Tag: Nigeria

Facilitating dialogue in conflict zones

I’ve got a book out co-edited with David Smock on Facilitating Dialogue:  USIP’s Work in Conflict Zones. For an easy intro, you can try my recent appearance on Voice of America.

This is no coffee-table crusher but rather a slim 170-page compilation of case studies from the last 13 years or so.  It includes two chapters on dialogues in Iraq (Mahmoudiya and Diyala) and one each on Kosovo, inter- and intra-faith dialogue in the Middle East and Colombia, civil society dialogues in Colombia, Nigeria (Niger Delta in particular) and justice and security in Nepal.  David wrote the introduction and we collaborated on the conclusion. The book grew out of a series of internal meetings at USIP that I convened starting in 2009, if I remember correctly, to compare notes on our various dialogue efforts.

The approach in the book is practical.  We were not trying to theorize, as others have, but to demonstrate in practice why dialogue is important, what it involves, the many factors that determine success and failure, and best practices that can increase the odds for success.

All but one of the dialogues described were conducted as United States Institute of Peace projects, with vital contributions by contractors, some of whom had been trained by USIP.  The exception was a USIP grant-supported project in the Niger Delta conducted by Acadmic Associates PeaceWorks.  All were efforts that were at the heart of USIP’s push to go abroad to demonstrate in practice what we thought we had learned in the previous decade or so of peace research, in which the Institute had played a seminal role, mainly through its publications.

When I arrived at USIP in 1998 it was a think tank with training and grant programs.  When I left in 2010 it was also a “do” tank, with a much-expanded training program and grants more focused on peace-building in conflict zones.  This transformation depended on the ingenuity, courage and commitment of the people who contributed to the projects described in Facilitating Dialogue.  These were not efforts for the squeamish, the faint of heart or those who don’t want to risk program failure.

We’ll be launching this book at USIP 10:30-noon on October 17 with a few presentations of the cases (I’ll do Kosovo, Rusty Barber Iraq, Colette Rausch Nepal) and some more general remarks by David Smock.  This will be my first presentation at USIP since I left almost two years ago.  Please join us for the occasion, which I expect will be a stimulating one.

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This week’s peace picks

Another quiet week in DC as the summer nears its end

1. U.S. Drones Policy: Strategic Frameworks and Measuring Effects, American Security Project, Monday August 20, 12:00pm-1:30 pm

Venue: American Security Project, 1100 New York Avenue, NW, Suite 710w, Washington, DC

Join us for a fact-based discussion with leading experts on counterterrorism about how we can better understand the effects and effectiveness of America’s drone campaign.
Are drones effective at containing al-Qaeda? Can we measure the social and political effects of a drone campaign? Is there a way to empirically determine what effects lethal drone strikes have on a country, on a terrorist movement, and on the broader global war on terrorism?

Speakers:

Aaron Zelin is the Richard Borow Fellow at The Washington Institute and the editor of Jihadology.net.
Will McCants is a research analyst at CNA, adjunct faculty at the John’s Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and the editor of Jihadica.com.
Christine Fair is an assistant professor in the Center for Peace and Security Studies (CPASS) at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. She is a renowned expert on South Asia and Islamist groups.

Moderated by:

Joshua Foust 
Fellow for Asymmetric Operations at ASP who researches the strategic uses of drones, terrorism, insurgencies, and national security strategy – focused on Central and South Asia. He is also a columnist for PBS and The Atlantic Monthly.

This discussion will be on the record

The discussion will begin promptly at 12:30 p.m. Please arrive by 12:15 p.m. for registration.

Register for this event here

2. Three Elections that Might Change the World, Center for National Policy, Tuesday August 21, 12:00pm-1:00pm

 Venue: Russel Senate Office Building, Room SR-485, Washington, DC 20510

In 2012, elections in the United States and Taiwan, along with the leadership transition in the PRC will all take place in less than a year’s time. What are the prospects for continuity and change in the complex triangle that is the US-PRC-Taiwan relationship?

Featuring:

Richard Bush 
Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies
The Brookings Institution

Wei (Victoria) Hongxia 
Visiting Scholar
Carnegie Endowment’s Asia Program

Anil Mammen 
Fellow for American Government and Politics
Center for National Policy

*A light lunch will be served*

Register for this event here 
3. The Role of the Opposition in Meeting Nigeria’s Challenges, Woodrow Wilson Center, Wednesday, August 22, 3:00pm-4:30pm
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
This event will examine the country’s current economic, political, and security challenges through the lens of the leading opposition party.  The discussion will feature: Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Executive Governor of Lagos State and current National Leader of the Action Congress of Nigeria; former US Ambassador to the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Howard F. Jeter; and Steve McDonald, Director of the Wilson Center’s Africa Program and Project on Leadership and Building State Capacity, will moderate.
Register for this event here

 

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This week’s peace picks

1. Prospects for U.S.-Iran Relations on the Nuclear Issue in the Years Ahead, Tuesday August 13, 3:30pm-5:00pm

Venue: 1717 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036

The Middle East Institute is proud to present its new MEI Scholar Insight.  Entitled ‘Prospects for U.S.-Iran Relations on the Nuclear Issue in the Year Ahead,’ this publication draws upon the broad expertise of 20 Middle East Institute scholars and outside guest experts to examine three scenarios for Iran: diplomacy, containment, and military action.  Over two roundtable sessions, participants analyzed U.S. policy, Iranian policy, Israel’s role in regard to the scenarios, reactions to prospective scenarios by the GCC states, Russia, and the other members of the P5+1, and the energy markets. The resulting report is a composite of MEI Scholar analysis on the above issues and seeks to capture points of substantial agreement as well as of divergence.  Please join us for the launch of this MEI featured publication and a discussion with principal authors Allen Keiswetter and Roby Barrett and contributors Geneive Abdo and Melissa Mahle.

Register for the event here

 

2. Celebrating Future Sudanese Leaders, Wednesday August 15, 5:30pm-8:30pm

Venue: Elliot School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052602, Lindner Commons

Join Banaa.org for an evening ceremony: Celebrating Future Sudanese Leaders. The ceremony will honor Banaa Scholars, who will share their personal experiences, their motivations and their visions for peace and development in Sudan. The event will also feature interactive discussion about the Banaa Scholarship Program and its objective to leverage the energy at US universities to promote cross-cultural understanding and to foster leadership among talented young Sudanese. This will be the concluding event of the first annual Banaa Summer Summit held at the George Washington University in Washington DC.

