Tag: Israel/Palestine
Making retreat sound good
The United States is getting ready to retreat from Afghanistan. After more than 19 years of war following the 9/11 Al Qaeda attacks, Washington has reached an agreement for a seven-day lull in attacks (not a formal ceasefire), after which the Taliban will negotiate a broader peace with Afghanistan government officials supposedly acting in their personal capacities. The US will reduce its presence from 13,000 troops to below 9,000 within months, whether or not the Afghans reach an agreement. Other arrangements remain secret but presumably include some sort of Taliban pledge not to provide safe haven to international terrorists as well as commitments on human rights, though these are likely to be vague, unenforceable, and perhaps worthless.
What this amounts to is US retreat from a theater in which more than about 2500 American military have lost their lives, and something like 10 times that number have been wounded. President Trump will vaunt this as fulfilling his campaign promise to end endless wars, but a substantial number of troops will remain at risk. The Afghanistan government may survive in Kabul, but the Taliban already control about 18% of its districts and contest another 48%:
US withdrawal and refocus on counterterrorism will likely increase those percentages, unless the Afghan security forces demonstrate much greater capability than they have to date.
At this point, there isn’t much of an alternative. The American public, pliable as it is on use of force in a crisis, doesn’t want recommitment to the fight in Afghanistan. President Trump has long been impatient with the war there. The Democrats don’t like it either. It has been clear since last fall’s abortive agreement, which Trump cancelled at the last minute due to renewed violence, that the American envoy, Zal Khalilzad, had no mandate or desire to press the Taliban for more than a decent exit and commitment to staving off Al Qaeda and the Islamic State.
The Taliban see them at least in part as rivals for establishing Islamic governance, so there may be some reason to hope that they won’t quickly provide the kind of safe haven that Osama bin Laden enjoyed in the 1990s. Taliban ambitions mainly focus on restoring the Islamic Emirate inside Afghanistan, not projecting power beyond or provoking further intervention. They may even be prepared to fight the more internationally minded jihadis, if only to keep the Americans from renewed activity.
Afghanistan’s President Ghani, however, will have a lot to worry about once the Americans have drawn down. New York and Washington will not be at immediate risk, but Kabul will be. The population there may not want the Taliban to return, but history suggests the government has a hard time defending itself from insurgents in the countryside. Factiousness is endemic in Afghanistan. Ghani is not a man who compromises readily, and he wrote the book on Western-style statebuilding: Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World. Protecting the human rights of women, minorities, and Afghans committed to real democracy is going to be a tall order.
This is not the first of Trump’s retreats. He settled for little in the renegotiation of NAFTA, caved on the tariff war with the Chinese, backed off denuclearization of North Korea, all but abandoned the opposition to President Maduro in Venezuela, and floated a peace plan for Israel and Palestine that dropped like a stone. While he remains verbally belligerent to Iran, he thankfully seems to have given up on the drive to war. He has little to nothing to show for his belligerence and bravado on the world stage, where he is regarded more as buffoon than champion, except in Israel and Russia.
Being able to claim that he has ended the long war in Afghanistan will stand Trump in good stead with those who know nothing about Afghanistan during the coming election campaign. The flim-flam man will make a necessary retreat sound good.
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Realism redefined
Different from previous plans, Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan addresses key issues like borders, Jerusalem, settlements, and refugees. Although the plan has enraged the Palestinians , it has received a much more favorable reception from many states than experts predicted, such as Europe and the Middle East. Without a Palestinian partner, is the plan destined, as its critics argue, to fail? Or will it, as its supporters claim, reshape the conflict in significant, beneficial, and lasting ways?
On February 11, the Hudson Institute hosted a panel discussion on the topic of “President Trump’s Plan for Peace in the Middle East.” The discussion featured two speakers: Michael Doran and Jon Lerner. Both serve as senior fellows at the Hudson Institute.
