Tag: European Union
Brexit in sign language
This sign language interpreter definitely merits the Saturday video spot:
If that put you in a good mood, don’t watch this, which leaves open the question of the Crown Prince’s involvement but details in words and pictures what is known about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
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Trump is a sore loser
President Trump has taken a beating over the past week. The Democrats have won control of the House of Representatives by a wider margin than originally thought. They are now approaching a 40-vote majority. The suburbs, Hispanics, Asians, and white college-educated women abandoned the Republicans in droves. The uptick of one or two Republican seats in the Senate enables Trump to continue getting judges and other high officials approved, but the House will be conducting oversight as never before and initiating budget bills the Administration won’t like.
The Democrats will also pass legislation they know won’t get past the Senate but will lay out their own agenda for 2020. First up will apparently be a bill protecting the right to vote, something the Republicans have been trying hard to suppress, as well as the voting system (from foreign interference). Access to health care and education as well as environmental protection are likely in the queue.
Then last weekend Trump went to Paris for the World War I centennial, where he declined a visit to a cemetery because of rain, refused to join the other allied heads of state in a walk up the Champs Elysees, and got scolded by his erstwhile friend President Macron for his attachment to nativist nationalism. He looked out of sorts and out of place in the events he did attend, except when smiling broadly at President Putin.
Back in the US, Trump failed to make the traditional 3.3 mile trip to Arlington Cemetery on Veterans’ Day. Instead he sulked in the White House and has stayed there since, tweeting criticism of forest management in California while its first responders were risking their lives fighting a giant forest fire and dozens of Californians were dying. To boot: the Federal government controls 98% of the forests in California, so if forest management is really the cause… But it isn’t: Trump said that just to please logging interests. The main cause is climate change, which has made California much drier and windier.
Trump has good reason to be worried. Rumor has it that Special Counsel Mueller is getting ready to charge Don Jr., his eldest son and confidante, with conspiracy against the United States by plotting to gain Russian assistance during the election campaign. That will put Trump in the unenviable position of either throwing his son under the bus or admitting what we all suspect: his son did it with his father’s knowledge and encouragement. Even if that indictment doesn’t happen, the Mueller investigation and oversight hearings in the House threaten to expose financial and other malfeasance in the Trump real estate empire. There is little doubt that Trump was laundering Russian oligarchs’ ill-gotten gains.
So Trump fired his racist Attorney General Sessions, who had recused himself from the Russia investigation and failed to prevent Mueller from exploring the financial angle, and replaced him with an “acting” AG who has publicly advocated hogtying the Special Counsel. This Matthew Whitaker was quickly shown to be so blatantly unqualified, and associated with dubious business dealings, that Trump claimed not to know him well.
Anything Whitaker does with respect to the Mueller investigation will no doubt lead to a subpoena to testify in Congress. Mueller, expecting the worst, I trust has prepared a dead man switch in the form of evidence and investigations by US attorneys (Federal prosecutors in the states) as well as state attorneys general. It is hard to turn off the multi-layered US justice system completely. That thought will redouble the President’s concerns.
To compound Trump’s problems, his wife instructed him in public this week to expel the deputy national security adviser from the White House staff. Mira Ricardel had offended the First Lady or her staff in some fashion on her recent trip to Africa. Trump obeyed. You can imagine how that made him feel.
Some will worry that Trump’s ugly mood may make him take military action. He is certainly not above trying to use the military to bolster his own cause, as he did in pointlessly deploying US troops to the Mexican border to counter a dwindling “caravan” of asylum-seekers more than a thousand miles away.
But real military action seems to be something he shies from. The one-off 2017 cruise missile retaliation in response to a Syrian chemical weapons attack seems to be his kind of thing. He has not initiated any sustained military action since coming to office. In the absence of compelling national security issues this Administration would find it hard to convince Congress or the American people it was a good thing to do.
What we’ve got is a president whose surprising good fortune in getting elected along with a Republican Congress has peaked. He is now facing stark political and judicial realities. Some presidents would respond with reassessment and renewed energy. Not this one. Donald Trump, for whom winning is everything, is a sore loser.
