Tag: Nuclear weapons
Advantage Harris, but the set isn’t over
Those who imagined Kamala Harris lacked charisma and enough time to build the momentum required to run for President have already proven wrong, less than 48 hours after she became the candidate. The campaign has already taken in more than $100 million in smaller donations and even more in large ones. Tiktoks of the dancing Vice President are all over the web. The Democratic Party has united in backing her. She can win.
Republicans are having trouble finding more than her boisterous laugh to criticize. To be sure, Donald Trump is calling her a socialist and extremist. That isn’t finding much traction when applied to a career prosecutor. The contrast with his 34 felony convictions, giant civil judgments against him, and his criminal indictments is dramatic:
What Americans want
What a large slice of American wants is the Biden Administration without Biden. They want the health care provided by Obamacare. They want the access to abortion that Trump’s Supreme Court nominees took away. The pace of inflation is way down and continuing to decline while employment is holding up reasonable well. They like that, even if they complain about price levels. They don’t complain about Biden’s tax policies, which have increased taxes on the rich and reduced them on the middle class. America’s recovery from COVID has outpaced other major countries:
On foreign policy, Americans want support for Ukraine and Israel, while hoping for an early end to their wars. Support for NATO is strong. So too is support for Taiwan and other allies in the Pacific.
They would get none of that from Trump
Trump would disappoint Americans on all those fronts. He has doubted the value of US alliances in both Asia and Europe. He has even suggested that South Korea and Japan should get their own nuclear weapons, rather than sit under the US umbrella. Taiwan would have to defend itself from China.
Trump has repeatedly vowed to end Obamacare, vaunted his Supreme Court nominees, and presided over a confused and ineffective response to COVID-19. His minions have prepared plans to fire tens of thousands of competent civil servants. He intends to reduce taxes on the super rich and increase them on the middle class, via his 10% tariff.
Ad Harris
So Harris is having a good week. Trump is having such a bad one he is reportedly wondering whether he can dump JD Vance as vice presidential candidate. If you don’t get that right, are you qualified to be president?
Harris’ first big decision is likewise choosing a vice president. There is ample talent available. The question is who will help her with the most Electoral Votes. I don’t pretend to know, but I won’t be surprised if it is someone from North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.
I’ve got friends who suggest it should be a Republican, even Mitt Romney or Liz Cheney. That would be unlikely to please the Democratic base. It’s an idea that will need to await the formation of a cabinet next year.
The long road to November
Sustaining momentum is difficult. Harris will need some future projects to talk about during he campaign. She may focus on the bipartisan immigration legislation that Trump blocked from passing in the House. She will surely push for a clearer path to citizenship for undocumented people, especially those brought to the US as children. Student loan forgiveness is another possibility, as is legislation on national rules for abortion and limits on presidential immunity.
The Democrats are fortunate that their convention is August 19-22, which gives Harris time not only to pick her vice president but also to try to ensure that the convention goes smoothly. I was in Chicago for the 1968 convention that went south. Demonstrations are to be expected. The police need to handle them well. Getting a prominent Republican or two to speak at the convention would be a good idea. Cheney or Kinzinger or fit there well, not because of policy positions. They know who Trump is and are willing to say it plainly.
There is no telling what may happen by fall. Biden and Harris will need to be in sync. She has already demonstrated that she is quick. Now she needs to demonstrate that she can manage a unifying convention, a big campaign, and Trump’s unrestrained attacks.
PS: Here is they guy who wasn’t sharp enough to be president:
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, February 15
– The House intelligence committee has notified the chamber that members can see a highly classified report about an emerging Russian threat, reportedly a nuclear space-based anti-satellite weapon. Jake Sullivan is set to brief the Gang of 8 today.
– WSJ analyzes the deteriorating Biden-Netanyahu relationship
– DOD has some smart graphics defending Ukrainian aid
– Defense One notes how slow European artillery production is
– I don’t know House rules very well, so I was intrigued by Punchbowl News’ article noting that the Previous Question motion can be used to defeat a House rule resolution, thereby opening it to amendment — a possible way to get House consideration of the foreign aid package that passed the Senate, and much easier politically than a discharge petition.
