Tag: Morocco
A decent Syrian election: result, not prelude
Jimmy Carter and Robert Pastor propose an election to resolve Syria’s civil war. They suggest three principles that would have to be accepted as preconditions for negotiating the war’s end:
● Self-determination: The Syrian people should decide on the country’s future government in a free election process under the unrestricted supervision of the international community and responsible nongovernmental organizations, with the results accepted if the elections are judged free and fair;
● Respect: The victors should assure and guarantee respect for all sectarian and minority groups; and
● Peacekeepers: To ensure that the first two goals are achieved, the international community must guarantee a robust peacekeeping force.
And they spell out first steps: Read more
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Peace picks, October 7-11
A wide array of interesting events this week (be aware of possible event cancellations due to the government shutdown):
1. A New Look at American Foreign Policy: The Third in a Series of Discussions
Monday October 7 | 12:00pm – 1:00pm
The Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NW
For decades, libertarians and conservatives have been at odds over American foreign policy. But perhaps a conversation is possible today between classical liberals and conservatives on the nature of American foreign policy. Some are trying to find a “middle way” that is less doctrinaire. At the same time the “neo” conservative phase of hyper military interventionism is a spent force in conservative circles. Therefore, the time may be ripe for an open and honest conversation among some libertarians and conservatives about the future of American foreign policy. It may be possible a new consensus could be found between Americans who consider themselves classical liberals and traditional conservatives on the purposes of American foreign policy.
Join us as Heritage continues the discussion regarding this question, what the dangers and opportunities are and whether they afford an opportunity to take a “new look” at American foreign policy.
For decades, libertarians and conservatives have been at odds over American foreign policy. But perhaps a conversation is possible today between classical liberals and conservatives on the nature of American foreign policy. Some are trying to find a “middle way” that is less doctrinaire. At the same time the “neo” conservative phase of hyper military interventionism is a spent force in conservative circles. Therefore, the time may be ripe for an open and honest conversation among some libertarians and conservatives about the future of American foreign policy. It may be possible a new consensus could be found between Americans who consider themselves classical liberals and traditional conservatives on the purposes of American foreign policy.
Join us as Heritage continues the discussion regarding this question, what the dangers and opportunities are and whether they afford an opportunity to take a “new look” at American foreign policy.
More About the Speakers
Kim R. Holmes, Ph.D.
Distinguished Fellow, The Heritage Foundation
Randy E. Barnett
Carmack Waterhouse Professor of Legal Theory, Georgetown University Law Center
Marion Smith
Visiting Fellow, B. Kenneth Simon Center for Principles and Politics, The Heritage Foundation
Hosted By
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Solid kernels in a not so good idea
My SAIS colleague Ed Joseph and Aaron David Miller earlier this week put forward a proposal for a Union of Arab Democracies that merits examination despite its deep and fatal flaws. There are nuggets therein worth preserving.
The idea in their words is this:
Egypt and its fractious neighbors desperately need a unifying vision that can inculcate respect for democratic norms across glaring differences. Although Arab nations have no interest in joining the European Union or NATO, the Arab world can draw on the model of Eastern European transition, with fledgling Arab democracies devising their own supra-national organization dedicated to advancing democracy. Like the E.U. in its infancy, this Union of Arab Democracies (UAD) could start with limited objectives and evolve toward ambitious goals, including, ultimately, pan-Arab political union.
Waving their magic wand, Ed and Aaron then tell us all the good things that would happen if such an organization were to come into existence, despite the shambolic history of pan-Arab political union proposals.
If Egypt and the other Arab uprising countries were capable of creating such an organization, they wouldn’t need it. The weakness of the proposal is all too apparent when Ed and Aaron get to proposing that Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority (known to me as Palestine) would be the leading democracies, with transitioning countries (Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen) and supposedly “liberalizing” countries (Morocco, Jordan and possibly Oman) tagging along. What a democratic club! Several are more likely to find themselves joining an Islamic union than a democratic one.
Nevertheless, there is a core idea here that is important: transitions need a destination. When the Berlin wall fell, the former Soviet satellites of eastern Europe and the Baltic “captive nations” quickly set their aim on meeting European Union and NATO standards. This gave direction and impetus to countries that would otherwise have wandered as aimlessly as the North African revolutions are doing today.