Register for the event here

 

3. BBG Research Series: Nigeria Media Use 2012, Thursday, August 16, 9:00am-10:00am

Venue: Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street NW (Entrance on 9th Street), Washington, DC 20004

The Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) and Gallup invite you to attend the BBG Research Series briefing, Nigeria Media Use 2012. The BBG and Gallup will unveil new findings about media consumption habits in Nigeria, including strong growth of digital media and the continued popularity of radio.

The country’s longstanding digital media gap has largely disappeared as mobile phone use has exploded nationwide, and Nigerians in the northern regions are more likely than ever before to turn to TV (67%), the Internet (20%), and SMS messages (45%) for news and information. The new research also reveals that Nigerians remain avid radio listeners, with 88% listening to the radio for news and information weekly or more frequently. Additionally, a growing number of mobile phone users (39%) in the north have used phones to listen to radio in the last week. In terms of content, the vast majority (83%) of Nigerians indicate a strong interest in health and healthcare issues.

Speakers will include:
• Chris Stewart, Senior Managing Consultant, Gallup
• Bruce Sherman, Director of Strategy and Development, BBG
• Robert Tortora, Chief Methodologist and Regional Research Director for Africa, Gallup
• William Bell, Research Director, International Broadcasting Bureau

The event will include a presentation of the key findings from the study, as well as a methodological overview and a review of historical media trends in Nigeria.

Register for the event here

 

4. Iraq and the Politics of Oil, Middle East Institute, Thursday August 16, 3:00pm-4:45pm

Venue: 1800 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20036

The Middle East Institute is proud to host a discussion about Iraq’s oil sector with Naufel Al-Hassan, Raad Al Kadiri, and Denise Natali. Iraq’s crude oil production is recovering, producing a significant jump in oil exports in 2012. And yet the growth in Iraq’s oil sector has exacerbated longstanding challenges, aggravating tensions between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurds and fostering accusations of patronage and corruption on both sides. How has the Iraqi government benefited from the recovery of Iraq’s oil industry? What hope is there of Baghdad and Erbil reaching an agreement over how to divide or share resources? What are the opportunities and challenges faced by international oil companies seeking to do business in Iraq? These are among some of the issues to be addressed by this distinguished panel.

Speakers: 
Naufel Al-Hassan

Raad Al Kadiri

Denise Natali

Moderator:
Allen Keiswetter

Register for the event here

 

5. Religious Extremism in Africa: The Case of Nigeria, Thursday August 16, 2:00pm-3:00pm

Venue: Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Avenue Northeast, Washington, DC

Since his election to the position of Primate, the Most Reverend Okoh has seen a rising tide of violence throughout his home country of Nigeria. He has witnessed firsthand the damage and destruction caused by Boko Haram and has had to deal directly with their country-wide insurgency. Given the Archbishop’s leadership of the largest Anglican Province in the world – 22 million Anglicans in Nigeria (including President Goodluck Jonathan) – and his engagement with national and international governments and leaders concerning the religious conflict in Nigeria, Primate Okoh offers a unique viewpoint on the escalating violence that is occurring throughout Nigeria at the hands of Boko Haram. Primate Okoh will examine the major factors that are contributing to this violence, with a particular focus on the religious ideology that drives Boko Haram to target churches and civilians throughout Nigeria.

Register for the event here

 

 

 

 

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This week’s peace picks

We are down to four-day weeks, but lots of interesting events anyway:

1. Egypt’s Elections: The End of the Revolution,  or a New Beginning? Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, 9:30 June 18

 

A Conversation with Khairi Abaza, Steven Cook, John Hannah and Oren Kessler

Monday, June 18
9:30 am-11:00 am

Breakfast and registration will begin at 9:15 am
RSVP Below.

Egypt has reached an historical crossroads. The two presidential candidates, Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik, present very different visions for Egypt. Shafik represents the old guard of the Mubarak era.  Morsi represents the ascendant Muslim Brotherhood.  In the wake of this momentous election, what direction will Egypt take? Why, after months of analysis, did scholars and Washington officials alike, incorrectly estimate the will of the Egyptian people? Will the elections lead to additional chaos and disorder, or will the results of this election bring closure and help Egypt move toward greater stability?

To assess these questions and others, FDD is pleased to host a breakfast conversation with:

Khairi Abaza, a scholar at FDD, noted for his focus on democratic reform in the Arab world, the spread of terrorism, and the influence of the media on politics. His columns appeared in various publications such as International Herald Tribune, The New Republic, Newsweek, Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, and The Weekly Standard. He is also a commentator on several American and international television stations such as Fox, BBC, France 24, Al-Jazeera and CBC. Before coming to Washington, Mr. Abaza worked for ten years in Egyptian politics. He served as a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and secretary of the Cultural Committee of the Egyptian Wafd Party. Mr. Abaza recently returned from Egypt where he had an up close look at the unfolding developments. Read his full bio here.

Steven Cook, Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He is an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy. Dr. Cook is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square and Ruling But Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey. He has published widely in a variety of foreign policy journals, opinion magazines, and newspapers including Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, the Journal of Democracy, The Weekly Standard, Slate, The New Republic Online, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, the International Herald Tribune, and Survival. Dr. Cook is also a frequent commentator on radio and television. He currently writes the blog, “From the Potomac to the Euphrates.” Prior to joining CFR, Dr. Cook was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution (2001–2002) and a Soref research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (1995–96).

John Hannah, who brings almost two decades of experience at the highest levels of U.S. foreign policy to his work as Senior Fellow at FDD.  From 2001-2009, Mr. Hannah served as one of Vice President Dick Cheney’s most trusted aides on national security issues.  He served as the Vice President’s deputy national security advisor for the Middle East, where he was intimately involved in U.S. policy toward Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, the peace process, and the global war on terrorism and later as the Vice President’s national security advisor, where he served as the Vice President’s top advisor on the full panoply of international issues from the Middle East to North Korea to Russia. Previously, Mr. Hannah worked as a senior advisor on the staff of Secretary of State Warren Christopher during the administration of President William J. Clinton, and as a senior member of Secretary of State James A. Baker’s Policy Planning Staff during the presidency of George H.W. Bush. Mr. Hannah writes and speaks widely on issues related to American foreign policy.  His articles have appeared in such publications as the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Wall Street Journal.  He blogs regularly at ForeignPolicy.com and National Review Online. Read his full bio here.

Oren Kessler, a Tel Aviv-based journalist covering Israel and the Middle East. Oren is the former Middle East affairs correspondent for The Jerusalem Post, and previously worked as an editor and translator at Haaretz. His articles have appeared in Foreign Policy, Middle East Quarterly, the Journal of International Security Affairs, Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs and other publications, and he is a frequent guest on international news programs discussing Israel and the Arab world. Oren holds an Hon. BA in History from the University of Toronto and an MA in Diplomacy and Conflict Studies from the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. Fluent in Hebrew and Spanish, he has studied literary and colloquial Arabic in the United States, the Diwaan center in Tel Aviv and Al-Quds University in East Jerusalem.

