Tag: Nuclear weapons
Peace Picks: April 15-April 19
Abundant interesting events in a busy week:
1. Tribal Societies & Counterterrorism in Pakistan, Monday April 15/ 11:00am-12:30pm, US Institute of Peace
Venue: Us Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Ambassador Akbar Ahmed, Peter Bergen, Hamid Khan
In recent months discussions around drone strikes have grown increasingly heated with claims and counter-claims around their legality, morality, and/or effectiveness as a counterterrorism weapon. Amid the heated disputes between diplomats, politicians, lawyers, and civil society activists, the views of those most directly affected by the drone strikes – those living in tribal communities in border regions – have yet to be heard.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.usip.org/events/tribal-societies-counterterrorism-in-pakistan)
2. Takedown: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda, Monday April 15/ 1:00-2:30pm, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Philip Mudd, Peter Bergen
On September 11, 2001, as Central Intelligence Agency analyst Philip Mudd rushed out of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, he could not anticipate how the terror unleashed that day would change the world of intelligence and his life as a CIA officer. Mudd, now a fellow with the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program, would later serve as deputy director of the CIA’s rapidly expanding Counterterrorist Center and then as senior intelligence adviser at the FBI.
Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies for a conversation with Philip Mudd and Peter Bergen about Mudd’s new book, Takedown: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda, which provides a first-person account of his role in two organizations that changed dramatically after 9/11. The book also sheds light on the inner workings of the intelligence community during the global counterterror campaign.
Copies of the book will be available for purchase.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/takedown_the_hunt_for_al_qaeda)
3. Afghanistan’s Economic Transition, Monday April 15/ 2:00-3:30pm, US Institute for Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: William Byrd, Borany Pehn, Fatema Sumar, Robert Saum
Afghanistan’s current transition – involving drawdown of international combat troops and hand-over of security responsibilities to Afghan security forces as well as reductions in international aid – is now well into its second year. Along with the security and political dimensions (including the next cycle of presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014 and 2015, respectively), the economic transition is an important factor influencing the success of the overall transition process. The recent publication of the World Bank’s study ‘Transition in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond 2014′ provides an opportunity to review progress, consider key issues, and assess prospects. This event, after a brief presentation and discussants’ comments, is intended to generate an open and frank discussion on economic transition issues and policy options.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.usip.org/events/afghanistans-economic-transition)
4. Author Event: Shadow Lives: The Forgotten Women of the War on Terror, Monday, April 15/ 6:30-8:00pm, Institute for Policy Studies
Venue: Busboys & Poets @ 14th & V, 2021 14th St, NW, Washington, D.C. 20009
Come to a compelling discussion about the unseen side of the ‘9/11 wars,’ as IPS Fellow Phyllis Bennis interviews author Victoria Brittain about her new book, Shadow Lives: The Forgotten Women of the War on Terror. The book reveals the impact the ‘9/11 wars’ has had on the wives and families of men incarcerated in Guantanamo, or in prison or under house arrest in Britain and the US. Brittain shows how these families have been made socially invisible and a convenient scapegoat for the state in order to exercise arbitrary powers under the cover of the ‘War on Terror.’
Her book reveals how a culture of intolerance and cruelty have left individuals at the mercy of the security services’ unverifiable accusations and punitive punishments. Both a ‘j’accuse’ and a testament to the strength and humanity of the families, Shadow Lives shows the methods of incarceration and social control being used by the British state and gives a voice to the families whose lives have been turned upside down. In doing so it raises urgent questions about civil liberties which no one can afford to ignore.
After the discussion there will be the customary book signing by Brittain.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.ips-dc.org/events/author_event_shadow_lives_the_forgotten_women_of_the_war_on_terror)
5. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Assessing the Current State & Debating the Future, Monday April 15 6:30-8:00pm, US-Middle East Youth Network
Venue: Georgetown University, 3700 O St NW, Washington DC, White-Gravenor Hall, Room 208
Speakers: Matthew Kroenig, Colin Kahl, Michael Eisenstadt
As negotiations between Iran and the international community continue, progress towards reaching a resolution regarding Iran’s disputed nuclear program has all but stalled. What are the current prospects for the success of diplomacy? Is a military option viable, sustainable, and/or worse than the alternative, political track? Can the US prevent a preemptive strike by Israel? What ramifications might this have for regional stability and nonproliferation efforts? What might the coming months hold for the conflict surrounding Iran’s nuclear program? Explore these questions and more with Professors Colin Kahl, Matthew Kroenig, and Mr. Michael Eisenstadt from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy this Monday at 6:30pm in WGR208!
For more information see:
(http://usmeyouthnetwork.org/)
6. The Future of Egypt’s Economy, Tuesday April 16 11:30am-1:30pm, Aspen Institute
Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW Suite 700
Speakers: Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Hisham Fahmy, Daniel Kurtzer
Surrounded by political uncertainty, the Egyptian economy has experienced a sharp decline over the past two years. While the Egyptian government struggles to maintain macroeconomic stability and international confidence, it faces significant challenges; unemployment continues to increase, and the country’s key sectors have seen a sluggish recovery.
Partners for a New Beginning is organizing a roundtable discussion to address economic challenges as well as opportunities to overcome them. Panelists will address the role of the private sector and international community in driving economic growth in Egypt.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/04/16/future-egypts-economy)
7. Domestic Drivers of Turkey’s Democratic Transformation, Tuesday, April 16 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, SETA Foundation at Washington DC
Venue: SETA Foundation at Washington, DC, 1025 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Sener Akturk, Kadir Ustun
Turkey’s democratization process over the past decade has been the subject of much debate. Many studies identify external dynamics such as Turkey’s EU membership negotiations as main drivers of democratic progress. Internal dynamics that made possible various democratic initiatives, such as the reforms allowing for much broader ethnic, linguistic, and religious minority rights, however, remain underappreciated. As the country seeks to consolidate its democracy through a new civilian constitution, lessons from the past decade will be critical to identify contours of democratic change in Turkey.
On April 16, 2013, the Young Scholars on Turkey (YSOT) Program will host a discussion on the domestic drivers of Turkey’s democratic transformation. The panel will feature Sener Akturk, Assistant Professor at Koc University in Istanbul, author of a new book, Regimes of Ethnicity and Nationhood in Germany, Russia, and Turkey, recently published by Cambridge University Press. Kadir Ustun, Research Director at SETA DC, will moderate the discussion.