The way to answer the question “transition to what?” is not to have nascent Arab democracies try to figure it out for themselves. They cannot reasonably aim for membership in NATO or the EU, but they should be able to aim at two easier targets: the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe or, as my Turkish colleague Aylin Unver Noi suggests, the Council of Europe.
OSCE comprises 57 states and plays an important role in the Balkans and the more Asian parts of Eurasia. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia are already among its “cooperating partners.” Several OSCE members are no farther along in democratizing than their Middle Eastern partners. With 47 member states, the Council of Europe regards itself as the continent’s leading human rights organization. It has a human rights court with some real enforcement capacity that could provide minorities in the Middle East with real recourse if their mother countries were to join.
The idea of extending OSCE and the Council of Europe to the southern littoral of the Mediterranean may seem far fetched, but efforts to construct more ad hoc arrangements have not worked well. Neither the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership nor the Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative gained much traction before 2011, Aylin says, and their relevance will be further reduced by the Arab uprisings.
Another of the world’s more restrictive clubs, the rich people’s Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , has opened its doors to newly developed states like Korea and Mexico, much to their benefit and the benefit of the organization. Opening the OSCE and Council of Europe to new Middle Eastern members, who would need to meet clearly defined criteria in order to get in, would be a worthwhile experiment. It would give the Arab uprisings, if they want it, a destination as well as a tough-minded qualification process, which is really what Ed and Aaron were calling for.
So “no” to the Arab Democratic Union. “Yes” to Arab democracy that aims to meet the not too exacting standards of the OSCE and respects human rights as defined by the Council of Europe.
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“Il potere logora chi non ce l’ha”
As I am about to risk denunciation for drawing unreasonable parallels, let me state up front that Turkey is not Egypt, Egypt is not Libya, Libya is not Tunisia, Tunisia is not Syria, Syria is not Yemen, Yemen is not Morocco or Kuwait. If there is one thing we’ve learned from the Arab awakenings, it is that each finds its own course within a particular historical and cultural tradition. Distinct political, economic, social and religious conditions are like the soil and rocks through which a river finds its way to the sea. It is difficult to predict the water’s course as gravity pulls it in the inevitable direction.
That said, it seems to me we are seeing in the Middle East a common factor, perhaps a bit like the granite that forces water to find another difficult-to-predict direction. That common factor is the difficulty all of the “democratically elected” leaders are having in adjusting to politics with an opposition. Tunisia is struggling with a Salafist opposition that is stronger than many expected. Islamist militias in Libya have forced its parliament into a harder line on purging Qaddafi-era officials than its leadership found comfortable. Egypt is facing a summer of discontent as President Morsi runs into criticism and street demonstrations by his erstwhile non-Islamist allies.
Now it is Turkey’s turn, where protest against destruction of a park in Taksim square has turned into a much broader challenge because of overreaction from the security forces and Prime Minister Erdogan’s arrogant response. Now the theme is “everywhere is Taksim, resistance is everywhere.” I hardly need mention that in Syria Asad and his security forces managed by overreaction to turn a few teenage graffiti artists into a civil war.
Despite the differences in context, there is a common theme here: the inability of rulers, even democratically elected ones, to govern in an inclusive way that provides opposition with a legitimate role. The flip side of the coin is the inability of opposition forces to figure out how to influence those who govern them without resorting to violence, disruption and rebellion. There is an exception to the rule, but a limited one. Yemen, of all places, is proceeding with a national dialogue that appears for the moment serious, though it has failed to include the southern secessionists and may eventually fail on that score.
Widening our aperture a bit, I would submit that we are seeing something similar in Iraq, where Prime Minister Maliki has managed to keep a few Sunni elites in the tent but seems to have driven large numbers in Anbar and Ninewa into an increasingly disruptive opposition that extremists are exploiting to challenge the security forces and may lead to further division of the state. In Bahrain, the monarchy and its opposition have driven each other into mutual polarization. Only in Morocco, where the king has tried to get ahead of the reform curve, and in Kuwait, where parliament plays a modestly more serious role than in most other Arab monarchies, have we seen the opposition developing as a possible alternative governing elite: loyal but with its own program and leadership cadres.