Please register below by June 14 to ensure your spot.
Open press coverage. Advance RSVP required. Camera setup at 8:30 am
1726 M Street, NW, Suite 700
Washington, DC 20036 

Questions? Contact erin@defenddemocracy.org or 202.250.6144

2. Getting serious on Syria: Can we close the Assad era without opening a can of worms? AEI, 1-3 pm June 18

 

Date / Time
Monday, June 18 / 1:00pm Register with host
Location
American Enterprise Institute 1150 17th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers John Mccain, Ammar Abdulhamid, Brian Fishman, David Schenker, Lee Smith, Michael Rubin
Description As the Syrian uprising approaches its sixteenth month, any remaining hope that Assad will end the bloodshed has evaporated. Neither international condemnation nor the dispatching of United Nations monitors has reduced violence in the country. Moreover, Russia and Iran continue to arm the regime. While U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has declared that the ‘Assad regime’s brutality against its own people must and will end,’ neither she nor the White House has outlined a strategy to meet that goal. While the Obama administration invoked a ‘Responsibility to Protect’ doctrine to justify military action in Libya, it has pointedly refused to do so in Syria. Do any options short of military force remain to end bloodshed in Syria? Is the Syrian opposition ready to govern, or would Assad’s fall unleash a sectarian and ethnic civil war? What would regime change in Syria mean for Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the U.S.? Join a panel of seasoned Syria experts as they debate these issues and more.Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will open the discussion with a keynote address.If you cannot attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.12:45 PMRegistration1:00 PMKeynote Address

John McCain, U.S. Senate (R-Ariz.)

1:30 PM

Panelists:

Ammar Abdulhamid, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies

Brian Fishman, New America Foundation

David Schenker, Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Lee Smith, The Weekly Standard

Moderator:

Michael Rubin, AEI

3:00 PM

Adjournment

Website: http://www.aei.org/events/2012/06/18/g…

3. Threats to Nigeria’s Security:Boko Haram and Beyond, Jamestown Foundation at Carnegie Endowment, 9-12 June 19

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Root Conference Room

1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20036

 Registration 

8:45 A.M. – 9:00 A.M.

***

Introduction 

Glen E. Howard

President, The Jamestown Foundation

 

***

 

Panel One: 

Domestic Factors of Instability in Nigeria

9:00 A.M. – 10:30 A.M.

 

Jacob Zenn

 “Instability in Northern Nigeria: The View From The Ground”

Analyst for West African Affairs

The Jamestown Foundation

 

Dibussi Tande

Beyond Boko Haram: The Rise of Militant Islam in Nigeria & Cameroon

Journalist & Blogger on Nigerian Security Issues

 

Dr. Andrew McGregor

“Central African Militant Movements: The Northern Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon Nexus”

Editor in Chief, Global Terrorism Analysis

The Jamestown Foundation

 

Mark McNamee

“The Niger Delta & The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)”

Analyst, The Jamestown Foundation

 

Q & A

***

Coffee Break 

10:30 A.M. – 10:45 A.M.

***

 

Panel Two:

Nigerian Security Issues and US-Nigeria Relations

10:45 A.M. – 12:00 A.M.

 

Lauren Ploch Blanchard

“US – Nigeria Relations and the United States Response to Boko Haram”

Specialist in African Affairs, Congressional Research Service

 

Carl LeVan

 “The Political Basis for Demilitarization and Dialogue in Nigeria”

Assistant Professor of African Politics, American University

 

Colonel Gene McConville

“Will Nigeria Develop A Counter-Terrorism Policy?”

Senior Military Advisor, Africa Center For Strategic Studies

Ambassador Eunice Reddick

“U.S.-Nigeria Engagement on Regional Security”

Director of the Office of West African Affairs, U.S. Department of State

 

 

Q & A

 

***

Concluding Remarks:

12:15 P.M.

 

 

 

 

***


Participant Biographies

 

 

Lauren Ploch Blanchard

 

Mrs. Blanchard provides nonpartisan analysis on African political, military and diplomatic affairs, and on U.S. policy in the region, to Members of the United States Congress, congressional committees, and congressional staff. She has written extensively on security issues on the continent, and has testified before Congress on U.S. military engagement and counterterrorism efforts in Africa. Prior to joining CRS, she managed governance programs in East and Southern Africa. Previously, Mrs. Blanchard served as Legislative Assistant in the United States Senate. She holds a master’s degree in National Security Studies from Georgetown University and a bachelor’s degree in Political Science and Classical Studies, with a minor in African Studies, from the University of Florida. Her publications include: Africa Command: U.S. Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa; Piracy off the Horn of Africa; Countering Terrorism in East Africa: The U.S. Response; Al Qaeda and Affiliates: Historical Perspective, Global Presence, and Implications for U.S. Policy; and Nigeria: Issues for Congress; among others.
 

 

Carl LeVan

 

Carl LeVan is an Assistant Professor in the School of International Service at American University in Washington, D.C., where he is Africa Coordinator for Comparative and Regional studies.  His articles on power-sharing in East Africa, democratization and civil society in Nigeria, the U.S. military’s Africa Command, and comparative authoritarianism have appeared in journals such as Governance, Africa Today, Democratization, Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics, and Journal of African Elections.  Prior to receiving his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California—San Diego, he worked as a legislative director on Capitol Hill, and then as the National Democratic Institute’s first Country Director in Nigeria.  His research focuses on comparative political institutions, democratization, and political development.  He recently finished a book manuscript on Nigerian government performance, and his new project (with the distinguished Latin Americanist, Todd Eisenstadt) explores the consequences of constitutional reform.  He publishes the blog Development4Security at carllevan.com.

Colonel Gene McConville

 

U.S. Army Colonel Gene McConville joined the Africa Center in October 2010 for a three-year assignment as Senior Military Advisor, Academic Affairs. Colonel McConville oversees curriculum and program development in the area of International Crisis Response and Management. Prior to joining the Africa Center, Colonel McConville was a Staff Officer, International Security Assistance Force/U.S. Forces Afghanistan. Colonel McConville has significant experience in Africa having served as the Army Attaché to the Federal Republic of Nigeria from 1991-1994.

