Tag: Iran
No earth shaker
Israeli Vice Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz spoke Tuesday at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy during his first appearance in Washington since taking over leadership of the Kadima Party and joining Prime Minister Netanyahu’s governing coalition. His remarks encompassed the most pressing issues in Israeli foreign policy and touched also on domestic policy priorities.
Mofaz began by saying that Israel has a historic opportunity in light of the formation of its largest ever coalition. The 16-month window until the next required elections will allow Israel to make historic changes with its neighbors, even as the region undergoes “tectonic” change.
The Palestinian issue was first on the list and Mofaz’s number 1 priority. Unlike Iran, the Palestinian issue directly affects Israel but not the West. The onus is on Israel, then, to address it. Now is the time to “break the ice” with the Palestinians and immediately resume direct negotiations. According to Mofaz, the two sides are close enough on the issues of borders and security arrangements that negotiations can lead to an interim agreement. Such an agreement would change the atmosphere, build trust, and lead eventually to negotiations toward a permanent agreement for a two-state solution covering the most contentious issues like refugees and the status of the holy places.
Mofaz’s subsequent clarifications undermined his opening burst of optimism. He insisted that there be no preconditions for negotiations, referring to Palestinian demands that Israel cease illegal settlement building, but then sketched out Israel’s red lines. A Palestinian state could have security forces but not an army that could threaten Israeli security. No Palestinian refugees will be allowed to return to Israel, only to Palestine. Israel will not deal with Hamas, because it is a terrorist organization. Nor will Israel deal with Palestinian Authority President Abbas until Hamas leaves the Palestinian government. Israel’s eastern border will be at the far edge of its large settlements, and settlement building should continue in all such territory, including East Jerusalem. The message seemed to be that the Palestinians need to drop all preconditions to enter into negotiations leading to a solution dictated by the Israelis. Mofaz expressed the hope of talking with the Palestinians as soon as tomorrow, but he offered little incentive for them to come to the table.
Mofaz echoed Prime Minister Netanyahu’s position that a nuclear Iran constitutes an existential threat for Israel, but his tone was more cautious and less urgent. Time is left for diplomacy, including the oil embargo and tougher sanctions expected next month. The goal is for Iran to end all enrichment activity, remove all enriched material, and dismantle all underground facilities. While every option must be prepared, military action should be the last resort. We will have to ask ourselves how much it can accomplish in setting back the Iranian program, and what the impact will be on the region. In any event he would prefer that the West handle Tehran, as a nuclear Iran would threaten the West and moderate Arab states along with Israel.
The bloody uprising in Syria will end with the fall of Bashar al-Asad’s regime. Mofaz expected that the West would provide humanitarian aid to Syrians and warn Asad of the consequences of continued slaughter. The decision of how to handle the regime belongs to the Syrians, however. Mofaz hesitated to make predictions about the Egyptian elections but stressed that Israel would continue its relationship with Egypt no matter the results. The new regime will undoubtedly be less friendly, but Israel’s priority will be maintenance of the peace treaty and prevention of Sinai terrorism.
Mofaz proposed a number of reforms to the Israeli political system: raising the threshold for parliamentary representation to 4% of the vote, allowing the party with the most seats to form the government (which would have made Tzipi Livni, Kadima leader before Mofaz, prime minister), and requiring the full four-year term between elections. Other domestic priorities include service for all citizens (ultra-Orthodox and Arabs included) and a 2013 budget based on a social agenda responsive to last year’s protests
Mofaz’s approach to Iran and the Palestinians suggests he is more flexible than Netanyahu, but his weight in the governing coalition might not allow him to deliver much. There may be “tectonic change” in the region, but Mofaz is a junior coalition partner and has less than a year and a half to make something substantial happen with the Palestinians. He doesn’t have the look or sound of an earth shaker.
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Playing chess with Mike Tyson
I might wish that were the name of William Dobson‘s book about how dictators are adjusting to contemporary pro-democracy rebellions, as the original text of this post said, but really it’s Dictatorship 2.0. I haven’t read it but intend to do so, as there was a lively discussion of it yesterday at the Carnegie Endowment with Karim Sadjadpour chairing, Dobson presenting, Otpor‘s Srdja Popovic and Marc Lynch commenting.
It is hard to be an old style dictator today, Dobson avers. Really only North Korea is left, as Burma has begun to adjust. The plug can’t be pulled on communications, which means dictators need to get savvy and use more subtle forms of repression: targeted tax inspections, contested but unfree and unfair elections (preferably with the opposition fragmented), control over television and the courts, big handouts to the populace. Dictatorships today do not aim for ideological monopolies but rather to prevent and disrupt mobilization.
Oppositions have to adjust as well. Srdja outlined the basics: they need unity, planning and nonviolent discipline. They must be indigenous. Internationals can help, mainly through education and help with communications. Protesters need to avoid confronting dictatorial regimes where they are strong and attack them where they are weak. You don’t challenge Mike Tyson to box; better to play chess with him. This means avoiding military action in Syria, for example, and focusing on the regime’s economic weakness. The contest is between opposition enthusiasm and the fear the regime seeks to impose. Humor and “dispersive” tactics that do not require mass assembly in the streets (work and traffic slowdowns, boycotts, graffiti, cartoons) are increasingly important in reducing fear.
Marc emphasized the sequence of events in the Arab awakening: Ben Ali’s flight from Tunisia made people elsewhere realize what was possible, Mubarak’s overthrow in Egypt made it seem inevitable, Libya and Yemen were far more difficult, a reversal that has continued in Syria, where the regime has substantial support from Alawites and Christians afraid of what will happen to them if the revolution succeeds. The tipping point comes when perception of a regime changes from its being merely bad to being immoral.