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A serious choice
This seems good for election day:
Best guesses are a Democratic win in the House, Republicans retaining the Senate. But if 2016 taught us anything it is not to depend on polling. Polls are heavily dependent on assumptions about turnout, which are particularly difficult this time around. There are lots of indications that more people will vote than usual in midterm elections.
What difference will it make? In foreign policy, the President has free rein. He can pretty much do as he likes, unless legislation constrains him. That is unlikely if the Democrats control only the House, not the Senate.
But there are some issues on which sentiment among both Republicans and Democrats in Congress is different from the White House’s inclinations. Support for NATO and understanding of the European Union, opposition to Russian malfeasance worldwide, sympathy for refugees, doubts about the Yemen war and North Korea, interest in bringing US troops home from Afghanistan and the Middle East, and support for open societies and free economies are all more evident in Congress than in the Administration. If they use their oversight responsibilities well, House Democrats could make common cause on at least some of these issues with like-minded Republicans. That would strengthen the professionals inside government and might lead to some modest course corrections.
But on other issues Democratic control of the House is unlikely to make much difference. They would have preferred that the US stay in the Iran nuclear deal, but they aren’t going to speak up, for fear of being tagged as pro-Iranian, against the renewed sanctions the Administration has imposed. Nor will Democrats strongly oppose tariffs, which some of the party’s traditional support base likes. Certainly China has few sympathizers among Democrats. Support for Israel among Democrats is strong, making it unlikely there will be strong dissent from Trump’s heavy lean against the Palestinians. The areas of bipartisan agreement on foreign policy are not as wide as once they were, but there are still some in which Trump can rely on the House Democrats to be uncritical.
Apart from the specific foreign policy issues, the significance of this midterm election lies in the choice of what kind of America its citizens want. In his pursuit of making America great again, President Trump has tried hard to sharpen the lines of difference between Democrats and Republicans, to appeal to racists, anti-Semites, and xenophobes, and to frighten Americans into voting for incumbents. They include people whose ideal is an America that treats dictators as friends, closes itself off from much of the world, treats even allies as threats, and arms itself to deal with a world in which no norms are the norm. The Democrats, while focusing mainly on domestic issues like education and health care, are projecting a more open and optimistic vision of an America more engaged diplomatically and ready to maintain and expand international norms and commitments.
This is a serious choice. Go vote.
PS: A friend sent this:
I write this on the verge of the 2018 by elections in the United States. I implore you to make this a repudiation of the divisive and anti-democratic tendencies of Trump. As many of you might know, I served 25 years in the US Army defending the Constitution that Trump flouts almost on a daily basis. His rants against the media reveals his distaste for the 1st Amendment (freedom of press and expression). His desire to repeal the 14th Amendment with an executive order shows his lack of knowledge about how Amendments evolve. His political theatre of sending US troops to the border area suggests he does not understand that they cannot engage in law and order enforcement as forbidden by the posse comitatus act of Congress. Most importantly, he has the instincts of a dictator and employs many of the same tactics as used by President Orban who has become an authoritarian leader of Hungary that has attained his power by turning segments of the nation against one another, racism and control of the press and justice system. With 16 years serving with the UN in Former Yugoslavia, I have witnessed first hand how such divisiveness and artificially induced hate of the “other” can destroy a nation.
Vote and repudiate Trump and his enablers.
PPS: Another friend sent this:
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Peace Picks: October 22 – 28
1. Completing Europe: Will Macedonia seize its moment? | Monday, October 22, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:15 pm | Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 2005 | Register Here
On September 30, Macedonians voted in a referendum that would rename the country North Macedonia and remove the key obstacle to NATO and European Union (EU) membership. A boycott effort, outside influences, and ambivalent results – more than 90 percent voting yes, but below 40 percent turnout – raise questions about what comes next.
Will the government in Skopje muster the constitutional majority required to adopt the changes called for in the Prespa Agreement it negotiated with Greece? If not, will the country face snap parliamentary elections? How does this influence the calculus in Greece ahead of its own difficult parliamentary vote on the agreement? What impact does this have on the region and prospects for future NATO and EU enlargement. What roles are the United States, Europe and Russia playing in all this?
