Tag: Russia
Earthquakes and balloons need diplomacy
The earthquakes that have devastated parts of southern Turkey and northern Syria have already killed upwards of 25,000 people and made millions homeless. The spy balloons the US has been shooting down represent a far less immediate threat to human welfare. But it is the latter, not the former, that are attracting the most attention in Washington.
The balloons
The balloons are certainly not extraterrestrial. We know enough about other planets and moons in our own solar system to be sure there are no civilizatiions nearby capable of deploying them. Other solar systems are too far away to transport objects to ours, unless they possess technology far more advanced than our own. They wouldn’t be using balloons if that is the case.
So the balloons come from another country, most likely China. Whatever its purposes, if Beijing is the originator it has certainly managed to unite Washington as an adversary. It is difficult to picture that the data the balloons gather are worth the price. China’s satellites and its spies in the US should be capable of similar data collection, though perhaps at a higher price. Why would China, which is swimming in money, worry about the price of spying on its main adversary?
Beijing now claims Washington has been using balloons to spy over China. I suppose that is possible, though the same question arises. Why would Washington, even not swimming in money, worry about the price of spying on its main adversary? If it has used balloons, where are the Chinese photos to demonstrate it?
The earthquakes
The earthquakes pose a far less immediate threat to Americans, but they are nevertheless worthy of far more attention than they are getting. They will certainly kill over the next several months many more people, as cold weather, collapsing buildings, and limited medical, food, and water supplies take their toll.
The failure of international assistance to reach northern Syria in a timely way is particularly troubling. Damascus is blaming Hayat Tahrir al Sham, an extremist Islamist group. But it is likely we won’t know the true story for some time to come. Certainly Damascus has no interest in seeing relief reach the millions of oppositionists it has herded into the northwest corner of Syria.
It is impossible to predict the broader consequences of the earthquakes and the inadequate response to them. Turkish President Erdogan faces an election in May. Syrian President Bashar al Assad does not have that problem, as even at the next election in 2028 he is unlikely to allow serious competition if he still remains in power. But both countries already face serious economic problems that the earthquakes are likely to exacerbate.
Consequences
The results are unlikely to be salubrious. The US/China rivalry was already getting overheated. It would be a mistake to allow concern over balloons make it much worse. What is needed now is a return to President Biden’s normal mode of operation: less drama, more diplomacy. It shouldn’t be hard to convince Beijing that the balloons are counterproductive if it wants to maintain some equilibrium in its relations with the US.
As for earthquake relief, the issue is more complicated. Turkey appears to be getting the help it needs and distributing it fairly. Syria however is taking all it can from the UN but distributing virtually none of it to the opposition population that inhabits part of the country’s northwest. There is no reason to believe it will change that habit. Only an aggressive cross-border relief operation from Turkey can avoid a major humanitarian disaster. The UN needs to find the courage to act, which is impossible when Russia and perhaps China oppose doing so in the Security Council.
So here, too, diplomacy may be part of the solution, but so far quiet diplomacy has not worked. Maybe more drama is needed to deal with Syria.
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Stevenson’s army, February 11
– Politico says administration is preparing defense budget bigger than this year.
– WSJ reports Moldova government collapse.
– WSJ says quake recovery is hurting Erdogan politically.
– Poll has new insights into extremists.
– AEI’s Kori Schake calls Biden foreign policy a “mess”
– RAND analysts lists Russian mistakes in Ukraine.
– RollCall notes how committees chairs bought votes.
– I mention tick-tock stories a lot. WSJ’s Ben Zimmer has derivation.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 9
– Sy Hersh says the US secretly destroyed the NordStream 2 pipeline. He says that public comments by Jake Sullivan and Victoria Nuland and Biden that NordStream wouldn’t go ahead if Russia invaded Ukraine allowed the administration to call it a secret military operation rather than a covert operation requiring notification of Congress. The White House denies the story, but Hersh typically has many, many plausible details.
– CNN says the Chinese balloon was noticed and cited in intelligence reports but they weren’t treated as significant.
– US says the balloon could collect communications signals.
– NYT details an expected executive order limiting US technology investments in China.
– Trump’s final Acting SecDef has given a strange interview to the Hill.
-In WOTR, four airmen offer lessons from the air war over Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 8
-WaPo reports on China’s vast surveillance programs-
-China’s balloon program was reported last year.
-WSJ reports China now has more ICBM launchers than US, though many are empty.
