Tag: European Union
Asymmetric warfare and the great powers
I spoke last night at the Alexander Hamilton Society at Johns Hopkins’ Homewood campus. Here is what I said:
I have two points to make: the first concerns proxy forces, which are becoming the rule rather than the exception; the second concerns asymmetric or hybrid warfare, which is taking on new guises. But none of it is really new—warriors have always sought to strike an enemy where he is weak and to remove their own forces from danger.
Increased use of proxy military forces to enable great powers to duel with each other without engaging directly with their own military forces is already happening in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Ukraine. Iranian-trained and equipped militias, Turkey’s Turkoman and Islamist allies, America’s Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Lebanese Hizbollah, the Houthis, Haftar’s forces, and Russia’s mercenaries and Ukrainian proxies are playing central roles in contests that the U.S. or its Gulf allies are engaged in, mostly as adversaries against Russia or Iran.
In an era of great power competition, the inclination will be not to worry too much about our own proxies’ internal governance or abuse of human rights any more than we did during the Cold War. Realists and would-be autocrats will see that as idealistic claptrap. But governance matters to some of us. Let me remind you of what Alexander Hamilton said, in a strikingly different context, in the Federalist Papers:
Vigor of government is essential to the security of liberty.
It is hard to support Ukraine to win a military confrontation with Russia if Ukraine is a kleptocracy, which is why it was right for Joe Biden to back firing of a corrupt prosecutor and wrong for the Trump Administration to regret his firing, while still claiming to be against corruption. It is also hard to support UAE and Saudi forces that have committed crimes of war in Yemen, or switch to support Khalifa Haftar in Libya or Bashar al Assad in Syria. Domestic and international support for odious allies is difficult to muster. One of the reasons the Americans have backed the Syrian Democratic Forces is the Kurds’ relatively decent governance, but of course we ignore their PKK credentials and the PKK’s terrorist acts inside Turkey.
Let me turn to asymmetric warfare. Adversaries have agency. Asymmetric warfare is the product of their ingenuity. America is hard to fight on land or sea. Since the purpose of warfare is political, better to fight it where expensive armor and submarines count for less: among the people.
War amongst the people is taking on new meaning with the rise of geopolitical challengers. In Bosnia and Kosovo, we saw the use of human shields, ethnic cleansing, and genocide. We are now seeing the weaponizing of masses of people on a giant scale: Assad’s effort to drive one million IDPs from Idlib to the Turkish border and beyond with Russian backing is intended to rid his territory of people he thinks are opponents and break Turkey’s will in occupying parts of Syria. Human shields have become human spears. Turkey is using people as well, though in a less deadly way: by allowing refugees to cross into Greece, it is pressuring the Europe Union for more humanitarian assistance.
The Russian satellite states South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia as well as Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine likewise aim at political results: to make the parent states ungovernable and block their progress towards the West.
Hybrid warfare using other means other than population movements and puppet states is also on the rise. In the Balkans, the Russians are aiming at destabilization without spending much. They’ve tried assassination, cyberattacks, mass mobilization, illicit political financing, and social media. The U.S. is not above using all those tools as well. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Stuxnet, the color revolutions, financing of NGOs and political training, and the State Department’s more than 120 acknowledged Twitter accounts (not to mention the covert ones) may look to you and me like good causes, but they look like potent weapons to America’s adversaries.
We may not be headed into a Cold War with any single adversary, but we are certainly heading towards a geopolitical competition that will entail use of all the means available in an environment of shifting alliances and uncertain outcomes.
But in the end, it may not be state adversaries that bring us down via proxies, weaponizing people, and hybrid warfare. Something much smaller may put on display our own inadequate government services. It shouldn’t escape notice that Xi Jinping, Ali Khamenei, and Donald Trump are all at risk from the political and economic consequences of a virus. Defending populations from epidemics is not a new governance requirement, but rather a longstanding one. This, too, is war amongst the people, who might just demand some minimal competence and truthfulness in their governance.
Remember, again, Hamilton:
Vigor of government is essential to the security of liberty.
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Stevenson’s army, March 4
-NYT says Iran has enough fuel for a bomb.
– Trump talks with a Taliban leader, while the US strikes at Taliban.
