, and return to the White House in January. What are the implications for America and its foreign policy?
Trump’s defeat, the third in a row for Republicans, will leave the party weakened and possibly divided. It could well lose control of the Senate if not the House. Blame for this will be heaped on those who backed Trump, a blatant racist, misogynist and xenophobe. Balancing acts like this one will look ridiculous in the aftermath of an electoral defeat:
Those who did not support Trump will try to resurrect the direction the party thought it had chosen after the 2012 election: towards becoming more inclusive rather than less. That will be a hard sell once more than 70% of Hispanics (and 90% of African Americans), similar percentages of gas and lesbians, and a majority of women have chosen Clinton. Some of the defeated will try to launch a new party or join the Libertarians. Diehard Trumpies will head off into the white supremacist/neo-Nazi corner of American politics.
The Democrats will seek to exploit their moment of triumph. I imagine top of their priorities will be “comprehensive” immigration reform, including a pathway to citizenship for undocumented people. This would solidify their Hispanic support. I doubt Clinton will reverse her position on the Transpacific Trade Partnership (TTP), but she might well quietly encourage Barack Obama to get it done in the lame duck Congress, before she is sworn in, with some improvements. I hope she will back the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which raises fewer hackles that TTP.
Clinton will want to reassure America’s allies in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. She will look for ways to sound and act tougher on the Islamic State, Al Qaeda, Russia, Iran and China, which have each taken advantage of Obama’s retrenchment from the over-extension of the Bush 43 presidency to press the envelope on what Washington will tolerate. She will maintain the nuclear deal with Iran and likely try to follow a similar model with North Korea. She opt for a no-fly zone in northern or southern Syria, hoping to stop at that.
Clinton will try to sustain Washington’s tightened relationship with India, Vietnam and other Asian powers as well as ongoing moves towards democracy and free market economies in Africa and Latin America. She’ll try to avoid sinking more men and money into Afghanistan and will try to get (and keep) Pakistan turned around in a more helpful direction. Israel/Palestine will be low on her priorities–why tred on turf where others have repeatedly failed?–unless something breaks in the positive or negative direction.
Domestic issues will take priority, including fixes for Obamacare, increased infrastructure and education funding, reductions in student loan debt, criminal justice reform, corporate tax reform and appointment of at least one Supreme Court justice (unless Merrick Garland is confirmed in the lame duck session) and many other Federal judges at lower levels. She will support modestly increased defense funding and tax cuts for the middle class, funded by increases on higher incomes. She will tack slightly to the left to accommodate Bernie Sanders’ supporters, but not so far as to lose independents.
In other words, Hillary Clinton is likely to serve Barack Obama’s third term, correcting the relatively few mistakes she thinks he has made, slowing retrenchment and adapting his pragmatic non-doctrine foreign policy to the particular circumstances and events as they occur. It will take some time for the Republicans, or whatever succeeds them as the second major party, to figure out whether they are protectionist or free traders, anti-immigrant or not, interventionist or not.
Trump’s defeat will be momentous for the Republican party, but it will leave the country on more or less the same trajectory it has followed for the past 7.5 years. If she can keep it pointed in that direction for four more, we should be thankful.
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Good critique, but where’s the beef?
Hillary Clinton went after Donald Trump on national security issues yesterday, landing lots of body blows and a head shot or two as well. She said he was unqualified to be president, both substantively and temperamentally. Her fans are applauding loudly.
It is easy enough to slam a guy who likes (and gets endorsements from) President Putin and Chairman Kim Jong Un. He also advocates withdrawal from NATO, US government default on its debts, nuclear weapons for Japan and South Korea, a blockade on Muslims from entering the US, and Mexican payment for a wall on the border. Little of what he says makes sense. Much of it is dangerous. But what would Hillary Clinton do (or not) about the Islamic State (ISIS), the civil wars in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya, North Korea’s nuclear weapons and China’s challenges to freedom of navigation in the South China Sea?
