Tag: China

Zimbabwe: peaceful transition?

One more interesting session at the Achebe Colloquium today at Brown.  The original subtitle was “Prospects for a Stable Democracy or Dictatorship.”  Robert Rotberg proposed the refocus to peaceful transition, which seems to me right.  One way or another the Mugabe dictatorship is finished.

Alex Vines, Chatham House:  The economy is improved (inflation down), but the political situation is highly uncertain. The peace agreement of 2008 has run its course.  Any election by 2013 will be a tight contest. Mugabe, now 89, likely to stand again (!).  SADC (the Southern African Development Community) is underperforming economically, which is one reason South Africa is engaging on Zimbabwe.  SADC election observers are a good idea.

Blair Rutherford, Carleton University: Who opposes democratic state?  “Those with horns are hard to hide behind grass”:  security forces, diamond and land tycoons, dominant culture of national politics (“politics is war”).  These forces will continue to shape the results.

John Campbell, Council on Foreign Relations:  Elections in Zimbabwe will likely occur in the first half of 2012, followed by bloodletting.  What does the U.S. do to avoid this?  American leverage is weak, maybe nonexistent.  Zimbabwe is a marginal issue in Washington.  Zimbabwe does however impinge on South Africa, where demands for expropriation of white-owned land are growing.  Washington should be engaging with South Africa, SADC and China.  American NGOs and U.S. government should object to Mugabe’s exclusion of international election observers.  USG should commit to holding individuals perpetrating electoral violence accountable.  This would be a policy of skim milk:  words and symbols, no sticks and stones.

Robert Rotberg, Harvard:  The dictatorship will not continue in its current form.  We need a strengthened dialogue and accountability, as suggested by Campbell.  What is happening that suggests a peaceful transition is possible?  Eighty-ninety per cent of the country supports MDC (Movement for Democratic Change), which has serious talent able to run a democracy.  ZANU-PF (Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, Mugabe’s political party) loses in anything like a fair election.   The country has diamonds and infrastructure, even if it has lost two-thirds of its GDP per capita.  Still it has the best-educated population in Africa.  SADC is more active, Mugabe is aging and ill, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is interested.  But Mugabe is still alive and killing his opposition,  corruption is rife, diamonds make it possible, the Chinese help ZANU-PF, media are government controlled, there is no constitution, ZANU-PF will is experienced and accomplished at rigging  elections (especially the count).  Net assessment:  at best mildly hopeful, until SADC takes a firmer stand.

Chitsaka Chipaziwa, Zimbabwe ambassador to the UN:  No-show.  No surprise.

Vivian Nkechinyere Enomoh, Nigerian Independent Electoral Commission:  Need truly independent electoral commission, fully funded by the international community.

Emeka Anyaoku, Former Secretary General The Commonwealth:  Speaking from the floor, he underlined the historical role of Mugabe, the centrality of the land issue and the resulting support for Mugabe both inside Zimbabwe and in the rest of Africa.  It is not clear that he will lose the election.  Chinua Achebe concurred in that view.

Bottom line:  Prospects for free and fair elections and peaceful transition are uncertain.  It is up to AU, SADC and the Chinese to counter ZANU-PF securicrats and ensure it happens.

 

 

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More China in Africa: collaboration or colonialism?

There was a second session on Africa at the Achebe Colloquium this morning.  Here is my effort to capture main points.

Tijan Sallah, World Bank:  Africa is doing well economically, because of Chinese Brazilian trade and investment and because of improved policies within Africa.

Richard Dowden, Royal African Society:  China has been good for Africa economically.  Western companies moved back in to compete and to subcontract to the Chinese.  Africa has been growing ever since The Economist declared the continent hopeless.   China has no mission to change Africa.  Africans can play off Chinese against the West, freeing Africa from colonial legacy.  Problems for the Chinese:  political role at the UN, lack of employment for Africans in Chinese projects, illegal immigration of Chinese to Africa, Chinese purchases of land and indiscriminate arms trading.

Mark Wells, Human Rights Watch:  In Zambia, Chinese are good investors but bad employers.  They have purchased and revived copper mines, but conditions of employment (health and safety standards, hours, pay) are deplorable.  Result is many strikes and some improvements.  Effective regulation is lacking.  It is the African governments that need to protect worker rights.  When there is enforcement, the Chinese respond appropriately.

Muna B. Ndulo, Cornell:  Chinese have no colonial history in Africa and supported liberation struggles.  Africa has benefited from higher commodity prices and Chinese trade and investment.  The Chinese are doing what others do.  The issue is how Africa can avoid squandering the benefits.  In Zambia, regulation is weak not because of the Chinese but because of the period of nationalization of the mines.  The Zambians now have to rebuild capacity to regulate.  Africa needs improved governance.

