Tag: Russia
Geopolitics after the Russian aggression
I was unable to travel to Pristina for this FAS Forum conference focused on implications for the Balkans today, but I provided a video and talking points for the occasion.
- It is a pleasure to join you remotely, much as I would have liked to be with you in person. But obligations here have kept me from traveling.
- I’ll make just three points.
Russia will lose
- First, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a serious blow not only to Ukraine but also to the existing world order. If Putin were to succeed, we would see more efforts of this sort in the future, including in the Balkans.
- The concept of the “Serbian World” is no less dangerous than the “Russian World.”
- Second, the Russians are on the path to a strategic defeat. Even if they were to win the war, or keep some Ukrainian territory, which is unlikely, they would lose the peace, as they haven’t got the resources or even the population required to rebuild Ukraine.
The right track is clear
- Third, those in the Balkans who are building liberal democracies and aiming for NATO and EU membership are on the right track and need to redouble their efforts.
- It would be a serious error to allow yourselves to be side-tracked into any effort that slows accession to the key Western institutions.
- That raises key questions about the Open Balkans initiative. Will it accelerate progress towards EU accession, or is it going to become an indefinite waiting room? Will it contribute to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all its participants, or will it favor the preferences of one?
So is the objective
- If, as I believe, Russia is defeated in Ukraine and forced back at least to its February 23 lines, if not all the way to its 2013 lines, EU enlargement will return as a serious proposition, if only because of Ukraine’s candidacy.
- I know how disappointing the EU’s performance in the Balkans has been. It has unjustifiably blocked even the visa waiver for Kosovo and accession talks for Albania.
- But that is all the more reason why those who want to be in the EU should not miss the political window next time it opens.
- Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will initiate that opportunity.
- It is not too early to begin preparing.
Not only rules but values
- In short, it means adopting European values, not only European rules and regulations.
- This is hard, not easy. Politicians even in democratic settings seek power and resist giving it up. You’ve seen that recently even in the United States.
- But going into opposition is a key role in any democratic system. It is the opposition that helps to ensure transparency and accountability.
- The institutions of the state should belong to no single political party. They need to serve, and hold accountable, whoever comes to power.
- To their credit, both Kosovo has seen peaceful alternation in power. May it ever be thus!
Autocracy will fail
- This is where autocracies like Russia and China fail.
- They mistake the strength of their temporary leaders for the strength of the state.
- That idea is suffering military defeat in Ukraine. Its defeat will open new opportunities in many parts of the world, but especially in the Balkans.
- Fortune favors the well-prepared. I hope you will be ready.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, October 22
– WaPo says Mar a Lago documents included sensitive materials about Iran and China.
– While I worry about a Russian attack from Belarus, NYT says officials doubt it.
– NYT lists other Ukrainian opportunities.
– NDAA amendment questions shift of SOCOM forces to Germany.
– SAIS prof Todd Harrison analyzes DOD 2023 budget.CFIUS announces new guidelines.
-Even Freedom Caucus wants return to “regular order.” See its critique of how the House runs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Support for Putin does not serve Belarusians
Miodrag Vlahovic, former Montenegrin ambassador to the Holy See and now president of the Montenegro Helsinki Committee, writes:
Alexander Lukashenko struggled to contain his anger as he gesticulated wildly at Vladimir Putin.
At a summit in the Black Sea city of Sochi last month, the tyrant of Belarus publicly reassured the tyrant of Russia not to worry about the hundreds of thousands of Russians who have fled the country since the Kremlin imposed partial conscription on its people.
What Belarus has lost
Lukashenko has some experience in this matter. He lost – and then stole – the election in his own country in 2020. Since then, Belarus has experienced significant brain drain, with thousands of Belarusian companies setting up shop in neighboring European countries.
“Alright 30,000, 50,000 (Russians) have fled,” Lukashenko advised Putin. “Let them leave. I do not know what you think about it, but I was not particularly worried when a few thousand left in 2020. They asked to go back, most of them want to go back. And these people are coming back.”
Unfortunately for the Belarusian economy and its remaining residents, this is not true.
Since Lukashenko ordered his secret police to overturn the peoples’ electoral will, more than 4,000 Belarusian small and medium sized businesses have relocated. They have gone mainly to countries inside the European Union, notably Poland. Many more have simply disappeared.
The details are dramatic
The crackdown has had a devastating effect on business confidence and inward investment. Leading Belarusian businessmen took fright, particularly those involved in the Hi-Tech Park (HTP). It was once one of the leading innovative technology clusters in Central and Eastern Europe.