She didn’t outline her own national security perspective. Her speech suggested little more than continuity with President Obama’s efforts:
We need to take out their strongholds in Iraq and Syria by intensifying the air campaign and stepping up our support for Arab and Kurdish forces on the ground. We need to keep pursuing diplomacy to end Syria’s civil war and close Iraq’s sectarian divide, because those conflicts are keeping ISIS alive. We need to lash up with our allies, and ensure our intelligence services are working hand-in-hand to dismantle the global network that supplies money, arms, propaganda and fighters to the terrorists. We need to win the battle in cyberspace.
I am no isolationist, but the fact is we’ve got more problems than our limited resources allow us to resolve. That’s an important part of the reason Barack Obama tried to get us out of Iraq and Afghanistan and refused to get involved in post-Qaddafi Libya. But withdrawal and abstention left vacuums that ISIS and the Taliban have filled. How would President Clinton bring our capabilities and resources into balance with the requirements? Which problems would she put at the top of the list, and which at the bottom?
President Obama succeeded in getting a decent nuclear deal with Iran, but Tehran continues its regional destabilization efforts in Yemen and Syria. North Korea continues to test nuclear weapons and, without success, ballistic missiles while China continues to build artificial islands. What would President Clinton do to counter them?
It is widely believed that Clinton is more hawkish than Obama, because she recommended the Libya intervention and voted for the Iraq war. But it is one thing to advise the president, or vote in the Senate. It is another to make your own decisions once you hold the levers of power. The admittedly stirring speech–I dislike Donald Trump’s fakery as much as the next liberal internationalist–did little to clarify Clinton’s own positions on the issues.
Of course there is time in what will be an excruciatingly long campaign. Campaigning is also different from advising and governing. Questioning your opponent’s basic qualifications seems a good enough place to start. But it is a cerebral exercise, not an emotional one. It depends on demonstrating incoherence.
That is not an adequate response to Trump. His talent is that he has tapped into a reservoir of emotions, including misogyny, Islamophobia, xenophobia and racism, that were out there and waiting to be exploited. Clinton tried but was less successful at tapping into a strikingly different reservoir: one that treasures pride in the liberal world order, confidence in American talents and optimism about the country’s political and economic future. Here’s hoping she finds the right way!
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Peace Picks May 23-27
- Economic Sanctions on Russia | Monday, May 23rd | 9:30-11:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | With the proliferation of new hybrid threats in the global economy, the United States and its transatlantic partners have increasingly used economic sanctions to make broad geopolitical and state-sponsored threats not financially viable. The design and approval of sanctions against globally recognized threats is in the hands of governments that must coordinate on the objective and scope of sanctions, while their implementation relies on the compliance of the private sector that must bear the burden of reduced trade. After a keynote speech on where the United States stand on economic sanctions on Russia, Ambassador Fried will take part in a high-level panel discussion on “US Sanctions Obligations.” Please join the Atlantic Council and Baker & McKenzie for an offsite conversation on Economic Sanctions on Russia, featuring the US State Department’s Coordinator for Sanctions Policy, Daniel Fried. Nicholas F. Coward, Baker & McKenzie Partner, and Caroline Vicini, Deputy Head of Delegation, Delegation of the European Union to the United States, will join the discussion. Anders Aslund, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, will introduce and moderate.
- Belarus in Transition | Monday, May 23rd | 2:00-3:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | With revolutionary changes in Ukraine, great power ambitions in Russia, and falling oil prices paired with sanctions, there are serious challenges to Belarus’ paternalistic model of governance. These challenges, however, may present an opportunity for Belarus to move towards a more modern political ideology and economy. Dr. Larissa G. Titarenko, Professor at Belarus State University, and Dr. Valery Yevarouski, Fulbright Research Scholar at the Kennan Institute, will discuss the current socio-economic situation in Belarus and potential models of transition.
