Tag: Middle East
Peace Picks | November 2nd – November 6, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. How Will the 2020 Presidential Election Shape U.S. Policy in the Middle East? | November 2, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM AST | Brookings Institute | Register Here
In the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, the United States faces unprecedented domestic and international challenges. Domestically, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage unabated, having already caused over 200,000 fatalities and an economic crisis rivalling the Great Depression. The country is also grappling with sharp social and political polarization, as demonstrated by ongoing protests against police brutality and racism, as well as the controversy over who will replace the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. Internationally, great power competition is ramping up, even as the global economy struggles to absorb the double hit of COVID-19 and falling oil prices.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region continues to grapple with its own challenges, not only the economic impact of COVID-19 and lower oil prices, but also ongoing conflicts, failure of governance, as well as rising tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Amid this turmoil, the Trump administration has pursued inconsistent policies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, upending long-standing norms to mixed success.
The Brookings Doha Center and Arab Barometer invite you to attend a webinar on the potential impact of the 2020 U.S. elections on the MENA region. The discussion will address the following questions: How will the results of the U.S. election affect the country’s policies in the MENA region, and vice versa? How does the Arab public view the U.S. and what does a continuation of a Trump presidency mean versus a Biden presidency in the eyes of ordinary citizens in the region? How might the Trump administration’s efforts to promote Israeli normalization and sanction Iran impact voter opinions? And in what ways would a Biden administration be likely to build upon or break away from the current U.S. policies in the region?
Speakers:
Adel Abdel Ghafar (moderator): Fellow – Foreign Policy, Brookings Doha Center
Michael Robbins: Project Director – Arab Barometer
Maha Yahya: Director – Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East
Tamara Cofman Wittes: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Samer Shehata: Professor of Middle East Studies – University of Oklahoma
2. Elections in the Time of COVID-19: Brazilian Edition | November 2, 2020 | 2:00 – 2:45 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
In Brazil and the United States, both continental-sized democracies, holding national elections takes significant planning and management—and COVID-19 has only brought new challenges to election authorities in both countries. But unlike in the United States, where more than 3,000 counties are each responsible for their own electoral process, the supervision and administration of elections in Brazil falls largely on the Superior Electoral Court (TSE): the highest body of electoral justice in Brazil. In coordination with the regional electoral courts, the TSE has been tasked with protecting poll workers and voters alike in more than 5,500 cities across Brazil during the upcoming municipal elections.
Join us for a discussion on the preparations for the Nov. 15 municipal elections—when more than 145 million voters go to the polls in 5,500 cities across Brazil—, the twin challenges of COVID-19 and disinformation, and observations on differing electoral processes in Brazil and the United States.
Speakers:
Justice Luís Roberto Barroso: President of the Superior Electoral Court; Justice of the Supreme Federal Court
Ambassador Thomas A. Shannon, Jr: Co-Chair, Brazil Institute Advisory Council; Senior International Policy Advisor at Arnold & Porter
Paulo Sotero: Distinguished Fellow, Brazil Institute
3. Tbilisi Tallies: Georgia’s Post-Election Outlook | November 2, 2020 | 9:30 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 31 will be held amid a war on its doorstep, a sharp spike in new coronavirus cases, and ramped-up interference from the Kremlin. The recent escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has challenged the fragile security situation in the South Caucasus. Meanwhile, a rising number of coronavirus infections will prevent international election observers from monitoring the election and may depress voter turnout.
On the bright side, Georgia is also set for what may be its most competitive elections to date, after the legislature passed electoral reforms in June aimed at curbing parliamentary supermajorities. Do all of these developments mean that Georgia is entering a new phase? What can observers expect to see next?
Speakers:
Thomas de Waal: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Nino Ghvinadze: Non-resident Fellow, Eurasia Center
Laura Linderman: Non-resident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center
Dr. Lincoln Mitchell: Adjunct Research Scholar, Columbia University
Melinda Haring, moderator: Deputy Director, Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
4. Election 2020: Results and Implications | November 4, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:15 PM EST | Brookings Institute | Register Here
One of the most significant elections in U.S. history is soon coming to an end. Election officials are expecting a large increase of mail-in ballots and early in-person voting, as well as a big turnout on Election Day. This could mean that the process of counting ballots may take more time than in previous elections. Potential legal challenges could also delay the results of key races. But once the votes are all counted, the results will be confirmed—and the implications are vast.
Newly elected policymakers in federal and state government will be expected to immediately address several ongoing national crises, including the coronavirus pandemic, a cratering economy, climate change, and systemic racism—all while working to unite a deeply divided public. How do the election results relate to what’s happening across the country and what can they tell us about the governing challenges that America will face over the next four years?
On November 4, the day after the election, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar examining the results of the 2020 election. Panelists will review election results, the factors that produced that outcome, policy priorities for the president-elect, and the significance of it all for American democracy.
Speakers:
E.J. Dionne, Jr. moderator: W. Averell Harriman Chair and Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Camille Busette: Senior Fellow – Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy ProgramDirector – Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative
John Hudak: Deputy Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Molly E. Reynolds: Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
5. Local Elections and the Future of Local Self-Governance in Ukraine | November 5, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EST | Wilson Center | Register Here
Ukraine began to reform local government in 2015 as one of the demands of Euromaidan. Since then, the key achievement of decentralization policy was the empowerment of local communities through merging local districts. These new local governments broadened the scope of their agenda and budget as they merged. In July 2020, the Rada radically decreased the number of local administrations, or rayons, from 490 to 136. The October 2020 local elections brought new leadership into these administrations. Vita Dumanska, Olena Lennon, and Mykhailo Minakov will discuss the results of the local elections, who now governs these reformed localities, and what the consequences of the elections might be on local reforms in the near future.
Speakers:
Vita Dumanska: CEO, CHESNO Movement
Olena Lennon: Former Title VIII-Supported Short-Term Scholar; Adjunct Professor of Political Science and National Security, University of New Haven
Mykhailo Minakov: Senior Advisor; Editor-in-Chief, Focus Ukraine Blog
William E. Pomeranz, moderator: Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
6. The Korean Peninsula After the U.S. Election | November 5, 2020 | 8:00 – 9:10 AM EST | Wilson Center | Register Here
President Donald Trump’s first four years in the White House sparked dramatic shifts in diplomacy in Northeast Asia, including historic summits with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, protracted military negotiations with South Korea and rising strategic competition with China. What could the next four years look like for Asia if he is re-elected? And what changes and challenges might we anticipate if former Vice President Joseph Biden wins the November election?
As Americans head to the polls, experts from the United States, South Korea and Europe examine how foreign policy in the region will be impacted by the man who takes the White House in January 2021. Whether President Trump wins a second term or former Vice President Biden seizes the presidency, the Nov. 3 presidential election is bound to have a deep impact on the Korean Peninsula, including how to rein in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, navigate a rising China and restore fraying alliances.
