Tag: Democratic Republic of Congo
“Nobody has any idea what to do about it”
I’ve never met Laura Seay, except briefly in cyberspace. All I know is that she is @texasinafrica, a Morehouse professor and smart. Her 2009 analysis of the breakdown of governance in “what to do in the congo” holds up well today, but her proposed solutions aren’t happening: the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) aren’t getting any better and the UN force (now called MONUSCO) isn’t able to handle the situation the way she suggests. When I queried her about the need for an update, she answered: “Nobody has any idea what to do about it.” We should all be so clear and concise.
Washington is nevertheless sending its “top Africa diplomat.” That’s Assistant Secretary of State Johnny Carson, a veteran of great virtues. But his means are very limited. To show disapproval of support for the M23 rebels who have taken the provincial capital Goma in Eastern Congo, the United States has suspended $200,000 in military assistance to Rwanda, which has repeatedly supported rebellions across its western border. That’s pocket change even in Kigali, probably intended to support military education for Rwandan officers in the United States. Cutting it off isn’t likely to have much impact.
Meanwhile M23 is wreaking havoc on a mineral-rich area that has already seen several decades of conflict. some of Laura Seay’s suggestions from 2009 are still apropos:
- …the root causes of the conflict – land disputes and citizenship rights – need to be sorted out. This means getting the courts functioning and creating an enforcement mechanism for implementing court decisions about land claims. It also means guaranteeing the citizenship rights of Kinyarwanda-speaking Congolese, which should involve a massive public education campaign. This won’t solve all of the problems, but it would be a start.
- In the provision of public goods other than security, the international community needs to work with local organizations who are already providing efficient, quality services rather than pretending that government institutions are the best entities with which to cooperate. Most government health and education institutions are already being run by third parties (in particular, churches and mosques). International donors should work with these communities to implement positive, locally conceived solutions to seemingly intractable problems.
- Local solutions, proposed by community leaders and the victims of violence, should be privileged in conversations about what needs to be done on almost every issue. Goodness knows the army of international experts (myself included) who pontificate on the DRC have proven that we don’t know how to solve the country’s problems. Let’s give people who might a chance, and let’s take their suggestions seriously for once.
This all makes eminently good sense to me, but none of it is likely happen unless some semblance of stability emerges. I purposely did not say “is reimposed,” as none of the forces in Eastern Congo seem strong enough to definitively dominate the others. The best one can hope for is a balance of forces that is relatively nonviolent and allows the local population to fend for itself.
This will disappoint another of my Twitter acquaintances, Doudou Kalala (@kalala), a Congolese citizen and MA in Human Security and Peacebuilding from Royal Road University, Victoria BC. He is currently volunteering with Cuso International in Jamaica. He argues that DRC is a classic intractable conflict that requires a major, multi-facted, long-term international intervention. In his words:
The point I am trying to make is that, the solution to the conflict in the Congo is a long process that should start now and lead to building administrative infrastructure, accountability, justice, social and intellectual capital, army, police through EDUCATION and research…
The trouble is I don’t see any prospect of that any time soon. Even a balance of forces that allows the local population to fend for itself may be too much to hope for. So let’s wish Johnny Carson good luck. He is going to need it.
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Wisdom, not resolve
I’m in Atlanta this week for Thanksgiving, which Americans will mark tomorrow with parades, running races, a giant meal, lots of football (watching and playing) and much debate on the issues of our day, from cranberry sauce recipes to the state of world affairs. Some will go to church, but most will mark the day entirely at home–or in a relative’s home–with marathon culinary preparations, a lengthy and leisurely afternoon meal and a long denouement of talk, napping and TV, in my family followed in the late evening by a giant turkey sandwich, on white toast.
I mention these things because close to 50% of my readers are non-Americans, only some of whom will have enjoyed the Thanksgiving experience first hand. To my knowledge, the holiday is entirely a New World phenomenon. Canada has its own version, celebrated last month. Of course lots of cultures express thanks in both religious and non-religious ways, but I wonder if any have made it quite the major event that the North Americans have. Readers should feel free to enlighten me.
Americans certainly have a great deal to be thankful for. We are slowly climbing out of a lingering recession, we’ve gotten through the difficult quadrennial drama of presidential elections without the uncertainties that have sometimes plagued the process, our troops are out of Iraq and moving out of Afghanistan, and there is no existential threat on the horizon, even if there are many less dramatic challenges. We are the solution to our own worst problems, which focus on the relatively mundane questions of what the government should spend money on and where it should find the revenue needed.
