Tag: Counterterrorism
Peace Picks|February 3-9
- Making the Case for Sustained U.S. Engagement in a Transitioning Afghanistan| February 5, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM | CSIS | Register Here
In the United States, there is a sense of “Afghanistan fatigue.” While there are certainly valid criticisms that can be levied against U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, a significant amount of social, economic, political, and public health progress has resulted from our engagement and Afghans’ own hard work and commitment.
The under-five mortality and maternal mortality rates have nearly halved since 2000. Virtually no one in Afghanistan had electricity in 2000, but by 2016, nearly 85 percent of the population did. Women’s education was practically non-existent under Taliban rule, but 3.5 million Afghan women are now enrolled in school. 170 radio stations, hundreds of print media outlets, and dozens of TV stations have opened since 2001 as free media, cell phones, television, and the internet have transformed Afghan society. GDP per capita has tripled since 2001, and official development assistance (ODA) as a percentage of central government expenditure decreased from 206 percent in 2006 to 59 percent in 2015. The Afghan National Army is now the primary group fighting the Taliban, and U.S. troop presence has dropped from 110,000 in 2011 to the current plan of 8,600. But Afghanistan’s political progress and social gains are at risk of collapse if the United States chooses to completely disengage from the country. Given the mix of gains and disappointments, how do we establish the correct framework for U.S. engagement with a transitioning Afghanistan in 2020 and beyond?
Speakers:
Representative Michael Waltz: U.S. Representative for Florida’s 6th Congressional District
Rina Amiri: Senior Fellow, NYU Center for Global Affairs and Steering Committee Member, Alliance in Support of the Afghan People (ASAP)
Peter Bergen: Vice President of Global Studies and Fellows, New America
Earl Gast: Executive Vice President for Programs, Creative Associates International and Former Afghanistan Mission Director, USAID
- A Women’s Place: US Counterterrorism Since 9/11 Policy Roundtable| February 5, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM | Stimson Center | Register Here
We will be joined by Dr. Joana Cook, author of the new book “A Woman’s Place: US Counterterrorism Since 9/11,” Seamus Hughes of the George Washington University Program on Extremism, and Lauren Protentis, communications and national security expert.
- United States Strategy for Central Asia: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity| February 5, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The Heritage Foundation will host a moderated discussion to launch the United States’ new Strategy for Central Asia (2019-2025). Deputy Assistant to the President Lisa Curtis will join Ambassador Alice Wells and Acting Assistant Administrator Gloria Steele for a public address and discussion on the administration’s priorities and future prospects for U.S. engagement in Central Asia. Remarks will outline how the United States will support the five countries’ efforts to improve regional security, bolster economic connectivity, and ensure sovereignty and independence across the region.
Speakers:
Lisa Curtis: Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for South and Central Asia, National Security Council
Ambassador Alice: Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, Department of State
Gloria Steele: Acting Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Asia, United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Luke Coffey: Director, Douglas & Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy
- Accountability in Syria: Achieving Transitional Justice in A Postconflict Society| February 5, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Join us for a book discussion on the challenges of achieving accountability and justice in postconflict Syria. Gross violations of International Humanitarian Law and International Human Rights Laws have been committed in Syria. After a full cessation of violence, launching transitional justice processes will signal to the victims that those responsible for committing these crimes will be brought to reparation and that the time of impunity is over. This book discusses the available options of justice and how accountability will be achieved through international systems and a new hybrid court system.
Speakers:
Mai El-Sadany: Legal and Judicial Director, The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy
Mohammad Alaa Ghanem: Syrian Academic and Pro-democracy Campaigner
Radwan Ziadeh: Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
- Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East| February 6, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 12:45 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The civil wars racking the Middle East have torn
the political, social and economic fabric of Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya
and Yemen. MEI has released a pathbreaking book, Escaping the Conflict Trap:
Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East, to deal with these difficult but
important issues. The book was co-edited by MEI President Paul Salem and MEI
Senior Fellow Ross Harrison, and includes contributions from former senior
diplomats, MEI experts and academics.
This half-day
conference will address the insights and findings from this important book.
Contributing authors will share their views about the individual civil wars, as
well as their regional and global geopolitical backdrop.
Speakers:
Nadia Bilbassy: Senior Correspondent, Al-Arabiya TV and MBC TV
Chester Crocker: Former Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of African Affairs; James R. Schlesinger Professor of the Practice of Strategic Studies
Ambassador (ret.) Robert Ford: Senior Fellow, MEI; Former US Ambassador to Syria
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald Feierstein: Senior Vice President, MEI; Former US Ambassador to Yemen
Ross Harrison: Senior Fellow, MEI
Anne Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
Paul Salem: President, MEI
Dan Serwer: Non-resident scholar, MEI; director, Conflict Management and American Foreign Policy program, John Hopkins SAIS
Randa Slim: Senior Fellow and Director, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
Marvin Weinbaum: Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
Jonathan Winer: Non-resident scholar, MEI
- Is War Over| February 6, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | CATO Institute | Register Here
A scholarly debate has emerged over trends in global conflict and the future of warfare. Is the international system becoming more peaceful, or is it just as violent and war-prone as it always has been? Is great-power war a thing of the past, or has it merely been dormant under changing technological and institutional conditions? Crafting an appropriate U.S. foreign policy is dependent on accurately measuring the state of war and peace in the world. Please join us for a discussion of these vital issues.