- Challenges Facing Europe: A Conversation with British Ambassador Sir Kim Darroch | Wednesday, May 25th | 10:00-11:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Less than a month before the British referendum on EU membership, and as anti-refugee and anti-establishment narratives fuel forces of disintegration and nationalism across Europe, Sir Kim Darroch, British Ambassador to the United States, will address the geopolitical and economic issues facing Europe and explore a strategic transatlantic response. An experienced and innovative diplomat, Sir Kim became the British Ambassador to the United States in January 2016. Prior to that, he served as National Security Advisor to Prime Minister of the United Kingdom David Cameron. In this capacity, he led the National Security Council in dealing with the rise of ISIS, nuclear threats from Iran, and Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Sir Kim, who also served as Britain’s Permanent Representative to the European Union, is particularly well-versed on the Brussels-centric debates surrounding enlargement, integration, and economic recovery. Frederick Kempe, Atlantic Council President and CEO, will join the discussion.
- Making Sense of Pakistan’s Sectarian Landscape | Wednesday, May 25th | 10:30-12:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Pakistan’s diverse Islamic landscape features Sunni sects, such as the Deobandis, Barelvis, and Ahl-e-Hadith, as well as Shia ones that include Twelvers, Ismailis, and Khojas. While sectarian tensions in Pakistan are commonly seen through a Sunni/Shia lens, significant divides within the Sunni groups tend to receive less attention. Competition between Deobandis, Barelvis, and Ahl-e-Hadith is intense, and understanding this intra-Sunni competition is essential in order to comprehend not just Pakistan’s sectarian dynamics, but also the roots of extremism in Pakistan and how to counter it. This event will examine intra-Sunni divides in Pakistan, and it will more broadly consider how best to understand the current state of the Sunni/Shia divide. It will also discuss how Pakistan’s contemporary sectarian climate is affected by the Saudi-Iranian rivalry and other developments in global geopolitics. Speakers include Farhat Haq, Wilson Center Fellow, and Marvin Weinbaum, Director, Center for Pakistan Studies, Middle East Institute.
- Turkey’s Defense-Industrial Policy | Thursday, May 26th | 10:30-12:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join us for the latest event in the Atlantic Council’s Defense-Industrial Policy Series, featuring a discussion on Turkey’s defense-industrial policy with Dr. Ismail Demir, Turkish undersecretary for defense industries. The Defense-Industrial Policy Series is a platform for senior government executives in defense and aerospace to address the public policies that shape these industries’ markets. By engaging the perspective of government leaders about issues at the interface of defense ministries and industries, the series aims to cultivate a constituency for practical solutions to these problems.
- A Conversation on the Middle East with Congressman Adam Kinzinger | Thursday, May 26th | 11:45-1:00 | Hudson Institute and The Foreign Policy Initiative | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Join Hudson Institute and the Foreign Policy Initiative as we host Congressman Adam Kinzinger of Illinois for a discussion with journalist Josh Rogin of Bloomberg View. The focus of the discussion will be the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, including ISIS and the resulting refugee crisis, the U.S. exit strategy for Afghanistan, terrorist safe havens in North Africa, the Iran nuclear deal, and a way forward in Syria. As a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a congressional leader on national security and foreign policy, Congressman Kinzinger will share his perspective on these challenging issues and how America can lead in ensuring greater global stability and prosperity.
- China’s Role in a Changing Middle East | Thursday, May 26th | 12:00-1:00 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | China is engaged in active, high-profile diplomacy in the Middle East, ranging from presidential visits to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran to a mediation effort in the Syrian civil war earlier this year. Beijing’s One Belt, One Road initiative to connect major Eurasian economies through infrastructure, trade, and investment relies in part on stability across the oil-supplying states of the Middle East. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host Dr. Pan Guang (Chinese Association of Middle East Studies) for a discussion of the drivers and impacts of China’s increasingly complex role in the Middle East, the objectives Beijing and regional capitals are pursuing in their relations, and the implications for the United States. Paul Salem, MEI Vice President for Policy and Research, will moderate.