The world is not in such good shape. While statistics show that the overall frequency of war is down, the catalogue is full of long lasting conflicts and their devastating impacts on people: the revolution and civil war in Syria are getting on to marking two years, Israel and Palestine have been in conflict one way or another for 65 years, the Afghanistan/Pakistan war is dragging into its 12th year, and I don’t know how to determine when the war against al Qaeda in Yemen, the war against its affiliates in Somalia or the war in Eastern Congo began. Then there are the more recent conflicts: northern Mali and the all but defeated revolution in Bahrain. And there are the wars that might come: perhaps against Iran, in the South or East China Seas, on the Korean peninsula or between South Sudan and Sudan.
I can’t claim that most Americans will be thinking about these disasters as they give thanks for their own blessings. They are more likely to be thinking about Breezy Point and Hoboken, two communities that hurricane Sandy devastated early this month. We’ve still got tens of thousands homeless and some without power weeks later. Those who turn to America for help–and many do–are going to find us preoccupied these days with our own needs. I suspect this will not be just a short-term phenomenon, but a longer-term effort to put our own house in order, limiting commitments abroad and prioritizing them in accordance with America’s own interests.
This will sound ungenerous to non-Americans, who may bemoan American interference but also look to the U.S. to step in to help stop the Gaza fighting and turn to Washington when other disasters strike. We will continue to do what we can where vital American interests are at stake, but it will be healthy if we are a bit less committed and rely on others rather more than we have in the past. Our withdrawal–retrenchment is what some call it–will not be absolute. It has to be calculated and calibrated. Good judgment, not ideology, should be its guide.
That is one of the many reasons I am grateful to the American people for re-electing President Obama. I don’t always agree with his judgment–I’d rather he did more on Syria, for example–but he is thoughtful and cautious in ways that fit our current circumstances. Managing the relative decline in American power and constructing a global architecture that will limit conflict and provide space for those who choose to live in free societies to prosper are the great challenges of the coming generations. Wisdom, not resolve, is the essential ingredient to meet them.
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This week’s peace picks
Africa and India take the spotlight in this relatively quiet week:
1. Assessing Governance in Rwanda, 10:00am-11:30am, Tuesday, August 7
Venue: International Republican Institute
The International Republican Institute’s Democratic Governance Speakers Series and the Atlantic Council invite you to a discussion on governance in Rwanda with Professor Anastase Shyaka, Chief Executive Officer of the Rwanda Governance Board; and Dr. J. Peter Pham, the Director of the Michael S. Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council. Professor Shyaka and Dr. Pham will discuss Rwanda’s governance model and the successes and challenges facing Rwanda in terms of democratic governance.
Speakers:
Anastase Shyaka is currently Chief Executive Officer of the Rwanda Governance Board. Previously, Professor Shyaka was Director of the Center for Conflict Management at the National University of Rwanda. Professor Shyaka is a leading expert on governance and political development in Rwanda and the great lakes region, having worked on many studies and publications focused on peace and conflict analysis, democracy, governance, and international relations. His academic accomplishments also include being named a Fulbright Scholar in Residence at George Mason University and Nothern Virginia Community College. Professor Shyaka holds a Ph.D. in Political Science.
J. Peter Pham is Director of the Michael S. Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council. Dr. Pham was previously a tenured Associate Professor of Justice Studies, Political Science, and African Studies at James Madison University, where he also served as Director of the Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs. A staunch advocate of robust American engagement with Africa, Dr. Pham has served on many of IRI’s election monitoring delegations to Africa, including Liberia (2005), Nigeria (2007, 2011) and Somaliland (2010). He is also a frequent guest lecturer on African affairs at the Foreign Service Institute, the U.S. Army War College, the Joint Special Operations University, the Defense Institute for Security Assistance Management and other U.S. government professional educational institutions.
2. An Indian Perspective on US Strategic Goals in Asia, 6:00pm-7:45pm, Thursday, August 9
Venue: School of International Studies Kenney Auditorium
Much has been talked about the U.S.-India strategic relationship in the last few months in Washington D.C., but mostly from a U.S. perspective. The Obama Administration has begun to pivot US power more toward Asia, recognizing the growing economic importance of Asia to U.S. interests and the heightened threat posed by challenges and instability in the region. While India generally has a sympathetic view of U.S. goals, there are a number of important differences as well as an Indian determination to control its own foreign policy objectives.
Ambassador T.P. Sreenivasan, a former senior Foreign Service officer of India, will lead a discussion of an Indian view of the growing U.S. presence in Asia and what that means for India and its interests. Ambassador Sreenivasan served as the Deputy Chief of Mission in Washington D.C. during 1997-2000, and as India’s Ambassador to several countries including Austria and Slovenia. He also served as India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations and Governor for India to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna.
