Tag: Energy
Diplomacy needed to restore security for all
If you haven’t seen it already, the interviews above with Wendy Sherman and Vali Nasr strike me as eminently level headed. Bottom lines: negotiations no longer, regime change unlikely, more and escalating war, Iran will press ahead to get nuclear weapons.
Regional implications
They don’t deal with the regional implications, except for mentioning Saudi denunciation of Israel for the attack on the “brotherly” Islamic Republic of Iran. But Gulf Arab sympathy with Iran will not go much further. The Saudis and the other Gulf monarchies will not be unhappy to see Iran’s nuclear program decimated. Turkey is likewise opposed to the Israeli attack, but it too was uncomfortable with Iran’s nuclear progress.
Perhaps the clearest sign of the regional reaction is what won’t happen. There will be no oil embargo or other concerted action. Improvement of relations with Israel will stall, but that’s about as far as things will go. If Iran were to have serious military success against Israel, things might be different. But with its air defenses ineffective and mostly destroyed, that isn’t likely to happen. And Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu isn’t the only regional leader who would like to see the Islamic Republic collapse.
Impact on the US and Europe
Oil prices are up 7%, but at $72 or so still below where they were 6 months ago and stabilizing. That is well within the realm of tolerable in both Europe and the US. Only if Israel attacks Iran’s oil production facilities will the price jump further into the painful range. That’s one reason the Israelis haven’t done it. Besides, if they want regime change it would be a mistake to hamper the new regime financially.
The increase to $72 will give Russia some extra rubles, but not a whole lot. In the rest of Europe, consumers will see only small percentage increases, as energy supplies are heavily taxed. Even in the US, lax market conditions mean little serious increase for now.
Iran and Russia are now military allies who supply each other with weapons. Tehran may find it more difficult, or perhaps just less desirable, to supply drones and ammunition to Moscow. Russia’s military production is already stretched tight and won’t be able to help Iran much.
President Trump is cheerleading for the Israelis now, after having tried unsuccessfully to prevent their attack on Iran. That will bring unwanted attention to US troops and travelers in the Middle East. It may also precipitate incidents inside the US. If Israel gets into trouble, the Americans will need to provide more assistance. But that seems unlikely.
The balance of power
The Israelis have enfeebled Iran. Hamas is in a cage. Hezbollah is decimated. The Houthis are still active, but on a minimal scale. Iran itself has lost its air force, its air defenses, much of its senior military leadership, key scientists and engineers. Tehran’s only quick route to restoring deterrence is nuclear weapons. If they can, they will.
That will incentivize Turkey and Saudi Arabia to follow suit. Egypt won’t want to be left behind. The Israelis already have nukes. A nuclear Middle East is not a secure Middle East. You can hope nothing bad will happen, but hope is not a policy. Only tough-minded diplomacy can restore security to all.
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Havoc is no way to run a country
President Trump’s freeze on government grants and contracts is already wrecking havoc in my world. I’m not, even indirectly, the intended recipient of any frozen funds. But organizations I know and appreciate are laying off personnel, stiffing suppliers, and disrupting their programs.
This is loony. If this lasts 90 days, it will create economic havoc and even cause serious health problems, since Medicaid is affected. Longer will generate recession. Trump inherited a thriving economy. He is now imploding it.
A Federal judge yesterday afternoon froze the freeze, but only temporarily. No doubt this lawless Administration will continue to not make good on many disbursements. Then it will wait for the courts to rule and appeal each decision that goes against Trump.
Why?
The Administration has several reasons for this churlish behavior. It say it wants expenditure aligned with Trump’s priorities. Things don’t work that way. Congress gets to appropriate funds. It is the President’s responsibility to execute what the Congress wants. Trump’s effort to freeze appropriated funds for Ukraine was the cause of his first impeachment. It’s not a lesson he wants to learn.
What are Trump’s priorities? Cutting expenditure is one of them. That will make room for extension of the tax cuts he got approved in a Republican Congress in 2017. They helped mainly the wealthy, including people like himself. But they did not deliver economic benefits.
The idea behind this debacle is not only to cut government expenditure. It’s to shift whatever remains. Trump has already spoken warmly about funding manned flight to Mars and a missile defense shield for the US. He wants to buy Greenland. His “drill baby drill” motto is aimed at providing energy to satisfy the voracious appetite of artificial intelligence software. Trump is a sucker for high-profile national prestige projects that will put money in his billionaire friends’ pockets. He figures they will also bring him attention and adulation.
Disaster awaits
Quite the contrary. Trump’s tax cuts and prestige projects are on the road to national ruin. Trump has no idea what the government does and how it enables the economy to grow. Trillion-dollar cuts, which is what he promised, are nowhere to be found without causing serious economic pain.
The prestige projects are not so hot either.
The Israeli missile defense he wants for the US has an effective range of less than 50 miles.
Denmark isn’t selling Greenland, though it is willing to talk about security as well as development of its resources.
Renewable sources of electricity are now competitive with fossil fuels.
It will be hard to find investors to expand drilling dramatically, especially as the US is already net energy independent. Courtesy of Joe Biden.
Manned flight to Mars is a boondoggle for Elon Musk. There is nothing that robots can’t do better than human beings on Mars. They also don’t get bored on a 9 month voyage (one way).
Kamala Harris had it right:
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Stevenson’s army, April 26
– US will reassure South Korea over nuclear weapons, says WSJ. More background from NYT.
-Speaker McCarthy changed the debt bill to appease members favoring ethanol and set rule avoiding amendments except for one.
– Lawfare reviews book on broken promises to Ukraine over nukes.
– WaPo tells how to build a SCIF.
– USA Today depicts Us evacuations from Sudan.
-Axios discloses Cyber Command/CISA secret operations [scroll to second story]
-Some in DOD happy at Tucker Carlson’s firing.
– US helped Guaido escape to Florida
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 23
I am back from a week in Doha when I wasn’t posting, and Charlie is back from a few days away:
Back at my desktop and partway through the accumulated newspapers, here are some links.
– Stimson has a bunch of reports. I especially liked the “Chimera of Technological Superiority” paper.
– Lots of Iraq reflections [today is the 20th anniversary of the start of the US war]. Reporter John Walcott was right. As was Jim Fallows.
– A Marine calls for a more family friendly military personnel system
– SAIS prof Ed Joseph sees a Kosovo deal.
– US News said US intell helped India against China.
– Fred Kaplan assesses the Xi-Putin summit. WaPo notes the absence of a pipeline deal.
– Two views on US aid to Ukraine: surprising success or much too slow.
– NYT analyzes DeSantis foreign policy.
– Max Boot sees return to 1930s GOP foreign policy.
– RollCall notes Biden’s high success rate with Congress.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 14
– NYT says Ukraine order for aid groups to leave Bakhmut may be prelude to its own withdrawal.
– WaPo says US has warned Ukraine of problems sustaining aid levels.
– Politico says US won’t send ATACMs because of US inventory shortages.
– Moldova says Russia planned coup.
– Ian Bremmer doubts US sabotaged Nordstream 2.
– Fred Kaplan explains new search for balloons.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 8
-WaPo reports on China’s vast surveillance programs-
-China’s balloon program was reported last year.
-WSJ reports China now has more ICBM launchers than US, though many are empty.
-SASC Chairman Reed says Ukraine has more urgent needs than F16s
–Russia threatens expulsions of US officials
-FT says Iran is now shipping Russian oil.
-Axios says US asked Israel & PA to “pause” actions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
– In WOTR, former student urges “learning culture”
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