Tag: Iran
This week’s peace picks
Though Americans are focused on domestic politics, there are interesting events this week dealing with a variety of national and international issues.
1. U.S. Public Opinion Toward Arabs and Islam: How “The Video Incident” May Affect U.S.-Muslim Relations, Monday October 8, 10:30 PM – 12:00 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Falk Auditorium
Speakers: Tamara Cofman Wittes, William A. Galston, Hisham Melhem, Shibley Telhami
A provocatively offensive film and violent demonstrations protesting it have once again roiled the relationships between Americans, Arabs and Muslims. In both the United States and the volatile transition states of North Africa, popular reactions have been swift, severe and complicated by domestic politics. But beyond the partisan scorekeeping and the loudly raised voices, how have these recent events changed the way the American public views Arab and Muslim communities? Within the emerging democratic Arab states, how has the furor over the video altered the public debate regarding freedom of speech, civil liberties and other constitutional rights? Finally, how are these issues examined within the context of religious expression, pluralism and tolerance—values that are central to American identity?
On October 8, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World at Brookings will host a discussion on these questions and unveil a new University of Maryland public opinion poll examining attitudes just days after violence erupted in Libya and elsewhere in the Middle East. The poll, conducted by Nonresident Senior Fellow Shibley Telhami, gauges American public attitudes toward Arabs and Muslims and toward U.S. foreign policy in the region. Panelists include Brookings Senior Fellow William A. Galston, the Ezra K. Zilkha chair in Governance Studies; Hisham Melhem, Washington bureau chief of Al Arabiya News; and Telhami, principal investigator of the poll and the Anwar Sadat chair for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland. Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will moderate the discussion.
Participants can follow the conversation on Twitter using hashtag #USArabViews. After the program, panelists will take audience questions.
Register for this event here.
2. Is There a Political Solution to the Afghan Conflict?, Tuesday October 9, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, SEIU Building
Venue: SEIU Building, 1800 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Omar Samad, Shamila Chaudhary, Arif Rafiq, Marvin Weinbaum
With the military involvement of the U.S. and its NATO allies winding down in Afghanistan, there have been stepped up efforts to explore the possibility of reaching reconciliation with the insurgency. Some officials and independent observers have cited positive signs of interest on the part of the Taliban in a power-sharing arrangement. Others have questioned the Taliban leadership’s interest in pursuing a settlement or if the objective conditions exist for concluding an agreement. At stake is whether Afghanistan will be faced after 2014 with continued fighting that tests the mettle of its security forces in what could become a brutal civil war, or can be stabilized with a political solution that is inclusive and satisfies the country’s various ideological and ethnic groups.
Register for this event here.
3. Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan, Tuesday October 9, 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM, American Security Project
Venue: American Security Project, 1100 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005, Suite 710W
Speakers: Matt Freear, Nick Lockwood, David H. Young, Joshua Foust
Join us for a fact-based discussion with leading experts on counterinsurgency. As the war in Afghanistan comes to a close, the US strategy is focusing on the transition to Afghan security responsibility. We will discuss how the transition is proceeding, how counterinsurgency has evolved and what to expect from the local Afghan security forces.
RSVP for this event to events@americansecurityproject.org.
4. America’s Other Army: The U.S. Foreign Service and 21st Century Diplomacy, Tuesday October 9, 6:00 PM – 7:00 PM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006, B1 Conference Room
Speakers: Nicholas Kralev
Kralev has been given unprecedented access to the inner sanctum of American diplomacy in Washington and around the world. Also the author of Decoding Air Travel: A Guide to Saving on Airfaire and Flying in Luxury, Kralev will be speaking on his latest work- America’s Other Army. He will share behind-the-scenes insights on how the work of American diplomats affects the daily lives of millions of people around the world, and examine whether the Foreign Service is equipped to address the challenges of the 21st century.
Register for this event here.
5. Youth Bulge, Public Policy, and Prospects for Peace in Pakistan, Wednesday October 10, 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Speaker: Abiodun Williams, Moeed Yusuf, Edward Rhodes, Mehtab S. Karim, Nasim Zehra, Saleem Ranjha, Eric Manes, Mohsin Khan, Philip Auerswald, Ammar Anees Malik, Asad Majid Khan, Andrew Wilder, Ifran Malik, Kalsoom Lakhani, Shamila Chaudhary, Peter Stearns, M Nizamuddin, Jack Goldstone
Pakistan has been in the limelight since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. While there has been plenty of it, the debate and policy analyses on the country have focused on the immediate concerns linked to extremism and terrorism. Yet, questions about the long term economic, political, and social health remain just as critical and will ultimately determine whether Pakistan stabilizes as a medium sized, stable, and moderate country or presents itself as a ticking time bomb that is a constant source of worry for the world. No other agent of change will be more relevant in this regard that the country’s bloated youth cohort.