Speakers:
Paul Poast: Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago
John Mueller: Political Scientist, Ohio State University; Senior Fellow, CATO Institute
Christopher Fettweis: Professor of Political Science, Tulane University
Bethany Lacine: Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester
John Glaser: Director of Foreign Policy Studies, CATO Institute
- NATO and the New Decade: Assessing the Transatlantic Alliance| February 7, 2020 | 11:45 AM – 1:00 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Last year, NATO marked the 70th anniversary of the founding of the alliance. At the start of the new decade, a united, flexible, and future-minded NATO is needed more than ever.
Join Hudson Institute for a discussion with NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana. Mr. Geoana has served as the minister of foreign affairs of Romania, the president of the Romanian Senate, and as ambassador of Romania to the United States. He has held his current role since July 2019.
Calls for a reexamination of NATO’s relevance and effectiveness come amidst a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. President Trump has been a vocal proponent of burden sharing to ensure the organization’s lasting success. Speaking in December at the NATO Leaders Meeting, he said the alliance had taken positive steps and “increased the numbers that other countries are paying … by $130 billion.”
How is NATO delivering on burden sharing and what impact does this have on the alliance’s ability to carry out its missions and operations? How is the organization adapting to a new security environment? What are the key challenges facing the alliance in the decade ahead?
Speakers:
Mircea Geoană: Deputy Secretary General, NATO
Peter Rough: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Ken Weinstein: President and CEO, Hudson Institute
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Stevenson’s army, January 3
Columbia Journalism Review has a good collection of commentary on the US assassination of General Suleimani,which I’ll paste below.
Two other points: It’s fortunate that the US military blocked VIP travel to Iraq and Syria starting Dec 16 and supposedly lasting until Jan 15. I’ll be surprised if they allow it any time soon.
Even Turkey delayed sending its troops to Libya until the parliament had authorized it.
In addition to the items linked to below, see this by Heather Hurlburt and this by Dan Byman.
The killing of Qassem Suleimani and the road to war with Iran
By Jon Allsop
In the early hours of the morning, local time, state media in Iraq reported that Qassem Suleimani, Iran’s top security and intelligence official, had been killed in a drone strike at Baghdad’s international airport, along with figures tied to Iran-backed Iraqi militias. In the United States, where it was Thursday night, the news quickly spread, albeit with key details missing; cable news shows and one broadcast network, CBS, cut into their programming with portentous reports that something serious had happened. An hour or so later, the US government confirmed that its military had killed Suleimani at the direction of the president. Trump remained strangely quiet, though he did tweet a picture of an American flag. In response, Iranian officials tweeted their country’s flag, and threats of revenge. Such is the road to war in 2020.
Some context: Suleimani was greatly influential in Iran and widely revered by his countrymen. As head of the Quds Force, an elite unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, he was responsible for Iran’s prodigious maneuvering throughout the Middle East. According to a former operative of the Central Intelligence Agency who spoke to Dexter Filkins in 2013 for The New Yorker, “Suleimani is the single most powerful operative in the Middle East.” In recent years, Suleimani was influential in buttressing the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator, and other efforts that cost lives—including those of US troops—in countries from Iraq to Lebanon. According to the New York Times, Trump’s plan to kill Suleimani was initiated last week, after the administration accused an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia of killing an American contractor in an attack on an Iraqi military base. The militia denied involvement; the US bombed some of the militia’s bases anyway. Afterward, when militia members sieged the US embassy in Baghdad (staffers were trapped inside; none were hurt), American officials blamed Suleimani for being the instigator.
Presidents Obama and Bush never took shots to kill Suleimani, fearing war with Iran. Trump went ahead and did it. Does that mean we’re now at war with Iran? Experts’ initial reactions, it seems, have fallen on a spectrum—from let’s keep things in perspective to war is now inevitable to we’re already there. (In The Atlantic, Andrew Exum, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy under Obama, wrote that the killing of Suleimani “doesn’t mean war, it will not lead to war, and it doesn’t risk war. None of that. It is war.”) Two points of consensus emerged: that we are in uncharted territory and that whatever happens next will not be good. “No ‘hot take’ makes any sense now,” Rasha Al Aqeedi of Irfaa Sawtak, a site associated with the US-funded Middle East Broadcasting Networks, wrote. “None of us who work on Iraq closely ever anticipated a scenario without him.”
Nevertheless, hot takes abounded—on Twitter, where everybody suddenly seemed to be an expert on Iran, and in the news. (In particular, a CNBC piece—“America just took out the world’s no. 1 bad guy”—took a lot of heatonline.) Cable shows invited guests with close ties to the military-industrial complex: Fox News hosted Bush stalwarts Karl Rove and Ari Fleischer; MSNBC interviewed Brett McGurk, a diplomat involved in Iraq policy during the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations; CNN had on Max Boot, a Washington Post columnist who was a vocal proponent of the Iraq war. For many progressive commentators, it was all a bit too 2003 for comfort. “Cable news is hard-wired to support war,” Carlos Maza, formerly of Vox, tweeted. “It relies heavily on ex-military, ex-national security people for commentary, and routinely marginalizes anti-war voices.”
Much has changed since the early 2000s, including Boot’s perspective. He has recanted his support for the Iraq war and warned that war with Iran would be worse. Still, as I wrote last year amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran, much mainstream coverage of the countries’ relationship has been too quick to paint Iran as the menacing, unilateral aggressor, and has parroted US government talking points without applying due skepticism.
Last night, as reporters scrambled to fill in the details of Suleimani’s killing, news outlets turned repeatedly to press releases, including the Pentagon’s assurance that the strike on Suleimani “was aimed at deterring future attack plans.” As the Post’s Josh Rogin tweeted, “By the Pentagon’s own logic, if Iran retaliates, the strike mission failed its key goal. Remember that.” That’s sound advice. Already, Iran is promising “harsh retaliation.”
