peacefare.net

Slo-mo train wreck

I’ve been hesitating to comment on the “Middle East peace process,” but I guess there comes a point at which you can’t ignore it any longer.  When even President Obama has turned gloomy, you’ve got to wonder whether the time has come.  So here goes:

Leverage in negotiations comes from having “BATNA”:  a best alternative to a negotiated solution.  The Israelis have one:  they just keep on building settlements in the West Bank.  The Ramallah Palestinians don’t really have one:  Mahmoud Abbas doesn’t want to go back to the Intifada, and there is really nothing he can do to block the settlements.  Hamas is trying out a new BATNA, as its last one (rockets into Israeli population centers) did not work so well.  It is lying (relatively) low, figuring time is on its side.

The Israelis have got a BATNA, but what Netanyahu lacks is the ability to deliver Israel to a negotiated solution.  His government is fractious, and he sees no need to take the political risks a negotiated solution would necessarily entail.  Of course Mahmoud Abbas has a similar problem, only his government is just plain broken, since he doesn’t control what Hamas does or does not do.  So neither side can deliver its own people to a negotiated peace.

Continuing to build Jewish settlements in the West Bank is making it hard to picture a viable two-state solution.  Netanyahu says he wants the Arabs to accept Israel as a Jewish state, but his pursuit of his BATNA is putting the country into a demographic trap:  the more settlements he builds, the harder it gets to picture a viable Palestinian state, which is an indispensable component of a two-state solution, and the more likely it gets that Israel/Palestine will end up as a single state, which eventually won’t have a Jewish majority.

So Israel and Palestine are careening towards an outcome neither wants, with leadership on the Israeli side that doesn’t want to take the risks required to prevent it and leadership on the Palestinian side that lacks any means to prevent it.  Slo-mo train wreck.

Kerry still running

Even for the chair of Senate Foreign Relations, this is an unusually frenetic trip to important places.

The envoy: Kerry in Turkey, Israel, West Bank – Laura Rozen – POLITICO.com.