Speakers
The Rt. Hon. Lord Robertson of Port Ellen
Former Secretary General of NATO
Lilica Kitanovska
Chief, VOA Macedonian Service
Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President, Programs and Strategy, Atlantic Council
2. Turmoil in Nicaragua: Is there an end in sight? | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 9:00 am – 11:00 am | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Since April 2018, Nicaragua has been rocked by street protests against the government of President Daniel Ortega. Amidst harsh measures that criminalize social protest, the government arrested over two dozen opposition activists and leaders on Sunday, October 14th, subsequently releasing them after an international outcry.
According to the OAS Inter-American Human Rights Commission, over 300 people have been killed, the majority of them anti-government demonstrators. A broad civic alliance consisting of the private sector, student, labor, and human rights groups, and intellectuals has demanded an end to the repression, the resignation of Ortega, and the holding of early elections. Attempts by the Catholic Church to mediate a dialogue have thus far failed.
Speakers
Cynthia J. Arnson
Director, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
Douglas Castro
Professor & Researcher, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Lesther Alemán
Student of Communications, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Jeancarlo López
Student of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Nicaragua
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Dr. Shelley McConnell
Associate Professor of Government
St. Lawrence University
3. Israel in a Turbulent Region: A Conversation with Ephraim Sneh | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Israel sits at the center of a region in the throes of several major challenges, including the situations in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon as well as the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Join the Wilson Center for a conversation with Ephraim Sneh, a long-time Israeli official and analyst of Israel’s foreign policy and the region at large. He will address these challenges as well as the state of U.S.-Israeli relations.
Speakers
Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center
Aaron David Miller
Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center
General (Ret.) Ephraim Sneh
Chairman, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, Netanya Academic College Former Cabinet Member and Knesset Member
4. On the Brink of Brexit: The United Kingdom, Ireland and Europe | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Brookings Institution | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The United Kingdom will leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. But as the date approaches, important aspects of the withdrawal agreement as well as the future relationship between the U.K. and EU, particularly on trade, remain unresolved. Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Northern Ireland, where the re-imposition of a hard border with Ireland could threaten a hard-fought peace. Scotland, which voted resoundingly against Brexit, has raised questions about the future of devolved governance arrangements in the U.K., while the independence question remains alive. As Robert Bosch Senior Fellow Amanda Sloat writes in her recent report “Divided kingdom: How Brexit is remaking the UK’s constitutional order,” “Brexit will alter not one but two unions: the European Union and the United Kingdom.”
On October 23, 2018, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a panel discussion on the Brexit endgame. It will examine what the decisions of the coming weeks could mean for the U.K., Ireland and Northern Ireland, Scotland, the European Union, and the United States. Sloat will be joined on the panel by Douglas Alexander, former U.K. Secretary of State for Scotland and Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs; Lucinda Creighton, former Irish Minister for European Affairs; and Sir Kim Darroch, British Ambassador to the United States. Edward Luce of the Financial Times will moderate.
Speakers
Thomas Wright
Director, Center on the United States and Europe
Amanda Sloat
Robert Bosch Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Douglas Alexander
Senior Fellow, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Chair, UNICEF UK
Lucinda Creighton
CEO, Vulcan Consulting
Sir Kim Darroch
British Ambassador to the United States, British Embassy
Edward Luce
Washington Columnist and Commentator, Financial Times
5. The Future of AMISOM | Wednesday, October 24, 2018 | 1:30 pm – 3:30 pm | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
A panel discussion addressing the evolution, challenges, and future of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Deployed in 2007 to counter the threat of al-Shabaab in Somalia, AMISOM remains the African Union’s most extensive and dangerous military intervention. Eleven years later, however, Somalia’s security challenges persist. As al-Shabaab continues to stage deadly attacks, questions linger regarding AMISOM’s transition, the commitment of its Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) and the ability of the Somali National Army to stand on its own.
The event will feature Paul D. Williams, and his recent book, Fighting for Peace in Somalia: A History and Analysis of the African Union Mission (AMISOM), 2007-2017, which offers a meticulous account of AMISOM since its deployment. Paul Williams will present insights from his book on the history and obstacles of AMISOM, and address how AMISOM’s funders and troop contributors envision its future. Amanda Dory, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, will then weigh in on potential avenues through which AMISOM could transition from Somalia.