Register for the event:
http://setadc.org/events/50-upcoming-events/465-domestic-drivers-of-turkeys-democratic-transformation
8. Innovation and Peacebuilding: Breaking Down Silos and Engaging Civil Society, Tuesday, April 16 / 1:00pm – 4:00pm, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Jan Eliasson, Melanie Greenberg, Jessica Berns, Al Maamoun Baba Lamine Keita, John Agoglia, Paula Gaviria Betancur and more
The U.S. Institute of Peace in partnership with the Alliance for Peacebuilding is pleased to co-sponsor an afternoon of events that will explore innovation in peacebuilding, and provide examples of working across silos to achieve more stable and durable peace.
Jan Eliasson, deputy secretary-general of the United Nations, will open the afternoon with a discussion on the challenges facing the United Nations in Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding. During his career as one of the world’s top diplomats, Ambassador Eliasson also served as the special envoy of the U.N. Secretary-General for Darfur from 2007-2008. Preceding his work in Darfur, he was foreign minister of Sweden, after serving as Sweden’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2000-2005. His work has focused on mediation missions in the Middle East and Europe, as well as on broader topics such as landmines, humanitarian action, and conflict prevention. Ambassador Eliasson was appointed as the first U.N. undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs in 1992. He was also a senior visiting scholar at USIP in 2009.
Following the conversation with Ambassador Eliasson and to launch the Alliance for Peacebuilding’s new semi-annual, online publication, Building Peace: A Forum for Peace and Security in the 21st Century, a select group of Building Peace authors will frame a discussion on peacebuilding approaches to the complex conflict in Mali. Drawing on the perspectives shared in their Building Peace articles, these authors will lead a discussion about how peacebuilders can work with local citizens and international actors to address root causes of conflict, and bring security to war-torn societies.
To register for the event click here:
(http://www.eventbrite.com/event/6128655975#)
9. Mobilizing the Diaspora: Opportunities for Engagement in N. Africa, Tuesday, April 16 / 2:00pm – 5:00pm, Aspen Institute
Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW, Suite 700, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Walter Isaacson
This event will feature two roundtable discussions focused on supporting entrepreneur mentorship and education as well as building out access to finance and investment. There will also be an opportunity for networking to allow for diaspora and other US stakeholders interested in the region to connect.
To register for the event click here:
(http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/04/16/mobilizing-diaspora-opportunities-engagement-n-africa)
10. The Second Arab Awakening: Revolution, Democracy and the Islamist Challenge from Tunis to Damascus, Wednesday, April 17 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speaker: Adeed Dawisha
When, in early 2011, people poured onto the streets of Arab cities to demand freedom, it was not for the first time. An earlier spate of revolutions swept the Arab world in the 1950s and 1960s. Those revolutions that had promised so much bequeathed the recent crop of Arab despots. Dawisha puts the recent Arab awakening into historical context, then traces the progress and fates so far of revolutions from Tunis to Damascus, examining the overthrow of tyrants in some cases and the more brutal repression in others. Finally, he explores the threats and opportunities facing the victorious revolutionaries, the prospects for democratic transformations, and the meaning and consequences of Islamist victories at the polls.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rsvp?eid=26660&pid=112)
11. Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure with Diplomacy, Wednesday, April 17 / 12:15pm – 2:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: William Luers, Ambassador James Dobbins, Thomas Pickering, James Walsh, Carla Hills
This event is held in collaboration with The Iran Project.
Former senior national security officials, military officers and experts with decades of Middle East experience have joined to present a balanced report on the strategic options for dealing with Iran. Moving the debate past politics and unexamined assumptions they argue that the time has come for Washington to strengthen the diplomatic track in the two track policy of pressure and diplomacy that has characterized current U.S. policy.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rsvp?eid=26908)
12. Heaven on Earth: A Journey Through Sharia Law, Wednesday, April 17 / 3:00pm – 4:30pm, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052, Lindner Family Commons
Speaker: Sadakat Kadri
Legal historian and human rights attorney Sadakat Kadri argues that many people in the West harbor hazy or wrong ideas about Islamic law. Searching for the facts behind the myths, he traces the turbulent journey of Islam’s foundation and expansion and shows how the Prophet’s teachings evolved gradually into concepts of justice.
Sadakat Kadri is a legal historian and English barrister at the Doughty Street Chambers. In addition to his latest book, he regularly contributes to various publications including The Guardian and the London Review of Books, and is the author of The Trial: A History from Socrates to O.J. Simpson (2005).
A limited number of books will be available for GW students.
The Middle East Policy Forum is presented with the generous support of ExxonMobil.
Register for the event here:
(https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1_PQdoubx4EZmIKR6iED6KwTF-rOLbsJeNGxJwEzqqHM/viewform)
13. Iran: Are We Out of Options?, Wednesday, April 17 / 5:00pm – 7:00pm McCain Institute for International Leadership
Venue: U.S. Navy Memorial Burke Theater, 701 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004
Speakers: Hon. Robert Wexler, Amb. James Dobbins, Danielle Pletka, Amb. Thomas R. Pickering
With the clock ticking and renewed negotiations underway, there is no better time than the present to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. But if diplomatic attempts fail, what then? Analysts give Iran less than 18 months before its nuclear weapons capacity is assured. Successive U.S. Administrations have insisted that the use of military force to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program remains an option. As the clock winds down, are we out of options? Would military force even succeed in stopping Iran? Or would the consequences of military force be worse than a nuclear capable Iran? Hear leading American experts debate U.S. policy on Iran: Are we out of Options? — the third debate in a series at the McCain Institute.
To register for the event click here:
(http://mccaininstitute.org/events/upcoming/mccain-debate-and-decision-series)
14. Balanced Growth and Financial Stability in Turkey’ Thursday, April 18 / 9:00am – 11:00am, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, Kenney Auditorium
Speakers: John Lipsky, Erdem Basi
John Lipsky, SAIS distinguished visiting scholar of International Economics and former first managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and Erdem Basi, governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, will discuss this topic. Note: Breakfast will be served at 8:30 a.m. SAIS will also host a live webcast available here at the time of the event.
Register for the event here:
(http://lipsky-basci.eventbrite.com/)
15. Drone Warfare in 2030: Examining the Future of Expanding Drone Use, the Precedent that May be Set, and Constitutional Implications Here and Abroad, Thursday, April 18 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, AU Washington College of Law
Venue: AU Washington College of Law, 4801 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016, Room602
Speakers: Joshua Foust, Nathan Sales, Stephen Vladeck, Benjamin Wittes
The United States’ expanding use of armed drones has sparked numerous discussions on the legality and ethical desirability of their use. Yet the discussions seem to be merely focusing on the nation’s current practice and less on other states that will surely be deploying the warfare technology in the near future. This panel will aim to shift the current debate on the use of drones by the US to the question of how increased use will impact the laws of war and our constitutional ideals. To what extent can the US serve as a positive example for the international community with regard to using drones or has a precedent already been set?
