Tag: Iran

Stevenson’s army, January 13

Taiwan voted for a president viewed as less friendly to Beijing.

Additional strikes against Houthis, and more details.

Fred Kaplan is supportive; Bloomberg’s Marc Champion sees a win for Iran

Biden defends his authority, sent notice to Congress.

– I agree, both since Congress has endorsed anti-piracy operations since 1790 and since international law supports freedom of the seas. [Enshrined in UNCLOS, though US hasn’t yet ratified.]

– Reminder: CRS often has good background materials, such as this.

-WaPo says US diplomats helped avert a coup in Guatemala.

– Defense One article criticizes another military nomination hold.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 8

– Why does DNI think Israel will be in trouble if war expands to Lebanon?

– Why does MITRE think US intelligence is deficient in covering China?

– How dramatic is the new Japanese defense posture?

What’s behind ouster of so many Chinese defense officials?

– Why didn’t we know about SecDef Austin’s hospitalization?

– What’s in the new budget deal?

– Can US keep its base in Niger?

– How bad are new threats linked to Iran?

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 4

–The Hill says GOP may give Trump an effective veto over any border security legislation, thus jeopardizing any Ukraine-Israel-border package.

-Punchbowl says House GOP now wants to tie border issue to government funding fight, making shutdown more possible after Jan 17.

– New poll says 25% believe FBI instigated Jan 6 attacks.

– WaPo debunks Trump claim about Jan  6 Guard troops

– US says Iran blasts may have come from ISIS groups, not Israel

– WSJ says DOD wants drone bases in West Africa

-WSJ says Russia will buy Iranian missiles

-In FT, sanctions expert warns against seizing Russian assets.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, December 26

– WSJ reports on US intelligence efforts in China

– NYT summarizes the Trump plan for government in a new term

-US attacked Iran-backed militias in Iraq

– Economist reports investigation of MH-17 shot down over Ukraine in 2014 

– WSJ reports on Egypt plan for Gaza

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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The cacophony is deafening but unnecessary

Just one example…

It is hard to make good sense of the varying perspectives on the Gaza war. Let me try to suggest they need not be so cacophonous.

Israel and the United States are diverging

The dissonance between Israel and the United States is get louder. They agree on the war objective of destroying Hamas in Gaza, whatever that means. But President Biden is pressing Israel to allow more humanitarian aid, protect civilians, ease the crackdown on the West Bank, and agree to turn over Gaza eventually to a renewed Palestinian Authority. Biden is also worrying out loud about declining international support for Israel and about the extreme nationalists in Israel’s right-wing government.

Prime Minister Netanyahu will have none of it. He wants Israel to be responsible for Gaza security after the war and to conduct a deradicalization operation, whatever that is. The Prime Minister claims Israel is already doing everything reasonable to allow humanitarian assistance and to protect civilians. He is uninterested in bringing the Palestinian Authority into Gaza and is continuing the crackdown in the West Bank. He hopes to stay in power, at least so long as the war lasts. That will make it last longer.

Arab disharmony

This is not the only disharmony evident around Gaza issues. Arab countries are anxious to signal support for a ceasefire in particular and Palestinians in general. But they in fact have done little to pressure Israel or Hamas for one. The Abrahamic accords remain in place and the Arab signatories (and possible future signatories) are not doing anything to limit Israeli economic and military capabilities. Nor is there any sign they are helping to block Hamas from resupplying.

Gaza has split the Arab world. Syria, Hizbollah-conditioned Lebanon, and Houthi-ruled parts of Yemen are trying to aggravate Israel’s challenges. Iran is supplying and cheering them on, thus prolonging the agony of the Gazas the “resistance axis” claims to support.

Others would be happy to see the destruction of Hamas, which is especially non grata in Egypt and the UAE. Those two countries loathe Islamist politics, especially the Muslim Brotherhood version from which Hamas descends. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and even Qatar don’t want to see Hamas win and thereby seize the banner of Palestinian liberation.

Even within Israel and in the West Bank, there are conflicting Arab views. Some Palestinians within Israel came to the aid of Jews on October 7. In the West Bank, however, Hamas has gained support.

American Muslims, Christians, and Jews

Inside the United States, there is growing discomfort among the majority of Jews, who lean heavily Democratic, with Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza. That contrasts with the Christian right solid support for Israel. Liberal American Jews largely agree with American Muslims on a ceasefire and on a two-state solution. The vast majority of American Jews differ from more radical Muslims and supporters who are pro-Hamas or oppose the idea of a Jewish state.

Harmonizing

The cacophony is unnecessary. Here are a few propositions that many would support:

  1. Hamas has proven itself devoted to mass murder of civilians. Disempowering it is vital, though its Islamist ideology will survive.
  2. The current conduct of the war is not the only way to disempower Hamas and does not appear to be succeeding. It is killing a disproportionate number of civilians relative to modest military accomplishments.
  3. Israel should end the military attacks and hunt Hamasees responsible for the October 7 murder and mayhem individually. Many Arab states would be prepared to cooperate, quietly, in that effort.
  4. A massive relief operation is already needed for Gaza. The requirements will increase once the war stops. The US, Europe, the Gulf, and Israel need to prepare to meet those requirements.
  5. American and Israeli Muslims, Christians, and Jews should unite in supporting humanitarian assistance and reconstruction.
  6. Governance of Gaza after the war will be an enormous challenge. If it is not met, guys with guns, many of them former Hamas, will run local protection rackets, trade in drugs and other contraband, and continue to attack Israel when the opportunity arises.
  7. Chaos of that sort on Israel’s border is in no one’s interest, especially Egypt and Jordan (because of the likely infection of the West Bank) but also the Gulf.
  8. A clear roadmap to a two-state solution would offer a political outcome most Palestinians would find attractive and most countries, other than Iran’s proxies, could support.
  9. This would need to start with renewal of the Palestinian Authority, through presidential and parliamentary elections as well as convening the Palestinian Legislative Council.
  10. It will also require replacement of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his extreme right-wing coalition in Israel with politicians prepared to deal with the Palestinian Authority once renewed.

Not everyone will agree with these propositions. But they are a start in building a consensus among today’s dissonant voices.

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Stevenson’s army, December 1

– NYT says Israeli intelligence got 40-page Hamas attack plan a year ago but dismissed it as “aspirational.”

– Brown University institute says US has counter-terrorism efforts in 78 countries.

-WSJ reports on Israeli plans to get Hamas fighters.

– Avoid a BRAC – what lawmakers want to protect.

– House votes to freeze Iran funds.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

– Carnegie paper discusses legal conditions on aid to Israel

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