So the common problem I see is the failure to develop in many places an opposition that is serious about presenting a governing alternative. In dictatorships of course the regimes don’t want such a thing to happen and do everything they can to prevent it. But even in newish democracies that instinct remains. And opposition behavior all too often confirms that there is no viable alternative, or that there are many, no one of which has enough political omph to merit gaining power in a relatively free and fair election. Knowing this, fragmented oppositions do little to gain credibility as governing forces but focus instead on gaining adherents and influence through street demonstrations.
It will take time to get past this stage of things. Maybe a decade. It is not easy to turn a street movement, even a successful one, into a political force with real governing potential. In Giulio Andreotti’s immortal words, “il potere logora chi non ce l’ha.” Power wears out those who haven’t got it.
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Peace Picks, May 20-24th
A busy week with the Hill active and the Sahel attracting more attention than usual:
1. Jihad and Politics in North Africa, Monday, May 20 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm , New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Eamonn Gearon, Peter Bergen
French intervention in Mali earlier this year quickly dislodged insurgents from their strongholds in the northern part of the country, but even before victory had been secured, Paris began making moves to bring its troops home. Most of the 4,000 French troops sent to Mali remain there today, but they plan to hand over security operations to a UN-mandated African force in the coming weeks. With continued unrest and regular attacks by insurgents, any withdrawal at this stage leaves northern Mali vulnerable to becoming a safe haven again for al-Qaeda and others.
The war in Mali is not merely fallout from the Arab Spring. Rather, it is a complex but not insoluble set of issues, with local roots and regional implications. A successful outcome in Mali is possible, but the solution requires Bamako to be inclusive and the West to be realistic by acknowledging that what is happening in Mali is about more than terrorism. The New America Foundation is pleased to welcome Middle East expert Eamonn Gearon for a discussion about the drivers of conflict in Mali and what the international community should do to manage them.
Register for the event here:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/jihad_and_politics_north_africa
2. The Call for Economic Liberty in the Arab World, Tuesday, May 21 / 9:30am , U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
2172 House Rayburn Office Building
SPEAKERS: Hernando de Soto, Madeleine K. Albright
Witnesses:
Mr. Hernando de Soto, President
Institute for Liberty and Democracy
The Honorable Madeleine K. Albright, Chairman
Albright Stonebridge Group
For more information, click here:
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/hearing-call-economic-liberty-arab-world
3. Bahrain: A Conversation About Its Challenges and Opportunities, Tuesday, May 21 / 10:00am – 12:00pm, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
B-308
SPEAKERs: Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann, Professor David Des Roches, Ms. Sarah Leah Whitson, Professor Paul Sullivan, Dr. John Duke Anthony
On May 21, 2013, the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations and the U.S.-GCC Corporate Cooperation Committee are hosting a public affairs briefing on “Bahrain: A Conversation About Its Challenges and Opportunities” featuring Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann, President, American Academy of Diplomacy and former U.S. Ambassador to Bahrain, Afghanistan, and Algeria; Professor David Des Roches, Senior Military Fellow, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University; Ms. Sarah Leah Whitson, Executive Director, Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; and Professor Paul Sullivan, Professor of Economics, National Defense University and Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University. Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President & CEO, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, will serve as moderator.
Register for the event here:
4. Conceptualizing A New US Pakistan Relationship by Ambassador Touqir Hussain, Tuesday, May 21 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, Rumi Forum
Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Touqir Hussain
Ambassador Touqir Hussain is a former senior diplomat from Pakistan, having served as Ambassador to Brazil, Spain and Japan (1998 – 2003). Ambassador Hussain held senior positions in the Pakistani Foreign Office, including that of Additional Foreign Secretary heading the bureaus of the Middle East and of the Americas and Europe.
From 1996 to 1998, Ambassador Hussain was the Diplomatic Adviser to the Prime Minister where he had an opportunity to work with a range of foreign policy issues at the highest policy levels.
Ambassador Touqir Hussain moved to the United States in 2003. Since then he has been pursuing an academic career. He was a Senior Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace( 2004-2005) and Research Fellow at the Center for the Study of Globalization George Washington University ( 2006-2010). Currently he is the Senior Pakistan Visiting Fellow at SAIS Johns Hopkins University and Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University and the Syracuse University ( Washington DC campus).Earlier he had also taught at the University of Virginia Charlottesville.