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Peace Picks June 3-June 9
1. How Security Cooperation Advances US Interests|June 4th, 2019|10:00am-11:00am|Brookings Institution|Saul Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
One of the United States’ key strategic advantages is a global web of alliances that allow it to project power and influence abroad. Defense security cooperation includes defense trade and arms transfers, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, institutional capacity building, and international education and training activities. The United States leverages these programs to ensure its allies and partners have the capability to defend themselves and carry out multinational operations while also building up relationships that promote American interests. As near-peer competitors seek to erode U.S. technological advantages, the importance of security cooperation will only grow in the coming years.
On June 4, Brookings will host a conversation between Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon and Lt. General Charles Hooper, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), on how DSCA advances U.S. foreign policy objectives in an era increasingly driven by great power competition.
2. Europe’s Populist and Brexit Economic Challenge|June 4th, 2019|2:00pm-4:00pm|American Enterprise Institute|Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Europe’s political landscape is becoming much more challenging, as evidenced by the strong showing of populist parties in the recent European parliamentary elections and by the deepening Brexit crisis. This event will examine how serious these challenges are to the European economic outlook and the economic policies that might be needed to meet these challenges.
Agenda:
1:45 PM
Registration
2:00 PM
Introduction:
Desmond Lachman, AEI
2:05 PM
Panel discussion
Panelists:
Lorenzo Forni, Prometeia Associazione
Vitor Gaspar, International Monetary Fund
Desmond Lachman, AEI
Athanasios Orphanides, MIT
Moderator:
Alex J. Pollock, R Street Institute
3:15 PM
Q&A
4:00 PM
Adjournment
3. Countering Terrorism in the Middle East: A Situation Report|June 4th, 2019|3:00-4:30pm|Middle East Institute|1319 18thSt NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a public panel on countering terrorism in the Middle East, featuring high-level panelists representing the United States, the United Nations and the United Kingdom: Ambassador James Jeffrey, Edmund Fitton-Brown and Jessica Jambert-Gray.
The territorial defeat of ISIS’s self-declared Caliphate in March 2019 was a significant victory in the fight against terrorism, but the ISIS threat remains urgent and widely distributed across the Middle East and beyond. Al-Qaeda meanwhile, has faced a series of challenges in the years since the Arab uprisings of 2010 and 2011, with some of its affiliates appearing to have learned lessons from the past and adapted their strategies towards operating more durably, within existing and likely intractable local conflicts. That pursuit has been a defining feature of Iran’s regional strategy, in which local militant proxies – some designated terrorist organizations – are built and consolidated in order to become permanent fixtures of countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
The international community clearly has a long struggle ahead in terms of combating the threats posed by terrorist organizations. This panel will seek to discuss these challenges and address existing and future policy responses to them.
Panelists:
Ambassador James Jeffrey, Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, Special Representative for Syria Engagement, U.S. Department of State
Edmund Fitton-Brown, Coordinator, Analytical Support & Sanctions Monitoring Team, ISIS, Al-Qaeda & Taliban, United Nations
Jessica Jambert-Gray, First Secretary, Counter-Terrorism, British Embassy to the U.S.
Charles Lister, moderator, Senior Fellow and Director, Countering Terrorism and Extremism program, MEI
4. African Women’s Mobilization in Times of Unrest|June 5th, 2019|10:30am-3:00pm|Wilson Center|5thFloor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004-3027|Register Here
Please join the Wilson Center Africa Program and the Women and Peacebuilding in Africa Consortium for a discussion on “African Women’s Mobilization in Times of Unrest” on Wednesday, June 5, from 10:30 am to 3:00 pm in the 5th Floor Conference Room. The symposium will examine the cost of women’s exclusion and the possibilities for their inclusion in peacebuilding in war-affected African countries. Based on research conducted by the Consortium, this event will seek to provide evidence, comparative theoretical insights, and policy implications on women and conflict.
The morning session will focus on Women’s Mobilization in the Current Uprisings in Sudan and Algeriaand the ways in which women’s past mobilization has led to the extraordinary roles they are playing in leading the fight for democracy, inclusion, and transparency in the current Algerian and Sudanese uprisings.
The afternoon session will discuss Women Activists’ Informal Peacebuilding Strategies in conflicts in northern Nigeria and South Sudan. It will look at the costs of exclusion from formal peacebuilding processes, and explore efforts at inclusion in governance in Somalia
Moderators:
Aili Mari Tripp, Fellow, Professor of Political Science and Women’s Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Ayesha Imam, Coordinator, Baobab, A Women’s Human Rights Organization in Nigeria
Speakers:
Samia El Nagar, Independent Researcher, Sudan
Liv Tønnessen, Research Director, Chr Michelsen Institute, Norway
Helen Kezie-Nwoha, Executive Director, Isis-Women’s International Cross Cultural Exchange
Jackline Nasiwa, Founder and National Director, Centre for Inclusive Governance, Peace and Justice, South Sudan
Ladan Affi, Assistant Professor, Zayed University, Abu Dhabi
5. A Changing Ethiopia: Lessons from U.S. Diplomatic Engagement|June 5th, 2019|2:00pm-4:00pm|U.S. Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
With more than 100 million people, Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most important and populous countries. Recent changes in political leadership have heralded widely welcomed political and economic reforms, at home and abroad. Yet amid the positivity, Ethiopia faces notable challenges: many reforms remain transitory, the country’s broader national stability is being tested, and its internal politics disputed. Given the historically strong bilateral relationship with Ethiopia, how the United States responds and supports the transition in Ethiopia will be hugely significant for the country’s future.