It is surprising that for all the talk about Pakistan’s importance, very little is said or written about its upcoming generation. This is despite the fact that over 110 million of the 180-odd million Pakistanis today are under the age of 29 of whom over 50 million are classified as youth between ages 15-29. Their political preferences, their role in national development, and the avenues for Pakistan to accrue the demographic dividend are hardly understood. Given that this segment of Pakistani society will ultimately determine the country’s destiny, with its attendant impact on internal and regional peace and security, this is an obvious void that needs to be filled.
The School of Public Policy at George Mason University (GMU) and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) are jointly organizing a one-day conference focusing on the Pakistani youth, public policy options, and the prospects for peace in the long run. The conference will feature a group of leading experts, including young Pakistanis and Pakistani-Americans who will discuss the role of Pakistani youth in national development, the role of education in youth development, outlook of young Pakistani Americans towards Pakistan, and how all of these factors can contribute to peace.
6. Arab Transitions to What?, Wednesday October 10, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons
Speakers: Eva Bellin, Tamara Wittes, Daniel Brumberg, Marc Lynch
Three leading political scientists will discuss the political transitions in the Arab World since the region’s uprisings. A light lunch will be served.
Register for this event here.
7. Countering Radical Narratives through Cooperation with Pakistani Civil Society, Wednesday October 10, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, Heritage Foundation
Venue: Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington, DC 20002, Lehrman Auditorium
Speakers: Hedieh Mirahmadi, Mehreen Farooq, Knox Thames, Lisa Curtis
Rising extremism in Pakistan has drawn attention to the need for engagement with moderate Muslim networks and civil society organizations that can effectively counter radical narratives and decrease the pool of recruits for militant organizations. In Pakistan’s Civil Society: Alternative Channels to Countering Violent Extremism, the World Organization for Resource Development and Education (WORDE) argues that over the last decade, U.S. policymakers have focused most of their attention on engaging with government, military, and intelligence establishments, to the exclusion of civil society actors.
Calling for renewed engagement between the United States and Pakistan’s vibrant civil society, the report offers a comprehensive study based on in-depth fieldwork in 35 cities and villages across Pakistan and interviews with over 100 civil society activists, former militants, jirga members, and religious scholars. The report concludes that traditional Muslim networks buffer the rise of extremist activity and offers suggestions how U.S. policymakers and the Pakistani American community can help rebuild U.S.-Pakistan relations by actively supporting these networks.
Join us for a launch of this groundbreaking report by two of the report’s authors as well as commentary by a leading expert on religious freedom issues in Pakistan.
Register for this event here.
8. Democratic Crisis in Sri Lanka: The Threat to Rule of Law in South Asia’s Oldest Democracy, Wednesday October 10, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, East-West Center
Venue: East-West Center in Washington, 1819 L Street NW, Washington, DC, Sixth Floor Conference Room
Speakers: Saliya Pieris
The defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam by the Sri Lankan government, ending thirty years of war, has resulted in relative peace after decades of terrorism, violence, and destruction. However Sri Lanka’s years of civil war, coupled with systematic attacks on its democratic institutions by successive governments, has placed what was once one of Asia’s model democracies at risk; jeopardizing the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary and the freedom of its people. These developments have not gone unnoticed. In March 2012 the United States successfully introduced a resolution at the United Nations Human Rights Council expressing its concerns about the situation—a move which was strongly criticized within Sri Lanka.
In this seminar, Saliya Pieris will seek to explain how developments in Sri Lanka, beginning with the executive Presidential Constitution in 1978 and tracing through the war with Tamil militant groups and its after-effects, have contributed toward the serious rule of law challenges faced by the country today. Among these challenges are the issues of enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrests and detentions, suppression of the opposition, and the breakdown of national institutions such as the legislature, the judiciary and the free media. Mr. Pieris will discuss the role that can be played by the government and the people of Sri Lanka, and the international community, including the United States and India, to reverse this threat and establish strong rule of law in Sri Lanka.
Register for this event here.
