Tag: Iran
Kurdistan keeps reinventing itself
On Wednesday, SAIS hosted an event entitled “Kurdistan: Re-Inventing Itself, Yet Again.” Sasha Toperich, Senior Fellow and Director, Mediterranean Basin Initiative, Center for Transatlantic Relations, SAIS made opening remarks. Hemin Hawrami, Director, Foreign Relations Office, Kurdistan Democratic Party gave a keynote address, which was followed by a panel discussion. Rebeen Pasha, WYLN Senior Fellow, Mediterranean Basin Initiative, introduced and moderated the panel. Panelists included Hawrami and Salam Mohammad Islam, Chief Executive Director, Rwanga Foundation.
Toperich explained that Iraqi Kurdistan has a 600 mile front with ISIS and 1.8 million refugees/IDPs. Baghdad has not provided the KRG with the funding it promised. Iraqi Kurdistan is a flag without a country and a safe harbor for minorities affected by ISIS atrocities. The different groups in Iraq should be able to chart their own destinies while being reconciled with each other. If Iraq must remain united, the Kurds must be able to take out their own loans and revive their economy. He strongly supports the KRG’s independence referendum.
Hawrami stated that Iraqi Kurdistan is an important actor in a chaotic Middle East. Many of Iraqi Kurdistan’s challenges are external. ISIS is a symptom of sectarianism in Iraq and developments in Syria. A military response to ISIS is a short-term solution. ISIS was a terrorist organization but became a terrorist state when it captured Mosul. The KRG warned Baghdad about ISIS, but Maliki didn’t listen. When ISIS attacked the KRG, they aimed to:
- Gain control of disputed areas claimed by the KRG.
- Stop the independence referendum.
ISIS is a combination of Takfirism and Ba’athism. The KRG has a three-phase counter-ISIS strategy:
- Stopping ISIS.
- Rolling back ISIS.
- Defeating ISIS.
Over 1,600 Peshmerga sacrificed their lives to accomplish the first two goals. The KRG remains threatened; there are still daily skirmishes. But defeating ISIS requires liberating Mosul; the Iraqi government isn’t yet finished with Ramadi. Liberating Mosul requires boots on the ground (Sunnis and Peshmerga). But they will need more equipment. The Peshmerga have been unpaid for four months but are still fighting.
Iraqi Kurdistan has experienced three shocks since 2014:
- Maliki cut the budget for the KRG in February 2014.
- The influx of 1.8 million refugees and IDPs.
- Low oil prices.
Until 2013, Iraqi Kurdistan was the only region in the Middle East and North Africa with double-digit economic growth. Had it been independent, its rank in the areas of openness and governance would have been comparable with Malaysia and Indonesia. Unemployment was at 6% but is now ~25%. The poverty rate has jumped from 3% to 13%. The KRG is still learning how to govern; more still needs to be done. Kurdistan wants dialogue with Baghdad (not military conflict) but doesn’t want to be part of another decade of sectarianism and bad governance. Dialogue with Baghdad has improved; they now have a joint committee with Baghdad that meets monthly.
That is why they are holding the referendum (hopefully this year), which is not for immediate independence but asks what people want for their future. It will be for all citizens of Iraqi Kurdistan, including those in the diaspora.
The Kurds have been victims since Sykes-Picot but the borders are now only on maps. The KRG hopes these borders can be redrawn through peaceful coexistence and wants to add to the number of functioning political entities in the region. The KRG has become a safe haven for Iraqi Christians, most of whom now live in Kurdistan. Iraqi Kurdistan is a villa in the jungle that must be protected.
Pasha stated that he sees both challenges and opportunities for Iraqi Kurdistan. He grew up under Saddam and couldn’t imagine a future without Saddam. If we detach ourselves from the current situation, we can focus on Kurdistan’s future potential. Investing in young people is key for Iraqi Kurdistan’s future since 2/3 of the population is under 30.
