Tag: Pakistan
This week’s peace picks
It’s a relatively light week for foreign policy events with all eyes focused on the US elections.
1. Political Shiism in the Arab World: Rituals, Ideologies, and Politics, Monday November 5, 9:00 AM – 11:30 AM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speakers: Jana al Horr, Solon Simmons, Terrence Lyons
Researchers and experts on Arab politics have often debated the role of political Shiism as a source of regional instability and conflict following the 2003 U.S-Iraq war. Some argue that the expansion of political Shiism in the Arab world is a quest for political leadership resulting from a long-standing conflict with Sunnis, coupled with centuries of Shiite political and economic marginalization. Other argue that political Shiism holds revolutionary elements that can be re-interpreted to fit any political context that Shiites perceive as threatening. This view perceives that Shiite religious elements can be made to fit the current needs of various political contexts and are the main drivers of political mobilization and ultimately conflict. Both these views offer a narrow and restricted description of political Shiism; hence, the literature on political Shiism lacks a systematic understanding of the phenomenon. To address this gap, the research asks the following questions: (1) What is political Shiism? Is it monolithic? What are its forms? And who are its ideologues?; and (2) How do Arab Shiites mobilize for political protests?
In order to answer these questions, the research provides an examination of rituals, ideologies, and speeches of political Shiism embedded in the historical and geographical context of the Arab region in specific, and the Middle East in general, during the last century. Following a combination of methodological approaches, the research will first examine the centrality of Ashura rituals and celebrations in political Shiism; second, the research will explore the plurality of political Shiism thought in the twentieth, its progression from quietism to activism, and the influence of regional politics on its development; third, through analyzing current speeches of Shiite leaders in Lebanon and Iraq, the research will shed light on contemporary political Shiism language, its themes that mobilize the masses, and its connection to past ideologues previously examined.
The research seeks to extend the debate over the forces of mobilization of political Shiism, and contribute to a more constructive and coherent understanding of Shiite political actions in the Arab world. It confirms that the transformation of political Shiism from quietism to activism can be traced back socio-political changes that occurred in the early twentieth century. Additionally, it identifies how conflict associated with political Shiism is not linked to the Sunni-Shiite schism. Instead, the divide between the Arab world and the West is at the heart of political Shiism. Furthermore, the research highlights the importance of Ashura in political Shiism, but it is the rituals coupled with local and regional political events that create mobilization.
One important contribution of the dissertation is that it offers an inside descriptive look into the formation of political Shiism, its main ideologues, and issues that distinguish political Shiism as one of the main forces for political mobilization in the Arab world. The research aims at providing a broader understanding of political Shiism to address the gaps that exist in the current literature, and offer a new way of thinking about this rising religio-political phenomenon.
2. The Challenge of Security Sector Reform in the Arab World, Monday November 5, 9:30 AM – 11:30 AM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speakers: Steven Heydemann, Robert Perito, Querine Hanlon, Daniel Brumberg, Manal Omar
If the first season of the “Arab Uprisings” brought hope, the second season has illustrated many hard challenges, not least of which is restructuring the military, policy and intelligence services of Arab states. Even in Tunisia, where the military played a crucial role in supporting the “Jasmine Revolution,” the ultimate loyalty of the security services remains an open question. To examine this issue, USIP will convene a panel of experts on Monday, November 5, 2012 from 9:30am-11:30am to discuss the institutional, economic and political challenges posed by the quest to remake security sectors into allies of pluralistic democratic change. Please join us for what promises to be a revealing and provocative discussion.
Register for this event here.
3. Turkey in the Middle East: Role, Influence, and Challenges, Monday November 5, 6:00 PM – 7:15 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Speakers: Omer Taspinar, Bulent Aliriza, Edward Skip Gnehm
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoan, Turkey is a major player in the Middle East. Turkey’s active involvement in the Syrian crisis, rivalry with Iran, and outspoken advocacy of Palestinian statehood place Turkey at the center of regional events. The panelists will examine Turkey’s rising role in the region, addressing regional opportunities as well as domestic politics.
Register for this event here.
4. Aiding Conflict: The Impact of U.S. Food Aid on Civil War, Tuesday November 6, 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, Hall of Government, 2115 G Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Kendrick Seminar Room, Room 321
Speaker: Nathan Nunn
This paper examines the effect of U.S. food aid on conflict in recipient countries. To establish a causal relationship, we exploit time variation in food aid caused by fluctuations in U.S. wheat production together with cross-sectional variation in a countrys tendency to receive any food aid from the United States. Our estimates show that an increase in U.S. food aid increases the incidence, onset and duration of civil conflicts in recipient countries. Our results suggest that the effects are larger for smaller scale civil conflicts. No effect is found on interstate warfare.
Register for this event here.
5. Post-Election Day Analysis – What Happened and What Comes Next?, Wednesday November 7, 10:00 AM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Attendance by webcast only.
Speaker: Benjamin Wittes, William A. Galston, Robert Kagan, Thomas E. Mann, Isabel V. Sawhill
This year’s presidential and congressional elections are likely to be close—perhaps very close. They will have a profound impact on the nation’s future course in both the domestic and foreign policy spheres. The outcome of the November 6 election will raise important policy and political questions: What was key to the winning presidential candidate’s success, and what do the results reveal about the 2012 American electorate? In what direction will the new administration take the nation? What might a lame duck Obama administration and Congress look like—and how will the negotiations over the fiscal cliff proceed? What will be the congressional dynamics? What are the incoming administration’s policy prospects during the 113th Congress? And what are the consequences for U.S. foreign policy?
On November 7, the Campaign 2012 project at Brookings will host a final forum analyzing the election’s outcomes and how these results will affect the policy agenda of the next administration and Congress. Panelists will discuss the approach of the incoming administration, the political makeup of the new 113th Congress and the prospect for policy breakthroughs on key social, fiscal and foreign policy issues.
After the program, panelists will take questions from the audience. Participants may follow the conversation on Twitter using the hashtag #BI2012.
6. Syria: The Path Ahead, Thursday November 8, 9:30 AM – 11:30 AM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Saul/Zilkha Room
Speakers: Daniel L. Byman, Michael Doran, Salman Shaikh
As the Syrian conflict approaches its twentieth month, fears are mounting that Bashar al-Assad’s regime may stay in power or that Syria will collapse into sectarian war. An enduring conflict in Syria will have far-reaching consequences for the region, could threaten key U.S. partners, and may require urgent decisions. Has the struggle for democracy in Syria been lost? Is there more the United States could do to influence events there? What steps could the international community take to prevent strife and sectarianism from spreading throughout the region?
On November 8, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will explore these and other questions about the conflict in Syria. Panelists Mike Doran, the Roger Hertog senior fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, and Director of the Brookings Doha Center Salman Shaikh, appearing by video conference, will discuss policy options for the U.S. and international community, with a focus on Shaikh’s recently authored paper, “Losing Syria (And How to Avoid It).” Daniel L. Byman, senior fellow and research director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will moderate the discussion.
Participants can follow the conversation on Twitter using hashtag #SavingSyria. After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Register for this event here.
7. Ending Wars Well: Order, Justice, Conciliation, Thursday November 8, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Berkeley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs
Venue: Berkeley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs, Georgetown University, 3307 M Street, Washington, DC 20007, Suite 200
Speakers: Eric Patterson, Timothy Shah, John P. Gallagher
Why don’t wars “end well?” From Rwanda to Colombia to Afghanistan, it seems that modern wars drag on and on, with terrible costs for civilians and their neighbors. In his new book, Ending Wars Well, Berkley Center Senior Research Fellow Eric Patterson argues that just war principles can provide a framework for bringing wars to modest yet enduring conclusions. More specifically, he criticizes grandiose peace schemes that are not rooted in the realities of security and political order. In contrast, he proposes a model that begins with investment in Order as a practical and moral imperative. This provides a foundation for Justice (e.g. punishment, restitution) and Conciliation in unique situations.
Patterson uses Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, East Timor, the Camp David Accords, and the US Civil War as test cases for this model. The Berkley Center’s Timothy Samuel Shah will moderate Patterson’s discussion with LtCol John Gallagher, a former West Point professor and current staff officer to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Register for this event here.