3. The Legacy of Iran’s Green Movement: Film Screening and Discussion, 6:00pm-9:00pm, Thursday, August 9
Venue: West End Cinema, 2301 M Street NW
POMED is pleased to host a public screening of the groundbreaking documentary The Green Wave (2010), which examines the 2009 protests in Iran against the fraudulent presidential elections that summer and the subsequent crackdown on pro-democracy activists, members of what became known as the Green Movement. The film – a collage of direct video footage, live interviews, Facebook and Twitter accounts, and animation – won awards in 2011 at the Hamburg Filmfest, IDFA Amsterdam, and the Sundance Film Festival, and it will be released in theaters in the U.S. on August 10th and available on Movies on Demand.
To provide context for the film, Iran experts Alireza Nader, Jamal Abdi, and Suzanne Maloney will provide remarks about the legacy of Iran’s Green Movement, what effect it has had across the region, and opportunities for international actors to constructively and peacefully support democratic change in Iran. Why is the Green Movement important now, three years after mass street protests garnered international attention? How are pro-democracy efforts in Iran viewed in the Arab world, particularly in light of the 2011 Arab uprisings? How did the emergence of Iran’s Green Movement affect U.S. interactions with Iran, and how can the U.S. relationship with the Iranian people be renewed and leveraged in a way that helps Iranians achieve their aspirations for a more representative government and freer country?
6:00-6:30pm
Drink reception, patio of the West End Cinema
6:30-7:15pm
Panel discussion featuring:
Alireza Nader
Senior International Policy Analyst, Rand Corporation
Jamal Abdi
Policy Director, National Iranian American Council
Suzanne Maloney
Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the
Brookings Institution
Moderator: Stephen McInerney
Executive Director, POMED
7:30-9:00pm
Film Screening: The Green Wave
4. Ambassador of the Gambia to the US Discusses Food Crisis, 6:30pm-8:00pm, Thursday August 9
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Join us on August 9 for a discussion with the Ambassador of The Gambia to the United States Alieu Ngum as he addresses the bilateral U.S.-Gambia relationship in the context of regional economic, political, and social issues.
The Gambia is facing a severe food crisis due to water shortages and crop failure in the West Africa region. Ambassador Ngum’s remarks will open with his government’s response to the crisis and his diplomatic role with bilateral and multilateral policymakers in Washington, D.C. He will also touch upon prospects for economic development in the context of a food crisis, regional security concerns that arise in the short and long term, and civil society’s response to national disasters in The Gambia.
The Ambassador Series offers YPFP General Members the opportunity to have a frank and informal discussion with an important member of the Washington diplomatic community. As a premier organization committed to mutual understanding and dialogue, YPFP seeks to engage Washington’s diplomatic community on a number of issues related to U.S. foreign policy, international cooperation and public diplomacy through this highly successful series.
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Peace picks this week
1. What’s Next? Mali in the Aftermath of the March 22 Coup d’Etat, SAIS, 12:30-2 pm April 16
In collaboration with Eastern Congo Initiative (ECI) and a coalition of organizations concerned with the future of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), The Wilson Center’s Africa Program invites you to an event entitled “Military Reform in the Democratic Republic of Congo”. This discussion will center on a report entitled Taking a Stand on Security Sector Reform, which was researched, written and signed by dozens of international groups from the US, EU and the DRC.
The report discusses the symptoms, causes and possible solutions to the lack of security and the violation of human rights in the country. “An effective security sector – organized, resourced, trained and vetted – is essential to solving problems from recruitment of child soldiers, internal displacement, to economic growth or the trade in conflict minerals” says the report. It concludes that the main reason for the failure of army reform in DRC is a lack of political will from parts of the Congolese government coupled with the lack of strong commitment and coordination from the international community.
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Director, Africa Program and Project on Leadership and Building State Capacity
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Eastern Congo Initiative Fellow
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Karl Wycoff //Deputy Assistant Secretary, United States Department of State
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Cindy McCain //Founding Member, Eastern Congo Initiative
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Network for Security Sector Reform and Justice (RRSSJ)
To RSVP for this event kindly send an email to Africa@wilsoncenter.org.
3. Conflict and Stabilization Operations: A Conversation with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Rick Barton, Brookings, 10-11 am April 17
Where
Saul/Zilkha Rooms
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map
On April 17, Global Economy and Development at Brookings will host Ambassador Rick Barton, the newly confirmed assistant secretary of state for Conflict and Stabilization Operations. Assistant Secretary Barton will discuss his vision for the new bureau and the priorities on his agenda. Brookings Fellow Noam Unger will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion.