Hawrami, in response to a question, said the Kurds believe the disputed territories are Kurdish and have waited ten years for censuses and referenda in these areas. Since the Iraqi Army’s retreat, the KRG has provided security but won’t impose a military status-quo. The KRG will hold special referenda in these areas for them to decide if they want to be part of Kurdistan. The KRG will also not accept interference by the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs). If these areas choose to join Iraqi Kurdistan, the KRG will provide them with special status based on power-sharing and equal opportunities.
Another audience member asked about KRG-Turkey relations. Hawrami explained that Turkey and the KRG have common interests; they have strong economic ties and the KRG supports the peace process in Turkey. Out of 3,300 foreign companies working in Iraqi Kurdistan, over 1,300 are Turkish. Turkey has not publicly rejected the independence referendum and recognizes that Iraqi Kurdistan adds to the stability of the region. Iraqi Kurdistan is not a threat to its neighbors.
A third audience member asked if it has become increasingly difficult for non-Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan. Hawrami responded that 1.4 million of the KRG’s IDPs are Arabs (Sunni and Shia) and the Kurds have provided them education. Their children are learning Kurdish. Thousands of Sunnis fled Ramadi during the military operation there and weren’t accepted in Baghdad because the PMUs feared they would change the demographics. They went to Kurdistan instead; the Kurds believe in freedom of religion. Islam has begun referring to citizens of Iraqi Kurdistan as Kurdistanis rather than Kurds, since 25% of the population is now non-Kurd.
Islam spoke about how effectiveness depends on efficiency. Since 1991, when Kurdistan achieved some self-governance, it has been at best effective but could have been more efficient and could have dealt with its challenges better. Instrospection is healthy for societies and Iraqi Kurdistan is still learning. In the early 1990s, CSOs in Iraqi Kurdistan were focused on humanitarian relief. They moved in the direction of democratization and development in the late 1990s, and especially post-2003.
The Rwanga Foundation’s vision is for education for all. They provide services, build capacity and design policies. They work on entrepreneurship and encourage youth to believe in themselves; youth are not only the leaders of tomorrow but also of today. Partnerships between CSOs, the government and the private sector will be important. Rwanga also provides humanitarian assistance in Sinjar. So far, Rwanga has completed 80 projects and has helped about 1 million people.
In the panel discussion, Pasha asked what is needed to rebuild liberated areas. Hawrami argued that ensuring security is paramount. The Peshmerga can do this, but more international assistance is needed for economic reconstruction. Islam noted that Sinjar needs more services for people to return.
Asked what Iraqi Kurdistan is doing to invest in good governance, Hawrami responded that the democratic process in Kurdistan began in 1992, but democracy also requires a culture of accountability and transparency. Iraqi Kurdistan was rural until the 1960s but the Ba’athists destroyed villages and moved people to urban camps. This transformed the people from producers to consumers. To increase productivity, the KRG has encouraged investment and boosted the private sector. The Kurds have institutions for accountability but democracy is an ongoing process. Many flaws remain. Fighting ISIS has made the Peshmerga stronger and the economic crisis will make the economy stronger because Kurdistan will enact reforms.
Hawrami noted that Iraqi Kurdistan looks to increase its trade relations with Iran, but won’t take sides in the regional sectarian conflict and won’t accept Iranian intervention in the disputed areas. Islam asserted that Kurdistan is on the right track, but there have been ups and downs. Developing the mentality of democracy takes a generation.
To conclude, Hawrami stated that the US must accept that the “one Iraq” policy is a failure and that Iraq is already divided. Washington must protect Kurdistan as a stable force in the region. Islam reiterated the importance of focusing on youth.
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Peace picks February 8-12
- The Syrian refugee crisis and the United States | Monday, February 8th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino have stoked fears among some Americans regarding the possible entry of Syrian refugees into the United States. Concerns exist that, along with refugees, members of the Islamic State and other terrorist organizations might enter the country and carry out attacks against the U.S. homeland. These fears, coupled with often vitriolic political rhetoric, have alarmed American Muslims. What is the true level of danger refugees pose? How can the United States best contribute to managing the Syrian refugee problem? Given the 2016 presidential elections, what options are politically viable? On February 8, the Center for Middle East Policy and the Governance Studies program at Brookings will host a discussion on the U.S. role in addressing the Syrian refugee crisis. The panel will include Elizabeth Ferris and William Galston of Brookings, experts on refugee resettlement and U.S. politics respectively, as well as Robert McKenzie, a new Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World visiting fellow whose research focuses on Muslim communities in the West. Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow and Research Director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, will provide introductory remarks and moderate the panel. Following the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions. This discussion is part of a series of Foreign Policy at Brookings events focusing on the refugee crisis and the U.S. and international community’s response.