During this crucial period of reform and uncertainty in Ethiopia, join the U.S. Institute of Peace to hear from a distinguished panel who will reflect on their experiences as serving diplomats in Ethiopia, and identify what lessons are relevant to engagement with Ethiopia today. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #AChangingEthiopia.
Participants:
Ambassador Johnnie Carson, opening remarks, Senior Advisor to the President, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador David Shinn, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia, 1996-1999; Adjunct Professor, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
Ambassador Aurelia Brazeal, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia, 2002-2005
Ambassador Donald Boot, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia, 2010-2013
Susan Stigant, Director, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
Aly Verjee, moderator, Senior Advisor, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
6. Understanding Extremism in Northern Mozambique|June 6th, 2019|9:00am-12:00pm|Center for Strategic & International Studies|2nd Floor, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Since their first October 2017 attack in Mozambique, Islamist extremists—invariably called al-Shabaab or Ahlu Sunna wa Jama—have conducted over 110 attacks, with more than 295 civilian and military deaths. Despite this escalating violence, there are significant gaps in our understanding of the problem. There is not a consensus about the key drivers of extremism in the region, including the linkages between local, regional, and international extremist networks. Experts have struggled to identify who comprises al-Shabaab (Ahlu Sunna wa Jama), and furnish answers to key questions regarding their objectives, recruitment, or funding sources.
Join the CSIS Africa Program on Thursday, June 6, 2019, from 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. for a half-day conference on growing insecurity in Mozambique. This event will feature two expert panels on the drivers of extremism and potential response efforts in Mozambique.
Panel 1: Examining Social, Political, and Religious Drivers
Featuring Dr. Alex Vines (Chatham House), Dr. Yussuf Adam (Universidade Eduardo Mondlane), and Dr. Liazzat Bonate (University of West Indies)
Moderated by Emilia Columbo
Panel 2: Exploring Regional and International Response Efforts
Featuring H. Dean Pittman (former U.S. Ambassador to Mozambique), Zenaida Machado (Human Rights Watch), and Dr. Gregory Pirio (Empowering Communications)
Moderated by Judd Devermont (Director, CSIS Africa Program)
This event is made possible by the general support to CSIS.
FEATURING:
Dr. Alex Vines OBE,Head, Africa Program at Chatham House
Dr. Yussuf Adam, Lecturer, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
Dr. Liazzat Bonate, Lecturer, University of West Indies
Dr. Gregory Pirio, Director, Empowering Communications
Amb. H. Dean Pittman, Former U.S. Ambassador to Mozambique
Zenaida Machado , Researcher, Human Rights Watch Africa Division
Judd Devermont, Director, Africa Program
7. After India’s Vote: Prospects for Improved Ties with Pakistan|June 6th, 2019|10:00am-11:30am|U.S. Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
In March, India and Pakistan moved to the brink of war. In response to a terrorist attack claimed by a Pakistan-based militant group, India conducted an airstrike into Pakistani territory for the first time since 1971. The next day, Pakistan downed an Indian MiG 21 jet and captured its pilot. By returning the pilot two days later, India and Pakistan avoided further immediate escalation. However, tensions remain high.
Now India’s just-completed parliamentary elections pose new questions: How will the next government in New Delhi engage Pakistan, and how might Islamabad respond? To share assessments of the likely trajectory of India-Pakistan relations following India’s election and the necessary steps to improve ties, USIP will host a panel on Thursday, June 6 from 10:00am-11:30am. Panelists will include two USIP senior fellows leading the Institute’s research on the best current options for reducing and resolving the 70-year-old India-Pakistan conflict.
Participants:
Ambassador Jalil Jilani, Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow, U.S. Institute of Peace
Former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States
Tara Kartha, Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow, U.S. Institute of Peace
Former Director of Indian National Security Council Secretariat
Josh White, Associate Professor, Johns Hopkins University
Vikram Singh, moderator, Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
8. China’s Changing Role in the Middle East|June 6th, 2019|12:00pm|Atlantic Council|12thFloor, 1030 15thSt NW, Washington, DC|Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council for a keynote address outlining the Trump Administration’s views on China’s changing role in the Middle East and the implications for US foreign policy by National Security Council Senior Director for the Middle East Dr. Victoria Coates. This will be followed by a panel discussion to mark the release of an Atlantic Council report on this subject by Dr. Jonathan Fulton, assistant professor of Zayed University in Abu Dhabi based on his research across the region. The discussion will also include a perspective from Dr. Degang Sun, a visiting scholar at Harvard University and deputy director of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University in China.
Opening remarks by:
Dr. Victoria Coates, Senior Director for the Middle East, US National Security Council
Panelists:
Dr. Jonathan Fulton, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Zayed University
Dr. Degang Sun, Visiting Scholar, Harvard University
Introduced and Moderated by:
Mr. William F. Wechsler, Director, Middle East Programs, Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
9. Brittle Boundaries: Creating Collective Cybersecurity Defense|June 6th2019|3:00pm-5:00pm|Wilson Center|5thFloor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004-3027|Register Here
Currently, efforts worldwide to defend information systems and respond to cybersecurity incidents are based on a combination of government led actions, isolated regulations, and a limited culture of information sharing between industry, government, and the security research community. The current cybersecurity threat environment can be characterized by independent actions with brittle boundaries. Looking forward, there is a need for government, industry, and the security research community to work collectively together in defending systems and responding to incidents.
Please join the Wilson Center for an event to discuss the state of cyber threats – especially to critical infrastructure – and options for building a global collective defense.