—
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to âStevensonâs armyâ via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevensonâs army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. Youâll get an email confirming your join request. Click âJoin This Groupâ and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, February 4
–Houthi strikes and more NYT updates
– WSJ says US stays clear of Iran red lines
– WSJ interviews Israeli far-right leader
-NYT explains Xi’s nuclear approach
– FP says Trump would greatly change US foreign aid
-House GOP plans simple Israel aid bill
—
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to âStevensonâs armyâ via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevensonâs army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. Youâll get an email confirming your join request. Click âJoin This Groupâ and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, February 3
– Politico says Air Force plans major reorganization
-Semafor says Iran tried to use an NGO to influence US
– WSJ details UNRWA links to Hamas
– Politic says Biden trade policy splits Democrats
– WSJ explains how a rogue billionaire could build a bomb
—
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to âStevensonâs armyâ via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevensonâs army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. Youâll get an email confirming your join request. Click âJoin This Groupâ and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, January 27
– WaPo says US isn’t planning Ukraine offensive
– Michael Kofman et al. have their suggestions on WOTR
– Kenya court blocks Haiti mission; Haiti suffers.
– Congress approves F16s to Turkey
– Additional countries halt aid to UNRWA
– Biden promises border crackdown if new law is passed
– WaPo says Trump plans expanded trade war with China
– Fred Kaplan revisits Ukraine nuclear decision with declassified documents
– SAIS Prof Hal Brands sees risks of global war
– NYT reviews Gaza peace efforts
—
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to âStevensonâs armyâ via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevensonâs army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. Youâll get an email confirming your join request. Click âJoin This Groupâ and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Has the sunset of the West begun?
Pantelis Ikonomou writes:
After the collapse of then existing socialism in 1991, the clash of ideologies seemed finished. Francis Fukuyama’s “The End of History” became a bestseller.
It did not take long for him to admit the error of his prophecy. At the same time, humanity was realizing that hopes for global peace were false. History continued to flow, yet more violently and at higher human costs.
The US is to blame
The undeniable protagonist of the new hot war era was the winner of the 45-year Cold War: the American-led democratic West. The Warsaw Pact dissolved, but NATO continued to exist and to progressively encircle Russia, the collapsed adversary.
The US, with or without NATO, led a series of wars that go on to this day: the Gulf War (1991), the devastating bombardments of Yugoslavia (1995 and 1999), the military interventions in Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), Libya (2011), Syria (2014) and the latest, indirect but decisive US involvement in Ukraine (2022) and the slaughter in Gaza (2023).
Human values ââand democratic principles are not the driving force of this on-going violence. It is the superpower’s eternal greed to achieve and maintain global hegemony.
What’s next?
In periods of crises, political change is critical. Is there a basis for hope?
Although history’s next games remain unknown, we will get to know one of them relatively soon. Recent polls in the US sugest that the presidential election next November will likely get Donald Trump, or a Republican politician with similar views, back on the top of the global American superpower.
The entire world, including the European democratic West, should not forget ex-President Trump’s unorthodox, unpredictable, and thus perilous persona.
Flash back
In 2016, president-elect Trump announced his doctrine for world order: “America First”. Its main pillar was the dissolution of the EU. He strongly urged European countries to follow the example of Brexit.
The head of the Munich Security Conference, Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, called this “a non-military declaration of war.” The response of the then President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, was characteristic: “Europe is threatened from all sides, including the USA.” Then German Chancellor Angela Merkel wondered whether “we will be able to cooperate with the US in the future or will we retreat into parochial policies.” At the same time, she underlined the importance of international multilateral institutions, such as the EU and the UN, which Trump defiantly discredited.
Trump also encouraged US allies Japan and South Korea, and indirectly Saudi Arabia, to acquire nuclear weapons. This violated American obligations, as well as the binding commitments of the countries in question to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Trump publicly described NATO as “obsolete.” He even proposed a retreat to bilateral agreements, a proposition Russia would support.
Hence, there are well-founded doubts worldwide about the future posture of the US in defending the security, principles, and interests of the democratic West as well as abiding by historic alliances and international treaties.
Is the West at a geopolitical turning point? Has the sunset begun?
RSS - Posts