8. Anti-Extremism Laws in Russia, Pakistan, and China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Thursday November 8, 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM, Freedom House
Venue: Freedom House 1301 Connecticut Ave. NW 4th Floor Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: David Kramer, Virab Khachatryan, Peter Roudik, Aleksandr Verhovsky, Laney Zhang
Freedom House is pleased to host a roundtable with the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom on the anti-extremism legal frameworks in China, Pakistan, and Russia. Moderated by Freedom House President David Kramer, the on-the-record roundtable will provide an opportunity for participants to engage experts and authors of The Law Library of Congress’s report Legal Provisions on Fighting Extremism. The participants will compare and contrast the differing approaches to anti-extremism laws in China, Pakistan, and Russia. The round table comes at an important time as repressive regimes are developing anti-extremism laws and implementing them in broad terms to suppress criticism.
Register for this event here.
9. Afghanistan 2014: What Happens Next? A Discussion with the Former Ambassador of Afghanistan Said Tayeb Jawad, Thursday November 8, 7:30 PM – 9:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Henry Harding Auditorium, Room 213
Speaker: Said Tayeb Jawad
Delta Phi Epsilon Professional Foreign Service Sorority and the Afghan Student Association proudly present “Afghanistan 2014: What Happens Next? A Discussion with the Former Ambassador of Afghanistan, Said Tayeb Jawad.” The Ambassador will discuss the future of Afghanistan with the scheduled U.S. withdrawal and the 2014 Afghan elections.
Register for this event here.
10. Cyber as a Form of National Power, Friday November 9, 5:00 PM – 6:30 PM, Institute of World Politics
Venue: The Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Samuel Liles
Dr. Samuel Liles is an associate professor at Purdue University West Lafayette in the Computer Information Technology Department of the College of Technology where he teaches computer forensics. Dr. Liles is a faculty member with CERIAS at Purdue University. CERIAS is known as the premier multidisciplinary academic center in information security and assurance, and has produced nearly half of the PhD graduates in that field in the US over the last 15 years. Previously he was a professor in the Information Resources Management College at The National Defense University in Washington DC, and prior to that the Computer Information Technology Department at Purdue University Calumet. As a researcher his interest is in cyber warfare as a form of low intensity conflict has had him presenting to audiences world-wide. Samuel Liles completed his PhD at Purdue University primarily studying cyber conflict, issues of cyber conflict, information assurance and security, and cyber forensics.
RSVP for this event to kbridges@iwp.edu.
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A sad commentary, even if my man won
It’s hard to write more than 140-character tweets about last night’s “foreign policy” debate. Governor Romney lined up behind President Obama on almost all current policy issues. He even liked foreign assistance, gender equality, democracy promotion and diplomatic efforts to end Iran’s progress toward nuclear [weapons?] capability. Not to mention their agreement on drones, sanctions, withdrawal from Afghanistan and support for Israel. And they agreed that America’s strength abroad depends on the health of its economy and educational system at home. We’ve got a bipartisan foreign policy, whether we like it or not.
The real problem is that the Ryan budget, which Romney supports, is not aligned with what the Governor advocated. This is particularly clear on foreign aid, which the Ryan budget guts. I realize this is a wonkish concern, but it is also a real one. Priorities not reflected in budget proposals are not real priorities. We can be sure that a Romney presidency would not do what Romney says, because he would not fund it. He would prefer a massive military buildup, on top of the massive military buildup of the past ten years.
The disagreements last night were almost entirely about past events. Romney wanted to leave many more troops in Iraq than Obama and blames the president for the failure to reach a status of forces agreement. The fact that the Iraqis were not willing to bend on legal jurisdiction over the Americans remaining went unmentioned. By the way: the issue is not “immunity,” as most of the press would have it. American troops remain liable in U.S. courts for criminal acts committed abroad, even if the “receiving country” agrees to waive its jurisdiction. The administration resisted tightening Iran sanctions, until of course it no longer resisted because it thought the timing right.
If you want to check the facts, the Washington Post offers a good rundown. I don’t think there was much advantage or disadvantage in the errors, though it is a bit troubling that Romney does not know that Syria does not border Iran, which has ample routes “to the sea.” I wish Obama had not exaggerated the increase in exports to China. The numbers are pretty good without embellishment.
I agree with Peter Beinart: George W. Bush won this debate. Both Obama and Romney defined American foreign policy purely in military terms. This is a serious misreading of the challenges we face as well as the instruments needed to meet them. While pointing repeatedly to problems like Mali’s Islamist insurgency, Iran’s nuclear program, Pakistan’s failing state and Egypt’s economic deterioration, neither talked about the civilian instruments required to resolve them. Diplomacy, foreign aid, international law enforcement, multilateral financial and other institutions simply don’t register on the presidential level, even with my preferred candidate. That itself is a sad commentary on what we call foreign policy, bipartisan or not.
PS: Here is a Voice of America piece I participated in before the debate:
PPS: And here is the piece KSA2 (an English-language Saudi station) did the night of the election:
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This week’s peace picks
There are many options this week, including several with a focus on the approaching US elections.
1. Iraq Energy Outlook, Monday October 22, 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 Conference Room
Speakers: Fatih Birol, Jabir Habeb
The CSIS Energy and National Security Program is pleased to host Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist and Director of Global Energy Economics at the IEA, to present highlights from the IEA’s recent World Energy Outlook Special Report, the Iraq Energy Outlook.
Iraq is already the world’s third-largest oil exporter. It has the resources and intention to increase its oil production vastly. Contracts are already in place.Will Iraq’s ambitions be realised? And what would the implications be for Iraq’s economy and for world oil markets? The obstacles are formidable: political, logistical, legal, regulatory, financial, lack of security and sufficient skilled labour. One example: in 2011, grid electricity could meet only 55% of demand.
The International Energy Agency has studied these issues with the support and close co-operation of the government of Iraq and many other leading officials, commentators, industry representatives and international experts. The report examines the role of the energy sector in the Iraqi economy today and in the future, assesses oil and gas revenues and investment needs, provides a detailed analysis of oil, gas and electricity supply through to 2035, highlighting the challenges of infrastructure development and water availability, and spells out the associated opportunities and risks, both for world oil markets and for Iraq’s economy and energy sector.
RSVP for this event to energy@csis.org.
2. Religion, Violence, and Coexistence, Monday October 22, 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Speakers: Suzan Johnson Cook, Haris Tarin, Marc Gopin, Manal Omar, Susan Hayward
The Internet release of a trailer for the anti-Islam film “The Innocence of Muslims” recently sparked protests around the world, some of which turned violent. These events serve as a stark reminder of the relationship between freedom of expression, religious coexistence, religious freedom, violence and security.
On October 22, 2012, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) will host a panel discussion about civil society’s role in preventing and addressing provocative statements of religious bias and violent responses to it. The panelists will discuss the complementarities and tensions between the freedoms of expression and religion, use of the media in fomenting religious discrimination, and how to work with the media to promote respect for all religious traditions. The conversation will focus on how these issues are playing out in the context of political transitions occurring throughout the Middle East and North Africa, and the way in which civil society and the U.S. government can collaborate constructively to advance peaceful religious coexistence, freedom, and security.
This public discussion is co-sponsored with the Office of International Religious Freedom at the U.S. Department of State.
Register for this event here.
3. Adaptable Autocrats: Regime Power in Egypt and Syria, Monday October 22, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM, Woodrow Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004, 6th Floor
Speaker: Joshua Stacher
Why did the uprisings in Egypt and Syria turn out so differently? In his recent book, Adaptable Autocrats, Joshua Stacher argues the different outcomes are a product of how executive power flowed before the protests began. While popular mobilization challenged both regimes, Egypt’s Mubarak could be replaced as the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) slid into the executive’s role to adapt the system, while the option of changing the ruling coalition still has not occurred in Syria. Based on years of field research in Egypt and Syria, Stacher lays out a template for understanding the Arab uprisings and the turmoil that has followed.
Register for this event here.