 

Andrew McGregor

Andrew McGregor is Director of Toronto-based Aberfoyle International Security and Managing Editor of the Jamestown Foundation’s Global Terrorism Analysis publications. He received a Ph.D. from the University of Toronto’s Department of Near and Middle Eastern Civilizations in 2000 and is a former Research Associate of the Canadian Institute of International Affairs. He has worked as a consultant to New Scotland Yard’s SO15 Counter Terrorism Command and provided expert witness for the UK’s Crown Prosecution Service. His latest book is A Military History of Modern Egypt, published by Praeger Security International in 2006. Dr. McGregor has written over 300 articles on international security issues for organizations including Jane’s Intelligence, the Royal Institute of International Affairs and the Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies. He is the author of an archaeological history of Darfur published by Cambridge University in 2001 and provides frequent commentary on military and security issues for international newspapers, radio and television, including the New York Times, Financial Times, and the BBC.

 

 

Mark McNamee

 

Mark McNamee is an Intelligence Analyst for Sub-Saharan Africa at an international risk consulting firm in the Washington, D.C. region as well as a contract employee for the U.S. Army Combating Terrorism Center. He has an M.A. in International Relations from Johns Hopkins University (SAIS), with concentrations in Russian & Eurasian Studies and International Economics, and studied Russian in St. Petersburg, Russia for two years.

 

 

Eunice S. Reddick

 

Ms. Reddick is a career diplomat in the Senior Foreign Service, currently assigned to the State Department’s Africa bureau as Director of the Office of West African Affairs.  She was appointed U.S. Ambassador to Gabon and Sao Tome and Principe from 2007-10.  Prior to her current assignment, Eunice was Diplomat in Residence at Howard University.  She has worked at U.S. embassies in Zimbabwe, Cote d’Ivoire, and China.  During her more than 30 years of diplomatic service, she has also been assigned to the Bureaus of Population, Refugees and Migration Affairs; International Organization Affairs; East Asian and Pacific Affairs; and the Secretary’s Operations Center as Senior Watch Officer.  She was awarded a Dean and Virginia Rusk Fellowship and spent a year at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University.  Born and raised in New York City, Eunice received a BA in history and literature from New York University, and a Master’s degree in international affairs from Columbia University.

 

 

Dibussi Tande

 

Dibussi Tande is the leading Cameroonian blogger who publishes the award-winning blog, Scribbles from the Den. A former Associate Editor of Cameroon Life Magazine and Cameroon Today, Tande writes for a variety of print and online journals, and has contributed to a variety of publication such as the BBC’s Focus on Africa magazine, The Rhodes Journalism Review and Pambazuka, the authoritative pan-African electronic weekly newsletter. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Public Law from the University of Yaounde, and Masters Degrees in Political Science and Instructional Technology from Northeastern Illinois University and Northern Illinois University respectively. He recently published a book on politics and collective memory in Cameroon.

Dibussi Tande’s interests include the use of social media for political activism and social advocacy, the role of citizen journalism in Africa, and the rise of Radical Islam in West Africa with a focus on Cameroon and Nigeria.
Jacob Zenn

 

Jacob Zenn is an Analyst for West African and Central Asian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation and author of the upcoming book “Boko Haram in West Africa: Al Qaeda’s Next Frontier?,” which is based on his field research in Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger in May and June 2012. Mr. Zenn earned a J.D. from Georgetown Law as a Global Law Scholar and a Certificate in International Affairs from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Nanjing Center for Chinese-American Studies in Nanjing, China. At Georgetown Law he carried out a fellowship in Yemen sponsored by the American Society of International Law (ASIL) and Chadbourne & Parke LLP’s Middle-East North Africa Team during which time he also observed elections in Somaliland. Formerly a political risk consultant, he writes regularly for the Jamestown Foundation’s Militant Leadership Monitor and Terrorism Monitor publications focusing on Nigeria and Central Asia and contributes articles for Asia Times, SAIS Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst and the CTC Sentinel. Jacob has been a charter member of the National Language Service Corps since 2011 for Bahasa Indonesia, Mandarin Chinese and Arabic (MSA) and was a State Department Critical Language Scholar in Malang, Indonesia in 2011.

4. Arms racing in Asia? Who’s winning, who’s losing

Tuesday, June 19, 2012 | 9:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
AEI, Twelfth Floor
1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036
(Two blocks from Farragut North Metro)

This year, Asian military spending is expected to exceed Europe’s military spending for the first time in history. Moreover, Asian nations are funding the development of significant new capabilities. China’s first aircraft carrier embarked on its maiden voyage last year; Japan announced its intention to acquire F-35s; and India tested a long-range missile capable of striking Beijing, China.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is implementing a new operational concept called AirSea Battle. What factors are propelling this widespread military modernization? What are the implications for the military balance in Asia? Is Asia in an arms race? At this AEI event, two expert panels will examine major trends in Asian military modernization to assess their impact on power dynamics in the region.

If you cannot attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.

Agenda

9:15 AM
Registration

9:30 AM
Panel I: The Asia-Pacific Poles
Panelists:
Dan Blumenthal, AEI
Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings Institution
Chuck Jones, Lockheed Martin Corporation

Moderator:
Thomas Donnelly, AEI

10:30 AM
Question and Answer Session

10:45 AM
Panel II: U.S. Allies and Partners
Panelists:
Michael Auslin, AEI
Bruce Bechtol, Angelo State University
Michael Mazza, AEI
Mark Stokes, Project 2049 Institute

Moderator:
Gary J. Schmitt, AEI

11:45 AM
Question and Answer Session

12:00 PM
Adjournment

Event Contact Information

For more information, please contact Lara Crouch at lara.crouch@aei.org, 202.862.7160.

Media Contact Information

For media inquiries, please contact Véronique Rodman at vrodman@aei.org, 202.862.4871.

5. Israeli National Security Strategy in the Expanded Coalition, 3:30-5 pm June 19

Shaul Mofaz

Also available in العربية

A Conversation with Shaul Mofaz, vice prime minister of Israel

Watch live streaming video from washingtoninstitute at livestream.com

Shaul Mofaz’s victory in the Kadima primary election and subsequent decision to bring his party into the governing coalition sent shockwaves through Israel, changing the dynamics of regional politics. To discuss his strategy for security and peace, and ways in which the expanded coalition can promote these goals, The Washington Institute invited Lt. Gen. (res.) Shaul Mofaz to address a late-afternoon Policy Forum on June 19, 2012, from 3:30 to 5:00 p.m. EDT.

Shaul Mofaz is vice prime minister of Israel, minister without portfolio, and head of the Kadima Party. Previously the deputy prime minister, he has also served as minister of defense and, in his distinguished military career, as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces. He is a former military fellow at The Washington Institute.

Request an invitation to attend this event.

Watch live via webcast here Tuesday, June 19, 2012, from 3:30-5:00 p.m. EDT.

