Tag: Israel/Palestine
QED quid pro quo
US Ambassador to the European Union confirmed to the House of Representatives under oath today that he was acting on instructions from President Trump with the knowledge of the National Security Council and the State Department in demanding that Ukraine initiate investigations of former Vice President Biden and his son in exchange for already appropriated military aid. This is corrupt abuse of power: using US government assets to extort and bribe a foreign sovereign into providing assistance to President Trump’s re-election efforts.
Or more simply: it proves that President Trump ordered Sondland to pursue a corrupt purpose.
That this behavior is impeachable is beyond doubt. It is precisely the kind of behavior the US Constitution envisages as justifying not only investigation but also impeachment, followed by trial in the Senate.
There’s the rub. The Senate would have to vote by a two-thirds majority to remove Trump from office. There is no sign yet that the 20 Republicans needed to vote against him are likely to be available.
Any normal president would be chastened by today’s testimony and the impeachment that will follow, even if he were confident of winning the vote in the Senate. That won’t be Trump’s reaction. He will unleash a torrent of attacks against witnesses (especially those who are women), Democrats, and the world for treating him worse than has ever been treated before. This hyperbole feeds Fox News commentary and mobilizes his base, which not only believes what he says but is deaf to factual refutation.
Only when the country starts turning against Trump will the Senate Republicans find their courage. If they conclude they are going down with him, they will shift towards approving his removal from office. There is no evidence yet of that. The White House is doing everything it can to ensure that the shift doesn’t begin, because once it does they fear an avalanche. Senators are being threatened with primary fights and cajoled with every means available.
Meanwhile the nation’s foreign policy is mostly on neglectful autopilot, which may be the best we can hope for. There are no signs of real movement toward US objectives in North Korea, Venezuela, or Iran, all Trump Administration priorities. Russian military operations contrary to US interests continue in Ukraine and in Syria. The trade war with China continues to slow world and US economic growth.
Only on Israel has the Administration moved the ball lately, in the wrong direction: Secretary Pompeo has reversed US policy on West Bank settlements, claiming they are not inconsistent with international law. That is patent nonsense intended to feed another bone to Trump’s evangelical supporters, who like Greater Israel. The Administration has in practice abandoned the two-state solution, setting up the Palestinians either to struggle to restore or to claim equal rights within Greater Israel, where they would constitute a majority. No one who supports Israel should want either of those things to happen.
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Two Americas
I won’t claim to have watched all of this, but some of you may want to see what integrity and dignity look like, since it has not been common in American public life lately:
I would say the same about George Kent* and Bill Taylor’s testimony from earlier in the week:
You don’t really need to watch much to understand that these are honest, sincere, knowledgeable, and capable people committed to serving America’s interests abroad. They respond cautiously but clearly to questions and project a coherent and compelling picture of American foreign policy in Ukraine.
The contrast with Donald Trump and his minions, who lie habitually and don’t hesitate to offer illogical and incoherent arguments, couldn’t be more dramatic. No matter how much the Republicans deny it, it is clear Trump sought to serve his own personal political interests by getting Ukraine to open an investigation of Joe Biden and his son, at the cost of weakening Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. If you can’t see the contrast, it’s time for a talk with your conscience.
The impeachment inquiry is revealing two America’s: one in which unrestrained pursuit of self-interest is paramount and another in which the nation’s interests and values come first. The real charge against Trump is inability even to conceive of the latter as he pursues the former.
But that is not how the indictment will read. More likely it will be something like the following:
- Corrupt abuse of power by trying to bribe Ukraine to open an investigation of a political opponent using military assistance appropriated by Congress.
- Illegally welcoming and accepting assistance from Russia in the 2016 presidential campaign.
- Obstructing justice during the Mueller investigation, intimidating witnesses with threatening tweets, and blocking Congressional oversight by ordering officials not to respond to subpoenas.
These are much more serious charges than against Bill Clinton, who lied to a grand jury about an affair with a White House intern. It is also arguably worse than the charges against Richard Nixon, which concerned a burglary and his attempts to cover up his role in ordering it.
As if to confirm his amorality, Trump yesterday pardoned three American soldiers accused of war crimes, over the objection of the Pentagon. The pardon power is unconstrained, so he will likely use it again in the cases of his seven campaign and administration officials already tried and convicted, including one of his best friends found guilty yesterday on seven criminal charges.
Clinton barely survived the vote in the Senate. Nixon resigned rather than allow that vote to seal his fate. Trump may survive and won’t resign. His only protection from financial and legal ruin is remaining in office. Removing him would require 20 honest Republicans to join with the Senate Democrats in finding him guilty as charged. There is no sign there are that many in the Senate. But if Trump loses a simple majority in the Senate, it would be a clear signal that his prospects in the 2020 election are fading. If ever the Republicans in Congress think they are going down with Trump, they may finally abandon him.