This event is held in co-operation with the Embassy of Switzerland in the United States and the Europa Institut at the University of Zurich.
Speakers:
Introduction
Robert S. Litwak, Senior Vice President and Director of International Security Studies
Ambassador Martin Dahinden, Ambassador of Switzerland to the United States
Andreas Kellerhals, Global Fellow, Director, Europa Institute, University of Zurich
Keynote
André Kudelski, CEO, The Kudelski Group
Christopher C. Krebs, Director of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Department of Homeland Security
Panelists
André Kudelski, CEO, The Kudelski Group
Christopher C. Krebs, Director of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Department of Homeland Security
Paige Adams, Group Chief Information Security Officer, Zurich Insurance Group
Meg King, Strategic and National Security Advisor to the Wilson Center’s CEO & President; Coordinator of the Science and Technology Innovation Program
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Peace Picks: December 3 – 9
1. Ending Gaza’s Perpetual Crisis | Monday, December 3, 2018 | 10:00 am – 12:00 pm | Brookings Institution | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
An acute crisis has been unfolding in the Gaza Strip for over a decade. Its nearly 2 million residents live amid a man-made humanitarian disaster, with severe urban crowding, staggering unemployment, and a dire scarcity of basic services, including electricity, water, and sewage treatment. Three rounds of open warfare have devastated Gaza while placing Israelis under constant threat. Recent weeks have seen a sharp escalation in fighting, again illustrating the precarious balance of this situation. Moreover, the continued political and physical separation of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank hinders Palestinian national development while making a two-state solution even more remote.
On December 3, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings and the Center for a New American Security will launch their new report, “Ending Gaza’s Perpetual Crisis: A New U.S. Approach.” The authors, informed by the deliberations of a high-level task force on the future of U.S. policy toward Gaza, argue that the United States should no longer accept the perpetuation of the current state of affairs in Gaza, given its moral, security, and political costs. They propose instead a route by which American policymakers can help bring an end to this continued state of crisis.
Speakers
Hady Amr
Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy
Natan Sachs
Director, Center for Middle East Policy
Ilan Goldberg
Senior Fellow and Director, Middle East Security Program at Center for a New American Security
Khaled Elgindy
Fellow, Foreign Policy & Center for Middle East Policy
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen
Director, Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Program at US Institute of Peace
Dennis Ross
William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
2. Belarus and Eastern Europe Security Challenges | Monday, December 3, 2018 | 1:30pm – 3:00 pm | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
After the Ukraine crisis, Belarus has improved its image as a contributor to regional security. Part of this shift stems from greater cooperation with the West. This, along with Minsk’s selective non-compliance with Eurasian integration, however, brings closer scrutiny and potential pressure from Moscow. This panel will host a delegation of Belarusian analysts, organized by Pact and USAID, to offer a fresh examination of Belarus’s relationship with the West and with Moscow
Speakers
Vasili Kukharchyk
Country Director, Pact Belarus
Chief of Party, USAID BRAMA Activity
Kateryna Bornukova
Academic Director, Belarus Economic Research and Outreach Center
Yauheni Preiherman
Director, Minks Dialogue
3. Asia Transnational Threats Forum | Tuesday, December 4, 2018 | 9:00 am – 12:30 pm | Brookings Institution | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
How is the threat of terrorism defined in the East Asia Pacific? Who are the actors and what are their objectives? What are the technologies of terrorism and appropriate policy measures to combat the evolving threat? Moreover, how do individual states and the international community ensure that counterterrorism policies protect individual rights under the rule of law?
On December 4, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will host distinguished U.S. and Asian counterterrorism experts to articulate the terrorist threat in East Asia and how it has evolved in the region. Panelists will also assess the mechanisms for protecting civil liberties and good governance under a counterterrorism strategy, as well as its implications for regional and international cooperation. This conference is part of the Asia Transnational Threats Forum, an interdisciplinary forum launched by the Brookings Korea Chair that harnesses the collective expertise of U.S. and foreign partners to tackle key strategic issues affecting all of Asia. The first event was on cybersecurity in Asia on June 2018.
Speakers
Jung H. Pak
SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy & Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Yeong Gi Mun
Director, National Counterterrorism Center of the Republic of Korea
Audrey Kurth Cronin
Professor of International Security, American University
Mayuko Hori
Chief Officer, Counterterrorism Cooperation Unit of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan
Samm Sacks
Cybersecurity Fellow and China Digital Economy Fellow, New America
Joshua Geltzer
Visiting Professor of Law, Georgetown University
Zachary Abuza
Professor of National Security Strategy, National War College
James Baker
Visiting Fellow, Governance Studies
Ji-Hyang Jang
Senior Fellow, Asian Institute for Policy Studies
Jeffrey Feltman
Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy
4. 9th Annual Conference on Turkey | Tuesday, December 4, 2018 | 9:00 am – 4:00 pm | Middle East Institute | FHI 360 Conference Center: 1825 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Floor, Washington, District of Columbia 20009 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) are pleased to announce the 9th Annual Conference on Turkey. The conference will bring together international policy makers and experts to discuss the challenges Turkey faces domestically and its relations with the Middle East and the West.
Speakers
Knut Dethlefsen
Representative to the US and Canada, FES
Gonul Tol
Director, Center for Turkish Studies at Middle East Institute
Mustafa Akyol
Senior Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity at the CATO Institute
Abdullah Akyuz
Former President, Turkish Industry and Business Association
Sinan Ciddi
Executive Director, Institute for Turkish Studies at Georgetown University
Menderes Cinar
Professor of Political Science, Baskent University
Max Hofman
Associate Director, National Security and International Policy at Center for American Progress
The Honorable Serpil Midyatli
Member, State Parliament of Germany
Berkin Safak Sener
International Consultant on Employment, UN Development Programme
Semuhi Sinanoglu
PhD Student at Department of Political Science, University of Toronto
Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein
Senior Vice President, Middle East Institute
… and others.