Previous plans vs Trump’s
Lerner and Doran noted that Trump’s plan addresses all final status topics in detail, including Jerusalem, settlement, borders, and right to return, while previous plans left out these issues. Lerner believes that Trump’s plan accepts the reality, contrary to previous plans that sought to change reality on the ground. This plan guarantees Israel’s control over a unified Jerusalem rather than dividing the city. Since it is impossible for Israelis to uproot settlements from the West Bank, Trump legalizes Israeli settlements. Although this plan is a setback for Palestinians, it creates an independent Palestinian state with a capital, grants economic support to Palestinians, allows Palestinians access to Israeli ports, and proposes a tunnel connecting the West Bank and Gaza.
Bilateral or trilateral?
Because most Arab states have more concerns other than than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, they didn’t offer united supports to pressure Israel into concessions, Lerner says. Due to the lack of support, Palestine should consider engaging with the US and Israel. Lerner predicts that,
- If the Palestinian were to engage in negotiations but didn’t accept the plan, they would receive a receptive audience, which could force Israel to stop its annexation.
- If the Palestinians don’t engage in negotiations, which is likely, Israel will keep moving forward and weaken the Palestinians further.
Lerner thinks the Palestinian made a wrong choice to cut all dialogue with the US after Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017. Instead, the Palestinians should have rejected Trump’s decision and worked with him on a plan until they achieved what they want. Lerner urges the Palestinian to engage in negotiations, or they will be more likely to lose ground.
US interests
Doran argues that the US has more issues in the region nowadays and needs to cooperate with its allies. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has weakened its Israeli ally, especially after Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza failed to bring stability. If the US forced Israel out of the West Bank and handed its control to Abbas, he would not have the capability to maintain control and fend off Hamas. Jordanian security could not be guaranteed either. Lerner added that the US avoided the unproductive perception of even-handedness with allies on one side, and sympathy towards Palestinians on the other. Trump’s plan is rooted in realism and the administration’s support for allies.
Lerner pointed out that irrespective of who wins the presidential election in November, the content of this plan has changed political dynamics in both Israel and the US. It will be hard for the Israeli government to accept a less generous plan than Trump’s in the future. It will also be difficult for future US administrations to propose any plan more like previous plans and less like Trump’s plan.
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Stevenson’s army, February 12
– Last year I asked a group of friends with longtime experience in the US intelligence community whether I should be worried about Huawei. Sure, they said. But would China really use the company to spy on us? I asked. They responded, we would if we could. And now we know we did. That’s the story released by WaPo yesterday and on 3 pages today. And then last night, NSA O’Brien disclosed that Huawei already can access telecom networks.
-A few days ago I praised the Harris & Sullivan article calling for economics to play a bigger role in US national security strategy. Dan Drezner says, hold on,not so fast, and questions our ability to do economics smartly. Since I respect his views on so many topics, his points are worth considering.
– Duterte says begone to US military forces, triggering a 180 period ending our status of forces agreement. He’s cozying up to China.
– NYT says Trump has tentatively approved a deal with the Taliban.
– O’Brien defends Vindman dismissal.
– FP article says Trump Israel plan is like one Israel proposed in 1979.
– And New Hampshire? I say there’s now a better than 33% chance that the Democratic convention will take more than one ballot to choose a nominee next July in Milwaukee –the first such situation since the Democratic convention in 1952.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | February 10 – 14
Forging the Army’s Future | February 10, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council for the latest event in its Commanders Series, “Forging the Army’s Future,” a public conversation with General John M. Murray, Commanding General of United States Army Futures Command. The event will take place on Monday, February 10, 2020 from 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. at the Atlantic Council’s Headquarters (1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, West Tower Elevators, Washington, DC 20005).
Since releasing the 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the United States has shifted its geopolitical focus toward renewed great-power competition with Russia and China. 2018 also saw the activation of Army Futures Command, designed to prepare today for military challenges decades in the future. The Army identified six key areas for modernization and assigned eight Cross-Functional Teams to see each to fruition. These modernization priorities are designed to support Multi-Domain Operations, the Army’s new concept for future combat across the spectrum of conflict.
Yet one of these priorities–the Next Generation Combat Vehicle–suffered a setback when the Army canceled its solicitation for Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle prototypes in January 2020. Does the cancellation signal early problems or does it demonstrate the success of the high ambitions and learning model that undergirds Army Futures Command? The answer to these questions will depend in large part on the Army’s ability to prioritize and deliver on its ambitious goals.