So who is next? Saudi Arabia and Jordan are in peril, Marc suggested. Bahrain is living on borrowed time. Srdja suggested Iran, which is moving backwards towards an old style dictatorship after the defeat of its Green Movement, can only be challenged successfully if the protesters learn from their mistakes. They need better leadership and a focus on the state’s inability to deliver services. China, Dobson said, has been good at pre-empting large protests. Burma may not be adjusting quickly enough to avoid an upheaval.
I didn’t hear mention of Russia, Cuba, Algeria, and lots of other places that might be candidates, but no one was trying to be comprehensive. Wherever they may be, dictatorships will adjust to what they see happening elsewhere and try to protect their monopoly on power from those who challenge it. Their opponents will also need to adjust. It is thus in both war and peace.
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Bearly civil
Russia is not America’s “number one geopolitical foe,” as Governor Romney suggested in March, but newly reelected President Putin is definitely a pain.
His meeting with President Obama yesterday produced little or nothing on the two main issues for the United States: Syria and the Iranian nuclear program. Meanwhile, the Brits stopped a shipment of refurbished Russian attack helicopters headed for Syria, while the Iranians thumbed their noses at the U.S.-backed nuclear offer. It’s a good thing the nuclear talks, which are continuing today, are being held in Moscow, since that gives the Russians an incentive to float new ideas and prevent a collapse. The Russians will do what they can to pass the hot potato on to the next meeting, reportedly to be held in Beijing.
The problem isn’t so much that Russia is a geopolitical foe with the capacity to do America serious harm, which is what it was during the Cold War. The problem is that Moscow controls some things Washington needs, like the northern supply route to Afghanistan and the Security Council consensus on blocking Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. can manage without these things, but it can manage much better with them.
Presidents Obama and Putin looked none too pleased with each other yesterday at their meeting in Mexico, during a G-20 summit. Putin, who is trying to re-establish Russia’s great power status, figures sticking it to Obama will help him demonstrate that Russia is indispensible. Obama has both hands tied behind his back, because–contrary to what one of my Twitter followers suggested yesterday–he needs Putin’s help on Afghanistan and Iran, even if Russia is today a middling power.
This makes for an uncivil relationship, one that could end with tragedy in Syria and catastrophe in Iran. The Russian bear hasn’t got the capacity to project power that the Soviet one had, but it is leveraging its weakened position effectively. I share President Obama’s preference for multilateralism, which has virtues in particular for dealing with Iran and Syria. But it is important to keep open other options, if only to counter a middling power seeking to leverage its assets.
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This week’s peace picks
We are down to four-day weeks, but lots of interesting events anyway:
1. Egypt’s Elections: The End of the Revolution, or a New Beginning? Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, 9:30 June 18
A Conversation with Khairi Abaza, Steven Cook, John Hannah and Oren Kessler
Monday, June 18
9:30 am-11:00 am
Breakfast and registration will begin at 9:15 am
RSVP Below.
Egypt has reached an historical crossroads. The two presidential candidates, Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik, present very different visions for Egypt. Shafik represents the old guard of the Mubarak era. Morsi represents the ascendant Muslim Brotherhood. In the wake of this momentous election, what direction will Egypt take? Why, after months of analysis, did scholars and Washington officials alike, incorrectly estimate the will of the Egyptian people? Will the elections lead to additional chaos and disorder, or will the results of this election bring closure and help Egypt move toward greater stability?
To assess these questions and others, FDD is pleased to host a breakfast conversation with:
Khairi Abaza, a scholar at FDD, noted for his focus on democratic reform in the Arab world, the spread of terrorism, and the influence of the media on politics. His columns appeared in various publications such as International Herald Tribune, The New Republic, Newsweek, Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, and The Weekly Standard. He is also a commentator on several American and international television stations such as Fox, BBC, France 24, Al-Jazeera and CBC. Before coming to Washington, Mr. Abaza worked for ten years in Egyptian politics. He served as a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and secretary of the Cultural Committee of the Egyptian Wafd Party. Mr. Abaza recently returned from Egypt where he had an up close look at the unfolding developments. Read his full bio here.
Steven Cook, Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He is an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy. Dr. Cook is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square and Ruling But Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey. He has published widely in a variety of foreign policy journals, opinion magazines, and newspapers including Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, the Journal of Democracy, The Weekly Standard, Slate, The New Republic Online, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, the International Herald Tribune, and Survival. Dr. Cook is also a frequent commentator on radio and television. He currently writes the blog, “From the Potomac to the Euphrates.” Prior to joining CFR, Dr. Cook was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution (2001–2002) and a Soref research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (1995–96).
John Hannah, who brings almost two decades of experience at the highest levels of U.S. foreign policy to his work as Senior Fellow at FDD. From 2001-2009, Mr. Hannah served as one of Vice President Dick Cheney’s most trusted aides on national security issues. He served as the Vice President’s deputy national security advisor for the Middle East, where he was intimately involved in U.S. policy toward Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, the peace process, and the global war on terrorism and later as the Vice President’s national security advisor, where he served as the Vice President’s top advisor on the full panoply of international issues from the Middle East to North Korea to Russia. Previously, Mr. Hannah worked as a senior advisor on the staff of Secretary of State Warren Christopher during the administration of President William J. Clinton, and as a senior member of Secretary of State James A. Baker’s Policy Planning Staff during the presidency of George H.W. Bush. Mr. Hannah writes and speaks widely on issues related to American foreign policy. His articles have appeared in such publications as the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Wall Street Journal. He blogs regularly at ForeignPolicy.com and National Review Online. Read his full bio here.
