Tag: European Union

Peace picks July 15 – 21

1. The Legacy of the July 15 Coup Attempt on Civil-Military and US-Turkey Relations | Monday, July 16, 2018 | 10:30 am – 3:30 pm | The SETA Foundation | Register Here

On July 15, 2016, the Turkish people demonstrated their commitment to democracy and civil rights by peacefully resisting and stopping an attempted coup by a faction within the Turkish Armed Forces. In the two years since, Turkey has changed its system of government and overhauled its military forces, reforms which have had marked effects on the nature of civil-military relations in Turkey. These changes will have significant impact on the future of the US-Turkey relations as well as the democratic development of the country.

On July 16, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC will host a conference on the anniversary of the July 15 coup attempt with a Keynote Address by Dr. Ravza Kavakci Kan, Deputy Chairperson of the AK Party. Two panel discussions will focus on the future of civil-military relations in Turkey and the changes in Turkey since the 2016 coup attempt will mean for the future of the US-Turkey security partnership, which has long been a strong bond between the two nations.

10:30 – 12:00  Panel I: The Future of Civil-Military Relations in Turkey

     Sener Akturk, Associate Professor, Koç University Department of International Relations

     Edward Erickson, Scholar-in-Residence in the Clark Center for Global Engagement, State University of New York at Cortland

     Mark Perry, Author and Foreign Policy Analyst

Moderated by Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

12:00 – 1:00    Keynote Address by Dr. Ravza Kavakci Kan, Deputy Chairperson of the AK Party

1:00 – 1:30      Lunch

1:30 – 3:00      Panel II: The Future of the US-Turkey Security Partnership

     Mark Kimmitt, Defense Consultant, MTK Defense Consultants

     Richard Outzen, Senior US Army Advisor & Member of Policy Planning Staff, US Department of State

     Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Moderated by Kilic B. Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC


2. Second Anniversary of the July 15 Coup Attempt | Monday, July 16, 2018 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm | Turkish Heritage Organization | Held at the United States Institute for Peace, Auditorium – 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here

Please join THO and Bau International University on  Monday, July 16, for an exclusive interview with Ret. General, Commander of the Turkish Land Forces, Salih Zeki Colak. This event will focus on the second anniversary of the July 15 coup attempt that took place in 2016.

Speakers:

Salih Zeri Colak – Retired General, Commander of the Turkish Land Forces

Dr. M. Hakan Yavuz –  Professor of Political Science, University of Utah

Lincoln P. Bloomfield, Jr. – Chairman Emeritus, Stimson Center


3. JCPOA 2.0: Iran, Europe, Trump, and the Future of the Iran Deal | Monday, July 16, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm | National Iranian American Council | Capitol Visitor Center, Room SVC-210/212 | Register Here

Nearly two months have passed since President Trump exited from the Iran nuclear deal and announced the reimposition of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. While major businesses have withdrawn from the Iranian market in the wake of the decision, the remaining parties to the accord have continued to engage in dialogue about how to keep the accord alive.

Speakers:

John Glaser – Director of Foreign Policy Studes, Cato Institute

Kelsey Davenport – Director for Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association

Reza Marashi – Research Director, National Iranian American Council

Jamal Abdi – Vice President of Policy, National Iranian American Council


4. Are Americans Giving Up on Democracy? | Tuesday, July 17, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | New America | Register Here

How committed are Americans to the values, norms and processes of democracy itself? As non-democratic and illiberal movements take hold across the globe, and with democratic norms and voting rights under threat in the U.S., this question has gained urgency. Recently, two major studies of public attitudes, from the Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group and from Pew Research Center, have delved deeply and rigorously into this question.

Please join us for a lunchtime conversation about the state of our democracy, what citizens want to see from their country, and how to move forward. Lee Drutman of New America and Jocelyn Kiley from Pew Research Center will present the key findings of the results, followed by a discussion involving journalists and academics who have watched the shifting ground of American democracy from different angles.