Ambassador Hussain’s overall specialization is South Asian security issues, the Kashmir dispute, U.S Pakistan relations, civil military relations, democracy in the Islamic world, political Islam, terrorism, and US relations with the Islamic world. Ambassador Hussain has written nearly thirty op-ed pieces for US and Pakistani newspapers on some of these issues.
Ambassador Hussain has been a guest speaker at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville; American University, Washington DC; The George Washington University, Washington DC; Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond; the Defense Institute of Security Assistance Management, Dayton, Ohio; The National Defense University, Washington DC; The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA; and the World Affairs Council, Peoria, IL.
More information here:
http://www.rumiforum.org/upcoming-events/qconceptualizing-a-new-us-pakistan-relationshipq-ambassador-touqir-hussain.html
5. The Growing Crisis in Africa’s Sahel Region, Tuesday, May 21 / 2:00pm, U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
2172 House Rayburn Office Building
SPEAKERS: Donald Y. Yamamoto, Nancy E. Lindborg, Rudolph Atallah, Mima S. Nedelcovych
Witnesses:
Panel I
The Honorable Donald Y. Yamamoto, Acting Assistant Secretary of State
Bureau of African Affairs
U.S. Department of State
The Honorable Nancy E. Lindborg
Assistant Administrator
Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance
U.S. Agency for International Development
Panel II
Mr. Rudolph Atallah, Senior Fellow
Michael S. Ansari Africa Center
Atlantic Council
Mima S. Nedelcovych, Ph.D., Partner
Schaffer Global Group
More information here:
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-growing-crisis-africas-sahel-region
6. Prospect for Afghanistan’s 2014 Elections, Tuesday, May 21 / 2:45pm, U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Venue: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Constitution Avenue and 1st Street, NE, Washington, DC
Room 419
SPEAKERS: Mr. David Pearce, Dr. Andrew Wilder, Ms. Sarah Chayes
More information here:
http://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/prospect-for-afghanistans-2014-elections
7. How Arab Public Opinion Is Reshaping the Middle East, Tuesday, May 21 / 3:00pm – 4:30pm, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Falk Auditorium
SPEAKERS: Martin S. Indyk, Shibley Telhami, Kim Ghattas
The Arab awakening that began in 2011 is transforming the Middle East in ways that continue to surprise seasoned observers. As new political leaders and movements struggle for power and work to shape the region’s future, one thing is clear: public opinion is more consequential now than it has arguably ever been. How Arabs view themselves and the world around them will have enormous consequences for the region and the larger international community in the years ahead. How are changes in Arab public opinion shaping the changes occurring across the region? Have the U.S. and its allies done enough to understand and support the voices of Arabs seeking greater representation and opportunity?
On May 21, the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World, as part of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, will host the launch of The World Through Arab Eyes: Arab Public Opinion and the Reshaping of the Middle East (Basic Books, 2013), the latest book by Nonresident Senior Fellow Shibley Telhami. Kim Ghattas, BBC’s State Department correspondent, will engage Dr. Telhami in a discussion of the book and the issues it raises. Martin Indyk, vice president and director of Foreign Policy at Brookings, will provide introductory remarks.
Register for the event here:
http://www.brookings.edu/events/2013/05/21-arab-public-opinion?rssid=UpcomingEvents&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopfeeds%2FUpcomingEvents+%28Brookings+Upcoming+Events%29
7. Seeking Wisdom Beyond Our Comfort Zone: How Assumptions About “The Other” Limit Growth, Tuesday, May 21 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm, Rumi Forum
Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Eileen Gale Kugler
Each day we make judgments in our business and personal lives about the value of others. We don’t make these decisions in a pristine vacuum, but rather based on our own experiences and influences. Our complex individual culture—an interconnected web of factors ranging from our religion, race and ethnicity to where we grew up, our family structure and our gender role—is the prism through which we view the capabilities of others. These assumptions, whether conscious or unconscious, limit our own growth, as well the growth of other people. To break through these biases, we each need to be conscious of them and reflect on the origins of our attitudes about “the other.” When we move beyond our own prism and seek wisdom from everyone we come in contact with, no matter their background or status, we grow —and so do our organizations and society at large.