The rest of the world will need patience. The America of Yovanovitch, Packer, and Taylor is down but not out. Everywhere I go these days–mainly to talk with people from the Balkans, the European Union, and the Middle East–colleagues are longing for an America committed to democracy, human rights, integrity, and accountability. They can hardly believe it no longer exists in the White House. It does however exist and will return to power, I hope sooner rather than later.
*Apologies: I originally had “Packer” here. I’m reading that George’s bio of Holbrooke, so I plead crossed synapses.
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Peace Picks November 10-16
Beirut 1958: How America’s Wars in the Middle East Began|November 13, 2019|10:00AM-11:30AM|Brookings Institution|Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, 20036|Register Here
On July 15, 1958, U.S. Marines assaulted the beach in Beirut, Lebanon. The amphibious attack was the first combat operation in the Middle East by American troops. It followed months of intrigue, espionage and conspiracy leading to a bloody coup in Baghdad, Iraq the day before the Marines landed. Now more than 60 years later, the United States is engaged in multiple combat operations across the region — seemingly endless wars.
In his new book, “Beirut 1958,” Senior Fellow Bruce Riedel tells the story of the mission and draws lessons on how to better deal with future challenges in the region. Please join the Center for Middle East Policy on Wednesday, November 13 for the launch of “Beirut 1958,” featuring a discussion with Riedel, moderated by Senior Fellow Suzanne Maloney. Following the discussion, the participants will take questions from the audience.
The Middle East in 2020 – What Are the Pathways to Stability?|November 13, 2019|9:30AM-4:00PM|Middle East Institute|JW Marriott Washington DC|1331 Pennsylvania Ave NW|Washington DC 20004|Register Here
The conference will feature a series of panels, one-on-one conversations, and a debate examining key priorities for reducing threats and building long-term stability in the MENA region given rising tensions and an increasingly unpredictable environment.
9:00-9:30am | Arrival and Registration
9:30-9:35am | Welcome Remarks
Paul Salem
President, MEI
9:40-10:00am | Keynote Address: General (ret.) Joseph Votel on U.S. Middle East Priorities
10:00-11:00am | Panel: Are there Pathways to De-escalation in the Middle East?
H.E. Mohammed Baharoon
Director General, b’huth
LTG. (ret.) Michael Nagata
Former director of Strategic Operational Planning, National Counterterrorism Center; Hanada Bridge, LLC
Randa Slim
Senior fellow and director, conflict resolution and Track II Dialogues, MEI
Gonul Tol
Director, Turkish studies, MEI
Muna Shikaki, moderator
Correspondent, Al Arabiya
11:00am-11:15am | Coffee Break
11:15am-11:45am | Debate: How Will the Next Administration Confront Challenges and Meet Opportunities in the Middle East?
The Honorable Jim Moran
Former member of Congress, Virginia’s 8th Congressional District
Michael Pregent
Senior fellow, Hudson Institute
Randa Slim, moderator
Senior fellow and director, conflict resolution and Track II Dialogues, MEI
11:50am-12:20pm | Panel: How Can MENA Countries Reduce the Threat of Cyber Attacks?
Steph Shample
Senior analyst, Flashpoint
Edwin Wilson
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Security
Richard A. Clarke, moderator
Chairman, Board of Governors, MEI
12:20-1:00pm | Lunch buffet
1:00-1:50pm | Panel: How is the Middle East Engaging with the Broader World?
H.E. David Bakradze
Ambassador of the Republic of Georgia to the United States
Intissar Fakir
Fellow, Middle East program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Deborah Lehr
Vice Chairman and Executive Director, Paulson Institute
Aparna Pande
Director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia, Hudson Institute
David Lawler, moderator
Editor, Axios World Stream
1:55-2:45pm | Panel: What are the Key Economic Challenges Facing the Middle East in 2020?
Jihad Azour
Director, Middle East and Central Asia, International Monetary Fund
Herman Franssen
Scholar, MEI
Habib Kairouz
Managing partner, Rho Partners
Delila Khaled
Senior advisor, Laurel Strategies
Adva Saldinger, moderator
Associate editor, Devex
2:45-3:00pm | Coffee Break
3:00pm-3:50pm | Panel: How are Arab Youth Innovating and Mobilizing for Change?