Speakers:
Joseph Yun: Senior Adviser to the Asia Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace and Former U.S. Special Representative for North Korea policy
Kim Joonhyung: Chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in South Korea
Jean H. Lee: Director, Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy; Journalist and former Pyongyang Bureau Chief, Associated Press
Kim Jiyoon: Political Analyst and Host of Jiyoon Kim’s Evening Show on TBS FM
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, moderator: KF-VUB Korea Chair, Institute for European Studies
7. Why is Reform Hard in Ukraine? | November 5, 2020 | 11:30 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Reform efforts in Ukraine have faced numerous challenges in 2020. In March, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired many of the reform-minded technocrats in his cabinet and replaced them with establishment figures. Anti-corruption efforts are stymied by courts backed by special interests, while oligarchs and Russian agents control blocs of lawmakers in the Verkhovna Rada, rendering legislative reform difficult.
Once again, “business as usual” has prompted skepticism in the Ukrainian people. Local elections in late October delivered a sound rebuke of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party, which lost seats in regional parliaments across the country and performed poorly in major mayoral races. What explains the complicated reform dynamic in Ukraine? What can Western partners do to help Ukraine get back on track?
Speakers:
Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk: Former Prime Minister of Ukraine; Distinguished Fellow at the Eurasia Center
Dr. Tymofiy Mylovanov: Former Minister of Economic Development, trade, and Agriculture of Ukraine
Serhiy Verlanov: Former Head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine
Melinda Haring: Deputy Director, Eurasia Center
Ambassador John Herbst, moderator: Director, Eurasia Center
8. “New” Saudi Arabia: Social Change, Economic Obstacles, and Western Alliances | November 6, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Saudi Arabia’s socioeconomic reforms and progress toward Vision 2030 has been widely celebrated, at the same time as the autocratic actions and human rights abuses by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have received international condemnation. A more globally connected Saudi population is paving the way for greater progress and reform as the government pursues economic diversification initiatives and gradual social liberalization reforms. At this crossroads, Saudi Arabia’s economy has been hit by the Covid-19 pandemic and the oil price wars.
Given that the US-Saudi alliance historically has been closely tied with economic relations and energy markets, how might these converging economic challenges impact the bilateral relationship? How might shifting sociopolitical dynamics within the kingdom affect its approach to relations with Western countries? What does the history of US-Saudi relations tell us about the complex interplay of economic, political, and security interests the US has in the Gulf, and how that might impact reform progress in the next decade?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a conversation between David Rundell and Victor McFarland, two leading scholars who have recently published books detailing different aspects of the Kingdom’s ascent over the past two decades.
Speakers:
Victor McFarland: Associate professor, Department of History, University of Missouri
David Rundell: Career diplomat; author
Kristin Diwan, moderator: Senior resident scholar, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
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Peace Picks | October 26 – October 30, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Elevating Humanitarian Action in Sudan’s Democratic Transition | October 27, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
On October 19, the White House announced it was taking steps to delist Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism (SST), clearing the way for increased international assistance and opportunities for development financing. Removing Sudan from the SST list is long overdue and comes at a pivotal moment for its nascent political transition. Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimated that 9.3 million people in Sudan would need humanitarian assistance in 2020. Now, months of heavy flooding have led to increased displacement, while high levels of inflation are making it increasingly difficult for people to purchase food and limiting the services humanitarian organizations can provide.
Sudan’s ongoing democratic transition has enabled increased humanitarian access for multilateral aid organizations, yet restrictions on NGOs remain, and prospects for enhanced access are uncertain. As peace negotiations and the democratic transition continue, political leaders in Sudan must ensure that meeting humanitarian needs remains at the forefront of their agenda.
In a follow-up to our recent commentary, this webinar will highlight the enduring humanitarian needs in Sudan and examine how Sudanese political actors can prioritize humanitarian needs during the state’s democratic transition. To help understand these issues, we will be joined by Dr. Suliman Baldo, Senior Advisor at The Sentry, and Hala Al-Karib, Regional Director at the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa.
Speakers:
Dr. Suliman Baldo: Senior Adviser, The Sentry
Hala Al-Karib: Regional Director, Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa
2. Local Elections, National Implications: Ukraine at the Ballot Box | October 27, 2020 | 12:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Ukraine’s local elections on October 25 are highly contested and impossible to predict. Following President Zelenskyy’s landslide victory last year, he and his party have fallen in the polls, with approval ratings hovering below 35 percent. With deadlocked peace talks, a continued war in the Donbas, stalled reforms, and increased coronavirus cases devastating the economy, a 2019-style victory for Servant of the People is increasingly unlikely. The new electoral code, which bars independents from running in districts with more than 10,000 citizens, further complicates the picture.
Mykhaylo Shtekel, Odesa correspondent and Donbas reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Ukrainian Service, Nataliya Sedletska, editor-in-chief and host of RFE/RL’s “Schemes: Corruption in Detail”, Adrian Karatnycky, Eurasia Center senior fellow and managing partner at Myrmidon Group LLC, and Brian Mefford, Eurasia Center senior fellow and managing director at Wooden Horse Strategies LLC, will analyze the results and what they mean for Ukraine’s future. Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, moderates.
Speakers:
Mykhaylo Shtekel: Odesa correspondent and Donbas reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Ukrainian Service
Nataliya Sedletska: editor-in-chief and host of RFE/RL’s “Schemes: Corruption in Detail”
Adrian Karatnycky: Eurasia Center senior fellow; managing partner at Myrmidon Group LLC
Brian Mefford: Eurasia Center senior fellow; managing director at Wooden Horse Strategies LLC
Melinda Haring: Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
3. Election 2020: Driving Forces and Possible Outcomes | October 27, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:30 PM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
As voters begin casting their ballots in the 2020 election, many issues still have the potential to transform the political landscape and determine the outcome of the presidential election, as well as congressional, gubernatorial, and statehouse races across the country. Voters go to the polls with several serious policy issues on their mind including an economy in recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, health care, race relations, social justice, women’s rights, and the future of the judiciary. These issues raise a number of questions that will determine the outcome of the election.
During a campaign season colored by the pandemic, will congressional leadership and the White House strike a deal for another round of economic stimulus before Election Day? And how will delays in a relief package affect House members and senators in tough reelection fights?
With a Supreme Court nomination in process that has the potential to shape the country for years, will Republican voters show up at the polls on election day to reward GOP Senate candidates like Lindsay Graham, Cory Gardner, and Joni Ernst for voting to confirm Amy Coney Barrett? Will Democratic backlash hurt those senators’ chances for reelection?
Long lines, postal delays, concerns about voter intimidation and suppression, and the possibility of contested elections have raised concerns about the integrity of the U.S. elections process. How will political leaders and courts respond when the influx of mail-in ballots might extend election day to several weeks? And will efforts to disrupt voting strike a chord with voters in affecting their drive to vote and their vote choice?
On October 27, one week before election day, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar to discuss the driving forces and possible outcomes of the 2020 election. Expert panelists will offer their analysis on these and other pressing issues and answer questions from viewers.
