Tag: Latin America
Counterproductive
The loss of a large part of Notre Dame de Paris is profoundly sad. There is little I can say to amplify what so many others have already written. But sadder still is a President of the United States who can’t keep his mouth shut and always seems to choose the most destructive course of action. In this case, he suggested:
So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!
What neither he nor I knew was that dumping water on an ancient stone building can weaken its mortar and cause even more damage than the fire, perhaps even collapse of the whole structure.
This is Trump’s modus operandi. He is unable to acknowledge that he may not know better than others, which requires that he surround himself with yes-people. They encourage his self-aggrandizement, preventing any reevaluation or self-correction. So Trump cancels US assistance to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, hoping that will somehow block their citizens from leaving. No one can say him nay. But that move is pretty much guaranteed to make conditions in those three countries worse and cause more asylum-seekers to arrive in the US, not fewer.
Ditto policy on Iran. Trump’s tight squeeze there without support from Europe, China, or Russia is strengthening Iran’s hardliners and making even extension of the Iran nuclear deal, which begins to “sunset” in just a few years, more difficult. National Security Adviser Bolton has even begun to lay the foundation for a military attack on Iran, by claiming it could be done under the existing Congressional Authorization to Use Military Force. One more Middle East war: precisely what the world needs right now. Iraq and Afghanistan haven’t yet cost enough.
Double ditto on North Korea, where the President has lurched from threatening (nuclear) war to befriending one of the world’s worst tyrants and meeting with his good friend (shall I say lover?) twice to no good effect. Now the Administration is contemplating a third meeting. What’s that saying, attributed to Einstein, about doing the same thing and expecting a different result?
Triple ditto on the Israel/Palestine conflict, where Trump is trying to squeeze the Palestinians by denying them humanitarian and law enforcement assistance. There aren’t enough desperate young Palestinians ready to take up the cudgels?
In none of these situations is it difficult to imagine the Trump Administration’s decisions making things go from bad to worse. And there are others:
- the decision in Syria to withdraw, then not to withdraw, but still to withdraw;
- the President’s comment that US troops should stay in Iraq to keep an eye on Iran, which makes it more difficult for Iraqi politicians to give the necessary approval;
- telling the world the US isn’t interested in Libya, which opened the door to a military push on Tripoli likely to re-ignite the civil war there, or possibly lead to re-imposition of a military dictatorship;
- threatening military action in Venezuela, where everyone understands there is no serious military option, thus reducing the US to a paper tiger;
- continuing to cozy up to President Putin despite Russian behavior in Ukraine and the Sea of Azov, not to mention interference in US politics on a daily basis;
- the threat to close the Mexican border, which would devastate the US and Mexican economies.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the President is incorrigible, mainly because he doesn’t abide correction. His response to criticism is to double down on failed policy and hope that will work, or turn 180 degrees and hope that will. It doesn’t. The more this shambolic Administration continues, the more the rest of the world, friends and enemies, will adjust by hedging that reduces American influence. Trump is destined to be remembered as not just ineffective but also counterproductive.
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The Berlin Wall is falling in Venezuela
The Atlantic Council held a discussion on January 30 about supporting the new Venezuelan interim government (VIG) led by Juan Guaidó. The panel included Carlos Vecchio, chargé d’affairs to the United States of the interim government of Venezuela, Julio Borges, VIG representative to Lima Group, David Smolansky, former Mayor and exiled activist. They were joined by David O’Sullivan, Head of EU delegation to the US, Manuel Maria Cáceres, Paraguay ambassador to the US, Alfonso Silva, Chile Ambassador to the US, and Edward Royce, former chairman of the House International Relations Committee.
Vecchio spoke about three types of pressure to make President Maduro quit power: internal pressure by the opposition; pressure from the National Assembly, which Vecchio sees as the legitimate democratically elected institution; and pressure from the international community. The regime has always tried to play the dialogue card to get enough oxygen and to divide and manipulate the international community. But unless Maduro is gone, the sociopolitical condition will not change and constitutional transition to a stable democracy will not be possible.
Borges spoke about three intersecting factors that prevented Maduro from falling quickly: the military, oil, and Cuba. Nowhere in Latin America have these three factors ever coincided. Maduro came to power and led Venezuela to ruin, including the economy. A few generals along with Cuba are keeping hold of the country. According to Borges, two dynamics persist in Latin America: the axis of Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela still play the Cold War card and the rest of the countries, who follow the post-Cold War rules of freedom and democracy. But Borges is optimistic the Berlin Wall is falling in Latin America thirty years later, opening the door to a new system of democracy, human rights, and freedom.