- Cross-Straits Series: Conflict in the Taiwan Strait? | Tuesday, February 9th | 12:30-2:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Taiwan’s elections on January 16 resulted in both its new president and, for the first time, a majority of legislators being from pro-independence parties. This has raised concerns about how Beijing will react. The official China Daily stated after the election that if president-elect Tsai Ing-wen does not accept that Taiwan is part of China, she will be leading Taiwan in the direction of “conflicts and tension.” Underscoring the point, the mainland military recently conducted amphibious landing exercises along its coast opposite Taiwan. Would China actually use force against Taiwan? And under what circumstances? What are the current capabilities of China’s military? Does it have the ability to force Taiwan to unify with the mainland? This Atlantic Council event is part of the Cross-Straits Series of the Brent Scowcroft Center’s Asia Security Initiative, which examines strategic and current affairs surrounding cross-straits relations. Speakers include Roger Cliff, Atlantic Council Nonresident Senior Fellow, Tiffany Ma, Director of Political and Security Affairs at the National Bureau of Asian Research, and Thomas L. McNaugher, professor at Georgetown University. The moderator is Shannon Tiezzi, Managing Editor of The Diplomat.
- Inside the Iran Negotiations: A Conversation with Chief Negotiator Wendy Sherman | Tuesday, February 9th | 4:00-5:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | What was it like to be inside the room during the roller coaster saga of the historic nuclear deal with Iran? What role did personal relationships and domestic politics play in this landmark accord? What were the key moments that made success possible or could have threatened the deal? And what lessons can be learned from U.S.-Iranian negotiations? Join us for an extraordinary event as Chief U.S. Negotiator Ambassador Wendy Sherman takes us inside the room for an intimate look at the personalities, politics and negotiating dynamics that defined the nuclear agreement. Wendy Sherman, Director, President, and CEO of the Wilson Center, and Robert S. Litwak, Vice President for Scholars and Academic Relations at the Wilson Center, will also speak.
- Inside the Sieges: The Scope and Implications of Besieged Syria | Wednesday, February 10th | 11:30-1:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The images of emaciated children in the besieged Syrian town of Madaya drew international attention in January 2016. Meanwhile, the opposition Syrian High Negotiations Committee’s unanswered demand for lifting of sieges, as stipulated in UN Security Council resolution 2254, threatens to derail Syria peace talks in Geneva. Key international leaders’ calls for implementation of the resolution, aimed at ending the violence, have not resulted in access to besieged areas. On February 10, 2016, please join the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East for a discussion on the scope, scale, and policy implications of the ongoing siege crisis. Mohamed Katoub will share his experiences as a dentist and medical worker from the besieged Damascus suburb of Douma. Valerie Szybala will present the findings of the newly released Siege Watch report that indicates there are well over 1 million Syrians under siege in Syria, and that the Syrian government and its allies are the main parties besieging civilian populations. Jan Jaap van Oosterzee will examine the implications of the sieges, and Faysal Itani will moderate the discussion. Dr. Mohamed Katoub is the Public Relations Director for the United Medical Office of Eastern Ghouta. Valerie Szybala is the author of several influential reports including Slow Death: Life and Death in Syrian Communities under Siege and Assad Strikes Damascus. Jan Jaap van Oosterzee has been working on Middle East programs in various capacities with PAX, an international peace organization based in the Netherlands. Faysal Itani focuses on the war in Syria and its regional impact. Ambassador Frederic Hof specializes in the conflict in Syria.