4. AFSA Book Notes: “America’s Other Army”, Monday October 22, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, American Foreign Service Association
Venue: American Foreign Service Association, 2101 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speaker: Nicholas Kralev
“America’s Other Army” brings the high-flying world of international diplomacy down to earth and puts a human face on a mysterious profession that has undergone a dramatic transformation since September 11, 2001. Through the stories of American diplomats, the book explains how their work affects millions of people in the United States and around the world every day, and how it contributes directly to U.S. security and prosperity. It shows a more inclusive American diplomacy that has moved beyond interacting with governments and has engaged with the private sector, civil society and individual citizens. Having visited more than 50 embassies and interviewed about 600 American diplomats, author Nicholas Kralev reveals a Foreign Service whose diversity and professional versatility have shattered old perceptions and redefined modern diplomacy. But he also depicts a service not fully equipped to address the complex challenges of the 21st century.
RSVP for this event to events@afsa.org.
5. Book Discussion: Powerful Peace: A Navy SEAL’s Lessons on Peace from a Lifetime at War, Monday October 22, 6:00 PM – 7:00 PM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 A/B Conference Room
Speakers: J. Robert DuBois, Rick “Ozzie” Nelson
“Nowhere is the cost of failure higher than in the life-and-death struggle of armed conflict. Now J. Robert Dubois harnesses that real-world sense of wartime urgency to guide our search for solutions to challenging problems. He takes on a crucial and unprecedented mission for a retired Navy SEAL: the relentless pursuit of interpersonal and international peacekeeping as an imperative to global security. A treatise for policy makers and warriors, mediators and educators, Powerful Peace is also a compelling and practical guide to problem solving for every engaged citizen.” Please join the CSIS Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program on the evening of October 22 for a discussion with J. Robert DuBois regarding his new book, Powerful Peace, as well as his insights into the importance of peacemaking at the global and personal level.
Register for this event here.
6. Decision 2012: The Foreign Policy Debate, Monday October 22, 8:00 PM – 11:00 PM, George Washington School of Media and Public Affairs
Venue: GW School of Media and Public Affairs, 805 21st Street NW, Washington DC, 20052, Jack Morton Auditorium
Speakers: Doug Wilson, Richard Engel, Anne Gearan, Susan Glasser, Noah Shachtman
Join us at the Jack Morton Auditorium for pre-debate insight from four of America’s most respected and experienced national security correspondents — and immediately following, for the final presidential debate.
7:30 PM – 8:00 PM Reception
8:00 PM – 9:00 PM Panel Discussion
9:00 PM – 10:30 PM Debate Watch
10:30 PM – 11:00 PM Analysis and Closing Remarks
Register for this event here.
7. Connecting to Diaspora Communities Through Web Portals: Opportunities and Limitations, Tuesday October 23, 9:00 AM – 10:00 PM, QED Group
Venue: QED Group, LLC, 1250 Eye Street NW, Washington, DC 20005, Suite 1100
Speakers: Eric Guichard, Molly Mattessich
Diaspora communities have played a longtime role in the development of their countries of origin in areas as diverse as business development, financial investments, philanthropy, volunteerism, advocacy, etc.
For instance, the amount of money diaspora communities send to their home countries as remittance far exceed that of official development aid. In 2010, the globally recorded amount in remittance flows to developing countries was $325 billion and the World Bank estimates that amount to reach an estimated $404 billion a year by 2013. Regionally, African diaspora communities contribute an estimated $40 billion in remittances annually to the continent. Similarly, philanthropy from the US to developing countries was estimated at $39 billion in 2010 by the Index of Global Philanthropy and Remittances.
These staggering amounts have triggered a change in recent years among the formal donor community as diaspora communities are increasingly recognized as a credible and meaningful contributor to development. Given the significant contribution of diaspora communities, a key issue facing the donor community has become how to engage and partner effectively with diasporas? In this area of technological hyper-development, web portals have become omnipresent in any development venture and diaspora-driven development is not different. This seminar will present two such portals—Homestrings, a private investment platform, and Africa Rural Connect , an online global philanthropic network—and examine their effectiveness in engaging diasporas in development.
Register for this event here.
8. Applying Peace Economics in Dangerous Places, Tuesday October 23, 10:00 AM – 12:30 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speakers: Jurgen Brauer, J. Paul Dunne, Clare Lockhart, Todd Moss, Raymond Gilpin
Creating a sound economic policy and a stable macroeconomic framework is essential to societies recovering from violent conflict, yet few practitioners have the background needed to apply economic concepts effectively. USIP’s new publication titled “Peace Economics: A Macroeconomic Primer for Violence-Afflicted States” provides a concise but broad overview of practical ways that sound macroeconomic fundamentals could be used to build stability in states that are affected by violent conflict.
The discussion extends beyond economic principles into the wider realm of social reconstitution, social contract, and social capital. Co-authors, Jurgen Brauer and J. Paul Dunne, examine recent case studies and illustrate the applicability of concepts presented in the book.
Register for this event here.
9. National Security Challenges from an Israeli Perspective, Tuesday October 23, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM, Heritage Foundation ****THIS EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.
Venue: Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington, DC 20002, Lehrman Auditorium
Speakers: Yossi Baidatz, Steven P. Bucci
Israel, long America’s closest ally in the Middle East, faces growing national security challenges from Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and various radical Islamist groups that have flourished during the so-called “Arab Spring.” The collapse of Egypt’s Mubarak government, Syria’s intensifying civil war and growing strains inside Jordan have added greater uncertainty to an already volatile region. Iran continues to make substantial progress in enriching uranium for a nuclear weapon, as well as expanding its arsenal of ballistic missiles, some of which can reach Israeli targets. Iran also has transferred increasingly sophisticated rockets to Hezbollah and Hamas, each of which has used them to bombard Israeli civilians.
Please join Major General Yossi Baidatz, Commandant of the Israeli National Defense College, as he offers his insights in assessing Israel’s security environment and the important role of US-Israeli security cooperation.
Register for this event here.
10. The Political and Economic Implications of the Palestinian Authority’s Fiscal Crisis, Tuesday October 23, 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Building Auditorium
Speakers: Robert Danin, Khaled Elgindy, Oussama Kanaan, Hussein Ibish
The Middle East Institute’s George and Rhonda Salem Family Foundation and the SAIS Conflict Management Program are proud to host Robert Danin, Khaled Elgindy, and Oussama Kanaan for a discussion about the fiscal crisis facing the Palestine Authority and the political implications of the PA’s deteriorating economic situation. In mid-September, the IMF and the World Bank issued a report saying that the Palestinian financial crisis will worsen unless foreign funding increases and Israel eases restrictions on economic activity. Neither solution looks imminent and protests in response to the economic hardships have turned into an indictment of President Mahmoud Abbas’s policies, raising questions about the future of the PA’s leadership. Danin, Elgindy, and Kanaan will examine the economic and political fallout stemming from the latest crisis and explore the role of the international community in finding a way out.
Register for this event here.
11. The Rise of Extremism in Greece and Its Impact on Minorities, Tuesday October 23, 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM, United Macedonian Diaspora
Venue: United Macedonian Diaspora, 1510 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005, Suite 900
Speakers: Archimandrite Nikodim Tsarknias, Sali Bollati, Stacy Burdett, Eugenia Natsoulidou, Sevin Elekdag
European Union member-state Greece is home to Macedonian and Turkish minorities, with sizeable Albanian, Roma and migrant populations and religious communities such as Catholics and Jews. Known as the cradle of democracy, Greece has seen a significant democratic deficit especially towards its minorities. Recently, the Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn), the Greek neo-Nazi political party, which denies the Holocaust ever occurred, has risen in popularity, given the deepening economic crisis in the country. The right wing extremist group has secured 18 seats – 9 percent of the total – in the Greek parliament against a backdrop of increased anti-Semitic and xenophobic rhetoric throughout the country.
Is the rise of extremism in Greece a new phenomenon or embedded within Greek society? What does this mean for the minority communities of Greece?
Greece chaired the OSCE in 2009, and now is vying for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council. In July, the EU appointed as its first Special Representative for Human Rights, the previous Greek Foreign Minister Stavros Lambrinidis.
RSVP for this event to tgzirishvili@umdiaspora.org.