6. Afghanistan after NATO: An Afghan Perspective on Security and Development, 4:30-6 pm June 19

with

Albert Santoli (Moderator)
Founder and President of Asia America Initiative

General Hillaluddin Hilal
Member of the Afghanistan Parliament

General Ahmad Rahmani
CEO, IBEX Corporation, Afghanistan

Amb. Omar Samad
Former Afghan Ambassador to Canada

Qasim Tarin
Co-Founder and Chairman, Afghan Business Network
President and CEO, Electro Imaging Systems

Javid Ahmad (Invited)
Program Coordinator, German Marshall Fund’s Asia program

Tuesday, June 19, 2012
4:30 PM

The Institute of World Politics
1521 16th Street NW
Washington, DC 20036

Please RSVP to kbridges@iwp.edu.

NATO is now concluding a costly presence in Afghanistan, and the withdrawal of troops is gradually being conducted. The country, however, will remain a critical platform for international peace and stability for many decades to come. A resurgent Taliban would create a haven to inspire and train local and international terrorist groups. The production of opium would continuously fuel instability, crime, and corruption across Central Asia, the Balkans, Russia, and parts of Western Europe. Rivalries for influence and competition over Afghanistan’s natural resources could intensify competition between Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and India.  Endemic humanitarian crises for the Afghan people could be unbearable.

We often hear the opinions of commentators from the West. But what is the perspective of Afghan citizens who have devoted their lives to the freedom and rebuilding of their homeland? What will Afghanistan, the region, and the world look like in 2014-2015? Inside of Afghanistan, what type of post-occupation regime will take shape? What will be the influence or interference of Afghanistan’s neighbors? Can the narcotics trade be curtailed? Can civil war supported by Afghanistan’s neighbors be avoided? What effective options do the West, and above all, the Afghan people, still have?

Important components to peace and development are not only credible politics and economic development, but also effective transportation and logistical systems. Without road or air access into Afghanistan through Pakistan, Iran, and Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (under Russian influence or control), can a stable economy be built and sustained? Can humanitarian stability involving food and basic human needs for survival be achieved? Can struggling communities or a cohesive government be defended from attacks by well-supplied radicals? We will seek perspective on these questions from a panel of knowledgeable Afghan leaders who are dedicated in the fields of politics, economics, humanitarian issues, logistics and security.

This event is co-sponsored by The Institute of World Politics and Asia America Initiative.

Speakers

General Hillaluddin Hilal
General Hilal is a Member of the Afghanistan Parliament representing Baghlan Proivince from 2005 to present.  He served as a former Deputy Minister of Interior for Security from 2003-05 and a former senior advisor to the legendary Afghan Freedom Fighter Ahmad Shah Massoud during the resistance war against the Taliban/Pakistan from 1998-2001. He was a three-star General in the Afghan Air Force, and was senior advisor to the Defense Minister of Tajikistan and during the mediation between President Rahmanov and Abdullah Nuri, leader of the strongest opposition group. From 1996-98, he was Minister of Transportation, Avaiation and Tourism.  From 1993-95, General Hilal was Commandant of Afghanistan’s Northern Border Force.

General Ahmad Rahmani
General Rahmani is CEO of IBEX Corp in Afghanistan which provides security, air and ground transportation for international organizations, including NATO and UN agencies, and secure warehousing, logistics support, transportation and humanitarian assistance to Afghan refugees. He was Transportation Minster of Afghanistan during 1992-1997 under the transitional post-Soviet government. He was a General in the Afghanistan Air Force until retiring from the military in 2000.

Amb. Omar Samad
Amb. Omar Samad served as Afghanistan’s Ambassador to France from June 2009 to July 2011, while also accredited to Monaco. He served as Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Canada (2004-2009) and non-resident Afghan Ambassador to the Republic of Chile. From 2001 to 2004, he was the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kabul in capacity of Director General. He is currently a Senior Expert on Afghanistan at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC.

Born in Kabul in 1961 and son of a diplomat, he attended primary and secondary schooling in Kabul, Paris and London. Compelled to leave Afghanistan in 1979 following the Communist coup d’état, he settled in the United States, where he helped promote the cause of freedom and democracy in Afghanistan. For several years, Mr. Samad worked in the field of information technology, while pursuing a second career in media. In 1996, after achieving an MA at the Fletcher School, he launched Azadi Afghan Radio and website as part of the Afghanistan Information Center based in Virginia. He returned to Afghanistan in December 2001 and joined the Foreign Ministry. For many years, he has been a contributor and commentator for the international media, including CNN, the BBC, Al Jazeera and others. Most of his writings are published on the Foreign Policy blog.

Qasim Tarin
Qasim Tarin is the co-founder and Chairman of the Afghan Business Network and the President and CEO of Electro Imaging Systems.  He is also the interim President of the Afghan-American Chamber of Commerce, Northern California Chapter. He has worked with large corporations such as Toshiba America, IBM, Cannon USA, Xerox Corporation, Hewlett Packard, and Ricoh Corporation USA. He is a member of Rotary International and the CEO Alliance Group.

Javid Ahmad (Invited)
Javid Ahmad is a Program Coordinator with German Marshall Fund’s Asia program where he works on a range of initiatives, including the India Forum, workshops on Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Young Strategist Forum, Global Swing States, and the Brussels Forum. Prior to joining GMF, Ahmad worked in the Political and Legislative Section of the Embassy of Afghanistan and the Public Affairs Office of Voice of America. He previously worked for the Welfare Association for the Development of Afghanistan (WADAN) in Kabul and served as an International Elections Observer during Afghanistan’s Parliamentary Elections. Ahmad has been published in the Christian Science Monitor, The National Interest, Newsweek’s Daily Beast, The Diplomat and is also a regular contributor to Foreign Policy magazine’s AfPak Channel.

Albert Santoli, Panel Moderator
Al Santoli is Founder and President of Asia America Initiative, an international NGO dedicated to grassroots development, intercultural reconciliation, terror deterrence and peace building. From 1997-2001, he coordinated the only American program of non-governmental assistance to the anti-Taliban resistance in Afghanistan during the Taliban/al Qaeda reign of terror, while working as a foreign policy advisor in the US House of Representatives. His AAI Development for Peace project in Muslim Mindanao received a rare Philippines Presidential Citation for peace mediation and deterring terrorism in one of the most impoverished and conflict-plagued regions of Asia. He is a New York Times best selling author of military history and a long-time associate of the Institute of World Politics. In 1982, he was among the first international journalist to write for a major publication about the Soviet use of bio-chemical weapons in Afghanistan.