9. Model, Resource or Outlier? Does it Matter? – What Effect Has the U.S. Constitution Had on the Recently-Adopted Constitutions of Other Nations?, Thursday October 11, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Heritage Foundation
Venue: Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington, DC 20002, Lehrman Auditorium
Speakers: Istvan Stumpf, Jeremy Rabkin, Ron Rotunda, Emilia Versteeg, Edwin Meese III
The United States Constitution, the world’s oldest written design of government, was a novel political development in the 18th Century. No nation previously had adopted a written instrument to create and limit its national government. But it has been more than 200 years since our Constitution (and the Bill of Rights) came into being. Numerous other nations have adopted their own written organic political instruments since then. Have those nations looked to the U.S. Constitution as a model or a resource for their own constitutions, or has the U.S. Constitution become an outlier in the world? If the latter, what does that say about the structure and substance of our Constitution and how it is considered in the international community?
Register for this event here.
10. The Politics of Identity in Tajikistan, Thursday October 11, 3:00 PM – 5:00 PM, Rethink Institute
Venue: Rethink Institute, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002, Suite 1125
Speaker: Nuriddin T. Shamsov, Marlene Laruelle, Vladimir Fedorenko, Bayram Balci
In the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan faced enormous challenges while trying to forge a new Tajik identity. It inherited dysfunctional and obsolete political and economic institutions that were not suited to deal with new challenges of a multiethnic society, religious extremism, and civil disorder. Tajikistan’s current identity issues and social cleavages are the very products of this difficult transformational era. So, what does it mean to a be a Tajik national nowadays? This panel aims to address this question and shed light into identity-building process in Tajikistan.
Register for this event here.
11. Arab Youth: A Look at the Future, Thursday October 11, 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Dalia Mogahed, Marina Ottaway, Rami Khouri, Vivian Lopez
Young people between the ages of fifteen and twenty-four represent nearly one-fifth of the population of the Middle East and North Africa. This group has played a central role in shaking up the old order, and while so far they have not been able to shape the policies of the new regimes, it remains key to the outcome of transitions in the region. A Generation on the Move, a study cosponsored by The Issam Fares institute at the American University in Beirut and UNICEF, offers important insights on the aspirations and problems of Arab youth. The study includes polling data that reveals further information about this demographic.
Register for this event here.
13. The Ayatollah’s Nuclear Gamble: the Human Cost of Military Strikes against Iran’s Nuclear Facilities, Friday October 12, 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM, Atlantic Council
Venue: Atlantic Council, 1101 15th Street NW, Washington, DC 20005, 11th Floor
Speakers: Khosrow B. Semnani, Barbara Slavin, Haleh Esfandiari
Khosrow Semnani will present the findings of his new report, “The Ayatollah’s Nuclear Gamble,” which offers a detailed, scientific discussion of the human and environmental consequences of a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. The report and the discussion will highlight a largely overlooked issue in the intensifying public debate in the United States over the wisdom of using military force to try to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Register for this event here.
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How do you say fast and furious in Arabic?
I’m surprised the American-imposed limits on arms transfers to the Syrian opposition from Qatar and Saudi Arabia are front page news today in the New York Times. It has been common knowledge for some time that the United States does not want shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons (man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS) transferred to Syrian rebels. Anti-tank weapons are likewise blocked.
I thought it obvious why. But apparently not, so let’s review the merits of the case. These weapons pose a serious threat to commercial aircraft and other civilian targets. Washington does not want to transfer weapons that fall into extremist hands and are then used against Americans. “Fast and furious” comes to mind–the scandal surrounding a transfer of guns to Mexican drug cartels in order to track them that ended in the murder of American border patrol agent. So, too, does the Washington-sponsored mujahideen effort against the Soviets in Afghanistan, which armed radical Islamist forces that are now fighting against the Americans.
Rumint has it that there are hundreds of thousands of MANPADs already in circulation. If so, it is hard to understand how none have made it into Syria. I am told that American ones come with a difficult-to-replace 90-day battery. If effective, that would make them relatively unattractive. I don’t know whether Russian, Chinese, Iranian, British and other systems have similar immobilizing measures. There have been a number of incidents in which MANPADS have been used against civilian aircraft: in Rhodesia, Georgia, Sri Lanka, Kenya and Iraq. Some attempts were successful, others not. It does not take a lot of imagination to picture why officials in Washington would worry about MANPADS getting into the wrong hands.
Anti-tank weapons come in a bewildering variety, wire-guided and not. Some seem to have made their way to Syria, where the rebels have often destroyed the regime’s tanks. I have a hard time understanding why Washington would worry much about the transfer of these weapons, especially if they are already in theater. It would of course be wiser to transfer them to more reliable people, but war doesn’t allow a lot of fine distinctions to be made.
A birdie tells me that the Syrian opposition is getting all the AK-47s and other “light” weapons it needs. It is not doing them a whole lot of good. The Syrian army is using artillery, tanks, snipers and the occasional aircraft to project force far beyond the range the rebels can target effectively when they shoot back.