Eileen Gale Kugler is a global speaker and consultant on the unique benefits that diversity brings to schools, communities and worksites —and strategies to strengthen them. She is author of the award-winning Debunking the Middle Class Myth: Why Diverse Schools are Good for All Kids and executive editor of the new Innovative Voices in Education: Engaging Diverse Communities. Eileen’s articles and commentaries appear in wide-ranging publications, including USA Today and the Washington Post, Educational Leadership, and Education Week. Eileen’s work is informed by her continuing on-the-ground involvement, including an active volunteer life. Her family’s volunteer commitment at a South African school, including creating a 23,000-book library, was featured in The Washington Post and Voice of America TV.
More information here:
http://www.rumiforum.org/upcoming-events/seeking-wisdom-beyond-our-comfort-zone-how-assumptions-about-the-other-limit-growth-eileen-gale-kugler.html
8. Perilous Desert: Security Challenges in the Sahara and Sahel, Wednesday, May 22 / 9:00am – 5:00pm, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Anouar Boukhars, Frederic Wehrey, Marwan Muasher
While the world’s attention was fixed on the momentous events in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya after the outbreak of the Arab Awakening, the desert states to the south were undergoing their own transformations with major global implications. Long overlooked by policymakers and scholars, the broader Sahara region has always possessed an underappreciated geopolitical significance. And changes should not be ignored. To explore regional sources of instability and what can be done to minimize the threat of simmering conflicts, Carnegie will gather top experts from the United States, Europe, and the region at an all-day conference to mark the launch of the new book Perilous Desert: Insecurity in the Sahara. Copies will be available for purchase.
Register for the event here:
http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/05/22/book-launch-perilous-desert-insecurity-in-sahara/g005
9. Syria‘s Humanitarian Crisis: A Briefing by Marianne Gasser, Wednesday, May 22 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Marianne Gasser
Marianne Gasser, outgoing Head of the Delegation for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Syria, will discuss Syria’s humanitarian crisis.
More than two years after the onset of the conflict in Syria, the humanitarian toll continues to grow. With estimates of 4 million Syrians displaced internally, and another 1.2 million seeking refuge in neighboring countries, the impact on civilians continues.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/syria%E2%80%99s-humanitarian-crisis-briefing-marianne-gasser
10. Two States, One Country, Israel-Palestine: A Path Towards a Shared Future, Wednesday, May 22 / 2:00pm – 4:30pm, Universal Peace Federation
Venue: 3600 New York Ave., NE, Washington, DC 20002
The Green Room
SPEAKERS: Kamal Awash, Dr. Andrew Wilson
Our co-moderators will be Kamal Nawash, Esq., President, Free Muslims Coalition, and Dr. Andrew Wilson, Academic Dean and Professor of Biblical Studies at the Unification Theological Seminary.
More than 20 years since the historic handshake between Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin, that sealed the Oslo accords and outlined the path to a two state solution, Israelis and Palestinians are no closer to reaching a permanent solution to their conflict and many experts now believe that the two state solution is no longer practical nor feasible.
Over the last five years, an increasing number of prominent Israelis and Palestinians have openly called for or began considering the practicality of a shared future where the two state solution is seen as an obstacle to peace rather than a path to peace. The new proposals generally include concepts such as a federation, confederation or a one state solution between Israel and Palestine.
More recently, the idea of a shared future has expanded to include grassroot, leaderless efforts among Palestinians and Israelis who pursue their own initiatives to explore the concept of a shared future. One notable effort occurred in 2012 when a group of Palestinians and Israelis organized a historic conference in the settlement of Ariel to discuss the possibility of living together in a united country.
Moreover, a plethora of Facebook groups, which focus on creating a united country of Israel/Palestine, have spontaneously popped up. The roundtable will explore alternatives to the two state solution with emphasis on a shared future for Israelis and Palestinians.