Register for the event here: (https://www.wcl.american.edu/secle/registration.cfm)
16. Towards an Islamic Enlightenment: The Gulen Movement, Thursday, April 18 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm, Rumi Forum
Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speaker: M. Hakan Yavuz
M. Hakan Yavuz offers an insightful and wide-ranging study of the Gulen Movement, one of the most imaginative developments in contemporary Islam. Founded in Turkey by the Muslim thinker Fethullah Gulen, the Gulen Movement aims to disseminate a ”moderate” interpretation of Islam through faith-based education. Its activities have fundamentally altered religious and political discourse in Turkey in recent decades, and its schools and other institutions have been established throughout Central Asia and the Balkans, as well as western Europe and North America. Consequently, its goals and modus operandi have come under increasing scrutiny around the world.
Yavuz introduces readers to the movement, its leader, its philosophies, and its practical applications. After recounting Gulen’s personal history, he analyzes Gulen’s theological outlook, the structure of the movement, its educational premise and promise, its financial structure, and its contributions (particularly to debates in the Turkish public sphere), its scientific outlook, and its role in interfaith dialogue. Towards an Islamic Enlightenment shows the many facets of the movement, arguing that it is marked by an identity paradox: despite its tremendous contribution to the introduction of a moderate, peaceful, and modern Islamic outlook-so different from the Iranian or Saudi forms of radical and political Islam-the Gulen Movement is at once liberal and communitarian, provoking both hope and fear in its works and influence.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.rumiforum.org/component/option,com_dtregister/Itemid,135/eventId,144/task,event_register/type,reg_individual/)
17. On the Ashes of Sykes-Picot: Turkish Foreign Policy and the Making of a New Middle East Order, Friday, April 19 / 10:00am – 11:30am, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, Room 417
Speaker: Soli Ozel
Soli Ozel, professor of international relations at Istanbul Kadir Has University and Miller Family Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, and Emirhan Yorulmazlar (moderator), fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, will discuss this topic.
To RSVP for the event, email: ckunkel@jhu.edu
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Hobson’s nuclear choices
No one seems overwrought that the latest nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 (that’s US, UK, France, Russia, China + Germany) ended inconclusively yesterday in Almaty, Kazakhstan. An agreement on the eve of Iran’s presidential election campaign (voting is scheduled for June 14) was not likely. Iran is looking for acknowledgement of its “right” to enrich uranium, even if it limits the extent of enrichment and the amount of enriched material. The P5+1, led by European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, are looking for strict limits on enrichment (to 5% or below, with most more highly enriched materials shipped out of the country) and tight international inspections without acknowledging Iran’s right to enrich. They are also looking for suspension of enrichment at Iran’s underground facility at Fordo and a strict accounting for past activities, which appear to have included some nuclear weapons development.
There are related non-nuclear issues on which the gaps may be greater. Iran wants sanctions relief up front as well as cooperation on Syria and Bahrain. The Western members of the P5+1 want to maintain sanctions until they have satisfactory commitments and implementation that prevent Iran from ever having a nuclear weapons program. They are not willing to soften their support for the revolution in Syria against Iran’s ally Bashar al Asad or for the Sunni minority monarchy in Bahrain, which faces a Shia protest movement that Iran supports.
The Israelis are the only ones who seem seriously perturbed:
“This failure was predictable,” Yuval Steinitz, Israel’s minister of strategic affairs, said in a statement. “Israel has already warned that the Iranians are exploiting the talks in order to play for time while making additional progress in enriching uranium for an atomic bomb.” He added, “The time has come for the world to take a more assertive stand and make it unequivocally clear to the Iranians that the negotiations games have run their course.”
But there is precious little they can do about the situation. An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities will do relatively little damage but will end the prospect of a negotiated solution and make Tehran redouble its efforts to get nuclear weapons. President Obama is in no hurry to do the more thorough job the Americans are capable of. He seems satisfied that there is still time. The Iranians have in fact been slowing their accumulation of 20% enriched uranium by converting some of it to fuel plates for their isotope production reactor, which makes the material difficult to enrich further. The Israelis may not like it, but it looks as if everyone will hold their breath until after the Iranian election, when the question of further meetings and a possible agreement will arise again.
In the meanwhile, the Iranians will be watching North Korea closely. It has tested several nuclear weapons and presumably made more. Pyongyang is sounding committed not just to keeping them but to acquiring the missile capability to deliver them. While the press makes a great deal of Kim Jong-un’s threats against the United States, he represents a much more immediate threat to South Korea and Japan. If he manages to hold on to his nuclear weapons and thereby stabilizes his totalitarian regime, the Iranian theocrats will read it as encouragement to continue their own nuclear quest.
With the “sequester” budget cuts forcing retrenchment on many fronts, Washington is trying for negotiated solutions and hesitating to enforce its will that neither Iran nor North Korea acquire serious nuclear capabilities. It is hoping the Chinese will help with Pyongyang, which nevertheless seems increasingly committed to maintaining and expanding its nuclear capabilities. Tehran has slowed its accumulation of nuclear material but is expanding its technological capability to move rapidly if a decision is made to move ahead. President Obama could soon face a Hobson’s choice in both cases: either act militarily, despite the costs and consequences, or accept two new nuclear powers, despite the costs and consequences.
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The dogs of war: bark or bite?
Tension has been building for weeks on the Korean peninsula. Kim Jong-un has unleashed a string of threats against South Korea and the United States after conducting a missile launch in December and a nuclear test in February in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions. He gains domestic traction from this belligerence, something he no doubt needs after succeeding to the presidency last December at under 30 years of age. He also hopes for payoffs from the international community, which have been a common response to North Korean provocations in the past.
President Obama had been inclined to a low key response. The North Korean threats all too clearly aim at extorting aid and trade from the outer world. The President has said he won’t play that game.
Yesterday the Americans chose a different course: they advertised the flight of B2 stealth bombers from the United States that conducted a mock bombing mission at a range in South Korea. This was part of a military exercise the Americans and South Koreans regard as routine but the North objects to. The implication was clear: if the North attacks the South, the United States will assist in the military response.
This is just the tip of the iceberg. The best account I’ve heard of the rest of it is Tom Gjelten’s piece on NPR this morning. It makes clear that the United States has committed itself to joint, coordinated action with the South against the North, if the North attacks and the Americans are consulted and agree on the response. But the bottom line of the piece is that the North may be getting enough of what it wants from threatening to attack and therefore will not go through with it.