Sami Hourani
Founder and CEO, Forsa for Education
Joyce Karam
Corresponent, The National UAE
Shady Khalil
Managing partner, Greenish
Yasmeen Mjalli
Founder, BabyFist
Dina Sherif, moderator
Founder and CEO, Ahead of the Curve
4:00pm | Closing Remarks
2019 Czech and Slovak Freedom Lecture: 30 Years of Czech and Slovak Freedom|November 13, 2019|12:00PM-1:30PM|Woodrow Wilson Center|6th Floor, Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC 20004|Register Here
This year‘s Freedom Lecture is co-hosted by the Embassy of the Czech Republic and the Embassy of the Slovak Republic. Both a Czech and a Slovak speaker are featured in order to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution, which saw the return of freedom and democracy to both countries on November 17, 1989.
Speakers
Introduction
- Ivan Korčok Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Slovak Republic to the United States
- Hynek Kmoníček Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Czech Republic to the United States
Keynote
- Katarína Cséfalvayová Chairwoman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, National Council of the Slovak Republic
- Simon Pánek Former Czech student activist during the Velvet Revolution in 1989; Executive Director and Co-Founder of the largest Czech humanitarian organization, People in Need
Moderator
- Blair A. Ruble Distinguished FellowFormer Wilson Center Vice President for Programs (2014-2017); Director of the Comparative Urban Studies Program/Urban Sustainability Laboratory (1992-2017); Director of the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies (1989-2012) and Director of the Program on Global Sustainability and Resilience (2012-2014)
Understanding the New Wave of Arab Protests: An Expert Panel|November 14, 2019|10:30AM-12:00PM|Woodrow Wilson Center|6th Floor, Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC 20004|Register Here
A new series of protests and demonstrations has erupted across the Middle East and North Africa over the past 9 months. In Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, Algeria, Jordan, and Egypt, these protests were largely triggered by dire socio-economic conditions, corruption and a sense of economic and political disenfranchisement with outright calls for regime change in the case of Algeria, Sudan, and very recently in Lebanon.
Join our discussion with a panel of Wilson and regional experts to analyze these events and understand difference and similarities between the present wave of protests and those that erupted in 2011.
Speakers
Introduction
- Merissa Khurma Project Manager, Middle East Special Initiatives
Moderator
- David Ottaway Middle East FellowMiddle East Specialist and Former Washington Post Correspondent
Panelists
- Rend Al-Rahim Co-founder and President of the Iraq Foundation
- Marina Ottaway Middle East Fellow and Former Senior Research Associate and Head of the Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Hussain Abdul-Hussain Washington Bureau Chief, Al Rai Newspaper
Protests in Chile: The Path Forward|November 14, 2019|12:00PM-1:00PM|Woodrow Wilson Center|6th Floor, Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC 20004|Register Here
Since mid-October, Chile has been rocked by massive protests—some marked by extreme violence, but the vast majority of them peaceful and historic in numbers. Triggered by an increase in subway fares, the protests have laid bare deep inequalities and frustration over unmet needs in one of Latin America’s most prosperous countries. The government of President Sebastián Piñera has called for a dialogue with opposition parties over measures to address the crisis. Talks are ongoing.
Please join us for a discussion with noted Chilean experts over the underlying causes of unrest and, just as important, the path forward. Will the dialogue between the government and the opposition parties be successful? What reforms are on the table? Are there grounds for consensus, and if so, over what? How quickly will the legislature respond to measures introduced by the government or the opposition? How best can constitutional issues be addressed? How will the government address future challenges to public order in the midst of widespread criticism over human rights abuses committed by government forces?
Speakers
Moderator
- Cynthia J. Arnson Director, Latin American Program
Speakers
- Felipe Agüero FellowAssociate Professor, Department of International Studies, University of Miami
- Lucía Dammert Global FellowAssociate Professor, Universidad de Santiago de Chile; Expert on public security issues in Latin America
A Conversation with First Lady of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Rula Ghani: How to Protect Afghan Women’s Rights and Build Consensus for Peace|November 14, 2019|10:00AM-11:30AM|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington DC 20037|Register Here
To explore the importance of Afghan women in building a sustainable peace process, H.E. First Lady Rula Ghani will join USIP for a timely discussion on her role in the Afghan Women’s National Consensus for Peace (Ejma-e-Mili), as well as other current events on peace, security, and governance in Afghanistan. Following a keynote address by the First Lady, there will be a moderated question and answer session.
