Tag: European Union
Bosnia in the slow lane
I did this interview earlier in the week for Bedrudin Brljavac of the Andalous Agency in Sarajevo. I gather it has caused a bit of a sensation in Bosnia, so I am publishing the English original here:
1. Recently some prominent Bosnian experts and scholars have argued that the US has started “process of distancing” from Bosnia since Bosnian politicians over the last years could not agree on a common future of the country. In your opinion, is the US distancing itself from Bosnia?
DPS: Yes. Washington regards Bosnia and Herzegovina as primarily the EU’s responsibility now. It also welcomes Turkish interest in Bosnia. The question of Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is still one Washington would get concerned about, if it were threatened.
2. If not, since Bosnian politicians over the last ten years or more could not agree on a common future of the country and necessary reforms regarding the country’s constitution. As some scholars argue, will now the US administration intervene in diplomatic sense and bring about changes in Bosnia’s constitution?
DPS: No. That’s up to the Bosnians now. The U.S. might try to help create favorable conditions for constitutional reform, but it won’t seek to impose changes.
3. Also, over the last two-three years some research and scholars as well stressed that there is a possibility of disintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina due to years-long deadlock and ethnic tensions. Do you thing that such a state of affairs can happen in the future? Will the country move towards deeper integration or disintegration?
DPS: Washington won’t let Bosnia come apart. But deeper integration depends on the Bosnians themselves.
4. And would an international community allow disintegration of Bosnia since it would dramatically destabilize not only Bosnia but a whole region?
DPS: The international community would not allow disintegration.
5. Although Bosnian politicians are to a large extent responsible for the deadlock and political problems in the country still it is for sure that an international community is responsible as well. In your opinion, to what extent is international community, especially the US and EU, is guilty for the Bosnian political fatigue?
DPS: The international community gave Bosnia the Dayton constitution, which is certainly part of the problem. But that doesn’t mean we have to solve the problem, or even could if we wanted to. Americans certainly feel that they’ve given Bosnia its share of their time and attention. Today they have many more pressing problems.
That said, I think Washington, Berlin and Zagreb could together do a great deal of create conditions in which the Bosnians would be able to solve their problems. The EU accession process will play an important role in giving Bosnians the right incentives.
6. Since almost all the countries from the Western Balkans move forward on their path to the EU is it possible that Bosnia will in some foreseeable future stay isolated and on the margins of the EU?
DPS: Yes. There are no free passes to the EU. Bosnia will have to meet the membership criteria in order to get in. It is already far behind its neighbors in the regatta. Montenegro, Serbia and Macedonia all have prospects to enter the EU before Bosnia. Even Kosovo might. If Bosnians are uncomfortable with that idea, they need to elect governments that will accelerate their own preparations for the EU.
7. In the aftermath of elections held in Kosovo, do you think that holding an elections was one new strategic step from Pristina on its path to genuine independence at a global arena?
DPS: Yes, the elections were an important step. But they do not complete the process. There is still a good deal of progress to be made in implementing the Belgrade/Pristina agreements and in normalizing their relations. That will require diplomatic recognition and exchange of ambassadors, which I hope will happen much sooner than most people think. It is really meaningless for Belgrade to continue to refuse recognition when it has accepted Kosovo’s constitutional framework as the foundation for law and law enforcement in the entire territory.
8. After years of international intervention in the Balkans now its seems like war and ethnic conflicts are behind us. Still, ethnic polarisation is widespread in many countries and inter-ethnic reconciliation and dialogue are rare occurences. Do you think that wars and conflicts can happen in the Balkans in the years ahead?
DPS: I don’t think anyone has either the capability or the desire to created the kind of mess the Balkans saw in the 1990s. Many countries have ethnic polarization and tension, including the US. Democracies learn to deal with these problems in the political arena. War does not work well as a solution.
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Giving pause
Nuclear talks in Geneva with Iran ended without an agreement and will reconvene November 20. The P5+1 (that’s US, UK, France, China, Russia+Germany) are mostly exuding confidence that an agreement can be reached. The talks did not break down, they paused. What blocked agreement? Reuters reports:
Diplomats said the main stumbling blocks included the status of Iran’s Arak heavy-water reactor of potential use in making bomb-grade plutonium, the fate of Iran’s stockpile of higher-enriched uranium – both acute issues for France – and the extent of relief from trade sanctions demanded by Tehran.