For the Americans, there is a great temptation here. Diplomatic efforts to block North Korea’s acquisition of nuclear weapons and longer-range missiles with which to deliver them have failed. It is now only a matter of a few years before North Korea acquires and deploys a serious nuclear arsenal. This, it figures, will deter efforts at regime change and ensure regime survival, nullifying both internal and external threats. A sufficient Northern military provocation could give the Americans a reason to strike at Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear infrastructure. While some of it is hardened, the US could conceivably set back the North’s efforts at least a few years. Someone might hope Iran would take heed too.
The failure of diplomatic efforts may make that attractive to some in Washington. Making it appear a real possibility might also be useful in rousing China to do its best to restrain the North Koreans. The last thing Beijing wants is an American air intervention next door, especially one that might generate large numbers of refugees.
The United States does not need a war on the Korean peninsula either. However it turns out–and there is never a guarantee that things go well in war–it would cause serious damage to relations with China and give the pivot to Asia–intended as a peaceful and diplomatic effort–an entirely different cast. South Korea also has a great deal to lose if things get out of hand: the North can unleash a frightening barrage of artillery on Seoul. Let’s hope the dogs of war are barking and not biting.
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Can Syria be saved?
I spoke yesterday on “Can Syria Be Saved” at the Italian Institute of International Affairs (IAI). I was honored at the last minute by Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs Staffan de Mistura, who joined the event and provided some comments. Here are the notes I used, amplified with Stefano’s comments and a bit of the Q and A:
1. The situation inside Syria
Military: The regime can clear, but less and less; the revolution can clear more and more. Neither can hold securely or build without the other being able to strike. This is the significance of air power and Scuds, which prevent consolidation of rebel control.
Civilian: The government is doing all right in areas that are loyal, but not gaining and under severe economic pressure. The revolution is unable to supply many areas outside government control and therefore unable to consolidate control and support.
2. Who is doing what outside Syria
There is no sign of the Russians or Iranians abandoning Assad, despite some change in Russian rhetoric. Russian arms supplies continue. Iranian forces are active within Syria, as is Hizbollah. Arms are flowing to the opposition, but unevenly and not always what they need.
The June 2012 Geneva communique, which provides for a fully empowered transition government approved by both the regime and the opposition, is still the only agreed diplomatic route. Brahimi is quiet, which is the best way to be until he has something definite. The Americans are exasperated but unwilling as yet to send arms. The naming of a prime minister this week should bring more civilian assistance, which is already topping $400 million from the US.
3. Why Obama hesitates to intervene more decisively, why Putin backs Assad
President Obama’s hesitation has little to do with Syria. He recognizes full well that a successful revolution there will be a blow to Iran and Hizbollah, but even an unsuccessful one is bleeding them profusely. The main issues for Obama are the Northern Distribution Network, which is vital for American withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the P5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran. He does not want to risk alienating the Russians on either front.
For the Russians, the main issues are no longer the port and arms sales, if ever they were. Now the question is one of prestige and power. Putin is defining his Russia in explicitly anti-Western terms, all the more so since what he portrays as Western trickery during the Libya intervention.
For Iran, the issue is an existential one. Loss of Syria would disable the connection to Hizbollah and isolate Iran from the Arab world, with the important exception of Iraq. This would be a big loss to a country that thinks of itself increasingly as a regional hegemon. The Islamic Republic would regard the loss of Syria as a big blow.
4. Options for the US and Europe
Britain and France are considering supplying weapons. That is unlikely to buy much allegiance. The best that can be hoped for is to strengthen relatively secularist and pro-Western forces, but that is going to be diffficult given the good military and relief performance of the Islamists, including those the US regards as extremist and even linked to Al Qaeda.
The US hesitates about arms transfers because of “fast and furious,” a US government scheme to track weapons transferred to the Mexican cartels. One of the weapons was used to kill an American border patrol agent. If an American-supplied shoulder-fired missile were to bring down a commercial aircraft, the incident would have major domestic political repurcussions.
Washington is instead focusing on enabling the civilian side, in particularly the newly named Prime Minister Ghassan Hitto and whatever interim government he cobbles together. This should certainly include ample humanitarian assistance and operating expenses.
It might also include military intervention, since the Hitto government won’t be safe inside Syria if Assad continues to use his air force and Scuds. The idea gaining ground outside the US administration is to destroy as much of that capability as possible while it sits on the ground. No one in Washington wants a no-fly zone that requires daily patroling. This is also a possible response to chemical weapons, whose possible use was mentioned during the IAI event but the facts were still very unclear (as they still are today so far as I can tell).
5. Possible outcomes and their implications
The fall of Bashar will be a beginning, not an end. It is not clear that the state structure in this Levant will hold. Lebanon is clearly at risk. You’ve got Kurds in Syria and Iraq who want to unite, in addition to an ongoing if somewhat sporadic Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey. You’ve got Sunnis in Iraq fighting in Syria who might eventually turn around and fight again in Iraq. You’ve got Alawites, Druze, Christians and others who will want to protect their own communities, isolated from others in enclaves.
Even if the state structure holds, there are big questions about the future direction of Syria. Will Islamists triumph? Of which variety? Will secularists do as badly in a post-war transition as they have in Egypt? The opposition in Syria agrees that the state should remain intact, but will it be able to under pressure from a “stay-behind” insurgency like the one that Saddam Hussein mounted in Iraq?
I also ran quickly through the options for post-war Syria that I’ve already published.
Staffan reacted underlining the importance of continuing to talk with the Russians, who are convinced that the intervention in Libya has opened the door to Al Qaeda extremism in Mali and Syria. He also underlined the importance of the opposition forming an inclusive and cohesive government that enunciates a clear plan for how to deal with the previous regime, including an exit for Bashar al Assad, and how to provide guarantees to the Alawites. He underlined that we should be putting together an international peacekeeping force now. We should not be tricked into international intervention by allegations of chemical weapons use.
I’ll stop my account there, as I’ve already gone on too long. It was a stimulating discussion. Many thanks to my hosts at IAI!