Speakers:
John Hudak, moderator: Deputy Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
William A. Galston: Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Sarah A. Binder: Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Rashawn Ray: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Governance Studies
Vanessa Williamson: Senior Fellow – Governance StudiesSenior Fellow – Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center
4. Kyrgyzstan’s Unfinished “Revolution”: How the Upheaval from 2020 Is Different | October 28, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
For the third time in 15 years, protesters in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek have seized and set fire to the “White House,” the seat of parliament and presidential staff. The chaotic situation has toppled President Jeenbekov and is still rapidly evolving, with political actors jockeying for power. It’s a scene all too familiar to Kyrgyzstan, which since 2005 has experienced several cycles of protests and calls for advancing democracy followed by backsliding into authoritarianism. But this time around, even with all the familiar players and moves, there are also strong differences that are worth thorough assessment.
Join USIP for a discussion of the ongoing situation in Kyrgyzstan and its implications for peace and stability in Central Asia. The conversation will examine how organized crime, youth mobilization, social media, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have factored into the crisis. The discussion will also analyze how the United States and the region, including Kyrgyzstan’s Central Asian neighbors and Russia, are assessing and responding to the developments.
Speakers:
Scott Worden, welcoming remarks: Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
Dr. Mariya Omelicheva: Professor of Strategy, National War College
Jonathan Henick: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau for South & Central Asian Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Dr. Andrew Kuchins: President, American University of Central Asia
Dr. Ivan Safranchuk: Leading Research Fellow, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO
Keneshbek Sainazarov: Central Asia Program Director, Search for Common Ground
Dr. Gavin Helf, moderator: Senior Expert, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
5. Women, Democracy, and Peace: A Conversation with First Lady of Afghanistan Rula Ghani and Former First Lady of the United States Laura Bush | October 28, 2020 | 8:00 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Afghanistan is entering a new phase, with ongoing talks offering an opportunity for peace and stability after years of conflict. As the government and the Taliban negotiate peace, questions remain regarding the future of gender equality and minority rights in the country. What will it take to ensure long-term security without compromising on the rights of women and minorities in Afghanistan? How do the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic impact the ability to sustain democratic institutions in the country?
Building upon their longstanding partnership to promote women’s rights in Afghanistan, the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and the George W. Bush Institute invite you to join us on October 28 at 8:00 A.M. (EDT) / 4:30 P.M. (Kabul) for a virtual conversation with First Lady of Afghanistan Rula Ghani and former First Lady of the United States Laura Bush on these issues and to lend their insight into what will need to be done to ensure an equitable and inclusive peace.
Speakers:
H.E. Rula Ghani: First Lady of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Mrs. Laura Bush: Former First Lady of the United States
6. Negotiating Peace: Lessons from the Western Balkans | October 28, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
25 years ago, the Dayton Peace Accords ended conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, violence continued in the Western Balkans, which led to the Kosovo War and the international mediation needed to end it. Even after the conflict stopped, Serbia and Kosovo struggle with their relations. Today, the Western Balkans remains turbulent. Join us as two experienced European negotiators discuss what lessons can be drawn from efforts to negotiate peace in the Balkans, both for the region and elsewhere.
Speakers:
The Right Honourable Catherine Ashton, Baroness of Upholland: Bank of America Chair, Global Europe Program; Former Vice President of the European Commission and former High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
Carl Bildt: Former Prime Minister of Sweden; Former UN Special Envoy for the Balkans; Co-Chair, Dayton Peace Conference
Jane Harman: Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
7. The Implications of Brexit for Ireland: A Conversation with Irish Ambassador Daniel Mulhall | October 29, 2020 | 1:30 – 2:30 PM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Please join us for a conversation with H.E. Daniel Mulhall, Ambassador of Ireland to the United States, about the implications of Brexit for Ireland. This discussion will be moderated by Bill Reinsch, CSIS Scholl Chair and Senior Adviser, and Heather Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and Director of the Europe Program at CSIS.
With the deadline for reaching a trade agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom fast approaching, there is growing concern that new borders, customs procedures and tariffs may be imposed which will harm both the Irish and Northern Ireland economies. The UK government has moved forward with legislation, the Internal Market Bill, which allows the UK government to breach its legal agreement with the EU on Northern Ireland. The EU has recently initiated legal procedures against the UK for this legislation and prominent members of Congress have stated that the Internal Market Bill or anything else that jeopardizes the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, makes a future US-UK trade agreement impossible. U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland, Mick Mulvaney, recently visited Dublin and Belfast to assess the impact of the Internal Market Bill. Irish Ambassador to the U.S., Ambassador Daniel Mulhall will present the Irish government’s perspective on the situation, on prospects for an acceptable resolution, and the economic and political implications if one does not appear.
Speakers:
H.E. Daniel Mulhall: Ambassador of Ireland to the United States
Heather Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and Director of the Europe Program at CSIS
Bill Reinsch: CSIS Scholl Chair and Senior Adviser
8. The Good, Bad, and Ugly: How the World Sees the United States | October 29, 2020 | 9:00 – 9:50 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
Critics make a strong case that the United States has never been less respected or admired abroad than it is today. President Trump’s disruptive policies abroad and his mishandling of the pandemic at home have fundamentally undermined U.S. credibility in the eyes of both allies and adversaries in the short run, but will the damage last? And if Joe Biden wins in November, what will the world expect from U.S. leadership?
Join us as three veteran foreign correspondents, Christiane Amanpour, Steven Erlanger, and David Rennie, sit down with Aaron David Miller to discuss the United States and its role in the world.
Speakers:
Aaron David Miller: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Christiane Amanpour: Chief International Anchor, CNN; Host, “Amanpour & Company”, PBS
Steven Erlanger: Chief Diplomatic Correspondent, Europe, The New York Times.
David Rennie: Beijing bureau chief, The Economist
9. Ten Years On: A Post-Arab Spring Middle East | October 29, 2020 | 2:00 -3:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The conditions that led to the 2011 Arab Spring protests continue to linger in the Middle East and North Africa. Widespread corruption, political repression, human rights abuses, and economic difficulties proliferate throughout the region, and have been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Tunisia is often considered an Arab Spring success story, but despite a number of notable improvements since 2011, its fragile democratic transition has had little impact on the day-to-day lives of average Tunisians, and the economic realities that led to the 2011 uprising largely remain unchanged. In countries such as Syria, Yemen, and Libya, civil conflict and foreign intervention have worsened these crises without addressing the root causes of instability.
How have the Arab Spring protests changed the Middle East and affected regional stability over the past decade? What role does the United States play in the various crises throughout MENA and how does it affect American foreign policy goals?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host its third event in a series to discuss the recently published briefing book, Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East. The briefs in this book offer policy insights from MEI scholars on key issues in the Middle East and serve as a contribution to the broader discussion about the challenges and opportunities for US policy in the region.
Speakers:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari: Non-resident Scholar, MEI
William Lawrence: Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, American University
Charles Lister: Senior fellow and director, Countering Terrorism and Extremism and Syria Programs, MEI
Mirette Mabrouk: Director and senior fellow, Egypt program, MEI
Ibrahim Al-Assil, moderator: Senior fellow, MEI
10. Strengthening Global Safeguards and Security in an Advanced Nuclear Age | October 29, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council and Third Way are co-hosting a virtual event highlighting the potential global market for advanced nuclear technologies, and the important role safeguards and security must play in ensuring US reactors are ready to compete.
