Tag: European Union
Even discussion can destabilize
I did a long interview with Pristina daily Kosova Sot Monday, before I’d heard about Chancellor Merkel’s statement ruling out border changes in the Balkans. It was published today:
- Recently, the Kosovo President has discussed the topic of separation in talks with Serbia as well as the idea of the territory exchange. How do you value this?
A: I don’t like it. No country worthy of European Union membership needs to trade away part of its population. Equality under the law has to apply to everyone.
- President Hashim Thaci is insisting for, as he says, a border correction, by taking the Presevo Valley by Kosovo, but Thaci does not mention what Serbia wins in such a case. How do you comment president Thaci’s policy, knowing the fact that he, until recently, was against partition and border changes?
A: I imagine he is responding to President Vucic’s frequently expressed interest in the four northern municipalities in Kosovo. There can be no one-way swap. It has to be an exchange.
- Kosovo’s constitution prohibits Kosovo from joining another country while specifying where the borders are. Does that mean that President Thaci is violating the constitution?
A: Anyone can propose an amendment to the constitution. Advocating one does not violate the constitution, but it does put the President in an awkward position of not appearing to defend something he has sworn to uphold.
- This year, it was necessary to set aside the Special Court that will judge the former KLA leaders, who are today in the main political positions in Kosovo. For many, the opening of territorial bargaining with Serbia is also seen as a consequence of the fear of justice and a kind of bazaar but how much can it be true in this middle and according to you why the Special Court is not yet operating?
A: I think the Special Court is operating, it just hasn’t brought any indictments. You’ll have to ask them why not. I know of no reason why discussion of land swaps would prevent such indictments. Do you?
- Do you feel that Trump administration has a change of attitude regarding the partition of Kosovo?
A: The change of attitude is not so much about partition as about whether such things should be discussed, or not. An ethnic nationalist Administration, which is what the U.S. currently has, finds it harder to rule out ethnic nationalist solutions like a land swap than a liberal democratic Administration, like those of Obama, Bush and Clinton.
- There is news that even Prime Minister of Albania Edi Rama interfered in this process of territorial negotiation. Do you really believe that?
A: You’ll need to ask him. I don’t think the politicians in either Pristina or Tirana are going to be much interested in moving to the other place if Greater Albania comes into existence.
- If the division occurs, what are possible consequences for Kosovo but also for the region? Could this affect the situation in Macedonia, in Bosnia etc?
A: Yes, partition of Kosovo would end the presence of Serbs south of the Ibar, lead to instability in Macedonia and 3-way partition in Bosnia. None of that will occur peacefully.
- Kosovo has an obligation to make the Association of Serbian Municipalities but is afraid it can bring autonomy within Kosovo, that is, a sort of ‘Bosnification’. Can this be avoided?
A: The constitutional court has made it absolutely clear how this can be avoided.
- Is it practical the idea of holding a referendum on the end of talks with Serbia?
A: No.
- There are debates in Kosovo on who should lead the dialogue and there is an opposition to president Thaci. Who should, according to you, make a lead in the dialogue?
A: I think the Unity Team that conducted the Ahtisaari negotiations was a fine idea. I don’t know if it can repeated.
- Do you believe that the Haradinaj government, which barely has any numbers for its existence, will lead to the end of this process or should a country go to the elections and then enter the dialogue?
A: That’s a question for your President and parliament to answer, not me. The question is whether a new election would produce a clearer and more functional majority. It is hard to know in advance.
- What influence do you think Russia has in the region and Kosovo through Serbia in these developments?
A: Russia is doing its best to destabilize the region. It is opposing the “North Macedonia” referendum, it is arming Dodik’s police, and it is encouraging partition talk, from which Moscow stands to gain. I wouldn’t rule out another assassination attempt against one or another Balkan leader.
- Often, from various diplomats, Kosovo is asked to seek creative solutions. What kind of creativity is needed, regarding to you?
A: I’m in favor of the kind of creativity that makes Kosovo a NATO and EU member as soon as possible. That means no partition, equal treatment for all citizens, an Association of Serb Municipalities within the parameters laid out by the constitutional court, and a government committed not just to legislation consistent with the acquis communautaire but also to implementing the acquis as rapidly as possible.
- What is the role of EU in these developments around the talks, knowing that EU was mediator until now?