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Peace Picks March 18-March 22
A very busy spring break week in DC:
1. Overcoming Obstacles to Peace, Monday March 18, 10 AM- 11:30 AM, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington DC, B203-204
Speakers: James Dobbins, Laurel Miller, William Durch, Joe Collins
How can societies build enduring peace? This is a simple question that the international community has tried to answer from a variety of different perspectives and efforts. A new book, “Overcoming Obstacles to Peace,” finds evidence that international interventions can in fact build more peaceful nations. Using thorough research supported by metrics, authors James Dobbins and Laurel Miller of the RAND Corporation demonstrate how 16 out of 20 selected conflicts over the past 25 years affirm the international community’s role and effectiveness in building stable nations.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace and the RAND Corporation in this important discussion on March 18, 2013 from 10-11:30 AM at the U.S. Institute of Peace Headquarters.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/overcoming…
2. Obama to the Middle East: Expectations and Implications, Monday March 18, 12 PM- 2 PM, Washington Institute of Near East Policy
Venue: Washington Institute of Near East Policy 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washington, D.C. 20036, Stern Library and Conference Room
Speakers: Dennis Ross, Michael Singh,and David Makovsky
President Obama embarks on the first foreign travel of his second term next week, and despite talk of a tilt toward Asia and disengagement from Middle East wars, he is headed into the heart of the region, visiting Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank. To discuss why he is visiting the Middle East, what his priorities are for the trip, and what implications it may hold for such key policy issues as the Iran nuclear challenge, the worsening Syria crisis, and the Israeli-Palestinian stalemate, TWI will host a Policy Forum luncheon with Dennis Ross, Michael Singh, and David Makovsky.
Ambassador Dennis Ross is counselor to The Washington Institute. Previously, he served on the Obama administration’s National Security Council staff as senior director for the Central Region, responsible for U.S. policy toward the Middle East and North Africa.
Michael Singh, the Institute’s managing director, served in the George W. Bush administration as senior director for Middle East affairs on the National Security Council.
David Makovsky, the Institute’s Ziegler distinguished fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process, just returned from a trip to Israel and the West Bank.
3. Economic Turmoil in Arab Countries: Can Partners Help?, Monday March 18 12 PM- 1:45 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Marwan Muasher, Uri Dadush, Ibrahim Saif, Jean-Pierre Chauffour, Nemat Shafik
More than two years after the outbreak of democratic revolutions in several Arab countries, the economic situation in the region remains precarious. Progress in restoring confidence as well as sustainable and rapid economic growth will depend overwhelmingly on internal forces and the return of political stability. However, external partners can also play a role in helping normalize and eventually improving the underlying growth fundamentals of these economies. How will the Arab economic outlook evolve? What more can the United States and Europe-the region’s largest trading partners-do to support democratic transition and economic liberalization in the countries affected? What is the respective role of trade and aid?
Website: http://carnegieendowment.org/events/?…
4. The Insurgents: David Petraeus and the Plot to Change the American Way of War, Monday March 18 12:30 PM
Venue: Cato Institute 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001Hayek Auditorium
Speakers: Fred Kaplan, Spencer Ackerman, Janine Davidson, Christopher Preble
In “The Insurgents”, Fred Kaplan tells the story of how a small group of soldier-scholars revolutionized the United States military. Their aim was to build a new Army that could fight a new kind of war in the post-Cold War age: small wars in cities and villages, against terrorists and insurgents. These would be wars not only of fighting but of nation building, often not of necessity but of choice.
Kaplan describes how these men and women maneuvered their ideas about counterinsurgency – or COIN, for short – through the bureaucracy and made it official policy. But it is also a cautionary tale about how creative doctrine can harden into dogma, how smart strategists – today’s best and brightest – can win the battles at home but not the wars abroad. By adapting the U.S. military to fight the conflicts of the modern era, they also created the tools – and made it more tempting – for political leaders to wade into wars that they would be wise to avoid.
If you cant make it to the Cato Institute, watch this event live online at www.cato.org/live and follow @CatoEvents on Twitter to get future event updates, live streams, and videos from the Cato Institute.
Featuring the author Fred Kaplan, War Stories Columnist, Slate, with comments by Spencer Ackerman, National Security Correspondent, WIRED; and Janine Davidson, George Mason University; moderated by Christopher Preble, Vice President, Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute.
Website: http://www.cato.org/events/insurgents…
5. Ambassador Marc Grossman on the Campaign in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Monday March 18 3 PM-5 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Ambassador Marc Grossman, Jessica Tuchman Mathews
In his first public event since stepping down as special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Marc Grossman will discuss efforts to reach a political settlement and the future of American diplomacy in the region. Carnegie’s Jessica T. Mathews will moderate.
Website: http://carnegieendowment.org/events/?…
6.Afghanistan in Transition: A Trip Report, Tuesday March 19, 9:30 AM, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
Speakers: Anthony Cordesman
CSIS Burke Chair Anthony Cordesman will discuss his recent trip to ISAF headquarters in Afghanistan, and the prospects for a U.S. transition. This event will also launch the Burke Chair’s latest report, a complete analysis of the Afghan transition.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
9:30 am – 10:30 am EST
B1 Conference Center
CSIS 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006
Please click here to RSVP
Follow @CSIS for live updates
Note: You must log on to your CSIS account to register. If you do not have an account with CSIS, you will need to create one. If you have any difficulties, or do not receive ‘password reset’ emails, please contact imisadmin@csis.org
Website: http://csis.org/event/afghanistan-tra…
7. A Delegation of Syrian Opposition Leaders, Tuesday March 19 10:00 AM, National Press Club
Venue: National Press Club, 529 14th St. NW, 13th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20045, Zenger Room
Speakers: Haytham Manna, Rim Turkmani, Riad Drar Al-Hamood
A delegation of Syrian opposition leaders critical of President Bashar al-Asad, and which opposes foreign intervention and Saudi Arabian-backed ‘rebels’ in the current situation,
The speakers will discuss creating sufficient political momentum for a negotiated settlement to the present Syrian Crisis, and moving toward a democratic, secular future for the country.
Contacts:
National Press Club: PETER HICKMAN
301/367-7711 (c), 301/530-1210 (t), 202/662-7540 (NPC),pjhickman@hotmail.com
Speakers (Global Policy Forum):
DAVID GRANT
david67grant@gmail.com, 202/577-3145
MEL DUNCAN
mduncan@nonviolentpeaceforce.com, 651/245-8706
Website: http://www.press.org/events/delegatio…
8. Syria’s Humanitarian Crisis, Tuesday March 19 10 AM, US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Venue: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Constitution Avenue and 1st Street, NE, Washington, DC Room 419
Speakers: The Honorable Anne C. Richard, The Honorable Nancy E. Lindborg, Mr. Tom Malinowski
Website: http://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearing…
9. US Policy in the Middle East on the Verge of Obama’s Trip, Tuesday March 19 12 PM- 1:30 PM, Center for American Progress
Venue: Center for American Progress, 1333 H Street NW, 10th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20005
Speakers: Rudy deLeon, Martin Indyk, Bruce Jentleson
On March 20 President Barack Obama will arrive in Israel in the first part of a regional visit that includes the West Bank and Jordan. The President’s trip to the region comes at a time of change in Israel and the region. On his upcoming trip, President Obama will face a full slate of challenges and opportunities, including concerns over Egypt’s continued political transition, Syrias civil war, the unresolved Arab-Israeli conflict, and the threats posed by Iran.