Oren Kessler, a Tel Aviv-based journalist covering Israel and the Middle East. Oren is the former Middle East affairs correspondent for The Jerusalem Post, and previously worked as an editor and translator at Haaretz. His articles have appeared in Foreign Policy, Middle East Quarterly, the Journal of International Security Affairs, Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs and other publications, and he is a frequent guest on international news programs discussing Israel and the Arab world. Oren holds an Hon. BA in History from the University of Toronto and an MA in Diplomacy and Conflict Studies from the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. Fluent in Hebrew and Spanish, he has studied literary and colloquial Arabic in the United States, the Diwaan center in Tel Aviv and Al-Quds University in East Jerusalem.
Open press coverage. Advance RSVP required. Camera setup at 8:30 am
Washington, DC 20036
Questions? Contact erin@defenddemocracy.org or 202.250.6144
2. Getting serious on Syria: Can we close the Assad era without opening a can of worms? AEI, 1-3 pm June 18
| Date / Time |
Monday, June 18 / 1:00pm Register with host
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|---|---|
| Location |
American Enterprise Institute 1150 17th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
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| Speakers | John Mccain, Ammar Abdulhamid, Brian Fishman, David Schenker, Lee Smith, Michael Rubin |
| Description | As the Syrian uprising approaches its sixteenth month, any remaining hope that Assad will end the bloodshed has evaporated. Neither international condemnation nor the dispatching of United Nations monitors has reduced violence in the country. Moreover, Russia and Iran continue to arm the regime. While U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has declared that the ‘Assad regime’s brutality against its own people must and will end,’ neither she nor the White House has outlined a strategy to meet that goal. While the Obama administration invoked a ‘Responsibility to Protect’ doctrine to justify military action in Libya, it has pointedly refused to do so in Syria. Do any options short of military force remain to end bloodshed in Syria? Is the Syrian opposition ready to govern, or would Assad’s fall unleash a sectarian and ethnic civil war? What would regime change in Syria mean for Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the U.S.? Join a panel of seasoned Syria experts as they debate these issues and more.Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will open the discussion with a keynote address.If you cannot attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.12:45 PMRegistration1:00 PMKeynote Address
John McCain, U.S. Senate (R-Ariz.) 1:30 PM Panelists: Ammar Abdulhamid, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Brian Fishman, New America Foundation David Schenker, Washington Institute for Near East Policy Lee Smith, The Weekly Standard Moderator: Michael Rubin, AEI 3:00 PM Adjournment |
3. Threats to Nigeria’s Security:Boko Haram and Beyond, Jamestown Foundation at Carnegie Endowment, 9-12 June 19
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Root Conference Room
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
Registration
8:45 A.M. – 9:00 A.M.
***
Introduction
Glen E. Howard
President, The Jamestown Foundation
***
Panel One:
Domestic Factors of Instability in Nigeria
9:00 A.M. – 10:30 A.M.
Jacob Zenn
“Instability in Northern Nigeria: The View From The Ground”
Analyst for West African Affairs
The Jamestown Foundation
Dibussi Tande
“Beyond Boko Haram: The Rise of Militant Islam in Nigeria & Cameroon”
Journalist & Blogger on Nigerian Security Issues
Dr. Andrew McGregor
“Central African Militant Movements: The Northern Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon Nexus”
Editor in Chief, Global Terrorism Analysis
The Jamestown Foundation
Mark McNamee
“The Niger Delta & The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)”
Analyst, The Jamestown Foundation
Q & A
***
Coffee Break
10:30 A.M. – 10:45 A.M.
***
Panel Two:
Nigerian Security Issues and US-Nigeria Relations
10:45 A.M. – 12:00 A.M.
Lauren Ploch Blanchard
“US – Nigeria Relations and the United States Response to Boko Haram”
Specialist in African Affairs, Congressional Research Service
Carl LeVan
“The Political Basis for Demilitarization and Dialogue in Nigeria”
Assistant Professor of African Politics, American University
Colonel Gene McConville
“Will Nigeria Develop A Counter-Terrorism Policy?”
Senior Military Advisor, Africa Center For Strategic Studies
Ambassador Eunice Reddick
“U.S.-Nigeria Engagement on Regional Security”
Director of the Office of West African Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Q & A
***
Concluding Remarks:
12:15 P.M.
***
Participant Biographies
Lauren Ploch Blanchard
Mrs. Blanchard provides nonpartisan analysis on African political, military and diplomatic affairs, and on U.S. policy in the region, to Members of the United States Congress, congressional committees, and congressional staff. She has written extensively on security issues on the continent, and has testified before Congress on U.S. military engagement and counterterrorism efforts in Africa. Prior to joining CRS, she managed governance programs in East and Southern Africa. Previously, Mrs. Blanchard served as Legislative Assistant in the United States Senate. She holds a master’s degree in National Security Studies from Georgetown University and a bachelor’s degree in Political Science and Classical Studies, with a minor in African Studies, from the University of Florida. Her publications include: Africa Command: U.S. Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa; Piracy off the Horn of Africa; Countering Terrorism in East Africa: The U.S. Response; Al Qaeda and Affiliates: Historical Perspective, Global Presence, and Implications for U.S. Policy; and Nigeria: Issues for Congress; among others.