A: So far as I am aware, the EU is still mediator and will preside over any discussion of land (and people) swaps. I doubt Vucic and Thaci will come to any agreement. Each one wants what he wants without giving anything up. Thaci will want the north, especially the water supply there, to remain inside Kosovo. Vucic will not want to give municipalities to Kosovo that lie along Serbia’s main route to the sea. But even discussion of land swaps can be destabilizing and lead to serious problems in the region and beyond. If I were Vucic and Thaci, I would want to avoid being blamed for that.
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Partition is not the solution
Agron Bajrami, editor in chief of Pristina daily Koha Ditore writes at kathimerini.gr:
The idea that Kosovo and Serbia could reach a comprehensive final agreement within the EU mediated dialogue has sparked a lot of enthusiasm, especially in the West which would like to see the open issues in Balkans closed so that the whole of the region could move towards integration within EU and NATO.
But the discussions that have been incited by the idea of a final Kosovo-Serbia “normalization” deal have so far gone in the opposite direction, away from European solutions.
The most un-European proposal that we heard so far in this debate, was the increasing talk from Serbian side about Kosovo partition. Even the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, has talked about it, while Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic is publicly favoring partition for quite some time – even calling it “the best solution”.
These Serbian statements were followed by clear signs that Kosovo president Hashim Thaçi might be willing to enter such negotiations. Furthermore, he also used the opportunity to include into discussions the Preshevo Valley – an Albanian-majority region in Southern Serbia.
While most of the political parties and other leaders in Kosovo reject these ideas, claiming rightly that Kosovo status and its borders were permanently settled in 2008, Thaçi and Vucic seem to be ready to agree on some sort of territorial solution, insisting it is the “best” and even the “only” solution.
Nothing could be further from truth.
Once we accept that changing the borders is a solution, it will not stop at Kosovo-Serbia line. It will spread to the whole of the region, from Skopje to Sarajevo, with Bosnia and Hercegovina situation being particularly explosive. Change of borders – which Thaçi and some others euphemistically call “border correction” – will also mean partition on ethnic basis, and exchange of territories. And – as history taught us – where territories cannot be exchanged, population exchange will follow.
Hence, the whole region would return to the time of the conflicts, not unlike the ones we have witnessed during the 1990’s, and all the work done in the last 20 years to bring peace to the people of Balkans will be disregarded overnight.
In this context, it is highly unfortunate, disgraceful even, that EU High Representative Federica Mogherini, under whose facilitation the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue takes place, has kept silent in the face of ethnic partition talks. EU might be tempted to accept any kind of deal that two sides agree, but that would make Brussels equally responsible for the disaster that will certainly follow if Kosovo partition is legitimized as an option.
Because, even if all the negative effects could be limited to Kosovo only, it will be a monumental disaster; it would run against the European idea of multiethnic and multicultural democracies, which is enshrined in the Ahtisaari proposal that served as the basis for Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence.
Of course, Ahtisaari plan has never been fully implemented also due to refusal of Serbia to agree with it, and there are still issues to be addressed related to minority and religious rights. But, giving up on that idea and returning to the ethnic based solutions will only push all of us back to conflicts and further instability.
That should not be allowed to happen.
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You don’t need to know a lot of history
I tweeted to Kosovo President Thaci on Friday:
.
@HashimThaciRKS: do you really want to open for renegotiation the deal with the US and most of the EU that got your state recognition? This could end very badly.
He responded:
Dear
@DanielSerwer, I’m committed deeply to obtain#Kosovo‘s membership in@NATO and EU. Based on values we share. Based on need to ensure safety of our children. We need to close a chapter that brings about reciprocal recognition & good neighborly relations between RKS & SRB.I’m against partition. I’m against swaps. I’m against status quo. I’m against making a Republica Srpska in
#Kosovo. But I’m in favor to peaceful demarcation and settling the 400km long border between Kosovo and Serbia. Balanced agreement is in all our interests, incl US & EU.
I prefer to respond here rather than on Twitter, which doesn’t work well for complex issues. This one is complex.
I share the President’s goals: NATO and EU membership, recognition, and good neighborly relations between Kosovo and Serbia. I am also against partition and land swaps, and a Republika Srpska (RS) in Kosovo (that is part of Kosovo that de facto escapes Pristina’s sovereignty, like the RS in Bosnia). Peaceful demarcation of the border is vital. You can look long and hard for two countries with good relations that have not agreed on and demarcated their border.