12. Jordan in the Crosshairs, Tuesday October 23, 6:00 PM – 7:15 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Speakers: Marwan Al-Muashar, Curtis Ryan, Edward Skip Gnehm
Although the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has so far weathered the region’s political upheaval, rising domestic unrest combined with regional pressure stemming from the Syrian conflict pose serious challenges to Jordan’s stability. The panelists will discuss the internal and external pressures shaping Jordan’s contentious political process, assessing the prospects of political reform and potential for greater unrest.
Register for this event here.
13. Fortress Israel: The Inside Story of the Military Elite Who Run the Country – and Why They Can’t Make Peace, Wednesday October 24, 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Patrick Tyler
Former Washington Post and New York Times reporter Patrick Tyler speaks about his new book “Fortress Israel: The Inside Story of the Military Elite Who Run the Country–and Why They Can’t Make Peace.”
RSVP for this event to info@fmep.org.
14. Foreign Policy and the Presidential Election: A Post-Debate Analysis, Wednesday October 25, 4:30 PM – 5:30 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Falk Auditorium
Speakers: Martin Indyk, Susan Glasser, Robert Kagan, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, Suzanne Maloney, Bruce Riedel
With just two weeks to go before the U.S. election, President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney will engage in their final presidential debate on Monday, October 22. In this next debate, the candidates will focus on a wide range of foreign policy issues, including the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, U.S. counterterrorism efforts, the Iran crisis, and U.S.-China relations. Given the tone of the Obama-Romney town hall meeting and the critical U.S. and global security issues on the agenda, the foreign policy debate promises to be equally intense.
On October 24, Foreign Policy at Brookings, in association with Foreign Policy magazine, will host a discussion on the issues raised during the next presidential debate. Susan Glasser, editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine, will moderate the panel, which will include Brookings Senior Fellows Robert Kagan, Suzanne Maloney, Kenneth Lieberthal and Bruce Riedel. Brookings Vice President Martin Indyk will offer opening remarks.
After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Please register for this event here.
15. Human Rights Perspectives on American Elections: Free or Fair?, Thursday October 25, 12:00 PM – 1:20 PM, AU Washington College of Law
Venue: AU Washington College of Law, 4801 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20016, WCL Room 602
Speakers: Patrick Merloe, Marcia Johnson-Blanco, Hadar Harris
What does it mean to have ‘free and fair elections,’ and will the 2012 elections in the United States be free and fair? The Center for Human Rights & Humanitarian Law and the Program on Law & Government will host a discussion on international standards of free and fair elections as viewed from a human rights perspective, and examine how these standards apply to election policy in the United States. Specific topics will include human rights-related issues emerging in domestic and international elections, such as transparency, fairness of process, the right to political opinion, and the right to participate in government. Speakers will also address the current obstacles to full enfranchisement in the upcoming U.S. elections, such as voter identification laws and restrictions on early and absentee ballots. This event will feature Patrick Merloe, Senior Associate and Director of Electoral Programs of the National Democratic Institute, and Marcia Johnson- Blanco, Co-Director of the Voting Rights Project of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. The discussion will be moderated by Hadar Harris, Executive Director of the Center for Human Rights & Humanitarian Law.
RSVP for this event to humlaw@wcl.american.edu.
16. Women After the Arab Awakening: Making Change, Thursday October 25, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Saul Room/Zilkha Lounge
Speakers: Tamara Cofman Wittes, Lina Ahmed, Marianne Ibrahim, Randa Naffa, Souad Slaoui
Women played an integral role in the Arab uprisings, and the continued empowerment of women will be critical to the emergence of democracy in the region. Gender rights and women’s equality are among the most consequential and controversial issues facing newly elected governments across the Arab world. Some fear that the election of Islamist parties will turn back the clock on women’s rights, but others see more open politics as a new opportunity for efforts to achieve equality in the Arab world. How has the Arab awakening affected the women of the region? How are activists and politicians seeking progress for women in this uncertain and evolving landscape?
On October 25, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, with Vital Voices Global Partnership and the Project on Middle East Democracy, will host activists from Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan who are advocating for women’s rights in a variety of ways: combating child marriage, working to repeal gender-discriminatory laws, promoting gender equality in the new Egyptian constitution, and protecting the rights of women workers. Brookings Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion.
After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Register for this event here.
17. Playing with Fire: Pakistan at War with Itself, Thursday October 25, 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Suite 605
Speaker: Pamela Constable
Pamela Constable, Foreign Correspondent and Former Deputy Foreign Editor, The Washington Post
RSVP for this event to security@gwu.edu.
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This week’s peace picks
It’s a busy week with a focus on peacebuilding and subjects that parallel key issues in the presidential debates, like foreign policy in the next administration and violence at embassies.
1. Talking to the Taliban, Monday October 15, 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 400
Speakers: Anatol Lieven, Peter Bergen
Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program for a conversation with award-winning author Anatol Lieven. He will discuss his talks in July with figures close to the Taliban and the views they expressed on the contours of a possible peace settlement.
Officials recently dismissed the possibility of securing a political deal to end the conflict in Afghanistan, a longtime keystone of the American military strategy in Afghanistan, saying their goal now is to leave Afghanistan with the best tools possible for maintaining security and political stability. After 11 years of war, has the conflict budged at all in either the coalition’s or the insurgents’ direction? Lieven and Bergen will discuss this question, as well as the likelihood of different future scenarios for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Register for this event here.
2. The European Union and International Organizations in a Time of Crisis, Monday October 15, 5:30 PM – 7:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons
Speaker: Francois Rivasseau, Romuald Sciora, Harvey Feigenbaum
Mr. Rivasseau will discuss the relationship between the EU and other international organizations, such as the UN, NATO, the World Bank, and the IMF, during this time of crisis. He will also assess the place of the EU in the new global order.
Register for this event here.
3. Religion, Culture, and Interpretations of Democracy: Implications for Peacebuilding, Tuesday October 16, 9:30 AM – 11:30 AM, United States Institute of Peace
Venue: United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speakers: Marc Gopin, Mohammad Abu-Nimer, James Patton, Juliette Schmidt
The final meeting of the three-part series on democracy and conflict will reflect on the influence of religion and culture on interpretations of democracy around the world and the implications for peacebuilding and conflict prevention. Political parties, civil society actors, church leaders, as well as western governments and donors are all participating in the process of building and maintaining democracies in post-conflict settings. This distinguished panel will discuss specific factors that play a role in the perception and development of democratic institutions in different parts of the world, and their relationship with sustainable peace.
Register for this event here.
4. Realism, Idealism & the Politics of Obama’s Foreign Policy, Tuesday October 16, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Georgetown University
Venue: Georgetown University, Mortara Building, 3600 N Street NW, Washington, DC 20057
Speakers: James Mann, Tom Hamburger
Author and former Los Angeles Times correspondent Jim Mann will discuss his latest book, The Obamians, with Tom Hamburger, a member of the National Staff of the Washington Post. They’ll talk about politics and foreign policy, and the current presidential campaign. James Mann is a Washington-based author who has written a series of award-winning books about American foreign policy and about China. Mr. Mann is a former newspaper reporter, foreign correspondent and columnist who wrote for more than twenty years for the Los Angeles Times. He is now an author-in-residence at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Tom Hamburger joined The Washington Post’s national desk in 2012 after working for more than eight years in the Los Angeles Times’ Washington bureau as a reporter specializing in the intersection of money and politics in the nation’s capital. He has covered the White House, Congress and the courts and has written extensively about lobbying, campaign finance and corruption at all levels of government. A finalist for the Pulitzer Prize in 1996, he worked previously for The Wall Street Journal, the Minneapolis Star Tribune and the Arkansas Gazette.
Register for this event here.
5. Is Al-Qaeda Defeated? An Experts’ Debate, Tuesday October 16, 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 400
Speaker: Peter Bergen, Thomas Lynch III, Thomas Joscelyn, Bill Roggio, Reuel Gerecht
In Collaboration with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
While some counterterrorism analysts and officials say that U.S. military efforts over the past 11 years have resulted in the defeat of al-Qaeda, others argue that the terrorist organization is more durable than that. The successes won by the CIA drone program in Pakistan’s tribal regions and the symbolic killing of Osama bin Laden might be tempered by the growing strength of al-Qaeda’s affiliates in countries such as Yemen, Somalia, and Libya. On the other hand, many point out that al-Qaeda has failed to carry out a large-scale terrorist attack in the United States since 9/11.
