Tag: Russia
Stevenon’s army, January 2
Under federal law, 5 USC 6103, today is New Year’s Day, a federal holiday for pay and leave purposes, since January 1 was on a Sunday this year. Enjoy it!
Tomorrow, pursuant to the Constitution, the 118th Congress will assemble, take the oaths of office, and try to do business. CRS explains the procedures for the Senate and the House.
The biggest issue is whether Cong. Kevin McCarthy [R-CA] will get the 218 votes needed to become Speaker. His latest ploy is to issue a package of proposed rules for the House, including changes sought mainly by the Freedom Caucus. Here’s the press release. Here’s the detailed summary. Here’s the text.
In other news, NYT says Russia is still blocking most Ukrainian grain exports, worsening global starvation.
Politico says mail and early voting have benefits for both parties.
NYT also has analysis of new industrial policy for chip making.
Atlantic has a critique of a fascinating new book describing the indigenous tribal empires that fought each other and invading settlers in North America.
Charlie added a bit later:
Now that I’ve read through them, here are the most interesting changes proposed by leader McCarthy:
– The existing PAYGO rule requiring offsets of both spending increases and tax cuts is changed to prohibit only measures with the “net effect of increasing mandatory spending” over 5 or more years.
– Restores a former GOP rule requiring 3/5 vote to increase tax rates.
-Restores Holman rule allowing amendments specifically cutting the pay of government officials.
– Restores rule requiring CBO to consider macroeconomic effects of legislation.
– Creates new select committees on Strategic Competition with China and on “Weaponization of the Federal Government” [the latter as a Judiciary Subcommittee]
– Continues shared jurisdiction over cybersecurity but specifics Homeland Security Committee has jurisidiction over cybersecurity for DHS.
– Renames Oversight and Reform as the Committee on Oversight and Accountability and the Education and Labor Committee as Education and the Workforce.
– Strikes existing language allowing access to the Hall of the House by the DC major and governors of territories.
– Continues ban on access to House gym of former members who are registered lobbyists or foreign agents.
– Ends proxy voting and remote committee proceedings. Mask mandates and security screening for Members’ entry to the House floor are dropped.
The rule also includes rules for considering several top priority GOP bills on: IRS funding, taxpayer funded abortions, and POL exports to China.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 31
– CFR lists the big anniversaries coming in 2023.
– Dan Drezner gives his list of the best writing on political economy in 2022.
– NYT on effects of polling on the 2022 elections.
– Defense News on Sweden & Finland’s efforts to get into NATO.
– WOTR on Turkey’s policies toward Russia and Syria.
Best wishes for 2023. CS
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 30
I have a piece in the Hill about the NDAA.
I’ve been reading a lot lately about the foreign policy debates during 1939-43. In many ways, the emerging split in the GOP is like the earlier one.
David Brooks in NYT calls attention to several long articles during the year, including this about the generational split among progressive groups.
WaPo says Venezuelan opposition has given up on Guaido.
Belarus blames Ukraine for attack.
AP reports on today’s Xi-Putin talks.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 29
– E.J. Dionne interviews retiring Cong. David Price of NC, a superb lawmaker and scholar.
– Biden insists new GOP chairmen wait until they have authority to investigate.
– WaPo does deep dive into Ukrainian offensives on Kharkiv & Kherson.
– GW prof says we should stop viewing Middle East as a region.
– NYT says US is working to block Iranian drones for Russia.
– Congress notified of additional $180 million arms for Taiwan.
– Carlos Lozada sees themes in books about Trump.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Don’t let aggression by destabilization pay
Northern Kosovo is in its third week of chaos. Serb houligans block the roads, attack journalists, and shoot at police and KFOR troops. The houligans are not random thugs. Belgrade pays and controls many of them. Whatever the initial justifications for this rogue behavior, the net effect is to undermine the dialogue with Pristina and prevent serious consideration of the still unpublished and therefore hazy French-German proposal for interim “normalization.”
What Belgrade wants
What Belgrade wants is Pristina’s commitment to its much-vaunted Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASM) inside Kosovo. But the disorder is proving beyond any doubt that yielding on that point under current conditions would be disastrous for the Kosovo state. The powers behind the barricades would then become the powers running an institution the Kosovo state had recognized and accepted. It would be beyond foolish to do that. Not least because those powers are criminal and tied to Serbia’s secret services.
The US and EU should be embarrassed
This should embarrass all those American and European diplomats who have pushed the ASM. Prime among them is Gabe Escobar, the State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Western Balkans, but State Department Counselor Derek Chollet and EU Foreign and Security Policy chief Josep Borrell share in the ignominy. They thought giving Belgrade the ASM would moderate its views. That was foolhardy. What they got instead were Vucic’s efforts at destabilization. They also got a series of truly offensive tweets from his Prime Minister, aimed at the Germans and other Europeans. These include a push to deploy Serbian troops to Kosovo and make it clear Belgrade is uninterested for now in pursuing its declared ambition of EU membership.
What is to be done now
Hotter heads in Kosovo want KFOR to tear down the barricades, in cooperation with the Kosovo police. Unless carefully prepared and executed, that could make a first-rate mess and bring opprobrium on all involved. Far better, is to build up the forces in the north and negotiate an end to the disorder from a position of strength. Only if that negotiation fails should force be used, decisively and effectively. The ringleaders of the disorder should be arrested and either tried in Kosovo or expelled to Serbia, provided Belgrade promises convincingly to prosecute.
That is not enough
Europe and the US need to make it clear to Serbia that the promotion of disorder in Kosovo has consequences. I like Jasmin Mujanović‘s proposal:
Specifically, the 5 EU non-recognizers must see how they’re facilitating Serbia’s brinkmanship. Fully recognizing Kosovo’s sovereignty and allowing it to begin its EU/NATO membership processes is something the West can do today, req no input from Belgrade, Moocow, or Beijing.
This makes sense. Even if one or two of the non-recognizers were to proceed as Jasmin suggests it would make a big difference to Belgrade’s belligerency. This way or another, the West needs to show that destabilization is not in Serbia’s interests and should never be repeated.
Why should anyone care?
Even I find it hard to focus on Kosovo while Ukraine is suffering a Russian war of aggression. We should however care about Kosovo, because Vucic is pursuing in Kosovo Vladimir Putin’s 2014 strategy in Donbas. Putin was challenging Slobodan Milosevic’s 1993 strategy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Any ambiguity about the Western reaction in Kosovo will feed similar moves elsewhere. Vucic has chosen to align himself with Russia in the tradition of Milosevic. Aggression by destabilization anywhere cannot be allowed to pay.
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Stevenson’s army, December 21
– President Zelensky is coming to DC, will meet with President Biden around 2pm, address a joint meeting of Congress around 7:30pm. WaPo says the big news will be US deal to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Politico says Ukraine wants more than US is willing to give.
– WaPo says it’s still not clear who sabotaged Nordstream lines.
– Politico says US will press Netanyahu to discipline his government.
-Legistorm says 2/3 of House offices haven’t used their increased budgets.
– Politico has details from new insider look at Biden administration. Looks like a lot of good interviews.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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