- The future of securing global cities | Wednesday, February 10th | 2:00-3:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On February 10, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will convene a panel discussion to introduce Securing Global Cities, a new project based in Foreign Policy’s Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. Securing Global Cities will be co-chaired by Michael O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and General Ray Odierno, former Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army and JP Morgan Chase Senior Advisor. It is part of the Global Cities Initiative, a joint project of the Brookings Institution and JP Morgan Chase. The goal of the project is to help cities around the world improve the physical safety of their citizens from various forms of violence. The overarching motivation of the project is the belief that cities have much to learn from each other by analyzing systematically and sharing best practices that strengthen their roles in a globalized world, bolster their economies, and protect their communities and citizens. The project will identify different types of threats–from terrorists to narcotraffickers and other international criminal networks, gangs, insurgents, and abusive security forces–and examine the various tools that governments can deploy to address these diverse and complex problems. The tools will include reformed and strengthened police forces, justice systems, paramilitary and military institutions, intelligence capabilities, and a range of other instruments. The discussion will be moderated by Martin Indyk, executive vice president of Brookings. Following the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions. JP Morgan Chase is a donor to the Brookings Institution. Brookings recognizes the value it provides is in its absolute commitment to quality, independence and impact. Activities supported by its donors reflect this commitment. This event will be live webcast. Join the conversation on Twitter at #GlobalCities.
- Five Years In: The Legacy of the Arab Spring | Wednesday, February 10th | 2:15-5:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | During the past five years the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has seen dictators toppled, new terrorist movements seize large swaths of territory, civil wars waged, and the regional order recast. Amidst a region awash in this protracted turbulence that shows no signs of soon abating, this event will explore the lasting legacy of the Arab Spring as we approach its five-year anniversary. Please join us as we discuss the ways in which the fateful events of 2011 irreversibly changed the MENA region. This event is composed of two panels. The first panel is called The Makeup of Post-Arab Spring Politics. It will take place from 2:15 to 3:45. This panel will explore the most notable effects of the Arab Spring on political and governance issues in the MENA region. Panelists will seek to differentiate between developments that are passing phenomena and those that will have a lasting impact on the region’s political fabric. Speakers include Shadi Hamid, Senior Fellow for the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Amy Hawthorne, Deputy Director for Research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, Paul Salem, Vice President for Policy and Research at the Middle East Institute, and Robin Wright, Wilson Center-USIP Distinguished Fellow. The moderator will be Marina Ottaway, Middle East Fellow at the Wilson Center. The second panel is called Physical Destruction and Prospects for Reconstruction. It will take place from 4:00 to 5:30. This panel will analyze the physical toll incurred by five plus years of violent turmoil and will discuss the scale of damage sustained across the region and will evaluate the range of effects such damages will have on regional affairs during the years to come. Speakers include Richard Cincotta, Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and Director of the Global Political Demography Program at the Stimson Center, Marwa Daoudy, Assistant Professor in International Relations at Georgetown University, Nadim Khouri, Independent Researcher at the World Bank, and Erika Weinthal, Lee Hill Snowdon Professor of Environmental Policy and Associate Dean for International Programs at Duke University. The moderator will be Henri Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center.
- DHS: Progress in 2015, Goals for 2016—A Conversation with Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh J. Johnson | Thursday, February 11th | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Wilson Center as Secretary Jeh C. Johnson, the fourth Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, delivers his final State of Homeland Security address, entitled “DHS: Progress in 2015, Goals for 2016.” Secretary Johnson oversees the United States’ third largest Cabinet department and leads the nation’s efforts to counter a broad range of threats, from terrorism to natural disasters. Secretary Johnson’s remarks will be followed by a question & answer session with the Center’s Director, President & CEO Jane Harman.
- HFAC Subcommittee Hearing—Jordan: A Key U.S. Partner | Thursday, February 11th | 2:00-5:00 | Rayburn House Office Building | This hearing will be held by the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa. Witnesses include the Honorable Gerald M. Feierstein, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the State Department, Paige Alexander, Assistant Administrator for the Bureau for the Middle East at the U.S. Agency for International Development, and Fatema Z. Sumar, Regional Deputy Vice President of the Department of Compact Operations at the Millennium Challenge Corporation.