Speakers
H.E Rula Ghani
First Lady of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Nancy Lindborg, moderator
President and CEO, U.S Institute of Peace
Ending Endless War: Lessons from the Counter-ISIS War|November 15, 2019|12:15PM-1:45PM|New America|740 15th St NW #900, Washington DC 20005|Register Here
In December 2011, the last American combat troops left Iraq. The Obama administration celebrated the withdrawal as the completion of a campaign promise to end the Iraq war. Fewer than three years later, the same administration returned the U.S. to war in Iraq to fight ISIS and then extended the war into Syria. In his new report, Decisionmaking in the Counter-ISIS War, New America Senior Policy Analyst David Sterman examines how the United States returned to war in Iraq, the role of preventive war logic in that decision, and what lessons the counter-ISIS war holds for efforts to end America’s seemingly endless counter-terrorism wars.
To discuss the report, New America welcomes Dr. Joshua Geltzer, a New America International Security program fellow and former senior director for counter-terrorism at the National Security Council, and Dr. Alexandra Stark, senior researcher with New America’s Political Reform program. Dr. Stark holds a PhD from the government department at Georgetown University. She was previously a research fellow at the Middle East Initiative of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and Minerva/Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the United States Institute of Peace.
Participants:
David Sterman, @Dsterms
Author, Decisionmaking in the Counter-ISIS War
Senior Policy Analyst, New America International Security program
Dr. Joshua Geltzer, @jgeltzer
Fellow, New America International Security program
Former Senior Director for Counter-Terrorism, National Security Council
Dr. Alexandra Stark
Senior Researcher, New America Political Reform program
Moderator:
Melissa Salyk-Virk
Senior Policy Analyst, New America International Security program
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Stevenson’s army October 31
- It’s not just Latin America. Protests are also widespread now in the Arab world.
- Lawfare summarizes recent hearings on Syria and Turkey.
- Slate details DOD/OMB fight over Ukraine money, which Congress rescued with a surprise bill.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks October 28-November 3
Africa in Transition: The Role of Women in Peace and Security|October 29, 2019|9:30am-11:30am|Wilson Center|1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004 |Register Here
The prosperity of a nation cannot be divorced from the prosperity of its women. In sub-Saharan Africa, demographic trends, including rapid population growth and urbanization, ethnic tensions, and environmental degradation and climate change represent some of the compound security risks facing the region. A multisector and integrated approach that is inclusive of women is a precondition to curbing the underlying trends influencing instability in the region. When women are involved in security decision-making, the likelihood for conflict decreases, and peace negotiations last longer.
Please join the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program and Maternal Health Initiative, in partnership with The Population Institute, to discuss holistic approaches to complex security challenges in sub-Saharan Africa at the third public event in our three-part series, Africa in Transition.
Speakers
Moderator: Monde Muyangwa, Africa Program Director
Ambassador (ret.) Phillip Carter III, President, Mead Hill Group, LLC; former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea
Chantal de Jonge Oudraat , President, Women in International Security (WIIS)
Alex Ezeh, Professor of Global Health, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University
Elizabeth Leahy Madsen,Senior Program Director, International Programs, Population Reference Bureau
Israel’s Tightening Control of East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza|October 30, 2019|12:30pm-2:00pm|Middle East Institute|1763 N St. NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036|Register Here
While some corners of Washington and the international community are waking up to the reality of Israel’s de facto annexation of Palestinian land in the West Bank and recurrent crisis in Gaza, few policymakers understand how the policies that have created this brutal and often tedious reality look like on the ground. This panel of seasoned Israeli experts will untangle the mess of occupation and annexation facing Palestinians living in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, as well as the decisions required to address Gaza’s chronic problems.
This event is part of the George and Rhonda Salem Family Foundation Lecture Series.
Participant Biographies
Avner Gvaryahu is the Executive Director of Breaking the Silence as well as an M.A. candidate in the Institute for the Study of Human Rights at Columbia.
Daniel Seidemann is a practicing attorney in Jerusalem who specializes in legal and public issues in East Jerusalem.
Celine Touboul is the Co-Director General of the Economic Cooperation Foundation (ECF), an Israeli policy planning think-tank designing and advancing initiatives aimed at creating the conditions for the resumption of a genuine Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the realization of a viable two state-solution.
Dr. Bashar Azzeh (moderator) is a Member of the PLO Palestine National Council, PLO Center Council, PPSF Party international secretary and Advisor to the PLO.
Recent Trends in Democracy and Development in the Emerging World|October 31, 2019|10:00am-11:30am|Brookings Institution|Saul/Zilkha Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC 20036|Register Here
By the end of 2019, more people will have cast a vote than ever before. Nearly 2 billion voters in 50 countries around the world will have headed to the polls to elect their leaders. At the same time, data show that citizens’ trust in governments is weak and political polarization is growing almost everywhere. Many are feeling left behind and find it hard to coexist with people who have different views. Social networks and echo chambers amplify this mistrust. Simultaneously, the world is getting richer, with just over half of the global population now middle class or wealthier. Many countries, ranging from autocracies to liberal democracies, are struggling to form political platforms that can satisfy a broad middle-class majority.