With the Taliban toppled in Afghanistan, hundreds of militants killed in U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, and the death of bin Laden last year, has the United States come to the end of the “War on Terror”? The New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program and the Foundation for Defense of Democracies invite you to a lively debate on whether or not we have seen the defeat of al-Qaeda. Peter Bergen, the director of New America’s National Security Studies Program, and Col. Thomas Lynch III, a Distinguished Fellow at National Defense University, will argue for the motion that al-Qaeda is defeated. Foundation for Defense of Democracies Senior Fellows Thomas Joscelyn and Bill Roggio will argue against the motion.
Register for this event here.
6. Transforming Terrorism and Radicalism with Muslim Nonviolent Alternatives, Tuesday October 16, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Speakers: Qamar-ul Huda, Chaiwat Satha-Anand, Ayse Kadayifci-Orellana
The violent and nonviolent protests around the Muslim world regarding the anti-Islamic film, “Innocence of Muslims,” have reinvigorated the debate over the prevalence of nonviolent practices in Islamic communities. With religious extremists and zealous secularists posing serious threats to societies, it is critically important to examine the ethos of pluralism, peacebuilding activities, and the culture of sustainable peace in conflict zones in Muslim-majority countries.
Please join us for a conversation with Dr. Chaiwat Satha-Anand, a prominent nonviolent activist and scholar from Thammasat University in Bangkok, Thailand, on the subject of transforming radical extremism with principles of nonviolence action. Has the rise of extremist voices weakened principles of nonviolence and moderation in Muslim communities? Are moderate Muslims capable of defeating extremism with nonviolent practices of tolerance, social justice, and education? Dr. Satha-Anand will explore these and other questions.
USIP’s efforts in the Middle East and larger Muslim world have aided in developing the capacity of civil society actors in peacebuilding and conflict management. Whether it be a peace education curriculum for madrasas in Pakistan, or an inter-faith mediation center in Nigeria, or a gender peacebuilding training toolkit in Iraq, USIP’s on-the-ground field work and research aims to resolve conflicts through nonviolent means.
Register for this event here.
7. Waging War on Corruption – Inside the Movement Fighting the Abuse of Power, Tuesday October 16, 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Founders Hall, 3351 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22201, Room 125
“The Arab Spring was the trigger that prompted me to finally start writing a book that Ihad long been thinking about – a book that aims to change the conversation about one of the gravest problems facing most countries: corruption in government. I have been involved in civil society organizations dedicated to fighting corruption for more than 20 years and seen remarkable progress in this period. The achievements have been formidable. It is time to convert discussion about the prospects of curbing graft and bribery from one of skepticism, indeed cynicism often, to one of cautious optimism and hope. The upbeat conclusion of this book rests, above all, on the remarkable – often exceptionally courageous – work of many heroes in many countries, from the civil society activists on the front lines, to the public prosecutors, investigative journalists, outstanding political leaders and former leaders of the United Nations and World Bank, “think tank” academics, and philanthropists. I believe individuals do change history. The heroes in this book are changing history. But, all of the work of these remarkable people would be in vain without massive public engagement. In the Arab Spring we saw tens of thousands of people overcome fear of vicious security forces to go into the streets and the town squares in the name of their personal dignity and self-respect and to protest illegitimate governments. The valor seen in Tunisia and Egypt, replicated in many countries now, represents a tipping point in the fight against the abuse of office by politicians and government officials for their personal enrichment. And, the anti-corruption movement, which overlaps so closely with efforts to promote human rights, protect journalists and build democracy, has been enormously powered in most recent times by the Internet in a hyper-connected age of transparency where the villains haveever fewer places to hide. I believe that if more people are made aware of the progress being seen in many countries today in the war on corruption then that in itself will further power vital efforts for reform and improve the human condition. This book does not minimize the challenges. The anti-corruption movement has reached base camp, but still has an Everest of corruption to climb. But for the skeptics, let me say bluntly there is a powerful momentum now in campaigns for transparency, accountability and justice and, as I note in the final line of the book, it is important for people now to stand on the right sideof history.” ~Frank Vogl, September 2012.
8. The Middle East: Policy Choices for the New Administration, Wednesday October 17, 9:30 AM – 12:00 PM, Rayburn House Office Building
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20515
Speakers: Paul Pillar, Scott McConnell, Jocelyne Cesari, Nathaniel Kern, Thomas R. Mattair
The Middle East Policy Council invites you and your colleagues to our 70th Capitol Hill Conference. Live streaming of this event will begin at approximately 9:30am EST on Wednesday, October 17th and conclude around noon. A questions and answers session will be held at the end of the proceedings. Refreshments will be served.
RSVP for this event to info@mepc.org.
9. Understanding Iranian Public Opinion, Wednesday October 17, 9:00 AM – 11:00 AM, Stimson
Venue: Stimson, 1111 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Twelfth Floor
Speakers: Ebrahim Mohseni, Steven Kull, Geneive Abdo, Sebastian Grafe
In the midst of bombastic rhetoric exchanged among Iran, Israel, and Western states over the nuclear issue, Iranian public opinion is often lost in the discussion. Where do the Iranian people stand? Iranian public opinion is seldom heard on topics such as the nuclear program, international sanctions, and a potential military strike.
Please join Heinrich Böll Stiftung North America and Stimson for a discussion of Iranian public opinion. Drawing on polls from numerous sources, including recent surveys conducted inside Iran, as well as polls conducted by calling into Iran, the speakers will analyze Iranian attitudes on the country’s nuclear program, nuclear weapons, international sanctions, and a potential military strike. The discussion will also focus on how sanctions and military threats have shaped Iranian opinion toward their own government and the West.
Register for this event here.
10. Bringing Peace Through Facilitated Dialogue: A Book Launch, Wednesday October 17, 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Speaker: Daniel Serwer, Rusty Barber, Colette Rausch, David Smock
Today’s international conflicts typically involve multiple actors, interests, and drivers that have sparked long, violent histories. Ending these conflicts relies more and more on facilitated dialogue, a process in which a neutral third party helps a broad spectrum of conflicting parties overcome the many barriers to effective communication.
Facilitating Dialogue: USIP’s Work in Conflict Zones, edited by David Smock and Daniel Serwer, presents seven case studies of the U.S. Institute of Peace’s facilitated dialogue efforts in Iraq, Kosovo, Israel/Palestine, Colombia, Nigeria, and Nepal. Covering a variety of conflict situations and peacemaking efforts, the cases tell stories of peacebuilding successes, efforts in progress, limitations on what can be achieved, and lessons learned.
This workshop will present samples of the chapters in the book and a summary of lessons learned. Facilitating Dialogue: USIP’s Work in Conflict Zones will be available for purchase at this event.
Register for this event here.
11. Pedagogies for Peace in Post-Conflict and Fragile States, Thursday October 18, 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Speaker: Margaret Sinclair, Jeff Helsing, Xanthe Ackerman, Qamar-ul Huda, Lili Cole
What kind of curricula promote the best education for long-term peace in post-conflict, fragile and low resource contexts? Many kinds of primary and secondary school curricula aim to promote social cohesion, greater tolerance and recovery from violence. But until recently we have had little research on the different benefits of various curricula in different types of conflict, or on how they can be used together most effectively, and on whether these curricular approaches need to be sequenced temporally after conflict, and if so, how.
In May 2012, Education Above All, a Doha-based education group, commissioned papers from practitioners and thematic experts that map and analyze the most widely used of these different curricula, collectively designated as “education for global citizenship,” and the policies that have accompanied their implementation. A major finding of this research project was that “transformative education for local, national and global citizenship and peace CAN be implemented even under difficult conditions if there is a policy commitment to do so.” To explore this important issue, the project director, technical adviser and expert on conflict and education, Margaret Sinclair, will discuss these research findings with experts from the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Brookings Institution.