Carl LeVan
Carl LeVan is an Assistant Professor in the School of International Service at American University in Washington, D.C., where he is Africa Coordinator for Comparative and Regional studies. His articles on power-sharing in East Africa, democratization and civil society in Nigeria, the U.S. military’s Africa Command, and comparative authoritarianism have appeared in journals such as Governance, Africa Today, Democratization, Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics, and Journal of African Elections. Prior to receiving his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California—San Diego, he worked as a legislative director on Capitol Hill, and then as the National Democratic Institute’s first Country Director in Nigeria. His research focuses on comparative political institutions, democratization, and political development. He recently finished a book manuscript on Nigerian government performance, and his new project (with the distinguished Latin Americanist, Todd Eisenstadt) explores the consequences of constitutional reform. He publishes the blog Development4Security at carllevan.com.
Colonel Gene McConville
U.S. Army Colonel Gene McConville joined the Africa Center in October 2010 for a three-year assignment as Senior Military Advisor, Academic Affairs. Colonel McConville oversees curriculum and program development in the area of International Crisis Response and Management. Prior to joining the Africa Center, Colonel McConville was a Staff Officer, International Security Assistance Force/U.S. Forces Afghanistan. Colonel McConville has significant experience in Africa having served as the Army Attaché to the Federal Republic of Nigeria from 1991-1994.
Andrew McGregor
Andrew McGregor is Director of Toronto-based Aberfoyle International Security and Managing Editor of the Jamestown Foundation’s Global Terrorism Analysis publications. He received a Ph.D. from the University of Toronto’s Department of Near and Middle Eastern Civilizations in 2000 and is a former Research Associate of the Canadian Institute of International Affairs. He has worked as a consultant to New Scotland Yard’s SO15 Counter Terrorism Command and provided expert witness for the UK’s Crown Prosecution Service. His latest book is A Military History of Modern Egypt, published by Praeger Security International in 2006. Dr. McGregor has written over 300 articles on international security issues for organizations including Jane’s Intelligence, the Royal Institute of International Affairs and the Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies. He is the author of an archaeological history of Darfur published by Cambridge University in 2001 and provides frequent commentary on military and security issues for international newspapers, radio and television, including the New York Times, Financial Times, and the BBC.
Mark McNamee
Mark McNamee is an Intelligence Analyst for Sub-Saharan Africa at an international risk consulting firm in the Washington, D.C. region as well as a contract employee for the U.S. Army Combating Terrorism Center. He has an M.A. in International Relations from Johns Hopkins University (SAIS), with concentrations in Russian & Eurasian Studies and International Economics, and studied Russian in St. Petersburg, Russia for two years.
Eunice S. Reddick
Ms. Reddick is a career diplomat in the Senior Foreign Service, currently assigned to the State Department’s Africa bureau as Director of the Office of West African Affairs. She was appointed U.S. Ambassador to Gabon and Sao Tome and Principe from 2007-10. Prior to her current assignment, Eunice was Diplomat in Residence at Howard University. She has worked at U.S. embassies in Zimbabwe, Cote d’Ivoire, and China. During her more than 30 years of diplomatic service, she has also been assigned to the Bureaus of Population, Refugees and Migration Affairs; International Organization Affairs; East Asian and Pacific Affairs; and the Secretary’s Operations Center as Senior Watch Officer. She was awarded a Dean and Virginia Rusk Fellowship and spent a year at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University. Born and raised in New York City, Eunice received a BA in history and literature from New York University, and a Master’s degree in international affairs from Columbia University.
Dibussi Tande
Dibussi Tande is the leading Cameroonian blogger who publishes the award-winning blog, Scribbles from the Den. A former Associate Editor of Cameroon Life Magazine and Cameroon Today, Tande writes for a variety of print and online journals, and has contributed to a variety of publication such as the BBC’s Focus on Africa magazine, The Rhodes Journalism Review and Pambazuka, the authoritative pan-African electronic weekly newsletter. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Public Law from the University of Yaounde, and Masters Degrees in Political Science and Instructional Technology from Northeastern Illinois University and Northern Illinois University respectively. He recently published a book on politics and collective memory in Cameroon.
Dibussi Tande’s interests include the use of social media for political activism and social advocacy, the role of citizen journalism in Africa, and the rise of Radical Islam in West Africa with a focus on Cameroon and Nigeria.
Jacob Zenn
Jacob Zenn is an Analyst for West African and Central Asian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation and author of the upcoming book “Boko Haram in West Africa: Al Qaeda’s Next Frontier?,” which is based on his field research in Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger in May and June 2012. Mr. Zenn earned a J.D. from Georgetown Law as a Global Law Scholar and a Certificate in International Affairs from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Nanjing Center for Chinese-American Studies in Nanjing, China. At Georgetown Law he carried out a fellowship in Yemen sponsored by the American Society of International Law (ASIL) and Chadbourne & Parke LLP’s Middle-East North Africa Team during which time he also observed elections in Somaliland. Formerly a political risk consultant, he writes regularly for the Jamestown Foundation’s Militant Leadership Monitor and Terrorism Monitor publications focusing on Nigeria and Central Asia and contributes articles for Asia Times, SAIS Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst and the CTC Sentinel. Jacob has been a charter member of the National Language Service Corps since 2011 for Bahasa Indonesia, Mandarin Chinese and Arabic (MSA) and was a State Department Critical Language Scholar in Malang, Indonesia in 2011.
4. Arms racing in Asia? Who’s winning, who’s losing
1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036
(Two blocks from Farragut North Metro)
This year, Asian military spending is expected to exceed Europe’s military spending for the first time in history. Moreover, Asian nations are funding the development of significant new capabilities. China’s first aircraft carrier embarked on its maiden voyage last year; Japan announced its intention to acquire F-35s; and India tested a long-range missile capable of striking Beijing, China.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is implementing a new operational concept called AirSea Battle. What factors are propelling this widespread military modernization? What are the implications for the military balance in Asia? Is Asia in an arms race? At this AEI event, two expert panels will examine major trends in Asian military modernization to assess their impact on power dynamics in the region.