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Peace Picks April 18-22
- A Conversation on Jerusalem and the Future of the Peace Process with Daniel Seidemann | Monday, April 18th | 12:15-1:30 | Middle East Institute and Johns Hopkins SAIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Conflict Management Program of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) are pleased to host internationally renowned Jerusalem expert and activist Daniel Seidemann in a discussion with Al Arabiya TV’s Muna Shikaki about ongoing settlement activities in Jerusalem and challenges to an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. Seidemann has observed that Jerusalem is becoming “the central arena for Israeli-Palestinian skirmishing of such intensity that developments there jeopardize the very possibility of a two-state solution and threaten to undermine both local and regional stability.” In the absence of a political dialogue, Israel is extending physical barriers and discussing ideas to more thoroughly separate the communities, particularly in Jerusalem. In this period of growing crisis, what steps can advocates of a two-state solution – in the region and in the U.S. and Europe – take to preserve the prospect? Daniel Serwer (SAIS and MEI) will introduce the program.
- Beyond Migration: The Refugee Crisis in Europe and the Challenges of Immigrant Integration | Monday, April 18th | 3:30-5:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Despite decades of immigration, even the most multicultural countries in Europe are struggling with the scale of the current refugee crisis, and the challenge of integrating the newcomers. This crisis, one of Europe’s biggest of the past century, has the potential to alter the political fabric of the continent and undermine the foundation of post-WWII transnational institutions. The political and humanitarian consequences of the EU’s deal with Turkey have drawn much attention. But what about those refugees who have already made the trip and are now settling in Europe, if only temporarily? Looking back, what lessons can European governments learn from successes and failures in integrating earlier generations of immigrants? Join us for a discussion of the dilemmas of immigration control in Europe, as well as the longer-term issues of immigrant integration, identity, and belonging. Speakers include Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, James Hollifield, Public Policy Fellow at the Wilson Center, and Riva Kastoryano, Senior Research Fellow, Center for International Research, SciencesPo, Paris.
- High Stakes at the Gulf Summit: What President Obama Should Get from the GCC Meeting | Tuesday, April 19th | 2:00-3:30 | Center for Transatlantic Relations and Human Rights First | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On April 21 President Obama will attend the Gulf Co-operation Council Summit in Saudi Arabia, with a series of crises confronting the Gulf monarchies. Syria, Yemen and Iran will be key components of the discussions, as well how to prevent violent extremism. Join us for a panel discussion featuring regional specialists on what Obama should achieve in the GCC meeting, and why it matters so much. Introductory remarks will be made by Ambassador Andras Simonyi, Managing Director, CTR. Speakers include Hala Aldosari, Visiting Scholar, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, Brian Dooley, Director, Human Rights Defenders, Human Rights First, and Matar Ebrahim Matar, former member of the Bahraini Parliament. Mihai Patru, Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations, will moderate.
- The Idea of Culture and Civilization in Contemporary Turkish Politics: Public Debate, Policy and Foreign Relations | Wednesday, April 20th | 9:30-2:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Join us for a conference that explores new ideas among Islamist and secular intellectuals in contemporary Turkey and inquire whether novel understandings exist about the relationship between Islam and modernity, East and West, and the position of Turkey itself within them. The conference will also investigate the impact of these understandings on public debate domestically in Turkey and on its foreign policy, specifically its relations with the United States and Europe, Russia, and the Middle East. This event consists of three panels. Speakers and panels may be found here.