7. Dictatorship 2.0: Modern Authoritarian Regimes, Carnegie Endowment, 12:30-2 pm June 20

William Dobson, Srdja Popovic, Marc Lynch, Karim Sadjadpour

Register to attend

Amid the Arab Spring uprisings, the global war between freedom and repression is often perceived as a battle that pits tech-savvy, globalized democrats against out-of-touch, dim-witted dictatorships. In his acclaimed new book The Dictator’s Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy, William Dobson, Slate politics and foreign affairs editor, takes us behind the scenes in both camps, and explores how authoritarian regimes are increasingly employing twenty-first century techniques to protect the twentieth century status quo.

Srdja Popovic, founder and leader of the Serbian student movement that brought down the Milosovic regime, will discuss how “people power” can prevail, and George Washington University professor Marc Lynch will discuss these dynamics in the context of today’s Middle East. Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour will moderate.

8. When Iran Gets the Bomb: What Will It Do? What Will Others Do? What Will Be the Costs?, Hudson Institute, 9:30 am-12:30 pm June 21

As the world debates whether a steep price should be paid to stop prospects of an Iranian nuclear weapon, there remains little understanding of what consequences might flow from Iran’s possession of such weapons.

Hudson Institute will host a conference to analyze a world in which first Iran, and then some of Iran’s neighbors, become nuclear weapons states.  The conference does not seek to prejudge whether Iran will be stopped from reaching its nuclear goals, but to explore in greater depth the kinds of problems that the free world may encounter over time if Iran is not stopped. This discussion may help illuminate the costs of failure and show how the United States can prepare for a world that includes a nuclear-armed Iran.

The conference will consist of two sessions held between 9:30 AM and 12:30 PM. They will be conducted in an interactive workshop fashion.  The first session will discuss a world in which Iran has a small nuclear arsenal, and the second session will discuss a poly-nuclear Middle East.

Panelists:

Husain Haqqani, Boston University

Ali Alfoneh, American Enterprise Institute

David Wurmser, Delphi Global Analysis

Samantha Ravich, Former Deputy National Security Advisor, Office of the Vice President

Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique

Lee Smith, The Weekly Standard

Christopher Ford, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

The sessions will be moderated by Hudson Institute Senior Vice President Lewis Libby and Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Hillel Fradkin.

 

Betsy and Walter Stern

Conference Center

Hudson Institute

1015 15th St, NW,
6th Floor

Washington, DC 20005

This event will be streamed online here: http://www.hudson.org/watchlive.

Questions can be submitted via Twitter: @HudsonInstitute.

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Shifting sands

Uncertainty is breaking out all over the Greater Middle East.

With Crown Prince Nayef’s death in Saudi Arabia, the House of Saud will soon have to look past its octogenarian leadership to the next generation, with all the uncertainties that implies.  Will the next generation be as attached to religious and social Wahhabi conservatism as the current one?  Will it open an era of serious reform?

The suspension of the UN monitoring effort in Syria presages an increase in violent conflict with a highly uncertain outcome. Russia seems determined to keep Bashar al Assad in power, though its Foreign Minister denies it.  Iran will certainly exert itself in that direction.  I doubt the armed rebellion can beat the Syrian security forces any time soon, but we could see a lengthy insurgency fed by Saudi and Qatari arms shipments through Turkey.

The only real certainty in Egypt is that the military is trying to hold on to power.  Whether it can and what the consequences will be is highly uncertain, as are the results of today’s presidential election.  The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has arrogated to itself legislative power, which means it now has to deal with Egypt’s economy and social problems along security and law and order.  I don’t know any military establishments equal to that task, but the risk of new parliamentary elections may be greater than the SCAF wants to run.  It could end up forced to rule Egypt, likely badly, for some time to come.

Iraq‘s Prime Minister Maliki has faced down a parliamentary rebellion but Al Qaeda has renewed its murderous attacks against the country’s Shia. If they succeed in reigniting Iraq’s sectarian warfare, the promise of a relatively democratic society that produces a lot of oil will evaporate, leaving a bitter residue.

Iran‘s Supreme Leader Khamenei has concentrated power as rarely before in the Islamic republic’s history, but American and Israeli threats of military attack against it nuclear program make prediction even a year out difficult.

After ten years of rule by Hamid Karzai, even Afghanistan faces the uncertainty of an election (to be held no one knows when in 2013 or 2014) in which he will not be running and an end to the NATO combat role shortly thereafter.

I needn’t mention next month’s elections in Libya or the aging leadership in Algeria, where military success in repressing Al Qaeda in the Maghreb seems to have pushed the militants into the Sahel, where they are destabilizing several other countries.

A region that enjoyed decades of stability–some would say stagnation, much of it autocratically imposed–now registers high volatility.  Of course volatility can move in either direction:  there are possible positive developments as well as negative ones.  Tunisia has pushed the envelope in the positive direction.  Yemen seems to be making progress against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and affiliates, though some think the government offensive and U.S. drone attacks are creating more extremists than they are killing.  Morocco and Jordan have attempted some modest reforms that seem unlikely to suffice, but they may stave off open rebellion.

It is not easy to deal with uncertainty.  Most experts would recommend triage and prioritization.  Triage happens naturally.  There are only a few Middle East problems that will make it to the President’s desk:  Iran and Egypt most frequently, Afghanistan because of the American troops, and we can hope Syria when Obama meets with Putin this week at the G-20 in Moscow.

Prioritization of issues is harder.  Even those who recommend it muddle exactly what they mean.  Colleagues at the Carnegie Endowment recommend in a recent overview of the situation in the Middle East:

international actors should focus on a few, very specific issues for special emphasis, such as international human rights standards, the maintenance of existing treaty relationships, and the principle of peaceful settlement of international disputes.

But then they go on to recommend economic cooperation aimed at job creation, a non sequitur virtually guaranteed to disappoint expectations given limited U.S. resources and a track record of failure.  Not to mention the difficulty of meeting human rights standards, since these require equal gender treatment not readily available in the workplace in many of the countries in question.

Shifting sands will make navigation in the Middle East difficult for a long time to come.  I recommend to all my international affairs students that they learn Arabic, or another of the regional languages (Farsi most of all).  Even if American oil production continues to reduce already low U.S. dependence on the Middle East, the global oil market and the extremist movements the region has spawned will ensure we remain engaged there for a long time to come, triage and prioritization notwithstanding.

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Peace picks this week

Hard to know what to say about CSIS’s Global Security Forum 2012, but I’ve listed at least one session below.  Lots of other events too:

1. Panel Discussion on Arab Countries in Transition, Stimson, 10-11:30 April 9


Date Monday, April 9
Time 10 – 11:30am
Location Stimson

Stimson Center, Marshall Foundation, and Safadi Foundation USA
are pleased to announce a panel discussion on

ARAB COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION:
An Update on International Support
One Year after the Deauville Partnership

As international leaders prepare to gather next month for the U.S.-hosted G8 summit in Camp David, Arab nations in transition continue to face significant economic challenges.  The Deauville Partnership launched in France at the previous G8 summit in May 2011, established a political and economic framework to support the historic transitions launched by the “Arab Spring.”  What progress has been made since then?  How do G8 members plan to address the deepening economic challenges?  What is the role of international financial institutions?  What are the prospects for this initiative to evolve into a sustainable partnership between the West and the Arab world that ensures the region’s successful transition?

