Tag: Russia
Stevenson’s army, October 7
– GOP promises China focus if they control House.
– China blocks UN criticism of its human rights policies.
– Josh Rogin wants limits on lobbying by foreign dictators.
– WaPo says US intelligence reported direct criticism of Putin.
– NYT reports abuses by Mexican military.
– Axios reports anarchy in Haiti.
– CNN reports criticism of Havana syndrome investigations.
– CNN notes infrastructure bill opponents who now want the money.
– Why would a sitting US Senator want to quit to be a university president?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, sometimes adding videos. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 5
– Two civ-mil analysts use cases to explain why civilians defer to military advice.-
– Foreign policy analysts warn against declaring Russia a terrorist supporting state.
– A retired colonel says our 4 star officers need replacement.
– A retired Marine colonel says cable news shows should be banned on military bases.
-A Carnegie analyst says bad relations between Germany and Poland are hurting Ukraine.
– BBC notes criticism of Russian military by Russians.
– WSJ says Russia is using Iranian drones very effectively.
– Fred Kaplan says Musk’s “peace plan” won’t work now.
Then Charlie added:
Why wait? These are interesting.
US & Europe are trying to get an anti-Russia vote in the UN General Assembly.
Erdogan might be getting ready for war with Greece.
FP says US is cracking down on Paraguay.
CRS says NDAA may contain provisions on cyber personnel.
National Security Archive touts its document file on Cuban missile crisis.
And I was wrong in class about PAYGO. It’s still on the books, has been routinely cancelled each year, but this fall faces a $100 billion automatic sequester unless Congress agrees to cancel it again.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Empty annexations won’t make an empire
I’ve been out of commission for ten days or so. Peacefare was also down for a few days. But both of us are back now and trying to catch up.
The big news is clear: Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Kyiv has forced Moscow’s retreat both in the northeast and to a lesser extent in the south. Russia’s hold on remaining occupied territory is precarious, though stronger in the south than in the the northeast. The Wagner group, a supposedly private security force reporting directly to the Kremlin, has proven much more reliable there than the regular Russian army and even than the Donbas proxies elsewhere.
Doubling down
Putin’s reaction is to double down. He has ordered a partial mobilization that has driven tens of thousands of Russians out of their country. He has also signed a piece of paper claiming to annex four Ukrainian provinces, though Russian forces control only a portion of them. The annexation is nominally a response to fake referenda conducted among the way fewer than 50% of the population of those provinces actually under Russian control. Russian troops carried the ballot boxes door to door and asked people to vote at gunpoint. Moscow claims to have annexed largely empty territory it is incapable of repopulating.
Ukraine has doubled down as well. Its army continues to perform far beyond expectations. Newly armed and amply inspired, it is taking territory at a fast pace. Kyiv has also submitted an application for NATO membership. That is unlikely to be approved before Russia is driven completely from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Even then there will be opposition inside the Alliance. But it signals the realignment that Putin has incentivized. It would be hard to convince any Ukrainian loyal to Ukraine that NATO membership is not in Ukraine’s interest. Even if Ukraine never accedes, it will be aligned with NATO in the future.
Shrinking war aims
Despite doubling down, Moscow has shrunk its war aims. Putin has abandoned for now his original objective, the conquest of Kyiv and the absorption of all of Ukraine into an extended Russian empire. He won’t be able to absorb all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson either:
The parts of Luhansk and Donetsk that were under Moscow’s control from 2014 until this year did not fare well under Russian rule. Any territory that remains under Russian control when a ceasefire some day takes effect will be depopulated and depressed. Even if Putin wins, those whom he governs will lose.
More modest but sustainable ambition is needed
Putin conceives of himself as engaged in a global struggle against a perverse, exploitative, and violent West. He is losing that struggle not only on the battlefield in Ukraine but also throughout Europe and in the democratic Far East. Even India and China are distancing themselves. His confidence in the 1000-year Russian state is grossly overwrought. Russia is a second-rate petro power with nuclear weapons he knows it can’t use without precipitating a catastrophic response. It is time for Russians to wake up and do what they know needs doing: get rid of him and his coterie and return Russia to a more modest but sustainable ambition.
