Tag: Intelligence
Stevenson’s army, May 7
– The best case I’ve seen for Commandant Berger’s radical restructuring of the US Marine Corps is this WOTR piece by a Chief Warrant Officer.
– Peter Baker has newer, more disheartening statistics on our hyperpartisanship: the number of Americans who don’t want their kids to marry outside their party has grown.
– In FT, Simon Schama summarizes Ukraine’s history.
– Taliban are reimposing the burqa.
– TPM has more from the Esper memoir.
– WSJ sees careful distinctions in US intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
– Study in FP shows where foreign aid goes.. According to our calculations, of the $51 billion in U.S. aid tracked by ForeignAssistance.gov in fiscal 2020, about 40 percent was spent by the U.S. government itself to buy goods and pay salaries, for example. Another 20 percent was administered by U.S.-based firms and nonprofits. A little more than 30 percent went to international organizations—the United Nations and other multilateral bodies—and international NGOs. Of the small remainder, foreign firms and nonprofits, mostly based in recipient countries, received just above 5 percent. That leaves partner country governments in the developing world the recipients of just 3.9 percent of U.S. aid spending. Take out Jordan, which receives a large part of U.S. bilateral development aid, and that drops to a mere 0.7 percent.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 5
Court decisions on campaign laws opened a big loophole that led to an amazing development in the Ohio Republican Senate primary. As CRS noted,
Unlimited Contributions to Independent-Expenditure-Only Political Action
Committees (Super PACs)
On March 26, 2010, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia held in
SpeechNow.org v. Federal Election Commission24 that contributions to PACs that make only independent expenditures—but not contributions—could not be constitutionally limited. As a result, these entities, commonly called super PACs, may accept previously prohibited amounts and sources of funds, including large corporate, union, or individual contributions used to advocate for election or defeat of federal candidates. Existing reporting requirements for PACs apply to super PACs, meaning that contributions and expenditures must be disclosed to the FEC.
Peter Thiel formed such a super PAC, gave it $15 million, which went for campaign activities for J.D. Vance, who had few ads or activities funded by his own campaign. Since the law forbids “coordination,” the super PAC puts its key information including polls and suggested messages in an obscure place online. It even posted its oppo research findings on Vance, so he could know what attacks might be made.
In other news: NYT says US shared intelligence with Ukraine that helped them target Russian generals.
Reuters says US has offered security assurances to Sweden if it seeks to enter NATO.
Defense News says some key congressional figures are now open to F16 sales to Turkey.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 14
The Pulitzer Prizes for 2021 will be announced May 9. Already I’m seeing excellent reporting that might win a year from now.
– WSJ today has two big stories — how NATO training has helped Ukraine and increased intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
– A Politico newsletter says Jake Sullivan has recruited a “nest of China hawks” at NSC.
– Wired tells how hackers have disclosed details about Russians.
– Tom Friedman has a good interview with John Arquilla.
– Russia’s Black Sea flagship has been damaged and evacuated.
– Politico reports complaints about yesterday’s Human Rights report.
– Marine Le Pen wants to reduce French role in NATO, questions aid to Ukraine.
– Russia warns against Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 7
– Politico report shows many agencies acting on Ukraine.
– WaPo details Biden’s “deliberate but impulsive” response to Ukraine.
– NYT says Russia is bringing in mercenaries with May 9 plan for victory.
– German intelligence reports intercepts of Russians talking of killing civilians.
– WaPo reports on the right-wing Azov Battalion fighting for Ukraine.
– WaPo says India media echo Russia.
– On the other hand, Politico says many lawmakers want permanent sanctions on Putin’s Russia.[My take: Russia can’t be defeated militarily in a conventional war. The fighting can’t end until Russia is willing, either because the costs are too high or it believes it can’t achieve more. Thinking strategically, the pro-Ukraine side needs to provide some relief to Russia if it agrees to a cease-fire. Similarly, a regime-change goal only prolongs the killing of Ukrainians.]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 5
– WSJ describes some of the US planning about release of intelligence information.
-Reuters reports US blockage of Russian debt payments.
– FP writer on the options for arms control now.
– NYT reports on China’s pro-Russia propaganda.
– In WSJ Walter Russel Mead discusses “Biden’s ugly options” in Ukraine. Of course they are the West’s ugly options as well.
The first option, helping Ukraine win, is the most emotionally appealing and would certainly be the most morally justifiable and politically beneficial, but the risks and costs are high. Russia won’t accept defeat before trying every tactic, however brutal, and perhaps every weapon, however murderous. To force Russia to accept failure in Ukraine, the Biden administration would likely have to shift to a wartime mentality, perhaps including the kind of nuclear brinkmanship not seen since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. With China and Iran both committed to weakening American power by any available means, a confrontation with the revisionist powers spearheaded by Russia may prove to be the most arduous challenge faced by an American administration since the height of the Cold War.
But the other two options are also bad. A Russian victory would inflict a massive blow to American prestige and the health of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, especially if the West were seen as forcing Ukraine to surrender to Russian demands. Freezing the conflict is also perilous, as this would presumably leave Russia holding even more Ukrainian territory than it did following the 2014 invasions of Crimea and the Donbas. It would be hard to spin this as anything but a partial victory for Russia—and Mr. Putin would remain free to renew hostilities at a time of his choosing.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 1
The big news of the day:
– NYT notes that Russia lacks a field commander for Ukraine; story has interesting tidbits about Ukraine military culture.
– Macron has fired his chief of military intelligence.
– NYT has background on Wagner mercenaries.
– Here’s text of British intelligence chief’s speech on Ukraine.
– DOD says aid to Ukraine is massive and speedy.
– Solomons PM says China won’t get military base.
Think about this: WOTR piece says maybe Putin didn’t plan war, just coercive diplomacy, until last minute. Another WOTR piece notes differences between defense experts and general public on security needs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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