Speakers:

Lee Drutman – Senior Fellow, Political Reform, New America

Jocelyn Kiley – Associate Director, US Politics, Pew Research Center

Perry Bacon, Jr. – Political Writer, FiveThirtyEight

Vanessa Wiliamson – Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings Institution

Henry Olsen – Senior Fellow, Ethics and Public Policy Center


5. Supporting Democracy in Challenging Times | Tuesday, July 17, 2018 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here

For more than three decades, the United States has provided bipartisan support to secure freedom, human rights and democratic governance for countries around the world through the work of the National Endowment for Democracy, along with its four core institutes, the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), the International Republican Institute (IRI), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), and the Solidarity Center.

Over the past decade, the work of promoting democracy has been increasingly challenging amidst a phenomenon of democratic recession and resurgent authoritarianism, which is increasingly viewed by scholars as a new era of ideological and political contestation. Systemic corruption, deep inequality and injustice, and the failure of governments to address the needs of ordinary citizens breed political instability, terrorism, and massive flows of refugees – conditions that threaten our own security and well-being.  Authoritarian leaders are capitalizing on these conditions and accelerating their efforts to penetrate and corrupt fragile states through aggressive political, economic, technological and cultural mechanisms with the goal of reaping political influence and acquiring strategic resources. Please join us at CSIS on July 17 as we host the heads of the NED, CIPE, IRI, NDI, and the Solidarity Center to discuss the new challenges in supporting democracy.

Speakers:

Carl Gershman – President, National Endowment for Democracy

Andrew Wilson – Executive Director, Center for International Private Enterprise

Daniel Twining – President, International Republican Institute

Kenneth Wollack – President, National Democratic Institute

Shawna Bader-Blau – Executive Director, Solidarity Center

Daniel F. Runde – William A. Schreyer Chair and Director, Project on Prosperity and Development, CSIS


6. Oil and Iran: How Renewed Sanctions Will Affect Iran and World Markets | Wednesday, July 18, 2018 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | Atlantic Council | Register Here

In exiting the Iran nuclear deal, the Trump administration has vowed to drastically reduce Iran’s oil exports below figures reached during negotiations over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Administration officials have been traveling the globe urging importers of Iranian oil to cut purchases to zero by Nov. 4, the deadline for re-imposition of US secondary sanctions. The panel will discuss whether this goal is realistic and the impact the US campaign is having on global production and prices as well as on Iran.

Speakers:

Moderator: Barbara Slavin – Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council

Anna Borshchevskaya – Ira Weiner Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Amos J. Hochstein – Senior Vice President, Marketing, Tellurian Inc.

Robin Mills – CEO, Qamar Energy

Brian O’Toole – Non-resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council

Sara Vakhshouri – Founder and President, SVB Energy International


7. From Washington to Brussels: A Discussion on the NATO 2018 Summit | Thursday, July 19, 2018 | 8:30 am – 9:15 am | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here

Please join us on Thursday, July 19 for a timely conversation with Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), Co-Chairs of the Senate NATO Observer Group and members of the U.S. delegation to the July 11-12 NATO Summit, for post-summit analysis as well as a discussion of the vital role that bipartisan Congressional leadership plays in tackling transatlantic security challenges.  Our speakers will share details about the specific role the newly constituted Senate NATO Observer Group will play in providing Congressional support for NATO and U.S. strategic interests in Europe.


8. No Friends, No Enemies? Trans-Atlantic Relations after Trump’s Europe Trip | Thursday, July 19, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm | Brookings Institution | Register Here

What is the state of the Atlantic alliance following the July NATO summit and the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki? Where are relations heading between the Trump administration and the European Union, which Trump has claimed “was set up to take advantage” of the United States? What are the implications of the Trump administration’s protectionism for trans-Atlantic relations? Where do Brexit Britain and post-election Turkey fit in an evolving West? Under pressure from within and without, can the European Union forge a stronger independent foreign policy and preserve multilateralism and liberal order in a world where these concepts are under assault?

On July 19, the Center on the United States and Europe, in partnership with the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSİAD), will host a panel discussion examining recent developments in Europe and trans-Atlantic relations, including the outcomes of Trump’s July trip to Brussels, London, and Helsinki. Following the discussion, the panelists will take questions from the audience.