We are delighted to invite you to join our virtual event on the afternoon of Thursday, October 29th, 2020, from 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. EDT. Over the last five years there has been significant technological, financial, and policy progress toward developing and commercializing advanced nuclear reactors in the US. But we are not alone in this pursuit. China and Russia are both developing new reactor designs aggressively to capture the emerging market for advanced nuclear and the global influence that will come with it. It is in the best interest of the world for safety, proliferation, and climate reasons, that the US leads the way.
To maintain the United States’ global leadership, advanced nuclear reactors should not only provide affordable, zero-carbon power; they should provide it in a way that builds upon the nuclear security architecture developed over the last five decades. The US government and advanced nuclear developers could be in the position to enhance global nuclear security and safeguards as a new set of aspiring nuclear countries looks at deploying a new generation of nuclear reactors.
The event will feature keynote remarks by Dr. Brent Park, Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration. Immediately following his remarks, Third Way will present a first-of-a-kind international advanced nuclear map and global market analysis, and we will host a panel discussion on the critical role US clean energy innovation can play in reducing emissions in the US, addressing energy poverty around the world, and the challenges and opportunities presented by applying safeguards- and security-by-design to the next generation of nuclear energy technologies.
Speakers:
Keynote remarks
Dr. Brent Park: Deputy Administrator, Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, National Nuclear Security Administration
Panel Discussion
Laura Holgate, Ambassador (ret.): Vice President, Materials Risk Management, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Allison Johnston: Director, Office of International Nuclear Security,National Nuclear Security Administration
Christine King: Director, Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear, Idaho National Laboratory
Kevin Veal: Director, Office of International Nuclear Safeguards, National Nuclear Security Administration
Jackie Kempfer, moderator: Senior Policy Adviser, Climate and Energy Program; Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center
Closing remarks
Dr. Jennifer Gordon: Managing Editor and Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
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Ten years of Arab protests but little change
Almost ten years have passed since the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi sparked mass protests in Tunisia, sparking regime change and brutal civil wars across the Arab world. While most consider the initial uprisings in 2011 an abject failure for the cause of democracy in the region, the resurgence of mass protests over the last two years in Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria and elsewhere demonstrate that the Arab Spring continues to smolder. The Wilson Center convened a panel of scholars to address the future for a region destabilized by ten years of civil unrest.
Rami Khouri: Former Public Policy Scholar; Director of Global Engagement, American University of Beirut, columnist, Agence Global Syndicate, USA, and The New Arab, London and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School
Marina Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Former Senior Research Associate and Head of the Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ziad Abu-Rish: Co-Director, MA Program in Human Rights and the Arts, Bard College; Co-Editor, Jadaliyya
Merissa Khurma, moderator: Program Manager, Middle East Program
The genie is out of the bottle
Rami Khouri, Marina Ottaway and Ziad Abu-Rish all concurred that mass protests were a “new normal” for the Middle East that should be expected throughout the region into the future.
Khouri points to several factors that prompt citizens across the region to protest their governments. The economic situation has become dire for many citizens of Arab states. The middle class has all but disappeared and most governments are no longer able to provide basic necessities for their citizens. Citizens are overwhelmingly turning to civil society for support. COVID-19 has increased inequality regionwide. MENA is the only region that is overwhelmingly authoritarian and adept at suppressing discontent. The resulting clash between the desperation of the citizenry and repression will lead to more mass protests until one side finally gives way.
The speakers concur that the same economic factors that stir discontent can also deprive protests of their strength. Abu-Rish notes that fatigue from economic deprivation has caused a lull in the Lebanese protests after the explosion. Arab governments understand this, and thus are playing a war of attrition against protestors.
Solidarity has grown through shared strife
Rami has noticed another new phenomenon created by a decade of protests – a cross-cutting sense of national identity. Ottoway echoed this sentiment, explaining that as protestors from different walks of life interact with each other, they realize that they are protesting for the same set of basic human needs and are able to overcome their ideological differences. But she cautions that not all Arabs share the same principles of citizenry; some are happy to live under authoritarian leaders if doing so grants them security and privilege.
But opposition needs leadership
Ottaway and Abu-Rish were less optimistic about the prospects of democratization and liberalization in the Middle East than Khouri. The protestors, while they are united in the belief that the status quo must be changed, have competing visions about what should replace it. Ottaway also notes that, historically, change almost always occurs from the top down. The decentralized nature of the protests means that protestors will find it difficult to persuade policymakers that change is needed. She points to Tunisia, Sudan, and the American civil rights movement to argue that change only occurrs because there are leaderships within the opposition that persuaded the ruling elites to make changes.
To watch the event in full, click here.
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Peace Picks | October 12 – October 16, 2020
1. What Do Africans Think About the Continent’s Future? | October 13, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:10 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
New data from Afrobarometer’s latest round of public attitude surveys provide important guideposts for U.S. policymakers and Africa analysts. Findings from 18 countries offer insights on Africans’ aspirations for sovereignty, self-sufficiency, and democratic and accountable governance—as well their inclination toward open borders and free trade rather than protectionism. They also reveal a continued preference for the United States over China as a development model, their rejection of “debt diplomacy,” and their belief that English, rather than Chinese, remains the international language of the continent’s future.
These findings come amid wide recognition that progress on democratic governance in Africa has stalled, with many African governments falling back to authoritarian practices. The effectiveness of U.S. policy has been questioned as a result, and analysts have argued that U.S. policy toward Africa needs to be updated and revitalized. This is especially true in the context of a global pandemic that has undermined African economies and livelihoods, raised threats to governance and the rule of law, and revealed the potential global implications of access to health services.
Join USIP and Afrobarometer for a first look at Afrobarometer’s latest survey research and results, as well as a discussion on how the data can help guide U.S. government policy in Africa and provide key insights for policymakers on trends and potential threats to peace and security in Africa.
Speakers:
Ambassador Johnnie Carson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. E. Gyimah-Boadi: Interim CEO, Afrobarometer
Dr. Carolyn Logan: Director of Analysis, Afrobarometer; Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Michigan State University
Josephine Appiah-Nyamekye Sanny: Regional Communications Coordinator/Anglophone West Africa, Afrobarometer and Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Susan Stigant, moderator: Director, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
2. COVID-19 and the Futures of Conflict in the Middle East | October 14, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Ongoing analysis in the Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Strategic Foresight Initiative is examining scenarios of what conflict in the region could look like in 2025 based on different combinations of factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic. MEI is pleased to bring together experts to pose two important questions: What signals do we see of the pandemic’s impacts affecting foreign policy and conflict behaviors of key actors in the region? How are long standing social dynamics in the region being affected by the pandemic and in turn influencing conflict dynamics?