– David Ignatius warns of trouble in Jordan.
– EU supports Greek efforts to seal border.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 2
– The Afghan peace deal may break down over prisoner exchanges.
– The Russo-Turkish understanding over Syria is breaking down. And Greece is sending troops to its border.
– The effort to find a new Iraqi premier has broken down.
-North Korea’s missile test moratorium has ended.
– A federal judge has ruled that Ken Cuccinelli’s acting appoint is illegal under the Vacancy Act — and also that two of his decisions are nullified. That’s a consequence of using Actings improperly.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Yesterday’s cold, today’s warmth
Kosovo’s Ambassador to the United States, Vlora Citaku, has published this personal reflection on her country’s 12th birthday on her Facebook page (republished here with her concurrence):
It was a cold February and I had a secret.
I distinctly remember that cold February day. All of us remember it. It was frigid, but the heat in the atmosphere could already be felt for a few days. I was even more tense than the air itself, because I had a secret that I could not share with anyone. Not even my closest family members.
I was leading part of the processes that were related to the Declaration of Independence but no one was to know about these processes. The press conference for international media had to be prepared, but no one was to know what the conference was being called for. The security preparations had to be made, but not even the police were to know what they would be protecting, and when they would be protecting it.
I had a big secret in my heart, and sometimes I would chuckle to myself because of the news that warmed my heart. The “Newborn” monument was being prepared, but no one was to know when we would give birth to the newborn.
We had reason to be joyful, and even more reason to be prepared for the worst. Serbia was ruled by a nationalist with a nefarious agenda. There were warnings of possible violence and electricity shutdowns. The verbal aggression had reached its peak.
Nonetheless, it was clear that we would not prolong the process since every other avenue, from the negotiations in Vienna to the visits of the troika (Ishinger, Wisner, and Borcan Haracenko) had been exhausted. The enemies of independence had nowhere left to run. There will be independence – said the wise [former Finnish] President Ahtisaari – but it will be supervised until it is proven that minorities and the whole society will be better off and have more power because of the creation of the state, not less.
As an MP, I knew that I would be one of the elected representatives of the people (not the provisional self-governance institutions) who would declare independence. We would complete the statehood of our nation. The Declaration of Independence had to be written in secret, with calligraphy that was noticeably rushed at the end, because the entire population of Kosovo was in a rush. We could not withstand another minute of
delay for that which was pursued for an entire century.
Since the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, since the time of Isa Boletini, since the time of my ancestor Shote Galica, since the time of Shaban Polluza, since the time of the partizans who fought Nazism but were betrayed by the Communist Party. Since the time of the establishment of the University of Prishtina, since the time of dissidents, incarcerations, and false hopes. Since my time as a member of the “generation of the
republic” who were left without schools, poisoned, and ignored by Europe.
We could not withstand another minuted, since the time of our armed resistance, the time of the soldiers whom I followed step by step as a translator for the largest international media, the time when we faced genocide against civilians perpetrated by the century-old occupier.
It was cold on that February day, colder than ever. But I had a secret in my heart that warmed my soul.
To be completely frank, I cried just as much as I laughed on that day. Precisely because of the life that we lived, the sacrifice of my mother and father, the sacrifice of my friends. The sacrifice of the elders and that of the most vulnerable.
These are the feelings that I remember today, 12 years later. Though climate change has not doubt made February warmer and snowless, my feelings resurface just the same when I remember how we became a country and how steep a price we paid for our right to exist as such. A century of pain.
However, as the saying goes – no pain, no gain.
And gain we did, much more than many other oppressed peoples. We won our Declaration of Independence, and the declaration was recognized by the world’s biggest democracies.
It was recognized with a new map in an elementary school by Sarkozy of France, the France of the revolution that brought about human rights as a fundamental concept. It was recognized by the Italy of humanist renaissance that placed the human at the center of the universe. It was recognized by Germany, the global example of rebirth after the catastrophe of the Second World War. It was recognized by the United Kingdom. And it
was recognized by the United States of America, to whom we will always be indebted.
A few years ago, an American diplomat confessed to me that it was not only Hashim Thaci who had to be convinced to delay the declaration of independence by a few months, from the end of 2007 to 2008. His resistance was great, but it was matched by that of President Bush who told his diplomats “I have promised independence to a people, and independence I will deliver”.