5. Stabilizing Syria: Toward a Human Security Framework | Wednesday, December 5, 2018 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am | Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
Over the past two years, the Atlantic Council’s Rebuilding Syria Initiative has worked to inform and advance transatlantic policy to foster a transition toward legitimate public order in Syria through economic reconstruction and stabilization. In this effort, we have pooled expertise from specialists to cover the many challenges of rebuilding Syria, including in political economy, development, infrastructure, civil society, law, and employment.
Lessons learned from these engagements are captured in the Initiative’s final report, “Rethinking Stabilization in Eastern Syria: Toward a Human Security Framework,” authored by Dr. Steven Heydemann.
The report finds that as the focus of the Syrian conflict narrows to the two remaining contested areas of the country, the presence of US forces on the ground gives the United States some leverage in shaping the closing trajectory of the conflict. In eastern Syria, the United States has an opportunity to use stabilization—a political endeavor to create conditions where locally legitimate authorities and systems can peaceably manage conflict—to advance both short- and long-term interests.
Speakers
Dr. Steven Heydemann
Professor in Middle East Studies, Smith College
Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes
Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution
Faysal Itani
Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council
6. Artificial Intelligence & Quantum Technology: Implication for US National Security | Wednesday, December 5, 2018 | 11:30 am – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute |1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400, Washington, DC 20004| Register Here
Hudson Institute will host a timely discussion on the increasing risk that rapidly emerging advanced technologies pose to U.S national security. To explore these critical issues, Rep. Mike McCaul, Chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, will deliver keynote remarks then engage in a moderated Q&A with Senior Fellow Arthur Herman, director of Hudson’s Quantum Alliance Initiative.
Competitor nations, such as Russia and China, have devoted significant resources in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum information science, particularly quantum computing. A recent report from the bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy for the United States warned that “U.S. superiority in key areas of innovation is decreasing or has disappeared [while] U.S. competitors are investing heavily in innovation.” Given their enormous promise for benefiting human kind, how should Washington respond to ensure U.S. military superiority while also promoting the peaceful use of AI and quantum technology?
A panel discussion will follow Rep. McCaul’s remarks with Dr. Herman, Aaron VanDevender from Founders Fund, Elsa Kania from the Center for New American Security, Andrew Kim from Google, and Hudson Senior Fellow Sorin Ducaru, a former senior NATO official for emerging security challenges.
Speakers
The Honorable Mike McCaul (R-TX)
Chair, Homeland Security Committee, House of Representatives
Aaron Van Devender
Chief Scientist, Founders Fund
Elsa Kania
Adjunct Fellow, Technology and National Security Program, Center for New American Strategy
Sorin Ducaru
Former Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges, NATO
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Arthur Herman
Senior Fellow and Director, Quantum Alliance Initiative, Hudson Institute
Andrew Kim
Senior Analyst, Public Policy and Government Relations, Google
7. Maritime Security Dialogue | Thursday, December 6, 2018 | 9:30 am – 10:30 am | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Please join CSIS and the United States Naval Institute (USNI) for a Maritime Security Dialogue event featuring a conversation with the Honorable Richard V. Spencer, 76th Secretary of the Navy. He will be discussing the state of the Navy and Marine Corps and innovation in the naval domain.
Speakers
The Honorable Richard V. Spencer
76th Secretary of the Navy
Vice Admiral Peter Daly, USN (ret.)
Chief Executive Officer, US Naval Institute
John J. Hamre
CSIS President and CEO
8. What’s Next for Syria? | Friday, December 7, 2018 | 10:30 am – 12:00 pm | Middle East Institute |1319 18th Street NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a moderated conversation on Syria with Salman Shaikh, the founder and CEO of The Shaikh Group, and Ambassador Frederic C. Hof. Syria’s political process is at a standstill, with a constitutional commission still not formed and UN Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, soon to depart his role. With the conflict continuing to evolve and international attention shifting, new thinking is needed to tackle the Middle East’s most thorny issue: how to resolve the crisis in Syria.
Shaikh will discuss his lessons learned from many years of intensive Track II efforts on Syria and how they might be applied to designing more effective, alternative pathways forward; and Hof will expand on the implications and sustainability of the newly announced U.S. strategy in Syria and prospects for progress on the political track.
MEI’s senior fellow and director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism program Charles Lister will moderate the conversation.
Speakers
Amb. Frederic C. Hof
Professor and Diplomatic in Residence, Bard College
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
Salman Shaikh
Founder and CEO, The Shaikh Group
Charles Lister
Senior Fellow and Director, Countering Terrorism and Extremism Program, Middle East Institute
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Stabilizing Iraq and Syria post-ISIS
The National Press Club last Wednesday hosted the Foreign Policy Research Institute‘s launch of the latest issue of their journal, Orbis, entitled “Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent after the Fall of the Caliphate.” The papers aim to analyze the current state of ISIS as well as society in Iraq and Syria, and to assess and recommend possible guidelines and tactics for American action in the region. To accompany the issue’s launch, FPRI invited the following speakers to discuss the topic of stabilization in Syria and Iraq:
Moderator: Samuel Helfont – Assistant Professor, Naval War College, Monterey
Tally Helfont – Director of Program on the Middle East, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Barak Mendelsohn – Associate Professor, Haverford College
Assaf Moghadam – Adjunct Associate Professor, Columbia University
Mendelsohn asserted that to deal with global jihadi movements like al-Qaeda and ISIS we need to more accurately assess the scope of their threat and capacities. The challenge they pose to local and American security is often overblown. Focusing on jihadi terrorist attacks is counter-productive. A single successful terrorist attack can lead to the impression that the jidadis are “winning,” when the situation is often more complex. Terrorism is an instrument for political, not strategic or military objectives. Jihadi movements consistently fail to achieve their political objectives – for instance, setting up a sustainable ISIS caliphate – through terrorism.