Please join the Center for American Progress for a keynote speech by Sandy Berger, chair at the Albright Stonebridge Group and former national security advisor to President Bill Clinton, previewing President Obamas trip to Israel and the regional challenges that face him there. Following his keynote speech, Berger will join a panel discussion with Rudy deLeon, Senior Vice President for National Security and International Policy at CAP and former deputy secretary of defense, who just returned from a CAP delegation to Israel and the West Bank; Martin Indyk, vice president and director of foreign policy at Brookings and former assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs; and Bruce Jentleson, professor of public policy and political science at Duke University and an expert on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
As part of this event, the Center for American Progress will release findings from a report based on discussions with Israeli and Palestinian officials during a recent visit to the region by members of the National Security and International Policy team.
Website: http://www.americanprogress.org/event…
10. After the Withdrawal: The Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan (Part I), Tuesday March 19 1:00 PM, US House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC 2172 House Rayburn Office Building
Speakers: Seth G. Jones, Kimberly Kagan, Peter Bergen, Daniel S. Markey
Chairman Chabot on the hearing: “U.S. national security interests in South Asia are both dire and immediate. The 2014 withdrawal plan from Afghanistan is strategically risky and threatens to plunge Afghanistan into a state in which terrorists will once again thrive. At the same time, the U.S. relationship with Pakistan has deteriorated dramatically and falters over Pakistan’s involvement with terrorist organizations and the drone war in the tribal bad lands. While Islamabad claims U.S. and Pakistani interests can be brought into alignment, we must remain skeptical of its internal divergent interests that risk undermining U.S. interests, the relationship with India, and the chance for a stable, peaceful, and independent Afghanistan. This hearing is an important opportunity to examine the President’s hasty withdrawal plan from Afghanistan and evaluate how events in Pakistan over the next year may affect U.S. national security interests throughout the entire region.”
Chairman Ros-Lehtinen on the hearing: With President Obama’s announcement last month that the U.S. will draw down our forces in Afghanistan by the end of this year without a clear withdrawal plan, it is necessary to have a hearing that will examine the security implications of this decision and analyze the capacity of the Afghani and Pakistan government to address crime and corruption while ensuring secured territories in their countries. This is imperative particularly in light of recent inflammatory accusations made by Afghani leader Hamid Karzai which have further strained U.S. – Afghanistan relations and put our troops at greater risk. We must do everything we can to prevent al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and other extremist militants from taking over and undoing the efforts and sacrifices made by the U.S. and our allies for over a decade.
Website: http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/heari…
11. Iraq, 10 years later: A conversation with Senator John McCain, General Jack Keane, and Frederick W. Kagan, Tuesday March 19 3:30 PM- 4:30 PM, American Enterprise Institute
Venue: American Enterprise Institute, 1150 17th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Frederick W. Kagan, General Jack Keane, John Mccain
Ten years ago, the United States entered Iraq and in a few short weeks ended Saddam Hussein’s reign of tyranny. What followed — wild swings between victory and defeat, liberation and occupation — and ended with President Barack Obama’s decision to withdraw all US forces from Iraq in 2011, is likely to be a source of contention for years to come.
As we approach the anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq War, many questions remain: Is Iraq a success? What role will Iran and al Qaeda play in the vacuum left by the withdrawal of American forces? Were the war and the liberation of 25 million Iraqis worth the high price Americans paid in blood and treasure? Please join us as we reflect on a conflict that helped shape the beginning of the 21st century in American foreign policy. Senator John McCain will be joined by a panel featuring General Jack Keane (ret.) and AEI’s Frederick W. Kagan.
If you are unable to attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.
Website: http://www.aei.org/events/2013/03/19/…
12. Crisis in Syria: The US Response, Wednesday March 20 9:45 AM, US House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC2172 House Rayburn Office Building
Speakers: Robert S. Ford, Anne C. Richard, Nancy E. Lindborg
Chairman Royce on the hearing: “Unfortunately, we are watching conditions in Syria continue to deteriorate precipitously. The Assad regime has killed tens of thousands of Syrians. Millions more have been displaced or have fled to neighboring countries increasingly strained by their influx. This is a regional crisis. It’s time for the Obama Administration, which has struggled on Syria, to present and defend its policy on all fronts, including its humanitarian efforts. The Committee will focus on how the U.S. can best protect its vital national interests and effectively promote a stable and peaceful Syria.”
Website: http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/heari…
13.Changing Challenges for the Gulf States- A Panel Discussion, Wednesday March 20 12:00 Pm- 2: 00 Pm, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052Lindner Family Commons
Speakers: Christopher Davidson, Kristin Smith Diwan, Gwenn Okruhlik, Marc Lynch
Christopher Davidson, Reader in Middle East Politics, School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University
Kristin Smith Diwan, Assistant Professor, Comparative and Regional Studies, School of International Service, American University
Gwenn Okruhlik, President, Association for Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Studies
Moderated by:
Marc Lynch, George Washington University
Three leading political scientists will discuss the current challenges facing the Gulf States.
*A light lunch will be served.*
RSVP: tinyurl.com/a6tvn2m
Sponsored by the Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Website: http://www.elliottschool.org/events/c…
14. Hezbollah’s Strategic Shift: A Global Terrorist Threat, Wednesday March 20 1:30 Pm, US House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC2172 House Rayburn Office Building
Speakers: Will Fulton, Matthew Levitt, Roger Noriega
Chairman Poe on the hearing: “Next week, the TNT Subcommittee will bring together experts to discuss the evolution of Hezbollah. Hezbollah has historically been a terrorist organization whose activity has been isolated in the Middle East. Hezbollah is the puppet of Iran worldwide. Under the guidance of the Iranian regime, this jihadist group has expanded its reach and shifted its strategy to operate in virtually every corner of the world including Latin America and Europe. I look forward to hearing testimony about the relationship between Hezbollah and the Iranian regime, how this threat has grown in recent years, and what implications this dangerous alliance has for U.S. national security.”