For years, there was an unspoken contract between the Belarusian regime and an IT sector that funded so much of the country’s growth. We do not touch you, and you do not meddle in politics. The stolen 2020 election has disintegrated that tacit agreement.
Viktor Prokopenya, a Belarus-born fintech entrepreneur, criticized the assaults on democratic protestors. He then moved currency.com, a global web and app based trading platform that disrupted traditional finance, out of the country. Viktor Kisly, the billionaire chief executive of Wargaming, the company behind the popular online game World of Tanks; Arkady Dobkin, the owner of EPAM; Mikhail Chuprinsky, founder of robot manufacturer Rozum Robotics; and Mikita Mikado, CEO of PandaDoc, which provides document automation software, quickly followed.
The damage will be longterm
I know the damage that an exodus of humans and capital can do to a country’s prospects. I was foreign minister of Montenegro when it re-gained its independence in 2006, later becoming our first ambassador to the United States.
By the time we gained independence, the bitter Balkans War of the 1990s had wrought a devastating toll on the economies of south-eastern Europe, Montenegro included.
Figures from the World Bank suggest we lost around 12% of our population. Many of the emigrants were highly-educated managers, professionals, scientists, researchers, and technicians, together with young people striving for better training, education, careers and living prospects.
Montenegro is still feeling the effects today. The “brain drain” has undermined local democracy and social cohesion. Unemployment is around 15% – more than twice as high as the EU average.
This year’s Russian aggression on Ukraine and the effects of Western sanctions on Belarus – Russia’s key ally – have made Lukashenko’s reassurance to Putin in Sochi even more dubious.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, the outflow of businesses and entrepreneurs from Belarus has grown rapidly. In June alone, the number of newly registered businesses in Poland backed with Belarusian capital amounted to 254 companies. Last month, Polish president Andrzej Duda said that 150,000 Belarusians have received asylum and work in Poland, including thousands of protesters.
Back in Belarus, it is estimated that up to 80% of the vital IT industry will disappear. According to experts, this will cause a 4% drop in GDP.
If Lukashenko continues to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine then Belarus will continue to suffer gravely. The president of Germany’s digital association Bitkom recently admitted: “By bringing IT specialists from Russia and Belarus to us, the aggressor will be noticeably weakened.”
Ominous signs
The latest signs are ominous. In recent days, Lukashenko has said that Belarus and Russia are to deploy a joint military group and that thousands of Russian troops will be arriving in his country for drills.
It is extremely unlike the tyrant of Minsk will reconsider, opt for peace and start making decisions that support the citizens of his own country – and not Putin and Russian aggression on Ukraine.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s aramy, October 19
– Sen. Leahy gets cut in Egypt aid.
– Senate likely to add $10 Billion for Taiwan.
– WaPo has more on retired officers working for foreign countries, this time UAE.
– GOP leader McCarthy says no blank check for Ukraine aid.
– NYT reports men missing from Moscow.
– I have some comments about new book on GOP.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, October 17
– Mail-in voting rules may affect midterms.
– 28% of election-denier candidates are veterans, War Horse reports.
– Intercept reports on AIPAC election efforts.
– Belarus may be next Russian front, WSJ reports.
– Hill says Russia may conduct pre-election cyber attacks.
Charlie added later:
These can’t wait until Tuesday:
– New Yorker has excellent article on evolution of US support to Ukraine’s military.
– WSJ says US wants to keep B-52s in service.
– Max Boot says Israel-Lebanon agreement is a big win for Biden.
– Alice Hunt Friend says we don’t have standards on how civilians are supposed to do civ-mil relations.
– FP article details how JFK lied about Adlai Stevenson and the Cuba missile deal.
– National Security Archive has more on this.
A question for you: when did YOU learn that JFK had lied and actually made the Turkish missile removal part of the deal?
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, October 16
– NYT says many veterans now running for Congress aren’t centrists, but are pro-Trump anti-interventionists.
– Atlantic has an excerpt from another new book about January 6 with great detail about how the congressional leadership acted that day.
– Lawfare analyzes new executive order on signals intelligence.-
– Dan Drezner analyzes Putin’s decisions.
– NYT says Erdogan threatens Greece.
Charlie offered this yesterday:
– Carl Hulse wonder why so many Senators are leaving.
– GOP tries to block State’s “China House.”
– GOP wants to investigate think tanks.
– Scott Sagan has wise ideas for preventing a nuclear war.WSJ says Xi prepares for conflict with US
– Belarus under pressure to help Russia more.
– SAIS prof Paula Thornhill says civilians will decide Marine Corps future.
– State wants help from Silicon Valley.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