After the program, Assistant Secretary Barton will take audience questions.
Participants
Featured Speaker
Rick Barton
Assistant Secretary of State for Conflict and Stabilization Operations
U.S. Department of State
4. World Military Spending: Recent Trends, Stimson, 12-1:30 April 17
Place: SIPRI North America, 1111 19th St. NW, 12th floor, Washington DC 20036
RSVP: Please click here.
The following key points and questions will be discussed by a panel of experts:
- Presentation of the newly-released SIPRI figures for world military expenditures in 2011, outlining some of the key figures and trends
- How is the global financial crisis impacting world military spending?
- Do military spending trends suggest a shift in the global balance of power?
- Can military expenditures be cut (or cut further) to redirect spending to other priorities? What are the obstacles to this in different countries and regions?
- As the US seeks to reduce its budget deficit, how far should the military budget be cut?
- What are the reasons for increasing military spending by some regional powers? Does this create a danger of regional arms races?
Speakers
- Dr. Sam Perlo-Freeman, Head of Military Expenditure Project, SIPRI
- Dr. Gordon Adams, Distinguished Fellow – Budgeting for Foreign Affairs and Defense, Stimson Center
- Dr. Nora Bensahel, Deputy Director of Studies and Senior Fellows, Center for a New American Security
Moderator: Dr. Chantal de Jonge Oudraat, Executive Director, SIPRI North America
If you have any questions, please contact Masha Keller at sipri-na@sipri.org.
5. The Arab Awakening: One Year Later, SAIS, 1740 MA, 12-2:30 pm April 18
The Center for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins University, SAIS, along with the French Embassy to the United States and the Alliance française
invite you to
a French Embassy Rendez-vous
The Arab Awakening:
One Year Later
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
12:00 pm–2:30 pm
Kenney Auditorium
1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
with
Keynote Speaker
His Excellency François Delattre
Ambassador of France to the United States of America
and
His Excellency Mohamed Salah Tekaya
Ambassador of Tunisia to the United States of America
Remarks about Tunisia: progress, opportunities and challenges since the revolution
The Arab awakening and the rapidity of the events which are irreversibly altering the face of the Middle East have unequivocally called into question the ability of political analyses to provide the necessary tools for understanding the global scenario and its underlying trends, especially when their basic assumptions are openly challenged. Civil society, left to itself after the revolution, has been confronted with several constitutional, institutional and socio-economic issues. One year after the beginning of the revolution, we will question the challenges raised by the democratic aspiration and faced by the new regimes.
Welcoming Remarks: Aude Jehan, French Embassy Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations
Moderator: Ambassador Kurt Volker, Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations
Panelists: Suzanne Maloney, Brookings Institute, The implications of the Arab awakening for the regional balance of power
Ömer Taşpınar, SAIS and Brookings Institute, Europe’s Approach to the Arab awakening and Turkey
Julie Taylor, RAND, The Arab Awakening: A Double-edged Sword for Moderate Islamists
Manal Omar, U.S. Institute of Peace, The role of Women in post-revolution societies
A light reception will follow with the kind support of Paul’s Bakery
6. The Islamists Are Coming: Who They Really Are, WWC, 12:30-2 pm April 18
To attend this event, please send an RSVP to maria-stella.gatzoulis@wilsoncenter.org
The Islamists Are Coming is the first book to survey the rise of Islamist groups in the wake of the Arab Spring. Often lumped together, the more than 50 Islamist parties with millions of followers now constitute a whole new spectrum—separate from either militants or secular parties. They will shape the new order in the world’s most volatile region, more than any other political bloc, yet they have diverse goals and different constituencies. Sometimes they are even rivals.
In this book, Robin Wright offers an overview and 10 experts identify Islamists in Algeria, Egypt (two chapters), Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, the Palestinian territories, Syria, and Tunisia. Each chapter is designed to help both a general audience and specialists.
A book website at www.theislamistsarecoming.com, to launch on the day of the event, will provide updates and an ongoing conversation among these and other experts.
The National Conversation at the Woodrow Wilson Center series provides a safe political space for deep dialogue and informed discussion of the most significant problems and challenges facing the nation and the world.
To attend this event, please send an RSVP to maria-stella.gatzoulis@wilsoncenter.org.