- The Value of Values: Reconsidering the Role of Human Rights in U.S.-China Relations | Wednesday, April 20th | 2:30-4:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Issues of ideology, values, and human rights are again moving to the top of the United States’ China agenda and underlie many frictions in U.S.-China relations. The competing virtue narratives and disparate systems of the United States and China fuel suspicions in the military, economic, and global governance spheres. Please join us for an examination of values, rights, and ideals in the U.S.-China relationship and in the evolution of regional and world orders. Speakers include J. Stapleton Roy, Founding Director and Distinguished Scholar at the Wilson Center, Sharon Hom, Executive Director, Human Rights in China, Zheng Wang, Global Fellow, and Robert Daly, Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States.
- Western Defense Reassurances to Gulf Arab After the Iran Deal: Are We on the Same Page? | Thursday, April 21st | 10:00-11:30 | International Institute for Strategic Studies | REGISTER TO ATTEND | You are invited to an IISS discussion meeting on Thursday, April 21st, on Western defense reassurances to Gulf Arabs after the Iran deal. Panelists include Ellen Laipson, Distinguished Fellow and President Emeritus of the Stimson Center, Michael Eisenstadt, director of The Washington Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program, Caroline Hurndall, Head of the Middle East Team at the British Embassy, and Bilal Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic Council. The panel will discuss whether post-Iran deal arms sales to Gulf Cooperation Council countries meet the goal of reassurance, whether arms sales from different NATO counties are complementary or competitive, and how the sales are affecting the geopolitics of the region. Following the hour-long panel discussion, there will be a 30-minute Q&A session with the audience. The full event will be on the record and webcast live on the IISS website.
- Protecting Religious Minorities | Thursday, April 21st | 1:30-3:00 | United States Institute for Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Propelled by the atrocities against religious minorities in several Muslim-majority countries in recent years, particularly at the hands of the Islamic State group, senior religious leaders meeting in Morocco in January issued the Marrakesh Declaration to prevent such violence in the future. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace and its co-hosts on April 21 as renowned Islamic legal scholar Sheikh Abdullah bin Bayyah, who designed the legal framework for the declaration and convened the Morocco meeting, discusses the next steps in ensuring the terms of this call to action can be implemented. The violence wrought by violent extremists creates an imperative for people in the Muslim world across sectarian, ethnic, and national lines to affirm positive teachings within the tradition, address historical points of disagreement and transform the underlying causes of violent extremism into peaceful change.The Marrakesh Declaration courageously acknowledges the oppression and violence against religious minorities within some predominantly Muslim countries. Inspired by the Charter of Medina, which was established in the time of the Prophet Muhammad to guarantee religious freedoms, the declaration presents a way to apply a religious legal and theological framework to uphold human rights. But much of the success of the Marrakesh Declaration will depend on how it is implemented. In this discussion co-hosted by the Network for Religious and Traditional Peacemakers and Sheikh bin Bayyah’s Forum for Promoting Peace in Muslim Societies, he will address the urgency of the Marrakesh Declaration in light of current events. He also will outline plans to work with individuals and organizations to use the declaration as a source of authority and accountability to advance the goals of this call to action.
- A Stronger UN for a Peaceful World—Conversation with Ambassador Natalia Gherman | Thursday, April 21st | 4:00-5:00 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Women in Public Service Projectand the Kennan Instituteinvite you to a discussion with Ambassador Natalia Gherman, candidate for United Nation Secretary General. Amb. Gherman will outline her unique perspective and goals for new UN leadership, before taking audience questions. Ambassador Natalia Gherman has previously served as acting Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of the Republic of Moldova. As a Chief Negotiator, she led Moldova towards the Association Agreement, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, and visa liberalization regime with the EU. She served as Ambassador to Austria and Permanent Representative to the UN Agencies in Vienna and the OSCE, and Ambassador to Sweden, Finland, and Norway.