Panelists will discuss the latest initiatives and highlight areas that are in need of greater support.

Featuring:

Masood Ahmed, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, International Monetary Fund;

Inger Andersen (invited), Vice-President, Middle East and North Africa, World Bank;

Dr. Peter Howard, Coordinator for the Deauville Partnership, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State; and

Mona Yacoubian, (Moderator), Director, Pathways to Progress: Peace, Prosperity, and Change in the Middle East Project at the Stimson Center.


Click here to RSVP
or
follow the event live on Twitter at @StimsonCenter

2. Promise and Peril in Nigeria:  Implications for U.S. Engagement, CSIS 3-4:30 pm April 9

 with Ambassador Johnnie Carson
U.S. Department of State
Monday, April 9, 2012, 3:00 p.m. to 4:30 p.m.
B1 Conference Center, CSIS
1800 K St. NW, Washington, DC 20006
Please join the CSIS Africa Program for an address by Ambassador Johnnie Carson, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, on U.S. engagement with Nigeria. As Africa’s most populous nation, the world’s eighth largest exporter of oil, a rapidly emerging economic power and investment destination, and a significant player in regional and continental affairs, Nigeria is among the United States’ most important partners in Africa.  At the same time, the violent aftermath of the 2011 national elections, escalating attacks by militant group Boko Haram, a resurgence of violence in the oil-producing Niger Delta, and the continued influence of powerful vested interests underscore the many challenges that the country’s government and citizenry confront. Assistant Secretary Carson will offer his perspective on the breadth and complexity of U.S. engagement with Nigeria and the future of relations with this important U.S. partner.
Please RSVP to Kathryn Havranek at africa@csis.org

3. Integrating Official and Crowdsourced Crisis Information, WWC, 4-5 pm April 9

Crowdsourcing crisis information gathered via the Internet is not new to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Since 1999, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program has been generating Community Internet Intensity Maps (CIIMs) using geographic data submitted to the Did You Feel It? website. This open call to the public is a notable example of how USGS facilitates the sharing of critical crisis information by members of the public not only to provide valuable data for earthquake research at USGS, but also to provide immediate situational awareness for emergency management stakeholders. CIIM is one of the early instances of “crowdsourcing,” consciously developed long before the coining of this term by Jeff Howe in 2006.

New opportunities and challenges are emerging as members of the public use pervasive information and communication technologies,  including social media and social networking sites (e.g., Twitter, Facebook, and user-generated maps), to help in the immediate aftermath of major disasters. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program has already begun to investigate how to harness crisis data from the crowd via social media sites like Twitter to rapidly detect and characterize earthquake effects. However, as we increasingly have access to ever-growing streams of content online, how can crisis data from government agencies, satellite imagery companies, volunteer technical communities, disaster-affected populations, and the general public be integrated together to better facilitate emergency response, recovery, and mitigation efforts?

In this talk, Dr. Sophia B. Liu will discuss the opportunities and challenges with integrating official and crowdsourced crisis information based on the response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake and what has happened since this catastrophe, which was the tipping point for crowdsourcing and social media use in the crisis domain. Specifically, Dr. Liu will unpack the different interface challenges at the social, technological, organizational, and political levels. She will also discuss the meaning of “socially distributed curation” and its application to information management in the emergency domain.

About the Speaker

Sophia B. Liu, PhD is currently a Mendenhall Postdoctoral research fellow at the U.S. Geological Survey investigating crowdsourced geographic information around earthquakes. She works with Paul Earle at the National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colorado as well as Barbara Poore in Saint Petersburg, Florida through the National Geospatial Program and the Core Science Systems strategy. Specifically, Dr. Liu conducts research on the integration of official and crowdsourced geographic information pertaining to earthquakes. In May 2011, she received her PhD from University of Colorado, Boulder (CU) in the Technology, Media and Society interdisciplinary program at the Alliance for Technology, Learning and Society (ATLAS) Institute. In 2006, Dr. Liu was awarded a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship. Her graduate advisor was Professor Leysia Palen in the Department of Computer Science at CU directing Project EPIC (Empowering the Public with Information in Crisis) and the Connectivity Lab, where we conducted research in the emerging area of Crisis Informatics beginning in 2005 working at the intersection of social, technical, and informational aspects of crises and disasters. Her dissertation research focused on the use of social media pertaining to historically significant crises and the emergence of socially-distributed curatorial practices as a way of managing crisis information in the social media landscape. She has given numerous invited talks and guest lectures on the emerging use of social media during mass emergencies and historic disasters.https://profile.usgs.gov/sophialiu

Location:
4th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center
4.  Whither Pakistan-U.S. Relations? Looking Toward the Afghan Endgame and 2014, WWC, 11-12:30

April 10, 2012

After the September 11, 2001, attacks, Pakistan and the United States entered into a new counterterrorism alliance. Yet ever since then, the relationship between the two nations has been a rocky one. Today, this marriage of convenience seems to be approaching a breaking point. Can the troubled partnership be saved? Or will it dissolve in a messy divorce, as has happened in the past? Zahid Hussain, an award-winning Pakistani journalist and writer currently serving as the Wilson Center’s Pakistan Scholar, will address these and related questions in a discussion about one of the world’s most fraught bilateral relationships.

This event is organized by the Wilson Center’s Asia Program, and co-sponsored with the Middle East Program and International Security Studies.

Location:
5th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center

Event Speakers List:
  • Zahid Hussain//

    Pakistan Scholar
    Pakistan Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and The Times of London.

5.  The Transformation of Political Islam in The Arab Awakening:  Who Are the Major Players? Rayburn, 9:30 am April 11

The Middle East Policy Council invites you and your colleagues to our 68th Capitol Hill Conference. Live streaming of this event will begin at approximately 9:30am EST on Wednesday, April 11th and conclude around noon. A questions and answers session will be held at the end of the proceedings. Refreshments will be served.