Brent Huffman, Northwestern: His documentary film showed the Chinese in Senegal enterprising and successful but preferring to spend time within their own community and importing many needs from China.  Ordinary Senegalese are unhappy with cheap, low quality Chinese goods, but official Senegal welcomes the Chinese with open arms.

Tony Gambino, former USAID mission director, Democratic Republic of Congo:  Collaboration, yes, but for whom and for what?  China came into DRC in a big way after 2006.  Focus is on commercial benefit (metals) with tied loans for social or infrastructure projects, repaid by profits from commercial activity.  Unlike Western companies, Chinese build infrastructure far from their mining interests.  DRC presidency benefits from the Chinese activity, contravening World Bank-sponsored mining code.  But in the end the Chinese have had to accept internationally-imposed requirements.

Xiaohon He, Quinnipiac University:  China’s rural entrepreneurs are the real engine of reducing poverty in China.  Unlike the Western model, political development is coming after economic development.  Now China is running into labor and environmental issues, as well as criticism of its currency practices.  Chinese are being forced to move abroad prematurely, with bad labor and environmental practices.  But the Chinese model may be more appropriate for Africa than the Western model.

Joseph E. Ahaneku, Nnamdi Azikiwe University:  China is providing a lot of education and cultural aid.  Confucius institutes are successful.  Chinese are open to a two-way street, including teaching of Ibo in China.  Africa should embrace Chinese and propagate African culture in China.

Bottom line:  Chinese economic activity in Africa looks positive from the African perspective, even if it raises issues because of the weakness of African states.  The right response is to strengthen those states so that they can deal with the Chinese more effectively (but that conclusion is more mine than that of any of the panelists).

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China and the U.S. in Africa

I’m at the Chinua Achebe Colloquium on Africa at Brown this weekend.  I thought this session on “China and the United States in Africa:  Cooperation or Confrontation” would be of particular interest:

  • Robert Rotberg, Harvard:  Chinese goods and traders are ubiquitous in Africa, Chinese growth is Africa’s great hope but Chinese human rights record in Africa is appalling.  China’s focus is access to resources:  trying to convince Khartoum and Juba to settle pipeline issues (which is a good thing), helping with the Zimbabwe crackdown on protests.  Chinese and Americans in Africa have different agendas and will have to find a mutual accommodation.
  • Walter Carrington, former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria:  China offers trade and aid without onerous Western conditions.  But United States also is there for its own interests, and it was indifferent to moral considerations throughout the Cold War.  U.S. business would gladly see Washington behave the way Beijing does.  Africom assures access to African oil supplies.  We should avoid competition with China, which behaves like the capitalists we hoped they would one day become.
  • James Hentz, VMI:  Strategic framework is important:  either realist, in which China challenges the U.S. (power transition model) and tries to deny U.S. resources, especially oil, metals; or liberal, in which growing trade and commerce is a good thing, Chinese construction of infrastructure benefits other powers as well.  China and U.S. both have huge stakes in stability in Africa, but China does not like American advocacy of democracy.  Chinese will want good governance and transparency in Africa, but not American-style democracy.
  • Scott D. Taylor, Georgetown:  U.S. and China so far moving along parallel tracks.   How do Africans view the two?  China viewed favorably in most countries.  Even in Zambia, China has traction.  Views of China are approaching the highly positive levels of views of the U.S., which are slipping because of Africom, hunt for Lord’s Resistance Army, use of drones in Somalia, reduction of PEPFAR funding, toppling of Qaddafi.  Anti-U.S. sentiment is growing, to the benefit of the Chinese.
  • Omer Ismail, Enough!  China and the U.S. compete for resources and markets.  The approaches are different:  China leads with the state, the U.S. with the market.  China has now passed the U.S. in trade with Africa, in corporate deals with Africa, in percentage of oil imports from Africa, supplying weapons to all sides.  Possible areas for cooperation:  agriculture, security and diplomacy, and environment.  What is in it for the people of Africa?  That is what U.S. and China should focus on.  There is a real possibility for cooperation. 
  • Deborah Brautigan, American University:  China represents a big challenge that echoes for Americans the Cold War and Japanese economic competition.  It is a developing country with low labor and environmental standards.  Chinese foreign policy emphasizes mutual benefit and non-interference.  But China is changing rapidly, we often exaggerate Chinese activities in Africa and have little understanding what they are actually doing.  Chinese credit practices can be good because they guarantee that the Chinese get what they pay for, which is better than much Western foreign assistance has done.