The real question for Washington at this point is whether to allow the Syrian opposition to get MANPADS, which it would use to enforce a de facto no-fly zone over the areas that it controls. This could level the playing field and allow the opposition to hold on to liberated areas. I haven’t been enthusiastic about the arming of the opposition, not the least because it strengthens extreme Islamist and other anti-democratic forces that should not inherit Syria from the Asad regime. But with the civic opposition yesterday demonstrating in favor of arming Free Syrian Army, it is hard to oppose a shift in Washington’s stance that would allow MANPADS with appropriate self-limiting technology and anti-tank weapons to reach it.
U.S. government officials have been insisting that they draw the line at “lethal” assistance, presumably to bolster their so far unsuccessful efforts to turn the Russians and Chinese around on Syria and allow a UN Security Council resolution with teeth to pass. But with Iran, Hizbollah and the Russians pouring arms and men into Asad’s efforts to crush the rebellion and Syria repeatedly firing artillery into the territory of NATO-member Turkey, isn’t it time to consider leveling the playing field, as the diplomats say?
If that shift takes place, we have to recognize that there is a real possibility that the weapons will some day be used us. How do you say “fast and furious” in Arabic?
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What is happening today besides the debate
This is not a day for foreign policy. We are all too busy getting ready for the first presidential debate tonight. The right is preparing by reminding us all that President Obama is black. That’s useful to shore up white male support in western Pennsylvania and Ohio. Obama and his supporters are more anxious to suggest he is not so good at this debating stuff. Romney is good he says.
The world has more interesting things going on. If you are curious, try these:
1. Georgian President Saakashvili has admitted electoral defeat and will accept, contrary to expectations, seeing his party go into opposition.
2. Iranians have held a massive demonstration protesting the devaluation of the rial and calling on the Islamic Republic to forget about Syria and take care of its own citizens.
3. The independent Serbian broadcaster B92 is airing a series dubbed “Patriotic Pillage” documenting abuses, smuggling and other offences in northern Kosovo.
4. The Syrian opposition is trying to liberate Aleppo, the country’s largest city, resorting to bomb attacks that are unfortunately fulfilling the regime’s claim of terrorism.
5. The Americans are said to be giving up on negotiations with the Taliban, which appear never to have really gotten off the ground.
6. People have started noticing that most of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s campaign financing come from wealthy Americans, some of whom also back Mitt Romney.
These are all more interesting in my view than the debate is likely to be, but you know I’ll be watching anyway!
PS: I should have included in this list Bashar al Assad’s need to send troops to his Lattakia, reportedly to quell fighting between pro- and anti-regime Alawite militias. Not clear whether it is true, but if it is it could be important. You know you are in trouble when…
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This week’s peace picks
There are good choices this week including the kickoff presidential debate.
1. How Should the Next American President Engage the World?, Monday October 1, 6:30 PM – 8:00 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: David Rothkopf, Jessica Tuchman Matthews, Thomas Friedman, John Ikenberry, Robert Kagan
Foreign Policy’s David Rothkopf will moderate a debate with Thomas Friedman, John Ikenberry, Robert Kagan, and Jessica T. Mathews. This debate, the second in a three-part series sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment, will focus on one of the key issues in this year’s election—How should the next American president engage the world?
Register for this event here.
2. Building Inclusive Societies: Transatlantic Perspectives on Multiculturalism and Integration, Tuesday October 2, 8:30 AM – 12:30 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, The Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, 20036, Kenney Auditorium
Speakers: Francois Rivasseau, Rokhaya Diallo, Kubra Gumusay, Nasar Meer, Michael Privot, Emmanuel Kattan, Sonya Aziz, Eduardo Lopez Busquets, Justin Gest
Emerging European and American experts from the spheres of academia, policy making and the media will discuss their experiences and perspectives on this critical issue, including what Europe and the U.S. can learn from each other’s models of multiculturalism and integration. They will consider the challenges that both sides face in reducing anti-immigrant sentiment and improving levels of civic engagement among youth, particularly within emerging demographic groups.
RSVP for this event to Delegation-USA-EU-Events@eeas.europa.eu.