Exiled in Washington DC for almost eighteen months, Smolansky described Guaidó as the interim president, head of state, and commander of arm forces, promising fair and democratic elections. Almost 3.5 million migrants are the result of the current crisis, the largest in the history of Latin America. Venezuelans are fleeing to neighbors: Colombia has one million, Ecuador seven hundred thousand, Chile two hundred thousand, Brazil more than one hundred thousand, and US more than half a million. For Smolansky, the most viable way out to this crisis is by restoring democracy in the country, regaining its freedom and establishing rule of law.
O’Sullivan presented the EU’s position, which supports transition in Venezuela. The EU did not accept the May election results and decided not to attend the inauguration, preferring to back the National Assembly and interim president Guaidó in restoring democracy. Alarmed by the humanitarian crisis in the country and its implications for the region, the EU provided $66 million for humanitarian support. EU countries have allowed Maduro some time to hold democratic elections, and the member states continue to engage with each other to have one stand on the issue.
As the first country recognizing the interim government, the newly appointed ambassador of Paraguay to the US, Cáceres, stated it was the right thing to do as Venezuelan people are suffering beyond imagination. Cáceres added that upon his recent inauguration, the president of Paraguay gave a pledge to support the people of Venezuela. A few days later, Paraguay broke diplomatic relations.
Silva stressed the commitment of Chile to the freedom in Venezuela. Although losing the resolution to recognize the interim government by one vote at the Organization of American States (OAS), Silva stressed the importance of more diplomacy to convince countries in the region and elsewhere to recognize Guaidó as legitimate. Venezuela needs humanitarian aid; pressure should be brought on Maduro to allow it in.
Royce painted the humanitarian situation as dire. Maduro’s military controls the importation of food and medicine. He also brought in the Chinese ZTE cooperation to run the social credit system, which makes Venezuelans rely on a card from the government to get food, pension, medicine, and basic services. ZTE, which belongs to Chinese intelligence, tracks people who write on social media through a database, and if you are against the regime, you will end up in jail. Jails are at over capacity. Out of 83,000 people in jail, 60% do not have potable water, leading to malaria and tuberculosis outbreaks.
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Smart only if it succeeds
I’ve hesitated to write about Venezuela, a country I don’t know, but perhaps a few words based on experience elsewhere are in order.
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó is claiming to be the constitutional interim president replacing Nicolás Maduro, who still controls the security forces. The US, EU and many other countries, including most of Latin America, are recognizing Guaidó’s claims. US sanctions are depriving Maduro of the country’s revenue from oil sales to the US, which is a big part of its hard currency earnings. Russia, China, and others are backing Maduro.
Is the effort to displace Maduro and replace him with Guaidó smart? Certainly Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, impoverished Venezuelans and denied them their rights, wrecking the economy and reducing much of the population to desperation. Guaidó’s claim that in the wake of a stolen election the National Assembly has the right and responsibility to name an interim president sounds reasonable.
But success is by no means guaranteed, even if the US sends the marines as National Security Adviser Bolton has hinted the President might. That is unfortunate, as the military threat is entirely a unilateral one. The Administration’s best bet for getting what it wants in Venezuela is multilateral: the 14 Western Hemisphere countries of the “Lima group” have rejected the results of the May election as invalid. Their political weight is a much better diplomatic instrument than the military threat.
But in the end Maduro’s fate will depend mainly on what Venezuelans do and how they do it. The best bet based on experience elsewhere is peaceful protest of one sort or another. Violence will only make it harder for the security forces to go over to Guaidó. And nonviolence generally has quicker and more democratic outcomes. It requires enormous discipline and unity to overthrow an autocrat, especially in a country that has suffered decades of deterioration. But violence and disorder will not appeal to those whose mass presence in the streets is vital to making a transfer of power happen.
There is a risk it won’t work. Venezuela could end up like Cuba: ostracized and impoverished, but with a dictatorship that most of the population is willing to tolerate for fear of worse. Or it could end up at war with itself, or occupied by the US. Maduro and Chávez before him mobilized lots of enthusiasm in the past among poorer Venezuelans. Guaidó’s move and American support for it will only be judged smart if he succeeds, not if the effort fails and leaves a basket case. Some smart people think it can work. Let’s hope they are right.