As the Commanding General of Army Futures Command, General Murray will join us to discuss how Army Futures Command is reinventing innovation in the Army. This conversation will focus on how the Army identifies priority capabilities for this new era of great-power competition, and how it plans to continue doing so for generations to come.
Rohingya– Beyond the Crisis Narrative: Statelessness and the Implications for Myanmar and Bangladesh | February 10, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Council of American Overseas Research Centers | Register Here
Speakers
Mabrur Ahmed is the Founder and Director of Restless Beings, an International Human Rights organization based in London
Rahima Begum is an artist, researcher and Founding Director of the international human rights organisation, Restless Beings
Shireen Huq is a co-founder of Naripokkho, an organization focusing on women’s rights in Bangladesh
Ali Riaz is a Bangladeshi American political scientist and writer. He is a Distinguished Professor at Illinois State University
Samira Siddique is a PhD student in the Energy and Resources Group and Researcher at the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at UC Berkeley
Prashanta Tripura is an academic anthropologist turned development professional, who is currently Project Director- Aparajita: Political Empowerment of Women at HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation in Bangladesh
Yasmin Ullah is a Rohingya refugee born in Northern Rakhine state of Myanmar. She currently serves as the President of Rohingya Human Rights Network, a non-profit group advocating to raise public awareness of the human rights violations against Rohingya people
Sanchita Saxena (Moderator) is the Executive Director of the Institute for South Asia Studies at UC Berkeley and the Director of the Subir and Malini Chowdhury Center for Bangladesh Studies under the Institute
A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order | February 10, 2020| 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Disputes over the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia are at the core of the breakdown in Russia-West relations, and have created major security and economic challenges for the states caught in between: first and foremost Ukraine, but also Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Current policy approaches toward the regional order—i.e., the set of rules, norms, and institutions that govern the region—have exacerbated today’s disorder and instability. The authors of a new report offer a comprehensive proposal for revising the regional order. The proposal, which addresses the security architecture, economic integration, and regional conflicts, was devised by four groups of experts convened by the RAND Corporation and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe. Each group included representatives from the West, Russia, and the states in between.
Speakers
Alexandra Dienes, Research Associate, Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Vasly Filipchuk, Senior Adviser, International Centre for Policy Studies
Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Cooperation
Yulia Nikitina, Associate Professor, World Politics and Research Fellow, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)
Paul Schwartz (Moderator), Research Analyst, CAN
Jeffrey Mankoff (Discussant), Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Documentary Film Screening: “On Her Shoulders” | February 11, 2020 | 5:00 PM – 6:35 PM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center, in association with the Embassy of the Czech Republic, are pleased to present the award-winning documentary On Her Shoulders (2018, 94 mins, English subtitles) about the life of Nadia Murad, winner of the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize for her “efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and armed conflict.”
Directed by Alexandria Bombach, the film follows the life and struggle of Murad, a Yazidi woman who was among the 7,000 women and children captured by ISIS in the summer of 2014, and forced to become sex slaves and child soldiers. After surviving the genocide of Yazidis in Northern Iraq, Murad becomes a tireless activist, alerting the world to the massacres and kidnappings in her homeland.
The film is programmed in parallel with the exhibit Speaking Across Mountains: Kurdish Artists in Dialogue and as part of the annual One World International Human Rights Documentary Film Festival held in Prague, one of the largest human rights film festivals in the world.
Tea and baklava will be served at the beginning of the event.
Sanctions Against Russia: Successes, Failures, and Future Prospects | February 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the war in Donbas in 2014, international sanctions have been a key instrument in exerting pressure on the Russian government to end the conflict. However, the current sanctions regime is plagued by a number of flaws and is in need of improvement. Vasyl Filipchuk and Anastacia Galouchka will analyze current sanctions, future prospects, and how the application of sanctions against Russia can be improved going forward in the context of their new report. The Latvian Ambassador to Ukraine H.E. Juris Poikans will provide opening remarks.