April 11, 2011. 9:30am – Noon
Rayburn House Office Building, Gold Room (Room 2168)
RSVP Acceptances only: (202) 296-6767 or info@mepc.org

Speakers:  

John O. Voll

Professor, Georgetown; Associate Director, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center for
Muslim-Christian Understanding

Steven Kull

Director, Program on International Policy Attitudes; Senior Research Scholar, University of Maryland

Alexis Arieff

Analyst, Congressional Research Service

Peter Mandaville

Director, Ali Vural Ak Center for Global Islamic Studies, George Mason University


Moderator:

Thomas R. Mattair

Executive Director, Middle East Policy Council

6. The Regional Implications of Shia-Sunni Sectarian Conflict In Middle East and South Asia, Georgetown University, 12:30 pm April 11

and

invite you to:

“The Regional Implications of Shia-Sunni Sectarian Conflict In Middle East and South Asia”

________________________

featuring

Vali Nasr

_______________________________________________

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

12:30pm – ICC 270

_______________________________________________

Over the past decade sectarianism has emerged as a major fault line in Middle east politics. Tensions between Shias and Sunnis have found new meaning in light of the Arab uprisings of the past year to define regional rivalries from the Levant to the Persian Gulf. The conflict in Syria, tensions in Bahrain, Lebanon and Yemen, simmering violence in Iraq and the larger regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia all tell of the growing importance of the sectarian divide.



Vali Nasr is Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University, Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy at Brookings Institution, and a columnist at Bloomberg View. He served as Senior Advisor to U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke between 2009 and 2011. He is the author of Forces of Fortune: The Rise of a New Middle Class and How it Will Change Our World (Free Press, 2009); The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam will Shape the Future (W.W. Norton, 2006); and Democracy in Iran: History and the Quest for Liberty (Oxford University Press, 2006); as well as a number of other books and numerous articles in academic journals and encyclopedias. He is a Carnegie Scholar for 2006. He written for New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal,and The Washington Post, and has provided frequent expert commentary to media including CNN, National Public Radio, Newshour, Charlie Rose Show, Meet the Press, the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, The Colbert Report. He received his BA from Tufts University in International Relations, MALD from the Fletcher School of Law in and Diplomacy, and his PhD from MIT in political science in 1991.

 


Seating is limited.

Lunch will be served.

For directions to the Center and information on parking, please visit: http://acmcu.georgetown.edu/about/contact/

7. Global Security Forum 2012: Toward 2014: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the U.S. Role in the Region, CSIS, 11-12:15 April 11

The Global Security Forum 2012 is a forum on the top challenges facing U.S. and global security. In the coming years, U.S. Special Operations Forces are poised to take on new responsibilities and missions as they transition into a role as a truly “global force.” The panel will discuss the implications of this shift, the future of SOF, and proposed changes to the governing structure of these elite forces.

Toward 2014: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the U.S. Role in the Region

Anthony H. Cordesman,
Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, CSIS

Kori Schake,
Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Amb. Ronald E. Neumann,
Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan

Moderator:
Robert Lamb,

Senior fellow and director of the Program on Crisis, Conflict, and Cooperation at CSIS

8.  Azeris of Iran: Their Condition, Status and Future Prospects, SAIS, 5:30-7 pm April 11

Hosted By: Central Asia Caucasus Institute (CACI)
Location: Rome Building Auditorium, The Rome Building
Summary: Shapoor Ansari, a cardiac surgeon in San Francisco who has worked in both medical and cultural spheres in Azerbaijan, and Huseyn Panahov, the first cadet from Azerbaijan to attend the United States Military Academy at West Point, will discuss this topic. For more information and to RSVP,contact sasicaciforums@jhu.edu.
9.  U.S.-Iraq Relations after the Withdrawal, MEI, 12-1:30 April 13

Location:

1800 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington
District of Columbia
20 036

The Middle East Institute is proud to host Amb. Jeffrey Feltman, Amb. Feisal Istrabadi, and Daniel Serwer for a discussion about the state of U.S.-Iraqi relations in the wake of the U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq in December 2011. Panelists will explore both the challenges and opportunities presented by the transition of the U.S.-Iraqi partnership from a mainly military to a diplomatic one. What sort of working relationship is emerging between the U.S. and Iraqi governments? What kind of cooperation is taking place in the areas of domestic and regional security, diplomacy, trade, energy, and reform? How has the troop drawdown affected U.S. influence in Iraq and the region in general? Feltman, Istrabadi and Serwer will explore strategies and policies resulting from the new bilateral dynamics.

Bios:  Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman has served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs since 2009. A career member of the Foreign Service since 1986, Ambassador Feltman served as principal deputy assistant secretary in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs from February 2008 to his present assignment, serving concurrently as acting assistant secretary of state for the Bureau since December 18, 2008. From July 2004 to January 2008, Ambassador Feltman served as the U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Lebanon. Prior to his assignment in Lebanon he headed the Coalition Provisional Authority’s office in the Irbil province of Iraq, serving simultaneously as deputy regional coordinator for the CPA’s northern area. From 2001 until 2003, Ambassador Feltman served at the U.S. consulate-general in Jerusalem, first as deputy principal officer and then as acting principal officer. Other postings include Tunisia and Israel.

Ambassador Feisal Istrabadi served as deputy permanent representative for Iraq at the United Nations from 2004 to 2007. He is currently the founding director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East at Indiana University-Bloomington where he is also University Scholar in International Law and Diplomacy. Prior to his diplomatic appointment, Ambassador Istrabadi served as a legal adviser to the Iraqi Minister for Foreign Affairs during the negotiations for United Nations Security Council resolution 1546 of June 8, 2004, which recognized Iraq’s reassertion of its sovereignty. He was also principal legal drafter of Iraq’s interim constitution, the Law of Administration of the State of Iraq for the Transitional Period, and principal author of its Bill of Fundamental Rights. Before contributing to the reconstruction of Iraq,  Amb. Istrabadi was a practicing trial lawyer in the United States for 15 years.

Daniel Serwer is a scholar at the Middle East Institute as well as a senior research professor of conflict management and a senior fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Formerly vice president for Centers of Peacebuilding Innovation at the United States Institute of Peace (2009-10), he led teams there working on rule of law, religion, economics, media, technology, security sector governance, and gender.  He was also vice president for peace and stability operations at USIP (1998-2009), where he led its peacebuilding work in Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan and the Balkans. Serwer has worked on preventing inter-ethnic and sectarian conflict in Iraq and has facilitated dialogue between Serbs and Albanians in the Balkans. In 2006, he served as executive director of the Hamilton/Baker Iraq Study Group.

Moderator: Charles Dunne is the director for Middle East and North Africa Programs at Freedom House and a scholar at the Middle East Institute. He spent 24 years as a diplomat in the U.S. Foreign Service, serving overseas in Cairo, Jerusalem, and Madras, India.  In addition, he was director for Iraq at the National Security Council from 2005-2007 and a foreign policy adviser to the director for Strategic Plans and Policy at the Joint Staff in the Pentagon (2007-2008).

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