- Arab Voices on the Challenges of the New Middle East | Friday, February 12th | 9:00-10:15 | Carnegie Endowment | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is pleased to host a review of its first Arab Experts Survey. The results of the survey, conducted in English and Arabic, represent the views of more than one hundred accomplished political thinkers representing almost every Arab country and answer broad questions around terrorism and extremism, civil war and foreign intervention, sectarianism, corruption, and governance. The survey is part of Carnegie’s Arab World Horizons project, an effort to examine the social, political, and economic forces shaping the Arab world. Marwan Muasher, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Perry Cammack, Associate in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, and Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, will discuss the findings of the survey, and Joyce Karam, Washington Bureau Chief for Al-Hayat, will moderate. Join the conversation on Twitter with #ArabWorldHorizons. Registration will begin at 8:30 a.m. A light breakfast will be served. The discussion will begin promptly at 9:00 a.m.
- The Yemen Quagmire | Friday, February 12th | 12:00-1:30 | Johns Hopkins SAIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join us for a discussion with Amat Alsoswa, former Yemeni Cabinet Member, Leslie Campbell, NDI, Andrew Plitt, USAID, and Charles Schmitz, MEI, who will discuss the deepening complexity of the conflict, the growing humanitarian crisis, the challenges of delivering aid to a suffering population, and prospects for peace talks and an end to the fighting. Daniel Serwer, Senior Research Professor of Conflict Management at Johns Hopkins SAIS will moderate.
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Iranian aspirations
On Wednesday, the Wilson Center hosted ‘Iranian Public Opinion on Foreign Affairs on the Eve of Parliamentary Elections.’ Ebrahim Mohseni, Senior Analyst at the University of Tehran Center for Public Opinion Research, presented poll findings conducted in August 2015 and January 2016. William Miller, Senior Scholar at the Wilson Center, Paul Pillar, Researcher in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, and Robin Wright, Wilson Center-USIP Distinguished Fellow, added remarks following Mohseni’s presentation. Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, moderated.
Parliamentary elections in Iran take place in about a month. The survey is representative of a broad population, taking opinions from all across Iran. A high voter turnout is expected, with nearly 67 percent of the population anticipated to vote. Mohseni described the government’s strengths and weaknesses. Security and improving Iran’s relations with European countries are where citizens believe the government is doing a fine job. People are divided on whether the economy is improving. Citizens believe the government has not made sufficient progress at all when it comes to reducing unemployment. Mohseni believes the next parliament should try to focus on unemployment and economic problems, as there is big dissatisfaction throughout Iran on these issues. Providing solutions to these problems will promote stability.
Around 76 percent of the surveyed population supported it the Iran-US nuclear deal in August, but that number has since declined due to possible new US sanctions. Iranians are disappointed that all santions are not being lifted. Only 34 percent think that the US will live up to its end of the deal, and only 38 percent believe US-Iran relations will improve.
Almost two-thirds of the population thinks Iran should send military personnel to Syria. Fighting ISIS, protecting Shiite religious sites, preventing terrorists from nearing Iran’s borders, and protecting Syrian civilians were listed as reasons. Many also believe that helping out with the Syria situation will spread Iran’s regional influence while decreasing Saudi Arabia’s influence. Iran is split down the middle when it comes to potentially collaborating with the US against ISIS because people believe the US is not sincere in its efforts. They believe the US wants to increase its own influence in the Middle East, protect Israel, topple Assad, and decrease Iran’s standing in the region.
Wright explained that though Iran is still a revolutionary state, the passions of the revolutionary period are no longer relevant. Iran is now more practical. Iranian attitudes are very normal as the economy is the most important issue to citizens. She is interested in seeing a poll after the first round of elections.
Pillar agreed with Wright’s point, saying the Iranians really are similar to Americans when it comes to concerns about the economy. How Iran sees the US is how the US sees Iran: suspicions exist on both sides on whether promises will be upheld, though Iranians have more well-founded suspicions on the nuclear deal. Iranians’ expectations of the economic benefits are too high and the time frame in which they hope to see them realized infeasible.