-SASC Chairman Reed says Ukraine has more urgent needs than F16s
–Russia threatens expulsions of US officials
-FT says Iran is now shipping Russian oil.
-Axios says US asked Israel & PA to “pause” actions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
– In WOTR, former student urges “learning culture”
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A decent agreement still seems far off
The US and EU are exterting a lot of pressure on Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti to agree to create an Association of Serb-majority Municipalities in negotiations with Serbian President Vucic. Kurti has set six conditions:
1. The association must be by the Constitution and laws in force in the Republic of Kosovo.
2. The association cannot be monoethnic, must change its name, cannot have/carry any public (or executive) power, and must only serve the horizontal cooperation of municipalities according to the Constitution and the law on local self-government (Chapter 5).
3. The association is part of the final agreement and is implemented after mutual recognition. And, in connection with the latter, only after Serbia accepts the principles of the UN Charter in its interstate relations with the Republic of Kosovo.
4. Before the establishment of the Association, the illegal structures of Serbia in the north of Kosovo are extinguished and all illegal weapons are handed over.
5. The rights of national minorities and the relevant protective mechanisms should strengthen the principle of reciprocity between the two respective states, as well as take into account European standards and models.
6. The President of Serbia withdraws the letters sent to five (and other) EU member states for not accepting the application of the Republic of Kosovo for EU membership (which also represents a violation of the same Thaçi-Dacic agreement of 19 April 2013).
One by one
These conditions are a step forward, even if they fall short of the Pristina proposal for the association that I have suggested. Let’s examine the conditions one by one.
- The requirement that any association conform to the Kosovo constitution is now well-establshed. As for Kosovo’s laws, I am not certain what conforming to them would entail. In any event, laws can be changed, if mutual interest requires it.
- Here too there is some consensus that the association should not be monoethnic. There are non-Serbs who live in Serb-majority municipalities. Municipalities in Kosovo have subsantial powers that in theory might be pooled through horizontal cooperation. But the powers should remain with the individual munipalities. I understand why the Prime Minister might like for the association to have a different name, but a rose by any other name smells just as sweet (or sour).
- This is a vital point. The association will pose a far lesser threat to Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity if it is implemented after Serbia has accepted that sovereignty and territorial integrity. I have no reason to believe that Serbia has accepted this point.
- Yes, creation of the association should be the occasion for disbanding all illegal structures and armed groups that Belgrade supports inside Kosovo. This should include all employees of the Serbian security services. All activities of Serbia inside Kosovo should become transparent and accountable.
- Yes again. Whatever Serbs get inside Kosovo Belgrade should offer inside Serbia to Albanian-majority municipalities. Reciprocity is the rule between states. Serbia has not accepted this point, to my knowledge.
- Serbia’s efforts to prevent Kosovo membership in international organizations, including the EU, will have to cease once an agreement is reached. Without this, there is no normalization.
Overall
I have no reason to believe that Belgrade is seriously considering meeting several of these conditions. Whether it does so will depend on pressures from Washington and Brussels. So far, the pressure on Belgrade has been sporadic and inconsistent. The Americans and Europeans fear pushing Serbia further into the philo-Russian, pro-China camp. The pressure on Pristina is high and unrelenting. I call it diplomatic bullying, undertaken because Kosovo has no alternative but to look West. Now that Prime Minister Kurti has met the Americans partway, I hope they will forget some of their resentments of his past. Most of his six conditions are eminently reasonable, though I would add a seventh: the US and EU should act as guarantors of any agreement, ensuring its good-faith implementation.
The problem is that Brussels and Washington are unlikely to be able to convince President Vucic to accept even the most reasonable of Kurti’s conditions. Vucic has intentionally stoked his nationalist opposition with a daily media diet of accusations and vituperation against Kosovo Albanians. He faces no serious threat from Serbia’s relatively small liberal democratic opposition. Nor does he see much upside to resolving the conflict with Kosovo. Serbia would then need to institute serious reforms in order to prepare itself for EU accession. Some of those reforms would pose political and judicial risks to Vucic’s hold on power.
I continue to hope I am wrong. But a decent agreement between Kosovo and Serbia still seems far off.
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Stevenson’s army, February 3
– US agreement with Philippines is a big deal.
– Meanwhile, NYT says China is gaining in Indonesia.
– US intelligence doubts Ukraine gain in Crimea.
– Russia may expand attacks.
– India boosts defense spending 13%.
– Senators want to block F16s to Turkey.
– In FP, Rand analysts discuss lessons from Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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