3. Women After the Arab Awakening, Tuesday October 2, 8:45 AM – 1:00 PM, Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004, Fifth Floor
Speakers: Dalia Ziada, Omezzine Khélifa, Rihab Elhaj, Fahmia Al Fotih, Hala Al Dosari, Honey Al Sayed, Gabool Almutawakel, Hanin Ghaddar, Yassmine ElSayed Hani, Haleh Esfandiari, Rangita de Silva de Alwis
9:00 – 11:00am PANEL 1: Today’s View from the Ground; Dalia Ziada – Egypt, Executive Director, Ibn Khaldun Center for Development Studies; Omezzine Khélifa – Tunisia, Politician and Advisor, Ministry of Tourism; Rihab Elhaj – Libya, Co-founder and Executive Director, New Libya Foundation; Fahmia Al Fotih – Yemen, Communication analyst and youth focal point analyst, United Nations Population Fund; Hala Al Dosari – Saudi Arabia, Ph.D. candidate in health services research; Moderator: Haleh Esfandiari, Director, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
11:15 – 1:00pm PANEL 2: Tomorrow’s Prospects for Women in the Region; Honey Al Sayed – Syria, Director, Syria Program, Nonviolence International; Gabool Almutawakel – Yemen, Co-Founder, Youth Leadership Development Foundation; Hanin Ghaddar – Lebanon, Managing Editor, NOW News; Yassmine ElSayed Hani – Egypt, Independent Journalist, Foreign Desk, Al Akhbar daily newspaper; Moderator: Rangita de Silva de Alwis, Director, Global Women’s Leadership Initiative, Woodrow Wilson Center
4. The Missing Link: How Can the Pakistani Diaspora Improve U.S.-Pakistan Ties?, Tuesday October 2, 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM, Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004, Sixth Floor
Speaker: Irfan Malik, Aakif Ahmad
According to research produced by the Asian American Center for Advancing Justice, Pakistani-Americans are the second-fastest-growing Asian-American ethnic group. They are represented in a variety of professional fields, from medicine and accounting to construction and transport, and are known for their affluence and philanthropy. How can they help improve U.S.-Pakistan relations? What can they offer, and how can their resources and expertise be better tapped? This briefing marks the release of a series of recommendations, formulated by a working group of diaspora members convened by the Wilson Center.
5. Iraq Energy Outlook, Wednesday October 3, 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 Conference Room
Speakers: Fatih Birol
The CSIS Energy and National Security Program is pleased to host Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist and Director of Global Energy Economics at the IEA, to present highlights from the IEA’s recent World Energy Outlook Special Report, the Iraq Energy Outlook.
Iraq is already the world’s third-largest oil exporter. It has the resources and intention to increase its oil production vastly. Contracts are already in place.Will Iraq’s ambitions be realised? And what would the implications be for Iraq’s economy and for world oil markets? The obstacles are formidable: political, logistical, legal, regulatory, financial, lack of security and sufficient skilled labour. One example: in 2011, grid electricity could meet only 55% of demand.
The International Energy Agency has studied these issues with the support and close co-operation of the government of Iraq and many other leading officials, commentators, industry representatives and international experts. The report examines the role of the energy sector in the Iraqi economy today and in the future, assesses oil and gas revenues and investment needs, provides a detailed analysis of oil, gas and electricity supply through to 2035, highlighting the challenges of infrastructure development and water availability, and spells out the associated opportunities and risks, both for world oil markets and for Iraq’s economy and energy sector.
RSVP for this event to energy@csis.org.
6. Iran: Economic Troubles and International Sanctions, Wednesday October 3, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004, Fifth Floor
Speakers: Bijan Khajehpour, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, Suzanne Maloney
By talking about such complexities (existence of a large grey economy, regional interdependencies, deep-rooted merchant tradition, existence of semi-state economic institution etc.), the speakers will address the issue why sanctions do not have the intended result in Iran. Lunch will be served.
Register for this event here.
7. Post-Referendum South Sudan: Political Violence, New Sudan and Democratic Nation-Building, Wednesday October 3, 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, The Bernstein-Offit Building, 1717 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC, 20036, Room 736
Speaker: Christopher Zambakari
Christopher Zambakari, doctoral student in the Law and Policy Program at Northeastern University, will discuss this topic.
RSVP for this event to itolber1@jhu.edu.
8. Breeding the Phoenix: An Analysis of the Military’s Role in Peacebuilding, Wednesday October 3, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, Truland Building, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22201, Room 555
Speaker: George F. Oliver, Ho Won Jeong, Solon Simmons, Dennis Sandole
There are numerous professional groups and individuals working for world peace. The reality is, however, that wars between nations or within nations still cause untold human deaths and casualties. World peace, a condition where war no longer affects human societies, is a long way off. This research focuses on how to end wars and restore a sustainable, positive peace to those who have experienced the horrors of war.