Through its Academy for Conflict Management and Peacebuilding, research by Senior Fellows, and projects supported by grants, USIP has considerable experience in the creation of citizenship, human rights, history and peace curricula, including peace curricula specifically designed for use in Muslim religious schools, or madrasas, most recently in Sudan, Iraq and Pakistan. Two USIP staff members, Lili Cole and Qamar-ul Huda, contributed essays to Education for Global Citizenship.
Young people between the ages of fifteen and twenty-four represent nearly one-fifth of the population of the Middle East and North Africa. This group has played a central role in shaking up the old order, and while so far they have not been able to shape the policies of the new regimes, it remains key to the outcome of transitions in the region. A Generation on the Move, a study cosponsored by The Issam Fares institute at the American University in Beirut and UNICEF, offers important insights on the aspirations and problems of Arab youth. The study includes polling data that reveals further information about this demographic.
Register for this event here.
13. US-Pakistan Relationship Post-2014, Thursday October 18, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM, Center for National Policy
Venue: Center for National Policy, One Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001, Suite 333
Speakers: Stephen Tankel and Timothy Hoyt
U.S.-Pakistani relations have been defined by a curious mixture of antagonism and cooperation. Even before the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan was involved in the illegal proliferation of nuclear technology and support for militant Islamist organizations. Since 9/11, the bilateral relationship has rested on occasional cooperation against al-Qaeda, while being severely strained by state support for the Taliban, Haqqani Network and other militants at war against the Afghan state and the U.S.-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).
With the ISAF mission drawing down to a close by the end of 2014, what is the future of this troubled relationship between “frenemies?” Will relations improve as the strain of the Afghan campaign diminishes? Or will the U.S. more openly express its bitterness once its military is no longer reliant on supply routes that pass through Pakistan? Will Pakistani support for terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba persist? There are factors that may only further radicalize the Pakistani security services following an ISAF drawdown such as the potential for renewed civil war and Indian “meddling” in Afghanistan. How will these affect relations with the United States?
Register for this event here.
14. Reality Diplomacy: How Ambassadors Deal with Crime and Corruption Abroad, Thursday October 18, 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Founders Hall, 3351 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22201, Room 113
Speakers: Richard Kauzlarich and Kenneth Yalowitz
For American business operating abroad, crime and corruption are realities of doing business internationally that must be avoided. The risk is that companies end up on the wrong side of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Further in many cases they need the help of US Embassies to avoid having to deal with corrupt host government officials. For non-official Americans living abroad, the facilitative payment to the traffic cop who arbitrarily stops their car to check papers, or to the border guard to speed up clearance of their household effects through customs is simply a small price to pay in societies that seem to operate on different standards of public service than Americans are used to. For students and academics, crime and corruption are political and sociological phenomena to be sliced and diced in the classroom and in scholarly articles as impediments to good governance to be eliminated through establishing independent judiciaries and democratically-elected legislatures passing the right sort of laws. Ambassadors Kenneth Yalowitz and Richard Kauzlarich, retired Senior Foreign Service Officers, have dealt with crime and corruption in countries where US foreign policy and national security objectives are at risk through the interaction criminal and corrupt official behavior. What can Ambassadors do when confronted with this nexus of crime and corruption while trying to accomplish a broad set of US political, economic and security priorities? Ambassadors Kauzlarich and Yalowitz will discuss their professional experiences in this regard and provide lessons-learned that will underscore the importance of better understanding how the intersection of terrorism, transnational crime and corruption represents a major non-traditional security challenge for the United States in the 21st Century.
15. Next Steps in Reducing Nuclear Arms, Friday October 19, 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Falk Auditorium
Speakers: Martin S. Indyk, Michael O’Hanlon, Steven Pifer, Strobe Talbott
As the 50th anniversary of the Cuban missile crisis approaches, nuclear arms control has received scant attention in the current U.S. presidential campaign. Yet the future of arms control has major implications for U.S. national security, and no matter who is elected on November 6, the next president will have an opportunity to use arms control to enhance domestic and global security. In their new Brookings Focus Book, The Opportunity: Next Steps in Reducing Nuclear Arms (Brookings Press, 2012), Brookings Senior Fellows Steven Pifer and Michael O’Hanlon make a strong case for further steps in nuclear arms control, explain in clear and straightforward prose the background to complex arms control issues, and offer practical and realistic proposals for action by the administration in 2013 and beyond.
On October 19, the Arms Control Initiative and 21st Century Defense Initiative at Brookings will host a discussion to explore the possibilities for next steps on arms control and place them in a broader foreign policy context. They will relate the issues to the Pentagon’s budget situation and the longer-term vision of trying to move to a world without nuclear weapons. Pifer and O’Hanlon will be joined by Brookings President Strobe Talbott. Vice President Martin Indyk, director of Foreign Policy at Brookings, will moderate the discussion.
After the program, panelists will take audience questions. Copies of The Opportunity: Next Steps in Reducing Nuclear Arms will be available for sale at the event.
Register for this event here.
16. European and US Perspectives on Bosnia and Herzegovina, Friday October 19, 12:00 PM, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies
Venue: American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, 1755 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Suite 700, R.G. Livingston Conference Room of AICGS
Speakers: Dominik Tolksdorf
Please join AICGS on Friday, October 19, 2012, for a seminar with Mr. Dominik Tolksdorf, DAAD/AICGS Fellow, on “European and U.S. Perspectives on Bosnia and Herzegovina.” The discussion will take place at 12pm in the R.G. Livingston Conference Room of AICGS, 1755 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Suite 700. A light luncheon will be served.
Transatlantic cooperation in Bosnia can generally be considered as strong. However, diverging views have become apparent in the past years. The future role of the international community in the country and of the Office of the High Representative is especially debated. However, the U.S. and the EU do share a common interest in supporting constitutional reform in Bosnia. The seminar will focus on the roles of the European Union and the U.S. in Bosnia in the past years and transatlantic efforts to reform the Dayton system.
Dr. Dominik Tolksdorf holds a PhD from the University of Munich. In his dissertation he examined the European Union’s support to reform processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since 2006, he has worked as research fellow at the Center for Applied Policy Research (CAP) at the University of Munich, as senior associate researcher at the Institute for European Studies, and as adjunct assistant professor at Vesalius College at the Vrije Universiteit Brussels. In his research, he focuses on the EU’s external relations, including the pre-accession process with the western Balkan states and Turkey, EU neighborhood policies, and the structure of the External Action Service.
Please register by Wednesday, October 15.
Please register for this event here.
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Is there a political solution in Afghanistan?
Allison Stuewe writes:
The members of yesterday’s panel hosted by the Middle East Institute believed that a political solution is desirable but concluded nevertheless that the question of whether or not one is possible is harder to answer than it seems. The panel was more inclined to raise additional questions than provide definitive answers.
Marvin Weinbaum of the Middle East Institute, the event’s moderator, introduced some of the questions: Is a political solution possible? Are there incentives that would facilitate an agreement among all interests involved in the Afghan conflict? What will the U.S. or other participants in the peace process have to sacrifice to reach a negotiated solution? Has the opportunity for productive U.S. involvement in conflict resolution passed? Or should we still be pushing for a political solution? Are we failing to see the possibilities? Will U.S. government efforts to find a political solution be viewed in the region as a gesture of desperation for an easy exit?
Ambassador Omar Samad, previously Afghanistan’s ambassador to France and Canada and currently a senior fellow at the United States Institute of Peace, structured his presentation around two questions that must be addressed in the peace process. First, he asked, what is the Afghan conflict? Is it an insurgency, civil war, or proxy-driven conflict? Is it about resources, ethnicity, geopolitical rivalries, anti-terrorism, or historical narratives? From the Afghan perspective, which looks at the conflict with history in mind, it is all of these.
In the 1960s, the country was stable, with a constitutional and democratic order. The communist coup and subsequent Soviet invasion ended three generations of peace and destroyed the government, infrastructure and human capital while killing over a million Afghans. The U.S.-backed resistance was successful in defeating the Soviets, but when the Soviets left and the United States lost interest, a void remained. Radical Islam thrived. As it became clear an agreement would not be reached between the powers that emerged after the Soviet defeat, the interests of external players became more pronounced. Pakistan and Iran had their own political agendas and used Islamic extremism to achieve their own ends.