Overall message:  some competition is inevitable, but the Chinese role in Africa is already more positive that many think (finance, infrastructure) and more like U.S. private sector behavior than we like to admit.  There is a negative side:  supporting unworthy rulers, use of veto at the UN, Chinese racial attitudes, and company exploitation of diamonds in Zimbabwe.  But Chinese are evolving in a direction that may allow more cooperation on Africa in the UN and in an Africa that is increasingly democratic and resistant to exploitation.

Chinua Achebe at his Brown Colloquium, December 4, 2011
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Getting ready for post-Assad Syria

While my enthusiasm for nonviolent revolution in Syria has not waned, some of the best pieces of the past week have focused on the risks involved.

International Crisis Group (ICG) weighed in with an analysis of where things might go wrong:

  • the fate of the Alawite community;
  • the connection between Syria and Lebanon;
  • the nature and implications of heightened international
    involvement;
  • the long-term impact of the protest movement’s growing
    militarisation; and
  • the legacy of creeping social, economic and institutional
    decay.

Patrick Seale offered a more generic warning of civil war and a far-fetched (or is it imaginative?) proposal for BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) mediation to avoid it (with thanks to Carne Ross for tweeting it).

Meanwhile, back at the Arab League they imposed in principle serious sanctions on Syria, including a ban on transactions with its central bank as well as travel by regime big shots and a halt to Arab development projects in Syria.  As usual, some of the important stuff is not mentioned.  Commercial air transportation with Syria will continue, assets in the Gulf have not been frozen, and neighbors Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan have not committed to complying with the sanctions, which will probably be implemented slowly and incompletely.  Even if all were willing, the regime would find ways of taking advantage of sanctions to enrich its least savory characters.

One other thing is also certain:  the longer it takes to get rid of Assad, the more difficult the transition to a democratic regime will be.  No one can pretend that the Syrian National Council (SNC) is yet ready to govern, even if Libya and France have recognized it (the latter as a partner for dialogue and not a government).  It needs to hasten its preparations, which so far seem rudimentary.  The SNC (and other elements of the opposition?) will reportedly meet in Cairo within a week to elaborate its vision and plans for the transition.  The Syrians could do worse than take that ICG list of issues and work on serious plans to resolve them.

PS:  The UN Human Rights Commission “Report of the independent international commission of inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic,” published this morning, makes grim reading. Here are a couple of randomly chosen paragraphs:

48. Several defectors witnessed the killing of their comrades who refused to execute orders to fire at civilians. A number of conscripts were allegedly killed by security forces on 25 April in Dar’a during a large-scale military operation. The soldiers in the first row were given orders to aim directly at residential areas, but chose to fire in the air to avoid civilian casualties. Security forces posted behind shot them for refusing orders, thus killing dozens of conscripts.
49. Civilians bore the brunt of the violence as cities were blockaded and curfews imposed. The commission heard many testimonies describing how those who ventured outside their homes were shot by snipers. Many of the reported cases occurred in Dar’a, Jisr Al Shughour and Homs. A lawyer told how security forces took positions in old Dar’a during the operation in April. Snipers were deployed on the hospital rooftop and other buildings. “They targeted anyone who moved”, he said. Two of his cousins were killed on the street by snipers.

 

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Next week’s peace picks

I am not one for 2.5 day events, but for those who can sit still that long and pay the admission fee the 7th International Lessons Learned Conference November 30-December 2 might be a good place to find your muse.  For others, here are the events this week in DC I might consider attending (were I not working feverishly to finish writing my own book).  As always, writeups of these events will be considered for posting on www.peacefare.net (just let me know in advance if you are planning to do one):
1. Tunisia: From Dictatorship to Democratic Era
Hosted By: SAIS, Conflict Management Program and American Tunisian Association
November 29, 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM
Location: Room 500, The Bernstein-Offit Building
Summary: Salah Bourjini, former division chief of the U.N. Development Program, will discuss this topic. A reception will follow at 6 p.m. For more information and to RSVP, contact itlong@jhu.edu.
2.  Foreign Policy and the 2012 Elections

Tuesday, November 29th

6:00 – 7:00 PM
Registration and Networking Reception

7:00 – 8:00 PM
Panel Discussion and Q&A

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1779 Massachusetts Avenue Northwest

         Speakers:        Steve Hayes
         Speakers:        The Weekly Standard
         Speakers:        Josh Rogin
         Speakers:        Foreign Policy

        Moderator:       Elise Stefanik
        Moderator:       Foreign Policy Initiative

To RSVP, please click here.
3.  America’s Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century

Michael D. Swaine, David Lampton, Geoff Dyer Wednesday, November 30, 2011 – Washington, D.C.
9:00 AM – 10:30 AM EST

Register to attend

As the world’s predominant political, economic, and military force, the United States faces a significant challenge in responding to China’s rising power and influence, especially in Asia. This challenge will require more effective U.S. policies and a reassessment of America’s fundamental strategic assumptions and relationships.