If you cannot attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.
9:15 AM
Registration
9:30 AM
Panel I: The Asia-Pacific Poles
Panelists:
Dan Blumenthal, AEI
Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings Institution
Chuck Jones, Lockheed Martin Corporation
Moderator:
Thomas Donnelly, AEI
10:30 AM
Question and Answer Session
10:45 AM
Panel II: U.S. Allies and Partners
Panelists:
Michael Auslin, AEI
Bruce Bechtol, Angelo State University
Michael Mazza, AEI
Mark Stokes, Project 2049 Institute
Moderator:
Gary J. Schmitt, AEI
11:45 AM
Question and Answer Session
12:00 PM
Adjournment
For more information, please contact Lara Crouch at lara.crouch@aei.org, 202.862.7160.
For media inquiries, please contact Véronique Rodman at vrodman@aei.org, 202.862.4871.
5. Israeli National Security Strategy in the Expanded Coalition, 3:30-5 pm June 19
Also available in العربية
A Conversation with Shaul Mofaz, vice prime minister of Israel
Watch live streaming video from washingtoninstitute at livestream.com
Shaul Mofaz’s victory in the Kadima primary election and subsequent decision to bring his party into the governing coalition sent shockwaves through Israel, changing the dynamics of regional politics. To discuss his strategy for security and peace, and ways in which the expanded coalition can promote these goals, The Washington Institute invited Lt. Gen. (res.) Shaul Mofaz to address a late-afternoon Policy Forum on June 19, 2012, from 3:30 to 5:00 p.m. EDT.
Shaul Mofaz is vice prime minister of Israel, minister without portfolio, and head of the Kadima Party. Previously the deputy prime minister, he has also served as minister of defense and, in his distinguished military career, as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces. He is a former military fellow at The Washington Institute.
Request an invitation to attend this event.
Watch live via webcast here Tuesday, June 19, 2012, from 3:30-5:00 p.m. EDT.
6. Afghanistan after NATO: An Afghan Perspective on Security and Development, 4:30-6 pm June 19
with
Albert Santoli (Moderator)
Founder and President of Asia America Initiative
General Hillaluddin Hilal
Member of the Afghanistan Parliament
General Ahmad Rahmani
CEO, IBEX Corporation, Afghanistan
Amb. Omar Samad
Former Afghan Ambassador to Canada
Qasim Tarin
Co-Founder and Chairman, Afghan Business Network
President and CEO, Electro Imaging Systems
Javid Ahmad (Invited)
Program Coordinator, German Marshall Fund’s Asia program
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
4:30 PM
The Institute of World Politics
1521 16th Street NW
Washington, DC 20036
Please RSVP to kbridges@iwp.edu.
NATO is now concluding a costly presence in Afghanistan, and the withdrawal of troops is gradually being conducted. The country, however, will remain a critical platform for international peace and stability for many decades to come. A resurgent Taliban would create a haven to inspire and train local and international terrorist groups. The production of opium would continuously fuel instability, crime, and corruption across Central Asia, the Balkans, Russia, and parts of Western Europe. Rivalries for influence and competition over Afghanistan’s natural resources could intensify competition between Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and India. Endemic humanitarian crises for the Afghan people could be unbearable.
We often hear the opinions of commentators from the West. But what is the perspective of Afghan citizens who have devoted their lives to the freedom and rebuilding of their homeland? What will Afghanistan, the region, and the world look like in 2014-2015? Inside of Afghanistan, what type of post-occupation regime will take shape? What will be the influence or interference of Afghanistan’s neighbors? Can the narcotics trade be curtailed? Can civil war supported by Afghanistan’s neighbors be avoided? What effective options do the West, and above all, the Afghan people, still have?
Important components to peace and development are not only credible politics and economic development, but also effective transportation and logistical systems. Without road or air access into Afghanistan through Pakistan, Iran, and Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (under Russian influence or control), can a stable economy be built and sustained? Can humanitarian stability involving food and basic human needs for survival be achieved? Can struggling communities or a cohesive government be defended from attacks by well-supplied radicals? We will seek perspective on these questions from a panel of knowledgeable Afghan leaders who are dedicated in the fields of politics, economics, humanitarian issues, logistics and security.
This event is co-sponsored by The Institute of World Politics and Asia America Initiative.
Speakers
General Hillaluddin Hilal
General Hilal is a Member of the Afghanistan Parliament representing Baghlan Proivince from 2005 to present. He served as a former Deputy Minister of Interior for Security from 2003-05 and a former senior advisor to the legendary Afghan Freedom Fighter Ahmad Shah Massoud during the resistance war against the Taliban/Pakistan from 1998-2001. He was a three-star General in the Afghan Air Force, and was senior advisor to the Defense Minister of Tajikistan and during the mediation between President Rahmanov and Abdullah Nuri, leader of the strongest opposition group. From 1996-98, he was Minister of Transportation, Avaiation and Tourism. From 1993-95, General Hilal was Commandant of Afghanistan’s Northern Border Force.
General Ahmad Rahmani
General Rahmani is CEO of IBEX Corp in Afghanistan which provides security, air and ground transportation for international organizations, including NATO and UN agencies, and secure warehousing, logistics support, transportation and humanitarian assistance to Afghan refugees. He was Transportation Minster of Afghanistan during 1992-1997 under the transitional post-Soviet government. He was a General in the Afghanistan Air Force until retiring from the military in 2000.
