Tag: Hungary
Stevenson’s army, May 11
– Costa Rica is suffering from a ransomware attack.
– FP says Marcos is no Duterte on foreign policy
– Politico reports US arms advice to Taiwan.
– David Ignatius sees peace progress in Armenia.
– DNI testified in open session.
– GOP candidates fight over China.
– EU can’t get Hungary to agree on sanctions.
– NYT notes Russia has captured most of east.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 9 and 10
April 10:
Reading about the Russian law limiting what can be said about the conflict in Ukraine, I remembered that America’s record has blemishes, despite the first amendment. Read Geoffrey Stone’s Perilous Times. And look at the Sedition Law of 1918.
– In preparation for our discussion of the media in week 11, think about the NYTimes’ announcement by Executive Editor Dean Baquet this week limiting its reporters’ use of Twitter, discussed at CJR. In the memo, Baquet said that while Twitter can play a “helpful role,” particularly when it comes to “highlighting the concerns of underrepresented groups,” it has also had deleterious effects on the Times, its work, and its staff in four main ways, with journalists over-relying on Twitter echo chambers in their reporting, worrying too much about feedback from other users, damaging the paper’s reputation (and their own) with “off-the-cuff responses,” and suffering there from harassment and attacks.
– Also worth your time is Ezra Klein’s interview about Ukraine with Fiona Hill. [I’m linking the transcript; it’s from a podcast]
-WSJ reports on Israel’s 4-year air war across the Middle East.
April 9:
I’m concerned that many Americans are taking an overly narrow and naively optimistic view of the Ukraine war. Our media coverage comes mostly from the Ukraine side; we see the war as they do, brutal but with bravery. We’re understandably sympathetic to that side. But…remember that support for Ukraine is limited and perishable. Outside of Europe, governments are indifferent or even hostile [that is, pro-Russian]. Why? Because it’s in their interests.
Josh Rogin is mad at Israel. But already, disruptions in Ukrainian food supplies is already hurting people across the globe.
Even in Europe, Hungary’s pro-Putin Orban easily won reelection. And Marine Le Pen might become president of France. Remember that NATO requires unanimity for big decisions.
Even in America, nearly 1/3 of House Republicans opposed a mere sense of Congress resolution supporting NATO. And the current consensus is that Democrats will lose massively in the midterm elections.Trust in government is higher in Russia than US.
Can the current support for Ukraine continue in Germany, America, and elsewhere until the fall? Into next year?
Problems to be overcome: Shortage of 152 mm artillery. A new Russian general with Syria experience. Chinese expansion of its nuclear arsenal.
Meanwhile, take heart from this analysis of how Kyiv prevailed.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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No fly won’t fly, despite what you may think
Why can’t NATO do more to help Ukraine? Why not institute a no-fly zone that prevents Russian aircraft from attacking Ukrainians forces and population centers?
Yes it would make a difference
Preventing Russian air attacks and close air support would certainly make a difference. The Russians have not established absolute supremacy in the air, but they are stronger there than the Ukrainians. Moscow still has lots of air power in reserve. Preventing it from coming into the fight could be necessary to preserve the viability of Ukraine’s forces.
But enforcing it would entail unacceptable risks
Enforcement of a no-fly zone requires willingness to force down or shoot down violators. Or to destroy violating aircraft while they are on the ground. That’s where things get dicey. NATO would need to be ready to attack Russian aircraft. Bluffing won’t work. Putin would quickly test whether the Alliance is prepared to put its pilots where its declarations are. He would not worry about getting a few Russian pilots killed.
No doubt NATO could put up rather than shut up, but that would initiate hostilities with Russia. Putin could retaliate against the Alliance in any number of countries: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, or the Baltics. That would trigger Article 5, NATO’s mutual defense commitment, puttng the Alliance at war with Russia. It is easy to imagine further escalation and even eventually a nuclear attack. President Biden is wise not to want to risk that.
It could happen anyway
An escalation of that sort could happen even without a no-fly zone. I hear tell that NATO AWACS flying in Polish airspace is jamming Russian signals. Putin could take that, too, as reason enough to attack Poland. Arms shipments to Ukraine from NATO countries could be another trigger for widening the war. Supply of effective air defenses might be particularly provocative from the Russian perspective.