Speakers:
Alexandra Clare: Co-founder and CEO, Re:Coded
Nancy Ezzeddine: Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute
Ross Harrison: Senior Fellow and Director of Research, MEI
Steven Kenney, moderator: Non-resident scholar, MEI; founder and principal, Foresight Vector LLC
3. The Impact of COVID-19 on Local Peacebuilding in the Middle East | October 14, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
The outbreak of COVID-19 in conflict zones was regarded by many as an opportunity for peace. But today, the stark reality in many conflict zones has shown that the opportunity may have been missed. Cease-fires are being ignored, and the politics of the pandemic have enabled conflict and violence rather than deterred them. The past few months have shown that while the COVID-19 health crisis will eventually subside, its economic, social, and political implications will unfortunately outlive it. In the face of these challenges, how are local peacebuilding efforts in the Middle East coping with the far-reaching effects of the pandemic in both the short- and long-term?
Join USIP and the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) for a panel discussion featuring peacebuilding experts and practitioners from the Middle East. The online conversation will look at the implications of COVID-19 on peacebuilding at the local level in three particular Middle Eastern contexts—Yemen, Syria, and Iraq—as well as how regional and international actors should engage in the Middle East to support local peace actors as they try to preserve the gains they’ve made over the past few years.
Speakers:
Dr. Elie Abouaoun, opening remarks: Director of Middle East and North Africa Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Sultan Barakat: Founding Director, Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies
Dr. Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, opening remarks: Director of Politics and Governance, ODI
Mrs. Nadwa Al-Dawsari: Non-resident Fellow, The Middle East Institute
Mrs. Noor Qais: Program Officer, Sanad for Peacebuilding, Iraq
Dr. Sherine Taraboulsi-McCarthy, moderator: Interim Senior Research Fellow, The Politics and Governance Program (ODI)
4. Conversation on a ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control | October 14, 2020 | 11:30 AM—12:30 PM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
The last remaining U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control agreement, New START, is rapidly approaching its end. President Trump seeks a new agreement that includes China and covers all nuclear warheads. But is this approach feasible? If not, what provisions should be included in a successor to New START?
Please join us for a conversation with James Acton and Pranay Vaddi from Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, as they share insights from their new report: “A ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control: Enhancing Security Through Cooperation.” They will be joined by Alexei Arbatov, and Rose Gottemoeller as moderator.
Speakers:
James M. Acton: Jessica T. Mathews Chair and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program; senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Pranay Vaddi: Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Alexey Arbatov: Head of the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations.
Rose Gottemoeller: Distinguished Lecturer at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. Previously served as deputy secretary general of NATO.
5. Obstacles to a Free and Fair Presidential Election in Syria | October 14, 2020 | 16:00—17:30 EEST | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
Syrian presidential elections are scheduled for 2021. President Bashar al-Assad and his close confidants have said that they will go ahead with the elections without a new constitution and irrespective of whether they meet the standards of the political process outlined in Security Council Resolution 2254.
Holding a fair presidential election would require many legislative changes, and new mechanisms to allow internally displaced persons and refugees to vote en masse. Adding to the complications at a practical level are the opaque and questionable voter rolls and a lack of appropriate voting procedures. Additionally, the political and security environment inside Syria would need to change significantly. Voters would need to feel that the election process is safe, fair, and legitimate. These conditions do not presently exist and achieving them requires far more than minor amendments to the electoral law and voting mechanisms. There is also a need to consider the role of elections as part of a successful peace or transition process. Legitimizing elections prematurely would likely do more harm than good.
What precisely would a fair election in Syria look like? What are the voting options available for those residing outside Syria? What are the practical tasks and timelines required for achieving a free and fair election in Syria—decoupled from arbitrary timelines? Join us on Wednesday, October 14 from 4:00–5:30 p.m. Beirut (3:00-4:30 p.m. CEST) to discuss the upcoming presidential election in Syria. The discussion will be held on Zoom in English with simultaneous interpretation to Arabic. To join, please register for the event here.
Speakers:
Assaad Al-Achi: executive director of Baytna Syria.
Sead Alihodzic: senior programme manager with the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
Dima Moussa: member of the Syrian Opposition Coalition.
Vladimir Pran: senior technical adviser for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems.
Emma Beals: senior advisor at the European Institute of Peace and is an independent consultant focused on Syria.
6. Why Denouncing White Supremacy Creates Safety, Security, and Racial Equity | October 14, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
During the first presidential debate, President Donald Trump avoided an explicit denouncement of white supremacists and instead asked them to “stand down and stand by.” These remarks were reminiscent of his statement after the deadly 2017 white supremacist rally in Charlottesville when he said that there were “very fine people on both sides.” Racist rhetoric from government officials, including calls to incite voter intimidation and promote civil unrest, are sadly not unprecedented in American history. In fact, the increasing use of social media among white supremacists for hate speech, along with the racial and ethnic tribalization surfacing over the last few years, have stifled the country’s attempts to combat racism and systemic inequalities.
While white supremacist groups are finding a geopolitical landscape that has grown more supportive of their rhetoric and activities, Black Americans are also exercising resistance and resilience in light of recent alarming statements. Like the historic civil rights movement, Black Lives Matter has drawn Americans to grapple with contemporary nationalism. America is now in fragile times that deserve the attention of federal, state, and local policies to confront white supremacy and other historical vestiges standing in the way of racial healing and reconciliation.
On October 14, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a conversation on the roots of white supremacy, the impact of racist rhetoric during critical moments in history, and how Black Americans, as well as other people of color, have responded and continue to respond. Panelists will also offer policy recommendations for how the country can promote racial empathy and redress the symptoms of power, race, and privilege, which will be critical issues facing the next administration.
Speakers:
Nicol Turner Lee, moderator: Senior Fellow – Governance StudiesDirector – Center for Technology Innovation
John Allen: President – The Brookings Institution
Keisha N. Blain: Associate Professor of History – University of Pittsburgh2020-2021 Fellow, Carr Center for Human Rights Policy – Harvard University
Fredrick C. Harris: Nonresident Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Darrell M. West: Vice President and Director – Governance StudiesSenior Fellow – Center for Technology Innovation
7. Examining the EU-Iran-US Triangle | October 15, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Since the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement in May 2018, France, Germany and the UK (the E3 countries) have been under pressure from both Washington and Tehran. The Trump administration has tried unsuccessfully to gain E3 support for its sanctions-based maximum pressure policy, including the extension of the arms embargo on Iran resulting in tensions at the UN Security Council. Tehran has been pressuring the bloc for economic aid and sanctions relief while lobbying the E3 to save the JCPOA and defend Iranian interests. Within Iran, leaders including Supreme Leader Khamenei have been particularly critical of the E3 and called for Iran to build stronger ties with more dependable states like China.
Frustrated by Tehran’s destabilising regional activities and escalation of its uranium enrichment program and Washington’s unilateral approach, the E3 has maintained unity on its JCPOA strategy. It has not however been able to provide meaningful political and economic solutions, resolve differences between Tehran and Washington, or address the many outstanding bilateral issues on the table.
In this webinar, organized by the Middle East Institute and Chatham House’s MENA Programme, speakers will discuss and unpack the triangular challenges and opportunities for Washington, Tehran, and the E3 and consider how the US presidential election might impact dynamics going forward.