So what’s the problem? Just this: President Thaci has responded to Serbian President Vucic’s constant harping on partition of Kosovo with the suggestion that Kosovo would like to absorb at least some of the Albanian-populated communities in southern Serbia. Never mind that Serbia’s main route to the sea is adjacent to those Albanian communities and that Kosovo’s main water supply is the Serb-controlled north. The tit-for-tat presidential speculation on partition opens what diplomats call Pandora’s box: border changes throughout the Balkans that would necessarily involve significant populations and land areas.
Calling it “border correction” and associating it with demarcation does nothing to lessen the broad and dramatic impact an attempt to redraw borders along ethnic lines would entail. Consider this from Father Sava on his Facebook page today:
Acceptance of ethnic partition between Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo by territorial division, forcing 70.000 Serbs south of the partition line to an imminent exodus and leaving their holy sites in peril would mean that EU accepts the idea of an AGREED ETHNIC CLEANSING as a legitimate solution.
This would be a dangerous precedent with unforeseeable consequences which would inevitably encourage replication of such a model throughout the continent. EU member states are before a critical historical responsibility if this scenario is politically supported. This will bring us back to the tragic years of the ex-Yu wars in the 90ies.
Meanwhile, Republika Srpska President Dodik is declaring:
I think that BiH [Bosnia and Herzegovina] will not survive and that it will peacefully dissolve.
He knows that there is no possibility of a peaceful dissolution and has been arming his police with weapons from Russia to ensure that RS is ready to defend its secession when the time comes. That would of course lead to the expulsion of the (relatively few) Croats and Bosniaks who have returned to RS and might imperil the Serbs in the Bosnian Federation as well. The net result would likely be a non-viable Islamic Republic in central Bosnia that could readily become an extremist safe haven.
In Macedonia, there is a real risk that more extreme ethnic nationalists of both the Albanian and Macedonian varieties will benefit from the atmosphere that these partition fantasies are creating. That could lead to defeat of the September 30 referendum on the agreement that would end the more than 25-year dispute with Greece over the country’s name. NATO and EU membership would then become impossible and agitation in favor of an infeasible partition would become inevitable.
The implications for the secessionist regions of Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine are all too obvious. President Putin couldn’t hope for more.
Why is this happening? In part because the US has an ethnic nationalist administration whose erstwhile chief strategist, Steve Bannon, is running around pushing ethnic partition while former Trump campaign officials sign up lobbying clients like Dodik and Vucic. The lobbyists don’t care how much trouble their schemes may cause, but those who are actually governing in Washington, European capitals, and Brussels should. You don’t need to know a lot of history to know how easily conflicting ethnic territorial claims in the Balkans can lead to instability, and instability to much worse.
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Dear Ms Mogherini,
To my delight, civil society organizations from Serbia and Kosovo (I count 38 of them) are protesting any division of Kosovo in a joint letter to EU High Representative Federica Mogherini:
Dear Ms Mogherini,
Civil society organizations from Serbia and Kosovo are urging you to make an unambiguous statement against the division of Kosovo or the exchange of territories between Kosovo and Serbia on an ethnic principle. More frequent mentions of the possibility of redrawing the borders send a very dangerous message to the citizens of Serbia and Kosovo, as well as to the entire region, that there is a real possibility of legitimizing a dangerous propaganda of ethnic ownership over the territory – a principle that has pushed the region on several occasions into bloody conflicts.
Such developments would inevitably produce a chain reaction in other Balkan states and lead to numerous requests for changes in the borders in the Balkans, which opens the door to new conflicts. Also, this would send a message to most Serbs in Kosovo living south of the Ibar that they should move to “their” ethnic state, which could lead to another exodus of the population in the Balkans.
Civil society organizations have been trying for decades to improve contacts and cooperation between the two communities, primarily looking at the welfare of people living in Serbia and Kosovo and the future of the entire region. It is necessary to establish a lasting peace in the region and to accept interculturality and multi-ethnicity as a prerequisite for development. The ethnically clean countries, the outdated 19th-century model, must not be the goals of any policy, nor should they be tolerated and supported by representatives of the international community.
You, like other representatives of the international community, have a special responsibility to prevent this issue from reaching the agenda of the negotiations. All mediators, in particular the European Union and the United States, are obliged to abide by the rules established by the Badinter Commission in 1991. Those rules that recognize the boundaries of the constituent elements of the former federation and deny the ethnic principle of division must extend to Kosovo as a special case in the process of the dissolution of the SFRY.