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Blithering
This is a president of the United States in near total self-delusion. Ninety percent of what he says and implies in this rambling peroration is untrue. The simple facts are these: most undocumented immigrants and drugs in the US come through regular border crossings, few come through areas where this is no fencing, crime rates by undocumented immigrants are lower than by native-born Americans, and the overall numbers of undocumented immigrants have fallen dramatically for decades. There is no immigration crisis and no need for more than modest extensions and modernization of existing border barriers.
Trump belatedly realized that closing down of a large part of the US government in order to get border wall funding was a big political mistake. Republican Senators had started to defect on keeping the government closed, and Senate Majority Leader McConnell was warning Trump that he could no longer hold the line. Trump’s approval rating, already unusually low, had fallen further. The strong economy he inherited from Barack Obama is starting to tremble. Special Counsel Mueller has indicted one of Trump’s closest pals for crimes incident to long-denied cooperation with Wikileaks on release of Russian-hacked documents purloined from Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.
Things are going to get a lot worse.
The re-opening of the government is only for a few weeks. But Trump won’t be able to shut it down again. Instead he is threatening to declare a national emergency that would give him authority to spend money on his border wall. That move would trigger lawsuits that will prevent any border wall construction for years to come.
The Special Counsel has now unveiled a web of cooperation between Trump’s campaign, his friends, Wikileaks, and Russia that suggests the worst: a candidate for President not only willing to accept illegal foreign assistance, but to do so in the form of stolen emails. For details, see law professor Jennifer Taub’s Tweetsummary:
Thread We Have Seen the Mueller Report –– And It’s Spectacular 1/
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Up a creek
Last night’s presidential statement from the White House in defense of adding hundreds of miles to the existing wall along the border with Mexico fizzled. Trump hoped to excite the country in favor of declaring a national emergency. He failed because he used shopworn arguments that simply aren’t valid.
Trump is up a creek without a paddle. He has embarked on a partial government shutdown that cannot go on much longer without causing serious harm to his own fan clubs (especially in the agricultural sector) and to the country’s economy. Agricultural loans and subsidies need to be paid, food stamps that support agricultural prices need to be distributed, Federal courts need to remain open, data on the economy has to be collected, the weather bureau has to do its thing, and a thousand other services have to continue. Serious, unprecedented economic harm could result if the shutdown lasts another week.
The Democrats have remained solidly opposed to border wall funding, for good reasons: there is no evidence significant drugs or terrorists come across the border where there is no wall. When they come, it is mostly through the well-guarded ports of entry. There is no crisis at the border, where apprehensions are down over the past two decades and the numbers of ill children and other humanitarian cases are entirely manageable by a competent Administration. The Democrats see the wall for what Lindsey Graham said it was: a metaphor for border security (or maybe for stopping immigration entirely), but not a real factor in border security, which they have been willing to fund in substantial amounts.
Trump would do well to follow the well-worn path of Presidents who declare victory and retreat. It isn’t even hard: he can declare a national emergency and his intention to build the wall with Defense Department funds as well as announce that he will foil the Democratic plot to close the government by reopening those parts of it he deems vital to the American people. The wall won’t get built anytime soon, as he’ll be taken to court. Many of his ill-conceived initiatives languish there, but he’ll be able to get those parts of the government he likes operating again. Caveat emptor: my wife works at the Smithsonian, which however isn’t likely to be one of his priorities.
The Democrats, who are passing bills to reopen the government piece by piece, will object, but the debate would shift away from the foolishness of shutting down a large part of the US government to whether he can or cannot use Pentagon funding to build the border wall, which by now has become a glorified fence of steel slats because the Border Patrol has told Trump that his concrete wall would not be a good idea. They want to be able to see what is happening on the Mexican side.
I don’t know what the courts are likely to do with Trump’s national emergency scheme, if he pursues it. They are generally deferential to any president who declares what he is doing a matter of national security. Never mind that it isn’t.
When you are up a creek without a paddle, go with the current. The Democrats in the House are offering bills to reopen parts of the government. Trump would be smart to approve them, while declaring a national emergency that isn’t one.*
*PS: The list of “national emergencies” as of August 2017 suggests his won’t be the only national emergency that is not really a national emergency.