Speakers:
Clément Therme: Post-doctoral research fellow, Nuclear Knowledges Program, Sciences Po; research associate, School for Advanced Studies in Social Sciences
Sanam Vakil: Deputy director and senior research fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Azadeh Zamirirad: Deputy head, Middle East and Africa Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Alex Vatanka, moderator: Director, Iran Program, Middle East institute
8. Lessons for Afghanistan from Colombia’s Peace Process | October 15, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Formal talks are underway between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban to end over four decades of violent conflict and instability. At this vital phase of the Afghan peace process, it’s important to draw lessons from recent negotiated settlements. The comprehensive settlement between the Colombian government and the FARC has become one of the most widely recognized examples of how a comprehensive peace process can address the root causes of violence and result in a political settlement. While the Colombian and Afghan conflicts are distinct in many ways, Colombia is an important reference point that could provide some valuable insights and an imperfect roadmap for Afghanistan.
There isn’t a single standard model for negotiations—but analyzing historical processes, understanding their application, and identifying opportunities to adapt to specific contexts can serve countries who seek to resolve and transform seemingly intractable conflicts.
Join USIP and the Embassy of Afghanistan for a discussion on important lessons from the Havana Process with the FARC, highlighting both the successes and shortcomings of the negotiation and its implementation. This is the first discussion in an ongoing series launched by the Embassy of Afghanistan that examines peace processes around the world. Panelists will explore the importance of political consensus building, how to address continued violence, the role of neighboring countries and third-party facilitators, among other pressing issues.
Speakers:
Scott Worden, welcoming remarks: Director of Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
Her Excellency Roya Rahmani: Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan to the United States
Bernard W. Aronson: Founder and Managing Partner, ACON Investments. Former U.S. Special Envoy to the Colombian Peace Process
Humberto de la Calle: Former Colombian Government Chief Negotiator, Former Vice President of Colombia
Sergio Jaramillo: Senior Advisor, European Institute of Peace. Former Colombian High Commissioner for Peace
Dag Nylander: Director, Section for Peace and Reconciliation, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Former Norwegian Special Envoy to the Colombia
Alejo Vargas Velásquez: Director of the Center on the Peace Process, Vice Dean on Research, Faculty of Law, Political and Social Sciences, National University
Belquis Ahmadi, moderator: Senior Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace
Paula Garcia-Tufro, moderator: Project Director, U.S. Institute of Peace
9. Russia and China: Common interests and rivalry in South Caucasus and Central Asia | October 16, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Russia’s recent Kavkaz 2020 military exercises have demonstrated the scale and scalability of Russian military capabilities in the broader Caspian region. A number of other states, including China and Iran, also took part in Kavkaz 2020, which was an impressive show of military force. The recent renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan have underlined the fluid power politics of the region where Moscow’s once dominant position is under question.
Is such multilateral military cooperation a signal of a genuine deepening of Russian-Chinese understanding and cooperation in this part of the world that Moscow has for so long considered to be its “near abroad”? What is the nature of the Russian-Chinese relationship overall in and around the Caspian region; what are the areas of complementarity and how much of the joint Russian-Chinese efforts are aimed at countering American and other Western interests?
Speakers:
Mark Galeotti: Non-resident scholar, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
Bruce Pannier: Senior Central Asia correspondent, RFE/RL; editor, Qishloq Ovozi blog
Niva Yau: Resident researcher, OSCE Academy in Bishkek; fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Alex Vatanka, moderator: Director, Iran Program; senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
10. Russia’s War in Donbas: Ripe for a Resolution? | October 16, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
More than six years after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine, there is little evident movement toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The implementation of a package of measures dubbed the “Minsk II” process—which calls for a cease-fire, troop withdrawal, the return of border control to Kyiv, and local elections—is bogged down. Both Ukraine and the international community are looking for new solutions that would bring about a long-awaited peace.
Join USIP and prominent experts and policymakers for a discussion on possible solutions for resolving the ongoing conflict. The event will look at the current status of peace negotiations, as well as what a settlement might look like, the war’s political and social consequences and how COVID-19 has exacerbated its effects, and how regional dynamics—including instability in neighboring Belarus—have the potential to influence Ukraine’s security situation.
Speakers:
Ambassador William B. Taylor: Vice President, Office of Strategic Stability and Security, U.S. Institute of Peace
George Kent: Deputy Assistant Secretary, European and Eurasian Bureau, U.S. State Department (to be confirmed)
Orysia Lutsevych: Research Fellow and Manager, Ukraine Forum, Chatham House
Oleksii Reznikov: Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine
Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko : Ambassador, Embassy of Ukraine to the United States
Donald Jensen, moderator: Director, Office of Strategic Stability and Security, U.S. Institute of Peace
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The emerging tetrapolar mad world
Pantelis Ikonomou, former nuclear IAEA inspector, writes:
Nuclear weapons are a vital but latent dimension of the growing geopolitical competition. Nuclear capabilities continue to constitute a prime source of power in shaping global power relations amid dangerous non-nuclear conflicts and military confrontations. New power balances are forming.
The main emerging poles are two well-established ones, the United States and Russia, and two emerging ones, China and Europe (led by France as the EU’s last remaining nuclear power post-Brexit). The US and Russia have failed in efforts to engage China in new nuclear and ballistic missile agreements. France is trying to exercise leadership in Europe and the Mediterranean. French President Emmanuel Macron has offered to open a “strategic dialogue” with willing European states prepared to accept the central role of France. He pointed out that “Europe should reinforce its strategic autonomy in the face of growing global threats and stop relying solely on the United States and the Transtlantic Alliance for its defense”
Any excited system will sooner or later reach a state of equilibrium. A tetrapolar structure is emerging around the leading nuclear weapon states: the US, Russia, China and France. These four nuclear powers are flanked by others based on criteria of pragmatism and strategic necessity. The whole process is guided more by bilateral agreements than existing treaties and international institutions. The new tetrapolar world order appears as follows:
- Around the US superpower stand nuclear UK as well as Israel, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and several European NATO states. The connecting force within this pole is American geopolitical primacy and its ambition to strategically control East and South Asia.
- Around Russia will stand India, several former Soviet states, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and sometimes Turkey and Egypt. This pole’s source of cohesion is nuclear deterrence against the Chinese threat, as well as geopolitical influence in the Middle East region.
- Around China are Pakistan, North Korea and the majority of the developing countries in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). In this nuclear pole the predominant parameter is China’s nuclear deterrence of its US, Russian, and Indian adversaries as well as Chinese economic, military and political assistance.
- France would be flanked by several southern European, Middle East and African states (and occasionally by Israel). The prevailing link in this alliance, besides historical and cultural references, is strategic influence on the wider region and security against a rising adversary, Islamic extremism.
Once a stable equilibrium is achieved, this new tetrapolar nuclear world order might allow the leading nuclear powers to realize the vast global threat they pose to humankind through their bilateral standoffs. Nuclear disarmament as requested by the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT, Art. VI) and emphatically repeated by the international community in the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty of July 2017 should be a top priority. De-escalation of the current nuclear race and terminating weapons “modernization” ought to be the initial objectives of the world powers aiming eventually to complete and irreversible global nuclear disarmament.