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The West has no alternative
Russian President Putin today announced a partial mobilization, insisted on referenda in the territories Russia occupies in Ukraine, as a prelude to annexation, and threatened the West with nuclear weapons. In the wake of Ukraine’s successful offensive in the northeast region of Kharkiv, Moscow is doubling down.
No surprise, but still signficant
Putin’s speech is no surprise. He desperately needs more cannon fodder to fight in Ukraine. He has likely lost to death and injury about 75,000 troops in 7 months, more than America’s losses in both Afghanistan and Iraq over 20 years. The referenda had been scheduled previously and postponed due to the precarious military situation. Putin has previously threatened the use of nuclear weapons.
But the message is wider than any of these items. Putin is preparing to sacrifice the entire Russian army to gain a few provinces in Ukraine. He sees himself at war not only with Ukraine but with the West, which he blames for provoking him into attacking Ukraine. After months of telling the Russian people they could continue their normal lives during his Special Military Operation, now he is asking for extraordinary sacrifices.
Not much there there
A lot depends on how the Russian’s citizens react. So far, most have ignored the war, while some have fled Russia and others have urged Putin on and even volunteered for service in Ukraine. The reservists Putin is calling up may or may not appear for duty. The sanctions, which so far have caused relatively little real pain, may begin to bite. But the Russian pain threshold is high. They’ve had a lot of practice.
There is no doubt about the outcome of the referenda. Putin doesn’t believe in real choice when voting. They are nevertheless important, as once Moscow annexes the Russian occupied territories Putin will claim they are integral parts of the Russian Federation. Ukrainian attacks will therefore provoke a less “special operation” response.
The nuclear weapons threat is an empty one. Ukrainian forces aren’t concentrated in ways that would make them vulnerable to giant explosions. If nevertheless Putin proceeded, he should understand the Western response would be disproportional and devastating.
The best outcome is Russian defeat
Putin’s speech leaves the West with little alternative. Restraining the Ukrainians now would no doubt please Putin, but it wouldn’t get him withdraw. Pushing the Russians back to the February 23 lines would no longer be a satisfactory outcome. From the Western perspective, the best outcome of this dreadful war is a complete and unequivocal Russian defeat.
That is possible. The Ukrainians have shown skill and determination under extraordinarily difficult conditions. The Russian hold on Donetsk is precarious. Kherson is vulnerable.
Another major loss of territory like the blue area near Kharkiv would dramatically undermine Putin’s credibility. So too would a split in the territory the Russians control along the Sea of Azov.
Ukrainians have the initiative
Winter is coming, but there are still several months of fighting season ahead. The Ukrainians have seized the initiative. They merit wholehearted support against an enemy that calls them Nazis but itself resembles the Third Reich moving into the Sudetenland. Putin, unlike Hitler, is losing his war of aggression. That’s good. The West has no alternative but to support his opponents.
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Stevenson’s army, September 21
– David Ignatius says UN is getting things right.-
– SAIS Prof Hal Brands says Russia & China are gaining in the global South.
– Russians think they can win in Ukraine.
– Eliot Cohen wants more aid to pressure a cornered Putin. [FWIW, I think Cohen ignores the dangers of a nuclear confrontation.]
– WSJ has long article arguing that a “ragtag army” stopped the Russian attack on Kyiv.
– CSIS promotes its “Civics for Adults.”
– JCS history office says concerns about repealing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” proved unfounded.
– House GOP split on spending bill. Senate likely to take up NDAA in rare October session.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 18
– NYT says Biden resists sending longer range missiles to Ukraine.
– NYT says autocrats are gaining in Central America.
– Here’s a link to a 2013 study of how Members of Congress spend their time.
– And, if true, a very sad phone call.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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