Website: http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/heari…
16. The Muslim Brotherhood and the West, Wednesday, March 20 / 2:00pm – 4:00pm, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Venue: Reserve Officers Association, 1 Constitution Ave NE Washington, DC
Speakers: Lorenzo Vidino, Abdullah Bijad Alotibi, Joseph Braude, Sam Helfont
Few observers foresaw the Arab Spring, but it should not have surprised anyone that the Islamist movements the most organized movements in the Arab world became the main beneficiaries of the turmoil that ensued. Islamism, in its gradualist and pragmatic approach embodied by the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots worldwide, seems ready to reap the rewards of its three decades-old decision to abandon violence and focus on grassroots activities. This monumental change has created many concerns among liberals, religious minorities and, more generally, all non-Islamists in the countries where Islamists have won. In addition, Arab states ruled by non-Islamist regimes have expressed concern. The former worry that Islamist ideology even in its more contemporary, pragmatic form remains deeply divisive and anti-democratic, often at odds with their values and interests. The latter believe that on foreign policy issues, most of the positions of various Brotherhood-inspired parties are on a collision course with the policies of established regimes in the region.
In association with Al Mesbar Studies and Research Centre (based in the United Arab Emirates), the Foreign Policy Research Institute has just published as an E-Book The West and the Muslim Brotherhood After the Arab Spring, edited by Lorenzo Vidino. The book provides an overview of each of eight countries’ policies towards Islamism, including the United States, Britain, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, and Israel. In this program, Vidino highlights the key lessons of the volume, and comment is offered by Abdullah Bijad Alotibi and Joseph Braude.
Website: http://www.fpri.org/events/2013/03/mu…
16. The Petro-politics of Azerbaijan, Wednesday, March 20 / 2:00pm – 3:00pm, Institute of World Politics
Venue: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW Washington, DC
Speakers: Vilen Khlgatyan
This lecture is part of a series on the Intermarium, organized by the Kosciuszko Chair of Polish Studies at IWP.
Mr. Khlgatyan will discuss the role Azerbaijan’s oil and gas reserves have played in attracting the Oil Majors to the region, and how this in turn has helped and hindered Azerbaijan’s domestic and foreign politics. Moreover, with Azerbaijani oil reserves having hit their peak in 2010-2011, what does the future hold?
Vilen Khlgatyan is Vice-Chairman of Political Developments Research Center (PDRC), a virtual think tank based in Yerevan, Armenia.
He attended Webster University, where he double majored in International Relations and International Business, and graduated in Spring 2010. He spent a semester studying in Vienna, Austria, where he also attended OPEC and OSCE workshops.
His studies at IWP have focused on national security and the geopolitics of energy. He is writing his honors thesis on the ‘Geopolitics of Energy in the South Caucasus.’
Mr. Khlgatyan was a campaign staffer for Congressman Russ Carnahan of Missouri’s 3rd District, who sat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Important note: Attendance at all IWP events requires an RSVP in advance. In addition, prospective attendees must receive an e-mail confirmation from IWP indicating that seating will be available for them at the event. A government-issued ID that matches your name on the confirmed attendee list must be presented at the door for admission to any event. The use of photographic and/or recording equipment is prohibited except by advanced permission from IWP, the event organizer, and the speaker(s). IWP is a private organization; as such, all attendees are guests of the Institute.
Website: http://www.iwp.edu/events/detail/the-…
17. The Turkey, Russia, Iran Nexus: Driving Forces and Strategies, Wednesday, March 20 / 2:00pm – 3:30pm, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
Speakers: Bulent Aliriza, Jon B. Alterman, Andrew C. Kuchins, Stephen J. Flanagan
CSIS scholars will present the key findings of their 18 month project that has examined the forces and interests driving relations among Turkey, Russia, and Iran and the strategies that these governments are pursuing to manage differences and sustain economic and energy cooperation. They will also discuss how complex and often contradictory interactions among these three countries are shaping regional dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean, Caucasus, and Central Asia, as they have for centuries. The nexus of the three pairs of relations are also influencing each country’s dealings with the other two as well as with the United States, and are being whipsawed by recent events. Starkly differing policies toward the Syrian civil war and the Arab Spring have strained Ankara’s relations with Moscow and Tehran. Understanding these dynamics is essential to avoiding a wider war in the Middle East, renewed conflict in the Caucasus, and instability in Central Asia following the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan.
Please Click Here to RSVP online or email us at KissingerChair@csis.org.
(Note: You must log on to your CSIS account to register online. If you do not have an account with CSIS, you will need to create one. If you have any difficulties, or do not receive ‘password reset’ emails, please contactimisadmin@csis.org).
Website: http://csis.org/event/turkey-russia-i…
18. The Struggle for Democracy in Tunisia, Wednesday, March 20 / 2:30pm – 5:00pm, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: John Hopkins SAIS- Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036Kenney Auditorium
Webcast: This event will be webcast live beginning at 2:30pm ET on March 20, 2013 at www.usip.org/webcast.
Tunisia’s 2010-11 ‘Jasmine Revolution’ ignited a flame of political rebellion that quickly spread to Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain, and Syria. But as the ‘Arab Spring’ enters its third season, Tunisia’s struggle for democracy is beset by escalating ideological and even violent conflicts. What are the key challenges facing Tunisia? How can U.S. officials and nongovernmental organizations help Tunisians address mounting domestic and regional crises?
To discuss these and other questions, the United States Institute of Peace, Georgetown University, Johns Hopkins SAIS, and Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) are pleased to invite you to a public round-table featuring a delegation of prominent Tunisian political scientists on Wednesday, March 20, 2013 from 2:30pm to 5:00pm at SAIS. Members of the delegation will offer their perspectives on the situation and then participate in a frank question-and-answer session. We hope that you will be able to join us for this very special event.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/the-strugg…
19. Turkey’s Kurdish Question: A New Hope?, Wednesday, March 20 / 3:00pm – 4:30pm, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036Saul/Zilkha Rooms
Speakers: Kemal Kirisci, Aliza Marcus, mer Taspinar, Gnl Tol
Turkey’s approach to dealing with its Kurdish minority-the Kurdish question-at home and in the region is once again at a critical juncture. From the prospects for a new constitution to Ankara’s Syria dilemma, virtually all the pressing issues facing Turkey have a Kurdish dimension. After the failure of the ‘Oslo process,’ Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has initiated another round of negotiations, this time called the ‘Imrali process’ and directly involving the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan. The process has been challenging, but extremely cautious expectations and hopes are growing that the rejuvenated process will not succumb to the fate of the previous efforts at solving the Kurdish problem in Turkey.