The current nuclear threat to humanity arises from the suicidal so-called MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) nuclear strategy, It ought to be abolished. The threat of a nuclear apocalypse, whether by intent, accident, or miscalculation, will be at its highest level ever so long as MAD prevails in this tetrapolar world.
* This article draws on the author’s book “Global Nuclear Developments – Insights of a former IAEA nuclear inspector,” Springer, May 2020.
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Peace Picks | September 21 – September 25, 2020
1. Global China: Examining China’s Approach to Global Governance and Norms | September 21, 2020 | 9:30 – 10:45 AM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Over the last several years, the world has seen China taking on more responsibility and power in international institutions. China’s growing activism has provided a glimpse into its ambitions to assert a greater role for itself on matters of global governance. China’s growing activism also has raised key questions about the scale of Beijing’s ambitions and the tools it would be willing to use to advance them.
On September 21, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a webinar to address these and other questions concerning China’s evolving approach to international institutions, rules, and norms. The event will launch the next tranche of Brookings papers released as part of its series “Global China: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World.” From human rights to energy to trade, these papers present a range of arguments for observers of China and policymakers to consider as they evaluate China’s role on the international stage.
Viewers can submit questions by emailing events@brookings.edu or by joining the conversation on Twitter with #GlobalChina.
Speakers:
Jeffrey Feltman: John C. Whitehead Visiting Fellow in International Diplomacy – Foreign Policy
Lindsey W. Ford: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Sophie Richardson: China Director – Human Rights Watch
David O. Shullman: Senior Advisor – International Republican InstituteAdjunct Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security
Patrick W. Quirk: Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
2. Reporting on 2020: Free Press, Disinformation, and Election Integrity | September 21, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
A free and independent press is essential to open societies and functioning democracies. As elections draw nearer in the United States, media is navigating how to provide the public with the facts in an information environment unlike any before. The coming months will include an election with increased vote-by-mail due to the ongoing pandemic, the continued attempts of foreign adversaries to interfere in the elections, political operatives undermining the credibility of journalism, misinformation — and more malicious disinformation — about all of it.
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab on Monday, September 21 from 1:00-2:00pm ET for a discussion with leading journalists and editors on their role in the integrity of the upcoming election. We will speak with these expert journalists and editors, experienced in covering national security, technology, and elections, on their approach to delivering fact-based news to sustain an informed public, as well as avoiding the amplification of disinformation in a landscape rife with it.
Speakers:
Andy Carvin: Resident Senior Fellow, Digital Forensics Research Lab
Stacy-Marie Ishmael: Editorial Director, Texas Tribune
Ellen Nakashima: National Security Reporter, Washington Post
Brandy Zadrozny: Reporter, NBC News
3. Ecological Threats to Peace | September 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Global warming, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels are already adversely affecting food and water security throughout the world—leaving the least resilient countries with an increased risk of political instability, social fragmentation, and economic collapse. A more accurate measurement of levels of exposure to tomorrow’s ecological threats is key to helping these countries maintain peace today and can enable others to better prepare and adapt for the future.
The new Ecological Threat Register (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, synthesizes and visualizes data on environmental indicators to estimate which countries, regions, and areas are most vulnerable to environment-induced conflict. In particular, the ETR underscores that 141 countries are vulnerable to ecological threats, and that approximately 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by ecological disasters in the next 30 years.
Join USIP and the Institute for Economics and Peace for a look at the inaugural Ecological Threat Register, as experts explore the nexus between conflict and climate change and consider strategies for boosting resilience to climate-induced insecurity. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #EcoThreat2020.
Speakers:
Sagal Abshir: Non-Resident Fellow, Center on International Cooperation, New York University
Michael Collins: Executive Director, Institute for Economics & Peace
Dr. Joseph Hewitt: Vice President for Policy, Learning and Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Catherine-Lune Grayson: Policy Advisor, International Committee of the Red Cross
Tyler Beckelman: Director, International Partnerships, U.S. Institute of Peace
4. Whither the Middle East: More Conflict or New Peace? | September 23, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Lebanon is in chaos as it struggles to rebuild politically and physically. Tensions between Iran and the United States are again mounting over access to arms and their rivalry in the region, with fears of a showdown this fall. Syria is nearing a decade of war, with no imminent prospects of peace or reconciliation. ISIS still has an estimated 10,000 fighters menacing Iraq and Syria. Yet, amid these volatile times, Israel and the U.A.E. signed the first peace agreement in more than a quarter century. Where is the Middle East headed—toward more conflict or new peace?
Speakers:
Merissa Khurma: Program Manager, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars
Daniel Kurtzer: Former Ambassador to Israel and Egypt; Professor of Middle East Policy Studies at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Vali Nasr: Former Dean and Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University
Maha Yahya: Director, Carnegie Middle East Center
Robin Wright: USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow; Journalist and Author
5. The Perils of Polarization in Southeast Asia | September 23, 2020 | 11:15 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Rising levels of political polarization are hurting democracy in many Southeast Asian countries. The coronavirus pandemic is only ratcheting up political pressures further. Drawing on a new Carnegie Endowment report, “Political Polarization in South and Southeast Asia: Old Divisions, New Dangers,” this event will examine two critical cases—Indonesia and Thailand—to gain a regional understanding of why polarization is increasing, its political effects, and how political and civic actors can take steps to address it.
This event is being held in collaboration with Freedom House.
Speakers:
Thomas Carothers: Senior Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a leading authority on international support for democracy, human rights, governance, the rule of law, and civil society.
Janjira Sombatpoonsiri: Associate Fellow at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies and researcher at the Institute of Asian Studies at Chulalongkorn University, Thailand.
David Timberman: Director for Asia programs at Freedom House.
Eve Warburton: Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore.
6. COVID-19 and Cease-fires: What Have We Learned? | September 23, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
In March, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called for a global cease-fire to combat the spread of COVID-19. Though initially dismissed as unrealistic, the secretary-general’s call was surprisingly well-received: Nearly 70 countries, hundreds of nongovernmental organizations, and eminent persons joined in repeating the call for a humanitarian pause to address the growing pandemic. In response, several conflict parties announced unilateral cease-fires, including the National Democratic Front in the Philippines, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the National Liberation Army in Colombia. Two months later, the U.N. Security Council adopted resolution 2532, calling on conflict parties across the world to support a 90-day humanitarian cease-fire.
However, since then, it has been challenging for any bilateral or multilateral cease-fires related to the pandemic to materialize, despite the spread of COVID-19 to numerous conflict zones, including Yemen and Syria.
Join USIP for a timely discussion on the strategies needed to pursue effective cease-fires in conflict zones. Drawing from recent reports, including the recent USIP publication “Searching for COVID-19 Cease-fires: Conflict Zone Impacts, Needs, and Opportunities,” panelists will consider the correlation between political willpower and conflict resolution, how the secretary-general’s cease-fire appeal was perceived on the ground in conflict zones, and whether international pressure could make a difference in advancing the secretary-general’s call.