Speakers
Paul D. Williams
Associate Director of the Security Policy Studies M.A. Program, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs
Amanda Dory
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense
Judd Devermont
Director, Africa Program
6. US Policy & The War in Yemen | Thursday, October 25, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:30 pm | Brookings Institute | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The war in Yemen is in its fourth year of unabating violence. What began as a power struggle within the government has now ensnared a population of nearly 30 million. With tens of thousands killed, millions displaced, and many more dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival, the state is on the brink of collapse
Yemen now constitutes one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world, in a large and impoverished country. Nonetheless, little discussion is devoted to how U.S. policy affects this disaster and what might be done to ease the dire conditions on the ground. The United States supports the war effort of the Saudi- and Emirati-led coalition in the war, fighting against Iranian-backed Houthis. The war will also have major implications for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its stability. Riyadh is America’s oldest ally in the region and Washington has important geopolitical interests at stake. In September, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo certified that the U.S. allies were working to reduce civilian casualties, reportedly overriding staff recommendations on this.
Speakers
Natan Sachs
Director, Center for Middle East Policy
Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy
Dafna Rand
Vice President for Policy and Research, Mercy Corps
Fatima Abo Alasrar
Senior Analyst, Arabia Foundation
Daniel L. Byman
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
7. Next Steps for US Strategy in Syria | Friday, October 26, 2018 | 12:00pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | 1201 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Hudson Institute will host a panel to assess U.S. policy in Syria. Panelists will consider how the Trump Administration’s new Syria strategy diverges from previous administrations’ and analyze how the new strategy intends to respond to outside influencers, particularly Russia, Iran, and the Islamic State, who continue to obstruct U.S. efforts within Syria.
Speakers
Mariam Jalabi
Representative, Syrian Opposition Coalition to the United Nations
Michael Doran
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Jonas Parello-Plesner
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Jomana Qaddour
Doctoral Candidate, Georgetown University Law Center
Former Senior Policy Analyst, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom
8. Prevent to Protect: From Counter-Radicalization to Disengagement | Friday, October 26, 2018 | 2:00pm – 3:00 pm | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Join Muriel Domenach, Secretary General of the French government’s Inter-ministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization (CIPDR), as she discusses France’s ongoing efforts to counter radicalization and violent extremism.
“Prevent to Protect,” the plan released by CIPDR in February 2018, offered 60 measures to refocus France’s policy of prevention around five key themes:
- Shielding individuals from radicalization
- Widening the detection and prevention network
- Understanding and preparing for developments in radicalization
- Training local stakeholders and assessing practices
- Tailoring disengagement schemes
After Ms. Domenach’s remarks, Seth G. Jones, Harold Brown Chair and Director of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, will host a moderated armchair discussion comparing and contrasting the French and American perspectives on the issues of returning foreign fighters, counter-narrative efforts, and building community resilience.
Speakers
Muriel Domenach
Secretary General, Interministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization
Seth G. Jones
Harold Brown Chair
Director, Transnational Threats Project
Senior Adviser, International Security Program
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You decide
Below are some comments on the results of Sunday’s Bosnian elections. But as a prelude I should note that almost no one in Washington is paying attention to them. America’s focus is elsewhere: on the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs, on military and economic competition from China, and on a fractured domestic polity headed for its own important elections November 6. The United States will want Bosnians to find their own solutions to their own political problems, within the context of a sovereign Bosnia and Herzegovina. Europeans and Americans may be able to help, but you have to decide how your country is to be governed.
Erdin Halimic of Sarajevo daily Dnevni Avaz asked questions. I answered:
Q: Can we ask you for a comment on the election results in BiH? Can you comment individually on each new Member of the BiH Presidency? Šefik Džaferović? Milorad Dodik? Željko Komšić?
A: All I’ve seen so far is the presidency results: Dodik, Dzaferovic, and Komsic. That is not enough to comment on more than the presidency. Dodik and Komsic come from very different places: one favors independence for Republika Srpska, which would make it an unrecognized Russian puppet state, and the other a Bosnia and Herzegovina with serious European ambitions. Dzaferovic is widely thought to represent continuity with Izetbegovic. We’ll have to wait and see what they are able to do together. It is not very promising.
Q: Do you expect a government crisis in the coming period and why?