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The southern border crisis is a fraud
Here is the Department of Homeland Security basis for declaring that there is a humanitarian crisis at the southern border: from December 22-30
- The United States Border Patrol has referred 451 cases to a medical provider. Of those, 259 were children. 129 children are under the age of five. 88 are between the ages of six and fourteen, and 42 between the ages of 15 to 17.
- 17 individuals including six children are currently hospitalized with illnesses.
- On average, the Border Patrol is referring approximately 50 cases a day to medical providers. December 26, 2018, Border Patrol referred 82 cases to a medical provider.
This is not a crisis: more like a minor perturbation that can readily be handled by existing medical capacity. Two hundred and fifty-nine children along 2000 miles of border is on average one every 8 miles or so. About 12 million people live near the border. Is DHS really trying to tell us that medical service capacity for 12 million people cannot easily handle 259 children, only 6 of whom require hospitalization? But it is worse than that, because these children could be handled in medical facilities throughout the US, a country of 326 million people.
This is not a crisis. Saying so is a fraud. It is also a transparent effort to distract attention from the deaths of two children who had been held in US government custody.
But what about unauthorized immigration, terrorists, and drugs? Apprehensions of unauthorized immigrants, which are generally viewed as indicative of the numbers of unauthorized immigrants, have declined sharply since 2000, from over 1.6 million to 310,000 in 2017. No terrorists are known to have entered the US from Mexico in recent years.* Most drugs entering the US do so through legal ports of entry, as do most unauthorized immigrants. This is only one reason why a wall on the southern border is useless. Most of the border not already fenced or walled is terrain that is difficult to cross, few try, and the border patrol is effective at catching them.
In recent years, more Mexicans have been leaving the US than arriving. There is however a surge of families trying to reach the US from Guatemala, Honduras, and Salvador. They have good reasons: poverty, gang violence, and political repression are among them. If you don’t want them to migrate, you’ve got to deal with those problems, a conclusion that led the Obama Administration to amp up development and rule of law assistance in Central America. The Trump Administration is threatening to eliminate those programs, in a misguided attempt to punish the governments involved.
President Trump has been backing off his demand for wall money for weeks now. It started out as a concrete barrier, now it is just steel slats, sometimes he claims it is already being built, and maybe it might be just a fence, but in any case one that will not have to line the entire 2000-mile stretch of the border, and maybe he is asking for only $2.6 billion rather than $5.7 billion.
But every time it appears the Administration might be moving in the direction of compromise, Trump yanks the rug out from under his negotiators, including the Vice President, and reasserts his maximum demands. Now he is asking for over $10 billion for the wall plus. In the absence of an agreement, the President is threatening to declare a national emergency and use the military to build the wall, but that proposition is a sure-fire way of ending up in court for years of complex litigation. He has also suggested he might keep the government shut for years. That is not a credible threat, but it underlines how desperate he is getting.
In the meanwhile, the institutions we use to prevent unauthorized immigration are not functioning. Immigration courts are at a standstill, border patrol agents are going unpaid, and the companies are unable to use the system that they are supposed to use to verify the immigration status of employees. Trump is claiming that the furloughed Federal employees support the shutdown because they want the wall, but he has also said most of them are Democrats so he needn’t worry about them. Trump’s own heavily rural constituency is uncomfortable: American agriculture depends heavily on government funding for both production and consumption. Those mechanisms are grinding to a halt, as are the Internal Revenue Service and other vital government bureaucracies.
The Democrats in Congress are clear and unequivocal: they have refused to provide money for any sort of extension of the physical barrier but are prepared to provide $1.3 billion for border security. The newly inaugurated Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, whom Trump once said was weak, seems to have rock-solid support in her caucus, and some Republicans are moving in her direction. She is not wavering.
No doubt a compromise of some sort that allows reopening of the government will eventually be worked out, I would guess next week if not this. But the political consequences of the government shutdown are yet to be fully realized. We can never be sure, but it is looking like a big loser for Trump, who somehow convinced himself he could get from a Democratic-controlled House funding for a border wall that he failed to get from a Republican-controlled one. The crisis is not at the border, but rather in Washington, where the ultimate deal maker is proving inept.
*Here is an update: six people on a US government list of “known and suspected” terrorists were stopped at the border in the first half of 2018. Seven times as many were stopped at the Canadian border, where no one is claiming there is a crisis. I needn’t comment on the likelihood of error in a USG list of the known and suspected.
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