Amb. Omar Samad
Amb. Omar Samad served as Afghanistan’s Ambassador to France from June 2009 to July 2011, while also accredited to Monaco. He served as Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Canada (2004-2009) and non-resident Afghan Ambassador to the Republic of Chile. From 2001 to 2004, he was the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kabul in capacity of Director General. He is currently a Senior Expert on Afghanistan at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC.
Born in Kabul in 1961 and son of a diplomat, he attended primary and secondary schooling in Kabul, Paris and London. Compelled to leave Afghanistan in 1979 following the Communist coup d’état, he settled in the United States, where he helped promote the cause of freedom and democracy in Afghanistan. For several years, Mr. Samad worked in the field of information technology, while pursuing a second career in media. In 1996, after achieving an MA at the Fletcher School, he launched Azadi Afghan Radio and website as part of the Afghanistan Information Center based in Virginia. He returned to Afghanistan in December 2001 and joined the Foreign Ministry. For many years, he has been a contributor and commentator for the international media, including CNN, the BBC, Al Jazeera and others. Most of his writings are published on the Foreign Policy blog.
Qasim Tarin
Qasim Tarin is the co-founder and Chairman of the Afghan Business Network and the President and CEO of Electro Imaging Systems. He is also the interim President of the Afghan-American Chamber of Commerce, Northern California Chapter. He has worked with large corporations such as Toshiba America, IBM, Cannon USA, Xerox Corporation, Hewlett Packard, and Ricoh Corporation USA. He is a member of Rotary International and the CEO Alliance Group.
Javid Ahmad (Invited)
Javid Ahmad is a Program Coordinator with German Marshall Fund’s Asia program where he works on a range of initiatives, including the India Forum, workshops on Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Young Strategist Forum, Global Swing States, and the Brussels Forum. Prior to joining GMF, Ahmad worked in the Political and Legislative Section of the Embassy of Afghanistan and the Public Affairs Office of Voice of America. He previously worked for the Welfare Association for the Development of Afghanistan (WADAN) in Kabul and served as an International Elections Observer during Afghanistan’s Parliamentary Elections. Ahmad has been published in the Christian Science Monitor, The National Interest, Newsweek’s Daily Beast, The Diplomat and is also a regular contributor to Foreign Policy magazine’s AfPak Channel.
Albert Santoli, Panel Moderator
Al Santoli is Founder and President of Asia America Initiative, an international NGO dedicated to grassroots development, intercultural reconciliation, terror deterrence and peace building. From 1997-2001, he coordinated the only American program of non-governmental assistance to the anti-Taliban resistance in Afghanistan during the Taliban/al Qaeda reign of terror, while working as a foreign policy advisor in the US House of Representatives. His AAI Development for Peace project in Muslim Mindanao received a rare Philippines Presidential Citation for peace mediation and deterring terrorism in one of the most impoverished and conflict-plagued regions of Asia. He is a New York Times best selling author of military history and a long-time associate of the Institute of World Politics. In 1982, he was among the first international journalist to write for a major publication about the Soviet use of bio-chemical weapons in Afghanistan.
7. Dictatorship 2.0: Modern Authoritarian Regimes, Carnegie Endowment, 12:30-2 pm June 20
William Dobson, Srdja Popovic, Marc Lynch, Karim Sadjadpour
Register to attend
Amid the Arab Spring uprisings, the global war between freedom and repression is often perceived as a battle that pits tech-savvy, globalized democrats against out-of-touch, dim-witted dictatorships. In his acclaimed new book The Dictator’s Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy, William Dobson, Slate politics and foreign affairs editor, takes us behind the scenes in both camps, and explores how authoritarian regimes are increasingly employing twenty-first century techniques to protect the twentieth century status quo.
Srdja Popovic, founder and leader of the Serbian student movement that brought down the Milosovic regime, will discuss how “people power” can prevail, and George Washington University professor Marc Lynch will discuss these dynamics in the context of today’s Middle East. Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour will moderate.
8. When Iran Gets the Bomb: What Will It Do? What Will Others Do? What Will Be the Costs?, Hudson Institute, 9:30 am-12:30 pm June 21
As the world debates whether a steep price should be paid to stop prospects of an Iranian nuclear weapon, there remains little understanding of what consequences might flow from Iran’s possession of such weapons.
Hudson Institute will host a conference to analyze a world in which first Iran, and then some of Iran’s neighbors, become nuclear weapons states. The conference does not seek to prejudge whether Iran will be stopped from reaching its nuclear goals, but to explore in greater depth the kinds of problems that the free world may encounter over time if Iran is not stopped. This discussion may help illuminate the costs of failure and show how the United States can prepare for a world that includes a nuclear-armed Iran.
The conference will consist of two sessions held between 9:30 AM and 12:30 PM. They will be conducted in an interactive workshop fashion. The first session will discuss a world in which Iran has a small nuclear arsenal, and the second session will discuss a poly-nuclear Middle East.
Panelists:
Husain Haqqani, Boston University
Ali Alfoneh, American Enterprise Institute
David Wurmser, Delphi Global Analysis
Samantha Ravich, Former Deputy National Security Advisor, Office of the Vice President
Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
Lee Smith, The Weekly Standard
Christopher Ford, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
The sessions will be moderated by Hudson Institute Senior Vice President Lewis Libby and Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Hillel Fradkin.
Betsy and Walter Stern
Conference Center
Hudson Institute
1015 15th St, NW,
6th Floor
Washington, DC 20005
This event will be streamed online here: http://www.hudson.org/watchlive.
Questions can be submitted via Twitter: @HudsonInstitute.