Carnegie’s Michael Swaine will discuss his new book America’s Challenge. He will be joined by David M. Lampton of Johns Hopkins University, who will provide comments. Geoff Dyer of the Financial Times will moderate.
4.  Aiding Without Abetting: Making Civilian Assistance to Pakistan Work for Both Sides
November 30, 2011 // 11:00am — 12:30pm
There will be a live webcast of this event.
More than two years after President Obama signed the Kerry-Lugar-Berman (KLB) Act into law, the U.S. civilian assistance program to Pakistan is under fire in both countries. Many are prepared to deem it a failure. What can be done to salvage KLB? This event marks the release of a major new report on U.S. civilian assistance, the culmination of the year-long deliberations of a Wilson Center working group convened to reevaluate the aid program.
Speakers:
Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO, Woodrow Wilson Center
Jonah Blank, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Polly Nayak, Chair, Woodrow Wilson Center Working Group on Pakistan
Robert M. Hathaway, Asia Program Director, Woodrow Wilson Center
Others to be announced
Location:
6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center
5.  Dan Drezner Book Talk
11:00 am – noon, Thursday, December 1, Abramson Family Founders Room, SIS Building, American University

Daniel W. Drezner will be speaking on his new book from Princeton University Press, called Theories of International Politics and Zombies. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a senior editor at The National Interest. Prior to Fletcher, he taught at the University of Chicago and the University of Colorado at Boulder. Drezner has received fellowships from the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the Council on Foreign Relations, and Harvard University. He has previously held positions with Civic Education Project, the RAND Corporation, and the Treasury Department.

Host:
School of International Service
Contact:
Catherine Favier Kelly
Send email to Catherine Favier KellySend email to Catherine Favier Kelly
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This week’s “peace picks”

A few recommended events for those interested in the world beyond our borders:
1.  The National Conversation–Afghanistan:  Is There A Regional Endgame? Woodrow Wilson Center, November 1, 12 — 2pm: event full but webcast
  • Deputy Special Representative, Department of State
  • Former U.S. Secretary of State
  • Public Policy Scholar
    “International Reporting Project Journalist-in-Residence” at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies
  • USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Scholar
  • Journalist and Author of seven books, most recently “Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World”
  • Professor of International Politics, Tufts University
2.  China’s Role in Africa:  Implications, 419 Dirksen, November 1, 2:15 pm

U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations

SUBCOMMITTEE ON AFRICAN AFFAIRS

The Honorable David Shinn
Adjunct Professor
George Washington University
Washington, DC
Dr. Deborah Brautigam
Senior Research Fellow
International Food Policy Research Institute
Washington, DC
Mr. Stephen Hayes
President and CEO
The Corporate Council on Africa
Washington, DC
3.  “How to End the Stalemate in Somalia,” SAIS, 500 Bernstein-Offitt, November 1, 4:30-6 pm

J. Peter Pham, director of the Michael S. Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council, and Bronwyn Bruton, deputy director of the Ansari Africa Center. For more information, contact itolber1@jhu.edu or 202.663.5676.

4.  U.S. Policy Toward Zimbabwe, 2200 Rayburn, November 2, 3 pm

Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, and Human Rights

Panel I
The Honorable Johnnie Carson
Assistant Secretary of State
Bureau of African Affairs
U.S. Department of StateMs. Sharon Cromer
Senior Deputy Assistant Administrator
Bureau for Africa
U.S. Agency for International Development
Panel II
Mr. Mark Schneider
Senior Vice President
International Crisis GroupMr. Paul Fagan
Regional Director for Africa
International Republican InstituteMr. Dewa Mavhinga
Regional Coordinator
Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition
5.  The State of U.S.-Pakistan Relations, USIP, November 3, 2-3:30 pm (also webcast)
  • Ambassador Riaz Muhammad Khan, panelist
    former Foreign Secretary, Islamic Republic of Pakistan
    Author, Afghanistan and Pakistan: Conflict, Extremism and Resistance to Modernity
  • Pamela Constable, panelist
    Staff Writer, The Washington Post
    Author, Playing with Fire: Pakistan at War with Itself
  • Zahid Hussain, panelist
    2011-2012 Pakistan Scholar, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
    Author, The Scorpion’s Tail: The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan – and How it Threatens America
  • Andrew Wilder, moderator
    Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Programs
    United States Institute of Peace

 

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