Speakers
Vasyl Filipchuk, Senior Advisor, International Centre for Policy Studies
Anastacia Galouchka, Expert on Foreign Policy and International Law, International Centre for Policy Studies
Ambassador Juris Poikans, Ambassador of Latvia to Ukraine
Reflections on Civil – Military Relations: Crises, Comparisons, and Paradoxes | February 11, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 8:30 PM | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Join the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and Duke University’s Program in American Grand Strategy for the 2020 Conference on Civil-Military Relations. See the schedule online.
This conference will:
- educate the audience on the history of civil-military relations, particularly the legacies of leadership, cultural change, and policy shifts during wartime
- present various dimensions of current civil-military relations debates
- engage the audience on questions of who serves, who is expected to serve, and who should serve in U.S. defense and national security, to include debates on the concepts of national service and the ethos of service
- continue to raise questions of leadership, ethics, and morals within military and civilian command and national service more broadly
Theater of War Productions will return for this conference for a performance of Theater of War: Scenes from Sophocles’ “Philoctetes”. Theater of War is an innovative public health project that presents readings of ancient Greek plays as a catalyst for town hall discussions about the challenges faced by service members, veterans, and their caregivers and families today. The performance of Sophocles’ Philoctetes will be followed by community panelist remarks and a facilitated town hall discussion.
Agenda:
11:00am – 12:00pm Arrivals & Lunch
12:00pm Opening Remarks | What We’ve Inherited: Crises in Civil-Military Relations
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
12:20pm Panel 1 | What We’ve Inherited: Crises in Civil-Military Relations
Moderated by Paula Thornhill, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Peter Feaver, Duke University
Alice Hunt Friend, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Caitlin Talmadge, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
1:40pm Panel 2 | Civil-Military Relations Beyond the United States
Moderated by Nick Schifrin, PBS NewsHour
Risa Brooks, Marquette University
Eric Heginbotham, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sameer Lalwani, Stimson Center
Daniel Marston, Johns Hopkins SAIS
3:00pm Panel 3 | The Future of National Service
Moderated by Aaron Mehta, Defense News
Jud Crane, National Commission on National, Military, and Public Service
Jason Dempsey, Center for a New American Security
Heidi Urben, U.S. Army
4:10pm Closing Remarks | Managing Paradoxes of American Civil-Military Relations Peter Feaver, Duke University
5:00pm Scenes from Sophocles’ Philoctetes By Theater of War Productions Town Hall Discussion to Follow Off-the-Record
6:30pm Reception
7:30pm Live Podcast Recording with War on the Rocks
Nora Bensahel, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Loren DeJonge Schulman, Center for a New American Security
Paula Thornhill, Johns Hopkins SAIS
After Trump: Defining a Progressive U.S. Policy for the Middle East | February 12, 2020 | 8:30 AM – 11:00 PM | The Century Foundation | Register Here
Approaching the brink of war with Iran in early 2020 has highlighted the risks of not pursuing a progressive U.S. policy approach to the Middle East. This event seeks to set forth a sustainable alternative U.S. foreign policy.
We will examine the animating principles and resulting policies of a more progressive approach for the Middle East. Progressive Middle East policy remains a contested concept among both policymakers and the American public: to some, it means an end to overly militarized policies and reducing U.S. commitments to avoid war; to others, it means greater U.S. investments in solving overseas conflicts, acting to prevent atrocities, and advancing human rights. Still others define it in terms of rethinking U.S. partnerships with authoritarian regimes.
A light breakfast will be served at 8:30 AM followed by keynote remarks beginning at 9:00 AM and an expert panel.
Keynote Speakers:
Senator Christopher Murphy (D-CT) s the junior United States senator for Connecticut.
Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA) represents California’s 17th Congressional District, located in the heart of Silicon Valley, and is serving in his second term.
Introductory Remarks:
Mark Zuckerman, president at The Century Foundation
Panelists:
Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow at The Century Foundation
Dina Esfandiary, fellow at The Century Foundation
Sarah Margon, director of U.S. foreign policy at the Open Society Foundations
Melissa Dalton, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond| February 12, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:15 PM | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Janet Lewis is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. Her research examines why and how rebel groups form, with a focus on why many groups fail in the early stages, and what ethnicity has to do with it. Her book on these issues, “How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond,” will be published with Cambridge University Press in 2020. Her other projects seek to understand how news and beliefs travel through word-of-mouth networks in rural communities, and how states administer and monitor their peripheral regions.