RSVP for the event at:
wselig@upf.org
11. The Middle East and North Africa FY 2014 Budget: Priorities and Challenges, Wednesday, May 22 / 2:00pm, U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
2172 House Rayburn Office Building
SPEAKERS: Beth Jones, Alina L. Romanowski
Witnesses:
The Honorable Beth Jones, Acting Assistant Secretary of State
Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
U.S. Department of State
Ms. Alina L. Romanowski, Acting Assistant Administrator
Bureau for the Middle East
U.S. Agency for International Development
More information on the event here:
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-middle-east-and-north-africa-fy-2014-budget-priorities-and-challenges
12. ‘Afghanistan 2014: Transition to What?’, Wednesday, May 22 / 5:00pm – 7:00pm , Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Rome Building
1619 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C.
SPEAKERS: Ali A. Jalali
Ali A. Jalali, distinguished professor of the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University and former interior minister of Afghanistan, will discuss this topic. Note: A reception will precede the forum at 5 p.m.
To RSVP, contact
saiscaciforums@jhu.edu.
For more information, please visit:
http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-05-22-170000-2013-05-22-190000/afghanistan-2014-transition-what
13. Muslims and International Religious Freedom: An Overview, Wednesday, May 22 / 7:00pm , Al-Hewar Center
Venue: Vienna Community Center, 120 Cherry Street, S.E., Vienna, VA
SPEAKERS: Azizah al-Hibri
A conversation with Dr. Azizah al-Hibri, Esq., Founder and Chair of KARAMAH
For more information, visit:
http://www.alhewar.com/newevents.html
14. A Conversation with His Excellency Mr. Ahmet Uzumcu, Thursday, May 23 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm , Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
SPEAKERS: Ahmet Uzumcu
The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) entered into force in 1997 and today has 188 parties. This treaty, which bans the development, production, acquisition, stockpiling, transfer or use of chemical weapons, has a robust verification regime including challenge inspections. Work to eliminate existing stockpiles of chemical agents continues among the treaty parties. But none of that applies to non-parties to the treaty. Allegations of the possible use of chemical weapons in Syria, which is not a party to the CWC, points to the need to do more.
Please join CSIS for a discussion with H.E. Mr. Ahmet Uzumcu, Director General of the OPCW, about the challenges to the chemical weapons nonproliferation regime today, including appropriate responses to the allegations regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
Register for the event here:
http://csis.org/event/conversation-his-excellency-mr-ahmet-uzumcu
14. What’s Next for Pakistan’s New Government?, Thursday, May 23 / 12:15pm – 1:45pm, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Shamila Chaudhary, Andrew Wilder, Malik Siraj Akbar, Dr. Simbal Khan, Peter Bergen
On May 11, Pakistanis turned out to the polls in record numbers to vote in a momentous election: the country’s first transition from one democratically elected government to another. The party of former two-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif quickly surged ahead on Election Day, easily winning a simple majority in parliament. But Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz face a range of thorny problems, from a vicious insurgency to a crippling energy shortage.
Register for the event here:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/pakistan_new_government
15. Iran: The Battle for the Presidency, Thursday, May 23 / 12:30pm – 1:30pm , Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Barbara Slavin, Ali Vaez, Meir Javedanfar
Iran’s Council of Guardians will announce the list of candidates for the next president of Iran on May 22-23. Our panel of experts will discuss the candidates, their platforms, and their likely impact on future domestic and foreign policy.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/iran-the-battle-for-the-presidency
16. Egypt: Political Challenges for the Youth Movement, Friday, May 24 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm , Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Jawad Nabulsi, Marina Ottaway
Egypt’s young generation played an important role in the country’s revolution, and they continue to be a political force. Nabulsi, an activist and organizer in the revolution who was shot multiple times, will discuss the future of the youth movement in Egypt.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/egypt-political-challenges-for-the-youth-movement
17. Summer Films: Fire on the Marmara & Sacred Stones, Friday, May 24 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm , Jerusalem Fund & Palestine Center
Venue: The Jerusalem Fund, 2425 Virginia Ave, NW Washington, DC 20037
Fire on the Marmara: On May 31, 2010 while still in international waters, Israeli commandos killed nine people who were traveling on a humanitarian mission on the Mavi Mamara. Traveling together with them, 700 activists from Caracas to Valencia, Barcelona, Brussels, London, Stockholm, and Istanbul attempted to bring supplies and break the blockade that the Palestinian population of Gaza has been suffering for years. A documentation of the events taking place on board the ship before, during and after the attack, filmmaker and passenger David Segara interviews the journalists and activists who survived, exploring their motivations for participating in the Freedom Flotilla.