Civil society organizations invite all actors, domestic and international, to actively oppose attempts to introduce the ethnic principle as the supreme in the building of states in the Balkans. Any state that is based on discrimination and divides citizens on any ground is pre-sentenced to failure. A society that develops on values opposed to respect for basic human rights is condemned to nationalism, isolation, and hopelessness. More and more young people are already leaving our countries, and the territories for which national and political elites are battling today will struggle without the driving democratic forces.
Civil society organizations invite the international community, but above all the authorities in Serbia and Kosovo to devote themselves to the creation of the best possible living conditions for all inhabitants of Kosovo (including the freedom of movement, business and international cooperation) during the negotiations, ensuring that the crimes from the past never happen again (including finding the missing persons as a primary task for both countries) and creating conditions for the development of legal and democratic government systems in Kosovo and Serbia. Only such negotiations are a guarantee for a safe and dignified life for all people, regardless of national or any other differences.
Centar za praktičnu politiku
Građanske inicijative
Helsinški odbor za ljudska prava
YUCOM
Beogradski centar za ljudska prava
Fond za humanitarno pravo
Inicijativa mladih za ljudska prava
Sandžački odbor za ljudska prava
Kulturni centar Damad
Urban In
Akademska inicijativa Forum 10
Centar za nove medije Liber
Centar modernih veština
Dijalog Valjevo
Generator Vranje
Udruženje žena Peščanik
UG Za zdravu opštinu Stara Pazova
Centar za ljudska prava Niš
Centar za kulturnu dekontaminaciju
Integra Pristina
Syri i Visionit
Youth Initiative for Human Rights – Kosovo
GAIA Kosovo
NVO Aktiv
Let’s Do It Peja
CRDP
STIKK
IKS
Kosovo Association Chopin
Lumbardhi Foundation
Centre for Social Groups Development– CSGD
CDF
Trentino con il Kossovo
Kosovo Women’s Network
Kosova Democratic Institute
X40-bunarfest
Numismatic association “Demastion”
Disability Development Centre
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Havoc impends
Here are some of the reactions I’ve gathered to President Thaci’s “border correction” proposal, in addition to the comments on my Thursday post:
Veton Surroi writes from Pristina:
Evidently, the Macedonian referendum on Greek accord will be hard hit by discussions on border changes. The vote relies heavily on Albanians in Macedonia, and they are a target of this maneuver. “If Preshevo can why can’t Tetovo”- that’s an immediate question that arises in a debate that should be actually about North Macedonia becoming a NATO member! (Hint: I don’t doubt someone is smiling in Moscow right now)
Sinisa Vukovic at Voice of America says:
Postavlja se pitanje i da li je to rešenje u skladu sa strateškim interesima obe strane, a odgovor je ne. Pre svega ne treba smetnuti sa uma da se na severu nalaze resursi za Prištinu poput vodosnabdevanja. Drugo, opšte je poznato da većina Srba živi južno od Ibra, dakle problematizuje se budućnost manjina”,rekao je on.
This Google translates as
The question arises whether this solution is in line with the strategic interests of both parties, and the answer is no. First of all, one should be disturbed by the fact that in the north there are resources for Pristina, such as water supply. Second, it is widely known that most Serbs live south of the Ibar, so the minority’s future is being problematized.
Father Sava, the Abbott of Decani monastery, tweets:
Ripple Effects already – Bosnian Serbs Seek Same UN Status as Kosovo
An old friend writes from Pristina:
I think you already pointed out reasonably so many arguments against partition. There is nothing new to add there. It is a lose/lose situation that has been elaborated so many times.What I am worried about is the third party: the international community that is mirroring the strange world we live in. Neither Thaci,nor Vucic will ever dare to open the partition issue if this was not silently endorsed in some form or another. This is what worries me.Another thing is that I guess two presidents are somehow moving ahead with their agenda, and that’s not only partition. Partition could be a fog for many other issues, like the association of Serb municipalities or some sort of Republika Srpska, the general amnesty for all crimes in and around Kosovo, etc.Petritsch’s reaction worried me a lot: correction of borders with few villages.I believe the point should be why at all somebody would have opted for partition in principle when this was so many times elaborated as nonstarter agenda?