- The Changing Role of Egypt’s Private Sector | Friday, April 22nd | 9:00-10:30 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a discussion about the evolving role of Egypt’s private sector and the emergence of new business models to meet the demands of sustainable development. Egyptian business leaders Mohamed El-Kalla (Cairo for Investment and Development), Dina Sherif (The Center for Entrepreneurship, AUC) and Tarek Tawfik (Federation of Egyptian Industries) will be joined by American attorney and investment adviser Samar Ali (Bone McAllester Norton PLLC) for an examination of the changing nature of private enterprise in Egypt. Egypt’s new generation of entrepreneurs and corporate leaders are increasingly prioritizing sustainable development, accountability, and responsible business practices as key tools for economic growth. The panel will discuss the drivers of change, the challenges that private business faces from the state, and how the U.S. government and business community can encourage the new trend. Randa Fahmy will moderate the discussion.
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Peace Picks March 21-25
- New Voices, New Visions: The Impact of the Arts in Saudi Arabia | Tuesday, March 22nd | 12:00-1:30 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) in partnership with Art Jameel is pleased to host internationally acclaimed Saudi artist Ahmed Mater for a discussion about the impact of his art in presenting new perspectives of Saudi Arabia and its role in shaping fresh narratives reflecting the growing aspirations of the Kingdom’s youth. He will be joined in conversation by scholar Kristin Diwan, an expert on youth activism in the Gulf, and British artist Stephen Stapleton, director of the arts organization Culturunners, who founded the Saudi arts collective, Edge of Arabia, with Mater in 2003. The conversation will be moderated by MEI Senior Vice President Kate Seelye.
- Confronting Far-Right Extremism in Europe | Tuesday, March 22nd | 4:00-5:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | A wave of far-right populism is sweeping across Europe. Once on the fringes of politics, extremist parties are capitalizing on the refugee crisis and the financial meltdown of 2008 to gain at the polls. The re-emergence of anti-immigrant and isolationist groups and parties in Europe erodes the European Union’s ability to coordinate policies for solving Europe’s crises. Indeed, their growing popularity undermines the basic tenets of the European project. Taking advantage of Europe’s far-right turn, Russia has been aiding its far-right allies, which in turn publicly support Putin’s geopolitical interests and foreign policy agenda. Western policymakers have been slow to recognize the problem and to effectively respond. At a time when Europe faces some of its greatest challenges, we urgently need strategy-driven policies to strengthen the transatlantic relationship. Dr. Frances Burwell, Vice President of the Atlantic Council’s European Union and Special Initiative department, will offer welcome remarks. Susan Corke, Director of the Antisemitism and Extremism department at Human Rights First, Marlene Laurelle, Professor at George Washington University, and Alina Polyakova, Deputy Director of the Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, will offer their thoughts. Christian Caryl, Foreign Policy Magazine Editor, will moderate.
- The Changing Landscape of Environmental Public Participation and Protest in China | Wednesday, March 23rd | 9:00-10:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | As the ‘war’ on pollution continues in China, the Chinese public and environmental NGOs have been taking advantage of more formal and informal channels to voice their concern about worsening air, water and soil quality. At this March 23rd CEF meeting, speakers will discuss China’s evolving space for public participation vis-a-vis environmental problems. Wu Fengshi (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) will speak about the changing nature of public contention in China exemplified by recent large-scale anti-development and environmental protests. Drawing on the second edition of her highly acclaimed book—China’s Environmental Challenges—Judith Shapiro (American University) will highlight other ways that citizens and NGOs are responding to the intense pollution enveloping their country.
- Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Conflict and Cooperation | Wednesday, March 23rd | 12:00-1:30 | Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Having historically been the only oil producer with sufficient spare capacity to shape the world economy, Saudi Arabia has held a critical position in 21st century geopolitics. Despite the increasingly robust role Saudi Arabia has been playing more recently on the regional scene, the kingdom has faced internal and external challenges that have kept it from fulfilling its vast potential. In Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Conflict and Cooperation, Gulf expert Neil Partrick, and other regional analysts, address the kingdom’s relations in the Middle East and wider Islamic world, and its engagement with established and emergent global powers. AGSIW is pleased to host a discussion on Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Conflict and Cooperation with Neil Partrick and a contributor to the book, Mark N. Katz, who will look at Russian relations with Saudi Arabia. They will be joined by Fahad Nazer, who will discuss the work and Saudi foreign policy, and AGSIW Senior Resident Scholar Hussein Ibish, who will moderate the panel.