9/11 was a game changer. The tragedy showed the world that there are consequences to ignoring conflict in Afghanistan. Previous mistakes should not be repeated in the current attempt at conflict resolution. The Bonn Agreement creating what Arif Rafiq, scholar at the Middle East Institute, views as a consociational government pointed in the right direction. There are divisions between Afghans based on ethnicity, language, and religion, but these divisions are shallow and reflect only part of Afghanistan’s history. Ambassador Samad believes there is an Afghan national identity, history and sense of belonging to the same state. It is unlikely that Afghanistan will collapse. What it needs is an inclusive political system.
Ambassador Samad’s second question was about the meaning of a “political solution.” Does this mean an intra-Afghan, regional, or international solution? From the Afghan perspective, all three are critical to ensuring future stability. A peace plan must be Afghan-inspired and include input from regional interests, but these imperatives will be hard to accomplish without international support. There will be a transition in 2014 when President Karzai concludes his term and much of the United States and NATO presence is withdrawn. We have between now and the end of 2014 to address security issues, ensure citizens will be able to vote, plan for legitimate elections, and invite the Taliban to participate in politics as equal citizens of the Afghan state.
Shamila Chaudhary of the New American Foundation (but previously at the National Security Council) contributed a former policymaker’s perspective.
American politics have hindered the search for a political solution. At the beginning of the war, the U.S. treated the Taliban and al-Qaeda as essentially the same terrorist organization and refused to negotiate on principle. We know now that there were divisions in the Taliban even over the 9/11 attack and that the U.S. government ignored some of what might have been indications that Taliban members were willing to talk. The military’s “fight, talk, build” strategy has made negotiation difficult. Congress is angry that it has not been consulted more. Despite Administration efforts, many members are unwilling to acquiesce to two Taliban requests: the transfer of Guantanamo detainees associated with the Taliban and the recognition of a Taliban office outside of Afghanistan. The rise in “green-on-blue” attacks, the Taliban attack on Camp Bastion in September and last year’s attack on the Embassy Kabul have made negotiation with the Taliban harder for the Americans, who won’t be able to engage seriously until after the U.S. election.
The second obstacle Chaudhary identified was Pakistan. Pakistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar spoke in Washington last month, clarifying Pakistani goals: an Afghan-led political solution that is satisfactory to Islamabad, no further destabilization in the border areas and the return of Afghan refugees still residing in Pakistan. Pakistan is in a bind because it does not have sufficient Afghan partners to guarantee these interests. Pakistan wants to curb pro-Indian sentiment and block moves towards an independent Pashtunistan in the border areas. Islamabad relies heavily on the Haqqani network, a group associated with the Afghan Taliban that could turn on Pakistan at any time. A productive agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan would include acceptance of the Durand line, limits on India’s security presence in Afghanistan and assurances that the border areas will not become an anti-Pakistan, pro-Indian hotspot.
Arif Rafiq thought a political solution possible but was pessimistic about the likelihood of one happening. He listed many reasons for his doubts: the Bonn framework is slowly unraveling. President Karzai, once respected as a leader from a prominent family, is now a divisive figure. Though he has said he will step down as planned, it appears he is working to consolidate his power and choose a successor who will allow him to continue to influence politics. He faces real challenges: Mullah Muhammad Omar’s Afghan Taliban does not want Karzai to be a part of peace talks and the opposition National Front not only opposes President Karzai but also envisions a constitutional overhaul to establish a federalized parliamentary democracy.
The surge is over and it did not accomplish what it set out to do. The Afghan army is not ready to take over primary security responsibility for the whole country. If anything, the surge emboldened militia groups and resulted in a huge influx of weapons. The insurgency is alive even if fragmented (there are divisions between Mullah Omar’s Taliban and Gulbiddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-i-Islami). The Taliban did not participate in the Bonn talks of December 2011. “Exploratory” talks among the Taliban, President Karzai and the U.S. have been on hold since March. There is no indication that Mullah Omar’s Taliban intends to participate in elections. The NATO-led coalition of the willing is fraying.
Rafiq did note some reasons for optimism. The U.S. helped build a functioning, if not fully effective, Afghan parliament . Pakistan needs the U.S. presence in Afghanistan to limits cross-border risks. It might be possible to exploit splits in the Taliban, some of whom are looking for the international legitimacy they lacked when they ruled most of Afghanistan. Most Afghans reject the emirate that the Taliban advocate.
The panel agreed time is running out. Political transition in Washington, Islamabad and Kabul is eating into the time available. Despite the Taliban’s motivations and goals, all participants noted that any political solution has to be open to all citizens. A political solution requires an Afghan state that balances the center and periphery and meets the bottom line goals of the neighbors and the major international powers. It is not going to be easy to solve this equation.
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This week’s peace picks
Though Americans are focused on domestic politics, there are interesting events this week dealing with a variety of national and international issues.
1. U.S. Public Opinion Toward Arabs and Islam: How “The Video Incident” May Affect U.S.-Muslim Relations, Monday October 8, 10:30 PM – 12:00 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Falk Auditorium
Speakers: Tamara Cofman Wittes, William A. Galston, Hisham Melhem, Shibley Telhami
A provocatively offensive film and violent demonstrations protesting it have once again roiled the relationships between Americans, Arabs and Muslims. In both the United States and the volatile transition states of North Africa, popular reactions have been swift, severe and complicated by domestic politics. But beyond the partisan scorekeeping and the loudly raised voices, how have these recent events changed the way the American public views Arab and Muslim communities? Within the emerging democratic Arab states, how has the furor over the video altered the public debate regarding freedom of speech, civil liberties and other constitutional rights? Finally, how are these issues examined within the context of religious expression, pluralism and tolerance—values that are central to American identity?
On October 8, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World at Brookings will host a discussion on these questions and unveil a new University of Maryland public opinion poll examining attitudes just days after violence erupted in Libya and elsewhere in the Middle East. The poll, conducted by Nonresident Senior Fellow Shibley Telhami, gauges American public attitudes toward Arabs and Muslims and toward U.S. foreign policy in the region. Panelists include Brookings Senior Fellow William A. Galston, the Ezra K. Zilkha chair in Governance Studies; Hisham Melhem, Washington bureau chief of Al Arabiya News; and Telhami, principal investigator of the poll and the Anwar Sadat chair for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland. Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will moderate the discussion.
Participants can follow the conversation on Twitter using hashtag #USArabViews. After the program, panelists will take audience questions.
Register for this event here.
2. Is There a Political Solution to the Afghan Conflict?, Tuesday October 9, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, SEIU Building
Venue: SEIU Building, 1800 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Omar Samad, Shamila Chaudhary, Arif Rafiq, Marvin Weinbaum
With the military involvement of the U.S. and its NATO allies winding down in Afghanistan, there have been stepped up efforts to explore the possibility of reaching reconciliation with the insurgency. Some officials and independent observers have cited positive signs of interest on the part of the Taliban in a power-sharing arrangement. Others have questioned the Taliban leadership’s interest in pursuing a settlement or if the objective conditions exist for concluding an agreement. At stake is whether Afghanistan will be faced after 2014 with continued fighting that tests the mettle of its security forces in what could become a brutal civil war, or can be stabilized with a political solution that is inclusive and satisfies the country’s various ideological and ethnic groups.
Register for this event here.
3. Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan, Tuesday October 9, 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM, American Security Project
Venue: American Security Project, 1100 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005, Suite 710W
Speakers: Matt Freear, Nick Lockwood, David H. Young, Joshua Foust
Join us for a fact-based discussion with leading experts on counterinsurgency. As the war in Afghanistan comes to a close, the US strategy is focusing on the transition to Afghan security responsibility. We will discuss how the transition is proceeding, how counterinsurgency has evolved and what to expect from the local Afghan security forces.
RSVP for this event to events@americansecurityproject.org.
4. America’s Other Army: The U.S. Foreign Service and 21st Century Diplomacy, Tuesday October 9, 6:00 PM – 7:00 PM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006, B1 Conference Room
Speakers: Nicholas Kralev
Kralev has been given unprecedented access to the inner sanctum of American diplomacy in Washington and around the world. Also the author of Decoding Air Travel: A Guide to Saving on Airfaire and Flying in Luxury, Kralev will be speaking on his latest work- America’s Other Army. He will share behind-the-scenes insights on how the work of American diplomats affects the daily lives of millions of people around the world, and examine whether the Foreign Service is equipped to address the challenges of the 21st century.