The first two are critical issues for the P5+1. Their purpose is to prevent Iran from accumulating all the material (either highly enriched uranium or plutonium) it needs for a quick or undetected sprint to build nuclear weapons. The third is Iran’s main concern. It desperately needs sanctions relief for its battered economy.
Criticizing from the sidelines is Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, who wants Iran’s ability to produce plutonium and highly enriched uranium destroyed completely and sanctions lifted only when that ambition is fulfilled. His hostility to an agreement that delivers anything less appears to have motivated France’s hard line in Geneva. While the press is treating this intransigence as a surprise, French President Francois Hollande is on the record saying: Read more
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Belgrade and Pristina need to work together
Radio Free Europe tells me the Kosovo municipal election went badly today in the north: voting materials were destroyed at three polling stations, turnout was low and intimidation was high, with one Serb candidate attacked yesterday. The observers of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) withdrew and polls closed early.
This is too bad, even if unsurprising. Assignment of responsibility for what went wrong will have to await investigations of what happened, but it is clear enough that both Belgrade and Pristina have a problem. The organized criminal groups in northern Kosovo, supported by nationalist hardliners and elements in the Serbian security services, are able to defy both Belgrade’s desire to see smooth implementation of the EU-brokered April agreement as well as Pristina’s desire to see its institutions recognized as the only legitimate ones in the northern part of the country. Read more
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Tomorrow’s Kosovo elections
| Milan Marinkovic writes from Nis, about Sunday’s municipal elections in Kosovo:Given the importance of the forthcoming local elections in Kosovo for the ongoing normalization between Kosovo and Serbia and, consequently, both countries’ European perspective, it is clear that Brussels, Priština and Belgrade all want the process to succeed. One measure of success will be voter turnout, which all sides hope to be as high as possible. Another measure relates to whether the elections will pass in a peaceful atmosphere.
As for voter turnout, politicians can do their best to encourage people to vote, but cannot force them to do so. Everyone has their own right to decide for themselves whether or not to cast a ballot. In the case of those who will eventually boycott the vote, the key question is how many of them will abstain because they really don’t want to participate in the election (regardless of anyone’s personal reasons), and how many due to fear of Serb extremists like those seen in the Youtube video below. The latter concern logically raises the question of what kind of and how large security presence will be needed to avoid any possible incident during the elections and thus keep the voters safe. Read more |
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My morning mail from Belgrade
My morning mail brought this from the Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies in Belgrade, in reference to the upcoming municipal elections in Kosovo, including for the first time under Pristina authority in the north:
CEAS POLICY BRIEF
YOUR FACE SOUNDS FAMILIAR
REGARDING THE USE OF PUBLIC PROPERTY IN THE “CLEANSING” OF NORTHERN KOSOVO OF ELECTION MATERIAL, AND SOME OTHER SECURITY CHALLENGES AND THREATS TO THE UPCOMING LOCAL ELECTIONS IN KOSOVO
CENTER FOR EURO – ATLANTIC STUDIES, NOVEMBER 2013.
The Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies (CEAS) calls upon Serbian officials to pay attention and state their position on the use of public property in the action of “cleansing Northern Kosovo” from election materials for the upcoming local elections in Kosovo, which has been carried out on October 28, 2013 by “self-organized citizens”, as stated in the video available now for a couple of days already on the internet channel YouTube:
In the video, among other, the use of cranes for trimming trees and repairing traffic lights is obvious, both of which are hardly private property. The speed and professionalism in which individuals in the video are painting over the election materials with spray paint is also worrying. Read more
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When will Macedonia enter the EU?
I of course have no idea, but I did this interview for the Macedonian daily Vecer, which published it yesterday. Maybe it sheds some light on the question, if not the answer:
Q. After the European Council did not adopt the Commission’s recommendation to begin negotiations with Macedonia last year, you recommended that “the bicycle must move, so as not to fall,” warning that the enlargement process may be terminated if it is slow. Again, Macedonia, for the fifth time had a recommendation for starting accession negotiations with the EU. Do you expect that the Council in December will finally accept it and will grant Macedonia a date?
A. No, not unless there is a solution of the “name” problem. Greece seems determined to continue to block a date without that. But the High Level Accession Dialogue (HLAD) seems to be providing an alternate route that can take Macedonia a long way forward in the process. That’s a good thing.
Q. Your position that Macedonia should begin negotiations under the interim reference from 1995 is well known, a solution that is acceptable for Macedonia, inoffensive for Greece and Bulgaria and supported by the Hague verdict, but Athens does not comply. Is it possible that Athens and Sofia change something in their perceptions before December and accept this solution as a compromise? Read more
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