Government formation in parliamentary systems is often difficult. We’ll have to see the results at all levels to make an informed guesstimate, but even then we could be wrong.
Amil Ducic of web portal Klix.ba also asked questions, to which I replied:
Q: Milorad Dodik is elected as member of Presidency of BIH. Is this kind of paradox for you because he stated enormous times that BiH is impossible, now he is head of this state?
A: It is potentially a serious problem if he uses his position to prevent functional governance in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But we’ll have to wait and see.
Q: Željko Komšić is elected as well, for the third time. This is slap in face of Dragan Covic. As we expected the reactions are harsh from HDZ. Is it for you a surprise that prime minister of Croatia Andrej Plenkovic showed a very harsh reaction that Komsic is not a good choice for BiH?
A: Of course the reaction from the HDZ is harsh. They lost. Maybe they should worry more about the program they run on than about whether it is a slap in the face of Covic. Plenkovic’s reaction is no surprise. He too is HDZ.
Q: This year’s elections could be result of big election fraud: There is plenty of information about it. What is your comment?
A: I’ll be guided mainly by the OSCE on this issue. They saw problems but so far as I understand have not said that the presidential results were strongly affected by fraud. The main problem with elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not at the polling places, but in the political system, which mainly rewards nationalist parties that control state patronage. But the elections are competitive and people have other options. They don’t use them as much as I might like, but that is a their choice, not mine.
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Let’s not forget
Greater Albania he suggested was a failed political project of Mussolini. Today Albanians throughout the region aren’t interested. What they want is to be part of the West, which means NATO and EU membership for each of the countries in which they live. Albanians are an important pro-Western factor throughout the Balkans. Already in NATO, Albania will now focus on its EU aspirations.
Albanian President Meta appeared at Johns Hopkins/DC yesterday. He made a good impression, in particular on the difficult issues of Greater Albania, border changes in general, and treatment of minorities.
Border changes, the President said, are not a good idea, in particular to accommodate ethnic differences. Discussing them opens a Pandora’s box of possibilities throughout the region and beyond. Far better to treat minorities, the Bulgarian and Macedonian minorities in Albania were mentioned in particular, properly. They want and deserve equal rights under the rule of law. They are not seeking more, a view contested by an audience member from the Macedonian diaspora.
The President was optimistic about the completion of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline segment in Albania this year and the link up to Italy soon. He suggested that tourism development on the country’s southern coast is progressing well, with major hotel chains making investments. A new north/south road near the coast is also planned, if I understood correctly.
As I don’t follow things in Albania closely, I took the occasion to review quickly some of its data. Growth the last few years has been erratic. While still poor by European standards, Albania is middle income for the World Bank, with a per capita GDP approaching $5,000 (but close to $12,000 taking purchasing power into account). Since 1990, when its isolated Communist regime started to fall , the World Bank says GDP has grown by a factor of more than 6, life expectancy is up six years to 78, births per woman have dropped to 1.7, poverty and extreme poverty have declined. Yes, things have improved.
There are still big problems. The EU, which has indicated it may open negotiations for accession with Albania next year, first wants to see a more effective, merit-based public administration and a more independent judicial system capable of dealing especially with organized crime and corruption. Asked how Albania would react to the populist wave in Europe and the US, President Meta responded Albania would have to work harder and better to meet more stringent accession requirements.
No doubt I’ll get nastygrams in response to this post, reminding me that Meta himself has been accused of corruption and claiming him to be untrustworthy or worse. Sorry folks, I’m not omniscient. I don’t know any Balkan politician who hasn’t been accused of one thing or another. I rarely know the truth or falsity of the charges. I more often than not have to await that more independent judiciary to decide which allegations are true.
In the meanwhile, I take pleasure in the notion that people are living better in Albania than they were when I observed elections there in 1996, a grim moment punctuated by a lot of protest gunfire. I also take pleasure in the notion that there are still people who wisely realize that joining trans-Atlantic institutions is a worthy goal even if the uncertainties and pain are significant. Albania is surely closer to European Union membership than it is to the broken country I saw following the collapse of its state-endorsed pyramid schemes. If it keeps going in the right direction, it will get where it wants to go.
Let’s not forget what the Albanian exodus to Brindisi (Italy) was like in 1991.
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