More specifically, this study focuses on the military’s role in peacebuilding. In the last twenty years, post-war peacebuilding has emerged as a powerful method that helps nations recover from war. Soldiers, whether they are part of an international intervention attempting to end the war or a member of a United Nations peacekeeping mission, have an important role to play. Today, soldiers do more than win their nation’s wars; they also help other nations and their citizens recover from war. In the last few decades, civilians from organizations like the United Nations, other intergovernmental organizations, other governments and nongovernmental organizations have responded to help nations recover from war or a violent conflict. There is no argument that civilians are better at peacebuilding than the military, yet the military is moving into this realm more and more.
So what are the roles of the military and civilians? This research project answers these questions. The critical factor in determining what the military does and what civilians do is based on security. If security is good, civilians can perform all the aspects of peacebuilding. Conversely, if security is lacking, then the military must step in and take on the various parts of peacebuilding. Security, however, is not like a light switch, on or off, good or bad. It is more like a rheostat with varying degrees of security. This research defines five levels of security and then seeks to find the fine lines where civilians can replace the military in peacebuilding functions.
Current peacebuilding ideas have evolved from practice, but behind that practice are some relevant conflict and conflict resolution theories. These theories are explored and ideas for future peacebuilders are identified. Analysis of real world peacebuilding has led to the creation of various functions that help peacebuilders restore a society after a war. These functional areas are: security, humanitarian assistance, governance, rule of law, infrastructure restoration, economic development and reconciliation. Who performs each of these functional areas is directly related to the security conditions.
This research uses both quantitative and qualitative methods to explore how security impacts the role of the military in peacebuilding. Qualitatively, two case studies are explored, post-World War II Germany and Kosovo. Quantitatively, this research explored the issue through a questionnaire that was taken by 579 soldiers, civilians and experts in peacebuilding. In the end, the hypothesis was proven that the military’s role in peacebuilding is inversely linked to the level of security. If security is sufficient, civilians do the work; and if security is deficient, then the military’s role is larger.
9. Aiding the Arab Transitions: US Economic Engagement with Egypt, Wednesday October 3, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, Stimson Center
Venue: Stimson Center, 1111 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Twelfth Floor
Speakers: Caroline Atkinson, Amb. William Taylor, James Harmon, Mona Yacoubian
With the Middle East still reeling from a spate of anti-American violence, US relations with Egypt, perhaps the most important Arab country in transition, hang in the balance. Just prior to the outbreak of unrest in Cairo, the largest American trade delegation ever to the Middle East completed its historic visit to Egypt. The trade group’s trip came on the heels of a senior US delegation to Cairo to negotiate a $1 billion debt relief deal. In addition, the US government has assembled a package of financing and loan guarantees for American investors and recently established a $60 million US-Egypt Enterprise Fund. With persistent unemployment, low economic growth and anemic foreign investment, the Egyptian economy is struggling as Egypt attempts to meet the challenges of its historic transition. Meanwhile, the recent unrest has spurred calls inside the United States to withdraw its economic support from countries such as Egypt.
A distinguished panel will discuss the role of US economic engagement with Egypt, how this engagement fits into a broader US strategy on the Arab transitions, and the role US economic engagement can play in ensuring a more positive future for Egypt.
Register for this event here.
10. Afghanistan and the Politics of Regional Economic Integration in Central and South Asia, Wednesday October 3, 5:30 PM – 7:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, The Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Building Auditorium
Speakers: Jawed Ludin
Jawed Ludin, deputy foreign minister of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, will discuss this topic. A reception will precede the event at 5:00 PM.
RSVP for this event to saiscaciforums@jhu.edu.
11. Syria After Assad: Managing the Challenges of Transition, Thursday October 4, 9:30 AM – 11:30 AM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speakers: Steven Heydemann, Jim Marshall, Amr al-Azm, Afra Jalabi, Murhaf Jouejati, Rafif Jouejati, Rami Nakhla
The Syrian revolution has taken a terrible toll. Tens of thousands of Syrians have been killed and hundreds of thousands wounded. Millions have been forced from their homes. Urban centers have been destroyed, villages bombed, and communities subjected to horrific brutality at the hands of regime forces and Assad’s loyalist militias. The fabric of Syrian society is fraying under the pressure of escalating sectarian tensions. The militarization of the revolution and the proliferation of armed opposition units pose long term challenges for rule of law and security. Damage to infrastructure and to the Syrian economy will require tens of billions of dollars to repair.
How much longer the Assad regime will survive is uncertain. When it falls, a new government will face daunting challenges. How will the Syrian opposition respond? Will a new government be able to address the urgent needs of Syrians for humanitarian relief, economic and social reconstruction, and provide basic rule of law and security? Even today, in liberated areas of Syria where a post-Assad transition is already underway, the opposition must demonstrate its capacity to address these challenges.