Speakers:

Introduction: Bahadir Kaleagasi – CEO, TUSIAD

Moderator: Susan B. Glasser – Staff Writer, The New Yorker

Robert Kagan – Stephen & Barbara Friedman Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

Kemal Kirişci – Senior Fellow, TUSIAD; Director, The Turkey Project, Brookings Institution

Angela Stent – Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

Thomas Wright – Director, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution

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Putin’s pet

President Trump is on his way to a meeting Monday with Russian President Putin. Along the way, he is doing precisely what Putin most wishes for.

First Trump trashed NATO. That’s the alliance Putin loves to hate. Trump not only criticized the allies for failing to meet the 2024 2% target for defense spending, he also fired a salvo at Germany for importing gas from Russia. Sitting next to him when he did that at breakfast were Secretary of State Pompeo, Ambassdor to NATO Hutchison, and Chief of Staff Kelly. All looked stunned, but Kelly did not bother hiding his discomfort. The White House spokesperson put him in his place by claiming he was disappointed in the breakfast offerings.

Then last night, in an interview that became public while he was at dinner with Prime Minister May in London, Trump compounded the felony. He not only blasted his host for not favoring “hard” Brexit and allowing immigrants to damage the “fabric” of British society, but also attacked the mayor of London for being soft on terrorism. The racist tone of these remarks is apparent to anyone who listens. The “special relationship” between the US and UK hasn’t known a lower moment in the past 100 years.

Then this morning we read that Trump is preparing to cut a “deal” on Syria in which Putin promises something he can’t deliver: withdrawal of the Iranians and their proxies from Syria’s border with Israel. In return, the US would withdraw from Syria, something Trump has promised publicly he would do, leaving the Kurds to cut a deal with Assad. This is an idea Netanyahu is pushing, along with relieving Russia from US and European sanctions.

The next shoe to drop will be Ukraine. Trump believes Crimea rightfully belongs to Russia, since people speak Russian there. Never mind that many people throughout Ukraine speak Russian, as well as Ukrainian. He may accept the Russian annexation, thereby putting a big smile on Putin’s face and completing an extraordinary week for the Russian president: NATO undermined, the UK/US relationship weakened, Syria won, and Crimea absorbed. What else could go right?

The pattern is clear: Trump is Putin’s pet president doing precisely what Moscow wants. The only real question is why.

I have favored the view that money is the main reason. Trump’s real estate empire, about which he cares more than anything else, is heavily dependent on Russian investment and purchases of condos. Putin could turn off the flow of rubles in an instant. No wealthy Russian would buck the president, who gets to decide which oligarchs prosper and which don’t. Trump’s finances wouldn’t survive a month without Moscow’s support.

But it is also possible that Trump himself was recruited long ago. He hired people for his campaign who were Russian intelligence assets. Special Counsel Mueller has already indicted some of them. Trump’s visit to Moscow in the late 1980s, when it was still the capital of the Soviet Union, has raised questions. The Republican attempt yesterday in Congress to discredit the former chief of FBI counter-intelligence operations, Peter Strzok, suggests how desperate they are to stymie an investigation that has already gotten to one degree of separation from Trump.

But the Congress is also beginning to react appropriately to Trump’s surrender of American interests to Putin. It has passed a strong resolution in support of NATO and against concessions to Putin on Ukraine. Republican discomfort with Trump’s “national security” tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union is starting to show. The trade war with China is causing a lot of heartburn in the Middle West and other areas of the country the Republicans need to keep on their side.

But Putin is still making Trump sit and beg. He is Putin’s pet.

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Rebooting globalization

The American Enterprise Institute yesterday hosted a panel discussion entitled “Rethinking Globalization: How do we Rebuild Support?” to kickstart a joint project by AEI and Brookings about “Reconceptualizing Globalization.” The panelists were Jared Bernstein (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities), Daniel Drezner (Tufts University), Stephen Hadley (RiceHadleyGates), and Merit Janow (Columbia University). Neena Shenai (AEI) and Joshua Meltzer (Brookings) moderated the discussion.