She received a Ph.D., M.A. in Government from Harvard University and an M.A. in International Policy Studies from Stanford University.
George F. Kennan and the Establishment of the State of Israel | February 13, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In the wake of World War II and the Holocaust, public sympathy grew in the United States for the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine. Yet in a series of memos in 1947 and 1948, George F. Kennan articulated a consensus view among U.S. diplomatic and military leadership that such a state could usher in Soviet influence in the Middle East, undermine access to oil resources in the Arab states and therefore undermine U.S. national interests in the Middle East and around the world. In this talk, Jeffrey Herf will examine Kennan’s memos, the context of their emergence, and their consequences for U.S. foreign policy at the dawn of the Cold War and beyond.
Speaker
Jeffrey Herf, Fellow, Distinguished University Professor, Department of History, University of Maryland, College Park
A Changing Ethiopia: Understanding Medemer | February 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | The United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Nobel Peace Prize winner and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has unveiled a new political philosophy for his country: “medemer,” an Amharic word which literally translates as “addition,” or “coming together.” But what are the key principles of medemer, and how can they be applied both domestically and abroad? How does medemer link with the existing Ethiopian political and social structure? And amid ongoing change and volatility, with highly anticipated elections looming, is medemer a path to sustained reform, or merely a political slogan?
During this crucial period of reform and uncertainty in Ethiopia, join USIP and a distinguished panel that includes representatives of the Office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for a look at the questions, possibilities, and problems offered by medemer. Join the conversation with #AChangingEthiopia.
Speakers
Fitsum Arega Gebrekidan, Ambassaador to the U.S., Ethiopia
Lencho Bati, Senior Political, Diplomatic, and Foreign Policy Advisor, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Mamo Mihretu, Senior Adviser on Policy Reforms and Chief Trade Negotiator, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Etana Dinka, Visiting Assistant Professor of African History and Mellon Postdoctoral Fellow, Oberlin College
Aly Verjee (moderator), Senior Advisor, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Stevenson’s army, February 3
– Is Iran active in Afghanistan? Centcom head says yes.
– Is there US gunboat diplomacy in Venezuela ?Looks like it
– Why didn’t Israeli cabinet vote to annex more of West Bank? Looks like US pressure worked.
– Who made State Dept dysfunctional? Kori Schake says Pompeo is only partly to blame.
-Is the political center folding? A GOP consultant was quoted over the weekend as saying, “The only thing in the center of the road is dead possums and yellow lines.” GOP message guru Frank Luntz has more in this WaPo story:
By now, Frank Luntz figured that emotionally exhausted Americans would be hungry for unity, eager to embrace moderate messages and candidates who promised to find and claim common ground.
But Luntz, a longtime Republican consultant who conducts focus groups for news organizations, has been taking the temperatures of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and other states, and he has found that “people are desperate to vote, but the center has collapsed.”
“They want the pitchfork message, not the unity message — on both sides,” he said.
“I wish I was wrong, but that fear of losing the country is deep and very emotional, on both sides,” Luntz added. “The Trump side believes the left is trying to overturn democracy, and they will fight like hell to prevent it. And the Democrats have a disdain for Donald Trump that I’ve never seen. This isn’t as bad as 1968, but it’s pretty damn bad.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 2
– RollCall found an anonymous staffer who writes about daily life on the Hill.
– A foreigner living in Beijing describes life under the coronavirus quarantine.
– FP says Trump has dismantled the interagency system to deal with pandemics.
– WSJ has a tick-tock on the development of the administration’s Mideast plan.
– CNAS says Congress needs to revise its oversight of cybersecurity issues.
I missed Friday’s “miscellany” I think:
– Pompeo calls Chinese Communist Party “central threat of our times.”
– WH says new budget will keep Ukraine aid at current levels.
– House passes measures repealing 2002 AUMF and requiring authorization for war with Iran. Will be vetoed if Senate also approves.
– Lawfare writer says Trump is crippling NSC staff.
– UPenn has released its annual ranking of global thinktanks.
– Afghan Special IG has more bad news about Taliban strength.
– FAS has new paper on low yield nukes.
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