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The road to Damascus still runs through Moscow
Michelle Dunne and Dimitri Simes got it wrong in yesterday’s discussion on the PBS Newshour of Russia’s role in Syria. They failed to understand the main reason the Obama Administration hesitates to buck Moscow and offered a precedent–the 1999 Kosovo intervention–that can’t be mechanically applied in today’s conditions.
If only Syria were at stake and the Russians were tacitly on board, it would be foolish, as Simes suggested, for the Americans to hesitate to act without UN Security Council (UNSC) approval. They acted without approval in Kosovo without any serious backlash from Russia, which in 1999 was in no position to offer much resistance.
But that is not the current situation. Iran is also on the chess board. If the United States attacks Syria without Moscow’s concurrence, it will lose Russian participation in the P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran. Your top national security priority for the moment is stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons, but you would put that goal at risk for the sake of Syria? Whether you believe stopping Iran can be done by diplomatic means or you think that military action will be required, you want to keep your powder dry and the Russians on side as much as possible.
Russia to boot is not the basket case it was in 1999, when it winked and nodded at NATO’s attack on Serbia, which after several months ended Belgrade’s repression and the expulsion of the Albanians from Kosovo. Simes conveniently forgot that Kosovo briefly threatened real problems between the United States and Russia, when Moscow seized the Pristina airport before NATO forces arrived there. But Russia was too weak and too broke to do anything more than putter around the runways. Moscow today is far better equipped with armed forces, hard cash and diplomatic support to respond than it was in 1999.
The key to solving the Syria problem is convincing Moscow that it risks losing everything when the Assad regime comes down. Diplomatic persuasion, not military action, is what is needed. At some point, Russia will realize that protecting its port access in the Mediterranean and its arms sales to Syria requires support to the successor regime. If Moscow fails to jump ship in time, the Russians will go down with it.
Moscow sounded a bit desperate yesterday underlining that its arms sales to Bashar al Assad violate no UN resolution or international law. True enough. What they violate is common sense and human decency. No one should be surprised that this is difficult for Vladimir Putin to understand. He is after all having his own problems with demonstrators. But even he by now understands that helicopter gunships are not the right way to deal with dissent.
When President Obama sees President Putin at the G-20 meeting in Mexico next week, Syria should be high on the agenda. The road to Damascus still runs through Moscow.
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This week’s peace picks
Not a slow week, but one with a bit longer term focus than some:
1. Persian subversion: Can America withstand an Iranian oil shock? AEI 10-11:30 June 12.
1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036
(Two blocks from Farragut North Metro)
In recent months, Iranian saber rattling has shaken energy markets. Although sanctions targeting Iran may raise the price at the pump, inaction is also costly: allowing Tehran to pass its nuclear threshold will endanger security in the Persian Gulf and may lead to even greater oil price hikes.
Against the backdrop of the Iranian nuclear crisis, American policymakers are increasingly considering ramping up domestic oil production and alternative energy. How much can shale oil, new pipelines and offshore oil production shield the U.S. economy from instability in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s leverage over world oil prices? How do the recent bankruptcies of U.S. solar energy firms affect American alternate energy strategy? Join a panel of foreign policy, national security, energy and transportation experts for an open discussion.
If you cannot attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page.
9:45 AM
Registration
10:00 AM
Panelists:
Elliott Abrams, Council on Foreign Relations
Gen. (ret.) James T. Conway, 34th Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps
Sam Gilliland, Sabre Holdings
Daniel Yergin, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates
Moderator:
Michael Rubin, AEI
11:30 AM
Adjournment
2. Japan-Korea-China Economic Relations, 9-10:30 June 12
Washington 20006
As Korea strives to be a global leader, the country has concluded several bilateral and multilateral Free Trade Agreements since 2003 and is currently negotiating additional agreements while laying the groundwork for a Korea-Japan-China FTA and considering the resumption of negotiations with Japan. Japan’s trade strategy also continues to evolve as it develops a new growth strategy after the natural disasters of 2011. Both Korea and Japan are carefully watching the developments around TPP. In the meantime, China has become the largest trading partner of Korea and Japan and the three countries recently signed a trilateral investment agreement as a potential first step toward a trilateral trade accord.
The seminar will assess the current status of the Korean and Japanese trade policies in light of the implementation of the KORUS FTA and the continued discussion of the TPP, Korea-China FTA and Korea-Japan-China FTA.
3. 2012 GPI Launch: How Can Global Peace Metrics Inform Foreign Policy? CSIS, 9-10:30 June 12
Please join us for the results of the sixth annual Global Peace Index and inaugural Positive Peace Index:Tuesday, June 12, 2012
9:00 AM – 10:30 AM
B1 Conference Center, CSIS
1800 K St. NW, Washington, DC 20006
A Panel Discussion With
Amb. William Garvelink, Senior Adviser, U.S. Leadership in Development, Center for Strategic and International Studies (Moderator)
Anne-Marie Slaughter, Bert G. Kerstetter ’66 University Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University (Opening Remarks)
Lawrence Wilkerson, Distinguished Adjunct Professor of Government and Public Policy, William and Mary College
Josh Rogin, Staff Writer, Foreign Policy
Emily Cadei, Foreign Policy Reporter, Congressional Quarterly
Michael Shank, U.S. Vice President, Institute for Economics and Peace (GPI Results Presentation)
In a world often described by crisis and conflict, which countries are the most peaceful? How do we measure peace and its economic value? How can peace metrics inform U.S. foreign policy?
The Global Peace Index (GPI) is the first-ever analysis to methodically rank countries on their peacefulness and identify potential determinants of peace. Comprised of a range of indicators measuring the absence of violence in society, the GPI takes into consideration both internal and external factors, and measures 99% of the world’s population.