Shenai highlighted the timeliness of the initiative and stressed the critical importance of understanding globalization’s flaws, which have led to the populist discontent that precipitated the rise of Trump and other leaders whose rhetoric and trade policies threaten the institutional foundations of the post- World War II international order. Shenai asked each of the panelists to identify key factors that have led to the current hostility towards globalization and to propose possible solutions to the issue.

Bernstein began by pointing out that the benefits of comparative advantage-based trade are such that the winners can compensate the losers and still come out ahead. But political realities in the US mean that this does not occur. Instead, the benefits of trade accrue to corporate leaders, who use their political capital to negotiate trade agreements that are advantageous to them, and not necessarily their workers. Thus, the benefits of globalization, a positive sum game, have remained with elites, causing widespread dissatisfaction among the working class, many of whom lose their livelihoods due to trade-associated job destruction.

Further, Bernstein pointed out that wages increased with productivity from the 1940’s until the 1980’s. Since then, wages have stagnated, even as productivity continued to increase. The globalization backlash arises from workers not being fairly compensated for the gains from trade. Globalization needs to be reset in favor of the worker. US workers should be better represented in trade negotiations, and US policymakers should give domestic manufacturers tax cuts. On a monetary policy level, the US should also take aim at currency manipulators.

Hadley traced the origins of current discontent with Western international institutions to the elites’ decision to ignore their deficiencies following the 2008 financial crisis. This refusal resulted in the Tea Party’s political success in 2010, as well as the rise of Trump in 2016. Internationally, US dominance of the Bretton Woods system led new economic powers, like China, to create their own banks, institutions, and trade alliances. The legitimacy of Bretton Woods is thus threatened by domestic pressures within countries in the US bloc, as well as by international pressures.

The solution to the problem, however, does not lie in the destruction that Trump has wrought on global institutions and US alliances since his election. Hadley believes that the US would be better served by reforming Bretton Woods to appease populist discontent, and adjusting these institutions’ leadership structure to better reflect the current, multipolar global political and economic landscape.

Janow agreed that international institutions are a major part of the globalization problem, using her time at the WTO as an example. She argued that the WTO is weak and ineffective. The international trade body should generate its own work program to address its deficiencies instead of relying on the activity of member nations to solve its shortcomings.

In spite of these, Janow emphasized that policymakers should place more weight on what gave birth to multilateralism in the first place as they evaluate its benefits and drawbacks. Global institutions have contributed immensely to world peace and security by significantly raising the cost of war and conflict between trading partners. Further, globalization has reduced the negative externalities associated with individual countries not thinking beyond bilateralism in their approach to international economics. The global system is doomed if people do not believe these basic points.

Drezner questioned whether a globalization backlash was even occurring. The narrative that the 2008 financial crisis inspired a populist groundswell against elite-promulgated globalism is not supported by public opinion polls. In fact, 70% of Americans have supported globalization over the past 10 years, while 75% of Americans favor preserving US alliances over getting better terms on a trade deal. Further, even if there is a backlash, Drezner believes that the domestic economic damage Trump’s aggressive trade policies will cause will provide a strong incentive to not vote anti-globalists into office in the future.

The Bottom Line: Globalization is flawed. Significant portions of the US population have been left behind by current US trade policies. But the bellicose approach president Trump is taking provides no cure. The post-World War II economic order should not be destroyed. It needs to be rebooted, with US workers gaining their fair share of the benefits.

PS: apropos

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Cause to celebrate

Why should you be pleased that NATO has invited Macedonia to join the Alliance? It’s a small country (2 million people) tucked away and landlocked on the Balkan peninsula without even much of a highway running through it. One quarter of its population is Albanian and 10% are all sorts of other things: Serbs, Croats, Vlachs and who knows what. It only declared independence in 1991 and has spent most of its existence squabbling with Greece, which claims Macedonia’s name exclusively for one of its provinces.