Question for Petritsch and Company: why is a small correction of borders needed? Is this to save face for Vucic? Why would a few villages of Kosovo save the face of a Serbian President?And definitely a question for Washington and Brussels if they support partition or “correction of borders” agenda? They need to declare themselves in public. Have Brussels and Washington abandoned their previous red lines? Prishtina and Belgrade are not talking for the first time…So, what is happening now?
And a little reminder: was all this famous “normalization” dialogue started as technical dialogue? Now that Serbia is a front-runner for EU Integration, the so called Copenhagen criteria (that nobody dares to mention in Brussels because of the 5 non-recognizers), Prishtina has to play a technical role of the dancing partner that will not be qualified. But, how can Prishtina save the face of Vucic who wants to go in Europe but needs “few villages” of Kosovo to sell a historic deal back home? Before the mandate of Mogherini and friends end their mandate, because who knows later?And let’s say everything will be OK and Serbia gets a green light for the EU. Who can than guarantee that Kosovo can have its wanted UN seat? Brussels? Belgrade? Not sure.
There is also a Special Court issue that obviously is postponed for some time, or better to say after the negotiations are concluded. Why?
The US and EU working together have a superb track record in the Balkans. Local ownership has a truly terrible track record there, especially when it comes to issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity, not to mention treatment of minorities and rule of law more generally. Someone in Washington needs to wake up. Havoc impends.
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A bad idea whose time should not come
Kosovo President Thaci has made it clear he intends to discuss changing Kosovo’s borders with Serbian President Vucic. He denies this means ethnic partition of Kosovo and calls it a correction of the border, a euphemism intended to mean an exchange of territory:
If the Kosovo-Serbia border correction and the final agreement on mutual recognition are achieved, if such an agreement is of bilateral and balanced, meaning a win-win for both parties, then no one would be against it.
Presumably he is open to trading some or all of Kosovo’s Serb-majority northern municipalities for Albanian-majority territory in southern Serbia. The deal would of course have to include, prior to the land swap, mutual diplomatic recognition. Only sovereign states can exchange territory.
This idea has been widely circulated in recent weeks, but Thaci’s remarks are the first clear confirmation from the Albanian side of the equation. It would not be happening without US and European concurrence. Brussels and Washington have apparently decided that integrating the northern Serb municipalities with the rest of Kosovo is just too difficult, so they have dropped their previous firm opposition.
The border correction, or whatever you call it, is a bad idea, for many reasons:
- The majority of the Serbs in Kosovo as well as the more important Serb monasteries and other religious sites are not in the north. Those south of the Ibar River will be at risk, both short term and long term, if territory is exchanged.
- The exchange would increase support for those Albanians in Kosovo who favor union with Albanian and for those in Macedonia who would like to join such a Greater Albania, potentially destabilizing Macedonia as well.
- Republika Srpska, the Serb-controlled 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina, will want to follow suit, declaring independence and seeking to join Serbia. That will precipitate a comparable Croat move to have the Croat-majority cantons of Bosnia join Croatia.
- The Russians will point to this correction of borders as precedent for what they would like to do with South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, Transnistria in Moldova, and Donbas as well as Crimea in Ukraine.
- They may even like the idea enough to allow Kosovo into the United Nations, which would be a Pyrrhic victory if it then joins Greater Albania, or if China decides still to veto Kosovo membership.
I am still hoping agreement on this bad idea will prove difficult to achieve. Serbia has good security reasons not to give up territory in southern Serbia that lies adjacent to its main outlet to the sea. The Serb Orthodox Church stands to a big loser if this “correction” proceeds. Kosovo has good reason not to precipitate a series of claims to international border corrections that are unlikely to be peaceful. Nor will Pristina’s current politicians thrive in an environment in which Kosovo’s population is anticipating the end of the country’s statehood by merger into Albania. Vetevendosje, a movement that has advocated the option to join Albania, will be the big winner.
A democratic Kosovo and a democratic Serbia should be able to come to terms on protection of their respective minority populations without this perilous exchange of territory and populations. Of course that is precisely the problem: neither is a consolidated democracy and both are run by ethnic nationalists who still lack adequate respect for minorities. It shouldn’t be a big surprise that an ethnic nationalist administration in the US and an EU in which ethnic nationalism has gained lots of ground weaken in their commitment to democracy and the rule of law, but it is not a welcome development. This is a bad idea whose time should not come.
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