- The emerging China-Russia axis: The return of geopolitics? | Thursday, March 24th | 9:00-11:00 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Over the past decade, Russia and China have come into closer alignment and their bilateral collaboration has grown. At the same time, Beijing and Moscow have each taken steps to alter the status quo in their respective peripheries (e.g. Russia in Ukraine and China in maritime East Asia). Warmer Sino-Russo relations elicit the question of whether the closer alignment of these two neighbors is somehow changing international politics to the disadvantage of the United States and its friends in Europe and Asia. On March 24, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will hold a public forum that brings together experts from Japan and the United States to examine how recent actions by China and Russia have affected the global order. Additionally, panelists will analyze whether new geopolitical rivalries have returned both between and within the East and the West. After the panel discussion, the speakers will take audience questions. Panelists include Akihiro Iwashita, Professor at Hokkaido University, Thomas Wright, Director of the Project on International Order and Strategy, Chisako T. Masuo, Associate Professor at Kyushu University, and David Gordon, Senior Advisor of the Eurasia Group. Richard C. Bush III, Director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies, will moderate.
- A Conversation with President of Kosovo H.E. Atifete Jahjaga | Wednesday, March 23rd | 4:00-5:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Seventeen years ago, NATO intervened in then-Yugoslavia in the mission known as Operation Allied Force. It was almost ten years later, in 2008, when Kosovo declared independence. Today, the country has made progress in its European integration, but ensuring regional security and political stability have remained significant challenges. Though Montenegro recently received an invitation to join the NATO Alliance, joining Albania and Croatia, it is unlikely that other Balkan countries will soon be brought into the NATO fold. Against the backdrop of a serious migration crisis and continuing uncertainty from Europe’s East, deep divisions threaten the stability of the region and endanger its collective security. As President of the Republic of Kosovo, H.E. Atifete Jahjaga has been a vocal proponent of the path for Kosovo toward membership in the EU and other institutions. In her final visit to Washington before concluding her mandate, President Jahjaga will provide an outlook on the progress Kosovo has made in the years since NATO’s intervention, as well as ways to address the contemporary security challenges faced by Kosovo and the wider region.
- Report Launch: Ilya Yashin on Ramzn Kadyrov | Thursday, March 24th | 12:00-1:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The harassment and sanctioned murder of opposition voices are no longer the exception in Russia; rather, they are part and parcel of President Vladimir Putin’s strategic intent to suppress those who challenge his government. Ramzan Kadyrov, Mr. Putin’s close ally and leader of Chechnya, is widely believed to be responsible for orchestrating the murder of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov in February 2015. In recent months, Kadyrov and his supporters have systematically harassed and threatened Russian opposition politicians who bravely speak out against Putin’s regime. In his revealing report, A Threat to National Security, Ilya Yashin details the extent of Kadyrov’s criminal activities and unrestrained corruption. Kadyrov now exercises complete control over Chechnya with a private army of thirty thousand loyal only to him. Kadyrov’s increasingly brazen actions signal that the Kremlin may not have complete control over the Chechen leader.
- Running an Independent Russian Media Outlet | Friday, March 25th | 10:00-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since its launch in October 2014, the independent, Riga-based media outlet Meduza has reached an audience of 4 million unique visitors per month, 70% of whom live in Russia. How does Meduza ensure comprehensive coverage of Russian news while being based outside the country? How have the Russian establishment and official media responded to Meduza’s rise? Publisher and journalist Ilya Krasilshchik shares the story of Meduza’s challenges and success. Ekaterina Krongauz, journalist and editor of Meduza, will also speak.
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