Speakers:
Roxaneh Bazergan: Senior Political Affairs Officer and Team Leader, Mediation Support Unit, U.N. Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs
Christine Bell: Professor of Constitutional Law and Assistant Principal, The University of Edinburgh School of Law
Ashish Pradhan: Senior Analyst, U.N. Advocacy and Research, International Crisis Group
Tyler Thompson: Senior Expert, Negotiations and Peace Process Support, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. Security at the Maritime Edge | September 24, 2020 | 10:45 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
No global supply chain is independent of maritime transport and most are existentially dependent on it. In fact, greater than 90% of all global trade tonnage is transported by sea. While vulnerabilities in widely used software or control systems are a concern, the greater source of risk is systemic inadequacies in the public-private partnership for maritime cybersecurity and shortfalls of both capacity and coordination amongst critical stakeholders across the global security community. The lifeblood of global energy networks runs through the ocean. The cybersecurity of systems, from offshore renewable energy, to fossil fuel transport to major transshipment hubs, to floating production, storage, and offloading vessels, is an increasingly significant factor in the security of energy system as a whole.
To begin a conversation towards a strategy to address these issues, the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative under the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security invites you to join us for a virtual discussion, “Security at the Maritime Edge” on Thursday, September 24th from 10:45am-12:00pm. The event will feature opening remarks from Rear Admiral Mark H. “Buz” Buzby (USN, Ret.), Maritime Administrator for the U.S. Department of Transportation and a panel moderated by Captain Jason Tama, Commander, Sector New York; Captain of the Port of New York and New Jersey, United States Coast Guard and featuring Ms. Kathy J. Metcalf, President and Chief Executive Officer, Chamber of Shipping of America; Dr. Xavier Bellekens, Lecturer and Chancellor’s Fellow, Institute for Signals, Sensors, and Communications, University of Strathclyde; Captain Alex Soukhanov, Managing Director & Master Mariner, Moran Cyber; Mr. Kevin Stine, Chief of the Applied Cybersecurity Division, NIST U.S. Department of Commerce; and Ms. Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar, Ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy, Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Please join this conversation via the web application Zoom, which is accessible through your web browser, the Zoom desktop or mobile app, and by phone. If you wish to join the question and answer period, you must join by app or web. Register below receive further information on how to join the virtual audience.
Speakers:
Captain Jason Tama: Commander, Sector New York; Captain of the Port of New York and New Jersey, United States Coast Guard
Ms. Kathy J. Metcalf: President and Chief Executive Officer, Chamber of Shipping of America
Dr. Xavier Bellekens: Lecturer and Chancellor’s Fellow, Institute for Signals, Sensors, and Communications,University of Strathclyde
Captain Alex Soukhanov: Managing Director & Master Mariner, Moran Cyber
Ms. Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar: Ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy, Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Mr. Kevin Stine: Chief of the Applied Cybersecurity Division, NIST U.S. Department of Commerce
8. The Catholic Church and Peacebuilding | September 24, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
For decades, the Catholic Church has served as a mediator in high-level negotiation efforts involving governments and nonviolent movements vying for human rights, democracy, and peace. With its deep connections to communities, institutional ties to governments, and global diplomatic status, the Catholic Church is uniquely positioned to help grassroots activists and peacebuilders collectively vocalize grievances and key demands while providing guidance and managing relationships with national and local governments. While this dual role has not been formally codified and varies based on context, it has implications for the Church’s ability to support people power movements, peace processes, and conflict prevention efforts globally.
The Church is able to advance peace globally by building strategic and tactical bridges between grassroots nonviolent action and peacebuilding actors, as well as investing in their development and capacity building. But this role is not without challenges. Can the Church serve as an effective mediator while openly denouncing human rights violations and government crackdowns against nonviolent activists? Is it possible for different Church actors to effectively assume different roles in the context of popular movements for peace and democracy? What does this look like practically and what can we learn from past cases?
Join USIP for an event that will explore how and where the Catholic Church is able—or has the potential—to effectively support peace processes and people power movements by operating at the grassroots, engaging at the formal level, and liaising in between. The speakers will share anecdotes and stories from their rich experiences, offering an opportunity to discuss current perspectives around violence prevention and conflict transformation in the Catholic Church.
Speakers:
Bishop Robert W. McElroy: Bishop of San Diego, Roman Catholic Diocese of San Diego
Scott Appleby: Marilyn Keough Dean, Professor of History, University of Notre Dame
Sergio Cabrales: Nicaraguan Fulbright Scholar and Graduate Student, University of Pittsburgh
Marie Dennis: Senior Advisor, Pax Christi International
Maria Stephan: Director, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
9. U.S. and the Middle East: Lessons from the Obama and Trump Administrations | September 24, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
The U.S. administration that takes office in January 2021 will formulate policies toward the Middle East and North Africa amid rising great power competition, a shifting energy landscape, and a diminished public appetite for military interventions. What lessons can be learned from the experiences of the two previous administrations? Re-Engaging the Middle East, a new book of essays edited by Dafna Rand and Andrew Miller, takes up this question across a range of countries and thematic issues.
Join us on Thursday, September 24, for a panel discussion that will bring together former Obama and Trump administration officials alongside experts from the MENA region. Together, they will take a critical look at U.S. policies under both presidents with a view toward recommendations for the next administration.
Speakers:
Alexander Bick: research scholar at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He served as Syria director at the National Security Council and on the policy planning staff under Secretaries of State Hillary Clinton and John Kerry.
Joyce Karam: Washington correspondent for the National and has covered American politics extensively since 2004, with a focus on U.S. policy towards the Middle East.
Mick Mulroy: Senior for National Security and Defense Policy at the Middle East Institute. He served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East under Secretaries of Defense James Mattis and Mark Esper.
Dafna Rand: Served as deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s policy planning staff, and on the staff of the National Security Council.
Marwan Muasher: Vice President for studies at Carnegie, where he oversees research in Washington and Beirut on the Middle East.
10. The Fallout of the War in Syria | September 25, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:15 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
The Syrian conflict has been devastating both within the country and outside its borders. Neighboring Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq have all suffered from disproportionate social and economic impacts as well as a decrease in GDP. Trade and tourism have taken a hit, while poverty rates have increased and labor market conditions have deteriorated. Yet, the regional interdependence that has led to such negative impacts may also hold the answer to addressing these challenges. A regional approach could unlock creative solutions that ultimately bring stability and even prosperity.
Join USIP for an in-depth presentation and discussion of the World Bank’s new publication, “The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria.” The panel will include the report’s lead author as well as regional experts who will provide insight on the economic and social effects that the Syrian conflict has had on its neighbors.
Speakers:
Saroj Kumar Jha: Regional Director of the Mashreq Department, World Bank
Harun Onder: Senior Economist, World Bank; Lead Author, “The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria”
Randa Slim: Senior Fellow and Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, Middle East Institute
Natasha Hall: Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mona Yacoubian: Senior Advisor for Syria, Middle East, and North Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
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