On October 31, the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings and the Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC) from Argentina will co-host an event to assess democratic trends in the developing world and tease out implications for growth and development, drawing from recent electoral results in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia. The event will kick off with a brief presentation on global attitudes toward democracy by the Pew Research Center. A moderated panel with regional experts will follow.
Speakers
Homi Kharas (Welcome Remarks): Interim Vice President and Director, Global Economy and Development
Richard Wike: Director of Global Attitudes Research, Pew Research Center
Julia Pomares: Executive Director, Centre for the Implementation of Public Policy for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Landry Signé: David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Africa Growth Initiative
Irfan Nooruddin: Professor, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Richard Wike (Moderator): Director of Global Attitudes Research, Pew Research Center
Iran Hostage Crisis 40th Anniversary Panel Discussion|October 31, 2019|10:30am-12:00pm|Wilson Center|1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004 |Register Here
On November 4, 1979, a crowd of Iranian students charged into the US embassy in Tehran and took hostage 52 American diplomats and citizens. The resulting diplomatic standoff would last 444 days. Now, 40 years later, the Iran Hostage Crisis continues to loom as one of the defining moments in US-Iran relations. To mark the anniversary of this crucial event, a panel of US-Iran relations experts meet to discuss how the Crisis is viewed today and how it continues to play a role in US foreign policy.
The panel will be moderated by Haleh Esfandiari, former director and founder of the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program.
Dr. Esfandiari will be joined on the panel by:
Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow and Director of The Intelligence Project at the Brookings Institute.
Suzanne Maloney, Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy Program and Senior Fellow at the Center for Middle East Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institute.
John Limbert, retired US Diplomat and Distinguished Professor of International Affairs at the US Naval Academy. Ambassador Limbert was stationed in the US embassy in Iran in 1979 and was one of the diplomats held hostage, for which he received the Award of Valor.
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More diplomacy, less force
A friend asked today what I thought of the current situation in Syria. I responded:
Predictable and predicted. The Syria commitment was not sustainable. The US needs to reduce its commitments to the Middle East to a level that serves vital interests and is sustainable. It should do that carefully, using diplomacy to ensure no vacuums are left. That can’t happen with this President.
I guess that puts me at least partly in Elizabeth Warren’s camp and opposed to Josh Rogin, who is a fine journalist but far more of an enthusiast for US engagement in the Middle East than I am.
Let me recount the reasons:
- The US is far less dependent on oil, including oil from the Middle East, than once it was.
- The spread of US unconventional production technology has made it difficult for oil prices to top $60/barrel for long. That is a price the US and world economy can and does tolerate easily.
- Other countries should, as Presidents Trump and Obama have suggested, bear more of the burden of protecting Middle East oil supplies, in particular the Chinese, Japanese, and South Koreans since they take most of the oil coming through the strait of Hormuz.
- Middle East producers should be doing more to build pipelines that circumvent Hormuz, and consumers (especially India and China) should be building strategic oil stocks for use in a supply disruption.
- American allies in the Middle East should, after many billions in US arms sales, mainly protect themselves. Israel does already. The Saudis and Emiratis as well as the Qataris should too. Needless to say, the Turks will have to after this latest brush with the US.
- Many American bases in the Middle East are too close to Iran to serve well in wartime. They will need to be evacuated if the balloon ever goes up. Better to get them out sooner rather than later.
- If you are still worried about Middle East terrorism, there is no reason to believe that the drone wars have done anything to reduce it. To the contrary, US presence in the region makes us a prime target.
- The right answer to terrorism is better governance, not drones. Find the people who are serious about improved governance and support them, not the thieves and oppressors who rule in much of the Middle East.
- If you want to counter Russian influence in the Middle East, clearly an unsustainable military presence is not the solution. Syria is going to be a big burden on Moscow. Let them deal with it.
- If you are worried about Iran, get back into the nuclear deal (aka JCPOA) as quickly as possible and try to negotiate an extension. The only serious complaint I am hearing from anyone about the JCPOA is that it expires.
The American drawdown from the Middle East should not be precipitous. It should be cautious and leave no power vacuums. That is what diplomacy is for: we need to be working on regional security arrangements that can guarantee that no one’s interests will be ignored and reasonable compromises will prevail. That effort will require serious attention to threat perceptions, regional trade and infrastructure, people-to-people relations, and traditional conflict management mechanisms in the region. Yes, more diplomacy, less force, and a lot of hard work and commonsense.
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