Given past failures at dialogue and at finding a mutually-acceptable, peaceful, and democratic solution to the problem, how might the ‘Imrali process’ prove different? What do the Kurds of Turkey want? Is the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) ready to meet Kurdish demands? What is Erdogan’s objective? What are the regional implications? At a time when Syria is in turmoil and Iraqi is facing increasing domestic instability, is a major breakthrough possible?
On March 20, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings (CUSE) will host a discussion to explore these and other important questions related to Turkey’s Kurdish minority. Featured speakers include Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Ömer Taspinar, author and journalist Aliza Marcus, and Gönül Tol of the Middle East Institute. Brookings TUSIAD Senior Fellow Kemal Kirisci will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion. The event is part of the TUSIAD U.S.-Turkey Forum at Brookings. After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Participants can join the conversation on Twitter during the event using #FPKurds.
Website: http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~r/Broo…
20. What Should Obama do on North Korea?, Thursday, March 21 / 9:00am, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
Speakers: Victor D. Cha, Walter L. Sharp
Please join us for a Korea Chair Platform event with Victor Cha, Walter L. Sharp, and Joseph R. DeTrani. In the wake of the December 2012 missile launch and the February 2013 nuclear test, our distinguished panelists will share their views on the road ahead and what President Obama should do on North Korea. We hope you can join us!
To RSVP for this event, please email KoreaChair@csis.org.
The Korea Chair Platform is made possible by the generous support of Samsung Electronics America.
Website: http://csis.org/event/what-should-oba…
21. The Rise and Fall of Democracies and Dictatorships: New Perspectives on Democratic Governance, Friday, March 22 / 9:00am – 11:00am, Woodrow Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: Scott Mainwaring, Frances Hagopian, Steven Levitsky
Website: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the…
22. Mapping Egyptian Politics: Where Is Egypt Heading and What Does That Mean for the United States?, Friday, March 22 / 10:30am – 12:00pm, RAND Corporation
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC 2168 Rayburn House Office Building
Speakers: Jeff Martini, Michele Dunne, Samer Shehata, Anne Gearan
Despite widespread unrest, continued wrangling over the election law, and threats of an opposition boycott, Egypt is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in the coming months. Egypt’s transition has already been punctuated by a series of Islamist victories at the polls. In this session, three Egypt watchers will take a closer look at what past electoral performance and the current political context say about the Islamists’ strength in Egypt and what it means for the United States.
Website: http://www.rand.org/events/2013/03/22..
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Doing little and doing a lot
Iran and North Korea are the two big nuclear non-proliferation challenges of our day. Iran is moving to acquire a capability that will allow it to move quickly to nuclear weapons, should the Supreme Leader decide his country needs weapons he has declared immoral. North Korea has exited the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and conducted its third nuclear test, with implicit and explicit resentment and threats against the United States.* So what can be done?
Non-proliferation experts at the Carnegie Endowment have published a series of three short pieces saying “not much”: we should focus on preventing North Korea from proliferating nuclear technology to others, on understanding and defining deterrence in Asia and missile defense, and on strategic consultations with the Chinese.
That seems close to the Obama Administration’s conclusions. It has said the necessary minimum in response to the latest North Korean test, but it has done nothing to rouse American public concerns and seems content to let the echoes fade. President Obama himself has made it clear he will also do nothing to offer further carrots to Pyongyang, which in his view is a mistake previous administrations have made in hopes of moderating the North’s behavior.
The hermit kingdom will continue to be isolated, poor and belligerent. We can hope that the prospect of American retaliation will make it reluctant to use its nuclear weapons against anyone. Both South Korea and Japan are likely to continue to refrain from going nuclear, as doing so would cause them big problems (especially with China and the US).
So the hope is we may be able to adjust to North Korea’s nuclear status without too much difficulty. That is much less likely with respect to Iran. There are two big problems arising from Iran’s push for nuclear technology: proliferation in the region and Israel.
The Center for a New American Security thinks Saudi Arabia will not go for nuclear weapons if Iran does. The American experts on Saudi Arabia I talk to are split on this issue. Some think Riyadh will definitely go nuclear, likely buying weapons from Pakistan rather than establishing their own program. Others doubt that. The uncertainty itself is enough to make me think we need to worry more about the consequences of Iranian nuclear weapons than we do about North Korea’s.
More important: Israel. The Israelis view the Iranian theocracy as irrational. The Iranians view the Jewish state as irrational. There is minimal communication between Tehran and Jerusalem. Deterrence depends on rationality and good communications. If Iran were to make and deploy nuclear weapons, the Israelis would need to decide on a nuclear posture in response. They have a second strike capability (on submarines), but they cannot wait to launch on launch. A very few nuclear weapons would deal a devastating blow to tiny Israel. It would have to launch on warning.
This is inherently destabilizing and highly dangerous for Iran. My guess is the Israelis would not just launch against whatever they could see being prepared for launch, but against every nuclear weapons site they know about in Iran, and perhaps not only those. We are talking here about a massive Israeli nuclear strike, not the surgical strikes conducted against the reactors in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007. So Iran getting a nuclear weapons decreases Iranian security as much as it decreases Israel’s.
That ironically gives me some hope that Tehran will stop short of making and deploying nuclear weapons. But it has to do so in a thoroughly transparent and verifiable way. If the P5+1 negotiations with Tehran at the end of the month in Almaty do not take a big step in this direction (but some are optimistic), we could well be on the way to an American strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, one with dramatic consequences not only for the US and Iran but for the rest of the world as well.
*Have doubts about the threats to the US part? Watch this North Korean propaganda film (with gratitude to the Washington Post and North Korea News:
Transcript:
North Korea has succeeded in proceeding with this nuclear test despite the United States’ increasingly unfair bully activities against North Korea. That United States that has no respect to others nor appreciation to equality…
It is not incorrect to state that the United States strong hostility policy and endless violence toward North Korea in the past 70 years has helped North Korea become one of the world’s strongest military power states.
Words spoken by the United States, a country that uses the law of jungle as the law of survival for fitness, is meaningless. As a result, North Korea’s high level nuclear test conducted against American imperialist invaders is a nuclear deterrent that protects our sovereignty.
Thus, the United States has practically guided North Korea towards nuclear testing and therefore needs to be considered as an American virtue.
North Korea’s third underground nuclear test! Let it be known once more that this is strictly our practical counter-measure for North’s safety and to protect its sovereignty from the aggressors. It is also a solemn warning that time is no longer on the side of the United States.
The people are watching. America should answer.
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