Tag: European Union
The 2013 vintage in the peace vineyard
2013 has been a so-so vintage in the peace vineyard.
The Balkans saw improved relations between Serbia and Kosovo, progress by both towards the European Union and Croatian membership. Albania managed a peaceful alternation in power. But Bosnia and Macedonia remain enmired in long-running constitutional and nominal difficulties, respectively. Slovenia, already a NATO and EU member, ran into financial problems, as did Cyprus. Turkey‘s long-serving and still politically dominant prime minister managed to get himself into trouble over a shopping center and corruption.
The former Soviet space has likewise seen contradictory developments: Moldova‘s courageous push towards the EU, Ukraine‘s ongoing, nonviolent rebellion against tighter ties to Russia, and terrorist challenges to the Sochi Winter Olympics. Read more
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A good year for Kosovo, big challenges ahead
I did this piece for the New Year’s edition of Kosova Sot, which was scheduled to publish it today:
2013 was a good year for Kosovo. It reached an important agreement with Serbia, got a green light from the EU for stabilization and association talks with Brussels, and conducted good elections on its whole territory for the first time since independence in 2008. These are not spectacular achievements, but they point in the right direction: an increasingly normal state with a future in the European Union.
What stands in the way? Kosovo is still not sovereign in vital two dimensions. One is the military dimension: it lacks an army and other ways of defending itself. The other is the rule of law dimension: it lacks the capacity to enforce the law on the whole territory and with respect to everyone.
The army is not an immediate problem, as the NATO-led KFOR provides territorial security. But KFOR will only be around for a few more years. Pristina needs to devote some quality time to working out what the major challenges to its security will be over the next 5-10 years and how it can respond effectively. Read more
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The handwriting on the wall
The European Council at the level of heads of state and government decided Friday that accession negotiations with Serbia will open formally January 21. This marks an important advance in Serbia’s transition from a thuggish autocracy under Slobodan Milosevic to an increasingly open and democratic society 14 years later. The process of meeting European Union standards and gaining admission will likely take another decade, as Croatia’s accession did. It will be a hard slog. But many of the benefits and costs of EU membership occur even before formal accession. Serbia can expect ample funding to pay for the adjustment process.
This puts Serbia more or less in the middle of the pack in the Balkans “regatta” for EU membership. Slovenia and Croatia are already EU members, Montenegro is in the process of negotiating accession, Macedonia is already a candidate and awaits only resolution of its dispute with Greece over its name to start accession negotiations, Albania awaits candidate status, Bosnia and Herzegovina has concluded a Stabilization and Association Agreement (a prelude to candidacy) and Kosovo is still negotiating one. But Serbia has particular weight in the Balkans: it is geographically central, played an important role for the better part of a century in Yugoslavia and is still demographically and economically a relative heavyweight, despite a greying population and a stalled economy. Read more
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A decent Syrian election: result, not prelude
Jimmy Carter and Robert Pastor propose an election to resolve Syria’s civil war. They suggest three principles that would have to be accepted as preconditions for negotiating the war’s end:
● Self-determination: The Syrian people should decide on the country’s future government in a free election process under the unrestricted supervision of the international community and responsible nongovernmental organizations, with the results accepted if the elections are judged free and fair;
● Respect: The victors should assure and guarantee respect for all sectarian and minority groups; and
● Peacekeepers: To ensure that the first two goals are achieved, the international community must guarantee a robust peacekeeping force.
And they spell out first steps: Read more
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The end is nigh, once again
2013 is ending with a lot of doom and gloom:
- South Sudan, the world’s newest state, is suffering bloodletting between political rivals, who coincide with its two largest tribes (Dinka and Nuer).
- The Central African Republic is imploding in an orgy of Christian/Muslim violence.
- North Korea is risking internal strife as its latest Kim exerts his authority by purging and executing his formally powerful uncle.
- China is challenging Japan and South Korea in the the East China Sea.
- Syria is in chaos, spelling catastrophe for most of its population and serious strains for all its neighbors.
- Nuclear negotiations with Iran seem slow, if not stalled.
- Egypt‘s military is repressing not only the Muslim Brotherhood but also secular human rights advocates.
- Israel and Palestine still seem far from agreement on the two-state solution most agree is their best bet.
- Afghanistan‘s President Karzai is refusing to sign the long-sought security agreement with the United States, putting at risk continued presence of US troops even as the Taliban seem to be strengthening in the countryside, and capital and people are fleeing Kabul.
- Al Qaeda is recovering as a franchised operation (especially in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and North Africa), even as its headquarters in Pakistan has been devastated.
- Ukraine is turning eastward, despite the thousands of brave protesters in Kiev’s streets.
The Economist topped off the gloom this week by suggesting that the current international situation resembles the one that preceded World War I: a declining world power (then Great Britain, now the US) unable to ensure global security and a rising challenger (then Germany now China). Read more
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Where do you find free cheese?
In what may be the biggest auction since Moscow and Washington vied for influence in various third world countries during the Cold War, Ukraine (pop: 45 million) is attracting some hefty bids. Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday upped the ante: he plunked down $15 billion to buy potentially worthless Ukrainian government bonds and cut the price of Russian natural gas (by what I figure is one third). At the same time, he said he wasn’t insisting on Ukraine joining his Eurasian customs union. He figures the European Union won’t be willing to match that.
That does not mean “game over,” because the demonstrators are still in Maidan calling for President Yanukovich to sign an association agreement with the EU, one that Catherine Ashton is claiming will not hurt Russia’s interests in Ukraine. It would open Ukrainian markets and force its producers to adjust, which is why Yanukovich is asking for another 20 billion euros (per year!) from Brussels. I suppose he may still get some substantial fraction of that, provided he didn’t make the mistake of promising Putin he would not sign with the EU. The parliamentary opposition is threatening to block the Russian deal, prompting the choicist comment I’ve heard on the situation: Read more
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