Register for this event here.
5. Youth Bulge, Public Policy, and Prospects for Peace in Pakistan, Wednesday October 10, 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Speaker: Abiodun Williams, Moeed Yusuf, Edward Rhodes, Mehtab S. Karim, Nasim Zehra, Saleem Ranjha, Eric Manes, Mohsin Khan, Philip Auerswald, Ammar Anees Malik, Asad Majid Khan, Andrew Wilder, Ifran Malik, Kalsoom Lakhani, Shamila Chaudhary, Peter Stearns, M Nizamuddin, Jack Goldstone
Pakistan has been in the limelight since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. While there has been plenty of it, the debate and policy analyses on the country have focused on the immediate concerns linked to extremism and terrorism. Yet, questions about the long term economic, political, and social health remain just as critical and will ultimately determine whether Pakistan stabilizes as a medium sized, stable, and moderate country or presents itself as a ticking time bomb that is a constant source of worry for the world. No other agent of change will be more relevant in this regard that the country’s bloated youth cohort.
It is surprising that for all the talk about Pakistan’s importance, very little is said or written about its upcoming generation. This is despite the fact that over 110 million of the 180-odd million Pakistanis today are under the age of 29 of whom over 50 million are classified as youth between ages 15-29. Their political preferences, their role in national development, and the avenues for Pakistan to accrue the demographic dividend are hardly understood. Given that this segment of Pakistani society will ultimately determine the country’s destiny, with its attendant impact on internal and regional peace and security, this is an obvious void that needs to be filled.
The School of Public Policy at George Mason University (GMU) and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) are jointly organizing a one-day conference focusing on the Pakistani youth, public policy options, and the prospects for peace in the long run. The conference will feature a group of leading experts, including young Pakistanis and Pakistani-Americans who will discuss the role of Pakistani youth in national development, the role of education in youth development, outlook of young Pakistani Americans towards Pakistan, and how all of these factors can contribute to peace.
6. Arab Transitions to What?, Wednesday October 10, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons
Speakers: Eva Bellin, Tamara Wittes, Daniel Brumberg, Marc Lynch
Three leading political scientists will discuss the political transitions in the Arab World since the region’s uprisings. A light lunch will be served.
Register for this event here.
7. Countering Radical Narratives through Cooperation with Pakistani Civil Society, Wednesday October 10, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, Heritage Foundation
Venue: Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington, DC 20002, Lehrman Auditorium
Speakers: Hedieh Mirahmadi, Mehreen Farooq, Knox Thames, Lisa Curtis
Rising extremism in Pakistan has drawn attention to the need for engagement with moderate Muslim networks and civil society organizations that can effectively counter radical narratives and decrease the pool of recruits for militant organizations. In Pakistan’s Civil Society: Alternative Channels to Countering Violent Extremism, the World Organization for Resource Development and Education (WORDE) argues that over the last decade, U.S. policymakers have focused most of their attention on engaging with government, military, and intelligence establishments, to the exclusion of civil society actors.
Calling for renewed engagement between the United States and Pakistan’s vibrant civil society, the report offers a comprehensive study based on in-depth fieldwork in 35 cities and villages across Pakistan and interviews with over 100 civil society activists, former militants, jirga members, and religious scholars. The report concludes that traditional Muslim networks buffer the rise of extremist activity and offers suggestions how U.S. policymakers and the Pakistani American community can help rebuild U.S.-Pakistan relations by actively supporting these networks.
Join us for a launch of this groundbreaking report by two of the report’s authors as well as commentary by a leading expert on religious freedom issues in Pakistan.
Register for this event here.
8. Democratic Crisis in Sri Lanka: The Threat to Rule of Law in South Asia’s Oldest Democracy, Wednesday October 10, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, East-West Center
Venue: East-West Center in Washington, 1819 L Street NW, Washington, DC, Sixth Floor Conference Room
Speakers: Saliya Pieris
The defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam by the Sri Lankan government, ending thirty years of war, has resulted in relative peace after decades of terrorism, violence, and destruction. However Sri Lanka’s years of civil war, coupled with systematic attacks on its democratic institutions by successive governments, has placed what was once one of Asia’s model democracies at risk; jeopardizing the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary and the freedom of its people. These developments have not gone unnoticed. In March 2012 the United States successfully introduced a resolution at the United Nations Human Rights Council expressing its concerns about the situation—a move which was strongly criticized within Sri Lanka.
In this seminar, Saliya Pieris will seek to explain how developments in Sri Lanka, beginning with the executive Presidential Constitution in 1978 and tracing through the war with Tamil militant groups and its after-effects, have contributed toward the serious rule of law challenges faced by the country today. Among these challenges are the issues of enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrests and detentions, suppression of the opposition, and the breakdown of national institutions such as the legislature, the judiciary and the free media. Mr. Pieris will discuss the role that can be played by the government and the people of Sri Lanka, and the international community, including the United States and India, to reverse this threat and establish strong rule of law in Sri Lanka.
Register for this event here.
9. Model, Resource or Outlier? Does it Matter? – What Effect Has the U.S. Constitution Had on the Recently-Adopted Constitutions of Other Nations?, Thursday October 11, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Heritage Foundation
Venue: Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington, DC 20002, Lehrman Auditorium
Speakers: Istvan Stumpf, Jeremy Rabkin, Ron Rotunda, Emilia Versteeg, Edwin Meese III
The United States Constitution, the world’s oldest written design of government, was a novel political development in the 18th Century. No nation previously had adopted a written instrument to create and limit its national government. But it has been more than 200 years since our Constitution (and the Bill of Rights) came into being. Numerous other nations have adopted their own written organic political instruments since then. Have those nations looked to the U.S. Constitution as a model or a resource for their own constitutions, or has the U.S. Constitution become an outlier in the world? If the latter, what does that say about the structure and substance of our Constitution and how it is considered in the international community?
Register for this event here.
10. The Politics of Identity in Tajikistan, Thursday October 11, 3:00 PM – 5:00 PM, Rethink Institute
Venue: Rethink Institute, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002, Suite 1125
Speaker: Nuriddin T. Shamsov, Marlene Laruelle, Vladimir Fedorenko, Bayram Balci
In the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan faced enormous challenges while trying to forge a new Tajik identity. It inherited dysfunctional and obsolete political and economic institutions that were not suited to deal with new challenges of a multiethnic society, religious extremism, and civil disorder. Tajikistan’s current identity issues and social cleavages are the very products of this difficult transformational era. So, what does it mean to a be a Tajik national nowadays? This panel aims to address this question and shed light into identity-building process in Tajikistan.
Register for this event here.
11. Arab Youth: A Look at the Future, Thursday October 11, 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Dalia Mogahed, Marina Ottaway, Rami Khouri, Vivian Lopez
Young people between the ages of fifteen and twenty-four represent nearly one-fifth of the population of the Middle East and North Africa. This group has played a central role in shaking up the old order, and while so far they have not been able to shape the policies of the new regimes, it remains key to the outcome of transitions in the region. A Generation on the Move, a study cosponsored by The Issam Fares institute at the American University in Beirut and UNICEF, offers important insights on the aspirations and problems of Arab youth. The study includes polling data that reveals further information about this demographic.
Register for this event here.
13. The Ayatollah’s Nuclear Gamble: the Human Cost of Military Strikes against Iran’s Nuclear Facilities, Friday October 12, 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM, Atlantic Council
Venue: Atlantic Council, 1101 15th Street NW, Washington, DC 20005, 11th Floor
Speakers: Khosrow B. Semnani, Barbara Slavin, Haleh Esfandiari
Khosrow Semnani will present the findings of his new report, “The Ayatollah’s Nuclear Gamble,” which offers a detailed, scientific discussion of the human and environmental consequences of a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. The report and the discussion will highlight a largely overlooked issue in the intensifying public debate in the United States over the wisdom of using military force to try to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Register for this event here.
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