Tag: Intelligence
Stevenson’s army, February 10
– This time, WH has better plans to evacuate a threatened country.
– Africom head sees “hand of Russia” in African coups.
– WSJ reports debate over new Iran nuclear deal.
Thomas Edsall says academic studies link populist support to status anxiety and loss of jobs through trade.
A group of Senators want intelligence sharing with Ukraine. A friend with long experience in intelligence sees problems: But intelligence sharing with Ukraine is not an easy call. Judging from the unclassified literature, it seems likely that Ukrainian intelligence is penetrated by the Russians. So, how do you share, how much, when, and with whom? Here are my guesses: You share only at a very high level, and only with professionals. Probably only with the military. If we and they are lucky, we have already trained them to receive and use what we pass. You leave an air gap between the “western” intelligence and whatever else they have. If we and they are lucky, the “western” equipment is already installed and tested. But you don’t exercise the equipment in Ukraine until the war is real, so as to limit what the Russian penetrations can learn and what advantage the Russian forces can gain as a result. And if you’re really serious, some American “trainers” come with the equipment — and stay there. Not “boots on the ground,” maybe, but “operatives in the ops center.” And if we and they are lucky, the operatives are neither killed nor captured. So, why the letter? To tell the bureaucrats that we have their back, both parties, if that last bit of luck does not come to pass.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 9
– WSJ touts US information warfare over Ukraine.
– Politico reports some intelligence officials think too much is being released.
– Russians deny promises to Macron.
– At FP, writer sees Xi-Putin statement as no big deal.
– Maybe hypersonic weapons can easily be defeated, but that technology is on the critical list.
– The FY23 budget was due yesterday, but the 2022 budget hasn’t been passed. Expect lengthy delays.
– Sanctions against Honduran president revealed.
– Updated version of WaPo report on Afghan evacuation gives more evidence supporting my view that a key factor was the organizational culture clash between a State Dept that always resists closing an embassy and was sympathetic to the destabilizing effects on the host nation government and a military that makes detailed, rigid plans without regard to diplomatic and psychological consequences — coupled with a White House that prefers hedging to binary choices.
CORRECTION: The stopgap spending bill runs to March 11, not April as I wrongly said yesterday.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 23
– UK says its intelligence sees Kremlin plot to install pro-Russian leader in Ukraine. NYT reports; here’s WaPo report. Baltic states have been shipping arms.
-WaPo reports NATO help.
– But Germany blocks transfer of German equipment.
–Biden is meeting with advisers at Camp David.
– Conservative Ross Douthat urges”retreat from Ukraine”
-LAT sees few options for US in Yemen.
-CARE reminds us of under-reported humanitarian crises.
– FP has several experts grading Biden’s foreign policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 21
– WSJ says US allows Baltics to transfer arms to Ukraine.
– FT says Taliban threatens Pakistan.
– Oath Keepers were armed for insurrection.
– Fred Kaplan analyzes Biden’s Ukraine gaffe.
– NYT says US special forces bombed a dam in Syria on “no hit” list. Senior officials had denied attack.
– In FA, SAIS prof Hal Brands says US is overstretched militarily.
– More on CIA assessment of Havana Syndrome.
– China demands end to foreign FONOPs.
On the 80the anniversary of the Wannsee conference,NYT remembers. I’ve been to the place where the meeting occurred. Here are the minutes of the meeting.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 20
– NYT explains how & why White House walked back Biden statements on Ukraine at news conference.
– BTW,the CIA director made a secret visit to the region shortly before SecState Blinken’s trip there.
– After CODEL to Kyiv, Senators are planning Ukraine support legislation.
– CIA says Havaan Syndrome does not seem to come from a foreign power’s worldwide effort. CNN has one report; WaPo another.
– WH released a new directive on NSA role in DOD cybersecurity. I think WSJ exaggerates the significance. In my view, this is just the latest in an administration planned clarification of duties within government. The bigger problem, as Lawfare noted last month, is that the US now has officials with overlapped authorities and only one is legally an “officer of the United States” with real authority. This question of authorities is an important one we’ll talk more about in class.
– It’s hard to show unity when leaders are seated 20 feet apart, but Russia and Iran tried that yesterday.Look at the photo!
-Amy Zegart discusses the role of nongovernmental sources doing spying.
– A think tank studying presidential transitions has a report on the Trump/Biden change.
– Deja vu: GOP plans rerun of 1994 campaign to capture Congress.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 7
– Shoot to kill order in Kazakhstan.
– New House Intel Ranking member wants cooperation.
– At FP, Chicago prof profiles insurrectionists.
– US travel ban on some Cubans.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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