Over the past year, a group of opposition activists collaborated to develop recommendations and strategies for managing the challenges of a post-Assad transition. Join us for the first presentation in the United States of the document they produced: “The Day After: Supporting a Democratic Transition in Syria.”
Register for this event here.
12. U.S.-Egyptian Relations: Where is the Bilateral Relationship Headed?, Thursday October 4, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM, Center for National Policy
Venue: Center for National Policy, One Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001, Suite 333
Speakers: Perry Cammack, Stephen McInerney, Shibley Telhami, Gregory Aftandilian
The slow and initial tepid response of the new Egyptian leadership to the attack on the U.S. embassy in Cairo has led many observers to question the efficacy of the U.S.-Egyptian bilateral relationship and caused some members of Congress to advocate for a cut in U.S. assistance. On the other hand, both Egyptian and U.S. officials have indicated that they want the bilateral relationship to be maintained, as each side has equities it wants to protect. Please join CNP Senior Fellow for the Middle East, Gregory Aftandilian, and a panel of experts to analyze this situation and give their assessments on where the bilateral relationship is headed. A light lunch will be served.
Register for this event here.
13. Systematic Approaches to Conflict Mapping, Friday October 5, 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, Truland Building, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22201, Rome 555
Speakers: Sara Cobb, Alison Castel
Conflict-affected societies are complex adaptive environments that often present peacebuilders and policy makers with difficult or “wicked problems.” One movement in the field is to take more holistic or integrated approaches to working with societal conflict.
Systems mapping of conflicts is one tool that is being used to enable peacebuilders to grapple effectively with the complexity these environments present. Dr. Robert Ricigliano will introduce participants to the technique of systems mapping of conflicts as a tool for assessment and planning for peacebuilding operations.
14. Paul Collier – “Making Natural Resources Work for Development,” Friday October 5, 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, The Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Kenney Auditorium
Speakers: Paul Collier
Professor Collier has been the Director of the Research Development Department of the World Bank for 5 years from 1998 to 2003. His research covers fragile states, democratization, and the management of natural-resources in low-income societies. Professor Collier is the author of The Bottom Billion, which in 2008 won the Lionel Gelber, Arthur Ross and Corine Prizes and in May 2009 was the joint winner of the Estoril Global Issues Distinguished Book Prize. His second book, Wars, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places was published in March 2009; and his latest book, The Plundered Planet: How to Reconcile Prosperity with Nature, in May 2010. He is currently advisor to the Strategy and Policy Department of the International Monetary Fund, and advisor to the Africa Region of the World Bank. In 2008, he was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) ‘for services to scholarship and development’. In 2011 he was elected to the Council of the Royal Economic Society.
Register for this event here.
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More talk, less eloquence, a bit of chicanery
The UN General Assembly, the ultimate talk shop, is providing a lot of opportunity this week to take the world’s pulse. Yesterday it was Egyptian President Morsy and Iranian President Ahmadinejad. Today it was Palestinian President Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Someone at the UN has good scheduling sense.
Ahmedinejad ended his peroration with this Messianic vision for the return of the Mahdi and Jesus Christ:
-The arrival of the Ultimate Savior will mark a new beginning, a rebirth and a resurrection. It will be the beginning of peace, lasting security and genuine life.
-His arrival will be the end of oppression, immorality, poverty, discrimination and the beginning of justice, love and empathy.
-He will come and he will cut through ignorance, superstition, prejudice by opening the gates of science and knowledge. He will establish a world brimful of prudence and he will prepare the ground for the collective, active and constructive participation of all in the global management.
-He will come to grant kindness, hope, freedom and dignity to all humanity as a girl.
-He will come so mankind will taste the pleasure of being human and being in the company of other humans.
-He will come so that hands will be joined, hearts will be filled with love and thoughts will be purified to be at service of security, welfare and happiness for all.
-He will come to return all children of Adam irrespective of their skin colors to their innate origin after a long history of separation and division linking them to eternal happiness.
Our brothers and sisters in Palestine must also taste the fruits of freedom and dignity. It is shameful that the free world accepts, regardless of the justifications provided, that a member of the international community continues to deny the rights of a nation that has been longing for decades for independence. It is also disgraceful that settlement activities continue on the territories of these people, along with the delay in implementing the decisions of international legitimacy.
I say it loudly to those wondering about our position vis-a-vis the international agreements and conventions that we have previously adhered to: we are committed to what we have signed on. We also support the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people and are determined to pursue all efforts side by side with them until they regain their rights.