Location:
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Robin Wright//USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished ScholarJournalist and Author of seven books, most recently “Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World”
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Nathan J Brown//FellowProfessor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University
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Les Campbell //Senior Associate & Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute
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Samer S. Shehata//FellowAssistant Professor of Arab Politics, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
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Jane Harman//Director, President, and CEO
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Steve Inskeep//ModeratorHost, Morning Edition on National Public Radio
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You won’t find any of this on Amazon
Hanukkah, an apocryphal festival if there ever was one, starts this evening. In my family, we expected gifts each night. Here’s my wish list:
1. Release of those arrested post-election in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
2. A serious civilian government in Egypt ready to restrain the security forces and fulfill the ideals of the revolution.
3. International Criminal Court indictment of President Saleh of Yemen.
4. Turnover of power in Damascus to the Syrian National Council.
5. A transition in North Korea that opens the door to peaceful reform.
6. An end to military action in the Nuba Mountains and resolution of Sudan’s disputes with the South.
7. Quick and peaceful formation of a new government in Baghdad.
8. Success in negotiations with the Taliban that allows accelerated withdrawal of U.S. troops.
If you think this is grand, just wait until you see what I ask for the twelve days of Christmas!
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What threatens the United States?
The Council on Foreign Relations published its Preventive Priorities Survey for 2012 last week. What does it tell us about the threats the United States faces in this second decade of the 21st century?
Looking at the ten Tier 1 contingencies “that directly threaten the U.S. homeland, are likely to trigger U.S. military involvement because of treaty commitments, or threaten the supplies of critical U.S. strategic resources,” only three are defined as military threats:
- a major military incident with China involving U.S. or allied forces
- an Iranian nuclear crisis (e.g., surprise advances in nuclear weapons/delivery capability, Israeli response)
- a U.S.-Pakistan military confrontation, triggered by a terror attack or U.S. counterterror operations
Two others might also involve a military threat, though the first is more likely from a terrorist source:
- a mass casualty attack on the U.S. homeland or on a treaty ally
- a severe North Korean crisis (e.g., armed provocations, internal political instability, advances in nuclear weapons/ICBM capability)
The remaining five involve mainly non-military contingencies:
- a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure (e.g., telecommunications, electrical power, gas and oil, water supply, banking and finance, transportation, and emergency services)
- a significant increase in drug trafficking violence in Mexico that spills over into the United States
- severe internal instability in Pakistan, triggered by a civil-military crisis or terror attacks
- political instability in Saudi Arabia that endangers global oil supplies
- intensification of the European sovereign debt crisis that leads to the collapse of the euro, triggering a double-dip U.S. recession and further limiting budgetary resources
Five of the Tier 2 contingencies “that affect countries of strategic importance to the United States but that do not involve a mutual-defense treaty commitment” are also at least partly military in character, though they don’t necessarily involve U.S. forces:
- a severe Indo-Pak crisis that carries risk of military escalation, triggered by major terror attack
- rising tension/naval incident in the eastern Mediterranean Sea between Turkey and Israel
- a major erosion of security and governance gains in Afghanistan with intensification of insurgency or terror attacks
- a South China Sea armed confrontation over competing territorial claims
- a mass casualty attack on Israel
But Tier 2 also involves predominantly non-military threats to U.S. interests, albeit with potential for military consequences:
- political instability in Egypt with wider regional implications
- an outbreak of widespread civil violence in Syria, with potential outside intervention
- an outbreak of widespread civil violence in Yemen
- rising sectarian tensions and renewed violence in Iraq
- growing instability in Bahrain that spurs further Saudi and/or Iranian military action
Likewise Tier 3 contingencies “that could have severe/widespread humanitarian consequences but in countries of limited strategic importance to the United States” include military threats to U.S. interests:
- military conflict between Sudan and South Sudan
- increased conflict in Somalia, with continued outside intervention
- renewed military conflict between Russia and Georgia
- an outbreak of military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, possibly over Nagorno Karabakh
And some non-military threats:
- heightened political instability and sectarian violence in Nigeria
- political instability in Venezuela surrounding the October 2012 elections or post-Chavez succession
- political instability in Kenya surrounding the August 2012 elections
- an intensification of political instability and violence in Libya
- violent election-related instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
- political instability/resurgent ethnic violence in Kyrgyzstan
I don’t mean to suggest in any way that the military is irrelevant to these “non-military” threats. But it is not the only tool needed to meet these contingencies, or even to meet the military ones. And if you begin thinking about preventive action, which is what the CFR unit that publishes this material does, there are clearly major non-military dimensions to what is needed to meet even the threats that take primarily military form.
And for those who read this blog because it publishes sometimes on the Balkans, please note: the region are nowhere to be seen on this list of 30 priorities for the United States.
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