Miller believes Iran’s civil society is both fairly open and revolutionary in attitude, which demonstrates the stability of the regime. These surveys provide assistance to US policymakers and add crucial data necessary to evaluate how Iranians perceive the US and its actions.
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The US, Europe and Iran
Umid Niayesh from Azerbaijan’s Trend news agency asked some good questions today regarding Iran-West ties in post-sanctions period. I answered.
Q: What do you think about the doctrine of “the West minus the United States,” which is followed by conservatives in Iran, in particular by Khamenei? Can it be a successful approach?
A: As the US is maintaining more sanctions (not imposed because of the nuclear issue), it is natural that the EU will move ahead faster. The EU also has a much stronger interest in Iranian energy resources.
Q: May the EU gradually replace China and Russia in Iran’s market in short term following removal of sanctions?
A: China is a major customer for Iran’s energy resources and a major supplier as well. Russia is far less important. There are many areas in which Iranians will prefer EU technology and investment over Russian competitors.
Q: May developing Iran-EU ties also lead to improving political ties? Can it also help to Iran-US ties?
A: The US will handle its own political ties with Iran. It is hesitant because of Iranian subversion in the Gulf states, human rights abuses and threats against Israel. The EU appears less reluctant.
Q: Iranian officials repeatedly say that Iran is open for economic ties with US, including presence of US businessmen and investors. What are the actual obstacles to this issue?
A: There are three big obstacles: continuing US sanctions levied for other than nuclear reasons, lack of diplomatic ties between the US and Iran, and American distrust of the Iranian courts and political system. You would have to be a brave investor to run that gauntlet.
Q: May West sacrifice its principles such as human rights for economic interests in ties with Iran?
A: I doubt the US will. The EU will be less exigent.
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Diminished West revisited
Hisham Melhem published a bold and compelling piece over the weekend about Western interactions with Iran that has garnered a great deal of praise from people I respect. Hisham lambasts the Italians for covering up nude statues during the visit of President Rouhani, mocks Rouhani for asking the Pope to pray for him, praises the French for insisting that any meal they serve has to include wine, excoriates the Supreme Leader for Holocaust denial, and decries the Iranian humiliation of American sailors. He appears to have convinced most that these recent incidents with Iran have diminished the West, perhaps irreversibly.
I think he is wrong on the merits, most notably the notion that anything that happened last week suggests diminished the West. If I have to live in a civilization in decline, let it be this one.
But let me respond to his points one-by-one.
On the statues and the wine: we all bend a bit to the preferences of our guests. I am a pork eater, but I wouldn’t serve it during a meal with Kosher or Muslim guests. I don’t know anyone who would. The French are entitled to their view that wine is essential to a meal, but I find that attitude rather intolerant and inhospitable. I bet their businessmen aren’t insisting on wine served at meals if their Iranian Airbus customers object. As for the statues, what the Italians did is at least as laughable as what John Ashcroft did in covering statues at the Justice Department, but that didn’t convince me America is in decline. Italian spinelessness shouldn’t convince anyone that the West is diminished.
As for the Pope, I bet Francis wishes he had a dollar for all the visitors who ask him to pray for them. What else does one ask of the Pope?
The parts of Melhem’s lamentation that have some merit are the complaint about showing photographs of the US sailors, who so far as I can tell really did violate Iran’s territorial integrity, as well as the complaint about Khamenei’s Holocaust denial.
My understanding is that display of prisoners is a violation of 1949 Geneva convention. The Americans should have objected, vigorously. I take it they did not because they were relieved to get them back quickly after they entered Iranian territory and did not want to undermine those who had made the arrangements for their return. That is screwy, as we need the Iranians reminded that the nuclear deal, and more generally Tehran’s return to the international community, entails responsibilities as well as privileges.