The obscenities recently released as part of an organized campaign against Islamic sanctities is unacceptable and requires a firm stand. We have a responsibility in this international gathering to study how we can protect the world from instability and hatred. Egypt respects freedom of expression.
One that is not used to incite hatred against anyone. One that is not directed towards one specific religion or culture.
A freedom of expression that tackles extremism and violence. Not the freedom of expression that deepens ignorance and disregards others. But we also stand firmly against the use of violence in expressing objection to these obscenities.
Settlement activities embody the core of the policy of colonial military occupation of the land of the Palestinian people and all of the brutality of aggression and racial discrimination against our people that this policy entails. This policy, which constitutes a breach of international humanitarian law and United Nations resolutions, is the primary cause for the failure of the peace process, the collapse of dozens of opportunities, and the burial of the great hopes that arose from the signing of the Declaration of Principles in 1993 between the Palestine Liberation Organization and Israel to achieve a just peace that would begin a new era for our region.
He backed this up with one of the more eloquent statements of the day:
The time has come for our men, women and children to live normal lives, for them to be able to sleep without waiting for the worst that the next day will bring; for mothers to be assured that their children will return home without fear of suffering killing, arrest or humiliation; for students to be able to go to their schools and universities without checkpoints obstructing them. The time has come for sick people to be able to reach hospitals normally, and for our farmers to be able to take care of their good land without fear of the occupation seizing the land and its water, which the wall prevents access to, or fear of the settlers, for whom settlements are being built on our land and who are uprooting and burning the olive trees that have existed for hundreds of years. The time has come for the thousands of prisoners to be released from the prisons to return to their families and their children to become a part of building their homeland, for the freedom of which they have sacrificed.
Netanyahu, usually more eloquent than Abbas, was less on this occasion:
To understand what the world would be like with a nuclear-armed Iran, just imagine the world with a nuclear-armed Al-Qaeda.
It makes no difference whether these lethal weapons are in the hands of the world’s most dangerous terrorist regime or the world’s most dangerous terrorist organization. They’re both fired by the same hatred; they’re both driven by the same lust for violence.
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An eloquent day
The day has overflowed with high-minded eloquence: Obama at the General Assembly and the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) and Romney at the CGI All solid, well-thought-through presentations. Obama focused on universal values and aspirations at the UNGA, then on human trafficking at the CGI. Romney focused on improving the way in which we provide assistance internationally.
I can’t really fault much of what either said. I agree with Obama that the violence we’ve seen in the past two weeks is inexcusable, that the video precipitating the demonstrations that killed American diplomats as well as dozens of Muslims is reprehensible, that our values nevertheless prevent it from being suppressed and also require an end to human trafficking. I also agree with his support for the Arab awakening and in particular for an end to Bashar al Assad’s reign of terror in Syria. I agree with Romney that we need to reshape foreign assistance so that it creates conditions for private initiative and growth, which too often it does not.
The real significance is, as usual, in what they did not say. Obama offered no new ideas or action on Syria. He did not mention North Korea and touched only once on Pakistan. I imagine Pyongyang got off easy because there are growing signs of economic reform there, and less bellicosity. It is hard to say anything nice about the People’s Republic, so better not to say anything. That’s more or less the case with reprobate Pakistan as well: the billions poured into its coffers seem to have bought neither economic development nor friendship. I’d like to see Romney’s approach to foreign aid applied in Pakistan. It is unlikely to be less fruitful than what we’ve done in the past, under both Democratic and Republican administrations.
There was no easing of the President’s rhetoric or substantive position on the Iranian nuclear program. He rules out containment and makes it clear the United States will do what is necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Romney may doubt his credibility, but I don’t. I think the United States is sliding inexorably towards being locked into military action against Iran if diplomacy fails, which it well might. Both political parties have staked out strong positions that will push any president in the direction of war if Iran moves definitively to build a nuclear weapon. That is a very good reason to make the diplomatic push as strong as possible, since war with Iran is not going to be a simple matter.
As for Romney, he may have a grand new vision of American foreign assistance, but little or no financing for it if Paul Ryan’s budget plans come to fruition. Unlike his grand critique of Obama, Romney’s aid ideas are well-crafted. Too bad none of it would be likely to happen if he were to become president. If Obama is smart–and there is every indication he is that–he’ll poach a bit from the Romney ideas in his second term. It won’t be plagiarism–these are ideas floating around already and in part adopted over the past four years. But Obama could and should be a lot bolder in demanding from aid recipients the kinds of serious reform that Romney alludes to.
So there is little new ground broken in today’s eloquence, but a good deal to suggest that a bipartisan foreign policy is not so far out of reach, even in our highly polarized times. That would be refreshing.
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