That argues for ending this war quickly
The risks of escalation will be there so long as the fighting continues. Ending this war quickly is the best way of eliminating those risks. The Russians so far seem unable to defeat Ukraine, but the Ukrainians aren’t able to defeat Russia either. Negotiation is the way to go, but there is no overlap between what Russia wants and what Ukraine is prepared to give, or between what Ukraine wants and Russia is prepared to give. A no fly zone would have virtues, but it won’t fly. The fighting is likely to continue until one side or the other can claim at least pyrrhic victory.
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Democracy on the defensive, but not lost yet
I read the Biden/Putin phone call on Tuesday and the Summit of Democracies differently from many others. The former was a clear even if not conclusive win for the US. The latter is more equivocal.
President Putin went into the phone call having mounted most of an invasion force and demanding a binding legal prohibition on Ukraine joining NATO. He came out accepting an official-level dialogue with Washington on European security. That is a win for Biden, even if the invasion force remains in place for now. Moscow will continue at the dialogue to demand a commitment that Ukraine not join NATO, but the Americans won’t yield on that.
Ironically, the best guarantee that Kiev won’t join NATO lies in the current NATO members, few of whom are prepared to take on an obligation to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression. Redoubling the irony: Putin’s mounting of an invasion force has convinced any loyal Ukrainian that NATO membership is highly desirable. That makes two own goals for Putin: he has spent a fortune on an invasion force that was unnecessary and counterproductive.
The Summit of Democracies convening remotely today is harder to judge. It is one more sign of what we already know: democracy is under attack both in the US and in many places abroad. The Republican campaign against the validity of the 2020 US election and Republican legislation limiting the franchise in many states have cast doubt on whether the US can survive as a democracy. Events in Myanmar, Sudan, Belarus, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and other places have cast more than doubts. Democracy in all those places has suffered severe setbacks in the past year. Not to mention Russia, Serbia, Hungary, Brazil, and other countries that are suffering longer-term erosion of at least semi-democratic institutions and processes. Not to mention the survival of long-standing authoritarian regimes in Syria, Jordan, the Gulf, China, Thailand, and Vietnam.
What good can the Summit of Democracies do? It is difficult to judge. I suppose preparations for it in countries invited and reactions to it in countries not invited may marginally increase pressure for upholding democratic values. Certainly Washington is well aware of its own limitations as a leader of the democratic world and convener of the Summit. The Biden Administration isn’t doing all it might, as it has hesitated to eliminate the anti-democratic filibuster in order to pass Federal voting rights legislation, but it is prosecuting January 6 rioters and suing states that limit voting rights in Federal court.
There is a possibility that some would-be authoritarians in other places will find themselves pressured and even on the ropes, but the overall trend appears to be in their direction. Authoritarians have learned how to weather less draconian political environments, as totalitarian control has become far more difficult due to modern communications and social media. They have also learned how to help each other survive, in order to avoid any domino effects, especially among neighbors. The pendulum has swung in the authoritarian direction, due in part to the corona virus epidemic and the consequent economic slowdown as well as the rallying cries of ethnic/sectarian/linguistic/racial nationalists.
The pendulum can also swing in the other direction, but the Summit looks incapable of making that happen. A successful Russian invasion of Ukraine, or US agreement to block Ukraine from NATO membership, would make things much worse than they already are. Democracy is on the defensive, but not lost yet.
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Stevenson’s army, October 4
– Hungary burnished its image with lobbying campaign.
– Foreign leaders like King Abdullah of Jordan bought prime Malibu real estate.
– Where the money won’t go, because of the CR.
– In speech today USTR will show little thaw in trade war with China.
– Paul Pillar says Afghanistan isn’t good real estate for terrorists.
– Punchbowl News says parliamentarian tells Senators debt limit can be changed using reconciliation without jeopardizing Biden program.
– My former colleague and Mint Director Philip Diehl makes the case for the platinum coin.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 7
– To commemorate the 20th anniversary of the PDB warning of what became the 9/11 attacks, WOTR reprints the document and an excerpt from the 9/11 Commission report.
-Politico details the budget games and deceptions used by Trump to get money for the border wall.
– New Yorker writer complains about the press blackout in Afghanistan.
– Notre Dame prof summarizes his new book on Soviet-German cooperation during 1920s-30s.
-SAIS prof Anne Applebaum dumps on Tucker Carlson over Hungary, as does a TPM writer.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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