On the Holocaust, I thought Khamenei’s video seemed less committed to denial than previous utterances. He says “it is not clear whether the core of this matter is reality or not… Even if it is a reality, it is not clear how it happened.” That’s far from a resounding denial and might even be interpreted as an implicit retreat from it. I won’t be satisfied until Iran accepts not only the reality of the Holocaust but also one of the consequences: creation of the state of Israel. But listening to your enemies is at least as important as denouncing them. I’ll leave to Iran experts whether I have misheard.
I realize of course that Hisham’s tirade is in defense of the West and its liberal values. But I don’t think on close examination that it works. Insisting that others accept your standards and beliefs is not a liberal value. Listening to them and talking with them about why we believe what we do is. But that won’t attract anywhere near the same notice as a broadside.
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Peace picks February 1-5
- Fifteen Years of Fighting Terror: Lessons for the Candidates | Monday, February 1st | 1:00-2:30 | Open Society Foundations | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Despite a significant investment of personnel and money, current policies have mostly failed to stop violent extremism and instability from spreading across the Middle East and North Africa. Saferworld, a London-based NGO that works for peace in more than 20 countries, will release three reports analyzing lessons from 15 years of counterterror and stabilization efforts in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen. The reports conclude that the U.S. approach to counterterrorism, stabilization, and state building has been counterproductive—and could be improved by focusing strategically on peace, relying less on the military, taking a tougher line on bad governance, and working more closely with civil society. An expert panel will discuss the policy and operational impacts of the recommendations derived from these case studies. The panel discussion will be followed by Q & A. Speakers include Larry Attree, Head of Policy for Saferworld, Sarah Chayes, Senior Associate for the Democracy and Rule of Law Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Richard Fontaine, President of the Center for New American Security. Scott Shane (moderator) is a national security reporter for the New York Times.
- Pin-Down Diplomacy: How Wrestling Promotes US-Iran Ties | Tuesday, February 2nd | 9:30-11:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Much as “ping-pong diplomacy” helped break the ice between the United States and China in the 1970s, “pin-down diplomacy” between the wrestlers of the United States and Iran has been instrumental in changing perceptions about Iranian and American society, and building bridges between sports communities and ordinary citizens. The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to a discussion about athletic exchanges between the United States and Iran and the role they have played and can continue to play in promoting better understanding between the peoples of these two long-time adversaries. Speakers include Greg Sullivan, Senior Adviser for Strategic Communications and Public Diplomacy in the State Department’s Office of Iranian Affairs. James Ravannack has been President of USA Wrestling, the national governing body of amateur wrestling in the United States, since August 2006. Christina ‘Kiki’ Kelley is Team Leader for the US Men’s Greco-Roman wrestling team for the Olympic cycle culminating in Rio 2016. Bahman Baktiari is Executive Director of the Salt Lake City-based International Foundation for Civil Society, an organization that explores fundamental social and political shifts underway throughout the Middle East and North Africa and focuses on bridging cultural gaps and fostering a discourse of understanding. Barbara Slavin, Acting Director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council will moderate.
- Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz on Iran’s Nuclear Agreement | Tuesday, February 2nd | 11:00-12:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The International Atomic Agency (IAEA) has certified that Iran has curbed its nuclear program by taking a number of steps including dismantling two-thirds of its installed centrifuge capacity, reducing its stockpile of enriched uranium and removing the core of its Arak heavy water reactor. As a result, the U.S. has lifted nuclear-related sanctions. Please join us for a discussion with Secretary Moniz on exactly what steps Iran has taken, how the United States can be confident that Iran’s breakout time to a nuclear weapon has been extended to at least one year, what lies ahead for the nuclear deal and what challenges remain.
- Implications of the Collapse of Oil Prices for the Middle East | Tuesday, February 2nd | 3:00-4:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The collapse of the oil prices has shocked both producers and consumers worldwide. As the most important producing region of the world, the Middle East has been particularly affected; state revenues are down, and cutthroat competition for market share and low global demand translates into greater challenges and uncertainty. The regional economic outlook is unclear, and questions remain about the potential long-term impact of sustained low oil prices. Three experts will analyze the geopolitical and financial aspects of the sharp decline in oil prices on both importing and exporting countries in the Middle East. Speakers include David Gordon, Senior Advisor at Eurasia Group, Aasim M. Husain, Deputy Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge, Lead Economist at the World Bank. Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, will moderate the event.