First and foremost, the NATO invitation will, one hopes, give both Macedonia and Greece the courage to end the squabbling. Skopje and Athens have negotiated an elaborate agreement that changes the official name (for all uses) to Republic of Northern Macedonia and resolves a host of contentious details concerning the country’s language, cultural history, textbooks, minorities, irredentist claims, economic cooperation….All that is needed is final approval in the two countries’ parliaments and in a referendum in Macedonia. That is a high water mark in a 25-year effort to resolve the issue.

Second, the invitation sends a strong signal in two directions:

  1. to the other countries in the Balkans who are not yet members of either NATO or the EU.
  2. to the Russians, who have been determined to slow if not block NATO expansion.

The signal to the rest of the Balkans is just this: if you have the political courage to take on and resolve tough issues, the trans-Atlantic institutions will hold their doors open to you. First NATO, then the EU. Solve your inter-ethnic issues and problems with your neighbors, reform your economies and political systems to reduce corruption and prevent state capture, and you will get a place at the table in the two most important alliances ever created.

To the Russians, the signal is just as clear: you may try to block NATO expansion and try to drive a wedge between Europe and the US, but you will not succeed. Even the relatively weak states in the Balkans will stand up to you. Macedonia has already expelled some of your intelligence agents trying to sow dissension from the “name” agreement. Montenegro last year, Macedonia this year. Maybe Kosovo the year after. Then only Serbia and Republika Srpska will stand between the Alliance and a Balkans whole and free. You can try to shore up your proxies, but they stand to gain more joining the West than continuing to bet on Vladimir Putin.

Third, NATO membership will add Macedonia’s small army and military capabilities to an Alliance that needs them. The Macedonians have already served years embedded in the Vermont National Guard in Afghanistan, where their commanding general thought they performed as well as US troops in combat. Who knows where they will be needed next, whether by NATO or the EU military structure? They are still short of the 2% of GDP goal NATO set for 2024, but their invitation gives Macedonia every incentive to reach it, sooner rather than later.

Of course in the scheme of things, “Northern Macedonia” in NATO is a small victory. It isn’t nearly as earthshaking as an American president who can’t find anything good to say about the Alliance while praising the Russian president who attacked the American electoral system. But it’s a good thing and something to celebrate.

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Who can fix Bosnia?

Delvin Kovač of Bosnian website Vijesti.ba asked questions; I replied:

  1. Should the international community increase its presence in Bosnia, since Bosnian politicians can’t come to an agreement on any important issues regarding Bosnia’s future?

A: No. It may need to adjust its presence, for example by moving all the EU military forces to Brcko to forestall any attempt to seize it by one entity of the other, but Bosnia’s politicians need to learn to deal with their own problems.

  1. Will Bosnia be sliding into a constitutional crisis after the autumn elections this year, as some politicians already announced such scenario due to unresolved electoral law issue?

A: No. As I’ve explained, there are adequate provisions in the existing Federation constitution to deal with any issues that may arise.

  1. Bosnian Croat lawmakers refused to attend a session of the lower house of the Federal Parliament because the body recently adopted an election-related law without them. Is boycotting a Parliament maybe a part of a Croat Democratic Party Leader Dragan Covic’s so called “Plan B”?

A: You’ll have to ask him. For me, boycotting is a way of eliminating yourself from the political equation, not getting what you want. If you want to protect your rights, show up.

  1. A coalition of parties representing Bosnian Serbs in the Government said that it would not allow Bosnia to enter NATO while neighbouring Serbia is not part of the international alliance. Should Bosnia really depend on neighbouring countries Serbia’s and Croatia’s decisions when it comes to foreign policy issues?

A: No. But it is up to Bosnia’s voters to punish at the polls politicians who want to follow foreign leaders rather than their own.

  1. Milorad Dodik is no longer the only ally of Russian Federation in Bosnia, since it is expanding an influence in Bosnia and Croatia through the Croat Democratic Party Leader Dragan Covic and the group of lawmakers in the Croatian Parliament. Russian Federation is obviously penetrating NATO countries territory increasingly. Is that to be considered dangerous?