Sacred Stones: Natural stone is the most requested Palestinian raw material, considered white oil. The Palestinian stone industry has to serve the construction needs of Israel, including that of illegal settlements on the Palestinian territory. The natural stone’s extraction system causes environmental, social, and health problems within villages, refugee camps and cities. The Israeli occupation responds with persecution of Palestinian complaints, whose voices are unanswered by international organizations and ignored by the Palestinian authorities.
Register for the event here:
http://www.thejerusalemfund.org/ht/d/EventDetails/i/38238
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The Islamists are coming
As a result of sweeping victories in elections, Islamists are emerging as strong political forces in post-revolutionary Arab states. Many argue that the Arab Spring has transformed into an Islamist winter and that Islamists will continue to dominate the political systems of post-revolutionary Arab countries for the foreseeable future. Others argue that the fate of these countries has not yet been entirely determined.
The Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center last week hosted a discussion of these and related issues under the title of “The Resistible Rise of Islamists.” Two distinguished experts on the region, Marina Ottaway and Leslie Campbell, offered perspectives on the causes of the rise of`Islamists and the possibility of non-Islamist governments in the Arab world.
Marina Ottaway, who is currently a Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center and previously at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focused her discussion on the rise of Islamists in three countries: Morocco, Egypt, and Tunisia. Egypt’s Freedom and Justice and the Salafist Nour Party got 67 percent of the seats in parliament, Tunisia’s (Muslim Brotherhood) Ennahda got 37 percent, and Morocco’s Party for Justice and Development got 22 percent of the vote.
The victories of Islamists at the ballot box were due in part to the weakness and fragmentation of the secular opposition. In Morocco, the danger of domination by Islamists is non-existent, because several other players present a counter-vailing balance. Morocco has a long history of well-established secular political parties that enjoy historical legitimacy due to their participation in the struggle for independence from the French. The palace is another major check on the power of Islamists.
In Tunisia and Egypt, Islamists are well-established and have strong support bases. The secular opposition is not only fragmented, but some of its parties and leadership were coopted by the authocratic regimes.
In Tunisia, the General Labour Union enjoys huge support but does not run in the elections. The center parties are fairly weak but have potential to grow in power. The Salafists are active in street demonstrations and will likely participate in future elections.
The Egyptian case is the most complicated of all. The Egyptian secular parties are weaker and more fragmented in comparison to their Tunisian and Moroccan counterparts. Only the National Salvation Front has real prospects. But once it decides to run in elections, its coalition will break down due to quarrels over leadership and lack of a unified message, other than saying ‘no’ to everything the Islamists want.
The rise of Islamists is resistible, not inevitable. Their success is due to the inaction and lack of organization among the secular parties. The opportunity for democratic governance in the Arab world is not lost. The Islamists are not necessarily more authoritarian or democratic than the secularists.
Democracy depends on “establishing a better balance between the Islamist and secular forces…and on establishing a pluralistic and more balanced political spectrum.” The real danger to democracy in the Arab revolution countries comes from the weakness of the secular forces and their inability to overcome their fragmentation. Balance can only be achieved by electoral outcomes.
Leslie Campbell, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the National Democratic Institute, said there are two reasons for optimism. First, the inexperience of the Islamists with governing will make their continuation in power unlikely due to the disillusionment of some of their own constituencies. Second, there are “signs that secular parties can have ample strength once they organize properly…as with Yemen’s socialist parties.”
Most of Campbell’s discussion focused on possible means through which the secular forces could be empowered. He said that “globalization in politics is of extreme importance.” The secular parties and forces in the Arab world could benefit greatly from establishing links with and learning from the experiences of parties in other parts of the world.
Ottaway and Campbell agreed that the weakness of the secular parties is an important factor that cannot be overlooked when trying to understand the sweeping victories of the Islamists, especially in Egypt. The threat to democracy does not come from the Islamist nature of the parties that are governing now. They may, Campbell noted, be the most liberal of the emerging parties in the Arab transitions to democracy.
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