- Iranian Public Opinion on Foreign Affairs on the Eve of Parliamentary Elections | Wednesday, February 3rd | 10:00-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Ebrahim Mohseni, Senior Analyst at the University of Tehran Center for Public Opinion Research will present findings from a new study of Iranian public opinion on the upcoming Iranian parliamentary elections, regional security issues, and expectations from the JCPOA. Three experts on Iran will comment on the survey results and discuss prospects for the February 26 elections, highlighting possible domestic, regional, and international implications. Panelists include William Miller, Senior Scholar at the Kennan Institute and the Wilson Center, Paul Pillar, Researcher of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, and Robin Wright, Wilson Center-USIP Distinguished Fellow. Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center will moderate.
- Kurdistan: Re-Inventing Itself, Yet Again | Wednesday, February 3rd | 10:00-11:30 | Center for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins SAIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND | This year will be a difficult year for the people of Kurdistan. The crash in oil prices, the unrelenting war against ISIS, and the presence of 1.8 million Syrian refugees and displaced Iraqis have precipitated a dire financial crisis for the Kurdistan Regional Government. Join us for a discussion on how to move forward, both regionally and internationally, in light of these challenging times facing Kurdistan. Sasha Toperich, Senior Fellow and Director of the Mediterranean Basin Initiative CTR SAIS will make opening remarks. Hemin Hawrami, Head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party Foreign Relations Office, will offer the keynote address. Panelists include Salam Mohammad Islam, Chief Executive Director at the Rwanga Foundation, and Awat Mustafa, Senior Board Member and Head of Operations and Projects at the Barzani Charity Foundation. Rebeen Pasha, WYLN Senior Fellow at the Mediterranean Basin Initiative will moderate.
- North Korea’s fourth nuclear test: How will Pyongyang’s neighbors and the U.S. respond? | Wednesday, February 3rd | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | North Korea’s recent nuclear test and possible upcoming satellite launch underscore the increasing dangers posed by North Korea’s weapons development program and its implications for international security and the integrity of the non-proliferation regime. The United States and its partners in Northeast Asia must develop and execute a coordinated strategy to address these ever larger risks, but will differences among the relevant countries prevent realization of a shared strategy? What are the longer-term implications should North Korea sustain its weapons development? On February 3, the John L. Thornton China Center and the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will host an event to assess the wider implications of North Korea’s recent nuclear test, weigh the possible responses by the Republic of Korea, Japan, and China, and then consider the impact on U.S. policy. The event will be moderated by Senior Fellow Richard Bush, and the panelists include Senior Fellows Katharine H.S. Moon, Jonathan Pollack, and Sheila Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations. After the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.
- Turkey’s politics and foreign policy: Bridging the populism/realism gap | Thursday, February 4th | 3:30-5:00 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), populism has become a pervasive feature of the “new” Turkey. In the latest Turkey Project Policy Paper, Nora Fisher Onar of George Washington University’s Institute for Middle East Studies explores the tension between populism and realism as a driver of uncertainty in Turkey’s domestic and foreign affairs. The paper examines the sources, evolution, and consequences of AKP populism since 2002, including the problematic disconnect between anti-Western domestic rhetoric and the recent need for pro-Western pragmatism as Turkey’s regional ambitions have been confronted by the disorder spilling across its borders. On February 4, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings (CUSE) will host a panel discussion to explore the tone and substance of Turkey’s politics and foreign policy as the country emerges from a polarizing electoral cycle. Fisher Onar will present the conclusions of her new paper, “The Populism/Realism Gap: Managing Uncertainty in Turkey’s Politics and Foreign Policy.” Following her remarks, Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Alan Makovsky of the Center for American Progress, and Kadir Ustun of the SETA Foundation will offer their perspectives. The discussion will be moderated by Brookings TUSIAD Senior Fellow Kemal Kirişci. After the program, panelists will take questions from the audience.
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