Mendelsohn also emphasized the systemic challenges that constrain the threat posed by transnational jihadi movements. National and subnational identities, which are usually of national or ethnic nature, constrain the appeal of transnational movements based on religious identity. It is not sufficient to practice Islam to find religious political leadership appealing. Political as well as religious or social affiliation is needed. As transnational political movements, cross-border logistical coordination is also an issue for jihadi groups. Finally, they are plagued by infighting, further reducing their capacity to operate effectively.
Moghadam agreed with Mendelsohn on the constraining factors jihadi groups face. He hoped, however, that policy-makers would not confuse “jihadism constrained” with “jihadism declining.” While their threat might often be overblown, jihadi groups will not disappear any time soon. Their ideology continues to appeal to some people. Jihadi movements are by nature highly decentralized. Their lack of a “center of gravity” means they cannot be easily eradicated with a precise military attack.
Decentralization also means that jihadi groups’ constituent parts are adaptable and innovative. Key individuals play an oversized role, making jihadi groups capable of reacting to changing environments. In addition, the conditions that gave rise to jihadi groups such as ISIS are still in place. In Syria especially, regions devastated by ISIS will face governance and resource issues for decades to come, providing fertile ground for radical military groups to thrive.
Moghadam concluded by predicting that we will witness a shift in the global jihadi movement from a “bipolar” structure – centered around the poles of ISIS and al-Qaeda – to a “multipolar,” localized structure, with smaller groups gaining influence in a greater number of locations. This will make it harder to fully eradicate the threat of jihadism. When it comes to counter-terrorism, he advocated for a less reactionary stance. Jihadi groups use terrorism to provoke Western governments into over-reacting, thus alienating Muslim communities and reinforcing the appeal of the groups Western states are trying to combat. He called for better cooperation with Muslim communities in Europe and the US.
Tally Helfont focused on what Gulf states can do to counter the influence of jihadi groups in the Middle East. These states are worried about the appeal of transnational jihadism in the Gulf, but are also seeking to counter Iranian influence and fill the vacuum left by American political withdrawal. Gulf states’ counter-terrorism strategy has focused on stopping “men, money, and ideas.” This means increasingly trying to curb the radical messages and influence of local religious leaders as well as stopping financial flows to terrorists from private citizens in the Gulf.
Countering jihadi ideas is especially important, both in education and in mosques. Helfont asserts that Gulf states – particularly Saudi Arabia and UAE – have begun to see the appeal of critical thinking and want to create new generations of citizens who are capable of thinking for themselves and innovating with the best on the international stage.
Caveat emptor: It was hard to decipher useful lessons from the panelists’ statements. While the jihadi threat is often overblown, it is essential for the American government to portray ISIS as a genuine threat to national security to justify continued involvement in Syria and Iraq. A Muslim terrorism group is also a useful foil in electoral campaigns. Doubts should be raised about the capacity of stabilization to succeed without subsequent peace-building and reconstructing projects afterwards. There’s still a lot to consider before we can get a clear idea of how to durably stabilize the Fertile Crescent.
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Peace picks December 4 – 8
- 8th Annual Conference on Turkey | Monday, December 4 | 9:00 am – 3:30 pm | Middle East Institute (held at the National Press Club) | Register Here |The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation are pleased to host MEI’s 8th Annual Conference on Turkey. At a time of critical internal developments and international tensions, this program of three panels on Turkey’s domestic politics, economy, and foreign relations will feature Turkish, European, and U.S. office-holders, policymakers, and expert analysts from both sides of the Atlantic. The conference’s first panel, “Turkey’s Domestic Politics,” will feature Aykan Erdemir of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, Ahmet Kuru of San Diego State University, Giran Ozcan of the People’s Democratic Party, Güneş Murat Tezcür of the University of Central Florida, and moderator Lisel Hintz of Johns Hopkins SAIS. The second panel, titled, “Turkey’s Economy,” will include Arne Lietz of the European Parliament, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan of the University of Maryland, and Omer Taspinar of the National Defense University. The Brookings Institution’s Kemal Kirisci will moderate. For the final panel, “Turkey’s Foreign Policy,” moderator Amberin Zaman of Al-Monitor will be joined by Dimitar Bechev of the Atlantic Council, Jonathan Cohen of the U.S. Department of State, Kati Piri of the European Parliament, and Ozturk Yilmaz, a member of the Turkish parliament representing the Republican People’s Party. Michael Meier of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) and Gönül Tol of MEI will deliver opening remarks, and Michelle Müntefering of the German Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee will be the keynote speaker.