For the first time, this year’s report includes a Positive Peace Index (PPI), highlighting the key institutional factors associated with creating peaceful and resilient societies. The PPI ranks countries by their institutional capacity to move away from violence and towards peace.
The GPI is produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), guided by an international panel of independent experts and supported by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which collates the data and calculates the rankings in conjunction with the IEP.
Please RSVP to achang@csis.org
4. Culturally-Based Approaches to Peacebuilding in Pakistan, SAIS (Kenney) 9:30-11:30 June 12
With Libya’s first nationwide democratic election quickly approaching, serious progress on political and institutional development is essential as the country proceeds with its transition. While re-establishing security remains vital in the short term, many long-term development challenges also require immediate attention, including building effective, accountable institutions at the national and local levels; developing an independent and diverse civil society; establishing and protecting a free, professional press; and reforming the military, police, and other security forces. Meanwhile, Libyans must engage in a national dialogue on how to ensure adequate representation in government for women, youth, and and various tribal and ethnic groups. By smartly leveraging domestic resources and international assistance, the Libyan people could be well-positioned to build a prosperous and free country.
What will the assembly elections – originally slated for June 19th but now expected to be delayed until July – look like? What are the major political forces emerging in the country and how are they preparing for the elections? How will the election of a national assembly affect the role of the National Transitional Council (NTC)? What are the top priorities for the Libyan government, particularly regarding institutional reform? How can Libyans develop a robust civil society and ensure freedom of opinion, press, and assembly? Which best practices from other state-building efforts would be most appropriate for the Libyan case? In particular, how might various models of federalism and decentralization be useful? And what is the most constructive role for international actors to play in supporting capacity-building, among other needs?
Director of Iraq, Iran, and North Africa Programs, Center for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations, U.S. Institute of Peace
Executive Director, POMED
President, American-Libyan Council
Associate Director, Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative, Center for American Progress
Click here to RSVP for the event.
We’ll also be live-tweeting from the event, so follow the conversation at #POMEDLib. If you’d like us to ask one of your questions, we’ll try to include a few from our virtual audience.
Please contact Anna Newby at anna.newby@pomed.org with any questions, or call (202) 828-9660, ext 23.
6. The State of Health in Afghanistan: Implications for Economic Stability, Security and Women, USIP, 3:30-4:30 June 12
Despite the number of negative trends in Afghanistan, tremendous achievements have been gained in the health sector. Most notable is the programming on maternal health, which has contributed to a significant decline in infant and child mortality rates. The percentage of female healthcare worker has risen dramatically in USAID-funded healthcare facilities.
How has the health sector improved the overall health of a country? What can we learn from the Ministry of Health that might be applied to other sectors? How has the sector supported economic stability and security? What are the country’s health goals as Afghanistan prepares for its security and political transitions in 2014?
Please join USIP’s Center for Gender and Peacebuilding, in collaboration with the Afghan Embassy, the Department of State and USAID, for a panel discussion on the health sector’s contribution to economic stability and security in Afghanistan leading to 2014. The minister of Public Health of Afghanistan, Honorable Dr. Soraya Dalil, will discuss the “state of health” in Afghanistan. She will be joined by U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues Melanne Verveer and Michele Schimpp, deputy director for USAID’s Afghanistan and Pakistan Task Force.
Panelists
- The Honorable Dr. Soraya Dalil
Minister of Public Health - Ambassador Melanne Verveer
Ambassador at Large for Global Women’s Issues, U.S. Department of State - Michele Schimpp
Deputy Director for Afghanistan and Pakistan Task Force, USAID - William Byrd, Discussant
Senior Expert in Residence, U.S. Institute of Peace - Kathleen Kuehnast, Moderator
Director, Center for Gender and Peacebuilding, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. The Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR): Complementarity or Cooperation between State, USAID and the NGO Community, USIP, 9-4:30 June 15
After Secretary of State Hillary Clinton introduced the QDDR as a major step in elevating development alongside diplomacy as a key pillar of American foreign policy, many non-governmental organizations (NGOs) welcomed the QDDR as the beginning of a better coordinated and more effective approach to global development. USIP and Webster University will host a day of discussion about how the QDDR complements NGO efforts in development, humanitarian relief and conflict management as well as the current challenges and opportunities that result from the QDDR.
This discussion will be built around presentations from senior United States government officials from the Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development and from leaders in the NGO community. These will be followed by panel discussions that combine the perspectives of policymakers and NGOs on the topics of economic development, public health, education, human security, and human rights.
USIP was among the organizations that contributed ideas to the development of the QDDR, particularly in the areas of stabilization and conflict prevention. Discussion of the QDDR and its goals will enhance the effectiveness of both NGOs and the U.S. Government in global development and conflict prevention efforts, particularly in building local capacity and promoting innovation.
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What in the QDDR is relevant to the work of NGOs and private voluntary organizations (PVOs)?
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How will the objectives of the QDDR affect NGOs and PVOs?
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Where is there complementarity in the following areas?
- Conflict Prevention
- Capacity building
- Development of effective civil society
- Humanitarian aid
- Contributions of new technology
Download Conference Agenda
Speakers
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Nancy Lindborg
Assistant Administrator, USAID -
Melanie Greenberg
President and CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding -
Lindsay Coates
Executive Vice President, Interaction -
Ambassador Robert Loftis
Former Acting Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization, the Department of State -
David Wilson
Dean of Humanities, Webster University -
Jeff Helsing
Dean of Curriculum, U.S. Institute of Peace
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