Twelve years later I reckon, many things could have been done better. The expectations of people that we would instantly become Switzerland, and everything would improve, that we would have jobs and wealth, were broken by the burdens of transition.
However, the same burdens broke many peoples across all of Eastern Europe after the fall of communism. Unfortunately, not rarely, and even criminally, not everyone had the same opportunities for growth in our new country. The solidarity, love, and boundless happiness we had for each other did not last forever.
Nevertheless, love must not be replaced by hatred. Independence is final, and will never be called into question. I am saddened to hear when some still doubt this. When some deny it. When they disrespect our flag. But today, I will not write for them.
It was cold on February 17th, 2008. But it was also the warmest day in a century.
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RS in doubt
Delvin Kovač of Vijesti.ba asked questions; I answered:
Representatives of Republika Srspska (RS) at the level of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) will suspend their participation in decision-making on any matter within the jurisdiction of the BiH authorities until a new Law on the Constitutional Court of BiH is adopted, with no foreign judges.
This position was taken at yesterday’s meeting of RS officials, institutions and representatives of parliamentary parties based in that BiH entity, after the decision of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which declared unconstitutional the Law on Agricultural Land of the Entities of RS.
How do you see this newly created political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Seems like Bosnia remains politically deadlocked…
A: Indeed, deadlocked due to the Dayton peace accords, which left gaps and ambiguities that the RS exploits.
Q: Milorad Dodik said: “Either political leaders will come to a new agreement on what the Constitutional Court should look like, or Bosnia will be no more.” Is this a serious threat to Bosnia’s as well as Balkan’s peace and stability/security?
A: It certainly is, but it is not new. Dodik has been threatening the state for years. Were I a citizen, I would be concerned.
The real question is not whether the state should exist. It is whether RS should continue to exist, if it continues to make the state dysfunctional.Dodik also said that the RS National Assembly will adopt a decision to remove Serbian judges from the Constitutional Court of BiH. Can a lower level of government impose it’s decisions to a State?
I am not a lawyer, but it is my understanding that the RS Assembly can name judges to the Court. I don’t know if can remove them. Nor do I know what happens once their seats are empty. I imagine the Court could continue to function without them.
Q: Dodik also said he would inform president of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić about the newly created situation, adding that he would ask for Vučić’s “understanding”. What do you think about that?
A: I think it amounts to Dodik demonstrating once again his disloyalty to the state. Vučić needs to read Dodik the riot act, which in English means telling him that he has to stop the nonsense.
The EU accession process is becoming more conditioned. Brussels should make it clear to Vučić that getting Dodik to stop undermining the functionality of the state in Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the conditions for Serbian progress in negotiating accession.
Q: We now have HDZ BiH and it’s leader Dragan Čović blocking the formation of the Federation government by imposing changes to the Election Law on one side, as well as SNSD and it’s leader Milorad Dodik blocking the work of state instutitions on the other side. How do you comment on that?
A: Bosnia and Herzegovina is suffering because Dayton ensured the persistence in power of ethnic nationalists who conducted the 1992/95 war and remain uncommitted to the state. Until that is fixed, such blockages will remain frequent. Ultimately, it is up to the citizens whether they vote to undo the legal and constitutional provisions that make governance so difficult.
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Dear Albin,
First and foremost: congratulations on your election win and your successful efforts to form a coalition! While I still haven’t seen your government program, I would like to offer some thoughts on the problems you face and how to deal with them.
You now face the daunting challenges of leading a country that is less than two decades from a devastating war and only 12 years from independence. Kosovo lacks universal recognition and struggles to get treated fairly by the European Union, which has withheld the visa waiver, includes five non-recognizing countries, and blames Kosovo more than Serbia for the current stagnation of talks between Belgrade and Pristina. While Kosovo’s economy has grown pretty well, it is still plagued by poverty, corruption, political favoritism, and nepotism. Its politics are rough, its state less than mature, and some of its Serb minority as well as Belgrade still unreconciled.
There will be no instant solutions, but there are some things you can do that will set the right course.