- Rebuilding Syria: A Localized Revitalization Strategy | Monday, December 4 | 12:30 pm | Atlantic Council | Register Here | The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East is launching the first report of its two-year project, Rebuilding Syria: Reconstruction and Legitimacy. Over the course of the project’s first year, the Hariri Center has pooled expertise from specialists on the many issues surrounding rebuilding Syria, including economics, finance, development, infrastructure, political economy, civil society, food security, energy, law, and employment. From these insights, gleaned from multiple roundtable workshops, interviews, and commissioned research and writing from inside Syria, the project has created a strategic roadmap to rebuilding based on a localized, ground-up approach. The report, authored by Hariri Center Senior Fellow Faysal Itani and independent international security analyst Tobias Schneider, lays out this vision and offers concrete actions that can be taken now towards the long-term goal of revitalizing Syria with the participation of Syrians and the support of the international community. Itani and Schneider will be joined by moderator Mona Yacoubian of the United States Institute of Peace for this discussion. The Atlantic Council’s Ambassador Frederic C. Hof will introduce the panel.
- Conditions Facing Religious Minorities in Iraqi Kurdistan | Tuesday, December 5 | 3:00 – 4:30 pm | Middle East Institute | Register Here | Surrounded by conflict and grappling with a rapidly changing political landscape, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) stands out as a locus of relative stability in its region. A recently-released report by the United States Commission for International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), entitled “Wilting in the Kurdish Sun: The Hopes and Fears of Religious Minorities in Northern Iraq,” highlights the difficulties faced in the KRI to address religious freedom. The report underscores the KRG’s struggle to protect the region’s many vulnerable religious communities and discusses the grievances of the communities, and offers recommendations on how to address them in the sensitive, post-ISIS environment. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a panel discussion drawing on the report, featuring Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman (KRG), Jomana Qaddour (USCIRF), and Randa Slim (MEI). MEI senior vice president for policy research and programs Paul Salem will moderate the event.
- Turmoil Across the Middle East: What Does It Mean? | Tuesday, December 5 | 9:30 – 11:00 am | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here | What should we make of the Middle East’s upheavals? In recent weeks, the Islamic State (ISIS) “caliphate” collapsed. Syria’s Assad regime all but won the six-year war, thus consolidating Iranian and Russian influence. Saudi Arabia purged parts of its royal family. Lebanon’s prime minister abruptly resigned. Iraq’s Kurds voted for independence, triggering confrontation with Baghdad. Years of U.S. and international engagement has failed to rebuild fractured countries, and the very viability of states like Iraq and Syria has been challenged. At USIP, distinguished Middle East analysts will explore where the region is headed, and the U.S. roles amid this tumult. In the face of the region’s challenges, the Trump administration has voiced strong support for Israel and Saudi Arabia, while confronting Iran. Mike Yaffe, vice president of the Middle East and Africa center at USIP, will moderate this discussion with Robin Wright, who has reported from the region for four decades, Bruce Riedel, a 30-year veteran of the CIA, Mona Yacoubian, who recently coordinated U.S. assistance to much of the region, and Aaron David Miller, who advised Republican and Democratic secretaries of state on Middle East policy over two decades.
- The Global War on Terrorism: Myths, Realities & Solutions | Wednesday, December 6 | 6:00 – 8:00 pm | Rise to Peace (held at George Washington University) | Register Here | Rise to Peace (risetopeace.org) is a nonprofit organization dedicated to educating others on the dangers of extremism and terrorism, particularly how these groups prey on and recruit the youth. In this discussion, hosted by Rise to Peace, the panelists will examine the Post-9/11 “Global War on Terrorism” and address such questions as: Have military operations in the Middle East and Africa suppressed terrorist safe havens? Have domestic surveillance efforts helped or hindered internal security in the United States? Have diplomatic efforts fostered cooperation among the United States and its allies to thwart the rise of extremism? Panelists will include Ambassador John W. Limbert of the United States Naval Academy, Christopher A. Kojm of George Washington University, Gawdat Bahgat of the National Defense University, Ahmad Shah Mohibi of Rise to Peace, Michael R. Sherwin of the U. S. Department of Justice, and Alicia Fawcett of Rise to Peace.
- The Nuke Ban Treaty: Now What? | Wednesday, December 6 | 12:00 pm | Stimson Center | Register Here | In July, 122 states voiced support for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The treaty will enter into force 90 days after 50 states ratify it. But what effect, if any, could this treaty have given that none of the nuclear weapon states have signed it? And if a goal of the treaty – as stated in its preamble – is to bring about complete nuclear disarmament, how could this be achieved through further treaty developments or other efforts? This event will be an on-the-record discussion co-hosted by The Washington Foreign Law Society and The Stimson Center on the prospects of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and how complete nuclear disarmament can be achieved. The discussion will feature Barry M. Blechman of the Stimson Center, Ambassador James E. Goodby of the Hoover Institution, Mallory Stewart of the Stimson Center, and Cymie Payne of Rutgers University. Stimson’s Debra Decker will moderate the panel
- Lessons from the Syria Crisis: Old Rivalries, New Dynamics | Thursday, December 7 | 3:00 – 5:00 pm | Turkish Heritage Organization (held at the National Press Club) | Register Here | Recent developments in the Syria crisis have shaken up established rivalries and alliances in the region. NATO member Turkey is experiencing historic lows in its bilateral relationship with the U.S., while it is working closely with traditional rivals like Russia and Iran to manage the conflict on its southern border. However, President Trump’s recent promise to President Erdogan that the U.S. is looking to adjust its current military support to the YPG in Syria is a reminder of the commitment of both countries to continue efforts to resolve differences that have created strain in their relationship. Join THO at the National Press Club on December 7 to hear from a panel of distinguished experts on the new international dynamics that have arisen from the ongoing crisis in Syria. Speakers will include Barry Pavel of the Atlantic Council, Seyed Hossein Mousavian of Princeton University, Lincoln Bloomfield of the Stimson Center, and moderator Sinem Vatanartiran of BAU International University.
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