Tag: Intelligence
Bottom of the barrel
Richard Grenell, Ambassador to Germany and impresario of the recent Belgrade/Pristina agreements that are expected to open air and train service between the two cities, is pulling up stakes. He is headed back to Washington to be Director of National Intelligence, the leader if not the boss of 17 US intelligence agencies with a budget of $50 billion. He will also be the principal intelligence advisor to the President.
This is extraordinary. A gay Evangelical and white nationalist, he is a “communications” (i.e. PR) guy with no intelligence experience who has accumulated a dismal record for offending Berlin. The ink on his Pristina/Belgrade agreements isn’t even dry. I won’t be surprised if they evaporate before effective implementation. Grenell pushed himself into the Balkans not to fix anything but rather in a blatant effort to catch the President’s eye by delivering some sort of international triumph. As soon as he had even a glint of that, off he goes to bigger and better things.
A lot bigger and better. President Trump has been unhappy with the intelligence community because it concluded that Russia interfered with the 2016 election and will do it again if not stopped. Trump has also been anxious to get evidence of Ukrainian interference in the election and dirt on former Vice President Biden and his son from Ukraine, efforts that resulted in impeachment. Had the intelligence community delivered what he wanted in Ukraine, Trump would not have needed Rudy Giuliani’s help.
The DNI job has been in “acting” hands since August. It is being reported that Grenell will also be acting. That avoids Senate confirmation, which could be difficult for Grenell. He was confirmed as Ambassador to Germany by a dismal vote of only 56-42. Acting status also gives the President stronger leverage over appointees. We can expect Grenell to toady 100% to Trump’s whims, helping him to parry intelligence community judgments that differ from the President’s predilections. This appointment–like Barr at Justice, Pompeo at State, and O’Brien at the National Security Council–is intended to solidify political control over key government agencies and ensure that they toe Trump’s erratic lines, no matter how far they stray from reality.
I suppose there have been more harmful appointments in this Administration, but this one is destined to be high on that scale. Grenell is a spinmeister, not a truth teller. The intelligence community will find itself in not only incompetent but ill-meaning hands. This would be the bottom of the barrel, if the barrel had a bottom.
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Stevenson’s army, February 12
– Last year I asked a group of friends with longtime experience in the US intelligence community whether I should be worried about Huawei. Sure, they said. But would China really use the company to spy on us? I asked. They responded, we would if we could. And now we know we did. That’s the story released by WaPo yesterday and on 3 pages today. And then last night, NSA O’Brien disclosed that Huawei already can access telecom networks.
-A few days ago I praised the Harris & Sullivan article calling for economics to play a bigger role in US national security strategy. Dan Drezner says, hold on,not so fast, and questions our ability to do economics smartly. Since I respect his views on so many topics, his points are worth considering.
– Duterte says begone to US military forces, triggering a 180 period ending our status of forces agreement. He’s cozying up to China.
– NYT says Trump has tentatively approved a deal with the Taliban.
– O’Brien defends Vindman dismissal.
– FP article says Trump Israel plan is like one Israel proposed in 1979.
– And New Hampshire? I say there’s now a better than 33% chance that the Democratic convention will take more than one ballot to choose a nominee next July in Milwaukee –the first such situation since the Democratic convention in 1952.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 11
– When even the Republican Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee says Trump’s new budget is “dead on arrival” and he won’t even have a hearing on it, you figure it must be true. In fact, all presidential budgets can be called DOA because what matters is what Congress does. But it’s also true that the presidential budget is the baseline from which puts and takes occur,and about 95% or more gets approved.
I found this helpful on defense plans. Was glad somebody discovered this change regarding Europe. And recommend 3 items from CSIS people: Kath Hicks suggesting how to cut defense wisely as well as analyses of the budget and its future implications.
OMB’s big package is here. Each agency has its own budget page. [I’m still waiting for an analysis of the international affairs budget [function 150].
WaPo says CIA has read encrypted communications of allies and adversaries for years.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 20
Cong. Schiff says the intelligence community, notably NSA, is withholding reports on Ukraine from Congress.
Here’s a map of Chinese projects around the world.
FP has the declassified report on the 1988 US downing of an Iranian passenger plane.
AU’s Audrey Cronin says we have legitimized assassinations.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 16
GAO has ruled that the delay in Ukraine aid was illegal. Here’s a story and the text of the judgment. This is the same procedure Sen.Bentsen and I used to block Sec. Cheney’s effort to kill the V-22 Osprey in 1991.
Politico says the administration does not want the annual state of the world hearing with the heads of the intelligence community to have any unclassified sessions — in order to avoid public contradictions of Trump.
CFR has another of those grand strategies for China relations that looks pretty good; has 22 pretty specific recommendations.
Monkey Cage has a good explainer of the Libya situation.
And here’s how NYT verified the Ukraine airplane video.
I missed this earlier edition:
– WaPo says Trump threatened Europeans with a 25% tariff on autos if they didn’t start the process under the Iran nuclear deal to restore sanctions.
-Iraqi prime minister says US troop presence will be decided by his successor.
– Look what Australia is doing about Huawei and 5G.
– NYT has good list of what’s in and not in new China trade agreement.
– WSJ doubts trade deal will meet its goals.
– New book by WaPo reporters depicts Trump as erratic and ill-informed.
– CFR has a new foreign policy jobs site..
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 19
– FP says one of the key reasons for a rash of Pentagon departures is the toxic environment created by Under Secretary Rood.
– Peter Feaver says public support for the US military is more fragile than expected.
– A Marine worries that the US is once again de-emphasizing the counter insurgency mission but it will be needed.
– CRS has a new report on intelligence community spending.
– Pay close attention to what Chinese diplomats are doing in their expanded role in UN organizations.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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