A: Yes, but again it is up to voters to punish at the polls those leaders who kowtow to the Russians.

  1. Dragan Covic said that local parties cannot agree on the solution for the local election in Mostar and that the local election will almost definitely not be held in this city, which faces an indefinite wait for a new municipal council. What do you think is a adequate solution for this problem?

A: I think an adquate solution for this problem is one Bosnians can agree on. I don’t think you should expect foreigners to be very interested any longer in your municipal elections. I spent a lot of time on Mostar at the Dayton peace talks. It is time for you to invest the political energy needed to overcome the problems there.

  1. What can Bosnian citizens expect if Milorad Dodik and Dragan Covic become the Serb and the Croat member of the Bosnian tripartite Presidency. They both openly call for the destruction of Bosnia and the creation of a para-state – third entity? Who can confront such dangerous politics of the two?

A: Bosnia’s citizens, principally. But the West can be relied upon not to recognize any state that attempts to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Nor will Croatia or Serbia want that.

PS: Here it is in Bosnian.

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This is not a loyal American

President Trump, noting that Putin is KGB, says he’s fine:

I might even end up having a good relationship [with Mr Putin], but they’re going ‘well, president Trump, be prepared, president Putin is KGB’, this and that…Do you know what? Putin’s fine, he’s fine, we’re all fine, we’re people. Will I be prepared? Totally prepared – I have been preparing for this stuff my whole life, they don’t say that.

Even the conservative Heritage Foundation, one of the organizations that helped assemble the list of his possible Supreme Court nominees, is warning that Trump is wrong:

Things to remember before travels to Europe: -Russia is the aggressor—Ukraine is the victim -Crimea belongs to Ukraine -NATO & US troops in Europe serve our national interests -Europeans must spend more on defense -Putin’s track record shows he can’t be trusted

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Pompeo is in Pyongyang, trying to turn a vague one-page statement from the Singapore summit into a serious plan for denuclearization of North Korea. That would require first an inventory of their nuclear and missile programs as well as years if not decades to dismantle them. There isn’t much chance it is really going to happen. Kim Jong-un is continuing to expand his missile and nuclear capacities, even as Trump was announcing that the danger has passed. There is no record of the North Koreans telling the truth about their strategic weapons, which they regard as guaranteeing the survival of their regime.

As if that were not enough, the US kicked off its trade war with China today, provoking the anticipated (and permitted under international rules) retaliation. So US exports to China now face more serious barriers, while the price of imports from China to American consumers will rise. Both moves hurt core Trump constituencies: agriculture and manufacturing. The trade war also means that China will not maintain strong sanctions on North Korea.

On the home front, the Administration will fail to meet a court-ordered deadline to reunite migrant children with their parents, as it appears to have no idea which children belong with which parents. Even when it succeeds, it hopes to hold even asylum-seeking parents and children together in prison, not free them pending court hearings (for which most asylum-seekers in fact do appear). To boot, EPA Administrator Pruitt has finally resigned. He faced 15 or so ethics investigations, most due to his use of public office for private gain. That is the textbook definition of corruption, though no doubt he’ll drag out the proceedings and eventually be pardoned.

While Trump addresses adoring crowds that cheer his bravado, the United States is declining rapidly in the world’s estimation, especially among America’s friends. Our European allies are girding themselves for the upcoming NATO summit, where Trump is expected to make it clear he has little regard for them (as he did at the recent G7 meeting). They in turn will do everything they can to maintain the nuclear deal with Iran, straining the Alliance further. Trump has abandoned America’s friends in southern Syria, putting Israel and Jordan at risk. His move of the US embassy to Jerusalem has effectively killed any hope of progress with the Palestinians for the foreseeable future.

Relative American power was bound to decline as other countries prosper and acquire more advanced technology. Trump is accelerating that process by abandoning allies, cozying up to adversaries, weakening America’s moral standing, and damaging America’s exporters as well raising prices for its consumers. The President has visited golf clubs more than 100 times while in office but has not once visited US troops in a war zone. What more evidence do we need that he is not a loyal American?

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