My understanding is that the EU was prepared to fulfill its visa waiver promise if Kosovo would suspend its tariffs on Serbian goods in exchange for Serbia ending its de-recognition campaign and allowing Kosovo into international organizations like Interpol and UNESCO. This was a good deal that your predecessor rejected for domestic political reasons. The start of your mandate is the ideal time to suspend the tariffs, in exchange not only for the visa waiver and an end to the de-recognition campaign but also Serbian implementation of the several Pristina/Belgrade agreements, especially the one on energy.
Nothing you do will work well unless Kosovo’s economy continues to grow, preferably even faster than it has to date. I understand that your political movement Vetevendosje opposes privatization and is keen on state intervention in the economy and perhaps even a sovereign wealth fund. Some think the Trepca mining complex will be manna from heaven.
I doubt those are the directions in which you will find economic salvation. I’ve never seen a serious report on Trepca that was positive. The investments required to modernize the complex are big. Zinc and lead, its primary mineral deposits, are just not worth much on the market today. Kosovo’s growth in the future will depend far more on its business environment, which has not been improving as it should, and on its small and medium enterprises than on Trepca. You need entrepreneurs more than magnates, who too often turn into oligarchs.
You also need the state, by which I mean institutions that can guarantee continuity under the rule of law even as politics sweeps one government out and another one in. Kosovo has done pretty well in forming and developing some of those institutions. I would cite the Constitutional Court, the Kosovo Police, the Defense Ministry, the nascent Army, and the Foreign Ministry as good examples, but partly because I am more familiar with them than many of the other institutions. All however need more professionalism and parliamentary oversight if they are to meet European Union standards. Statebuilding is unglamorous, but vital.
Accession to NATO and the EU will, I trust, remain your strategic objective. You have some advantages over other aspiring states in the EU regatta. Kosovo’s press has been relatively free and its courts relatively independent, at least at the upper level. Your legislation has been EU-compliant since independence. Your main shortcoming is in implementation. You need to get much more serious about applying all the legislation you pass.
I am an enthusiast for EU membership and skeptical of propositions like the “mini-Schengen” proposal to eliminate borders among Serbia, Albania, and Macedonia as well as the recent agreement to open air service to Belgrade, which reiterates Serbia’s sovereignty claims and ignores far more important issues concerning control over air operations above Kosovo. Kosovo’s limited state capacity would have to be diverted from implementing the acquis communautaire in order to participate in mini-Schengen, which is one more regional effort to achieve many of the things that should have been achieved in the Regional Cooperation Council, the Belgrade/Pristina dialogue, the Central Europe Free Trade Area (CEFTA), and other fora.
Far more important is that you take the offensive in proposing things that would really matter to your country and shift the onus of refusing to Belgrade. Your Defense Minister and Army Chief of Staff should make themselves available to talk with their Serbian counterparts. You could propose that the Kosovo/Serbia border be demarcated as a technical exercise (which it is) even without Serbian recognition. I would like to see the Serbian Church’s property rights recognized, consistent with Kosovo’s constitution, on a unilateral basis: the Constitutional Court’s decision on church property in Decan/Decani needs to be implemented. It is vital that Serbs in Kosovo see and feel that the Kosovo state is prepared to treat them fairly.
The Europeans and Americans may pressure you to re-enter the dialogue with Belgrade sooner rather than later. I see no advantage to Kosovo in doing that before Serbia’s parliamentary election in April, as the internationals will want to get something for President Vucic that he can use to his advantage in his electoral campaign. Best to play hard to get, insist on a good deal, and be prepared to wait for the period immediately after the election, when Vucic will be at the peak of his power and able to deliver on things that will be well forgotten before the next Serbian election.
Albin: when we met 21 years ago, I was with the United States Institute of Peace on my first visit to Pristina and you were the right hand to the Kosovo thinker and undaunted activist, Adem Demaci, who has continued to be an inspiration to you in seeking to contribute to your country’s freedom and welfare. I did not imagine when we first met that you would become the prime minister of an independent Kosovo with aspirations to join NATO and the EU. That is an enormous privilege, which you have won with skill and determination. I wish you success. As my grandmother would say about anything new, even if it couldn’t be worn: “wear it in good health.” (trog gezunterheit).
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